Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impressive performance of the Zhongtai Tianze Stable 6-Month Holding Mixed Fund (FOF), which has achieved a net value growth rate of 7.40% since its establishment on March 21, 2023, outperforming its benchmark by 3.21% [2] Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategy - The fund manager, Tang Jun, emphasizes the importance of asset allocation over merely selecting outstanding fund managers, focusing on forming allocation views first and then selecting the best funds to implement those views [2] - Tang Jun utilizes a macro analysis framework for risk budgeting, similar to Bridgewater's risk parity model, but with a personalized approach that allows for differentiated risk allocation based on his views [3][5] - The strategic asset allocation is based on a "monetary-credit" analysis framework, which influences long-term configuration, while tactical asset allocation focuses on short-term opportunities based on market sentiment and funding conditions [5][9] Group 2: Return Streams and Risk Assessment - The concept of "return streams" is highlighted, where having 15-20 independent return streams can significantly reduce risk without compromising expected returns [6] - The manager assesses the correlation of asset classes with existing portfolios for risk evaluation, rather than relying solely on the inherent risk of asset classes [6] - The selection of funds involves a rigorous style decomposition process to evaluate the fund's alpha performance after removing style beta influences [7] Group 3: Gold and Market Outlook - Gold is maintained as a strategic core holding due to its recognition as a global currency amidst concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [8] - The article outlines potential strategies based on macroeconomic drivers, such as domestic credit expansion and overseas dollar liquidity, which will influence future asset allocation decisions [9] - The performance of US tech stocks, particularly in relation to AI technology trends, is identified as a key factor for future market movements [9]

今日的A股，节前最后的洗盘了。三大指数跌幅不多，股票有4000家下跌。港股回调，A股的科技股跟着回调了。 这个位置，节前离场的意义有限，为什么还会有人卖？无非是利用小长假的恐慌情绪洗盘，去年的端午节后的A股续下跌了，今年也会如此吗？ 对于接下来的行情，短线继续空仓，你也不用看下去了。中长线做好仓位管理、资产配置就行了。 系好安全带 目前的震荡虽然幅度很小，来来回回坐电梯很影响情绪，好不容易红盘了几个点，5月份又跌回去了。大家的情况都差不多，没有必要内耗。 股市的利润肯定不容易，如果容易就没有人上班了。低吸没耐心，追涨没技术，稳健的银行股收股息又不甘心，在股市怎么可能有利润。 不怕震荡，系好安全带就行了，6月底之前没有拉升，9月底之前也有希望，无非是3个月时间罢了，多点耐心就行。在股市的利润很难，很难！ 成交量放大了，昨日上涨有很多空单需要套利，目前的A股就是如此，只要涨了就有ETF衍生品做空、量化交易等。关键是散户又没有这些工具，所以很难 受了。 A股会有新一轮行情了 5月份已经结束了，无论盈亏都不重要了，关键是6月可期。个人对接下来的行情很乐观，反复洗盘肯定不是为了急跌，市场的白酒、地产、证券都独立回调 了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of recent global tariff issues on capital markets and emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies for individuals and families to achieve stable wealth growth in uncertain environments [1] Group 1: Role of Insurance in Asset Allocation - Hong Kong serves as a unique hub for global asset allocation, particularly in the insurance sector, due to its diverse financial products and effective regulatory framework [2] - Savings-type insurance (participating insurance) in Hong Kong offers risk protection and can counter currency fluctuations, making it an attractive investment option [2] - Insurance should primarily be viewed as a protective measure rather than an investment vehicle, with a focus on its risk management capabilities [2][3] Group 2: Unique Advantages of Participating Insurance - Participating insurance provides long-term benefits and can generate compound interest, allowing for global asset allocation and risk diversification [4] - The product can help address future financial needs such as retirement and education funding, and it can also facilitate wealth transfer [4] Group 3: Suitability of Participating Insurance - Participating insurance is best suited for long-term investors, with a recommendation to hold the policy for at least 15 years to avoid significant losses [5] - Individuals should plan their insurance allocations based on personal circumstances, with an emphasis on early planning for retirement and financial security [5] Group 4: Choosing Participating Insurance - Selecting a reputable insurance provider is crucial, as different companies have varying methods for calculating dividends and assessing product performance [6][7] - Historical stability and experience of the insurance company are important factors, as demonstrated by Prudential's resilience through financial crises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rising costs of living in various cities, particularly focusing on public transportation fare increases and utility price hikes, indicating a shift in economic dynamics where traditional funding mechanisms are no longer sustainable [4][7][14]. Group 1: Public Transportation Pricing - Cities like Chongqing, Kunming, and Guangzhou are initiating fare increases for public transportation, signaling a broader trend across urban areas [2][3]. - The financial strain on public transportation systems is evident, with Chongqing's metro receiving a subsidy of 4.35 billion yuan and Beijing 24.85 billion yuan, yet still facing deficits [7]. - The previous model of "land financing" for metro systems is failing as real estate sales decline, forcing cities to rely on fare increases for operational sustainability [8][9]. Group 2: Cost of Living and Inflation - The article highlights that while housing prices have decreased, the cost of living is rising, leading to a perception of financial strain among households [4][5]. - The adjustment of utility prices is linked to government fiscal pressures, as subsidies diminish when land sales decline [14][15]. - The government is signaling a need to address low prices in essential services to prevent deflationary pressures, which could undermine market confidence [16]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Rising prices in essential services like transportation and utilities are expected to impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential increases of 0.2-0.4 percentage points for CPI and 0.5-1 percentage points for PPI if utility prices rise by 4%-8% [17]. - The article suggests that the current inflation is not widespread but concentrated in unavoidable expenses, leading to a mismatch between stagnant income growth and rising living costs [19][20]. - The focus of asset allocation is shifting from high returns to stable cash flow assets, as households seek to manage cash flow amidst rising living costs [24][29].

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Market Overview - The high-end residential market in Shanghai continues to show strong performance despite an overall adjustment in the real estate market, with several luxury projects selling out quickly [1][2] - In May, multiple high-end properties in prime locations experienced significant demand, reflecting a strong appetite from high-net-worth individuals for quality assets [2][3] Sales Performance - Notable sales include the sale of 88 villas at Runyun Jinmao Mansion in 36 minutes, generating sales of 1.45 billion yuan [1] - Poly Haoyue Bund 98 sold 223 units on the same day with a subscription rate of 248% [2] - The total sales for Sunac One in Shanghai reached 4.025 billion yuan from 64 units sold, with a cumulative sales figure exceeding 10.871 billion yuan [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Data from Tongce Research Institute indicates a significant decline in the supply and sales of luxury homes, with new supply dropping by 65% and transactions down by 31% year-on-year [3] - The luxury market is experiencing structural supply-demand mismatches, leading to increased competition among certain product types [4][10] Buyer Demographics - The buyer profile for luxury homes is diversifying, with a notable increase in buyers from Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, as well as international buyers [7][8] - The demand is driven by high-net-worth individuals seeking to hedge against inflation and preserve wealth through core assets [8] Policy Impact - Recent policy changes in Shanghai, including relaxed purchase restrictions and support for multi-child families, have stimulated demand in the real estate market [9] - The market has shown positive price movements, with new residential prices rising by 0.5% and second-hand prices by 0.1% in April [9] Product and Marketing Strategies - Developers are focusing on high-quality offerings, with significant upgrades in product design and materials for luxury homes priced between 20 million to 50 million yuan [9] - Innovative marketing strategies, such as targeting specific demographics like artists and celebrities, have contributed to the success of certain projects [9] Competitive Landscape - There is a notable gap in the supply of high-end flat products, leading buyers to consider villa options despite their higher prices [10][12] - The competition among luxury products is intensifying, particularly for villas priced between 30 million to 40 million yuan, as developers adjust pricing strategies to attract buyers [12][13]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of stability in wealth accumulation, highlighting the National Social Security Fund's (NSSF) consistent performance and investment strategies as a model for individual asset allocation [1][2]. Group 1: NSSF Performance and Strategy - The NSSF achieved a positive return in 2023, with an average annual investment return of 7.36% since its establishment in August 2000, accumulating a total investment return of 1,682.576 billion yuan [1][2]. - The asset allocation of the NSSF is categorized into three main types: equity assets, bank deposits and government bonds, and corporate and financial bonds, with specific allocation limits [2]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Framework - A scientific asset allocation method suitable for ordinary users includes four key steps: defining aggressive investment limits, dynamic management of equity positions, balanced style allocation, and continuous product optimization [2][3]. - The TREE asset allocation system by China Merchants Bank focuses on the first two steps, providing personalized recommendations based on clients' wealth stages and risk levels [2]. Group 3: AI Optimization and Tools - The Tianchen AI optimization system addresses the latter two steps, ensuring a comprehensive investment approach that adapts to market changes by optimizing portfolio structures [3]. - The system allows for a balanced style and product optimization, helping clients manage their investments more effectively [3]. Group 4: Practical Solutions for Ordinary Investors - For individuals with limited funds, dynamic asset allocation can be challenging; thus, utilizing professional tools and systems is recommended to simplify the process [4]. - The TREE Changying Plan is an example of a comprehensive asset allocation solution that employs a fund-of-funds (FOF) strategy to achieve stable performance [5][6]. Group 5: Investment Knowledge and Mindset - Investment is not solely dependent on the amount of money available; understanding asset allocation is crucial regardless of the investment size [7]. - Individuals should categorize their funds into functional and investment accounts, ensuring that their financial needs are met before engaging in investment activities [7].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes that asset allocation is the "free lunch" of investing, as it significantly contributes to long-term investment returns while minimizing risks and volatility [2][11] - The article highlights that 90% of investment returns come from successful asset allocation, while timing and stock selection contribute less than 10% [2] - Common pitfalls for investors include chasing high-performing funds, being unable to withstand volatility, and over-concentration in a single asset class [2] Group 2 - The "Three Moats" of asset allocation are based on three dimensions: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [3] - Asset diversification involves investing in low-correlation assets such as stocks, bonds, and commodities to optimize risk-return profiles [3] - Market diversification allows investors to bet on the future of different economies, such as China's manufacturing upgrades, the U.S.'s technological innovations, and emerging markets' demographic advantages [4][5] Group 3 - Time diversification through regular investment (e.g., dollar-cost averaging) helps investors avoid emotional decision-making and reduces trading errors [6] - The first step for ordinary investors is to clarify their goals and risk tolerance, which includes determining expected returns, maximum drawdown, and investment horizon [7] - The second step involves selecting underlying assets and funds, focusing on both beta returns from broad indices and alpha returns from quality active funds [8] Group 4 - The third step is dynamic rebalancing, which involves periodic adjustments to maintain target asset allocations and optimizing based on valuation and market sentiment [9] - The essence of asset allocation is to serve life goals, such as retirement savings and wealth growth, rather than being an end in itself [10] - The article concludes with a quote from Warren Buffett, emphasizing the importance of not putting all eggs in one basket and finding a robust framework for investment [10]

红利低波ETF长城拟任基金经理陶曙斌表示，在全球宏观不确定性增加、市场利率持续下台阶、市场分 红生态改善等多重因素共振下，红利投资行情值得持续期待。 为了助力投资者更高效捕捉红利行情，继推出长城中证红利低波100指数基金后，长城基金在5月26日再 度发行同款场内产品——红利低波ETF长城（代码：159228），为投资者提供更多样化的配置选择，满 足场内红利投资需求。 据介绍，该基金以中证红利低波100指数为跟踪标的，与其它红利指数相比，中证红利低波100指数对样 本股的选择更为严格，从流动性、高分红、低波动三方面层层筛选，在着眼于企业分红质量的同时，尽 量过滤高波动股票的尾部风险，有望兼具长期收益和风险控制。 近期，为支持稳市场稳预期，央行正式宣布降准0.5个百分点、降息0.1个百分点。随着市场利率中枢进 一步下行，稳健类理财产品的预期回报也随之走低，红利资产再受关注——5月7日国新办新闻发布会 后，红利低波100指数（指数代码：930955）连续多个交易日上涨。 事实上，在近年来经济温和复苏、利率持续低位的宏观环境下，红利资产股息率与市场无风险收益率之 间的差值持续扩大，红利资产变得"越来越香"。Wind数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent trend of banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, lowering deposit rates has prompted a swift response from city commercial banks, leading to concerns among depositors about potential losses in interest income [1][5]. Group 1: Deposit Rate Adjustments - Multiple small and medium-sized banks have reduced their deposit rates, with Shanghai Huari Bank lowering its rates for various terms, including a 10 basis point reduction for 3-year deposits to 2.4% [5]. - Agricultural Bank of Shanghai and Beijing Bank have also adjusted their rates, with significant reductions across various terms, indicating a broader trend of rate cuts among banks [5][8]. - The average reduction in deposit rates has been greater than the reduction in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), reflecting banks' efforts to protect their net interest margins [8][10]. Group 2: Investor Reactions and Strategies - Individual investors, like a woman from Hangzhou, express frustration over missing out on higher interest rates due to the timing of rate cuts, highlighting the emotional impact of these financial decisions [2][3]. - Financial advisors suggest that in a low-interest-rate environment, investors should consider diversifying their asset allocation beyond traditional bank deposits to include higher-yielding products such as money market funds and bonds [10][11]. - Experts recommend that households reduce their reliance on bank deposits and explore options like large-denomination certificates of deposit and structured deposits for better returns [11].