Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **General Situation**: The report analyzes the supply - demand, price trends, and influencing factors of the rapeseed - related products (rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal) in both domestic and international markets. It points out that the prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil are affected by multiple factors such as international market trends, domestic supply - demand, and policy - related uncertainties [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: In the international market, the good weather in the US soybean - producing areas leads to a high expected yield, and the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China increases the supply of soybean meal, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. However, the upcoming peak season of aquaculture boosts the demand for rapeseed meal, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens this demand. The price of rapeseed meal may fluctuate in the short - term [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Internationally, the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and the decline in exports put pressure on the market. Domestically, the off - season of oil consumption, high inventory of rapeseed oil in factories, and the weakening of rapeseed in the international market drag down the price of domestic rapeseed oil. Although the decline in factory operating rates and the small number of rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may support the price, the short - term volatility of rapeseed oil may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices of active contracts for rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and domestic rapeseed all decreased. The prices of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal were 9404 yuan/ton and 2655 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decrease of 20 yuan/ton and 4 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 68 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 12 yuan/ton to 343 yuan/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil decreased by 2216 lots to 14433 lots, while that of rapeseed meal increased by 9308 lots to 14223 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3510, and that of rapeseed meal decreased by 2380 to 10086 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9540 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2560 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased by 70 yuan/ton to 9580 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The oil - meal ratio decreased by 0.05 to 3.64. The spot price spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 1340 yuan/ton, and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 770 yuan/ton. The spot price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 270 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast increased by 0.21 million tons to 89.77 million tons. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed decreased by 15.37 tons to 33.55 tons, and the import cost of rapeseed decreased by 6.55 yuan/ton to 4887.11 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills increased by 5 tons to 20 tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 2.67% to 9.86% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Imports and Inventories**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 10 tons to 34 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 4.13 tons to 28.79 tons. The weekly inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased by 0.72 tons to 9.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 1.05 tons to 1.51 tons [2]. - **Inventory in Different Regions**: The inventory of rapeseed oil in the East China region decreased by 0.68 tons to 59.27 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 2.46 tons to 38.04 tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil in the Guangxi region decreased by 0.3 tons to 6.9 tons, and that of rapeseed meal in the South China region decreased by 1.1 tons to 28.2 tons [2]. - **提货 Volume**: The weekly提货 volume of rapeseed oil increased by 1.18 tons to 3.29 tons, and that of rapeseed meal increased by 0.14 tons to 2.46 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Production and Consumption**: The monthly production of feed increased by 98.1 tons to 2762.1 tons, and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased by 411.2 billion yuan to 4578.2 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil decreased by 87 tons to 440.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, with the call option increasing by 1.25% to 19.42% and the put option increasing by 1.41% to 19.43%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil also increased, both by about 1% [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal decreased by 0.08% to 14.6%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 1.12% to 16.79%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.44% to 11.38%, and the 60 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.02% to 13.17% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - **Rapeseed Futures**: On Monday, Canadian rapeseed futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed lower, with the benchmark contract down 0.1%. The prices of different contracts decreased by 0.1 - 1.3 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - **Soybean Situation**: As of July 13, 2025, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week and higher than the analyst's expectation. The concentrated arrival of imported soybeans in China led to a high operating rate of oil mills and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal [2]. - **Palm Oil Situation**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased by 2.41% to 203 tons at the end of June, and the export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 15 decreased [2]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch - **Data**: The rapeseed operating rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in different regions released by Myagric on Monday are important data to watch [2]. - **Trade Disputes**: The development of trade disputes between China and Canada, and between Canada and the US may affect the rapeseed market [2].

1. Core Views - For rapeseed meal, the current stage of Canadian rapeseed growth is "weather - dominated". The reduction of hot weather and beneficial rainfall in the Canadian plains this week bring pressure. Domestically, with the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans, the oil - mill operating rate is at a high level, and the short - term supply is loose, suppressing the price of the rapeseed meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter ship purchases supports the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The market is waiting for news on Sino - US trade negotiations. Recently, rapeseed meal has risen and may remain volatile in the short term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, although the production of Malaysian palm oil declines against the seasonal pattern, the unexpected drop in export data makes the MPOB report bearish. High - frequency data shows that the export improvement from July 1 - 10 provides some support, and the rebound of international oil prices also supports the oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills is high, which restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The uncertainty of third - quarter rapeseed purchases and the potential tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may affect future rapeseed exports to China. Affected by the weakening of Canadian rapeseed, rapeseed oil has declined in a volatile manner and may continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 9424 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the futures closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2659 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan; the futures closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 683 Canadian dollars/ton, down 0.9 Canadian dollars; the futures closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5099 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Positions**: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 81 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (9 - 1) is 355 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 16649 lots, up 1298 lots; for rapeseed meal, they are 4915 lots, up 6885 lots. The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil are 256301 lots, and for rapeseed meal are 560897 lots [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3510 sheets, and for rapeseed meal is 12466 sheets [2]. 2.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9610 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil is 9650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the import cost of imported rapeseed is 4893.66 yuan/ton, down 30.48 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The oil - meal ratio is 3.69, down 0.02; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 171 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 109 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1400 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 810 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 2.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast for the year is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200 thousand tons, up 50 thousand tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 9.86%, down 2.67 percentage points. The imported rapeseed crushing profit is 304 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [2]. 2.4 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92.9 thousand tons, down 7.2 thousand tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 15.1 thousand tons, up 10.5 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 592.7 thousand tons, down 6.8 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 355.8 thousand tons, down 13.2 thousand tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 69 thousand tons, down 3 thousand tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 293 thousand tons, down 8 thousand tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 21.1 thousand tons, down 8.9 thousand tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 23.2 thousand tons, down 11.6 thousand tons [2]. 2.5 Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981 thousand tons; the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2]. 2.6 Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.17%, up 0.72 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.02%, up 0.56 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 12.45%, down 0.13 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 12.48%, down 0.1 percentage points [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 0.49%; the 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 11.82%, down 2.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.19%, down 0.3 percentage points [2]. 2.7 Industry News - On July 11th, ICE rapeseed futures closed lower due to the improved weather conditions in the Canadian plains. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract closed down 2.40 Canadian dollars at 682.70 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 2.50 Canadian dollars to 691.10 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending July 6, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, in line with market expectations, the same as the previous week and lower than 68% in the same period last year. The current weather in US soybean - producing areas is good, and the good - to - excellent rate is relatively high. The US tariff issue may damage the downstream demand for US soybeans and restrict the market price [2]. 2.8 Key Points of Concern - Monitor the rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions released by myagric on Monday, as well as the development of Sino - Canadian and Canada - US trade disputes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ICE canola futures closed lower on June 27 due to Trump's announcement of terminating all trade negotiations with Canada. The most actively traded November canola contract settled down 18.60 Canadian dollars at 692.90 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of U.S. soybeans was 66%, lower than the market - expected 67%. The good condition of U.S. soybeans and favorable weather continue to constrain the U.S. soybean market [2]. - The Canadian government's order to Hikvision Canada may tighten China - Canada economic and trade relations, potentially affecting canola exports to China. The 2025 canola planting area in Canada was revised down, and the current growth of Canadian canola is in the "weather - dominated" stage [2]. - In the domestic market, the arrival of imported soybeans has increased the oil mill operating rate, putting pressure on the meal market. For rapeseed meal, the aquaculture peak season has increased demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The futures price rebounded due to short - covering [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high inventory of oil mills continues to constrain the market price. Affected by the decline of Canadian canola, rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed lower, with increased short - term volatility [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9415 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2572 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 56 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal was 271 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The position of the main rapeseed oil contract was 299,277 lots, down 20,126 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract was 577,028 lots, down 16,073 lots [2]. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil was 27,227 lots, up 3997 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 23,547 lots, up 12,269 lots [2]. - The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 100, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 20,860, down 684 [2]. - The closing price of ICE canola futures (active) was 698.7 Canadian dollars/ton, down 11.5 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 4949 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9650 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2470 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. - The average price of rapeseed oil was 9670 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5045.75 yuan/ton, down 106.45 yuan [2]. - The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.84, up 0.01 [2]. - The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 184 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was - 102 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan [2]. - The spot price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing was 8210 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1390 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. 3.3 Substitute Spot Prices - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2840 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global canola production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - The total rapeseed import volume was 33.55 million tons, down 15.37 million tons; the import rapeseed crushing profit was 202 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2]. - The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, down 5 million tons; the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 34 million tons, up 10 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 28.79 million tons, up 4.13 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 11.15 million tons, down 1.05 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal areas was 1.1 million tons, up 0.09 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region was 61.59 million tons, down 1.46 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the East China region was 36.83 million tons, down 0.41 million tons [2]. - The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region was 6.9 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region was 30.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons [2]. - The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 2.81 million tons, down 0.73 million tons; the weekly提货量 of rapeseed meal was 2.87 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed was 2664 million tons, down 113.2 million tons; the monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail was 4167 billion yuan, down 68 billion yuan [2]. - The monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 million tons, down 87 million tons [2]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 19.41%, down 0.51%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 19.42%, down 0.51% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.94%, down 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 21.4%, down 0.16% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.16%, down 0.57%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, down 0.57% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 15.17%, down 0.19%; the 60 - day historical volatility was 14.88%, down 0.09% [2].

Group 1 - The meeting between China's Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao and Canada's Minister of International Trade Mary Ng focused on pragmatic and candid discussions regarding China-Canada economic and trade relations [1] - Both parties addressed the importance of maintaining a multilateral trading system and discussed various economic and trade issues of mutual concern [1]