Core Viewpoint - The key issue in resolving the contradiction between strong supply and weak demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period lies in distribution, necessitating significant breakthroughs in optimizing the distribution structure [2] Group 1: Distribution and Economic Growth - The supply structure is a function of the demand structure, which in turn is a function of the income structure; a low proportion of resident income in national income leads to low consumption rates [2] - Optimizing the distribution structure is crucial for comprehensive development and common prosperity, as well as for increasing the resident consumption rate and maintaining economic growth within a reasonable range [2] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests implementing a plan to increase income for urban and rural residents, effectively raising the income of low-income groups and steadily expanding the middle-income group [3] Group 2: Policy Recommendations - Policies should gradually shift from stimulating consumption to adjusting income distribution, including raising minimum wage standards and increasing ordinary employees' wages [3] - The focus of redistribution should be on enhancing the income of low-income groups through increased taxation, social security, and transfer payments, aiming for a faster growth rate of per capita disposable income than economic growth [3] Group 3: Economic Growth Targets - Economic growth should maintain an average annual growth rate of 4.17% from 2025 to 2035, with a target of achieving per capita GDP at the level of moderately developed countries by 2035 [3] - The expected growth rate for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is around 4.5%, while the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is projected at 4%, leading to an average of approximately 4.2% over the decade [4] Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - The nominal growth rate must remain above 4.5%, as nominal growth has been lower than actual growth since 2023, with a negative GDP deflator index [4] - The growth of urban resident income, corporate profits, and fiscal revenue has been lower than economic growth, exacerbating the issue of insufficient domestic demand [4] - The macroeconomic regulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period must prioritize promoting price recovery as a key objective [4]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 熊园观察 国盛证券首席经济学家，熊园 博士 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧 事件：近期各部门各地陆续学习中央经济工作会议精神，并结合各部门职能定位和各地实际细化落实， 中财办也接受采访解读会议精神。 核心观点：各部委各地学习传达中央经济工作会议精神，是跟踪会议精神落地的重要窗口，会"披露"更 多细节和工作抓手。总体看，有不少亮点、新提法和增量信息，包括：靠前发力，拿出更多实招硬招， 持续讲好"股市叙事"，合理加快资金下达拨付，继续支持"两新"，培育万亿级消费新增长点，加大消费 基建和民生类投资，靠前实施"十五五"重大项目，各级各类规划都要追求"实实在在、没有水分"的增长 等。继续提示，2026年政策大基调已确定，多部门也已部署政策靠前发力、确保年初"开门红"，短期重 点关注：1）2026年"以旧换新"、重大项目的"吹风"与部署，各地重大项目可能的早开工、早建设，各 地稳地产的举措、尤其是北上深等一线城市（北京于12.24放松限购）；2）财政节奏大概率前置，可能 的包括加快财政支出进度、提前下达一批消费"国补"额度、延续消费贴息，加快专项债发行 ...

来源：熊园-国盛证券首席经济学家 国盛证券宏观分析师，朱慧 事件：近期各部门各地陆续学习中央经济工作会议精神，并结合各部门职能定位和各地实际细化落实，中财办也接受采访解读会议精神。 核心观点：各部委各地学习传达中央经济工作会议精神，是跟踪会议精神落地的重要窗口，会"披露"更多细节和工作抓手。总体看，有不少亮点、新提法 和增量信息，包括：靠前发力，拿出更多实招硬招，持续讲好"股市叙事"，合理加快资金下达拨付，继续支持"两新"，培育万亿级消费新增长点，加大消 费基建和民生类投资，靠前实施"十五五"重大项目，各级各类规划都要追求"实实在在、没有水分"的增长等。继续提示，2026年政策大基调已确定，多部 门也已部署政策靠前发力、确保年初"开门红"，短期重点关注：1）2026年"以旧换新"、重大项目的"吹风"与部署，各地重大项目可能的早开工、早建 设，各地稳地产的举措、尤其是北上深等一线城市（北京于12.24放松限购）；2）财政节奏大概率前置，可能的包括加快财政支出进度、提前下达一批消 费"国补"额度、延续消费贴息，加快专项债发行、并优化投向等；3）央行一季度可能的降准降息，推出更多结构性工具；4）2026年1月地方两 ...

Group 1: Policy Implementation - Various departments are refining their implementation of the Central Economic Work Conference's spirit, focusing on "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement" as the main themes[3] - Emphasis on accelerating the disbursement of funds and implementing major projects ahead of schedule to ensure a strong start in 2026[2] - The central government plans to maintain a necessary fiscal deficit and debt scale, with the overall fiscal deficit expected to be similar to that of 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Growth Strategies - Aiming to cultivate new consumption growth points worth trillions, with increased investment in consumer infrastructure and social welfare projects[6] - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand, supporting "two new" and "two heavy" projects, and implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan" major projects[6] - The central bank may consider lowering reserve requirements and interest rates in the first quarter of 2026 to stimulate economic activity[2] Group 3: Risk Management and Market Stability - A commitment to prevent financial risks, ensuring that no major defaults occur, particularly in the real estate sector[10] - The government is taking measures to stabilize the real estate market while balancing the needs of residents and property companies[10] - Continuous efforts to promote the stock market narrative and attract long-term investments, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and commercial real estate REITs pilot programs[10]

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 沪铜产业日报 2025/12/23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) 93,930.00 | | -390.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,967.50 | +42.50↑ | | 期货市场 | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -70.00 | -20.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 241,093.00 | -5697.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) -33,302.00 | -996.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | | 157,750.00 | -2650.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) 95,805.00 | +6416.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | | 51,750.00 | -4700.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) 49,543. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will operate in a state of shock consolidation [4] - The view on lithium carbonate is that it will stabilize with range - bound fluctuations, and one should pay attention to marginal supply - demand changes and be vigilant against emotional fluctuations [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui regional short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart times are expected to affect a total construction steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills' shutdowns will affect a daily output of about 16,200 tons [3][4] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a 40.3% decline from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [4] - Finished products continued to decline in shock, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment was pessimistic, and the price center continued to move down. This year's winter storage was sluggish, providing weak support for prices [4] - The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [4] Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 111,400 yuan/ton, with a slight decline in trading volume and positions, and the net short position of the main contract continued. The average price of electric carbon was 97,650 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend, and the basis of the main contract was - 13,750 yuan/ton. Market activity was extremely low [3] - Fundamentally, the year - on - year increase in raw material prices was over 7%, strengthening cost support. As of December 18, the total weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 51.4%, with a 0.21% increase from the previous period, and the weekly output was 22,045 tons, also with a 0.21% increase [4] - There were significant differences in production processes. The lithium - spodumene process became the core increment in production, and with the gradual commissioning of new projects, the industry's production capacity was steadily released [4] - On the demand side, the downstream lithium - battery industry chain showed a differentiated trend. As of December 19, the production of ternary and lithium - iron batteries decreased by 2.6% and 2.2% respectively from the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of power batteries decreased by 1.48% from the previous period but maintained a 30.34% year - on - year high growth [4] - In the terminal market, as of December 14, the sales volume of new energy vehicles increased by 57.30% from the previous period but decreased by 7.62% year - on - year, showing short - term fluctuations [4] - In terms of inventory, as of December 18, the weekly inventory of the SMM sample decreased slightly by 0.9% to 110,400 tons, continuing the de - stocking state, and the de - stocking slope slowed down [4] - The total inventory days decreased by 1.1% to 26.2 days. Other links had periodic inventory accumulation, and the social inventory showed an inventory accumulation state, with a 4.98% year - on - year increase and a 54.71% decrease from the previous period. The overall industry inventory remained tight [4] - Macro - policies such as the Fed's interest - rate cut, the Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the series of deployments of the Central Economic Work Conference provided support for the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [5] - Battery manufacturers' collective price increases drove market sentiment to warm up, but one should pay attention to events such as overseas resource/restart news and domestic lithium - mine production - capacity dynamics [5] - The later focus includes the implementation of macro - policies, the progress of production - capacity release, the resilience of downstream demand, the de - stocking slope of sample inventory, and funds and emotions [5]

做好明年经济工作，要把造福人民作为根本价值取向，紧紧围绕中央经济工作会议部署抓好民生工 作任务落实，不断增强人民群众的获得感、幸福感、安全感。就业是最基本的民生。要实施稳岗扩容提 质行动，稳定高校毕业生、农民工等重点群体就业，鼓励支持灵活就业人员、新就业形态人员参加职工 保险。要聚焦教育、医疗、食品药品安全等民生领域持续做好工作。推进教育资源布局结构调整，增加 普通高中学位供给和优质高校本科招生。优化药品集中采购，深化医保支付方式改革。实施康复护理扩 容提升工程，推行长期护理保险制度，加强对困难群体的关爱帮扶。扎实做好安全生产、防灾减灾救灾 等工作。民生无小事，枝叶总关情。要加强普惠性、基础性、兜底性民生建设，采取更多惠民生、暖民 心举措，着力解决存在的困难问题，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，不断在高质 量发展中提高人民生活品质，在满足民生需求中拓展发展空间。 为政贵在行，民生重在实。做好民生工作的关键，就是要坚持问需于民、问计于民，用心用情用力 对接群众所需、谋划务实之策，多做雪中送炭的实事，多办纾难解困的好事，真正把工作做到群众心坎 上。改善民生是一个久久为功的过程，需要发扬求真务实的作 ...

北京财经大V联盟于2025年1月在新浪总部大厦正式成立，由市委网信办指导，旨在汇聚行业部门、平 台、大V三方合力，通过建立邀约创作、协同联动等工作机制，组织财经网络大V参与经济、金融等专 业部门活动，促进财经内容创作更加精品多元，传播更为专业、可靠、有价值的财经资讯，推动财经领 域网络传播秩序更加清朗有序。同时，通过财经大V的生动解读，让一系列政策更加可感可知，唱响经 济光明论，助力首都经济社会高质量发展。 来源：北京市网信办 12月18日下午，为深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会、中央经济工作会议精神及相关经济工作部署，凝 聚财经领域发展共识，由北京市委网信办指导，新浪财经、微博联合新浪党委党建大讲堂、北京财经大 V联盟共同举办的"凝心聚力·学习贯彻中央经济工作会议精神座谈会"在北京新浪总部大厦举行。 座谈会上，清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜深度解读中央经济工作会议核心要义，围 绕"十五五"规划编制与2026年经济工作重点部署展开分享。他指出，"十四五"时期我国经济运行稳中有 进、长期向好的基本面没有改变，高质量发展成效扎实，为"十五五"时期发展奠定坚实基础；"十五 五"时期是全面建设社会主义现代化国 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 铁矿石市场周报 现货报价坚挺 铁矿期价止跌反弹 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 业务咨询 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为780（+19.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉845（+14）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+224万吨。2025年12月8日-12月14日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3592.5万吨，环比增加224.0 万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2965.5万吨，环比增加310.2万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+358.9万吨。2025年12月08日-12月14日中国47港到港总量2928.1万吨，环比增加358.9万吨；中国45港 到港总量2723.4万吨，环比增加242.9万吨；北方六港到港总量1358.5万吨，环比增加79.8万吨。 4. 需求：铁水产量-2.65万吨。日均铁水产量 226.55万吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万吨。 5. 库存：港口库存+114.06 ...

中银证券指出，从"十五五"规划建议到中央经济工作会议对地产的表态都是要稳住房地产市场，推进制 度完善。尽管当前防范地产及相关风险仍是首位，但房价的惯性下滑及不断蔓延的看跌预期可能会倒逼 政策尽快出台。预计明年一季度将会有适当的政策调整。地产从标的来看，一方面，流动性安全、重仓 高能级城市、产品力突出的房企或更具备α属性；另一方面，在新消费时代下，提前布局新业态、新模 式、新场景的商业地产公司，有望率先走出重围。 地产板块19日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，德必集团20%涨停，三湘印象、华联控股、中天服务等均涨 停，深深房A涨超5%。 ...