1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2750 and 2810. The US soybean market has a short - term return to a volatile pattern due to China's soybean purchases and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market and demand improvement. With the approaching of the year - end demand peak season and the premium of spot prices, the market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to mixed news [9]. - **For Soybean (A2605)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4300 and 4400. The US soybean market awaits the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and weather conditions in South American production areas. The domestic soybean market is affected by state - reserve auctions, the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. The spot price support and various factors lead to an expected short - term volatile trend [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation has reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remains good in January, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the impact of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound pattern. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement makes soybean meal maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in January remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the tariff game in China - US trade [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From December 30 to January 9, the成交均价 of soybean meal fluctuated between 3144 and 3188, and the trading volume varied from 8.1 to 48.69 million tons. The成交均价 of rapeseed meal was between 2520 and 2570, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.8 million tons on January 8. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 584 and 666 [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From December 31 to January 9, the futures prices of soybean No.1 (A2605) fluctuated between 4241 and 4404, and the spot price in Jiamusi was between 4220 and 4360. The futures prices of soybean No.2 (A2605) were between 3459 and 3536, and the Brazilian - sourced spot price was between 3520 and 3550. The futures prices of soybean meal (M2605) were between 2749 and 2811, and the spot price in Jiangsu was between 3050 and 3110 [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From December 29 to January 9, the soybean No.1 warehouse receipts fluctuated between 18088 and 26046, the soybean No.2 warehouse receipts were mostly 400 after January 5, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were between 24780 and 25480 [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Countries**: In 2023/24, Argentina's soybean planting and harvest progress is presented. In 2024, the US soybean's planting, growth, and harvest progress are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, and good - quality rate. In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are provided [33][34][38]. - **USDA's Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: From May to December 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, are reported [43]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [9]. - **Soybean**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, showing a bullish signal [10]. 3.6 Other Related Data and Information - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year growth [46]. - **Oil Mill Data**: The soybean processing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains high. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the stocking demand has a good expectation [47][49][51]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [53]. - **Pig - Farming Data**: The pig inventory has been on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has a slight month - on - month decline. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit has fluctuated slightly [55][57][59].

Core Insights - The visit of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung to China marks a significant advancement in Sino-Korean trade relations, potentially making U.S. President Trump's aspirations for increased Chinese purchases of American goods seem less attainable [1][5]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - During Lee's visit, South Korea and China signed 24 export contracts worth approximately $4.411 million, equivalent to about 30.8 million yuan [3]. - The agreements span traditional sectors as well as emerging markets such as future technology, robotics, and Korean beauty products, indicating a broadening of trade cooperation [3]. - The collaboration between South Korea's New World Group and Chinese companies aims to sell quality Korean products worth 1 trillion won annually through Chinese online platforms over the next five years [3]. Group 2: Economic Growth - The trade volume between China and South Korea has surged from $6.5 billion at the time of diplomatic relations to $272.9 billion, reflecting a 40-fold increase [3]. - China is now South Korea's largest trading partner, while South Korea ranks as China's second-largest trading partner, highlighting the depth of their economic ties [3]. Group 3: Future Cooperation - Lee emphasized future cooperation in manufacturing innovation and cultural exchanges, showcasing the strong friendship between the two nations [5]. - The successful outcomes of Lee's visit are expected to create more opportunities for Korean products in the Chinese market, potentially leading to a new wave of consumer interest in Korean goods [9]. - The agreements reached during this visit may serve as a model for other countries looking to enhance their trade relations with China [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views 2.1. Soybean Meal (M2605) - Expected to oscillate between 2780 and 2840. Influenced by the rebound of US soybeans, demand improvement, and a mix of positive and negative news, it will likely maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [9]. - The basis shows a premium, which is bullish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow, which is bearish [9]. 2.2. Soybeans (A2605) - Expected to fluctuate between 4320 and 4420. Affected by the US soybean situation, domestic demand recovery, and the interaction of multiple factors, it will remain in an oscillatory state in the short - term [11]. - The basis shows a discount, which is bearish; the inventory has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, which is bearish; the price is above the 20 - day average and moving upward, which is bullish; the main long positions are decreasing with capital inflow, which is bullish [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Daily Hints - No information provided 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term bullish for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory range [13]. - The decline in domestic hog - farming profits has led to low expectations for hog replenishment. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports price expectations, and the interaction of US soybean influence and demand increase has led to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Considering the possible speculation on US soybean - growing weather and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, the soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short - term [13]. 3.3. Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors include the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory, and uncertainties in US and South American soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish factors are that the total arrival of imported soybeans in December remained at a relatively high level, and South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean - harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors are that the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - Bearish factors are the good harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases, as well as the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing price expectations [16]. - The current main focus is on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - The trading volume and average price data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 26 to January 7 are provided, along with the price data of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from December 29 to January 7 [17][19]. - Information on soybean and meal warehouse receipts from December 25 to January 7 is presented [21]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [34]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2023/24 season is given, including data from December 13 to January 24 for planting and from April 21 to June 16 for harvesting [35]. - The planting, growth, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 are provided, including data from April 28 to November 10 [36][37][38][39]. - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 3, 2024, to May 4, 2025, and from October 25, 2025, to December 26, 2025 [40][41][43]. - The planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided, including data from November 13, 2024, to January 15, 2025, and from November 12, 2025, to December 30, 2025 [42][44]. 3.4.4. Other Data - USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 are provided, including data on planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing, and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [45]. - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [46]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [48]. 3.5. Position Data - No information provided 3.6. Other Market Conditions - The soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with the spot premium remaining at a high level [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year [26][51]. - The procurement of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises increased from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained at a relatively high level [28]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract remained at a low level [30]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [55]. - The hog inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [57]. - The hog price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [59]. - The proportion of large hogs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of hogs fluctuated slightly [61]. - The domestic hog - farming profit fluctuated slightly [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The US soybean market is affected by the expected high - yield of South American soybeans and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is influenced by the US soybean market and improved demand. With the end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium, it may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 4220 and 4320. The US soybean market has similar influencing factors as the soybean meal market. The domestic soybean market is supported by the increase in end - of - year demand, technical buying, domestic soybean storage, and rising spot prices, but is also affected by the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillates between 2740 - 2800, influenced by US soybean trends, demand improvement, and other factors [9]. - **Soybeans**: Oscillates between 4220 - 4320, affected by US soybean trends, domestic demand, and trade - related factors [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a relatively high level. With normal weather for South American soybean planting and growth, soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The increase in soybean meal demand in December supports the price, and the interaction between the US soybean market and demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Due to the possible speculation on US soybean产区 weather and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement, soybean meal will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Soybean Meal Bullish Factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean producing areas [14]. - **Soybean Meal Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [15]. - **Soybean Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Soybean Bearish Factors**: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a high yield, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3070, with a basis of 294, indicating a premium over futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4240, with a basis of - 36, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [11]. 3.6 Other Data - **Trading Volume and Price of Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: From December 25, 2025, to January 6, 2026, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated, and the price also changed. The trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 during this period, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated [17]. - **Futures and Spot Prices of Soybeans and Meal**: The futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 26, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [19]. - **Warehouse Receipt Statistics of Soybeans and Meal**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed from December 24, 2025, to January 6, 2026 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of global and domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory [33][34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress in Different Regions**: It includes the planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: It shows the planting area, yield, output, and other data of US soybeans and the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the past six months [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Other Data**: The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase. The soybean inventory of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal inventory remained at a high level. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand maintained a good expectation. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the disk profit fluctuated slightly. The pig inventory increased, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [48][49][51][53][55][57][59][61][63].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-01-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，南美大豆丰产和中国采购美豆数量不足，美豆短期回归震荡等待 中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和需求改善交互影响，年底需求逐渐进入旺季和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多 空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3060（华东），基差311，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存113.71万吨，上周109.69万吨，环比增加3.66%，去年同期58.28万吨， 同比增加95.11%。偏空 4.盘面 ...

Group 1 - The market in 2026 is expected to continue the operational logic from 2024, with fiscal and monetary policies remaining the main driving forces, providing significant support to the fundamentals [1] - Monetary policy is anticipated to have more operational space due to potential leadership changes at the Federal Reserve and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle for the dollar [1] - Fiscal policy is expected to focus on investment, shifting from traditional infrastructure to new infrastructure and hard technology sectors [1] Group 2 - Export performance is projected to exceed market expectations, supported by a relatively stable export environment compared to the first half of 2025, despite potential challenges in US-China trade negotiations [1] - The competitiveness of Chinese export products is highlighted, even amidst discussions of trade balance in Europe, indicating that exports will remain a crucial support for China's economic growth in 2026 [1] Group 3 - Since 2024, market sentiment has transitioned through three phases: extreme pessimism, expectation recovery, and reasonable valuation, with current optimism driven by policies encouraging stock buybacks and enhancing dividend requirements [2] - The market is expected to show a steady upward trend, gradually incorporating more positive expectations, transitioning from lagging to leading performance relative to fundamentals [2] - The company managing consumer-themed funds aims for a stable investment approach, focusing on high-quality stocks with valuation advantages and sustainable growth in various consumer sectors [2] Group 4 - In the gold jewelry industry, most retail enterprises are experiencing slow growth or even negative growth due to rising gold prices, while their valuations remain reasonable [3] - The gold mining sector is viewed as having strong long-term investment appeal compared to downstream retail enterprises [3] - In the optional consumption sector, companies in the downstream real estate chain, such as construction materials, have adjusted valuations to reasonable levels and maintain certain growth resilience, indicating good long-term investment value [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Views and Strategies for Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2730 and 2790. The market is influenced by factors such as the increase in US soybean exports, technical adjustments, short - term improvement in demand, and the discount of spot prices. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are decreasing with capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak [9]. 2.2. Views and Strategies for Soybeans - Soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The market is affected by China's increased procurement of US soybeans, technical adjustments, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones. It is also influenced by the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. The outlook is neutral. The basis is neutral, the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the bottom, but the high - volume arrival of imported soybeans and domestic soybean production growth suppress the price [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Hints - Not explicitly presented in the provided content 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's procurement and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above 1000 points in the short term. The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the increase in soybean meal demand in December has supported the price. The high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing area, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement have led to a short - term range - bound oscillation of soybean meal, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expectation of increased demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - From December 16th to 24th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 and 3138, and the trading volume was between 3.55 and 18.45 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 and 2520, and the trading volume was 0 [17]. - From December 17th to 24th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the prices of soybean and soybean meal spot remained relatively stable [19]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally increased, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [33]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans was generally in line with the five - year average [34]. - In 2024, the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - In the 2025/26 season, the planting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [42][43]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 3.6. Other Data and Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, showing an overall year - on - year growth [47]. - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [48][50][52][53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and South American weather, it may show short - term weak oscillations. Factors like demand improvement, spot price premium, inventory changes, and market expectations contribute to this view [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The price is affected by the US - China trade situation, South American weather, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. Import volume and domestic production also impact the market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: In a neutral position. Market factors include US - China trade, South American weather, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Also in a neutral state. Influenced by similar factors as soybean meal, along with the cost - performance of domestic soybeans [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while oil mill soybean inventory remained high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, but the rising demand for soybean meal in December supported price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Long Factors**: Initial agreement in US - China trade negotiation, no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and variable weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in December, and expected high - yield South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Long Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - **Short Factors**: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows trends in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio varying over the years [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data reflects changes in harvest area, import volume, production, consumption, and inventory, along with the inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - **Soybean Meal Futures and Spot**: Futures showed weak oscillations, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight reduction in the spot premium [24]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread fluctuated slightly, and the spread in the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [29]. - **Oil Mill Operations**: Oil mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year. Downstream purchases were low, while提货 volume was high [26][27]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory showed some fluctuations, along with information on Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [44]. - **US Soybean Exports**: Weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival volume increased slightly in December and showed an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - **Oil Mill Inventory and Contracts**: Oil mill soybean inventory remained high, and soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. Unfulfilled contracts rose to a high level, indicating increased stocking demand [48][50]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: Followed the oscillation of US soybeans and declined, with slight fluctuations in the market profit [53]. - **Pig Farming**: Pig inventory increased, sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices fluctuated slightly, and piglet prices were weak. The proportion of large pigs increased, and the cost of secondary fattening fluctuated slightly. Pig - farming profits also fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The report presents views on both the soybean and soybean meal markets. For soybean meal M2605, it is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. The market is influenced by factors such as the US soybean's movement, China's soybean procurement, and South American soybean planting weather. The short - term outlook is for a weakening oscillation. For soybean A2605, it is expected to fluctuate between 4040 and 4140, with the market affected by similar factors and also by the domestic soybean's rotation storage and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans compared to imported ones [9][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780, and soybean A2605 between 4040 and 4140 [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high. South American soybean planting and growth weather is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to an oscillating range. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has rebounded from a low level in December, supporting the price of soybean meal. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the rebound in soybean meal demand has led to an oscillating pattern [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is a short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of soybean meal at domestic oil mills; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in December remained high; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price of domestic soybeans [16]. - Bearish factors: Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data**: From December 11th to 19th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.1 million tons on December 15th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 610 - 631 yuan/ton [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data**: From December 12th to 19th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures generally showed a downward trend, while the spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal were relatively stable, with the spot price of soybean meal showing a slight downward trend [19]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From December 10th to 19th, the number of soybean No.1 warehouse receipts decreased from 16664 to 16673, the number of soybean No.2 warehouse receipts decreased from 7100 to 2900, and the number of soybean meal warehouse receipts increased from 23830 to 24830 [21]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in factors such as harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory over the years [32][33]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The report provides the planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 - 2026, including data on planting rate, harvest rate, emergence rate, and excellent - good rate [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from May to December 2025 show the changes in factors such as planting area, yield per unit, output, and ending inventory of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal M2605 and soybean A2605, the short positions of the main players decreased, and funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Market Conditions - The export inspection volume of US soybeans decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - The inventory of soybeans at oil mills remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level [48]. - The unfulfilled contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, indicating an increase in stocking demand [50]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year [52]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the margin on the disk fluctuated slightly [53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [55]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [61].

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a weakening dollar index and improved market sentiment towards the RMB, following a period of trade tensions and policy adjustments [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Changes - Since late November, the offshore RMB has appreciated over 550 pips, while the onshore RMB has appreciated over 400 pips, indicating a return to an appreciation trend [2]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a weakening dollar index, which has declined by 1% from its peak, aligning with the RMB's appreciation [2][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The driving force behind the RMB's appreciation is the increase in foreign exchange settlement (结汇) by exporters, which had been low earlier due to tariff impacts and unstable exchange rate expectations [3]. - Since the third quarter, there has been a notable improvement in the willingness to settle foreign exchange, leading to a compensatory settlement that supports RMB appreciation [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Looking ahead, the RMB is expected to continue appreciating slowly, contingent on a further weakening of the dollar index [4]. - The central bank's policy aims for a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with recent indicators suggesting a shift towards preventing rapid appreciation to avoid negative impacts on exports [4]. - The market has priced in three potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, limiting the scope for further declines in long-term US Treasury yields and maintaining the interest rate differential between China and the US [4].