特朗普在10月1日通过社交媒体发布消息，称"美国的大豆农民正在遭受损失，因为中国为了争取谈判优势，停止购买美国大豆。我将在四周后的会谈中与中 方讨论这一问题，大豆将是重点。" 秋季是美国大豆的销售旺季。中国不仅是全球最大的豆类进口国，也是美国大豆的最大买家。去年，中国进口的美国大豆约占其总进口量的20%，金额超过 120亿美元，占美国大豆出口的一半以上。然而，今年秋季，中国没有采购美国的大豆，这是自1999年以来的首次。这一变化使得美国大豆协会上周警告 称，由于中国对美豆加征了20%的报复性关税，中国买家纷纷转向巴西和阿根廷，致使美国农民被排除在中国市场之外。 美国农业机械和化肥的进口依赖度较高，而特朗普的关税政策使得种植成本大幅增加，农产品出口的竞争力也大打折扣，导致农业产品价格急剧下跌。因 此，特朗普的关税政策给美国农民带来了极大的经济压力。 为了缓解这一局面，特朗普政府计划对农民进行补贴。据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普及其团队正在考虑利用关税收入对农民进行补助，补助金额预计在 100亿至140亿美元之间。然而，这项救助计划需要国会批准，并且可能要到2026年才会落实到农民手中。更重要的是，农业补贴并不能从 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For palm oil, the European demand support may not end, but the demand side is hard to provide further stimulus. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline. It's hard to say that September is the last correction window, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year. Future price movements depend on domestic macro - stories and production [3][5][7] - For soybean oil, before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound. It may seek exports in the fourth quarter and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Last Week's View and Logic - Palm oil: Argentina announced zero - tariff exports of oil and meal, causing the oil and fat sector to plunge on Tuesday. The palm oil 01 contract fell 1.11% last week [2] - Soybean oil: After the plunge on Tuesday, the sector rebounded slowly. The US soybean main contract fell 1.17% and the soybean oil 01 contract fell 2.09% last week [2] 2. This Week's View and Logic Palm oil - Supply side: In September, rainfall may lead to flat or decreased production in Malaysia, with an estimated output of 180 - 185 million tons. Indonesia's annual production increase is at least 5.5 million tons. Although the inventory pressure is not fully released, the current price may have factored in Indonesia's price - cut attitude [3] - Demand side: In the consumer market, the import profit of Indian soybean oil and sunflower oil is better than that of CPO, and the availability of soybean oil in India has increased. The possibility of the EUDR delay has increased, and the demand side lacks stimulus [3] - Inventory: The inventory increase in Malaysia from July to September may be extremely slow. Indonesia's inventory bottomed out in August. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then gradually decline [3] Soybean oil - Policy: The policy optimism of US soybean oil was fully reflected in June. The final release of RVO may be delayed. Before the policy is implemented, US soybean oil will mainly fluctuate in the range of 50 - 56 cents/pound [6] - Market: US soybean oil may seek exports in the fourth quarter, and its price will mainly follow crude oil, diesel crack spreads, and South American soybean oil prices. Domestic soybean oil lacks independent drivers and will follow the oil and fat sector [6][7] 3. Basic Market Data of Futures - Palm oil main continuous contract: Opened at 9,322 yuan/ton, closed at 9,236 yuan/ton, down 1.11% [9] - Soybean oil main continuous contract: Opened at 8,320 yuan/ton, closed at 8,162 yuan/ton, down 2.09% [9] 4. Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats - Production: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is expected to be flat or slightly decreased compared to the previous month [11] - Inventory: Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September is expected to increase slightly. Indonesia's inventory is expected to recover to last year's level after the second quarter [11][13] - Export: ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 25 were 1.288462 million tons, a 12.9% increase compared to the same period last month [14] - Price difference: The price difference between Indian soybean oil and palm oil has weakened, and the import profit of palm oil is significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oil [17]

农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 市场购销转好，豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2967元/吨，较前日变动+37元/吨，幅度+1.26%；菜粕2601合约2444元/吨，较前 日变动+49元/吨，幅度+2.05%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01+3， 较前日变动-27；江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-77，较前日变动-27；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-67，较前日变动-27。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM01+156，较前日变动-19。 近期市场资讯，巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示，预计2025年9月巴西大豆出口量715万吨，低于一周前预估的753万 吨，但高于去年同期的516万吨；2025年1-9月巴西大豆出口量将达到9525万吨，去年同期为8905万吨。预计10-12 月巴西大豆出口量约1600万吨。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号， ...

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 [Table_Report] 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 【股指】在贵金属、港口航运以及油气等板块的拖累下，国内股市微幅下跌。基 本面上，中国 8 消费同比增长 3.4%，1-8 月投资同比增长 0.5%，工业增加值同 比增长 5.2%，均 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Paper pulp: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Apple: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bias towards long/short, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Logs: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Natural rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ (White star represents a relatively balanced short - term long/short trend with poor operability on the trading floor, suggesting a wait - and - see approach) [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and logs, providing supply - demand, price, and inventory information, and suggesting corresponding investment strategies such as waiting and seeing or trading within a range [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and declined, with weak spot trading but good pre - sales of new cotton. Due to low old - crop inventory, new cotton sales may be good at the beginning of the new - cotton listing. The acquisition of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton is expected to start this week, with the acquisition price at 6.1 - 6.4 yuan/kg. Xinjiang cotton is likely to have a bumper harvest, with the output forecast ranging from 720 to 770 tons. Ginning factories are cautious about new - cotton acquisition, and there is unlikely to be a scramble for cotton. The domestic production - demand gap may narrow significantly. At the beginning of new - cotton listing, the cost of new cotton strongly supports the futures price, but there is also hedging pressure. Domestic peak - season demand is weak, and spinning profits are poor, which drags down the cotton price. Positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations need further follow - up. After the short - term breakdown of Zhengzhou cotton, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. In the short term, Brazil's sugar production decreased year - on - year, and the supply pressure is less than last year. In the medium term, based on the sugar - alcohol ratio, if the current ratio is maintained, Brazil's sugar - making ratio may still be high next year, so there is still pressure on the upside of US sugar. Attention should be paid to subsequent production. In the domestic market, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated. This year's sales rhythm is fast, and the spot pressure is relatively light. The market's focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate. Since July, rainfall in Guangxi has been good, and the vegetation index of sugarcane has increased year - on - year. The sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good. Typhoon Kajiki is expected to have little impact on sugarcane growth, and subsequent growth should be monitored [3] Apple - The futures price is strongly running. Affected by Mid - Autumn Festival stocking, the demand for cold - storage apples has increased. For early - maturing apples, the supply of high - quality goods is scarce, and merchants' purchasing enthusiasm is high, with the pre - order price of pre - harvested apples remaining high. From a fundamental perspective, the high price of early - maturing apples has raised the market's expectation for the opening price of late - maturing apples in October. However, according to bagging data, the apple production in the 25/26 quarter is expected to change little year - on - year, and there is no bullish driver on the supply side. In addition, farmers in Shaanxi are more bullish this year, and the amount of apples for storage has increased. It is expected that the inventory in cold storage after the late - maturing apples are harvested in October will also increase, and the cold - storage inventory in the new season may be higher than market expectations. Overall, although the spot market performs well, funds believe that the cold - storage inventory in the new season will be higher than expected, and the futures price is expected to continue to decline in the short term. A bearish trading strategy is recommended [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU&IR oscillated weakly, and BR oscillated strongly. The wait - and - see sentiment in the futures market has increased. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber have stabilized with a slight increase, the import price of butadiene in the external market has remained stable, and the prices in the Thai raw - material market have mostly declined. In terms of supply, the global natural - rubber supply has entered the high - yield period, and there has been a lot of rainfall in the main producing areas. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene - rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants in maintenance and low - load operation. The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants has also decreased significantly. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic tire plants increased slightly last week, and tire enterprises maintained normal production, but the inventory of finished - tire products increased. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao announced by Longzhong this week continued to decline to 461,200 tons, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory. The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber announced by Zhuochuang last week fell back to 12,600 tons, and the upstream Chinese butadiene port inventory rebounded to 27,800 tons this week. Overall, demand remains stable, the supply of natural rubber increases while inventory decreases, and the supply and inventory of synthetic rubber both decrease. With the approaching National Day holiday, risk preference is cautious. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [5] Paper Pulp - The paper - pulp futures have been oscillating at a low level. The spot price of coniferous pulp Moon is 5,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian coniferous pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai is 5,200 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaved pulp Goldfish is 4,220 yuan/ton, and the prices are stable. As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream paper - pulp ports in China is 2.033 million tons, a decrease of 79,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.7%. The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian coniferous pulp still suppress the near - month contracts. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts. China's paper - pulp import volume in August 2025 was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 227,000 tons. Currently, the domestic port inventory is relatively high year - on - year, the paper - pulp supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to changes in port inventory. The paper - pulp demand is still average. A wait - and - see approach or a trading - within - a - range strategy is recommended [6] Logs - The futures price is oscillating. The mainstream spot price has remained stable. In terms of supply, the weekly arrival volume decreased month - on - month. The price of New Zealand radiata pine in September decreased by $2 month - on - month, the domestic spot price has been weak, and the import willingness of traders has declined. In addition, the external - market price is still high, the domestic spot price is difficult to improve, and the pressure on traders has increased. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and the domestic supply may remain at a low level. In terms of demand, although it is the peak season, the port shipment volume decreased last week, indicating weak peak - season demand. However, the daily average outbound volume during the off - season has remained above 60,000 cubic meters, and inventory reduction has been smooth. In terms of inventory, the total log inventory is low, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. Fundamentally, the supply - demand situation has improved, and the spot price is relatively low. However, the peak - season demand is average, and there is insufficient upward momentum for prices in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [7]

Core Viewpoint - China has made significant achievements in artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading international investors to believe that trade wars and U.S. technology export bans will not hinder China's innovation progress [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - Ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are boosting investor confidence in the Chinese stock market [1] - A temporary agreement on tariffs and China's moderately loose monetary policy have further enhanced investor sentiment [1] - Foreign investors are increasingly returning to the Chinese stock market due to its attractiveness and the need for diversified investments [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - Fund issuance and capital flow data indicate a growing interest from foreign investors in the Chinese stock market [1] - Investors now have the opportunity to increase their positions under relatively attractive conditions [1] - Strong support from the Chinese government for the real economy and financial markets is further boosting investor confidence [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Chinese stock market is expected to remain attractive to both domestic and international investors in the future [1] - China's loose monetary policy, targeted industry support, and relatively favorable valuations create a conducive environment for strong stock market performance [1]

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 分[析Ta师ble_Report] 观 点 从业资格证号：F0256916 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 精 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F031 ...

目前来看，豆粕行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于豆粕后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 国新国证期货表示，当前国内进口大豆数量较大，大豆供应充足，油厂维持高开机水平，压榨量高位运 行，豆粕库存持续攀升。在供应宽松以及美国大豆收割带来的供应压力下，豆粕价格震荡偏弱运行。后 市重点需关注中美贸易谈判进展、大豆到港量等因素的变化。 9月23日，国内期市油脂油料板块全线飘绿。其中，豆粕期货主力合约开盘报3013.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，豆粕主力最高触及3015.00元，下方探低2917.00元，跌幅达3.60%附近。 建信期货分析称，国内豆粕上周相较外盘明显偏弱。主要由于9月USDA报告相对有小利空，且中美谈 判相对顺利，市场多头避险情绪较浓。目前正值美豆收获期，鉴于特朗普之前反反复复的行为及农产品 的价格压力，不排除期间其会在社交媒体上表态与中国商谈较好的消息，但从大局来看中美间谈判难以 一蹴而就，且美方经常存在反复行为，近期至国庆前鉴于潜在利多不足，建议投资者相对以减仓规避风 险为主。但在维持关税不变的假设下，多头的时间窗口或在四季度。 申银万国期货指出，本月USDA报告公布 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-09-23 现货小幅上涨，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2601合约3034元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，幅度+0.66%；菜粕2601合约2528元/吨，较前 日变动+6元/吨，幅度+0.24%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3020元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M01-14， 较前日变动+10；江苏地区豆粕现货2940元/吨，较前日变动+10元/吨，现货基差M01-94，较前日变动-10；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2960元/吨，较前日变动跌+10元/吨，现货基差M01-74，较前日变动-10。福建地区菜粕现货价格2700 元/吨，较前日变动+20元/吨，现货基差RM01+172，较前日变动+14。 近期市场资讯，加拿大统计局数据显示，2025/26年度迄今，加拿大油菜籽出口进度偏慢。截至9月7日当周，加拿 大油菜籽出口量4.6万吨，上周为4.7万吨；2025/26年度迄今油菜籽出口量57.5万吨，同比减少60.3%，上周同比减 少53.4%。 市场分析 整体来看，当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果，但传递了一定的积极信号，未来需持续关注。另一 ...

美国驻华大使用中文发帖欢迎六年首访的众议员代表团，称其"至关重要"，但这场迟到的访问背后，是八年贸易战留下的伤痕和两国关系的不懈挣扎。 当美国驻华大使庞德伟在社交平台用中文发出那条欢迎信息时，许多观察中美关系的人感到一种讽刺的错位。 这位75岁的大使，商业精英出身却又支持对 华关税战的共和党鹰派，亲自接待了自2019年以来首个访问中国的众议院代表团。 代表团由民主党众议员亚当·史密斯率领，包括迈克尔·鲍姆加特纳、罗·康 纳以及克里西·赫拉汉等跨党派成员。 庞德伟称这个团队在管理美中关系方面扮演着"至关重要的角色"。 但问题是：为什么等了六年才想起要扮演这个角 色？ 这六年恰好是中美贸易战持续的全过程。 从2018年7月6日美方对340亿美元中国商品加征25%关税开始，中美之间展开了一场长达八年的经济博弈。 2019年 5月，美国将2000亿美元中国商品关税从10%上调至25%；2024年针对中国电动汽车、锂电池、光伏电池加征25?0%关税；到2025年2月，特朗普甚至对所有 中国输美商品加征10%关税。 中方的反制从未缺席，从对美国农产品、汽车加征关税，到限制稀土出口和制裁美国企业。 贸易战数据显示，尽管美国 ...