证 券 研 究 报 告 盈利新周期，估值新起点，迎银行长牛 2026年银行业投资策略 证券分析师： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 林颖颖 A0230522070004 冯思远 A0230522090005 李禹昊 A0230525070004 联系人： 郑庆明 A0230519090001 2025.11.18 投资要点 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 站在当下，我们更为坚定地看好银行板块正处于长牛修复的起点：2018年以来银行板块从"破净"到估值深度承压（最低0.49倍PB）再到当前行业整体 仍仅约0.7倍PB，核心压制无外乎两点："看不清的风险趋势"、"难以扭转的盈利下行"。相对乐观的是，这两点在当下都已"拨云见日"。 ◼ 不容忽视，银行板块价值回归的资金驱动力：1）"前所未有的低利率环境"是带动增量资金流向红利板块最直接驱动，银行板块性价比更优。对标美国 和日本，低利率环境中红利高股息策略总体跑赢，也是险资更为青睐的投资方向；而当前银行指数股息率约4.3%，较十年国债利率溢价位居过去十年超 70%分位，在红利板块中性价比更为突出。2）耐心资本入市仅是开端，以险资为代 ...

Core Insights - The "fixed income +" funds have rapidly developed this year, becoming a key choice for investors seeking stable asset allocation in a volatile market, with total scale surpassing 2 trillion yuan by Q3 2025 [1][2] - The launch of the new "fixed income +" product by Great Wall Fund aims to provide investors with more quality investment options [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The appeal of "fixed income +" funds is driven by a continuous decline in risk-free interest rates, which compresses the yield space of pure debt assets, failing to meet the income needs of conservative investors [2] - The recovery of the equity market, particularly in themes like technology innovation and green low-carbon, enhances the yield potential of "fixed income +" products [2] Group 2: Future Outlook - The long-term trend indicates that the domestic economy is transitioning towards high-quality development, with ongoing pressure on real estate investment and consumption, suggesting a continued downtrend in market interest rates [3] - The overall market may experience fluctuations, with a shift from broad-based gains to more rational differentiation, necessitating a focus on individual stock selection [4] Group 3: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for "fixed income +" will involve proactive portfolio management, focusing on building a stable bond base with an emphasis on medium to short-duration bonds and high-grade corporate bonds [5] - The strategy will also include enhancing allocations in convertible bonds, targeting those with high yields and low conversion premiums to leverage their asymmetric characteristics [6] - The final layer of the strategy will focus on selecting high-quality dividend stocks that are stable and financially healthy, adapting to market changes [6]

Group 1 - The report identifies several key puzzles resolved in 2025, including the final determination of monetary policy, the stage bottom of the bond market, and the credit risk outlook, indicating that mainstream varieties do not require excessive concern [7] - The report highlights ongoing contradictions for 2026, such as the conflict between the macro narrative and micro sentiment, and the limited space for capital gains versus coupon strategies in the bond market [7] - The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in 2026, with a focus on timing over selection, and a preference for coupon strategies over duration [7] Group 2 - The report outlines several long-term bullish factors for the bond market, including the experience of low interest rates in other economies, weak economic sentiment, and a lack of leverage among residents [8][9] - Short-term bearish factors are identified, such as the rising equity market attracting funds away from bonds, and the potential tightening of monetary policy due to inflation expectations [8][9] - The report emphasizes that the risk of credit bond defaults is diminishing, with the current market dominated by state-owned enterprises, reducing concerns over credit risk [31][26] Group 3 - The report provides specific strategies for different types of bonds, recommending a focus on financial bonds for their safety and liquidity, while suggesting a cautious approach to city investment bonds and a selective strategy for industrial bonds [10] - The financial bond market is highlighted as a key area for trading strategies, with a focus on liquidity rather than yield in a low coupon environment [10] - The city investment bond market is expected to remain stable until mid-2028, with opportunities for adjustment based on risk preferences and yield demands [10]

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is increasingly turning to long-term equity investments, particularly in undervalued bank stocks, to achieve asset-liability matching and stable returns amid a low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity [1][11]. Summary by Sections Long-term Equity Investment Strategy - Insurance companies are seeking stable, long-term returns through long-term equity investments, which are seen as a strategic choice to smooth out volatility and achieve stable ROE and dividend returns [1][11]. - However, this strategy has sparked controversy, as some companies may misuse it as a financial engineering tool to quickly create profits and net assets, masking operational pressures [1][2]. Accounting Practices and Implications - Long-term equity investments are intended to reflect a long-term holding and stable return logic, but they can transform into a "reporting magic" under specific accounting rules, especially when investing in undervalued stocks [3][4]. - The new accounting standards allow insurance companies to classify investments as long-term equity investments if they have "significant influence," enabling them to use the equity method for accounting [6][9]. Financial Engineering Concerns - The equity method allows for initial measurement based on the higher of the payment amount or the share of the investee's net assets, which can lead to significant one-time profits being recognized on the income statement [7][9]. - This practice can create a disconnect between reported profits and actual cash flows, raising concerns about the sustainability of such financial engineering [17]. Market and Regulatory Pressures - The low-interest-rate environment and asset scarcity have intensified pressure on insurance companies, particularly smaller firms, to seek quick fixes for profitability and solvency metrics [11][12]. - Regulatory scrutiny is increasing as the misuse of long-term equity investments for short-term financial gains becomes more apparent, leading to calls for clearer standards and stricter oversight [20][21]. Recommendations for Improvement - To mitigate risks associated with long-term equity investments, it is suggested that insurance companies enhance internal controls, focus on sustainable cash flows, and separate short-term profits from long-term investment strategies [21][22]. - Expanding into alternative assets that align with long-term liabilities, such as infrastructure REITs and policy bonds, is recommended to reduce reliance on equity market fluctuations [21][22].

上周（2025/11/3~11/7）市场整体震荡，投资者情绪趋于谨慎。从表现来看，红利类资产作为底仓配置 选项的价值或正持续凸显，市场对红利主题ETF热情踊跃。（数据来源：Wind） Wind数据显示，作为市场首只追踪红利低波指数的红利低波ETF（512890）上周（25/11/3~25/11/7）有 4日实现资金净流入，累计吸金5.74亿元，是同期A股市场上红利类主题ETF中仅有的区间资金净流入超 5亿元的产品，最新基金规模达258.14亿元，创下历史新高。与此同时，另一只聚焦港股红利类资产的 港股通红利ETF（513530）近期交投情绪同样有所升温，自2025年10月30日以来连续7个交易日实现资 金净申购，累计吸金1.75亿元，带动基金规模在连续5个交易日抬升后达23.88亿元，创2025年8月27日以 来新高。（红利低波ETF成立于18/12/19，数据来源：交易所、Wind，截至25/11/7，港股通红利ETF截 至25/10/31、25/11/7的规模分别为21.76亿元、23.88亿元） 此外，低利率环境也成为了推动红利类资产长期配置价值瞩目的主要动因。Wind数据显示，截至2025 年11月7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - A-share major indices generally rose this week, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks outperforming small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, showing a random walk state, and trading activity declined compared to last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. - Treasury futures weakened collectively this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. Although the central bank's Treasury bond trading volume in October was prudent, bond - buying operations still released a loose signal. The market expects short - term interest rates to continue to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a potential suppression of long - term interest rates due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. - The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut pushed up the US dollar index, and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices. However, crude oil and gold were stable recently, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro. The Japanese yen's trend is mainly volatile in the short term [10][14]. - China's foreign trade declined more than expected in October, with exports turning from an increase to a decrease. But the positive results of the Sino - US consultation in Kuala Lumpur are expected to relieve the foreign trade pressure [15]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The CSI 300 rose 0.82%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures rose 0.49%. A - share major indices generally rose, except for the Sci - Tech Innovation 50. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large - cap blue - chip stocks stronger than small and medium - cap stocks. The market was in a performance and policy vacuum period, and trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [10]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.06% (a weekly change of + 0.11BP), and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.19%. Treasury futures weakened this week, and the central bank shifted to net withdrawal. The central bank's bond - buying operations released a loose signal. Short - term interest rates are expected to decline, possibly driving long - term interest rates down, but there is a risk of long - term interest rate suppression due to the recovery of risk appetite. It is recommended to go long with a light position [10]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index fell 1.90%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.51%. The downgraded expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut and the decline of China's manufacturing PMI had a negative impact on commodity prices, but crude oil and gold were stable, and the commodity index is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar fell 0.02%, and the euro against the US dollar 2512 contract fell 0.06%. The US federal government's continued shutdown led to the US dollar rising and then falling. The improvement in the eurozone's economic expectations narrowed the US - euro interest rate spread, providing medium - term support for the euro [10]. 2. Important News and Events - China announced specific measures to implement the consensus of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation in Kuala Lumpur, including stopping some tariff - adding measures on US imports [18]. - The US federal government's shutdown set a new record, which may cause economic losses. The US Treasury Secretary threatened to impose tariffs on China, and the EU reached an agreement on the 2040 climate change target [19]. 3. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - China's October exports in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1% year - on - year [15]. - The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, and the ADP employment number was 4.2 million [20]. - The eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 50, and the September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [20]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week, important economic data such as Japan's September trade balance, UK's October unemployment rate, and China's October social consumer goods retail sales will be released [78].

近日看了一个报道，从2020年开始，5 年内，全球近50个海外经济体以本币计价几乎全部录得名义房价 上涨，平均累计涨幅在 30% 以上。 而近一年，全球主要发达经济体，平均房价增速在 5% 以上，主要原因就是全球通胀，被动推高了房 价。 在这其中，涨势排名第一的是日本，一年内房价暴涨了 20%，就连租金都飙升了 8% 以上。我看了一 眼，东京核心区新房均价高达 1.5 亿日元，折合人民币接近 700 万元，新房平均面积是 65 平方，算下 来，达到 9-10 万/平米。东京核心区如港区，2025 年新建公寓每平米大概在 20 万每平米左右。 即使是郊区，房价最便宜也在 4.2-7.1 万/平米左右。日本房价涨的是真的夸张。 那么为什么会出现一年内暴涨的趋势？总共分为三大原因。 第一个是日元贬值严重，而东京租金回报率又在 5% 左右，那么日本房产就具有了天然稳定的避险属 性，相当于 5% 左右的理财。这吸引了亚太地区甚至全球资本前来避险。 全球 1% 的富人手握重金成为东京核心资产的主要竞标者，对房屋进行重新定价，也让日本房子跟本土 工薪阶层彻底脱钩。 第二个原因是极其夸张的低利率环境。 日本靠国债和低利率，把 ...

Group 1: AI Industry Insights - Huang Renxun, CEO of Nvidia, stated that China will win the AI competition due to favorable regulatory environments and lower energy costs, criticizing Western cynicism as a hindrance to progress [2] - The overall strength of both China and the US in the global AI industry is significant, with China making breakthroughs in AI models and chips, but the US maintains a superior position in both hardware and software [3] Group 2: Banking Sector Developments - A bank in Inner Mongolia has become the first to cancel its five-year fixed deposit product, adjusting interest rates for shorter-term deposits [4] - The cancellation reflects a broader trend of banks facing pressure in a low-interest-rate environment, leading to a potential shift of funds towards wealth management products [5] Group 3: Corporate Financial Actions - Kweichow Moutai plans to distribute over 30 billion yuan in cash dividends and has announced a share buyback of up to 3 billion yuan, indicating a strategy to reward shareholders amid slowing revenue growth [6][7] - Country Garden successfully restructured 127 billion yuan of offshore debt, utilizing a combination of cash buybacks, equity tools, and new debt swaps, which is seen as a positive outcome compared to other firms in the sector [8][9] Group 4: Payment Industry Movements - Xiaohongshu has acquired a payment license through the purchase of Oriental Electronic Payment, enhancing its financial service capabilities and allowing for more autonomy in payment processing [10][11] Group 5: Qualcomm's Financial Performance - Qualcomm reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3, with significant growth in mobile and automotive chip sectors, although it faced a net loss due to tax-related write-downs [12] - The company is diversifying its chip supply business, entering the AI data center inference market, but faces challenges from established competitors [13] Group 6: Securities Market Trends - Major brokerages have raised their margin financing limits, reflecting increased demand for leveraged investment as the market index rises [14][15] - The stock market showed a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining the 4000-point mark, although the overall market sentiment remains cautious with mixed performances across sectors [16][17]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the stability and long-term performance of the fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management, highlighting the rarity of fund managers who maintain consistent performance over a decade or more [1][5][13] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The fixed income investment approach is likened to a marathon, focusing on long-term rhythm and endurance rather than short-term speed [1] - The company has developed a mature system to continuously seek excess returns in a low-yield, high-volatility environment, emphasizing the importance of macroeconomic foresight and institutional behavior tracking [2][3] - Asset pricing dynamics are crucial for identifying investment opportunities, with the company considering various valuation indicators to inform its "fixed income+" product strategies [3] Group 2: Team and Talent - The fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse has grown to 46 members, with a structured growth path for team members to ensure the continuity of research capabilities [7] - The presence of experienced fund managers, such as Ouyang Kai and He Xiuhong, who have managed funds for over a decade, contributes to the company's stability and performance [6][5] Group 3: Product Offering - The company has established a comprehensive "fixed income super shelf" with a diverse range of products tailored to different investor needs, including short-term, medium-term, and various types of bond funds [8][10] - The "fixed income+" products are categorized into three tiers based on equity positions and risk-return characteristics, catering to different market cycles and investor risk appetites [9] Group 4: Historical Development - The development of ICBC Credit Suisse's fixed income business has been marked by significant milestones, including the launch of the first money market fund in 2006 and the establishment of a robust investment research framework [10][11] - The company has achieved substantial growth, with its fixed income business scale surpassing 670 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a successful transition to high-quality development [12] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its investment capabilities and continue innovating in product offerings, particularly in response to the evolving market environment and investor needs [13]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the stability and long-term performance of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management's fixed income team, highlighting their ability to navigate various market cycles while maintaining consistent returns for investors [1][10]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The fixed income team at ICBC Credit Suisse has developed a mature system to address the challenges of low yields and high volatility, focusing on macroeconomic foresight and long-term research to guide investment decisions [2][3]. - The team employs a dual pricing system based on yield spreads to identify relative value opportunities and enhance returns through dynamic asset allocation [3][4]. - The firm has built a comprehensive "super shelf" of fixed income products, offering a wide range of options tailored to different investor needs and risk profiles [8][9]. Group 2: Team and Talent - The fixed income research team has grown to 46 members, with a structured mentorship program to ensure the transfer of knowledge and expertise among team members [7][12]. - The presence of experienced fund managers with over ten years of tenure is a significant asset, contributing to the firm's stability and performance [5][6]. Group 3: Market Position and Growth - ICBC Credit Suisse has established itself as a leader in the fixed income market, with its bond fund scale surpassing 670 billion yuan by 2024, reflecting a strong market presence [12][13]. - The firm has successfully launched innovative products, such as the Sci-Tech Bond ETF, which has gained significant market traction since its inception [12][13]. Group 4: Historical Development - The firm has a clear growth trajectory since its inception in 2006, marked by key milestones such as the launch of the first money market fund and the first short-term wealth management fund in China [10][11]. - The establishment of a robust research and management framework has enabled the firm to adapt to changing market conditions and investor demands effectively [11].