专题：中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会 12月27日金融一线消息，中国财富管理50人论坛2025年会在京召开，本届年会的主题是"迈向'十五 五'建设金融强国"。光大理财总经理武兴锋参与"低利率挑战：市场价值重构与机构应对之策"圆桌讨 论。 武兴锋表示，当前我国资管行业正处于从"规模导向"向"价值导向"转型的关键阶段，低利率常态化、监 管体系日趋完善、优质资产收益持续收窄、市场分化加剧已成为行业发展的新常态。在此背景下，理财 机构如何精准战略定位、夯实核心竞争能力，实现稳健可持续发展，是行业亟待破解的重要课题。 在武兴锋看来，当前市场呈现出"理财需求持续扩容、投资回报稳步下行、产品波动有所加大"的核心特 征，这一格局既构成了行业发展的主要挑战，也为行业价值重塑提供了重要契机。 从资金端来看，居民财富配置转型趋势持续深化。截至2025年11月末，银行理财市场存续规模达31.67 万亿，公募基金规模突破36万亿，资管行业整体呈现稳步扩张态势。这一规模增长背后，既蕴含着我国 居民财富再配置的深层逻辑，也与党的二十大报告中"多渠道增加城乡居民财产性收入"的战略要求高度 契合。一方面，根据国际经验，人均GDP处于较高水 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market in 2025 is characterized as a "non-bull, non-bear volatile market," with interest rates ending a four-year downward trend and the ten-year government bond fluctuating within a narrow range of 1.6% to 1.9% [1] Summary by Themes Market Characteristics - The market is showing new characteristics such as desensitization to macroeconomic factors, increased volatility, and a seesaw effect between stocks and bonds [1] Investor Experience - This year has been particularly impactful for investors in a "low interest rate" environment, with significant reductions in coupon returns and challenges in capital gains, as well as rapid shifts in market trends [1] Key Themes in the Bond Market - Important themes for the bond market this year include: 1. Respecting trends while also trusting common sense 2. The difficulty of executing wave trading strategies 3. The presence of structural opportunities even in a volatile market 4. Profound changes in the bond market ecosystem 5. A shift in asset allocation direction, indicated by the trend of looking at stocks while investing in bonds [1]

2025 年债券市场表现低于预期，资金面宽松但市场仍震荡，反映出金 融扩张与实体融资不匹配，配债需求系统性放缓，银行理财和保险扩表 速度下降，资产配置思路转变。 信用债方面，2025 年资产荒缓解，高票息新债稀缺，信用利差收窄， 持有信用债赚取票息成为占优策略。建议关注三年以下城投债，特别是 流动性较好的区域，以获取更高收益。 固收加产品中，2025 年转债表现优于信用债和纯固收，量缩价升，价 格和估值双抬升。2026 年可转债市场大概率仍供不应求，可博弈强赎 或下修条款。 上游机构对未来利率下行观点分化，CPI 改善和 PPI 反弹预期强化。预 计 2026 年 CPI 中枢可能抬升至 0.5 附近，PPI 中枢抬升至-1~-0.5 之 间，通胀预期改变。 银行参与债券投资热情降低，即使市场表现较好时也未积极参与，表明 银行配债能力受限。大行流动性充足但一级市场消化能力强，中小行则 因成本高收益有限而缩表。 低利率，破局——2026 年债市展望 20251225 摘要 Q&A 2026 年债券市场的低利率环境将如何演变，投资者应如何应对？ 在短期内，低利率环境很难有明显变化，但投资者对于低利率环境的预期正在 ...

Core Insights - The global low-interest-rate environment is pushing the asset management industry towards an "ecological win-win" model, moving away from isolated strategies [1][3] - The discussion highlights the importance of diversified asset allocation strategies to enhance returns while managing risks in a low-yield context [3][9] Group 1: Investment Strategies - ICBC-AXA is actively exploring new investment avenues such as public REITs, convertible bonds, and preferred stocks to enhance returns [1] - The company emphasizes a pyramid asset allocation strategy, with a focus on long-term bonds as the foundation, high-grade credit bonds in the middle, and equities at the top [3][7] - Huatai-PineBridge is increasing its focus on fixed income plus strategies and exploring other asset values to meet client needs in a low-interest environment [1][2] Group 2: Market Outlook for 2026 - The stock-bond relationship is expected to continue, with potential tactical opportunities arising from a recovery in interest rates [2][6] - The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 suggests a controlled risk of recession, with expectations of a gradual recovery and stable nominal GDP growth [6] - The focus will be on the PPI trend, which is anticipated to drive corporate profit recovery [6] Group 3: Collaborative Ecosystem - The asset management ecosystem is characterized by collaboration among insurance companies, public funds, and brokerages, each bringing unique strengths [9][10] - Insurance institutions focus on strategic asset allocation, while public funds excel in tactical asset allocation and security selection [9] - Brokerages provide comprehensive research support and distribution channels, enhancing the overall investment ecosystem [10][11] Group 4: Risk Management and Client Needs - The emphasis on understanding client needs is crucial, with a focus on risk control and aligning investment strategies with client objectives [4][8] - The collaboration between insurance funds and public funds is aimed at creating value through long-term capital provision and quality asset solutions [10] - Brokerages play a vital role in customizing services for different investors, particularly in asset allocation and risk assessment [11]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the core challenges and strategic choices faced by the Chinese life insurance industry under the long-term downward trend of interest rates and the regulatory push for a "dynamic interest rate adjustment mechanism" [1] - It highlights the historical shift from traditional fixed-income products to floating-income products, particularly focusing on dividend insurance as a new growth point [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the relationship between interest rates, pricing, and product structure in navigating the current transformation logic [1] Summary by Sections Interest Rate and Pricing Relationship - The pricing of life insurance products, especially long-term savings and protection products, follows the principle of actuarial balance, where premiums are calculated based on the present value of insurance payouts divided by (1 - expense ratio) [3] - The predetermined interest rate is crucial as it represents the long-term return promised to customers and the company's liability cost [3] - Historical cases show that the global insurance industry has faced significant crises due to poor management of interest rate risks, leading to regulatory caps on predetermined interest rates to prevent systemic risks [3] Product Structure Evolution - The evolution of product structure in the Chinese life insurance market is closely linked to macroeconomic interest rate cycles and regulatory policy adjustments [6] - The regulatory environment has led to cyclical changes in product structure, with dividend insurance becoming mainstream during periods of low predetermined interest rates [3][6] Market Trends and Company Strategies - As of 2023, the downward adjustment of predetermined interest rates and the establishment of a dynamic adjustment mechanism have fundamentally impacted product structures, reducing the attractiveness of traditional fixed-income products [12] - Companies like Xinhua Insurance have seen a significant increase in the proportion of dividend insurance premiums, indicating a historical shift in product structure [10] - Major listed insurance companies are transitioning from strategic consensus to tactical execution, with differentiated paths based on their resource endowments [14] Future Growth Opportunities - The recent regulatory approval for dividend-type long-term health insurance, particularly critical illness insurance, is seen as a milestone for optimizing the industry's benefit structure and stimulating demand [17] - The potential market gap for critical illness insurance is significant, with estimates indicating a health protection gap of $143 billion in China by 2024 [19] - The development of dividend critical illness insurance is expected to follow successful models from Hong Kong, focusing on low guarantees and high dividends to address inflation concerns [20] Strategic Recommendations - Insurance companies should make clear strategic choices between low-risk, high-guarantee products for the mass market and high-risk, high-flexibility products for high-net-worth clients [22] - Enhancing long-term investment capabilities and integrating health/retirement ecosystems are essential for increasing product value and customer loyalty [23] - The transformation requires a systemic approach, considering regulatory requirements, customer needs, and economic trends, to establish a competitive advantage in the evolving market landscape [25]

记者注意到，12月以来，包括长沙银行在内，已有北京银行（601169）、上海银行（601229）、杭州银 行（600926）和南京银行（601009）等5家银行先后宣布对旗下优先股进行赎回，合计规模达458亿元。 若加上此前的工商银行（601398）、中国银行（601988）、兴业银行（601166）和宁波银行 （002142），2025年以来赎回优先股的银行数量已增加至9家。 多位研究人士表示，优先股作为银行资本工具，自2020年以后银行对其新发已几乎停滞。同时，伴随着 存量银行优先股的加速赎回并退市，存量规模愈发减少。近年来，商业银行为优化资本结构，赎回优先 股的意愿更是不断强化。在资管机构看来，银行优先股的配置稀缺性也进一步凸显。 人民财讯12月23日电，低利率环境下，上市银行赎回存量"高息"优先股以节省付息成本的动力愈发增 强。近日，长沙银行（601577）公告称，将于12月25日赎回60亿元优先股"长银优1"，并终止挂牌。 ...

白银技术分析： 白银上周调整的支撑点到64.5后就开始震荡上行，由于力度过大，现在直接到了68，那么下一波就可能 看到70高点了。本周还是维持前期的看法不变，看涨趋势不猜顶，不要做空，要做只能做回落多单。本 周下方支撑关注两个点，一个是66.5，一个是64.5，操作上建议能回落还是可以顺势做多。 市场解读： 12月22日，现货黄金上周五（12月19日）收盘上涨0.14%，收报每盎司4338.22美元，上周累计上涨 0.89%，回顾过去一周，黄金价格在白银创历史新高67.45美元的背景下，虽然一度被白银的132%年涨 幅抢镜，但黄金自身的65%年涨幅同样令人瞩目，显示出其作为核心贵金属的稳健地位。展望未来，分 析师普遍认为，黄金将在低利率环境和货币贬值压力下继续上行，甚至在2026年上半年触及4400美元的 新高。新的一周将迎来圣诞节假期，但因为美国政府停摆而延迟的三季度GDP数据将于本周公布，投资 者需要重点关注。 黄金技术分析： 上周黄金在多头趋势不变的情况下依旧看涨，并且强调上方看到4355，4385，但并非单边走势，所以上 周即要做顺势上涨空间，也要做高位回落力度。今日早上开盘，黄金继续上涨，在地缘消息 ...

活期利率逼近"0"，五年期大额存单下架，传统储蓄的吸引力正在快速消退。面对低利率环境，年轻投 资者开始转向由货币基金、债券基金和黄金基金组成的"新三金"配置，探寻资产保值增值的新玩法。 财富"三驾马车"各司其职 活钱、稳钱、长钱"稳"字当头 存款利率持续下行 理财市场迎来拐点 今年5月20日，国有六大银行完成第七轮人民币存款挂牌利率下调，活期存款利率降至0.05%，接近零 利率，1年期定存利率也降至1%以下。更值得关注的是，目前，六大国有银行已集体下架五年期大额存 单，三年期大额存单利率普遍调整至1.5%至1.75%区间，部分区域性银行甚至直接取消了三年期和五年 期的普通定期存款产品。 "低利率环境下，单纯依靠存款保值增值的难度加大。""90"后投资者郝女士感叹，这也成为当下年轻理 财人群的普遍心声。 中国人民银行发布的《2025年第三季度城镇储户问卷调查报告》显示，今年第三季度，倾向"更多储 蓄"的储户占比62.3%，较上一季度下降1.5个百分点。而倾向于"更多投资"的居民占 18.5%，比上季高 5.6个百分点。居民偏爱的前五位投资方式依次为："银行非保本理财""基金信托产品""股票""债 券"和"非消费 ...

低利率时代，如何"稳稳地"追求增强收益？低波固收+产品以其清晰的风险预算和多元的收益来源，正 成为稳健投资者的"心头好"。 组合管理：纪律先行，稳住仓位中枢 组合管理首重纪律性，需确立与风险目标匹配的权益仓位中枢，避免频繁择时。根据我们测算，将权益 仓位稳定在10%左右，产品最大回撤通常能控制在2%以内；一旦权益仓位飙高，产品的低波属性就会 打折扣，夏普比率也会随之削弱。此外，面对诸如2007年、2013年、2015年及2016年等年份的极端市场 情景，仍需采取适当的仓位管理措施以规避尾部风险。需指出的是，频繁择时带来的超额收益往往不显 著且缺乏持续性，虽然在极端市场中可能有效，但一旦判断失误，回撤风险亦不容忽视。 这类产品的目标非常纯粹：严控回撤、力争超额，努力让投资者在任何时点买入并持有一段时间后，都 能有个不错的持有体验。要实现这种"鱼与熊掌兼得"的效果，笔者认为规则化的投资理念是破局的关 键。从组合构建、个股精选到交易执行，都需有章可循。 配置策略：均衡有道，动态把握市场脉搏 在配置策略方面，应基于基准，保持适度均衡，并依规则对行业与风格偏离进行日常管理。以下几点原 则可供参考： （1） 安全边际是" ...

日期：2025年12月19日 1. 低利率环境如何演变 | 姓 | 名 | 齐晟（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 杜林（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 王静颖（证券分析师） | 姓 | 名 | 徐沛翔（证券分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮 | 箱 | qisheng@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | dulin@orientsec.co | 邮 | 箱 | wangjingying@orient | 邮 | 箱 | xupeixiang@orientse | | | | m.cn | | | m.cn | | | sec.com.cn | | | c.com.cn | | 电 | 话 | 18930809670 | 电 | 话 | 17611226630 | 电 | 话 | 15674975413 | 电 | 话 | 13317003002 | | | 执业证书编号 | S0860521120001 | | 执业证书编号 | S0860522080004 | ...