Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core Viewpoints - This week (0126 - 0130), there were significant fluctuations in major asset classes. The short - term yields of US stocks, precious metals, and US bonds were significantly adjusted, and the US dollar was slightly repaired. The market believes that the Fed's interest rate cut path in 2026 may remain restrained. The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets such as US bonds and gold will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [1]. - Overseas uncertainties have led to significant fluctuations in domestic risk - based assets. The report previously suggested that the convertible bond strategy should prioritize "controlling drawdowns" and also pay attention to high - probability pro - cyclical targets. Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [1]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1. Overall Decline in the Equity Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the equity market as a whole declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.44% to close at 4117.95 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.62% to close at 14205.89 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.09% to close at 3346.36 points. The CSI 300 rose 0.08% to close at 4706.34 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 2615.81 billion yuan to 30365.33 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 9.43% [6][9]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 10 industries closed up, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, coal, non - ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, rising 7.95%, 5.83%, 3.68%, 3.37%, and 1.82% respectively. National defense and military industry, power equipment, automobiles, computers, and commercial retail led the losses, with declines of 7.69%, 5.10%, 5.08%, 4.77%, and 4.18% respectively [12]. 1.2. Overall Decline in the Convertible Bond Market - From January 26th to January 30th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.61%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 9 industries closed up, with 2 industries having a gain of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, building materials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, and building decoration led the gains, rising 5.74%, 2.73%, 1.62%, 1.22%, and 0.68% respectively. Household appliances, computers, power equipment, commercial retail, and national defense and military industry led the losses, falling 10.21%, 7.52%, 6.87%, 5.84%, and 5.56% respectively [13]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 902.09 billion yuan, a significant reduction of 30.87 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 3.31%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Shuangliang Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, Zhekuang Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Aofei Convertible Bond, Tianzhun Convertible Bond, Outong Convertible Bond, Huayi Convertible Bond, Liyang Convertible Bond, and Yunji Convertible Bond. The average trading volume of the top ten convertible bonds reached 93.23 billion yuan, with the first - ranked trading volume reaching 179.39 billion yuan [13]. - Approximately 24.22% of the individual convertible bonds rose, about 6.51% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain in the 0 - 1% range, and 13.28% of the individual convertible bonds had a gain of more than 2% [13]. - The overall market conversion premium rate declined this week, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 42.75%, a decrease of 12.58 pcts compared to last week. In terms of price ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the price range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other price ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the 100 - 110 yuan price range having the largest widening amplitude of 22.90 pcts. In terms of parity ranges, except for the convertible bonds in the parity range below 90 yuan, the average daily conversion premium rates of convertible bonds in other parity ranges widened, with the convertible bonds in the parity range above 120 yuan having the largest widening amplitude of 3.44 pcts [18]. - In terms of the premium rate changes of each industry, the conversion premium rates of 19 industries widened this week, with 6 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2 pcts. Household appliances, media, food and beverages, commercial retail, and automobiles led the widening amplitude, reaching 7.00 pcts, 4.59 pcts, 3.35 pcts, 2.81 pcts, and 2.78 pcts respectively. Social services, petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 8.83 pcts, 5.29 pcts, 3.41 pcts, 3.04 pcts, and 2.62 pcts respectively [26]. - In terms of conversion parity, the parity of 13 industries increased this week, with 10 industries having a widening amplitude of more than 2%. Petroleum and petrochemicals, communications, steel, non - ferrous metals, and building materials led the widening amplitude, reaching 6.37%, 4.42%, 4.41%, 4.04%, and 3.91% respectively. Household appliances, commercial retail, building decoration, media, and beauty care led the narrowing amplitude, reaching 3.90%, 2.46%, 2.25%, 1.91%, and 1.70% respectively [29]. 1.3. Comparison of Stock - Bond Market Sentiments - From January 26th to January 30th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were both negative, and the weekly gain of convertible bonds was greater than that of underlying stocks. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 3.31% week - on - week and was at the 84.80% quantile level since 2022; the trading volume of the underlying stock market increased by 82.04% week - on - week and was at the 97.00% quantile level since 2022. The trading volume of the underlying stocks increased while that of the convertible bonds decreased, and the increase in the trading volume of the underlying stocks was greater and at a higher quantile level. In terms of the proportion of rising and falling stocks, about 13.04% of the convertible bonds and about 23.48% of the underlying stocks closed up this week; about 53.33% of the convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than the underlying stocks. In summary, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [32]. 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - The report maintains the previous view that a low - interest - rate environment is necessary and effective, and safe - haven assets will still face increased allocation after short - term fluctuations. Currently, there are no necessary conditions for the Fed's monetary policy to shift [37]. - Subjectively, it is recommended to conduct high - low switching within convertible bonds to control drawdowns and adopt a "dumbbell" - type allocation for hedging. In the medium - term, it is difficult to infer a scenario of overall valuation compression for convertible bonds. The core is to control drawdowns, emphasize timing, and balance the rhythm and structure of convertible bond allocation [38]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for par premium rate repair next week are: Liqun Convertible Bond, Bengang Convertible Bond, Guotou Convertible Bond, Industrial Convertible Bond, Nenghua Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond 2, Wentai Convertible Bond, Lutai Convertible Bond, Yingfeng Convertible Bond, and Lianchuang Convertible Bond [39]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260201 债市窄幅震荡中等待新催化（2026 年第 5 期） 2026 年 02 月 01 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐沐阳 执业证书：S0600523060003 xumy@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《绿色债券周度数据跟踪（20260126- 20260130）》 2026-01-31 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20260126-20260130）》 2026-01-31 东吴证券研究所 1 / 38 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 如何看待 2026 年 1 月的 PMI 数据，以及央行针对非银机构的流动性安 排？本周（2026.1.26-2026.1.30），10 年期国债活跃 ...

"现在存款利息太低了。"她决定不再全部续存。近期，张晴前往多家银行网点咨询能否买到年化 收益率3%、具备"保本"属性的固收类理财产品。 "3%是我的底线。收益率低于3%，我不会考虑购买相关理财产品。"张晴说。 像张晴这样为到期定存寻找可靠去处的储户还有很多。国信证券基于六大行2025年中报数据估 计，2026年到期的定期存款规模约为57万亿元，且主要到期时段集中在年初。 当前金融市场普遍关注2026年大量到期定期存款的流向。在3 年期定期存款利率走低至1.25%，甚至低于回购利率的历史罕 见背景下，资金寻找替代投向的需求强烈，预计2026年大概 率会出现定期存款向理财转化的趋势。 作者：陈植 封图：图虫创意 2026年2月初，张晴有一笔40万元的3年期存款到期。 利率下行引发存款持续流失，部分中小银行稳健运营承压。在一家西部地区农商行任零售业务部主 管的段涛感慨地说："对居民而言，这或许是一场存款利息收入保卫战；但对我们而言，这也是一 场关乎中小银行生死的大考验。" 家庭收支盘算 近期，张晴跑了多家上海地区的银行网点，发现3年期存款的最高利率只有1.8%。而3年前，同期 限存款利率为3.1%。 张晴在一家民营 ...

Core Insights - The banking industry is shifting its focus from traditional deposit products to insurance products, particularly dividend insurance, in response to declining deposit interest rates [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Trends - Banks are no longer emphasizing deposit renewals but are instead promoting insurance products like dividend insurance and annuity insurance to clients [1][2] - The trend reflects a broader resurgence of the bank-insurance channel, as insurance products offer long-term yield locking advantages in a low-interest-rate environment [1][3] Group 2: Product Details - The recommended dividend insurance products provide a fixed return of 1.75% plus potential floating dividends, appealing to clients seeking long-term value [3][4] - For example, a specific dividend insurance product has a three-year accumulation period with an annual return of approximately 3.2%, with total benefits projected to grow significantly over 20 years [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly considering insurance products when faced with significantly reduced deposit rates, with many opting for these products if they do not need immediate access to their funds [2][4] - The insurance products are seen as a way to secure current interest rates, making them attractive to clients with a longer investment horizon [2][4]

昨晚的文章无了，但市场解读相关的文字和图片，已经汇总发在了星球和表韭投顾持有人群里，如还未入群的伙伴，可以参考公众号菜单栏的入 口。 另外，很高兴地收到了Qeubee颁发的一个年度奖项 （在没有拉票，且没有想唱空但为了奖项继续唱多的背景下） ，很多人喜欢把债券和股票视作二元对立的关 系，但事实上，两者是多资产环境的有机组成部分，咱们最近2年，持续分享的主线就是，重视前所未有的低利率环境，拥抱优质股权投资的大 时代，在《 2026十大预测 》里，也提到： " 前所未有的低利率环境继续 —— 和 2025 年一样，我们观察债券的走势，本质上是 ' 春江水暖鸭先知 ' ，通过利率的变化，掌握融资需求和经济 增速的变化， 理解利率对股市估值的影响，从而对权益资产的仓位、方向等，做出调整。 " 往后，本账号会继续为大家分享理性、有益的信息，再次感谢CCTV、MTV、 Channel V 把这个奖颁给我。 蟹蟹！ 这篇文章，比平时多1000多字，建议收藏、分享，慢慢看。 2026年1月还剩2个交易日，我们1月6日在《 史上最强开门红？ 》提到的"史上最强"，也基本见了分晓——1月，在宽基ETF累计卖出超过7000亿 的背 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging environment for commercial banks in China, with a focus on the narrowing net interest margin (NIM) and profitability under a low interest rate regime [2]. Core Insights - The net interest margin of Chinese commercial banks has been declining, reaching 1.42% in the first three quarters of 2025, with a notable "inversion" between NIM and non-performing loan rates, posing significant challenges to the traditional profit model reliant on interest rate spreads [2][7]. - Leading banks are adjusting their asset-liability structures to stabilize and potentially recover NIM, while regulatory bodies are enhancing guidance through self-regulatory mechanisms and policy tools to maintain reasonable NIM levels [2][34]. - The report anticipates that the rate of decline in NIM may slow, but some banks may still experience low or negative NIM, necessitating ongoing attention to their long-term profitability and credit quality [2][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition of Net Interest Margin - Net interest margin (NIM) is a key indicator of bank profitability, reflecting the ability to earn net interest income through core operations, influenced by asset pricing, liability costs, and the structure of assets and liabilities [4]. 2. Current Status and Influencing Factors of NIM - Since 2015, China's commercial banks have experienced two significant downward cycles in NIM, with a cumulative decline of approximately 100 basis points from around 2.5% to about 1.42% by mid-2025 [6][7]. - Factors affecting NIM include declining LPR rates, increased competition, and changes in loan structures, leading to lower interest income and profitability [10][18]. 3. Short-term Responses of Commercial Banks - In response to low NIM, banks are focusing on enhancing asset yields, reducing liability costs, and expanding non-interest income to stabilize overall profitability [30]. - Banks are increasing their allocation to financial assets and enhancing bond trading capabilities, with financial assets constituting 31.25% of total assets by mid-2025 [31]. - Efforts to lower liability costs include adjusting deposit structures and rates, optimizing funding sources, and managing high-cost products [32][33]. 4. Conclusion and Outlook - The narrowing of NIM is a result of both cyclical and structural factors, posing core challenges to traditional profit models [34]. - The report suggests that banks with strong pricing capabilities, stable low-cost funding, and diversified income structures are likely to navigate the cycle successfully, while others may face ongoing pressure on NIM and profitability [35].

本报记者 彭妍 近期，大批中小银行密集推出大额存单产品。记者注意到，这些产品年利率普遍降至"1字头"，短期化 特征也愈发凸显——1年期以下短期产品显著增多，3年期产品数量占比不足三成，5年期产品已难觅踪 迹。 受访人士表示，这一现象背后，是低利率环境下中小银行对负债端的主动调整：一方面是为吸纳存款、 稳定负债规模；另一方面，在资产收益率下行压力下，主动褪去"利率高地"的定位，通过精细化管控负 债成本，避免盲目高息揽储加剧息差收窄。未来，行业竞争或将从单纯利率比拼，转向服务与产品差异 化创新的赛道。 发行节奏显著加快 1月份以来，中小银行迎来一轮大额存单发行热潮。据统计，开年至今，中小银行发布的大额存单发行 公告已超200条，发行节奏显著加快。仅1月26日当天，灌云农商银行、苏州农商银行、阳城农商银行、 吉安农商银行、淮南通商农商银行、淮北农商银行、三河农商银行、贵州兴义农商银行、颍泉农商银行 等10多家中小银行，同步新发多款不同期限的大额存单产品；1月22日，常熟银行、金湖农商银行、高 平农商银行、嵩明农商银行和珠海农商银行5家机构，集中推出了多期大额存单产品。 值得关注的是，此次新发行的大额存单，短期化特征 ...

清晨的阳光照进银行大厅，玻璃门上贴着的"大额存单利率"数字从年初的"1字头"变成了现在的"0字头"。2026年一开年，关于"巨额定期存款流向哪儿"的 讨论开始升温。 随着一年期定存利率破"1"成为现实，过去享受"3字头"利率的定存资金，现在急需寻找新的理财替代品。 固收+产品：稳健理财的新选择 面对存款利率持续下行的趋势，"固收+"基金成为不少投资者的新选择。这类产品通过"债券打底+权益增强"的策略，在控制风险的同时寻求适度收益。 根据中金公司的测算数据，2026年一季度居民1年期及以上定期存款到期规模将达29万亿元。而天风证券的研究显示，2026年全年到期存款规模约73万 亿，较2025年提升约12万亿。尽管各家数据略有差异，但一个共识正在形成：平均约50万亿元定期存款，正面临到期再配置的压力。 到期压力 从银行公开信息来看，2026年多家银行新发行的1年期以下大额存单利率已跌破1%，部分产品收益甚至低于同期货币基金。 在存款集中到期与银行息差承压的双重背景下，储户间正掀起新一轮存款搬家潮。 分析背后原因，银行的净息差持续处于低位。数据显示，截至2025年第三季，商业银行净息差收窄至1.42%。 2025年 ...

【导读】环比大增420%，最短持有期理财产品受青睐 中国基金报记者 李树超 张玲 随着行情持续回暖，理财新发市场逐渐活跃，最短持有期产品尤其受到资金青睐，2025年12 月募集规模环比增逾4倍。 业内人士认为，多重因素推动最短持有期产品新发规模大增。普通投资者应根据自身需求匹 配不同期限理财产品，避免盲目追高。 最短持有期产品新发规模大增 中国理财网显示，1月以来，上银理财、信银理财、招银理财、青银理财等理财公司已累计发 布超20只最短持有期产品。同时，信银理财，浙江富阳农商银行、萧山农商银行旗下共9只最 短持有期产品处于待售状态。 Wind数据显示，2025年12月，理财新发规模达4631.76亿元，环比增长29.2%。其中，最 短持有期产品新发规模为近4个月最高，7天～1个月期限产品规模环比大增420.4%。 睿智新虹理财研究院表示，最短持有期理财产品能较好地平衡收益与流动性。对于投资者而 言，该类产品每日可以申购，享有"持有期后近似活期"的流动性体验，且其收益水平通常高 于日开放型产品。对于理财机构而言，设置固定持有期有助于缓解资金流动性管理的压力， 使其可以适当配置期限较长、收益较高的资产，进一步支撑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900), which saw a rise of 1.54% as of the report date [1] - The fourth-quarter report for 2025 indicates that the profit for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) was 48.31 million yuan, with an annual profit of 228 million yuan for the entire year [1] - Guojin Securities recommends constructing a "Technology & Resources & Dividend" three-dimensional structure, emphasizing the financial sector as a strategic base to enhance defensiveness and provide continuous dividend returns [1] Group 2 - Cai Xin Securities notes that the current economic internal momentum is weak, with retail credit still needing recovery, while the supportive monetary policy remains unchanged, indicating that monetary easing is still the main direction [1] - The low-risk interest rate environment and asset scarcity backdrop suggest that the value of dividend allocation remains fundamental, with undervalued and high-dividend investment targets possessing long-term logic [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend ETF Guangfa (520900) and its off-market connections (022719/022720) provide investors with a convenient entry point to allocate to Hong Kong dividend assets, allowing for stable returns and long-term value [1]