Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that true incremental demand relies not only on subsidies but also on supply-side optimization and the cultivation of consumer mindset and habits [1][3] - In Q2, Meituan reported revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, while adjusted net profit fell by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan [1] - CEO Wang Xing stated that Meituan opposes internal competition but acknowledges the ongoing fierce competition in the takeaway market, asserting that the company will continue to defend its market position [1][3] Group 2 - Meituan has seen significant growth in the lower-tier markets for instant retail, with a year-on-year increase of 50%, and plans to enhance differentiated supply and expand categories [3] - The company prioritizes growth over profitability to maintain its leading position, although subsidies are expected to decrease over time [3] - Meituan's international expansion has made notable progress, with strong growth in order volume and GTV for its Keeta platform, and the company is optimistic about entering the Brazilian market [4][5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report [1][3] 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term outlook is bullish, while medium - term is range - bound. In the short run, the overall macro sentiment is positive, with the equity market being excited before the parade, driving commodities to perform strongly. The rubber sector, with a neutral fundamental situation, follows the commodity index. Also, although the anti - involution policy is not as aggressive in the short term, it has a long - term policy tone, and the expectations of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization support the overall valuation of commodities. In the medium term, as the price increase is mainly speculative and there is no obvious fundamental driver, the futures price has gradually become at a premium to the spot price. After the commodity sector returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [3] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract) on August 27, 2025, the daily closing price was 11,845 yuan/ton (down 165 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 112,447 lots (down 42,957 lots), the open interest was 43,120 lots (down 3,585 lots), and the turnover was 673.629 million yuan (down 253.24 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was 155 yuan (up 265 yuan), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 was - 15 yuan (up 10 yuan). The prices of butadiene in North China, East China, and South China (private enterprises) increased by 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) was 12,000 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan), the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) increased by 100 yuan and 150 yuan respectively, and the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong mainstream markets increased by 50 yuan [1] - **Fundamental Indicators**: The butadiene rubber operating rate was 76.1855% (up 0.44% from the previous day), the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,285 yuan/ton (up 103 yuan), and the butadiene rubber profit was - 185 yuan/ton (up 97 yuan) [1] - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 20, 2025 (week 34), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons or 0.56%. In this period, most butadiene rubber plants that had been under maintenance restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price rose further under the influence of capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the slow terminal sales due to strong downstream price - pressing sentiment led to a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2, 2] interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5% in H1 2025, achieving a total revenue of 14.74 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 34.8% year-on-year to 760 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on profitability [4][5]. - The company's three main business segments—chemical new materials, basic chemicals, and fertilizer products—reported revenues of 9.74 billion, 2.96 billion, and 1.78 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.4%, 5.1%, and 22.4% [5]. - The report highlights that the decline in product prices due to supply-demand dynamics has impacted overall gross and net profit margins, which are at 12.9% and 5.2% respectively, down by 5.1 and 3.2 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 14.74 billion yuan, with a net profit of 760 million yuan, reflecting a significant decline compared to the previous year [4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw a revenue of 7.45 billion yuan, with a net profit of 350 million yuan, indicating a quarter-on-quarter decline of 41.9% [4]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.85 billion, 2.78 billion, and 3.63 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 9, and 7 times based on the closing price of 13.27 yuan on August 25 [8][10]. Market Data - As of August 25, 2025, the closing price of the company's stock was 13.27 yuan, with a market capitalization of 25.348 billion yuan [2]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date high of 13.76 yuan and a low of 9.59 yuan [2]. - The company has a total of 1.91 billion circulating A-shares, representing a market value of 25.268 billion yuan [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers short - term and medium - term trend analyses for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. It also takes into account factors such as supply - demand balance, device operations, and market sentiment [2][9][10] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, trend is strong, and positive spreads are recommended. The restart of some PX devices is postponed, and with the commissioning of new PTA devices, short - term supply is tight. Polyester demand is gradually recovering [2][6][9] - **PTA**: Unilateral price is strong, recommend buying on dips, and focus on positive spreads. This week, PTA device operations decreased, and it is in a de - stocking pattern. Demand is seasonally improving [2][10] - **MEG**: Short - term trend is strong, recommend 9 - 1 positive spreads, but there is significant pressure above 4600. Port inventory is decreasing, but there is supply pressure in the 01 contract [2][10] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - **Rubber**: It is in a volatile state. The inventory in Qingdao has decreased, and the market is affected by factors such as futures prices and substitute prices [2][11][14] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term is strong, but medium - term is in a range - bound state. Driven by macro - sentiment and natural rubber trends, but the fundamentals lack obvious drivers [2][16][17] Asphalt - The cracking spread continues to weaken. September's production is expected to increase, and the inventory of some regions has changed. It follows the oil price to fluctuate within a range [2][18][32] LLDPE and PP - **LLDPE**: Short - term is strongly volatile. Cost rebounds, demand improves, and inventory is low. However, there may be a short - term supply pressure relief in September [2][35][36] - **PP**: Short - term rebounds, medium - term is in a range - bound state. Short - term demand improves, but the long - term supply pressure increases as new capacity is put into operation [2][39][40] Caustic Soda - Short - term correction, pay attention to the pressure of near - month warehouse receipts. The demand is expanding, especially in the alumina industry. The export also provides support, but the supply side is restricted by the weakness of PVC [2][44][46] Pulp - It is in a volatile state. The market shows a pattern of strong broad - leaf pulp and stable softwood pulp. The core contradiction lies in the game between high international quotes and weak domestic reality [2][50][53] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, with rigid demand replenishment increasing slightly, but the high - inventory contradiction still exists [2][55][56] Methanol - Short - term is volatile with support. Macro - sentiment drives it to rise, but the port inventory pressure is large, and the medium - term may correct under the high - premium pattern [2][58][60] Urea - It is in a weak state. The inventory of enterprises has increased, and the market is in a process of weakening speculation. Although macro - factors provide some support, the long - term fundamentals are still weak [2][62][65] Styrene - Short - term is strong, medium - term is bearish. As the downstream enters the seasonal bottom - fishing stage, the short - term inventory is decreasing, but the long - term demand for replenishment is insufficient [2][66][67] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The market is weakly volatile, with device operations fluctuating slightly and downstream demand being cautious [2][68][70] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Import cost provides support, but supply - demand lacks obvious improvement. CP prices have increased, and there are many device maintenance plans [2][72][76] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand is in tight balance, and the price is strongly sorted. There is a certain relationship with the spread of related contracts [2][72] PVC - The trend is under pressure. Although short - term volatility is affected by anti - involution sentiment, the supply side has high operations, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2][79][80] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a high - level volatile state at night, and the short - term strength continues. Futures prices and spot prices have increased [2][82] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Near - month contracts continue to rise, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has temporarily stabilized [2][82] Container Freight Index (European Line) - It may continue to be weakly volatile. Freight rates have declined, and factors such as futures prices, freight rate indices, and carrier prices need to be considered [2][84]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook**: Para-xylene, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber (short-term), LLDPE, caustic soda, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil [2][8][9][10][18][36][45][81] - **Neutral Outlook**: Rubber, asphalt, PP, pulp, glass, methanol, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC [2][12][18][19][27][40][49][54][58][64][66][69][74][78] - **Negative Outlook**: Urea, container shipping index (European line) [2][63][83] Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy and chemical futures, presenting trends, strengths, and investment suggestions for each commodity. Market conditions are influenced by factors such as supply-demand dynamics, cost changes, and macroeconomic policies [2][8][9][10]. - Short-term trends are affected by macro sentiment, policy expectations, and seasonal factors, while long-term trends depend on fundamental supply and demand [18][58][64]. Summary by Commodity Para-xylene, PTA, MEG - **Para-xylene**: Trend is strong, with positive spreads. Suggested to buy on dips and focus on 11-1 positive spread positions. PX-MX spread expansion may boost supply, and polyester demand recovery supports prices [8]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is strong. Suggested to buy on dips, focus on basis and monthly spread positive spreads, and go long PTA and short PX (11 contract). Supply decreased this week, and demand is seasonally improving [9]. - **MEG**: Short-term trend is strong, but there is pressure above 4600. Suggested to focus on 1-5 reverse spread. Domestic device maintenance is over, and imports are low, but there is supply pressure in October [10]. Rubber - **Trend**: Oscillating. July tire exports reached a new high, but August exports to the EU may decline [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Trend**: Short-term is strong, medium-term is range-bound. Short-term macro sentiment is positive, and long-term "anti-involution" policies support valuations [16][18]. Asphalt - **Trend**: Oil prices are slightly strong, and cracking spreads are falling. September domestic asphalt production is expected to increase, but recent shipments and capacity utilization have decreased [19][33]. LLDPE - **Trend**: Short-term is strongly oscillating. Cost rebounds, demand improves, and inventory is low. September Zhenhai Refining and Chemical maintenance may relieve supply pressure [35][36]. PP - **Trend**: Short-term rebound, medium-term oscillating. Short-term demand improves, and cost rebounds, but long-term supply pressure increases [39][40]. Caustic Soda - **Trend**: Bullish. Demand is expanding, especially from alumina. Supply may be limited by the weakness of chlorine-consuming downstream industries [45]. Pulp - **Trend**: Oscillating. Supply is abundant, cost support is weak, and demand is sluggish [49][50][52]. Glass - **Trend**: Original sheet prices are stable. Market trading is average, and downstream replenishment is mainly based on rigid demand [54]. Methanol - **Trend**: Short-term is oscillating with support, medium-term is range-bound. Macro sentiment is positive, but port inventory is high [56][58]. Urea - **Trend**: Weak. Inventory is increasing, and short-term prices are falling. Medium-term prices may fluctuate due to macro sentiment and policy expectations [62][63][64]. Styrene - **Trend**: Short-term is strong, medium-term is bearish. Downstream inventory is at a medium-high level, and the short-term market is oscillating [65][66]. Soda Ash - **Trend**: Spot market is stable. Supply is decreasing, and demand is average. The market is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short term [69]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Import cost provides support, but supply-demand improvement is limited [71]. - **Propylene**: Supply-demand is in tight balance, and prices are consolidating strongly [71]. PVC - **Trend**: Short-term is oscillating, long-term is under pressure. Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [78]. Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Uptrend is obvious, and short-term strength will continue [81]. - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Relatively weaker than high-sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high and low sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [81]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Trend**: Weakly oscillating. Freight rates are declining, and market sentiment is cautious [83].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - Short - term outlook for synthetic rubber is bullish, while the medium - term outlook remains range - bound. In the short term, the overall macro sentiment is warm, with the pre - parade equity market excitement driving commodities higher. The rubber sector follows the commodity index. Also, the "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies support the overall valuation of commodities. In the medium term, the futures price increase is mainly speculative, and after the commodity market returns to fundamental trading, the futures price is expected to correct to the fundamental valuation range [3] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber (BR) futures, the closing price of the main contract dropped from 11,775 yuan/ton to 11,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased from 106,881 lots to 89,334 lots, and the open interest decreased from 38,436 lots to 35,755 lots. The trading value decreased from 630,298 ten - thousand yuan to 522,802 ten - thousand yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong BR - futures main contract increased from - 25 to 90, and the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) increased from - 20 to 20. The prices of North China, East China, and South China private BR decreased by 50 yuan/ton each [1] - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong BR (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (SBR) (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 50 yuan/ton each. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate increased from 75.4881% to 75.8368%, an increase of 0.35%. The theoretical full cost and profit of butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 12,182 yuan/ton and - 282 yuan/ton respectively [1] b) Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.06 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons or 0.56%. Most previously shut - down butadiene rubber plants restarted, increasing domestic production. The spot market price rose due to capital speculation and natural rubber market trends, but downstream procurement led to slow terminal sales. Sample production enterprise inventory decreased slightly, while sample trading enterprise inventory increased [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals at ports eases the tight supply situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, and the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase [3]. - In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling butadiene rubber at low valuations. This is because the "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the rubber sector and butadiene fundamentals are neutral. Synthetic rubber has been de - stocking slightly for several weeks, and the sales pressure of butadiene factories is not significant, providing support for pricing [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 11,715 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 67,123 lots to 169,064 lots, the open interest decreased by 89 lots to 35,691 lots, and the turnover increased by 372,052 ten - thousand yuan to 977,025 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis difference between Shandong butadiene and the futures main contract increased by 25 to - 65, the monthly spread BR09 - BR10 remained unchanged at - 10. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, the Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 160 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. Most overhauled butadiene rubber plants restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price increased due to capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the downstream's price - pressing procurement led to slow terminal sales, with a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report on August 21, 2025, covering various energy and chemical products [1]. 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual product ratings: - Bullish: p-Xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Caustic Soda [2][4][11][42] - Bearish: Glass, Soda Ash [52][65] - Neutral: Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][15][18][34][38][47][54][59][62][67][79][82] - Hold 10 short positions (discretionary): Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2] 2. Core Views - **p-Xylene, PTA, MEG**: p-Xylene has cost support and improving demand, PTA has strong cost support and improving terminal demand, and MEG has reduced imports and inventory, all expected to be bullish in the short term [4][9][10]. - **Rubber**: It shows a volatile and bullish trend, with futures prices rising and inventory decreasing [11][12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increased butadiene supply and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [15][17]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and bearish, with a decline in cracking spread, increasing production in September, and decreasing capacity utilization [18][32]. - **LLDPE**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term influence from industry sentiment, decreasing maintenance in August, and improving demand in the future [34][35]. - **PP**: It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious due to uncertain cost and policy factors [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated bullishly, with increasing demand from alumina and export support, despite potential supply limitations [42][44]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to trade in a range, with weak demand and limited support from the paper market [47][48]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable, with general market trading and limited improvement in downstream demand [51][52]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increasing port inventory and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [54][57][58]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term, with increasing inventory and support from export information [59][60][61]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range, with downstream inventory at a medium-high level and limited replenishment power [62][63]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with weak market trends, stable production, and general downstream demand [65]. - **LPG, Propylene**: They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes, and the PDH operating rate has increased [67]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure, due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [79]. - **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night with reduced short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly with a falling high - low sulfur spread [82]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions discretionarily, with declining European shipping rates [84]. 3. Summary by Product p-Xylene, PTA, MEG - **p-Xylene**: Yesterday's closing price was 6844, up 1.03%. PX9 - 1 closed at 88. The spot price was 838 dollars/ton, up 2.83 dollars. Overnight crude oil inventory decreased, and PX is expected to rebound with cost support and improving demand. Pay attention to the 11 - 01 positive spread [5][9]. - **PTA**: Yesterday's closing price was 4778, up 0.93%. PTA9 - 1 closed at - 56. The spot price was stable at 4690 yuan/ton. It has strong cost support, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread can be held [5][8][10]. - **MEG**: Yesterday's closing price was 4477, up 1.20%. MEG9 - 1 closed at - 50. The spot price was 4502 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. Korean petrochemicals will cut capacity, and MEG is expected to be bullish in the short term with reduced imports and inventory. The 9 - 1 spread can be operated in the - 50 - 0 range [5][8][10]. Rubber - Yesterday's day - session closing price was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, and the night - session closing price was 15,755 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The day - session closing price of butadiene rubber was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The inventory of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [15]. Asphalt - BU2509 closed at 3,493 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and BU2510 closed at 3,454 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [18]. LLDPE - L2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The market price continued to decline slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [34]. PP - PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The market price was weak. It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious [38][39]. Caustic Soda - The 11 - contract futures price was 2698 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton. It should be treated bullishly due to increasing demand [42][44]. Pulp - The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The demand from the paper market was weak. It is expected to trade in a range [48]. Glass - FG601 closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 4.36%. The spot price was stable with general trading. It shows a bearish trend [52]. Methanol - The main contract closed at 2,424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The port inventory increased. It is expected to trade within a range [55][57]. Urea - The closing price was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The enterprise inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term [59][60]. Styrene - The 2509 contract closed at 7,261 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The downstream inventory was at a medium - high level. It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range [62][63]. Soda Ash - SA2601 closed at 1,309 yuan/ton, down 5.01%. The spot market was weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile [65]. LPG, Propylene - PG2509 closed at 3,890 yuan/ton, up 0.99%, and PL2601 closed at 6,446 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The PDH operating rate increased. They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes [67]. PVC - The 01 - contract futures price was 5008 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton. It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU2510 closed at 2,718 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and LU2510 closed at 3,446 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - EC2510 closed at 1,355.0, down 1.33%. The European shipping rates declined. Hold 10 short positions discretionarily [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices are approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation and will gradually face pressure, while the medium - term trend remains range - bound. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals eases the tight port situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, so the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling at the low valuation of butadiene rubber. There are two main reasons: first, the anti - involution policy, although not radical in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; second, the fundamentals of the rubber sector and butadiene are neutral, and the continuous de - stocking of synthetic rubber for several weeks and the lack of obvious sales pressure on butadiene rubber factories support the pricing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,840 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 101,941 lots (up 40,936 lots), the open interest was 35,780 lots (up 4,178 lots), and the trading volume was 604.973 million yuan (up 244.592 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 90 (down 40), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 (private) was - 10 (down 5). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) all increased by 100 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,350 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) increased by 100 yuan to 11,350 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan to 9,350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 9,450 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - As of August 13, 2025 (week 33), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. Due to the unstable output of previously shut - down devices and the influence of stronger raw materials and natural rubber, the inventory level continued to decline [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend outlooks for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, etc., with different trends such as strong, weak, and neutral [2][10][11]. - For each commodity, the report analyzes factors like cost, supply, demand, and inventory to form views and suggestions on trading strategies [10][11][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the 9 - 1 month - spread continues to strengthen. PX may be stronger than oil prices, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart progress of Fuhua Group [10]. - **PTA**: The unilateral price is in a volatile market with limited downside space. The supply is marginally tightened, and the demand improves month - on - month. It is recommended to maintain the 9 - 1 reverse spread [11]. - **MEG**: Import arrivals decrease, and there is marginal destocking. The 9 - 1 month - spread should be operated in the range of - 50 to 0, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread is recommended. The basis strengthens [11]. Rubber - The rubber market is in a weakly volatile trend. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increase, and the basis and spread show certain changes. The automobile industry has policy support, but there are still limitations to the growth of commercial vehicle production and sales [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - In the short - term, there is a callback, and in the medium - term, it remains range - bound. The inventory of high - cis polybutadiene rubber has decreased. In the short - term, the support from butadiene weakens, while in the medium - term, there are factors supporting the price [16][18]. Asphalt - The shipment is not good, and it is difficult for crude oil to be bullish. The production volume in September is expected to increase, and the factory inventory has accumulated. The market is in a neutral trend [19][33]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound trend. The cost decreases due to the decline in crude oil prices. The supply pressure increases, but there may be a phased relief in September. The demand will improve gradually, and the inventory provides some support [35][36]. PP - The trend is weak, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious. The cost is weak, the demand has no obvious highlights, and the supply pressure increases. However, there is uncertainty in the cost, and attention should be paid to the low - level support [38][39]. Caustic Soda - It should be treated bullishly, but attention should be paid to the near - month warehouse receipts. The demand is expanding, especially the demand from alumina. The export support is strong, but the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream may limit the profit expansion [42][43]. Pulp - It is in a volatile trend. The trading volume and open interest of the futures market increase, and the basis strengthens. The international price of pulp is weak, and the demand market is sluggish [45][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price decreases, and the basis weakens. The market trading is average, but the downstream rigid demand has increased slightly [51][52]. Methanol - It is in a volatile trend. The port inventory accumulates, and in the short - term, the 01 contract is weak due to the high inventory. In the medium - term, there are factors supporting the price [54][57]. Urea - In the short - term, it is driven by news, and the upside space is narrowing. The enterprise inventory has increased, and the market speculation is strong. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and speculative sentiment [59][60]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The market is weakly volatile, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [62][64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. The futures prices of different contracts show certain changes, and the spread also changes [67][68]. - **Propylene**: The cost support is weak. The PDH and other industrial chain operating rates show some changes [68]. PVC - The trend is weak. India's anti - dumping tax on PVC exports from China will affect export competitiveness. The supply is at a high level, the domestic demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates [75]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a weakly volatile trend with reduced short - term fluctuations. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a narrow - range consolidation, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the external market rebounds slightly [78]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - It is in a volatile consolidation, and it is advisable to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. The futures prices of different contracts change, and the freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends [80].