1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the urea market will maintain a range - bound pattern. The willingness to short at the fundamental valuation support level is weak due to anti - involution policies and policy uncertainties. In the long - term, with clearer policies, it is recommended to short at high prices under the background of high fundamental pressure [2]. - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, and the daily output remains high. The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state [2][29][37]. - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The domestic demand is weak, with the agricultural demand decreasing and the industrial demand being sluggish [2][43]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (domestic and international), including the basis of different enterprises, 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 monthly spreads, and the spot prices of different regions and types of urea [5][9][15][20]. Domestic Supply Capacity - In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. In 2024, the total new capacity was 427 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 346 tons, with many new projects put into production or planned [24]. Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many urea production enterprises have maintenance plans, including information such as enterprise name, annual capacity, raw materials, model, parking and starting dates, and reasons [28]. Output - The production profit of urea is at the break - even line, but the daily output remains high. The charts show the historical trends of China's daily urea output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of coal - based and gas - based urea [29][30]. Cost - The raw material price is stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The report provides a cost calculation table for fixed - bed factories in the Shanxi region [32]. Profit - The cash - flow cost of urea currently corresponds to a profitable state, and the charts show the historical trends of the cash - flow profit of fixed - bed devices and the production profit of different cost - based urea [37][38]. Net Import (Export) - The export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent export volume may increase. The table shows the monthly and annual export data of urea from 2018 - 2025 [43]. Domestic Demand Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics, and the demand for urea in corn has increased due to high - standard farmland construction [49][52]. Industrial Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The charts show the historical trends of the production cost, factory inventory, production gross profit, and capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers [56][57][58]. - **Melamine**: The charts show the historical trends of the production gross profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [60][61]. - **Real Estate**: The demand for panels from the real estate industry has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. The charts show the export volume of wood products and the cumulative data of real estate completion and construction areas [62][63]. Inventory - On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%. By August 14, 2025 (week 33), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 464,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [67]. International Urea - The charts show the historical trends of international urea spot prices, including the FOB prices of large - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the Middle East, and China, and the CFR price of large - particle urea in Brazil [20][71][72][73][74].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-B" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's polyurethane and fine chemicals businesses are performing steadily, while the petrochemical business is under profit pressure [6] - The company is expected to benefit from technological innovation and capacity upgrades, enhancing cost control and product competitiveness [11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 90.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.12 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw total revenue of 47.83 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 6.0% and an increase of 11.1% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 13.84% and 7.39%, respectively, both showing declines compared to the previous year [6] Product Performance Summary - Revenue from the polyurethane series, petrochemical series, and fine chemicals and new materials series was 36.89 billion yuan, 34.93 billion yuan, and 15.63 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +4.0%, -11.7%, and +20.4% [6] - The sales volume for these product lines was 3.03 million tons, 2.85 million tons, and 1.19 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.6%, 3.6%, and 29.3% [6] Market Conditions and Outlook - The polyurethane prices are expected to rise due to low inventory levels and supply-side optimization, with recent price increases for pure MDI and TDI of 5.3% and 37.0%, respectively [7] - The company is accelerating its new materials layout and enhancing product competitiveness through innovation and capacity expansion [8][10] Financial Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 13.72 billion yuan, 16.91 billion yuan, and 19.08 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14, 12, and 10 [11] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 201.98 billion yuan, 221.05 billion yuan, and 245.74 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.9%, 9.4%, and 11.2% [13][15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. For example, PX has increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has low processing fees and attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts [2][9]. - Different futures have different trend intensities, with values ranging from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish). For instance, PX, PTA, and MEG have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Dynamics**: PX prices fell on the 13th, affected by falling naphtha prices and weakening downstream demand. PTA spot prices declined, and MEG had device operation changes such as a 40 - ton/year device reducing load and an 80 - ton/year device restarting [6][7]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX has a weakening trend, with the main contract shifting positions and monthly spread reverse arbitrage. PTA has a weakening trend, and in the medium - term, hold long MEG and short PTA positions. MEG has a weak - oscillating trend, and maintain the 9 - 1 positive spread within the -50 to 0 range and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [9][10]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price and trading volume of rubber changed slightly. In the spot market, the prices of some rubber varieties declined slightly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased [12][14]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend, and it is expected to oscillate [12]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the trading volume increased. In the spot market, the prices of some butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber increased slightly. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased [16][18]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend. In the short - term, it may be slightly stronger, and in the medium - term, it will operate within the fundamental valuation range [18]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of asphalt contracts decreased, and the trading volume and open interest changed. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly, and the refinery inventory rate decreased slightly [19]. - **Market News**: This week, the domestic asphalt shipment volume decreased, the capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt increased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt increased [35]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [28]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of LLDPE decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [36]. - **Market Situation**: Macro data is bearish, the cost of polyethylene decreases, the supply pressure increases, and the downstream demand is weak. The overall trend still faces pressure [36][37]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [39]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of PP decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [40]. - **Market Situation**: The cost of PP is weak, the demand has no obvious bright spots, the supply pressure increases, but short - term short - chasing needs to be cautious [41]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [42]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: The 09 - contract futures price and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong are provided [44]. - **Market Situation**: The cost support of caustic soda is strong, the peak - season demand is expected, and the export support is still strong [46]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [47]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of pulp increased, and the trading volume and open interest increased. In the spot market, the prices of some pulp varieties changed slightly [51]. - **Market News**: The spot price of hardwood pulp increased, and the price of softwood pulp was stable. The price of household paper was in a range - bound state [52][54]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [51]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of glass increased slightly, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions were stable [57]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic float - glass price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures had limited impact on the spot [57]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [57]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of methanol decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions changed slightly [60]. - **Market Situation**: The methanol spot price index increased slightly, and the short - term market is in a narrow - range oscillation pattern [62]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [63]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of urea decreased slightly, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions were stable [65]. - **Market News**: The inventory of urea enterprises increased this week, and the short - term market will oscillate within a range [66]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [67]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of styrene contracts decreased, and the profit of non - integrated and integrated production decreased [68]. - **Market Situation**: Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene are weak. Focus on compressing the profit of styrene [69]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [68]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of soda ash decreased, and the open interest decreased. In the spot market, the prices of some regions decreased slightly [73]. - **Market Situation**: The domestic soda - ash market continued to oscillate at a low level, with supply increasing and demand tepid [73]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [73]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of LPG and propylene contracts changed slightly, and the trading volume and open interest changed. The PDH and MTBE operating rates changed [77]. - **Market News**: The expected prices of Saudi CP for propane and butane changed. There are many PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [82][83][84]. - **Trend**: The trend intensities of LPG and propylene are both 0, indicating a neutral trend [81]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the price of PVC decreased, and the basis and 9 - 1 monthly spread are provided. In the spot market, the price was stable with a weakening tendency [85]. - **Market Situation**: The fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly. The high - production and high - inventory situation is difficult to change, and the market may short the chlor - alkali profit [85][86]. - **Trend**: The trend intensity is -1, indicating a weak - bearish trend [88]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil contracts decreased. In the spot market, the prices of fuel oil in various regions decreased [89]. - **Trend**: The trend intensities of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are both 0, indicating a neutral trend. Fuel oil continues to decline, and the short - term weakness will continue [89]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: In the futures market, the prices of container freight index (European line) contracts changed. The SCFIS and SCFI for European and US - West routes decreased [91]. - **Trend**: Hold 10 short positions as appropriate [29]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Trend**: In the short - term, it is an oscillating market. Long PF and short PR [32]. Offset - Printing Paper - **Trend**: It oscillates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [33]. Pure Benzene - **Trend**: It is expected to be slightly stronger and oscillate in the short - term [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **PX**: Weakening trend, trend strength -1 [5][7] - **PTA**: Weakening trend, hold mid - term long MEG short PTA position, trend strength -1 [5][8] - **MEG**: Sideways - weakening trend, hold mid - term long MEG short PTA position, trend strength 0 [5][9] - **Rubber**: Sideways - strengthening trend, trend strength 1 [10][11] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Fundamentals provide support, trading within valuation range, trend strength 0 [16][18] - **Asphalt**: Following crude oil, sideways - weakening trend, trend strength 0 [19][28] - **LLDPE**: Still under pressure, trend strength -1 [35][38] - **PP**: Short - term shorting with caution, still under pressure, trend strength 0 [39][41] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish view on peak - season contracts, trend strength 1 [43][47] - **Pulp**: Sideways movement, trend strength 0 [48][50] - **Glass**: Stable raw - sheet prices, trend strength 0 [53][55] - **Methanol**: Narrow - range sideways movement, trend strength 0 [57][61] - **Urea**: Range - bound trading, trend strength 0 [62][65] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market, trend strength 0 [66][68] - **LPG**: Short - term weak sideways movement, trend strength 0 [70][77] - **Propylene**: Supply - demand tightening, some price support, trend strength 1 [70][77] - **PVC**: Weak sideways movement, trend strength -1 [81][84] - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term weakness continues, mainly sideways movement, trend strength 0 [85] - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Narrow - range adjustment, downward trend in high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market, trend strength 0 [85] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Sideways consolidation, hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate, no specific trend strength provided [87] - **Staple Fiber**: Limited downside, short - term sideways market, long PF short PR, no specific trend strength provided [2] - **Bottle Chip**: Limited downside, short - term sideways market, long PF short PR, no specific trend strength provided [2] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Sideways movement at a low level, lack of upward momentum, no specific trend strength provided [2] - **Pure Benzene**: Continued inventory reduction, short - term strengthening, no specific trend strength provided [2] 2. Core Views - **Supply - demand and Price Trends**: Different products show various supply - demand relationships and price trends. For example, PX and PTA face increasing supply pressure and weakening trends, while caustic soda and propylene have positive factors supporting their prices [7][45][70] - **Market Sentiment and Policy Impact**: The "anti - involution" policy has a certain impact on market sentiment and commodity valuations. Although it is not currently aggressive in the short term, it provides long - term support for commodity valuations [18][60][65] - **Hedging Strategies**: For some products, such as MEG and PTA, mid - term hedging strategies are recommended, like long MEG short PTA [8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - **Supply**: Chinese and Asian PX operating rates are rising, and future supply is expected to increase [7] - **Trend**: Unilateral trend is weakening, with主力 contract roll - over and reverse calendar spread trading [7] PTA - **Supply - demand**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, but the reduction in supply has not led to an increase in basis and a repair of processing margins [8] - **Trend**: Unilateral trend is weakening, hold mid - term long MEG short PTA position, and conduct calendar spread trading [8] MEG - **Supply - demand**: Both supply and demand are increasing this week. Port inventory is expected to rise, and domestic production capacity utilization is increasing, but terminal demand is weak [9] - **Trend**: Unilateral trend is sideways - weakening, hold mid - term long MEG short PTA position, conduct calendar spread trading [9] Rubber - **Market Data**: Futures prices show an upward trend, and some spot prices are rising. The market is influenced by factors such as Vietnamese exports and weather [11][14][15] - **Trend**: Sideways - strengthening trend [10] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: Futures prices are slightly down, and some fundamental indicators remain stable. Production and inventory show certain changes [16][17] - **Trend**: Fundamentals provide support, trading within the valuation range [16][18] Asphalt - **Market Data**: Futures prices are down, and some fundamental indicators such as refinery operating rates and inventory rates show slight changes [19] - **Trend**: Following crude oil, sideways - weakening trend [19][28] LLDPE - **Supply - demand**: Macro data is bearish, cost support is weakening, supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is sluggish [35][36] - **Trend**: Still under pressure [35][38] PP - **Supply - demand**: Cost is weakening, demand has no obvious bright spots, and supply pressure is increasing [39][40] - **Trend**: Short - term shorting with caution, still under pressure [39][41] Caustic Soda - **Supply - demand**: Previous price drops were due to high operating rates and low demand. Future demand during the peak season is expected to increase, and cost support is strong [45] - **Trend**: Bullish view on peak - season contracts [45][47] Pulp - **Supply - demand**: International pulp mills have plans to reduce production, and domestic small and medium - sized pulp enterprises may cut production due to losses. Downstream demand is in the peak season, but the current market is under pressure [51][52] - **Trend**: Sideways movement [48][50] Glass - **Market Data**: Futures prices are down, and raw - sheet prices are stable. Short - term sales are under pressure, but may improve later [54] - **Trend**: Stable raw - sheet prices [53][55] Methanol - **Supply - demand**: Port inventory is increasing significantly, and the market is in a short - term narrow - range sideways pattern [60] - **Trend**: Narrow - range sideways movement [57][61] Urea - **Supply - demand**: Enterprise inventory has decreased slightly, and the market is in a short - term range - bound pattern [64][65] - **Trend**: Range - bound trading [62][65] Soda Ash - **Supply - demand**: The domestic market is weakly stable, supply is at a high level, and downstream demand is general [68] - **Trend**: Little change in the spot market [66][68] LPG - **Market Data**: Futures prices are down. Some fundamental indicators such as PDH operating rates show changes [70] - **Trend**: Short - term weak sideways movement [70][77] Propylene - **Supply - demand**: Supply - demand is tightening, providing some support for prices [70] - **Trend**: Prices have certain support [70][77] PVC - **Supply - demand**: High production and inventory are difficult to change in the short term, and the market may continue to short chlorine - alkali profits [81][82] - **Trend**: Weak sideways movement [81][84] Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: Futures prices are down, and spot prices in different regions show various changes [85] - **Trend**: Fuel oil has a short - term weakening trend with sideways movement, and low - sulfur fuel oil is in a narrow - range adjustment [85] Container Shipping Index (European Route) - **Market Data**: Futures prices show different trends, and freight rate indices are down [87] - **Trend**: Sideways consolidation, hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [87]

2025 年 08 月 11 日 甲醇：窄幅震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan022594@gtjas.com 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 2,383 | 2,388 | - 5 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 2,388 | 2,395 | - 7 | | | 甲醇主力 | 成交量 | （手） | 299,310 | 291,501 | 7809 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 407,074 | 436,677 | -29603 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 8,688 | 8,688 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 714,862 | 698,085 | 16777 | | | 基 差 | 基 差 | | -3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the synthetic rubber market is slightly bullish with oscillations, while in the medium - term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The low - valuation of cis - butadiene rubber makes the market less willing to short. This is due to the long - term policy orientation of "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization supporting the overall commodity valuation, and the neutral fundamentals of the rubber and butadiene sectors. There are short - term speculative rallies at the lower end of the fundamental valuation, but limited upside in the medium - term due to lack of fundamental upward drivers [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the cis - butadiene rubber main contract (09 contract) was 11,515 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 41,370 lots, a decrease of 18,741 lots; the open interest was 25,625 lots, a decrease of 831 lots; and the trading volume was 237.957 million yuan, a decrease of 107.947 million yuan [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong cis - butadiene rubber minus the futures main contract was 35 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan compared to the previous day; the monthly spread of BR08 - BR09 was 105 yuan, an increase of 175 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: The price of North China private cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the prices of East China and South China private cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton; the market price of Shandong delivery - grade cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,550 yuan/ton. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged at 9,300 yuan/ton and 9,375 yuan/ton respectively [1] - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene rubber operating rate was 65.6381%, unchanged; the theoretical full cost was 12,182 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the profit was - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - **Production**: This week, the output of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.93%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.17%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.29 percentage points. Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week. It is expected that Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda's cis - butadiene rubber plants will restart next week, and the output of cis - butadiene rubber will increase [2] - **Inventory**: As of August 6, 2025 (week 32), the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. Although some production plants were shut down for short - term maintenance this week, the inventory of sample production enterprises increased due to the wait - and - see attitude of downstream customers and slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [2][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are supportive, and it operates within the valuation range. The short - term market is slightly bullish, while the medium - term remains within the fundamental valuation range [2][4]. - The price of butadiene is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - The output of high - cis butadiene rubber this week was 27,300 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons compared to last week, a 5.93% month - on - month decrease, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.17%, a 4.29 - percentage - point month - on - month decline. Some plants such as Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical carried out short - term maintenance. Next week, the plants of Shandong Yihua and Qixiang Tengda are expected to restart, and the output is expected to increase [4]. 3.1.2 Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires slightly decreased, while that of all - steel tires slightly increased. Next week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will vary. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires may continue to decline slightly, while that of all - steel tires is expected to increase. In terms of substitution demand, the price difference between NR - BR main contracts is maintained at 700 - 900 yuan/ton, and the substitution demand remains high. Therefore, the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - As of August 6, 2025 (Week 32), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,400 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.38% month - on - month increase. Although some production plants carried out short - term maintenance this week, the downstream was waiting for price drops, and the price of arbitrage resources was relatively low, resulting in slow spot transactions. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while that of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [4]. 3.1.4 Valuation and Viewpoint - In the short term, it is slightly bullish, and in the medium term, it operates within the fundamental valuation range. The current static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,200 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to rise slightly. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,600 - 11,700 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 11,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: Bullish with upper pressure at 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and lower support at 11,100 - 11,200 yuan/ton. - Inter - period: No relevant strategy. - Inter - variety: The price difference between NR - BR is expected to narrow in the short term [4]. 3.2 Butadiene Weekly Viewpoint 3.2.1 Supply - Some enterprises carried out plant maintenance this week, and the domestic butadiene supply decreased. The output was 102,500 tons, a decrease of 900 tons compared to the previous period, a 0.87% decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.76%, a 0.21% month - on - month decline [5]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remained high, and the demand for butadiene maintained a high year - on - year level. With the resumption of butadiene rubber plants, the rigid demand for butadiene is expected to increase. In the ABS sector, due to high inventory pressure, the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant. In the SBS sector, the operating rate increased slightly, and the demand for butadiene remained stable [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory - From July 31 to August 6, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased by 8.71% compared to last week. The inventory of sample enterprises decreased slightly by 1.50%, while the inventory of sample ports increased by 41.35% due to the arrival of imported vessels. As of August 6, the inventory at East China ports was about 14,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons compared to the previous period [5]. 3.2.4 Viewpoint - The price is expected to be volatile in the short term with support at the bottom. The overall arrival volume of butadiene is expected to be low, and the port price may remain resilient. In the long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and it is expected to enter a weak pattern after the macro - sentiment eases [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals - Butadiene is currently in the stage of supply - demand pricing, with a low correlation with the raw material end [8]. - To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene production capacity is continuously expanding, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries [10]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals 3.4.1 Supply of Butadiene Rubber - Output: The output and operating rate data of butadiene rubber are presented, and the operating status and future plans of various enterprises' plants are detailed [34][35]. - Cost and profit: The daily theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin data of butadiene rubber are provided [37][38][39]. - Import and export: The monthly import and export volume data of butadiene rubber are presented [41][42]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory data of butadiene rubber enterprises, traders, and futures are provided [46][48]. 3.4.2 Demand of Butadiene Rubber - Tire: The inventory and operating rate data of semi - steel and all - steel tires in Shandong Province are presented [50][51].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：窄幅震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：窄幅震荡 | 供应 | • | 周内中国甲醇产量减少，检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量。数据方面，本周(20250801-0807)中国甲醇产量为1845225吨，较上周减少 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 67900吨，装置产能利用率为81.61%，环比跌3.55%。产量减少主要由于本周期内检修装置增加有关，整体上看，检修损失量远多于恢复增加量。目前统 | | | | 计下期甲醇计划检修装置减少，恢复装置或将增加，因此市场整体供应量或增加。（隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • • | 烯烃：本周浙江兴兴延续停车，神华宁夏上周短停后恢复运行，青海盐湖负荷降低，新疆恒有重启后低负荷运行，各企 ...

凤凰网财经讯 8月7日，三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.10%，深成指高开0.10%，创业板指高开0.02%， 中船系、PEEK材料等板块指数涨幅居前。 | | | | | 私法郎曲出版头 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 *● | 最新 | 涨幅% | | 涨跌 | : 涨课% | 总手 | 现手 | 金额 | | 上证指数 | 3637.78 | 0.10 | 3.79 | 919/876 | -0.02 | 4647 | 4647 | 64.37 Z | | 深证成指 | 11189.49 | 0.10 | 11.71 | 1095/1165 | -0.03 | 630万 | 630万 | 92.68 Z | | 北证50 | 1463.13 | 0.25 | 3.62 | 157/73 | -0.01 | 8.46万 | 8.46万 | 2.19 亿 | | 创业板指 | 2359.42 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 527/645 | -0.18 | 2107 | 210万 42.79亿 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term outlook for methanol is weak with oscillations, and it will enter an oscillatory pattern in the medium term. In the short term, a large number of speculative funds have left the market, causing the commodity index to decline from its high, and methanol futures have followed suit. Also, with the strengthening of the basis, the supply of spot goods in the spot market is expected to increase, putting pressure on the supply side. In the medium term, methanol is expected to oscillate. The "anti - involution" policy provides some support for the overall valuation of commodities, and the current fundamentals of methanol are neutral, with the port unloading situation being the key point to watch [4]. - For single - sided trading, it is weak in the short term and oscillatory in the medium term, with an upper pressure range of 2420 - 2430 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 2320 - 2330 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread - Charts show the trends of basis, month - spreads (9 - 1, 5 - 9), and the number of warehouse receipts of methanol from 2020 - 2025 [7][8][9][10]. - Domestic and international spot price trends of methanol from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including prices in regions like Inner Mongolia, Henan, and international prices in CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia, and FOB Rotterdam [12][13][14][15][16][17][18]. - Port - inland price spread trends from 2020 - 2025 are shown, such as the spread between Taicang and Hebei, Sichuan - Chongqing, Henan, and Lunan [19][20][21][22]. 3.2 Supply - From 2024 - 2025, China's new methanol production capacity has expanded significantly. In 2024, the total expansion was 400 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 840 million tons. Overseas, the total new capacity in 2024 was 355 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 330 million tons [24]. - A list of domestic methanol plant maintenance from 2019 - 2025 is provided, including information on affected regions, manufacturers, production capacity, raw materials, start and end times [26]. - Charts display the production volume, capacity utilization rate of methanol in China and different regions, and production volume by different production processes (coke oven gas, coal single - alcohol, natural gas, coal co - alcohol) from 2018 - 2025 [27][29][30][32][33]. - Data on methanol imports in China from 2020 - 2025 are presented, including import volume, import cost, arrival volume, and import profit [36][37][38][39]. - Charts show the production cost and profit of methanol by different production processes (coal - based in Inner Mongolia, coke oven gas - based in Hebei, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43][44][45][46][47]. 3.3 Demand - Charts show the capacity utilization rates of methanol downstream industries (methanol - to - olefins, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, etc.) in China from 2020 - 2025 [49][50][51][53][54]. - Data on the production profit of methanol downstream industries (MTO in East China and Shandong, formaldehyde in Shandong, etc.) from 2020 - 2025 are presented [57][58][60][61][62][63]. - Charts show the procurement volume of methanol by downstream industries (MTO and traditional downstream) in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 [65][66][67][68][70][71][72][73]. - Data on the raw material inventory of traditional downstream industries in different regions of China from 2020 - 2025 are presented [75][76][77][78]. 3.4 Inventory - Charts show the factory inventory of methanol in China and different regions (East China, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia) from 2018 - 2025 [80][81][82][83]. - Charts show the port inventory of methanol in China and different regions (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangdong) from 2018 - 2025 [86][87][88].