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美股多头神经紧绷!全球长债抛售潮加剧,30年期美债收益率逼近5%
智通财经网· 2025-09-03 12:04
Group 1 - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield is approaching 5% for the first time since July, reflecting concerns over budget deficits and increased bond issuance [1][5] - The spread between long-term and two-year Treasury yields has widened to 133 basis points, the largest gap since 2021, as the market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve [4] - Global long-term bond yields are rising, with the U.K. 30-year yield reaching its highest level since 1998 at 5.752%, indicating ongoing concerns about fiscal conditions in major economies [5] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. job vacancy data is expected to provide insights into the potential extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with economists predicting a drop to 7.382 million vacancies in July [1] - Investor sentiment is cautious ahead of the U.S. employment data release, which could significantly alter interest rate expectations [7] - The recent rise in long-term Treasury yields is causing volatility in the U.S. stock market, as higher rates lead to a reassessment of growth stock valuations [8][9] Group 3 - The U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer is expected to announce new tax measures in the upcoming budget on November 26, which may further impact market sentiment [6] - In France, the Prime Minister is facing a confidence vote regarding a debt reduction plan, which is causing investor unease [7] - The overall market has shown signs of stabilization after significant sell-offs, with yields on eurozone bonds decreasing [7]
香港第一金:关注黄金能否守住3500
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 09:36
Group 1 - Concerns over the UK's fiscal situation and record bond issuance in Europe have led to a sell-off in the UK bond market, which has spread to US, Japanese, and European bonds, causing a significant rise in yields [1] - The increase in bond yields is a potential pressure on gold prices, as rising interest rates typically negatively impact gold [1] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August has increased compared to the previous value, but the rise is below expectations and marks the sixth consecutive month of contraction [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming US JOLTs job openings report is a key employment indicator that the market is watching, but it is expected to have only a short-term impact and not change the overall trend [4] - Gold prices experienced a temporary decline due to the bond market sell-off but managed to stabilize above the Asian session high of 3508, reaching a daily target of 3545-50, with no strong resistance above [5] - The short-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with a focus on maintaining positions above key support levels, particularly 3526, which if broken could lead to a deeper correction towards 3500 [7]
德银CEO:全球债券抛售并非只是“短暂波动” 收益率将持稳高位
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-09-03 09:13
Group 1 - Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing expects bond yields to remain high in the coming months due to global government efforts to implement reforms and maintain fiscal discipline [1] - The 30-year bond yield in the UK surged to its highest level since 1998, while US bond yields approached the significant 5% mark [1] - Germany and the Netherlands saw their 30-year yields rise to 3.4% and 3.57% respectively, the highest since 2011, while France's 30-year yield reached 4.49%, the highest since 2009 [1] Group 2 - The turmoil in the global bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over inflation, debt issuance, and fiscal discipline, which have weakened confidence in government bonds [2] - Increased government spending in Germany and tax cuts for the wealthy in the US have heightened worries about the scale of government borrowing [2] - Political instability in France, the UK, and Japan has led investors to question the ability of these governments to address debt issues [2]
全球债市“冰火两重天” :一边热烈认购,一边疯狂抛售
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-09-03 06:36
Group 1 - The global bond market is experiencing significant fragility and volatility, with many governments forced to finance heavily in a high-debt and high-interest environment, leading to a paradox of strong short-term demand for high-yield products while long-term risks loom [1] - On Tuesday, European bond markets saw a record single-day issuance, with 28 issuers planning to raise at least €49.6 billion (approximately $57.7 billion), potentially surpassing the previous record of €47.6 billion set earlier this year [2] - The UK successfully raised £14 billion through a record 10-year government bond issuance, attracting over £140 billion in orders, with international buyers accounting for 40% of the allocation [2] Group 2 - Despite rising borrowing costs, banks and corporations are actively entering the market, driven by a surge in investment funds flowing into bond funds during the summer [3] - Saudi Arabia attracted approximately $15 billion in orders for its planned issuance of five-year and ten-year Islamic bonds to cover fiscal deficits and support its "Vision 2030" diversification plan [3] - The global bond market is under pressure from ongoing inflation concerns, fiscal discipline issues, and heavy government bond issuance, leading to rising yields and declining bond prices [4] Group 3 - Long-term bond yields have surged to high levels, with Japan's 20-year government bond yield reaching its highest level since 1999, and the UK’s 30-year bond yield climbing to its highest since 1998 [4] - The recent sell-off reflects traders' concerns over high government spending and its potential inflationary impact, with significant corporate bond issuance and ongoing doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve adding to market pressure [4] - The Bloomberg Global Bond Index fell by 0.4% on Tuesday, marking the largest single-day decline since June 6, indicating ongoing caution in holding long-term debt [5]
亚洲股市下挫,美日长债收益率飙升,日元承压,现货黄金持稳
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-03 06:28
Group 1 - A global bond sell-off is intensifying due to a surge in corporate debt issuance and concerns over fiscal conditions in developed countries, affecting U.S. Treasuries, European bonds, and spreading to Japan [1][2] - The record corporate bond issuance, with at least $90 billion in investment-grade debt issued globally, has made this week one of the busiest in the credit market this year, with European issuance reaching a record €49.6 billion in a single day [2][3] - The rise in bond yields is diminishing the attractiveness of stocks, leading to pressure on Asian equity markets, while the Japanese yen weakens amid domestic political uncertainty [1][2] Group 2 - In Japan, local political uncertainties are exacerbating bond market pressures, with concerns over the potential resignation of a key ally of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, increasing political volatility [3] - The upcoming 30-year government bond auction is causing cautious sentiment among investors, contributing to selling pressure on long-term bonds, with the 30-year yield reaching 3.28%, the highest on record [3] - The U.S. yield curve is under pressure to steepen, with analysts noting that the long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields, influenced by various factors including upcoming employment data [7][8]
全球国债抛售潮!30年美债收益率重回5%,发生了什么?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-03 00:21
Group 1 - A global government bond sell-off is occurring, pushing the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield towards the psychological 5% level [1][7] - On Tuesday, the sell-off affected bond markets across the Atlantic, with yields rising in the U.S., U.K., Italy, and France [1][7] - The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield increased by 5.3 basis points to 4.97%, while the 10-year yield rose by 4.9 basis points to 4.276% [1] Group 2 - The market turmoil is attributed to a surge in corporate bond supply, concerns over government fiscal conditions, and seasonal liquidity tightening [4][9] - September is traditionally unfavorable for long bond holders, with a significant influx of corporate bond issuances expected [4][6] - Wall Street predicts that U.S. investment-grade corporate bond issuance could reach $150 billion to $180 billion this month, potentially exceeding last year's $172.5 billion [6] Group 3 - The sell-off is not limited to the U.S.; other developed economies like the U.K., Italy, and France are also experiencing rising yields [7][8] - The 30-year U.K. government bond yield reached its highest level since 1998, while French yields also increased [8] Group 4 - Historical data indicates that September has been the worst month for government bonds with maturities over 10 years, showing a median decline of 2% [10] - Technical liquidity factors and historical trends contribute to the negative sentiment in the bond market during September [10] Group 5 - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming U.S. employment report, which will influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] - Traders anticipate a 92% chance of a rate cut in September, with the employment report being a critical variable for market direction [11]
欧债收益率普遍下行,英国10年期国债收益率下行3.5个基点
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 23:48
Core Viewpoint - European bond yields generally declined on August 28, with notable decreases in various countries' 10-year government bonds [1] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - The UK 10-year government bond yield decreased by 3.5 basis points to 4.698% [1] - The French 10-year government bond yield fell by 4.1 basis points to 3.475% [1] - The German 10-year government bond yield dropped by 0.7 basis points to 2.691% [1] - The Italian 10-year government bond yield declined by 3.6 basis points to 3.535% [1] - The Spanish 10-year government bond yield decreased by 2.5 basis points to 3.292% [1]
经济学家:特朗普解雇美联储理事库克可能打乱美国政府预算
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-26 02:31
格隆汇8月26日|Economics Unchained首席经济学家斯蒂芬•哈尔马利克表示,自上世纪90年代初以来, 央行的独立性一直是全球金融体系的基石之一,因此削弱美联储独立性的尝试令人担忧。如果美联储理 事库克被解职后,新理事的任命将直接受总统的指示,这将不会受到金融市场的欢迎,反而可能导致债 券收益率上升,而债券收益率对美国政府债务的管理至关重要。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱:news_center@staff.hexun.com ...
德国债券下跌,10年期国债收益率上涨5个基点至2.77%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-08-25 11:06
Group 1 - German bonds experienced a decline on August 25, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 5 basis points to 2.77% [1]
信用分析周报:利差调整后,或存补涨机会-20250825
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-25 01:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report continues to expect the 10Y Treasury yield to range between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of 2025. Currently, the 10Y Treasury yield is close to 1.8%, presenting high cost - effectiveness. It anticipates the 10Y Treasury yield to return to around 1.65% in the next six months and the 5Y national and joint - stock second - tier capital bonds to fall below 1.9%. The growth of wealth management scale is favorable for medium - and short - term credit bonds [3][40] - In 2025, the bond market lacks a trend - based market. In the bond market oscillation during the low - interest - rate era, investment is challenging, and it is necessary to seize band opportunities on the left side. When the stock market adjusts, bond yields may decline rapidly, and right - side investment also has high difficulty [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 1435 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 1298 billion yuan. The total issuance was 3967 billion yuan, up 764 billion yuan week - on - week, and the total repayment was 2531 billion yuan, down 535 billion yuan week - on - week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 132 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 167 billion yuan [8] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 402 billion yuan, up 72 billion yuan week - on - week; the net financing of industrial bonds was - 256 billion yuan, down 428 billion yuan week - on - week; the net financing of financial bonds was 1289 billion yuan, up 1654 billion yuan week - on - week [8] - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance of urban investment bonds increased by 15 and the redemption decreased by 6 this week; the issuance of industrial bonds decreased by 4 and the redemption increased by 7; the issuance of financial bonds increased by 17 and the redemption decreased by 9 [9] 1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA industrial bonds and AA+ financial bonds decreased this week, while the issuance costs of other bonds with different ratings and types increased. Specifically, the issuance rate of AA - rated industrial bonds decreased by 46BP compared with last week, mainly due to the low - rate issuance of "25 Ningbo Construction SCP001" and "25 Beijing Electronic City SCP002". The issuance costs of AA and AA+ urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 10BP compared with last week, and the issuance rates of other bonds with different ratings and types increased by no more than 10BP [15] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Trading Volume - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 811 billion yuan week - on - week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 2439 billion yuan, up 269 billion yuan week - on - week; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 2926 billion yuan, down 489 billion yuan week - on - week; the trading volume of financial bonds was 4876 billion yuan, up 1031 billion yuan week - on - week. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 257 billion yuan, up 74 billion yuan week - on - week [16] 2.2 Turnover Rate - The turnover rate of credit bonds fluctuated this week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.56%, up 0.17 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 1.61%, down 0.27 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.25%, up 0.66 pct week - on - week; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.71%, up 0.21 pct week - on - week [17] 2.3 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different maturities increased to varying degrees this week, and the adjustment range of some credit bond yields exceeded 10BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA - and AAA+ credit bonds with maturities within 1Y increased by 4BP each; those with maturities of 3 - 5Y increased by 9BP, 7BP and 7BP respectively; those with maturities over 10Y increased by 5BP, 7BP and 9BP respectively [22] - Taking AA+ - rated 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds increased to varying degrees. The yields of private - placement industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds increased by 6BP each; the yield of AA+ - rated 5Y urban investment bonds increased by 9BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and second - tier capital bonds increased by 6BP and 8BP respectively; the yield of AA+ - rated 5Y asset - backed securities increased by 6BP [23] 2.4 Credit Spreads - Generally, the credit spreads of bonds with different industries and ratings mostly adjusted by no more than 5BP this week, and the credit spreads of a few industries compressed. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA - rated media and AAA - rated household appliances widened by 5BP each compared with last week; the credit spreads of AA+ - rated leisure services and machinery decreased by 5BP and 6BP respectively [23] 2.4.1 Urban Investment Bonds - In terms of maturity, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all adjusted this week. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y and over - 10Y urban investment bonds widened by less than 1BP, 3BP, 6BP, 7BP and 3BP respectively compared with last week [28] - By region, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds in most regions widened to varying degrees this week. For example, the credit spreads of AA - rated urban investment bonds in Shanxi and Anhui widened by 6BP each; the credit spread of AA+ - rated urban investment bonds in Inner Mongolia widened by 12BP; the credit spreads of AAA - rated urban investment bonds in Liaoning and Shaanxi widened by 7BP and 6BP respectively [29] 2.4.2 Industrial Bonds - This week, the industrial bonds with different maturities and ratings mostly adjusted, and the credit spreads of 3Y private - placement industrial bonds performed well and compressed. Specifically, the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 4BP, 5BP and 2BP respectively compared with last week; the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+ and AA private - placement industrial bonds widened by 2BP, 4BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA - and AA+ perpetual industrial bonds widened by 3BP and 4BP respectively, and the credit spread of AA perpetual industrial bonds compressed by 2BP [32] 2.4.3 Bank Capital Bonds - This week, the credit spreads of 3Y bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds compressed significantly, while the spreads of other maturities mostly widened slightly. Specifically, the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+ and AA second - tier capital bonds widened by 4BP, 4BP and 5BP respectively; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA second - tier capital bonds compressed by 3BP, 2BP and 1BP respectively; the credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+ and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 3BP each; the credit spreads of 3Y AAA -, AA+ and AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 4BP each [34] 3. Bond Market News - This week, the implied ratings of 97 bond issues of 11 entities were downgraded. Among them, Zhuhai Gree Group Co., Ltd. involved 29 issues, CCCC Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. involved 17 issues, Shanghai Zhangjiang Hi - Tech Park Development Co., Ltd. involved 14 issues, Shenye Group Co., Ltd. involved 13 issues, and Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd. involved 12 issues [2][37] 4. Investment Recommendations - This week, a total of 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 220 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits matured in the open market. The central bank carried out 2.077 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1.2652 trillion yuan for the whole week. The DR001 closed at 1.45% on Friday, the same as the closing price on Monday. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond continued to adjust under pressure from 1.7465% at the close last Friday to 1.78% at the close on 8/22, and the yield of credit bonds also adjusted under pressure [5][39] - Generally, the credit spreads of bonds with different industries and ratings mostly adjusted by no more than 5BP this week, and the credit spreads of a few industries compressed. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds with different maturities all adjusted; the industrial bonds with different maturities and ratings mostly adjusted, and the credit spreads of 3Y private - placement industrial bonds compressed; the credit spreads of 3Y bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds compressed significantly, while the spreads of other maturities mostly widened slightly [5][39]