张尧浠：利好前景持稳、金价突破阻力预打开新牛市空间 上交易日周一(12月22日)：国际黄金强势反弹攀升收阳，如期突破新高以及趋势线阻力压制，这暗示后市的看涨空间进一步打开，将迎接看涨至5000美元 关口甚至更高的预期位置。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4340.19美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内低点4337.64美元，之后则持续反弹回升，欧美盘时段虽有回撤，但只有10美金左右， 幅度较小，趋势仍未上行，且一路延续到盘尾收盘，动力持稳，在触及日内高点4449.01美元，最终收于4443.55美元，日振幅111.37美元，收涨103.36美 元，涨幅2.38%。 其2025年的利好因素，关税担忧，降息预期，地缘局势等等仍然存在，并有进一步扩大的预期；所以，未来一年周期，全球经济仍面临结构性挑战，主要 央行货币政策整体偏宽松，地缘局势长期处于不稳定等等因素的支撑而仍可觊觎触及5000美元关口或更高位置。 总体而言，黄金的未来上涨将依赖于美联储的宽松步伐、地缘风险的演变以及全球经济复苏的速度。如果降息预期兑现，黄金不仅能维持当前涨幅，还可 能开启新一轮牛市。 如果美国经济明显恶化，失业率攀升，而通胀又未能大幅反弹，美联储 ...

值得注意的是，万家工业有色ETF（560860）跟踪的中证工业有色金属主题指数当前估值依旧处于历史 低位，截至12月22日，指数市盈率TTM为21.97倍，位于近十年37.25%估值分位数，具有较高安全边 际。场外投资者可通过联接基金（A类：018489；C类：018490）便捷参与。 每日经济新闻 万家工业有色ETF（560860）紧密跟踪中证工业有色金属主题指数，前三大行业铜（31.06%）、铝 （21.95%）和稀土（16.13%）合计占比近70%，在全市场已有ETF跟踪的有色金属指数中位居第一，市 场稀缺性与配置价值凸显。 在全球经济复苏预期与AI技术浪潮推动战略资源需求的双重驱动下，市场对工业金属的配置热情持续 高涨。Wind数据显示，万家工业有色ETF（560860）连续三个交易日获资金流入，近20日"吸金"11.47 亿元，近60日"吸金"达30.24亿元。截至12月22日，万家工业有色ETF（560860）最新份额为50.01亿 份，最新规模为75.41亿元，均创历史新高。 从最新公布的就业数据来看，2026年宏观环境有望延续"美财政货币双宽松"预期，预计美联储降息2~3 次，叠加财政刺激，全 ...

再看伦铜，周三一度涨了2%，最终收涨1.25%，报11737美元/吨，其他基本金属也跟着走高。这背后其 实是投资者在等一个关键数据——周四要发布的通胀数据，这数据直接关系到美联储接下来的降息节 奏。芝加哥联储行长都放话了，预计2026年经济增长强劲，要是真这样，利率还有进一步下降的空间。 对于铜这种工业金属来说，美联储的货币政策、全球经济复苏节奏，都是影响需求的核心因素，大家盯 着数据就对了。 最亮眼的还要数贵金属，金价涨到了4344美元/盎司，眼看就要碰纪录高位，白银更是涨了4.42%，铂金 都冲到2008年以来的最高水平了。这波上涨还是离不开避险情绪的推动，一方面是委内瑞拉的局势越来 越紧张，美国不仅封锁还威胁地面打击，另一方面大家也在盯着美国的通胀数据，想从中判断美联储的 政策方向。黄金作为传统避险资产，在这种不确定性高的环境下，自然成了不少投资者的"定心丸"。 聊到这，肯定有朋友问，帮主，中长线该怎么布局？别急，这就给大家上干货策略。首先，油价方面， 短期地缘风险会带来波动，但中长期还是要回归供需基本面，咱们可以关注后续制裁落地情况和全球需 求复苏的节奏，逢低布局相关优质标的，别追高；其次是铜等基本金 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectations are rising. China's imports and exports rebounded in November. Although there are still high - base disturbances, exports are expected to maintain strong resilience considering external positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US relations and global economic recovery [1]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased significantly. The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has also risen sharply, and attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. - In the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on the relatively certain non - ferrous and precious metals sectors. Also, pay attention to the "anti - involution" facts in the black and chemical sectors, and the impact of Sino - US talks and weather on agricultural products [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic policy expectations are heating up. Multiple meetings have been held in November, including the State Council Executive Meeting, the price disorderly competition cost determination work symposium, and the power and energy storage battery industry manufacturing enterprise symposium [1]. - In October, China's export (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, with the previous value increasing by 8.3%. The import and export data were affected by the reduction of working days and pre - holiday rush exports. In November, China's official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2 month - on - month, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months [1]. - In November, China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year, higher than expected. Exports to the EU increased by 14.8% year - on - year, exports to ASEAN increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and exports to the US declined further. Integrated circuits and automobiles were the main driving factors [1]. - In November, China's import (in US dollars) increased by 1.9% year - on - year, slightly rebounding from the previous month. Imports from the US and ASEAN decreased less, and imports from the EU decreased slightly year - on - year. Imports of mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products increased, as did the import volume of energy products except coal [1]. - On December 8, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with sectors such as computing hardware, commercial aerospace, storage chips, and securities leading the rise [1]. Fed and Global Market - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Many Fed officials have released dovish signals, and some key figures support a December rate cut [2]. - In November, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.7 to 48.2 [2]. - Trump hinted that economic advisor Hassett, who tends to a loose stance, might succeed as the Fed chairman, strengthening the market's expectation that the rate - cut pace could be faster than expected [2]. - The market's expectation of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has risen sharply, leading to higher Japanese bond yields and a stronger yen. Attention should be paid to its impact on global liquidity [2]. Commodity Market - In the black sector, it is still dragged down by the downstream demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" facts [2]. - In the non - ferrous sector, the long - term supply constraint has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by the global easing expectation recently [2]. - In the energy sector, continue to pay attention to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on oil prices. Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU has reached an agreement to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027 [2]. - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worth noting [2]. - In the agricultural product sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast after the Sino - US talks [2]. - For precious metals, after the short - term sharp adjustment risk is cleared, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [2]. Important News - China's export (in US dollars) increased by 5.9% year - on - year in November, with an estimate of 4% and a previous value of - 1.1%. Imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a previous value of 1%. The trade surplus was $111.68 billion [4]. - The CSRC will implement differentiated supervision on securities firms, appropriately relax restrictions on high - quality institutions, and explore differentiated supervision on small and medium - sized and foreign - funded securities firms [4]. - On December 8, the market opened higher and moved higher. The ChiNext Index rose more than 3% during the session. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.6% [4]. - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing multiple aspects such as expanding domestic demand and implementing positive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [4].

来自农业食品、物流运输、金融服务、机械电子、跨境贸易、生物医药等领域逾100人参加了活动。 （文章来源：新华社） 奥克兰市市长芭芭拉·李表示，奥克兰是加州最具活力的港口城市之一。作为美国西海岸的重要交通枢 纽和贸易门户，奥克兰港长期与中国保持着密切的经贸往来。奥克兰市愿为促进美中双方企业在绿色科 技、港口物流、清洁能源、数字经济、文旅教育等领域的合作提供更多便利。 与会美国工商界人士普遍表示，在全球经济复苏乏力和供应链重塑的背景下，美中企业合作符合双方利 益，希望继续通过链博会等交流合作平台，加强与中国企业、行业协会和地方政府的直接沟通，推动更 多合作项目在绿色科技、基础设施、创新创业和贸易投资方面落地，共同推动技术创新与互利共赢。 新华社旧金山12月5日电（记者吴晓凌）中国贸促会与美国加利福尼亚州奥克兰市政府5日在奥克兰合作 主办"机遇之港：中美商业交流早餐会"。 中国贸促会会长任鸿斌致辞时表示，中国坚定不移推动高质量发展，扩大高水平对外开放，这将为包括 美国在内的各国工商界对华合作提供广阔发展空间。中国贸促会愿与美方合作伙伴一道，采取更多积极 行动，增进两国民众相互了解，拓展经贸务实合作，为促进两国关系发 ...

哈喽大家好，今天小无带大家聊聊中美经贸这出跨世纪 "大戏"！ 一边是地缘博弈的纷纷扰扰，一边是半世纪没断过的民间默契，这看似拉扯的背后，藏着全球经济稳局 的关键密码。 现在全球经济增速放缓，中美经贸稳定早不是两国的"家务事"，而是关乎全球复苏的"刚需公共产品"。 谁忘了20世纪30年代的教训？ 当时的贸易战直接加剧了大萧条，历史明明白白告诉我们，世界两大经济体对着干，没有国家能独善其 身。如今全球产业链拧得跟麻花似的，中美经贸的一点风吹草动，都会通过订单、物流、原材料价格传 到各个角落，谁也躲不开。 经贸合作是"刚需公共产品" 往长远看，这俩国家的合作价值远不止赚点短期利益。全球都在搞绿色转型，中国的新能源产能配上美 国的技术研发，能给碳中和提供更高效的解决方案；数字经济赛道上，中国的应用场景和美国的底层技 术更是互相成就。 这就需要两国政府别搞短视操作，赶紧给工商界合作扫清障碍，取消畸高关税、放宽技术出口限制，这 些看着像"让利"的举动，其实是对全球经济复苏的责任担当。釜山峰会释放的积极信号，正是给这波合 作"添柴加火"。 半世纪的"务实双向奔赴" 现在的代表团看着是"精准组队"，其实都是市场需求的自然流露 ...

周周芝道 - 为什么 2026 年我们看好铜？20251201 摘要 市场普遍预期 12 月降息，提振市场情绪，推动包括铜在内的大宗商品 价格上涨，反映出市场对未来宽松路径的确定性增加。 若 2026 年 AI 资本开支持续，铜将成为最值得关注的资产之一，因 AI 产业发展需要大量铜资源，且持续投入将推高铜需求和价格，类似 2025 年黄金价格因预期而上涨。 地产行业对大宗商品定价影响减弱，股债市场对地产数据边际变化脱敏， 传统宏观经济框架不再适用，需考虑更多全球性因素。 美元走势与大宗商品价格之间不存在必然联系，不能简单地将美元指数 与铜价挂钩，需根据具体情况进行细致分析。 中国地产行业风险可控，政府具备较强掌控能力，大概率不会在 2026 年引发系统性风险，若 AI 泡沫不破裂，冲击将进一步降低。 高铜库存可能预示未来大行情，反映市场对供需格局变化的预期，而非 直接压制价格，应关注高库存背后的市场预期和行业判断。 2026 年传统需求预计将比 2025 年更为强劲，新兴国家资本开支增加， 发达国家需求回升，叠加铜供应长期紧张，铜价上涨趋势明显。 Q&A 近期市场对美联储降息预期的变化对铜价有何影响？ 最近 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京11月20日电德国央行在周四发布的月度报告中表示，德国经济在今年最后一个季度可能会 出现适度增长，主要由服务业推动扩张，同时其疲弱的工业部门正在趋于稳定。德国经济在上个季度保 持零增长，作为欧洲最大经济体，过去三年大部分时间都处于停滞状态。工业经历了深度衰退，家庭则 通过储蓄来重建因快速通胀而受损的财富。此外，德国央行指出，由于高成本，工业已失去了大量竞争 力，因此只能在有限程度上受益于全球经济复苏，美国关税也可能对需求造成压力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Baltic Dry Index has risen for five consecutive months, indicating a sustained recovery in global dry bulk shipping demand, with the index reaching its highest level since late September [1] Group 1: Baltic Dry Index Performance - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 44 points, or 2%, closing at 2260 points, marking the highest level since late September [1] - The Capesize Index surged by 120 points, or 3.4%, to 3636 points, also reaching a near two-month high [1] - Capesize vessels' daily earnings rose by $994 to $30,154, driven by increased demand for iron ore and coal transportation [1] Group 2: Commodity and Shipping Demand - Iron ore futures hit a two-week high, supported by strong demand from China and tightening supply, contributing to rising freight rates [1] - The Panamax Index increased by 13 points to 1895 points, reflecting a stable upward trend [1] - Panamax vessels' daily earnings grew by $118 to $17,057, with steady demand for coal and grain transportation [1] Group 3: Market Trends - The Supramax Index slightly increased by 3 points to 1430 points, achieving ten consecutive days of gains, indicating a strengthening market for smaller vessels [1] - The rise in freight rates across all vessel types suggests an increase in global commodity trade activity, potentially signaling an improvement in real economy demand [1] - The ongoing strength in shipping indices supports the narrative of global economic recovery, prompting investors to pay attention to related commodities and shipping sectors [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on global economic recovery, commodity performance, and the impact of U.S.-China trade relations on investment strategies. [1][2] Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Recovery**: The global economy is expected to shift towards recovery, with copper projected to perform best among commodities, while gold faces a risk of price correction to around $3,500. [1][2] 2. **U.S. Treasury Rates**: U.S. Treasury rates are anticipated to remain above 4% for the 10-year bonds, with the dollar index fluctuating between 100 and 105. [1][2] 3. **Technology Sector Capital Expenditure**: U.S. technology companies' capital expenditure is a critical macro variable that will determine whether the global economy enters a recovery or recession. Continued growth in capital expenditure is likely to support economic recovery. [1][5] 4. **U.S.-China Trade Dynamics**: The trade conflict between the U.S. and China is evolving into a competition in technology and security, necessitating investors to monitor policy changes closely. [4][7] 5. **Chinese Real Estate Market**: The decline in the Chinese real estate market is expected to stabilize, but its impact on the economy and asset pricing will diminish. The focus should be on managing non-performing assets in the financial sector. [1][8][9] 6. **Chinese Stock Market Outlook**: The potential for a bull market in Chinese stocks depends on liquidity easing, industry logic support, and stable fundamentals, with PPI growth being a key indicator. [1][14] 7. **Investment Opportunities**: In the event of global recovery, commodities like copper will present significant investment opportunities, while in a recession scenario, U.S. Treasuries and gold will be favored. [2][18] Other Important Insights 1. **Impact of Subsidy Reductions**: The tapering of subsidies for home appliances and automobiles is expected to negatively affect economic growth in 2026, although its impact on capital market pricing is considered limited. [16] 2. **CPI Data and Consumer Expectations**: Recent CPI data shows seasonal volatility in food prices, with core inflation remaining stable. The overall consumer trend is expected to improve, but strong performance remains challenging. [17] 3. **Future of U.S. Monetary Policy**: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy will be influenced more by economic demand than by the individual chairperson's style, with a focus on maintaining growth amid trade tensions. [20] 4. **Gold Market Trends**: The outlook for gold prices is expected to decline to around $3,500 in 2026, influenced by the dynamics of technology capital expenditure and U.S. monetary policy. [23] 5. **Long-term Technology Sector Development**: The competition in the technology sector between the U.S. and China is likely to drive increased capital expenditure, fostering overall economic recovery. [11] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, industry trends, and investment strategies for 2026.