美国与其他经济体达成贸易协议的内容与影响 ——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告/宏观专题报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 近期美国与部分经济体先后达成贸易协议，基于白宫网站发布信息（6 月 17 日英国、 7 月 22 日印度尼西亚、7 月 23 日日本、8 月 21 日欧盟）以及特朗普与白宫官员面向 媒体发布（7 月 3 日越南、7 月 22 日菲律宾、7 月 30 日韩国、泰国、柬埔寨、巴基 斯坦）相关情况梳理（注意：发布情况均为贸易协定概要，最终协议仍待敲定后公布， 细节可能存在变化），涉及内容较多，大致可分为"贸易"与"产业"两大部分。"贸 易"部分又可划分为"对美出口"与"自美进口"两个维度。 以上协议内容所产生的影响并不局限美国与其他经济体之间，而在短期引发全球贸易 格局变形，在中期引发全球产业格局重塑。 风险提示：海外政策风险；地缘政治风险；研究报告中使用的公开资料可能存 ...

Group 1 - Trump's recent tariff policies are aimed at reshaping global trade, with proposed collaboration tariffs of 15%-25% for allies and punitive tariffs exceeding 50% for strategic competitors [3][4] - The EU has agreed to purchase $750 billion of U.S. liquefied natural gas over five years to limit tariffs, impacting German automotive profits by an estimated 40% [3][4] - Japan and South Korea have made significant investments and market concessions to secure tariff benefits, with Japan's agriculture suffering and South Korea's semiconductor industry under pressure [4] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market has reacted negatively to these policies, with the Dow Jones dropping 4.2% and 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.8%, increasing annual household costs by $2,600 [4] - The imposition of a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper has led to a 20% drop in copper prices, affecting U.S. cable manufacturers due to raw material shortages [4] - China's strategic response includes rare earth export controls, with a 660% increase in exports of ordinary magnets to the U.S. while halting exports of high-purity alloys critical for military applications [6][9] Group 3 - China is enhancing military cooperation with Russia, as evidenced by joint naval exercises, which serve as a strategic deterrent to the U.S. [6][9] - A 90-day tariff buffer agreement was reached between China and the U.S., maintaining a 10% base tariff and a 20% "fentanyl tax," indicating a complex negotiation landscape [7] - Many multinational companies are reconsidering their supply chains, with 40% halting plans to relocate, and some, like Samsung, moving production from the U.S. to Vietnam [7][8] Group 4 - The actions of the U.S. have inadvertently strengthened BRICS nations' unity, with Brazil pushing for an independent settlement system and energy cooperation with Russia [8][9] - Southeast Asian countries are also pivoting towards China for economic benefits, with Vietnam signing a digital economy agreement and the Philippines emphasizing policy autonomy [8] - The shift towards a "de-Americanized" trade network is evident, with companies like Apple and Nvidia seeking to repair supply chains in China, indicating a growing interdependence [8][9]

Group 1 - The U.S. government announced a 25% additional tariff on imports from India, raising the overall tariff rate on Indian goods to 50%, the highest among major trading partners [1] - The tariff is a response to India's importation of Russian oil, as stated by President Trump, who indicated that the U.S. would take action against countries that directly or indirectly import Russian oil [1] - The new tariff will take effect in 21 days, while a previously announced 25% tariff will begin this Thursday [1] Group 2 - India is the third-largest oil consumer globally and has been importing discounted oil from Russia to alleviate domestic energy costs since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] - The U.S. actions are exacerbating trade and diplomatic tensions between the U.S. and India, with analysts suggesting that this could disrupt global trade patterns and affect cooperation with U.S. allies in the Indo-Pacific region [2] - The trend of aggressive sanctions by the U.S. against third countries is expected to continue as the Russia-Ukraine conflict persists [2]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis from the China National Textile and Apparel Council indicates that the overall export of household textiles from China remained stable in the first half of 2025, with a total export value of $16.03 billion, showing no year-on-year change. The second half of the year is expected to see a more stable global trade environment due to the temporary halt of global tariffs by the Trump administration, while the ongoing China-U.S. tariff conflict will drive Chinese textile companies to restructure their global trade and investment strategies [1]. Export Performance - Major household textile products include bedding, carpets, bath textiles, curtains, towels, and tablecloths. In the first half of the year, exports of most products remained stable, with bedding exports at $6.96 billion (up 0.2%), carpets at $2.15 billion (up 1.2%), bath textiles at $1.58 billion (down 2.2%), curtains at $1.54 billion (up 2.9%), and blankets at $1.58 billion (up 0.3%). However, towel exports fell to $889 million (down 8.8%) and tablecloth exports dropped to $370 million (down 8.9%) [2]. Market Distribution - The top five export markets for Chinese household textiles are the U.S., EU, ASEAN, Japan, and Australia. From January to June, exports to the U.S. totaled $4.79 billion (down 5.9%), accounting for 29.9% of total exports. Exports to the EU increased to $2.21 billion (up 9.9%), while exports to ASEAN decreased to $1.56 billion (down 19.4%). Exports to Japan and Australia also saw declines [3]. Regional Performance - The top five regions for household textile exports from China are Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, and Shanghai. In the first half of the year, Zhejiang's exports reached $5.54 billion (up 6.4%), while Jiangsu's exports fell to $3.33 billion (down 2.8%). Notably, Xinjiang and Guangxi saw significant increases in exports, with growth rates of 39.6% and 23.1%, respectively [4]. U.S. Market Share Trends - In the first five months, U.S. imports of household textiles totaled $6.76 billion (down 0.9%), with imports from China decreasing by 9.2%, resulting in a market share of 37.6% (down 3.5 percentage points). Conversely, imports from India and Pakistan increased, capturing 27.3% and 10.4% of the market, respectively. In the EU, imports from China grew by 22.8%, increasing its market share to 35.4% [5]. Future Outlook - The U.S. government's unilateral tariff measures have hindered exports to the U.S., with a significant decline observed in April and May, although the drop narrowed in June. The share of the U.S. market in China's household textile exports decreased from 33% in 2024 to 29.9% in the first half of 2025. The industry is expected to remain under pressure in the second half, necessitating proactive measures from companies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The global trade situation is becoming increasingly complex as countries like South Korea, India, and Malaysia draw red lines in trade negotiations with the United States, while the U.S. responds quickly and mentions reaching a trade agreement with China [1][7]. Group 1: South Korea's Trade Negotiations - South Korea has firmly rejected further opening its beef and rice markets as negotiation leverage, emphasizing food safety and agricultural protection [3]. - In 2022, South Korea imported beef worth $2.22 billion from the U.S., and U.S. rice accounts for 32% of its total rice import quota [3]. - The U.S. has maintained a strong stance on agricultural market access, putting pressure on South Korea, especially as Japan has made concessions [3][4]. Group 2: India's Trade Stance - India has also taken a strong position in trade talks with the U.S., with key red lines being agriculture and dairy products [6]. - Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has called for the removal of reciprocal tariffs and additional tariffs on steel, aluminum, and auto parts, while seeking similar low tariff treatment as other U.S. trade partners [6]. - India retains the right to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, particularly concerning genetically modified products and strict feed regulations for dairy animals [6]. Group 3: Malaysia's Position - Malaysia has rejected U.S. demands regarding tax exemptions for electric vehicles and restrictions on foreign ownership in the power and financial sectors [6]. - Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar has stated that these policies are crucial for the rights of the Malay and indigenous populations, showing a commitment to national policy independence [6]. Group 4: U.S.-China Trade Relations - President Trump has claimed that the U.S. is reaching a trade agreement with China, although the credibility of this statement is questioned [7]. - This assertion may serve multiple purposes, including pressuring countries yet to sign agreements with the U.S. and establishing a narrative that places the U.S. in a moral high ground during negotiations [7]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The U.S. faces setbacks in its trade negotiations with these five countries as they collectively establish red lines, diminishing U.S. negotiating power [9]. - Countries are adopting various strategies to counter U.S. trade pressures, with South Korea, India, and Malaysia maintaining firm stances on their agricultural policies and national interests [9]. - The future of global trade order will be shaped by the negotiations and collaborations among these nations, aiming for equitable solutions to foster a stable and open global trade environment [9].

Group 1 - The U.S. tariff increase disrupts global trade patterns, raising costs and uncertainty, negatively impacting Australian businesses, but also creating opportunities in certain sectors, particularly agriculture [1][4][6] - The Australia-China relationship is gradually recovering, with most tariffs lifted and high-level visits resumed, indicating a rebuilding of trust and resilience in business [2][7] - The Australia-China Free Trade Agreement, effective since 2015, has significantly boosted bilateral trade, with trade volume expected to grow from approximately $145 billion in 2015 to $325 billion by 2025, a nearly 125% increase [3] Group 2 - The removal of trade restrictions on Australian products like wine and barley has instilled confidence in related industries, with signs of recovery in sectors such as agriculture [4][5] - Australian companies are increasingly seeking investment opportunities in China, particularly in agriculture, clean energy, and food and beverage sectors, shifting from traditional export models to joint development and market building [5][8] - The report indicates that over 75% of foreign enterprises in China reported profitability, with 51% experiencing revenue growth, and 46% increasing investments, reflecting a positive outlook for Australian businesses in China [2][11] Group 3 - The Australian agricultural sector is optimistic about exporting to China, driven by the growing middle class and demand for high-quality products, despite challenges such as fluctuating commodity prices [6][8] - The potential for collaboration in clean energy, biopharmaceuticals, and medical devices is significant, aligning with both countries' strategic priorities and consumer health demands [8][9] - The "Future Australia Manufacturing" initiative aims to attract Chinese investment to develop renewable energy supply chains and create jobs in new economic sectors [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the U.S. Court of Appeals has allowed the Trump administration to continue implementing its global tariff measures, despite a lower court ruling that deemed such measures unauthorized under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1][2] - The U.S. International Trade Court had previously ruled against the Trump administration's tariffs, but the Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended this ruling, indicating that the government's position is "reasonable" [1][2] - The case has been classified as an "extremely important issue" by the appellate court, which has expedited the hearing process, with a debate scheduled for July 31 [2] Group 2 - Investors should be aware that the 90-day suspension period for most of the "reciprocal" tariffs announced by Trump will expire in about a month, potentially leading to significant increases in tariff rates unless a trade agreement is reached or the suspension is extended [2] - The global market has experienced significant volatility since the announcement of the "reciprocal" tariffs, with market values fluctuating by trillions of dollars amid delays, policy reversals, and potential trade agreements [2] - The recent court ruling suggests that Trump's tariff policy will remain effective in the short term, which may continue to impact global trade flows and market sentiment [2]

Core Viewpoint - The global trade landscape and the internationalization of currencies are critical factors influencing world economic development, especially amid the complexities of the current international trade environment [1]. Group 1: Trade Outlook - HSBC's recent trade outlook survey indicates that global companies are facing rising costs and declining revenues due to ongoing uncertainties in tariffs and trade policies, prompting them to adjust their trade strategies [2][3]. - China remains the primary market for global companies looking to increase trade relations, with 44% of surveyed companies planning to enhance trade with China, followed closely by Europe (43%) and the United States (39%) [3]. - In terms of manufacturing, 40% of global companies plan to increase production in China over the next two years, second only to Europe at 45% [3]. Group 2: Regional Insights - Asian companies show a higher inclination to increase trade with China (54%) and manufacturing in China (52%) compared to the global average [3]. - HSBC's CEO in China noted that global trade disruptions caused by tariffs have significantly impacted business activities, leading companies to explore new markets and improve supply chain management [3][4]. Group 3: Innovation and Growth - Despite facing trade headwinds, 89% of global companies remain optimistic about achieving international business growth in the next two years, including 90% of Chinese companies [5]. - Over 84% of Chinese companies view current pressures as catalysts for innovation, prompting them to seek new opportunities, such as expanding into overseas markets (85%) and increasing domestic sales (81%) [5]. Group 4: Cost and Revenue Impact - Approximately two-thirds of global companies report being affected by rising costs, with 73% expecting short-term cost increases and 72% anticipating long-term increases [6]. - To cope with cost pressures, 85% of surveyed companies have already raised or plan to raise their prices, with an average expected revenue decline of 18% over the next two years [6]. Group 5: Renminbi Internationalization - Standard Chartered's Renminbi Global Index (RGI) has shown a continuous upward trend, reaching a high of 5167, with an 8.3% increase since the beginning of the year [7]. - The stability of Renminbi in trade settlements, maintaining a 30.2% share in China's total goods trade, reflects its resilience in global trade despite tariff disruptions [7][8]. - Key positive factors for the internationalization of the Renminbi include the absence of significant depreciation and the lack of a substantial decline in global trade flows [8].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the China-U.S. trade relations and their implications for global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Trade Relations** - The trade relationship remains complex with mutual dependence despite friction. China is enhancing trade cooperation with ASEAN, EU, and other non-U.S. regions to maintain export resilience, employing a transshipment trade strategy effectively [1][3][5]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has increased U.S. import costs, with average tariffs around 16% and potential increases to 20%. In contrast, some Chinese exports face tariffs as high as 50%, negatively impacting U.S. economic conditions [4][5]. 3. **Short-term Export Performance** - China's exports are expected to grow by 7% in Q2 2025, but a decline is anticipated in the latter half of the year due to the expansion of global tariffs. The overall GDP forecast for China is approximately 4.75% for the year [9][10]. 4. **U.S. Economic Growth Projections** - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to around 1% from an initial estimate of nearly 2%. This decline is significantly influenced by tariff impacts [8]. 5. **Real Estate and Fiscal Policy in China** - China's real estate investment has underperformed expectations, with potential fiscal stimulus measures anticipated in the second half of the year, including special bonds to support the economy [10]. 6. **Currency Trends** - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate, potentially reaching around 7 by the end of the year. This is influenced by the current economic conditions and capital flows [12][13][23]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics** - The trade war has led to a significant shift in global trade patterns, with China increasing exports to regions like ASEAN and Africa to offset losses from the U.S. market [3][6]. 8. **Long-term Economic Relations** - In the long run, the economic relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to evolve amidst geopolitical divisions, with China focusing more on non-U.S. partners [7]. 9. **Market Sentiment and Investment Risks** - Current market sentiment is weak due to ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to significant declines in exports and economic growth in the latter half of the year [26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation and Monetary Policy** - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and rising inflation expectations are leading to tighter monetary policies, with little likelihood of a new Plaza Accord [11]. 2. **Emerging Market Currencies** - Emerging market currencies are facing uncertainty due to trade dynamics and economic challenges, limiting their potential for appreciation [15]. 3. **Commodity Market Outlook** - A bearish outlook is projected for commodities like oil and steel, with expectations of price declines due to oversupply and weak demand [22]. 4. **Investor Behavior** - Investors are advised to be cautious with U.S. Treasury bonds due to volatility risks and potential dollar depreciation impacting returns on dollar-denominated assets [13][18]. 5. **Future Liquidity Conditions** - The potential for rapid liquidity release in the market is anticipated, depending on the economic recovery trajectory, which could influence asset allocation strategies [25].

Group 1 - Trump's recent announcement offers a "get out of jail free card" for countries imposing tariffs on China, aiming to reshape global trade dynamics [1] - The only country supporting Trump is the UK, while others like the EU, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Australia show a negative attitude towards his approach [3] - Trump's strategy to pressure allies into imposing tariffs on China has seen limited success, particularly with the EU hesitating to agree due to its significant trade ties with China [5][8] Group 2 - Countries are reluctant to respond to Trump's call for tariffs on China due to the importance of the Chinese market for their economies, with significant exports at stake [8] - China's strong stance against any actions that harm its interests has been made clear, with potential retaliatory measures that could impact global supply chains [8][10] - Trump's credibility is questioned due to past actions, leading countries to avoid jeopardizing their relationships with China for uncertain short-term gains [8][12] Group 3 - The global trade situation remains unstable, with China showing resilience against U.S. pressure while remaining open to negotiations [10][19] - Trump's global trade strategy appears to be at an impasse, as allies are unwilling to cooperate, and domestic pressures are mounting [21] - Countries are cautious about engaging in conflict with China, recognizing the potential negative consequences of such actions [19][22]