Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The report indicates that due to the favorable rainy climate in the US Midwest, there are expectations of a good soybean harvest. The agreement to extend the tariff truce by 90 days has led to a narrow - range oscillation in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil shows a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in July, but is supported by the strong international energy market and is oscillating at a high level. In the domestic market, soybean oil inventory is rising, and the news of export orders boosts the market. Palm oil maintains a supply - demand weak pattern and follows import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and future import uncertainties support its price, which is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [7][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week of July 23, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 2743.16 million tons [2] - As of last weekend, the total inventory of three major edible oils in China was 2.6094 billion tons, a weekly increase of 165,000 tons. Soybean oil and palm oil inventories increased by 261,000 tons and 164,000 tons respectively [2] - In June, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume was 856,096 tons, a 3.0% month - on - month increase; rapeseed oil production was 364,592 tons, a 3.22% month - on - month increase; rapeseed meal production was 507,038 tons, a 3.47% month - on - month increase [2] - The IMF raised China's 2025 growth rate by 0.8 percentage points to 4.8% in its July 29 report, reflecting stronger - than - expected economic activities in the first half of 2025 and lower - than - expected actual tariffs between China and the US [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports to India in 2025 will exceed 5 million tons, higher than 4.8 million tons in 2024, after India lowered import tariffs [3][4] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - No specific content provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the favorable climate in the US Midwest supports the expectation of a good soybean harvest. The extension of the tariff truce leads to a narrow - range oscillation in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern in July but is supported by the strong international energy market and oscillates at a high level [7][8] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, and the news of export orders boosts the market. Palm oil maintains a supply - demand weak pattern and follows import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and future import uncertainties support its price, which is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The short - term optimistic sentiment about oil prices has rebounded, and oil prices are expected to run strongly. In the short term, it will run strongly in the range of 525 - 535, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade negotiations are proceeding smoothly, and both sides intend to extend the sanctions exemption period. Trump has significantly shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement and threatened to impose tariffs [3]. - **Basis**: On July 29, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $73.02 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $71.80 per barrel. The basis was 19.95 yuan/barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.5 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory for the week ending July 18 increased by 0.455 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 22, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, but the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Russia led to a sharp rise in international crude oil futures. Sino - US trade negotiations are in line with market expectations. Short - term oil prices will run strongly in the 525 - 535 range, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump shortened the deadline for Russia to reach a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict from 50 days to 10 days. If there is no progress, the US will impose tariffs and take other measures in 10 days [5]. - Sino - US officials held "constructive" talks in Stockholm, aiming to ease the trade war. Both sides agreed to strive to extend the current 90 - day tariff truce period. Whether to extend it will be decided by Trump [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increase in summer demand [6]. - **Negative Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, the US has tense trade relations with other economies, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, the market awaits the summer demand peak season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil increased, with increases of 2.36, 2.50, 9.20, and 1.72 respectively, and the ranges were 3.40%, 3.75%, 1.82%, and 2.41% respectively [7]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of crude oil, such as UK Brent, WTI, Oman, etc., also increased [9]. 5. Position Data - **API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending July 25 increased by 1.539 million barrels [3][10]. - **EIA Inventory**: The US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending July 18 decreased by 3.169 million barrels [3][13]. - **WTI and Brent Net Long Positions**: As of July 22, the net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil decreased [3][15][18].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - July 30, 2025 [1] - Author: Dushufang from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the "constructive talks" between China, the US, and Sweden, the tariff truce is temporarily maintained. The two markets opened lower and closed higher yesterday, with late - session rallies. Innovation drug medical, steel and other sectors led the gains, and market hotspots rotated. Banks and insurance continued to adjust. The index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend, but market volatility may increase, and intraday chasing of highs is not recommended [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **IH Contracts**: IH2508 had a contract price of 2,812.60 with a 0.33% increase, and a volume of 11,112. It had a 4.01 - point premium. The IH main contract showed a reduction in long positions [2][3]. - **IF Contracts**: IF2508 had a contract price of 4,152.80, a 0.57% increase, and a volume of 24,227. It had a 0.78 - point premium. The IF main contract showed an increase in long positions [2][3]. - **IC Contracts**: IC2508 had a contract price of 6,317.80, a 0.68% increase, and a volume of 23,067. It had a 38.33 - point discount. The IC main contract showed a reduction in long positions [2][3]. - **IM Contracts**: IM2508 had a contract price of 6,731.00, a 0.84% increase, and a volume of 38,521. It had a 42.88 - point discount [3]. 2. Spot Market - **Important Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index had different daily percentage changes, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 1.86% [11]. - **Style Indexes**: Different style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, Low - P/E Index, etc., also had varying daily percentage changes, with the 300 Growth index having a 2.59% increase [14][17]. 3. Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index showed fluctuations from November 2024 to July 2025 [20]. - **P/E Ratio**: The P/E ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were presented over a long - term period [22]. - **P/B Ratio**: The P/B ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were shown over a long - term period [24]. 4. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Inflows**: The net inflow of A - share funds and the CSI 300 index were presented over a long - term period [26]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index were presented over a long - term period [28]. - **Northbound Capital**: The net inflow of northbound capital was presented over a long - term period [30]. - **Fund Cost**: The SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates were presented from November 2024 to July 2025 [36]. 5. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market capitalization) were presented over a long - term period [39][42][43]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Data on public - offering hybrid fund positions were presented, but no specific details were provided in the text [44]. 6. Other Data - **Dividend Yield and Bond Yield**: The dividend yields of stock index futures and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield were presented over a long - term period [48]. - **Exchange Rate**: The USD - CNY exchange rate was presented from May 2021 to July 2025 [49].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12% to 3597.94 points, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.96%[1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 0.68% to 25562.13 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.24%[1] Economic Developments - The U.S.-China trade talks focused on extending the tariff truce and issues like fentanyl, with reports indicating the U.S. has frozen technology export restrictions to China[1] - China announced a nationwide childcare subsidy program, providing 3600 yuan (approximately $502) per child per year for families with children under three years old, expected to benefit over 20 million families annually[1][12] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector saw significant gains, particularly in innovative drugs, contributing to market momentum[1] - China’s budget deficit reached a record high in the first half of the year, with increased fiscal spending aimed at mitigating the impact of tariffs[12]

Group 1 - The upcoming US-China trade talks in Sweden are crucial, with a focus on avoiding a complete decoupling between the two economies, as stated by US Treasury Secretary [1][4] - The agenda will include not only tariffs but also discussions on oil purchases from Russia and Iran, technology export controls, rare earth export restrictions, procurement agreements, market access, and specific cases involving corporate executives [2][6] - The US aims to extend the "tariff truce" by 90 days to allow for further negotiations, reflecting a shift in strategy to engage in more complex and long-term discussions rather than relying solely on tariffs [4][6][8] Group 2 - The US is under pressure to negotiate with other countries, as evidenced by recent actions against the EU and Japan, indicating a broader strategy of "isolationism and coercive negotiation" [4][6] - The current talks signify a move towards a comprehensive economic dialogue rather than just a focus on tariffs, suggesting that the discussions will cover a wider range of economic issues [8] - The US recognizes that resolving trade differences with China requires a long-term approach, acknowledging that past negotiations have taken significant time and complexity [6][8]

Market Overview - A-shares adjusted with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33% to 3593.66 points, Shenzhen Component down 0.22%, and ChiNext Index down 0.23%[1] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.09% to 25388.35 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.13% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 1.16%[1] - The semiconductor sector showed strong gains, with total market turnover reaching 281.7696 billion HKD[1] Trade Agreements - The US and EU reached a trade agreement, setting a 15% tariff on most EU goods exported to the US, including automobiles[1] - US-China officials are set to hold a third round of trade talks in Stockholm, aiming to extend the tariff "truce" and broaden discussion topics[1][9] Economic Indicators - The US stock market saw slight gains, with the Dow Jones up 0.47%, S&P 500 up 0.4% to 6388.64 points, and Nasdaq up 0.24% to 21108.32 points[1] - China's budget deficit for the first half of the year reached a record high of 5.25 trillion RMB (approximately 733 billion USD), a 45% increase year-on-year[13] Corporate Developments - Beijing Construction (925) is moving forward with privatization plans, with a significant shareholder already holding 24.60% of the company[11] - Jiangsu Zhonghui Biotech has submitted a new application for a Hong Kong IPO after previously withdrawing its A-share listing application[11] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing trade negotiations and economic uncertainties, impacting investor confidence and stock performance[1][13]

中美会谈前夕，美国竟临时改变主意，想要给中国定下死规矩，对于美国出尔反尔、过河拆桥的行径，中国该如何应对呢？ 日前美国财政部长贝森特在接受采访期间，表示中美将在8月"关税休战"到期前进行磋商。5月中美在瑞士日内瓦会谈期间，确认达成临时性的"关税 休战"，双方相互降低关税，为期三个月。算算时间，这一轮"关税休战"正是在8月到期。因此在休战到期前，中美会开启新的磋商，达成更多共 识，并延长"关税休战"。那么既然如此，中美新一轮磋商前景如何呢？ 华之行。普京已经安排访华是此前已经公开的事实，但俄方此时公开有关消息，不排除它们也是担心因为美国的施压，给中俄合作造成困扰，所以 先放出风声，表现出俄罗斯对中俄关系的重视，稳定中俄关系，避免中俄合作被破坏。 贝森特透露，他打算将中国对俄罗斯和伊朗石油的采购纳入到谈判讨论范围内。因为伊朗核问题，美国当下还在对伊朗保持制裁，也不准别国购买 伊朗的石油。至于对俄罗斯，近期无论是美国还是北约方面都放话称，一旦美国总统特朗普给俄罗斯的50天期限到期，俄罗斯还没有和乌克兰达成 停火协议的话，美国就要对俄罗斯实施严厉制裁，至于和俄罗斯进行能源贸易的国家，比如中国、印度和巴西，美国则会针对 ...

几天前，美国与中国双方相继发表声明，宣布将于瑞典举行经贸会谈，这是自今年五月份以来两国进行的第三轮贸易谈判。这一消息受到广泛关注，因为它 可能对这两个全球最大经济体之间的关系产生深远影响。 根据中国商务部的公告，中方官员定于7月27日至30日赴瑞典，与美方进行经贸磋商。同时，美国财政部长贝森特也公布，他将于7月28日和29日在瑞典首都 斯德哥尔摩与中方代表进行贸易谈判。此次会谈被外界高度关注，双方的具体讨论内容和未来合作可能的方向都成为大众热议的话题。 贝森特在谈到这次谈判的目的时表示，此次会议的主要目标是延长目前的"关税休战"，并进一步扩大双方的讨论范围。有消息透露，中美双方可能计划将现 有的休战期延长三个月，加上之前的90天，最终实现为期六个月的关税暂时豁免。这一发展无疑是对两国经济的积极信号，承诺了在某种程度上降低贸易摩 擦的可能性。 据了解，特朗普提出的计划包含大约90项具体建议。与拜登政府对于全球高端AI芯片限制的政策有所不同，特朗普政府的主张则是促进美国AI软件和硬件 的出口，同时打击那些被认为对AI发展限制过多的地方性法律。他在发布该计划时，直言不讳地指出美国与中国在科技竞争中的利害关系，并强调 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the upcoming trade talks between China and the U.S., scheduled for July 27-30 in Sweden, aimed at extending the "tariff truce" and expanding the discussion topics [1][2] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the negotiations will cover China's export controls on rare earths, market access issues, and overall tariff levels [1] - The Chinese government has paused the antitrust investigation against DuPont China Group, signaling a potential easing of tensions following a series of retaliatory measures taken by China in response to U.S. tariffs [1] Group 2 - Experts emphasize the importance of these talks in building on the outcomes of previous discussions, particularly in resolving tariff issues related to fentanyl and enhancing economic cooperation between the two nations [2] - There is a general expectation from analysts that the new round of talks in Sweden will lead to further consensus, as dialogue is preferred over confrontation to create a more predictable environment for businesses [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively reshaping global trade rules by imposing significant tariffs on allies and restricting trade with China, which has led to a notable decline in trade volumes between the U.S. and China [1][3]. Trade Impact - U.S. tariffs have resulted in a 20.8% year-on-year decline in trade between the U.S. and China in the second quarter, reversing the growth seen in the first quarter [3]. - In the first half of the year, the total trade value between China and the U.S. was 2.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the previous year [1]. Trade Recovery Signs - June data showed a recovery in trade, with imports and exports between China and the U.S. exceeding 350 billion yuan, a significant increase from May's figures [3]. - The recovery is attributed to a temporary agreement reached in May, which paused tariff increases for 90 days, leading to increased imports from China as U.S. importers stockpiled goods [3]. China's Trade Resilience - Despite U.S. pressures, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2% [3][5]. - China has diversified its trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with ASEAN (9.6% increase) and Africa (14.4% increase) [5]. U.S. Domestic Policy Disputes - There are increasing divisions within the U.S. regarding tariff policies, with some officials advocating for a more cautious approach to avoid negative economic consequences [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is reflected in the internal conflicts within the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [5]. Future Trade Negotiations - As the deadline for the tariff pause approaches, there is speculation about the potential for further negotiations between the U.S. and China, with both sides showing a willingness to avoid escalating tensions [8][10]. - China's recent trade agreements and zero-tariff policies for least developed countries are seen as efforts to stabilize its trade amidst external pressures [8].