Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The release of US PCE data has led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant position - building has pushed up the gold price. Although the increase in positions is difficult to maintain at a high level, the gold price is expected to be strong but with a narrowing increase. The premium of Shanghai Gold has converged to - 0.9 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The US PCE data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and combined with tariff concerns, the silver price has risen significantly. With the possibility of increased silver tariffs and strong capital promotion, the silver price is expected to remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US PCE data increased interest - rate cut expectations, large - scale position - building pushed up the gold price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US PCE data and tariff concerns led to a significant rise in the silver price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 120 kg to 39744 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11231 kg to 1207227 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan in Hokkaido - Tuesday and Wednesday: Vietnam on holiday - 17:00: Eurozone's preliminary CPI for August - 19:30: Participation of an ECB Executive Board member in the 2025 ECB Legal Conference - 20:45: Speech by an ECB Governing Council member at a payment - related event - 21:45: Final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August - 22:00: US ISM Manufacturing Index for August and construction spending for July [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continues, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the increase in the silver price may expand [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold on September 1, 2025, was 230,052, an increase of 8.07% from August 31; the short - position volume was 67,515, an increase of 13.39%; the net position was 162,537, an increase of 6.00% [30]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver on September 1, 2025, was 367,335, an increase of 10.49% from August 29; the short - position volume was 279,207, an increase of 11.74%; the net position was 88,128, an increase of 6.69% [31].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a period of upward movement after a recent rebound, but the bullish momentum is slowing down, leading to continued fluctuations and adjustments in price [1][3]. Market Performance - International gold prices opened at $3366.90 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3344.88, and peaked at $3408.23 before closing at $3397.90, marking a weekly increase of $35.44 or 1.05% from the previous week's close of $3362.46 [1]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $63.35, indicating significant volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - The market is facing resistance from profit-taking, but there is still buying support due to concerns over tariffs and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [3][6]. - The Trump administration clarified that imported gold would not be subject to tariffs, which initially boosted gold prices but later led to a reduction in bullish momentum [3]. - The upcoming U.S. CPI data is expected to show rising inflation, which could lower interest rate cut expectations, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained interest rates, but there is a growing expectation for multiple rate cuts by the end of the year, with some officials advocating for cuts as early as September [6]. - Economic concerns, including weak employment data, have heightened expectations for rate cuts, which could support gold prices [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or even $2600 [8]. - However, as long as prices remain above the 5-month moving average, there is potential for a rebound and new highs [8]. - Weekly charts show that gold prices are currently supported by previous upward trend lines, indicating a likelihood of upward movement after adjustments [10]. Short-term Strategy - The immediate focus for gold prices is on the support levels around $3384 or $3371, with resistance at $3405 or $3415 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector's business conditions deteriorated for the first time since December of the previous year due to ongoing tariff concerns dominating the business environment [1] Group 1 - The chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Chris Williamson, highlighted the impact of tariff worries on the manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - The platinum market is experiencing unprecedented tightness due to tariff concerns and speculative buying, leading to significant flows of platinum from London and Zurich to U.S. and Chinese warehouses [1] - After a record increase last month, spot prices have reached new highs, with one-month implied borrowing costs for platinum hitting the highest level since data collection began in 2002 [1] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses earlier this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight price retreat, market tensions remain unresolved, with spot premium structures strengthening as buyers pay significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to future contracts [5] - The rise in leasing rates is partly attributed to industry users questioning the sustainability of the recent price surge, which has seen platinum prices soar nearly 60% year-to-date [7] - The World Platinum Investment Council anticipates a supply deficit of nearly 1 million ounces this year, further depleting already limited ground inventories [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to rumors about the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of further adjustments and potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 16, gold prices opened at $3324.52 per ounce, initially supported by buying pressure but later faced resistance, leading to a low of $3319.51 and a high of $3376.99 during the day [3][5]. - The final closing price for gold was $3347.41, reflecting a daily increase of $22.89, or 0.69%, with a trading range of $57.48 [3][5]. - The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the PPI, which has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating potential support and a possible entry point for bullish positions if prices decline further [8][10]. - The daily chart shows that gold is maintaining a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting that after this period of volatility, there may be an upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3355 and $3366 [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, with expectations that most of these will exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of Powell's dismissal adds uncertainty, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6].

Group 1 - Investor sentiment in Europe has improved as corporate earnings reports approach, leading to a decline in euro credit default swap (CDS) prices [1] - The iTraxx Europe crossover index, which tracks eurozone high-yield bond CDS, fell by 2 basis points to 281 basis points [1] - Analyst Joshua Mahony noted that the European market showed a positive trend, moving past the tariff concerns that dominated the weekend news [1]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices surged, reaching over 68,000, with a subsequent pullback but still maintaining a rise of over 3% [2] - Weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 690 tons to 18,813 tons, with a projected increase of 3.9% in July to 81,150 tons [4] - The market sentiment is primarily driven by emotional factors, with limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to potential short-selling opportunities as prices rise [4] Group 2: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures rose over 3%, breaking through 8,700, marking a three-month high [5] - The supply side saw a slight increase in operating furnaces, with a total of 232 furnaces operating at a rate of 29% [5] - Despite the positive sentiment, the fundamental outlook for industrial silicon remains cautious, with limited demand changes and expectations of constrained upward movement in prices [6] Group 3: Silver Market - Spot silver prices surpassed $39 per ounce, reaching the highest level since September 2011, with a daily increase of over 1.6% [7] - Geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and positive price expectations are driving silver prices upward, with projections suggesting silver could surpass gold in investment value by 2025 [9] - The market is currently influenced by rising tariff concerns and inflation expectations, providing strong support for precious metals, particularly silver [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil led to a recovery in gold prices and a significant increase in silver prices, with Shanghai silver hitting a new record high. The tariff concerns resurfaced, but the gold price fluctuations were limited. The increase in silver price was driven by gold price recovery and recent capital inflows, and the upward trend of silver price remained unchanged [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to decline. The gold price sentiment was high and it was still prone to rise rather than fall. The silver price mainly followed the gold price, and the tariff concerns had a stronger impact on the silver price, which was prone to an enlarged increase [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US three major stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the European three major stock indexes fell across the board. The US bond yields rose across the board, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 6.15 basis points to 4.409%. The US dollar index rose 0.10% to 97.59, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly to 7.1783. COMEX gold futures rose 1.34% to $3370.30 per ounce. The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was below the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold in terms of stock indexes, bond yields, and the US dollar index performance. COMEX silver futures rose 4.74% to $39.08 per ounce. The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The market speculated that Trump planned to sanction Russian crude oil, and the tariff concerns resurfaced, causing the gold price to recover. The premium of Shanghai gold converged to 1.18 yuan/gram. Trump's change in attitude towards Russia drove up the gold price due to the hedging demand, but the reaction was limited [4]. - **Silver**: The market speculation about Trump's plan to sanction Russian crude oil, combined with recent capital inflows, led to a significant increase in the silver price. Shanghai silver continued to hit a new record high, and the ratio of silver to gold continued to decline. The premium of Shanghai silver converged to about 330 yuan/kilogram. The tariff fluctuations resurfaced, and the capital support remained, so the upward trend of the silver price remained unchanged [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's May core machinery orders [15] - 10:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference to introduce the import and export situation in the first half of 2025 [16] - 15:00 The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial statistics in the first half of 2025 [16] - 20:30 Canada's May wholesale sales [16] 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis was - 4.01, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 27 kilograms to 21,585 kilograms [5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6,435 kilograms to 1,303,593 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai gold, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 190,529, a decrease of 1,296 or - 0.68% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 60,067, a decrease of 2,596 or - 4.14%; the net position was 130,462, an increase of 1,300 or 1.01% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased. For the top 20 positions in Shanghai silver, on July 11, 2025, the long position volume was 451,592, an increase of 60,922 or 15.59% compared with July 10; the short position volume was 345,222, an increase of 31,598 or 10.08%; the net position was 106,370, an increase of 29,324 or 38.06% [6][33].

Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a state of oscillation due to the game between the convergence of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about tariffs, and the market is waiting for the Fed's June meeting minutes [2] - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan provides support for the gold price, limiting its downside space, and the tariff dynamics and the Fed's June meeting minutes will be the main focus of gold market traders [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - On July 7, US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea [3] - German Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Lindner emphasized that the EU is still willing to remain open and continue negotiations but will not accept any unequal conditions [3] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday instructing federal agencies to strengthen the provisions in the "Great American Act" to abolish or modify tax credits for solar and wind energy projects [3] Price Logic - The failure of the gold price to break through $3350 is mainly due to the cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, which weakens the attractiveness of gold. Although Trump's tariff announcement has short - term stimulated the safe - haven demand for gold, the stabilization of the US dollar has limited the rebound of the gold price [4] - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the face of potential tariff inflation pressure, as reflected by the sharp rise of the US dollar against the yen and the upward movement of US Treasury yields [4] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [5]