Report Overview - **Date**: October 13, 2025 - **Source**: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to tariff concerns, the price rebounded. Although the sentiment eased on Monday, the upward trend remains. The premium of Shanghai gold slightly expanded to -9.6 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, affected by tariff threats, the price rebounded on Monday after a decline. The premium of Shanghai silver significantly converged to -581 yuan/gram, and there is still support for the silver price [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the gold price rebounded. On Monday, the sentiment eased, and the gold price continued to rise. COMEX gold futures rose 1.58% to $4035.50 per ounce. The U.S. three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European three major stock indexes also closed down, U.S. Treasury yields fell collectively, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 1.95 basis points to 4.117%, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.57% to 98.84, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.1478 [4]. - **Silver**: Affected by Trump's tariff threats, U.S. stocks tumbled, and the silver price rebounded on Monday after a decline. COMEX silver futures rose 0.76% to $47.52 per ounce [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is -3.25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 70,728 kilograms, unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is -62, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 1,169,061 kilograms, a daily decrease of 17,785 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Japan and Canada's stock markets are closed for holidays throughout the day. - China's September trade balance is to be released at an unspecified time during the day. - A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window opens at an unspecified time during the day. - The winner of the Nobel Economics Prize will be announced at 17:45. - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene will give a speech at 19:05. - The World Bank and the IMF will hold the 2025 Autumn Annual Meeting throughout the day until October 18. - 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will give a speech at 00:10 the next day [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation since Trump took office, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the new U.S. government's policies will continue, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, the shadow Fed's significant influence, rising expectations of interest rate cuts, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for the silver price. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for the silver price [13][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold on October 10, 2025, was 216,933, a decrease of 12,288 or 5.36% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 77,992, a decrease of 1,688 or 2.12%; the net position was 138,941, a decrease of 10,600 or 7.09% [5][31]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the main long position increased. The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver on October 10, 2025, was 343,384, a decrease of 564 or 0.16% compared to the previous day; the short - position volume was 249,445, a decrease of 9,664 or 3.73%; the net position was 93,939, an increase of 9,100 or 10.73% [6][34].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint There is a concern about tariffs again, leading to a correction in Shanghai copper prices, but the expected depth of the decline is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - The Shanghai copper market rallied after the holiday, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened on a weekly basis [11] Fundamental Data - On October 10, the spot TC for copper concentrates was about -$40.7/ton, still at a low level [15] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24] - After the holiday, both the spot inventory and bonded area inventory of electrolytic copper increased [25] - LME copper inventory decreased on a weekly basis, while COMEX copper inventory increased on a weekly basis [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased significantly on a weekly basis this week, as the post - holiday copper price rally suppressed consumption and dragged down the operating rate [28] - From September 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 16% year - on - year [31] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [32] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual figure of the same period last year [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, rebounding for the second consecutive month [37] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [39] - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts [40]

Group 1 - Precious metals continue to rise, with spot gold reaching $4060 and silver surpassing $50.80, driven by historical short squeeze in London and trade tensions [1] - Concerns over potential tariffs on gold and other precious metals from the White House have led to significant increases in platinum and palladium prices [1] - President Trump threatened additional tariffs on China, increasing market risk and supporting demand for safe-haven assets like precious metals [2] Group 2 - The U.S. consumer confidence index fell to a five-month low, while Federal Reserve officials expressed support for further rate cuts, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [2] - The Shanghai gold futures maintain a bullish outlook, with key support at 905, and potential targets of 935/950 [3] - Shanghai silver experienced a significant rise to around 12480, with a bullish trend expected to continue, supported by a key level at 11100 [3]

Group 1 - Nvidia's significant investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, leading to record highs in the three major U.S. stock indices and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, reflecting heightened market sentiment [1] - Risk assets and safe-haven assets have both reached historical highs, raising questions among investors about whether the market has achieved "perfect pricing" and if it has fully reflected all positive factors, potentially limiting future gains [3] - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that the market is far from "perfect pricing," indicating that concerns about future risks provide potential upside for the market [3][4] Group 2 - The report outlines five key reasons why the market is not "perfectly priced," starting with the historical high in gold prices, which signals market fear rather than extreme optimism [4] - Current U.S. inflation expectations remain elevated, with the 2-year inflation swap rate at 2.92%, indicating that inflation pressures are priced in, which limits the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates [7][5] - Ongoing tariff concerns persist, with potential for additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and critical minerals, reflecting unresolved risks in the market [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. labor market shows signs of concern, with non-farm payroll growth averaging only 64,000 over the past six months, the lowest in the current economic cycle, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%, the highest since late 2021 [9] - There is a widespread expectation among investors for further interest rate cuts by major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which reflects concerns about potential economic slowdown rather than strong economic signals [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The rise of precious metals on September 1st was driven by macro - policy expectations and political risks. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut and concerns about the Fed's independence boosted the prices of gold and silver. Looking ahead, the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions in the market [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs A. Price Performance - On September 1st, gold and silver prices rose significantly. The Shanghai gold main contract rose 2.08% intraday, the COMEX gold price hit a record high, and the London spot gold price approached $3500 per ounce. The Shanghai silver main contract soared 4.16%, and both COMEX silver and London silver reached their highest levels since 2012 [3]. B. Driving Factors - The rise was due to dual drivers of macro - policy expectations and political risks. Fed Chair Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole meeting increased the market's expectation of a restarted interest - rate cut cycle in September. Trump's intention to dismiss Fed Chair Cook and control the Fed raised concerns about central - bank independence, enhancing the safe - haven appeal of precious metals. Also, the US Geological Survey's plan to list silver as a critical mineral led to tariff concerns, boosting silver's performance [3]. C. Market Outlook - The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and political intervention risks will remain the core contradictions. Technically, the next target for gold is $3900 - $4000, and silver may challenge the $49 - $50 historical high [3]. D. Key Data to Watch - In the coming week, focus on US labor - market data, ISM manufacturing and services PMI data. The weekly range for London gold is [3350, 3600], and for London silver is [38, 42] [6]. E. Index Performance - On September 1st, the commodity index was 2212.10 (-0.02%), the commodity 20 index was 2466.23 (+0.08%), and the industrial products index was 2227.31 (-0.73%). The precious metals index on September 1st had a daily increase of 2.63%, a 5 - day increase of 3.10%, a 1 - month increase of 4.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.38% [43][45].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The release of US PCE data has led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant position - building has pushed up the gold price. Although the increase in positions is difficult to maintain at a high level, the gold price is expected to be strong but with a narrowing increase. The premium of Shanghai Gold has converged to - 0.9 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The US PCE data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and combined with tariff concerns, the silver price has risen significantly. With the possibility of increased silver tariffs and strong capital promotion, the silver price is expected to remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US PCE data increased interest - rate cut expectations, large - scale position - building pushed up the gold price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US PCE data and tariff concerns led to a significant rise in the silver price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 120 kg to 39744 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11231 kg to 1207227 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan in Hokkaido - Tuesday and Wednesday: Vietnam on holiday - 17:00: Eurozone's preliminary CPI for August - 19:30: Participation of an ECB Executive Board member in the 2025 ECB Legal Conference - 20:45: Speech by an ECB Governing Council member at a payment - related event - 21:45: Final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August - 22:00: US ISM Manufacturing Index for August and construction spending for July [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continues, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the increase in the silver price may expand [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold on September 1, 2025, was 230,052, an increase of 8.07% from August 31; the short - position volume was 67,515, an increase of 13.39%; the net position was 162,537, an increase of 6.00% [30]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver on September 1, 2025, was 367,335, an increase of 10.49% from August 29; the short - position volume was 279,207, an increase of 11.74%; the net position was 88,128, an increase of 6.69% [31].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a period of upward movement after a recent rebound, but the bullish momentum is slowing down, leading to continued fluctuations and adjustments in price [1][3]. Market Performance - International gold prices opened at $3366.90 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3344.88, and peaked at $3408.23 before closing at $3397.90, marking a weekly increase of $35.44 or 1.05% from the previous week's close of $3362.46 [1]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $63.35, indicating significant volatility in the market [1]. Influencing Factors - The market is facing resistance from profit-taking, but there is still buying support due to concerns over tariffs and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [3][6]. - The Trump administration clarified that imported gold would not be subject to tariffs, which initially boosted gold prices but later led to a reduction in bullish momentum [3]. - The upcoming U.S. CPI data is expected to show rising inflation, which could lower interest rate cut expectations, negatively impacting gold prices [5]. Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting maintained interest rates, but there is a growing expectation for multiple rate cuts by the end of the year, with some officials advocating for cuts as early as September [6]. - Economic concerns, including weak employment data, have heightened expectations for rate cuts, which could support gold prices [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold prices have not reached new highs for three consecutive months, suggesting potential risks of a decline to $3000 or even $2600 [8]. - However, as long as prices remain above the 5-month moving average, there is potential for a rebound and new highs [8]. - Weekly charts show that gold prices are currently supported by previous upward trend lines, indicating a likelihood of upward movement after adjustments [10]. Short-term Strategy - The immediate focus for gold prices is on the support levels around $3384 or $3371, with resistance at $3405 or $3415 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing sector's business conditions deteriorated for the first time since December of the previous year due to ongoing tariff concerns dominating the business environment [1] Group 1 - The chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, Chris Williamson, highlighted the impact of tariff worries on the manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - The platinum market is experiencing unprecedented tightness due to tariff concerns and speculative buying, leading to significant flows of platinum from London and Zurich to U.S. and Chinese warehouses [1] - After a record increase last month, spot prices have reached new highs, with one-month implied borrowing costs for platinum hitting the highest level since data collection began in 2002 [1] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses earlier this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight price retreat, market tensions remain unresolved, with spot premium structures strengthening as buyers pay significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to future contracts [5] - The rise in leasing rates is partly attributed to industry users questioning the sustainability of the recent price surge, which has seen platinum prices soar nearly 60% year-to-date [7] - The World Platinum Investment Council anticipates a supply deficit of nearly 1 million ounces this year, further depleting already limited ground inventories [7]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing volatility due to rumors about the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which has led to fluctuations in gold prices, with expectations of further adjustments and potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark [1][3][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 16, gold prices opened at $3324.52 per ounce, initially supported by buying pressure but later faced resistance, leading to a low of $3319.51 and a high of $3376.99 during the day [3][5]. - The final closing price for gold was $3347.41, reflecting a daily increase of $22.89, or 0.69%, with a trading range of $57.48 [3][5]. - The market is currently influenced by various economic indicators, including a surprising drop in the PPI, which has reduced inflationary pressures and bolstered expectations for interest rate cuts [5][6]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold prices have not broken below the 10-week moving average, indicating potential support and a possible entry point for bullish positions if prices decline further [8][10]. - The daily chart shows that gold is maintaining a triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting that after this period of volatility, there may be an upward movement, with key resistance levels at $3355 and $3366 [10]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, retail sales, and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, with expectations that most of these will exert downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The market's reaction to Trump's denial of Powell's dismissal adds uncertainty, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6].