Group 1 - The international gold price has shown a recovery after hitting a low of $3282.56 per ounce, closing at $3357.76, with a weekly fluctuation of $86.16 and a gain of $23.21, or 0.7% [1][3] - The market is influenced by concerns over tariffs and geopolitical tensions, which have increased the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset [7][8] - The expectation of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is supporting gold demand, with indications that there may be three rate cuts next year [8][9] Group 2 - The dollar index has shown signs of recovery but has not exerted sustained pressure on gold prices, with the market reacting to new tariff agreements and geopolitical developments [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are currently above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend unless this support is broken [11][12] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for gold, with expectations of further price increases in the coming months, despite potential short-term corrections [9][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold prices are in a state of oscillation due to the game between the convergence of interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about tariffs, and the market is waiting for the Fed's June meeting minutes [2] - The uncertainty of Trump's tariff plan provides support for the gold price, limiting its downside space, and the tariff dynamics and the Fed's June meeting minutes will be the main focus of gold market traders [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Key Information - On July 7, US President Trump stated that starting from August 1, he will impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imported products from 14 countries including Japan and South Korea [3] - German Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister Lindner emphasized that the EU is still willing to remain open and continue negotiations but will not accept any unequal conditions [3] - US President Trump signed an executive order on Monday instructing federal agencies to strengthen the provisions in the "Great American Act" to abolish or modify tax credits for solar and wind energy projects [3] Price Logic - The failure of the gold price to break through $3350 is mainly due to the cooling of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in July, which weakens the attractiveness of gold. Although Trump's tariff announcement has short - term stimulated the safe - haven demand for gold, the stabilization of the US dollar has limited the rebound of the gold price [4] - The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the face of potential tariff inflation pressure, as reflected by the sharp rise of the US dollar against the yen and the upward movement of US Treasury yields [4] Outlook - The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [35, 38] [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to decline; in the medium - term, it will fluctuate; and the intraday view is weakly fluctuating, with a suggestion of waiting and seeing. For copper, in the short - term and medium - term, it is expected to rise; and the intraday view is strongly fluctuating, with a short - term bullish outlook [1] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold - Short - term view: decline; medium - term view: fluctuation; intraday view: weakly fluctuating; reference view: wait and see. Core logic: US non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, leading to a stronger dollar and putting pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the decline in market risk appetite since last Friday and the high - level adjustment of US stocks increased short - term safe - haven demand for gold, providing support for gold prices [1][3] Copper - Short - term and medium - term view: rise; intraday view: strongly fluctuating; reference view: short - term bullish. Core logic: Last week, the macro environment cooled, the US interest - rate cut expectation decreased, and tariff concerns increased, causing copper prices to fall. On Monday, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions. On the industrial side, supply is expected to decrease due to smelter losses and policy expectations, and demand is strong but marginally declining. Technically, attention should be paid to the 20 - day moving average support [1][5]

Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The core view is that gold prices are expected to decline below $3000 per ounce in the coming quarters, marking the end of the current record rally [1][2] - Citigroup analysts predict that gold prices will peak between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in Q3 of this year, before gradually falling to a range of $2500 to $2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026, representing a decline of approximately 20-25% from current forward prices [2] - The report outlines three scenarios for gold price movements: a base case (60% probability) where prices remain above $3000 per ounce for the next quarter before declining, a bullish case (20% probability) where geopolitical tensions and inflation risks push prices to new highs, and a bearish case (20% probability) where resolution of tariff issues leads to a sharp price drop [4] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - Short-term, gold is expected to maintain high prices in Q3 due to strong investment demand [5] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by concerns over tariffs, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks, rather than central bank purchases; resilient jewelry consumption also supports prices [6] - Global gold expenditure as a percentage of GDP has reached 0.5%, the highest level in the past fifty years, indicating strong investor preference for gold as a safe-haven asset [7] Group 3: Future Economic Conditions - In Q4, global growth confidence may improve slightly, particularly with the implementation of U.S. stimulus budgets, which could reduce safe-haven sentiment; a potential shift towards more moderate trade policies under Trump may also decrease market uncertainty [9] - Expectations of a shift from tightening to a neutral stance by the Federal Reserve could further diminish gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [9] - Historical data over the past 55 years shows that when investment demand declines, gold prices tend to fall, as price adjustments lead to reduced jewelry consumption and encourage inventory holders to sell [10] Group 4: Industrial Metals Outlook - In contrast to gold, Citigroup maintains a structurally bullish outlook on industrial metals despite short-term pressures from tariffs and weak demand [11] - The aluminum market is particularly favored, with the report highlighting aluminum as a "future-facing" metal, constrained on the supply side by energy intensity and driven on the demand side by strong growth in AI data centers, humanoid robots, and decarbonization processes [12][13] - Citigroup forecasts a supply shortage in aluminum over the next five years at current price levels, necessitating prices to rise above $3000 per ton to incentivize sufficient supply growth [14]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains unresolved in the short term, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have rebounded significantly [1][8]. Market Performance - Last week, international gold prices opened at $3311.77 per ounce, reached a low of $3293.69, and then rebounded to a high of $3446.53, closing at $3433.74, marking a weekly increase of $121.97 or 3.68% [1][3]. - The weekly price fluctuation was $152.84, indicating strong volatility in the gold market [1]. Influencing Factors - The decline in the US dollar index provided support for gold prices, driven by technical buying and increasing geopolitical tensions, which heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3][7]. - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was lower than expected, enhancing the prospects for interest rate cuts, further supporting gold prices [3][7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that despite recent volatility, gold prices remain above the 5-month moving average, maintaining a bullish trend since last year [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold prices have been consistently moving higher, with the potential to reach $3500 or $3545 in the near future [11][13]. Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, along with concerns over tariffs and economic conditions, are expected to sustain demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [7][8]. - The market anticipates continued upward movement in gold prices, supported by both technical indicators and fundamental factors [8][10].

Core Insights - US one-year inflation expectations decreased from 6.6% last month to 5.1% this month, marking a three-month low [1] - Long-term inflation expectations fell for the second consecutive month, dropping from 4.2% in May to 4.1% [1] - Consumer concerns regarding the potential impact of tariffs on future inflation have eased in June [1] Inflation Expectations - The one-year inflation rate expectation is now at 5.1%, down from 6.6% [1] - Long-term inflation expectations are at 4.1%, down from 4.2% [1] - Both indices represent the lowest levels in three months [1] Consumer Sentiment - There is a general belief that trade policies may still lead to inflation increases over the next year, despite the easing of tariff concerns [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that U.S. household wealth decreased in the first quarter due to stock market declines driven by tariff concerns [1] - As of March 31, household and nonprofit net worth fell to $169.3 trillion, down from $170.9 trillion in the previous quarter, marking the lowest level since mid-last year [1] - This decline in household net worth is the first since the third quarter of 2023, primarily attributed to a $2.3 trillion drop in the value of stocks held by households [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve reported that the value of real estate held by households also decreased by approximately $200 billion, continuing a trend of falling home prices for the third consecutive quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced fluctuations with a bullish outlook despite some short-term adjustments, supported by technical indicators and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][8][9]. Market Performance - Gold prices opened the week at $3298.53 per ounce, reached a weekly low of $3294.75, and peaked at $3402.97 before closing at $3310.90, marking a weekly increase of $18.97 or 0.58% [1][3]. - The weekly price volatility was $111.04, indicating significant market activity [1]. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns initially boosted gold prices, but positive U.S. employment data on Friday reduced interest rate cut expectations, leading to a price decline [3][8]. - The market is currently influenced by mixed economic data, with the potential for further adjustments in gold prices due to upcoming inflation data and ongoing trade negotiations [6][8]. Technical Analysis - Gold remains above the 5-10 week moving averages and key support levels, indicating a potential for upward movement if it stabilizes above $3366 [3][11]. - The monthly chart shows a bullish trend despite recent volatility, with expectations for gold to maintain high levels or strengthen further in the coming years [11][9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations for prices to reach $3500 or higher, driven by ongoing geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [5][9]. - The market will closely monitor U.S. inflation data and its impact on interest rates, which could either support or pressure gold prices [6][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bullish sentiment in the gold market, driven by geopolitical risks and trade tensions, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach $3,500 per ounce in the near future [1][8]. Market Performance - On June 4, gold opened at $3,353.67 per ounce, fluctuating within a range of $20-25, hitting a low of $3,343.67 and a high of $3,384.45, ultimately closing at $3,372.14, marking a daily increase of $18.47 or 0.55% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $40.78, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Influences - The U.S. dollar index faced resistance and retreated, which supported gold prices. Weak U.S. economic data raised expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the dollar index back to a six-week low [3][5]. - Geopolitical tensions and trade concerns have reignited, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold as previous easing pressures dissipated [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have maintained a bullish support trend above the May moving average, suggesting continued upward momentum [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold remains above the 5-week moving average, reinforcing a bullish outlook as it awaits a test of the $3,500 level [11]. - The daily chart indicates that while bullish momentum has weakened, gold is still positioned above key support levels, suggesting potential for further gains towards $3,435 or $3,500 [13]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment remains positive for gold prices over the next one to two years, with expectations for high-level adjustments or further increases [8]. - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. jobless claims and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which may influence market dynamics [5][8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market, U.S.-China trade relations, and various sectors including consumer goods, technology, and dividend stocks. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Tariff Concerns** The U.S. has increased tariff threats against China, particularly targeting AI and chip design software exports, which may disrupt trade negotiations and worsen U.S.-China relations [1][3][4] 2. **Short-term Tariff Impact** The likelihood of imposing new tariffs in the short term is low due to the U.S. retail sector's peak ordering season, with a 90-day grace period before any potential tariffs take effect. However, risks may rise post-grace period [5][6] 3. **Judicial Intervention in Trade** The U.S. judicial system's involvement in trade disputes may gradually reduce the extremity of tariff increases, indicating a potential shift in tariff authority back to Congress in the long term [6] 4. **Dividend Stocks in June** June typically sees seasonal pressure on dividend stocks due to profit-taking, leading to lower excess returns and win rates despite being a peak dividend distribution period [7][8] 5. **Long-term Outlook for Dividend Stocks** Despite short-term volatility, dividend stocks remain strategically significant in a low-interest-rate environment, with high dividend yields observed in indices [9] 6. **Focus on Emerging Consumption Sectors** The market is currently focused on service consumption, new consumption, and biomedicine, which are supported by policies and show strong performance. Notable companies in these sectors are less crowded, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] 7. **Weakness in Traditional Consumer Sectors** Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and automobiles are underperforming due to declining consumer interest and the cessation of government subsidies, leading to concerns about their future growth [12][13] 8. **Technology Sector Trends** The technology sector is expected to rebound in the short term, with a long-term focus on significant capital expenditures and breakthroughs in areas like AI and robotics [14] 9. **Anti-Tariff Themes** The anti-tariff theme is performing steadily, with sectors like rare earths benefiting. The market is gradually desensitizing to tariff concerns, avoiding significant volatility [15] 10. **Recommended Industries** Key recommended industries include beauty care, biomedicine, computing, non-ferrous metals, social services, agriculture, defense, and retail, all of which are seen as having good growth potential [16][17] 11. **Market Outlook** The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, supported by domestic demand resilience, with a focus on service consumption and emerging sectors as key growth drivers [18]