Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the progress and future expectations regarding the clearance of government debts owed to enterprises, highlighting the allocation of special bonds for this purpose [1][11][19] - In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated a debt limit of 1.2 trillion yuan to support local governments in resolving hidden debts and clearing overdue payments to enterprises [1][11] - By 2025, the government plans to use newly issued special bonds, amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, to address overdue payments and support investment projects [1][11][19] Group 2 - Recent developments show that several provinces have announced budget adjustments, with Yunnan Province allocating 356 billion yuan for debt clearance, while Hunan Province allocated 200 billion yuan, representing 14% of its annual special bond limit [13][14] - The total amount of special bonds confirmed for debt clearance currently stands at 556 billion yuan, with expectations that it may exceed 1 trillion yuan for the year [18][19] - The overall trend indicates that the use of special bonds for debt clearance may limit the funds available for project construction [2][19] Group 3 - Observations of the effectiveness of debt clearance can be gauged through the accounts receivable situation of enterprises, with significant increases in the average collection period for both industrial enterprises and A-share listed companies [20] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the average accounts receivable turnover days for A-share listed companies reached 52.6 days, indicating a longer collection period compared to previous years [20] - Industries with traditionally longer accounts receivable turnover days include water conservancy and environmental protection, which averaged 185 days [20] Group 4 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown an upward trend, reaching 7.94% as of June 15, 2025, driven by factors such as asphalt operating rates and retail sales of passenger vehicles [25][26] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 21% year-on-year in mid-June, continuing a positive trend from previous months [28] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, indicating potential challenges in infrastructure development [36] Group 5 - The issuance of new special bonds is expected to increase significantly, with plans to issue over 400 billion yuan in a single week, marking a new high for 2024 [62][63] - The downward trend in funding rates is evident, with the DR001 rate at 1.3742% as of June 20, 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [74]

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index has increased to 6.35% as of June 8, up from 5.82% on May 25, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car retail sales, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [1][7][8] - Passenger car retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 19% before June, compared to 13.3% in May and 14.5% in April [1][11] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in the first 13 days of June across 67 cities, compared to a 13% decline in May [1][12] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates continued to rise, with asphalt operating rates at 31.5% as of June 11, up 9.3% year-on-year [1][19] - Cement dispatch rates reached 41.4% as of June 6, slightly up from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [1][19] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17.5% year-on-year as of June 13, indicating a recovery in coal production [1][20] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption showed a decline in metro passenger traffic and flight operations, with metro ridership averaging 76.17 million daily in 27 cities, down 0.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The land premium rate has significantly decreased to 1.04% as of June 8, down from 5.14% in May and 9.75% in April, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [3][13] Trade and Prices - Global oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil rising by 13% and Brent crude by 11.7% [2][39] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.5%, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 7.6%, reflecting higher shipping costs [2][39] - U.S. imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 9.4% in early June, and imports from China decreased by 28% [3][25] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - Government bond yields slightly decreased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.4002%, 1.5447%, and 1.6440% respectively as of June 13 [4][59] - New special bond issuance has progressed faster than in 2024, with a total of 1.69 trillion yuan issued by June 13, representing 38.4% of the annual target [3][47]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index decreased to 5.03% as of May 18, down 0.12% from 5.15% on May 11[11] - Cement shipment rate increased to 41.5% as of May 16, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week, consistent with the same period last year[20] - The average land premium rate for 100 cities dropped to 1.37% as of May 18, down from an average of 5.5% in the previous three weeks and 9.69% in April[15] Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April[5] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24, compared to a 23.1% decline at the end of April[35] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.1% as of May 23, indicating a drop in shipping demand[28] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rebounded significantly, with COMEX gold closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase[1] - Domestic coal prices continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price for power coal dropping by 0.5% to 611 yuan per ton[38] - The price index for iron ore (62% Fe) decreased by 1.4%, settling at $99.7 per ton[38] Debt Issuance - As of May 23, 2025, the issuance of new special bonds reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with an estimated total for the year at 4.4 trillion yuan, marking a progress rate of 38.3%[45] - The net financing progress for general government bonds reached 39.4% as of May 23, compared to 28.6% during the same period last year[53]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 景气向上 1 、基建：石油沥青装置开工率上升。 5 月第二周，石油沥青装置开工率为 34.4% ，第一周为 28.8% ； 4 月 3 日 -4 月 30 日四周，平均为 28.8% 。 2 、外贸：潜在转口或有所提升。 截至 5 月 15 日的一周内，东盟主要国家港口停靠船舶数量有所反 弹，环比 5 月第一周 +0.8% ，上一周环比 +0.9% 。 景气向下 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数：环比走弱，但仍在 5% 以上。 截至 5 月 11 日，该指数为 5.16% ，环比 5 月 4 日的 7.73% 下行 2.58% 。 4 月以来指数上行的主要驱动因素包括基建和乘用车消费，工业 生产、耐用品消费、服务消费提振有限。 债券发行： 截至 5 月 18 日， 29 个地方披露了 2025 年 5 月 /Q2 地方债发行计划（含已知发 行），其中新增专项债发行计划已披露 4159 亿 /10872 亿（ 2024 年同期，已披露地区实际发行 4391 亿 /75 ...

核心观点 过去一年多，我国服务贸易政策的调整，可以分为三个方向：一是增加国内优质服务供给，扩大电 信、医疗、教育、文化等领域制度型开放。二是促进入境消费，缩小旅游逆差，以"免签扩围延时、退 税免税升级"为主要手段。三是出于技术保护和关税反制角度，限制部分优势技术出口，以及美国电影 进口。 报告摘要 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 前言 在货物贸易不确定性增多的背景下，服务贸易将更加凸显其重要性。因此，本期周报关注我国服务贸 易逆差现状，以及过去一年服务贸易政策的调整情况。 1 、增加优质供给：首次发布负面清单，推动制度型开放 2024 年 3 月，我国首次发布全国版《跨境服务贸易特别管理措施（负面清单）》，这是我国首次对 跨境服务贸易实施负面清单管理，意义重大。 但对比高标准 CPTPP 等高标准经贸规则，负面清单中，金融、交运、文化、通信等行业，市场准入 仍有开放空间，可能也是后续要推进的重点领域 。如今年政府工作报告提出，"推进服务业扩大开放 综合试点示范，推动互联网、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic indicators show a mixed trend, with some sectors experiencing growth while others face declines, indicating potential investment opportunities and risks in various industries. Group 1: Economic Activity - The transportation department reported a 9.7% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow on April 4, compared to a 6% increase during the Spring Festival [2] - Cement shipment rates have risen for seven consecutive weeks, reaching 42.7% as of March 28, up 4.5 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The land premium rate in 100 cities increased to 23.12% for the week ending March 30, compared to 14.55% in March and 10.42% in February [2] Group 2: Declining Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index fell below 4% for the first time since the Spring Festival, registering at 3.84% as of March 30, down 1.34% from March 23 [3][7] - Container throughput at monitored ports decreased by 0.7% week-on-week as of March 30, with a four-week cumulative year-on-year increase of 8.9%, lower than the 10.3% increase in January-February [3][23] - Major commodities saw significant price drops due to tariff impacts, with COMEX gold down 1.8%, LME copper down 9.5%, and both WTI and Brent crude oil down over 10% [3][29] Group 3: Debt Issuance and Interest Rates - As of April 4, 23 provinces disclosed plans for local bond issuance, with new special bond issuance plans totaling 263.5 billion out of 856.4 billion [4][33] - Interest rates have declined due to tariff impacts, with DR001 at 1.6273%, DR007 at 1.6981%, and R007 at 1.7428%, all showing significant decreases from March 28 [4][35] - The yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were reported at 1.4829%, 1.5616%, and 1.7180%, respectively, with declines noted since March 28 [4][35] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - During the Qingming Festival, cross-regional travel increased by 9.7%, with rail, water, civil aviation, and road transport all showing growth [12] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles fell to a 3% year-on-year increase as of March 31, down from 8% previously [13] - Real estate sales remain weak, with a 29.8% year-on-year decline in residential sales in 67 cities during the first three days of April [13] Group 5: Production and Trade - The cement shipment rate has improved, while the asphalt production rate has shown a downward trend, indicating mixed signals in the construction sector [17] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 7.2% as of April 4, reflecting challenges in the shipping industry [22] - Domestic container shipping rates have increased, with the Shanghai export container freight index rising by 2.8% [23]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 （一）景气向上 1 ）外需：海外主要经济体制造业 PMI 均值回到荣枯线上。 2 月，美国、欧元区、日本、印度、英国均值 50.0% ，高于 1 月 49.6% ，连续第二个月回升。 2 ）土地：周度溢价率回升。 1 月 27 日 -2 月 23 日四周，百城土地溢价率平均为 9.02% ，其中近一周增 至 18.39% 。 1 月全月为 9.52% ，去年 12 月为 3.59% 。 （二）景气向下 3 ）出行链偏弱。 2 月全月， 27 城地铁日均客运较去年农历同期 +2.7% ，较公历 +18% 。航班， 2 月全 月日均 1.378 万架次，较去年 -0.9% 。 4 ）节后工地复工：仍不及去年同期。 据百年建筑调研，截至 2 月 27 日（农历正月三十），全国 13532 个工地开复工率为 64.6% ，劳务上工率 61.7% ，农历同比分别减少 12.64 个点、 12.03 个点。 债券发行情况： 1~2 月已发行新增专项债 6036 亿（去年同期 ...