Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both upward and downward movements in various sectors, including real estate, consumer goods, and infrastructure, while also noting the impact of external trade dynamics. Group 1: Economic Upturn - Land premium rates have rebounded to 7% as of July 13, with a two-week average of 5.9%, compared to 5.47% in June and 4.93% in May [2][10] - Domestic resource prices continue to rise, with significant increases in coal and steel prices, including a 1.6% rise in Shanxi thermal coal and a 6.7% increase in main coking coal prices [2][35] - Infrastructure activities are performing better than last year, with the oil asphalt operating rate at 32.8%, up 6.3% year-on-year, and cement dispatch rates at 40.1%, compared to 37.4% last year [2][16] Group 2: Economic Downturn - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has decreased to 5.96% as of July 13, down from 7.05% on July 6, indicating a decline in economic activity [3][5] - Retail sales growth for passenger vehicles has slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% as of July 13, down from 15% in June and 13.3% in May [3][9] - The decline in residential property sales has widened, with a 23.7% decrease in transaction area for 67 cities as of July 18, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] Group 3: Trade Dynamics - Port container throughput has decreased, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2% as of July 13, down from 4.5% the previous week [3][20] - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has also declined, with a 15-day year-on-year decrease of approximately 11.1% as of July 19 [3][21] Group 4: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.59 trillion yuan issued as of July 18, representing 59% of the annual target, faster than the 42% progress of the previous year [4][41] - Bond market yields have shown fluctuations, with the one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.3490%, 1.5256%, and 1.6652%, respectively, as of July 18 [4][60]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has risen to over 7%, reaching 7.08% as of July 6, up from 6% on June 29, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car sales [2][6][7] - Domestic flight numbers have slightly increased, with 14,400 flights executed in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3% compared to 12,800 flights in June [2][9] - The operating rate of asphalt facilities has increased to 32.7% as of July 9, up 4.7% year-on-year and 1% week-on-week [2][16] Group 2: Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars have shown a decline, with a year-on-year growth of only 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously and 15% in June [3][9] - The sales of commercial residential properties have decreased significantly, with a 24% year-on-year drop in transaction area for the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [3][9] - The land premium rate has decreased to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June [3][10] Group 3: Price Trends - Resource prices continue to rise, with various commodities such as coal and steel experiencing price increases due to "anti-involution" sentiments [2][39] - The price of Shanxi-produced power coal (Q5500) has increased by 1.4%, while the price of coking coal has risen by 9.8% [2][39] - The national average price of second-hand houses has decreased by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities seeing a 0.2% decline [3][41] Group 4: Trade and External Demand - China's port container throughput has rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 4.5% as of July 6, up from 3.1% the previous week [2][19] - The export growth rate to the U.S. has shown a decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 13.2% in the first eight days of July [20][21] - The shipping demand from China to the U.S. has decreased, with a 10.8% year-on-year drop in the number of container ships dispatched [20][21] Group 5: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued as of July 11, representing 54.3% of the annual target, faster than the previous year's pace [3][44] - The yields on government bonds have increased, with the 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653% respectively, reflecting increases from the previous week [4][58]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

Group 1: Economic Trends - Service consumption shows an upward trend with domestic flight executions increasing to 14,300 flights in the first five days of July, up 4% year-on-year compared to 12,800 flights in June, which was up 0.8% year-on-year [1][10] - Land premium rates have rebounded from low levels, reaching 7.8% in the week of June 29, with a three-week average of 4.3%, compared to 4.93% in May [1][11] - Prices in coal and real estate infrastructure sectors have risen due to "anti-involution" trends, with prices for Shanxi-produced thermal coal increasing by 0.5%, rebar prices in Shanghai up by 2.9%, and iron ore price index rising by 2% [1][32] Group 2: Downward Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index remains at a high level at 6% as of June 29, down 1.63 points from 7.63% on June 22, indicating a general decline in indicators such as commodity housing transaction area and coal throughput [2][7] - Real estate sales have seen a significant decline, with a 30% year-on-year drop in housing transaction area in 67 cities in the first four days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June [2][10] - Foreign trade shows a decline, with container throughput at domestic ports dropping to a 3.1% year-on-year decrease as of June 29, down from 4.3% the previous week [2][18] Group 3: Debt and Interest Rates - The issuance of new special bonds has surpassed half of the annual target, with 2.2 trillion yuan issued by June 30, representing a 50.5% progress compared to 38.5% in the same period last year [3][38] - Interest rates have decreased post-half-year, with DR001 at 1.3140%, DR007 at 1.4222%, and R007 at 1.4881%, showing declines of -5.43bps, -27.46bps, and -43.2bps respectively from June 27 [3][46] Group 4: Production and Consumption - The construction sector shows fluctuations in asphalt and cement dispatch rates, with asphalt plant operating rates at 31.7%, up 6.5% year-on-year, while cement dispatch rates are at 40.8%, slightly down from the previous week [14][17] - Industrial production indicators such as coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port have shown a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in early July, maintaining stability compared to June [14][18] Group 5: Price Movements - Domestic commodity price indices have shown mixed trends, with the BPI down by 0.5% while the RJ/CRB commodity price index increased by 0.6% [31][37] - Prices for major commodities like copper, gold, and oil have risen, with COMEX gold at $3,332.5 per ounce, up 1.9%, and Brent crude oil at $68.3 per barrel, up 0.8% [31][37]

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index was at 6.00% as of June 29, 2025, down 1.63 percentage points from 7.63% on June 22, but still at a high level[7] - Domestic flight operations increased to 14,300 flights in the first five days of July, up 4% year-on-year, compared to 12,800 flights in June, which was up 0.8% year-on-year[9] - The land premium rate rebounded to 7.8% in the week of June 29, with a three-week average of 4.3%, compared to 4.93% in May[12] Real Estate and Trade - Real estate sales in 67 cities showed a year-on-year decline of 30% in the first four days of July, worsening from a 17.6% decline in June and a 13% decline in May[10] - Container throughput at Chinese ports fell to a year-on-year decline of 3.1% as of June 29, down from 4.3% the previous week[25] - Direct trade flow between China and the U.S. saw a 1.8% year-on-year decline in the number of container ships departing for the U.S. as of July 5, down from 3.3% at the end of June[26] Price Trends - Prices for coal and real estate construction materials rose due to "anti-involution" trends, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 0.5% and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 2.9%[45] - The domestic commodity price index fell by 0.5%, while the overseas commodity price index rose by 0.6%[45] Debt and Interest Rates - As of June 30, 2025, new special bonds issued reached 2.2 trillion yuan, accounting for 50.5% of the annual target, higher than 38.5% in the same period last year[54] - The funding rates for DR001, DR007, and R007 decreased by 5.43bps, 27.46bps, and 43.2bps respectively compared to June 27[67]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the progress and future expectations regarding the clearance of government debts owed to enterprises, highlighting the allocation of special bonds for this purpose [1][11][19] - In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated a debt limit of 1.2 trillion yuan to support local governments in resolving hidden debts and clearing overdue payments to enterprises [1][11] - By 2025, the government plans to use newly issued special bonds, amounting to 4.4 trillion yuan, to address overdue payments and support investment projects [1][11][19] Group 2 - Recent developments show that several provinces have announced budget adjustments, with Yunnan Province allocating 356 billion yuan for debt clearance, while Hunan Province allocated 200 billion yuan, representing 14% of its annual special bond limit [13][14] - The total amount of special bonds confirmed for debt clearance currently stands at 556 billion yuan, with expectations that it may exceed 1 trillion yuan for the year [18][19] - The overall trend indicates that the use of special bonds for debt clearance may limit the funds available for project construction [2][19] Group 3 - Observations of the effectiveness of debt clearance can be gauged through the accounts receivable situation of enterprises, with significant increases in the average collection period for both industrial enterprises and A-share listed companies [20] - As of the first quarter of 2025, the average accounts receivable turnover days for A-share listed companies reached 52.6 days, indicating a longer collection period compared to previous years [20] - Industries with traditionally longer accounts receivable turnover days include water conservancy and environmental protection, which averaged 185 days [20] Group 4 - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown an upward trend, reaching 7.94% as of June 15, 2025, driven by factors such as asphalt operating rates and retail sales of passenger vehicles [25][26] - Retail sales of passenger vehicles increased by 21% year-on-year in mid-June, continuing a positive trend from previous months [28] - The construction sector is experiencing a decline in asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates, indicating potential challenges in infrastructure development [36] Group 5 - The issuance of new special bonds is expected to increase significantly, with plans to issue over 400 billion yuan in a single week, marking a new high for 2024 [62][63] - The downward trend in funding rates is evident, with the DR001 rate at 1.3742% as of June 20, 2025, reflecting a decrease from the previous week [74]

Economic Outlook - The Huachuang Macro WEI Index has increased to 6.35% as of June 8, up from 5.82% on May 25, driven mainly by asphalt operating rates and passenger car retail sales, indicating a recovery in infrastructure and durable goods consumption [1][7][8] - Passenger car retail sales maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 19% before June, compared to 13.3% in May and 14.5% in April [1][11] - Real estate sales showed a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% in the first 13 days of June across 67 cities, compared to a 13% decline in May [1][12] Infrastructure and Production - Infrastructure indicators such as asphalt plant operating rates and cement dispatch rates continued to rise, with asphalt operating rates at 31.5% as of June 11, up 9.3% year-on-year [1][19] - Cement dispatch rates reached 41.4% as of June 6, slightly up from the previous week and higher than the same period last year [1][19] - Coal throughput at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17.5% year-on-year as of June 13, indicating a recovery in coal production [1][20] Consumer Behavior - Service consumption showed a decline in metro passenger traffic and flight operations, with metro ridership averaging 76.17 million daily in 27 cities, down 0.4% year-on-year [3][11] - The land premium rate has significantly decreased to 1.04% as of June 8, down from 5.14% in May and 9.75% in April, indicating a cooling in the real estate market [3][13] Trade and Prices - Global oil prices surged due to geopolitical conflicts, with WTI crude oil rising by 13% and Brent crude by 11.7% [2][39] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 20.5%, and the China Export Container Freight Index rose by 7.6%, reflecting higher shipping costs [2][39] - U.S. imports continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 9.4% in early June, and imports from China decreased by 28% [3][25] Interest Rates and Debt Issuance - Government bond yields slightly decreased, with 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year yields reported at 1.4002%, 1.5447%, and 1.6440% respectively as of June 13 [4][59] - New special bond issuance has progressed faster than in 2024, with a total of 1.69 trillion yuan issued by June 13, representing 38.4% of the annual target [3][47]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 如何观察"以旧换新"的速度？ ❖ 以旧换新：4 月中旬以来在提速 1、数据与方法：基于商务部不定期公布的 5 大类消费品（汽车、家电、电动 车、家装厨卫、数码）以旧换新进度数据，可计算某个时间段内的日均换新数 量，我们以此观察消费品换新的速度。 2、近期消费品换新速度如何？ 5 月，消费品换新或在提速，结构上：汽车下、 家电升、电动车平。 3、物价：海外大宗品价格明显反弹，黄金、原油、铜均上涨。RJ/CRB 商品 价格指数上涨 3.6%；COMEX 黄金收于 3308.2 美金/盎司，上涨 0.6%；LME 三个月铜价上涨 1.6%；美油、布油分别上涨 6.2%、4%。 （二）景气向下 1）汽车，有所放缓，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 3.8 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 3.9 万台；2024 年 9-12 月（2024.8.23~2024.12.31）日均 4.7 万台。 2）家电，有所提速，5 月（4.28~5.31）日均换新量约 82.9 万台，4 月（3.25~4.27） 约 63 万台；受数据限制，观察 2024 年 10- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates a mixed economic outlook, with some sectors showing recovery while others face declines, particularly in exports and commodity prices [2][4][30]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index has shown a slight decline, standing at 5.03% as of May 18, down from 5.15% on May 11 [4][9]. - Infrastructure remains a key driver of economic activity, particularly in asphalt construction rates, which increased to an average of 30.58% from 26.95% [10]. - The cement shipment rate has rebounded to 41.5%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [17]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption - Land premium rates have significantly decreased, with a current rate of 1.37% compared to an average of 5.5% over the previous three weeks [5][14]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles have shown a slight decline, with a growth rate of 12.4% as of May 18, down from 14.5% in April [13]. - The average daily subway ridership in 27 cities remained stable at 78.88 million, consistent with last year [13]. Group 3: Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China have sharply declined, with a year-on-year drop of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April [5][23]. - The number of container ships from China to the U.S. has decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24 [5][23]. - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has shown a year-on-year decline of 26.1% [21]. Group 4: Commodity Prices - Gold prices have rebounded significantly, closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase [3][30]. - Prices for coal and real estate-related commodities have weakened, with Shanxi thermal coal prices down 0.5% and rebar prices down 1.3% [6][30]. - The overall commodity price index (BPI) has decreased by 0.3% domestically, while the CRB index has increased by 0.2% internationally [30][36]. Group 5: Debt and Financing - New special bond issuance has accelerated compared to last year, with a total of 1.68 trillion yuan issued as of May 23, representing 38.3% of the annual target [6][37]. - The issuance of general and special government bonds has also outpaced last year's progress, with net financing rates of 39.4% and 42.1%, respectively [6][37].

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index decreased to 5.03% as of May 18, down 0.12% from 5.15% on May 11[11] - Cement shipment rate increased to 41.5% as of May 16, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous week, consistent with the same period last year[20] - The average land premium rate for 100 cities dropped to 1.37% as of May 18, down from an average of 5.5% in the previous three weeks and 9.69% in April[15] Trade and Exports - U.S. imports from China fell significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% in the first 21 days of May, compared to a 9.9% increase in April[5] - The number of cargo container ships from China to the U.S. decreased by 37.5% year-on-year as of May 24, compared to a 23.1% decline at the end of April[35] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) showed a year-on-year decline of 26.1% as of May 23, indicating a drop in shipping demand[28] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rebounded significantly, with COMEX gold closing at $3,351 per ounce, a 5% increase[1] - Domestic coal prices continued to decline, with the Qinhuangdao port price for power coal dropping by 0.5% to 611 yuan per ton[38] - The price index for iron ore (62% Fe) decreased by 1.4%, settling at $99.7 per ton[38] Debt Issuance - As of May 23, 2025, the issuance of new special bonds reached 1.68 trillion yuan, with an estimated total for the year at 4.4 trillion yuan, marking a progress rate of 38.3%[45] - The net financing progress for general government bonds reached 39.4% as of May 23, compared to 28.6% during the same period last year[53]