【一周一议】 建议重视四川路桥的西南基建龙头定位，当前兼具西南基建景气+股息率。2025 年 1-6 月四川省公路水路交通建设完 成投资 1349 亿元、居全国第二，较 2024 年同期增长 3.5%。时间过半，全年基建任务有望加快。近期公司公告，成渝 公司、高路信息、路桥集团、交建集团、华西股份共同组建的联合体参与投标 G5 京昆高速公路成都至雅安段扩容工 程（总投资 285.48 亿元，项目自筹资本金比例为 20.20%，约为 57.67 亿元）。我们持续看好西部陆海新通道在内循环 中的重要定位，公司作为西南基建龙头，有望充分受益。今年 2 月，公司公告 2025-27 年度股东回报规划，提及"公 司每一年度以现金方式分配的利润不低于当年度归属于上市公司股东的净利润的 60%"（在满足正常经营所需资金的 条件下），对股息率形成较好支撑。 继续看好非洲建材及建材出海第一股、产销本土化龙头【科达制造】，半年度预告高增验证非洲建材高景气。从创造 税收、拉动就业、丰富产业链各个角度看，非洲更需要打造本土制造，保护本地薄弱的供应链体系，因此相对外贸， 产销一体化、本土化的企业更受当地认可，同步出海非洲和南美洲的还包 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 报告摘要 一、景气向上 ： 1 、物价："反内卷"情绪延续，国内资源品价格继续大幅上涨。 山西产动力末煤 (Q5500) 秦皇岛港 平仓价、京唐港山西主焦煤库提价、钢之家焦炭价格指数、螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数 :62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、南华玻璃指数分别上涨 1.7% 、 16.7% 、 7.7% 、 5.5% 、 4.3% 、 26% 。 2 、土地溢价率回升。 7 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率回升至 7.8% ，近三周平均为 6.5% 。 6 月 为 5.47% 。 3 、贸易：港口集装箱吞吐量有所反弹 。 7 月 20 日当周，我国港口集装箱吞吐量环比 +2.6% ，上 周为 -0.9% ；四周累计同比为 4.3% ，上周为 4.4% 。 二、景气向下： 1 、华创宏观 WEI 指数继续回落。 截至 7 月 20 日， WEI 指数为 5.84% ，较 7 月 13 日下行 0.12% 。 4 月以来，上行的主要因素是沥青开工率、乘用车批零。 2 、 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】第 30 期 集装箱吞吐量反弹 一、景气向上： 1、物价："反内卷"情绪延续，国内资源品价格继续大幅上涨。山西产动力末 煤(Q5500)秦皇岛港平仓价、京唐港山西主焦煤库提价、钢之家焦炭价格指数、 螺纹钢上海现货价、铁矿石价格指数:62%Fe:CFR 中国北方、南华玻璃指数分 别上涨 1.7%、16.7%、7.7%、5.5%、4.3%、26%。 2、土地溢价率回升。7 月 20 日当周，百城土地溢价率回升至 7.8%，近三周平 均为 6.5%。6 月为 5.47%。 3、贸易：港口集装箱吞吐量有所反弹。7 月 20 日当周，我国港口集装箱吞吐 量环比+2.6%，上周为-0.9%；四周累计同比为 4.3%，上周为 4.4%。 二、景气向下： 1、华创宏观 WEI 指数继续回落。截至 7 月 20 日，WEI 指数为 5.84%，较 7 月 13 日下行 0.12%。4 月以来，上行的主要因素是沥青开工率、乘用车批零。 2、商品房成交偏弱。我们统计的 67 个城市，7 月前 25 日，商品房成交面积 同比-20.5%。6 月同比为-17.6%。5 月同比-13%。 ...

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the CSI A-shares is 19.7 times, positioned at the historical 78th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.4 times, at the historical 59th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 500 Index is 29.5 times, at the historical 51st percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 33.1 times, at the historical 16th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the CSI 1000 Index is 39.7 times, at the historical 55th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the National CSI 2000 Index is 52.1 times, at the historical 69th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Sci-Tech 50 Index is 137.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the North Exchange 50 Index is 67.5 times, at the historical 94th percentile [2][5] - The ChiNext Index PE relative to the CSI 300 is 2.5 times, at the historical 7th percentile [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense and Military Industry, Aviation and Airports, Light Industry Manufacturing, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and Computer (IT Services, Software Development) [2][6] - The Passenger Vehicle industry has a PB valuation above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - No industries have both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, upstream prices continue to rebound due to expectations of "anti-involution" policies, with polysilicon futures prices rising by 15.5% and spot prices by 17.1% [2][3] - In the battery sector, cobalt and nickel prices decreased by 1.7% and 1.0% respectively, while lithium carbonate prices increased by 3.1% [2][3] - In June 2025, the retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles in China increased by 18.1% year-on-year, with new energy vehicles seeing a 29.7% increase [2][3] Real Estate Chain - The spot price of rebar increased by 1.7%, while iron ore prices rose by 2.8% [2][3] - The national cement price index decreased by 1.6% due to slow inventory digestion [2][3] - Glass prices saw a slight increase, with spot prices up by 0.5% [2][3] Consumption - The average price of live pigs decreased by 3.5%, while wholesale pork prices increased by 0.1% [2][3] - The wholesale price index for liquor increased slightly by 0.04% [2][3] - Corn prices fell by 0.7%, while wheat prices decreased by 0.2% [2][3] Technology TMT - China's semiconductor sales increased by 13.0% year-on-year in May 2025, although the growth rate slowed compared to April [2][3] Cyclicals - Brent crude oil futures prices rose by 3.1% to $70.63 per barrel, driven by summer travel and power generation demand [2][3] - The price of thermal coal increased by 1.4% due to rising consumption during the summer peak [2][3]

Valuation Summary - The overall PE of the A-share market is 19.2 times, positioned at the historical 74th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the Shanghai 50 Index is 11.2 times, at the historical 57th percentile [2][5] - The PE of the ChiNext Index is 31.9 times, at the historical 13th percentile, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels [2][5] - The PE of the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index is 136.8 times, at the historical 98th percentile, suggesting a high valuation [2][5] Industry Valuation Comparison - Industries with PE valuations above the historical 85th percentile include Real Estate, Steel, Electric Equipment (Photovoltaic Equipment), National Defense, Aviation, Chemical Pharmaceuticals, and IT Services [2][6] - No industries have PB valuations above the historical 85th percentile [2][6] - Industries with both PE and PB valuations below the historical 15th percentile include Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, Fishery, and Medical Services [2][6] Industry Midstream Prosperity Tracking New Energy - In the photovoltaic sector, the spot price of the photovoltaic industry chain continues to decline, while the futures price of polysilicon has increased by 5.8% [2] - The price of silicon wafers has decreased by 1.4%, and the price of battery cells has remained stable [2] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of newly installed wind power from January to May 2025 has increased by 134.2% [2] Financial Sector - Insurance companies' premium income from January to May 2025 has increased by 3.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 1.5 percentage points compared to the first three months [3] Real Estate Chain - The price of rebar has remained stable, while the price of cement has decreased by 1.6% due to weak demand from real estate and traditional infrastructure projects [3] Consumer Sector - The average price of live pigs has increased by 3.5%, while the wholesale price of pork has decreased by 0.5% [3] - The wholesale price index of liquor has decreased by 0.11% [3] Midstream Manufacturing - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of foreign contracted engineering business from January to May 2025 has increased by 5.4% [3] Cyclical Industries - The price of Brent crude oil has decreased by 12.9%, closing at $67.31 per barrel [3] - The price of thermal coal has increased by 1.8%, closing at 620 yuan per ton [3]