Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullishness in both domestic and international sugar prices is mainly driven by crude oil prices, while in the long term, the sugar market is fundamentally dominated, and both the domestic and international sugar markets are in a supply surplus pattern [2][7] - In the short term, sugar prices are weakly driven by their own fundamentals and mainly fluctuate in line with crude oil prices. In the medium and long term, the global sugar fundamentals have not been significantly impacted for the time being, and an ample supply expectation is still maintained [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Movement - Affected by crude oil prices, white sugar has seen sharp short - term volatility. The ZCE white sugar main contract rose sharply on March 9th and dropped on March 10th [1][2] Commentary Valuation Perspective - Short - term disturbances mainly come from the conflict in the Middle East. During the conflict, crude oil prices dominate the short - term trend, affecting trade of importers in the Middle East and fuel transportation costs in global trade, pushing prices to fluctuate upward in the short term [3][8] - If the conflict persists, rising crude oil prices will drive up gasoline prices, boost the price of ethanol as an alternative, and may lead to a low sugar production ratio in Brazil, resulting in lower sugar production and exports in Brazil, tighter global sugar supply, and further pushing up sugar prices [3][8] - Once the conflict ends, crude oil prices are expected to fall rapidly, and the sugar market will return to trading based on fundamentals, focusing on planted areas of major producing countries, the impact of weather on yield per unit area, and sugar production data of major producing countries [3][8] Fundamental Side - The global sugar market will be in a supply surplus pattern in the 25/26 crushing season, with major producing countries expected to increase production. Domestic and international sugar prices are at a phased bottom, and the medium - and long - term fundamental surplus has not changed [4][8] - China's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 crushing season has been revised upward to 7.10 - 7.22 million tons, an increase of 220,000 - 300,000 tons from the previous forecast [4][8] Future Scenarios of the Middle East Conflict - If the conflict ends in the short term, the bullish effect of the phased rise in crude oil prices can only support a short - term rebound in sugar prices. After crude oil prices fall, the effect will fade, and the market will return to the fundamental logic [5][9] - If the conflict persists for a long time, high crude oil prices will not only push up sugar prices in the short term but also tighten sugar supply through factors such as trade and sugar - spilt ratio. Coupled with the potential negative impact of El Niño on sugar production in major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere, it will further reduce the global sugar supply surplus in the next crushing season or even shift to a shortage, driving sugar prices into an upward channel from the current bottom range [5][9] Conclusion - Short - term sugar prices are mainly driven by crude oil prices. If oil prices remain strong, sugar prices will stay firm; otherwise, they will adjust accordingly [6][9] - In the medium and long term, the global sugar market maintains an ample supply expectation. Once geopolitical disturbances weaken, sugar prices may return to a range - bound pattern at the bottom [6][9] - If the conflict persists and leads to sustained high oil prices, which may reduce sugar production in Brazil's next crushing season, the timing of the reversal in the sugar price cycle may come ahead of schedule [6][9] - Future attention should be paid to crude oil prices, the development of geopolitical conflicts, and sugar production data of major producing countries [6][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the sugar industry is neutral - slightly bullish [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The sugar price is affected by energy price transmission, with raw sugar being strong. Although the domestic market is in the off - season, cost support and increased volatility in the external market make the price strong [3] - Various institutions have lowered the surplus expectations for the 2025/26 sugar season. The ISO predicts a supply surplus of 122 tons, a 41 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; Czarnikow predicts a 670 - ton surplus, a 70 - ton reduction from the previous estimate [8] - In the 2025/26 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative sugar production reached 4024 tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase; India's sugar - making process has slowed down year - on - year; Thailand has a slight production increase expectation [3] - As of the end of January, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 689 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 270 tons. Sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased year - on - year [3][57] - There is a profit within the quota, but the import volume in January is expected to be low [3] - The sugar industrial inventory is 419 tons, a 43 - ton year - on - year increase [3] - The ethanol - to - oil ratio fluctuates greatly. The short - term rapid increase in crude oil prices stimulates the demand for ethanol [3] - The raw - white sugar price difference is $107 per ton, indicating normal demand for raw sugar [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Market Production - Brazil: In the second half of January, the sugar production in the central - southern region was 0.5 tons, a 36.31% year - on - year decrease. As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 sugar season, the cumulative sugar production was 4024 tons, a 0.86% year - on - year increase. The ethanol production in the second half of January was 439 million liters, a 9.31% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative ethanol production was 3.1706 billion liters, a 4.64% year - on - year decrease [20][23] - India: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative sugar production was 2463 tons, a 262.5 - ton year - on - year increase, and the average sugar yield was 9.44%, a 0.13% year - on - year increase. The sugar - making process has slowed down year - on - year [35] Supply and Demand - ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season will be 181.29 million tons, a 480,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; the consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a 70,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast; the supply surplus will be 122,000 tons, a 41,000 - ton reduction from the previous forecast [8] - Czarnikow predicts a 670,000 - ton supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season, a 70,000 - ton reduction from the previous estimate [8] - Green Pool predicts a 156,000 - ton supply surplus in the 2026/27 sugar season, lower than the 274,000 - ton surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season [8] Export - As of the week ending February 25, the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped at ports was 1.4617 million tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease. The sugar export volume in Brazil decreased to 2.0175 million tons in January, and the export is expected to continue to slow down [32] Domestic Market Production and Sales - As of the end of January in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 689 tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 270 tons. Sales in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong decreased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, although it is the off - season, the futures market is strong, driving up the spot price, and the sales are okay [3][57] Import - In January, Brazil exported only 0.01 tons of sugar to China, which eases the domestic supply pressure. There is no import volume outside the quota for now. Thailand may be another import source, but the impact is limited [70] Market Indicators - The basis has converged with the rise of the futures market. There is no obvious trend in the monthly spread. In terms of the single - side situation, the global sugar market is in a high - yield cycle, but Brazil's production is slightly lower than expected after being finalized. The year - on - year growth rate of India's sugar production has slowed down. The war between the US, Israel, and Iran may support the sugar price through ethanol price transmission. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, although the actual driving force is limited, the spot price has limited downward space under the policy support, which is beneficial to the far - month contracts [77]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In March 2026, the natural rubber futures price is expected to fill the previous gap, but it is difficult to break through above 18,000 points without further supply - side reduction. The NR futures contract is weaker than RU due to inventory issues, with support at 13,500 - 13,700 and resistance at 14,100 - 14,700. Rubber option volatility and activity have rebounded, and investors can buy out - of - the - money call options on dips. The RU - NR spread is expected to widen, and the Shanghai rubber basis has been oscillating at a high level. The rubber price is likely to rise but difficult to fall deeply, with cautious investors taking partial profits above 17,400 points, and aggressive investors holding long positions or out - of - the - money call options [99][101][112] 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Market行情回顾 (Market Condition Review) - In 2026, the price of natural rubber futures has been affected by various factors such as tariff policies, geopolitical events, raw material prices, and macro - environment. In January, due to abundant domestic liquidity and the rise of synthetic rubber, the rubber futures price followed the upward trend. In March, the natural rubber futures price rose following synthetic rubber due to the US - Iran war and the rise of crude oil prices. The 2 - 3 months are the domestic and Thai rubber tree cutting - off seasons, with tight new rubber supply, strong raw material prices, and rising spot prices. The current domestic whole - milk price is 16,800 - 16,900 yuan/ton, and the delivery profit is slightly inverted. In March, the average weekly price of 20 - standard Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 2,038 US dollars/ton (- 0.22%), and the average weekly price of 20 - mixed Thai rubber was 15,746 yuan/ton (- 0.14%). The natural rubber market turned from strong to weak and oscillated downward in mid - March [7][10][16] Second Part: International基本面情况分析 (International Fundamental Situation Analysis) - **Supply**: In March, major global natural rubber producers are in the seasonal low - production and end - of - cutting - off period, with short - term supply being tight. In 2026, the global natural rubber production is expected to be 15.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% (some institutions predict 14.78 - 14.82 million tons, close to zero growth). The supply side has elasticity, and production is related to weather and price. In 2026, the probability of El Niño is low in the first half of the year and high in the second half, which may lead to drought and production reduction in Southeast Asia. In January 2026, Thailand's natural rubber export volume decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year due to floods and the Chinese Spring Festival effect. Vietnam's natural rubber production and export volume in January were at a seasonal low and decreased. Indonesia's production in January decreased due to seasonal low - production, tree - age aging, and other factors [33][36][42] - **Demand**: Global automobile sales remain at a high level, with a total sales volume of 7.18 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. New energy vehicle sales are 1.42 million, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the penetration rate is 19.7%. Medium and heavy - duty commercial vehicle sales are 275,000, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. If the EUDR bill is implemented as scheduled, the procurement of EUDR rubber will gradually heat up, and the rubber price may rise in the fourth quarter [58][60] Third Part: Domestic基本面情况分析 (Domestic Fundamental Situation Analysis) - **Supply**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber production was 51,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.04%, and the cumulative production from January to December was 928,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.58%. In 2025, Hainan's rubber production was affected by typhoons, and the new - season weather may drive production recovery. In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. In January 2026, the estimated import volume decreased. From January to March 2026, the theoretical production profit of Thai standard 20 - rubber has rebounded, but the overall inventory removal speed is still slow [65][68][70] - **Demand**: In January 2026, China's automobile production was 2.45 million vehicles, basically the same year - on - year and a 25.7% decrease month - on - month. Passenger car production decreased, while commercial vehicle production increased significantly. The total sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in January was 105,400 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.98%. China's tire exports to the Middle East are under short - term pressure, and enterprises may turn to other markets. As of the latest data, tire enterprises have not fully resumed work, and the overseas market has a demand recovery expectation. The social inventory and Qingdao port inventory of natural rubber in China have increased [77][79][82][86][92] Fourth Part: Rubber市场操作机会分析 (Rubber Market Operation Opportunity Analysis) - The rubber futures price is expected to fill the gap in March, but it is difficult to break through above 18,000 points. For NR futures, the support level is 13,500 - 13,700, and the resistance level is 14,100 - 14,700. Investors can buy out - of - the - money call options on dips. The RU - NR spread is expected to widen, and the Shanghai rubber basis has been oscillating at a high level. The key to the domestic natural rubber fundamentals in the future is whether the inventory will stop rising and start to decline in March - April. The rubber price is likely to rise but difficult to fall deeply. Cautious investors can take partial profits above 17,400 points, and aggressive investors can hold long positions or out - of - the - money call options [99][101][112]

棕榈油：能源带动补涨，炒作题材初现 豆油：美豆成本支撑，豆系近端偏强 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周观点及逻辑： 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 03 月 08 日 棕榈油：中东地缘局势升温，极速推高能源价格，POGO 价差一周内从高位跌至负值，对于印尼生柴更 高掺混比例实施的忧虑情绪迅速退散，并随着下半年厄尔尼诺带来的炒作题材，迟迟未跟涨的棕榈油终于 迎来一波补涨，05 合约周涨 5.28%，突破年前高点，触及 9500 元/吨，斋月内多头情绪仍在，关注能源涨 势。 豆油：伊朗局势紧张极速推高能源价格，并通过直接的成本推动效应及新加坡 MFO 加注堵港问题辐射 至国内豆系成本端，同时对于 800 万吨采购的炒作及询价支撑着美豆价格，豆油周涨 2.26%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：对于棕榈迟到的跟涨，我们主要归因于资金对于全球物流运力短期紊乱及能源带来通胀话题 的风偏提升，POGO 价差的快速下行虽引人注目，但做多棕榈并不为 POGO 回归服务，亦不值得称道为做多 棕榈的安全边际，仅是对于印尼生柴更高掺混比例在今年无法实施这一在年度级别 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different products are as follows: white sugar is rated as "Oscillating with a Slight Uptrend", red dates as "Oscillating", natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber as "Oscillating" [1][4][5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For white sugar, multiple international organizations are lowering the expected surplus of global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season due to India and Thailand's sugar - making performance and potential El Niño threats. The short - term technical trend of Zhengzhou sugar is strong, but there is still pressure above the main contract considering sufficient domestic supply and weak overseas raw sugar prices [1] - For red dates, the post - holiday downstream replenishment demand exists, but the supply suppresses the price. As the weather warms up, the weak demand for red dates will be more obvious. The overall supply - demand structure does not support continuous upward movement, and it is difficult to have a bottom - reversal market before the new growing season [4] - For natural rubber, it has fallen slightly from the high. The supply in Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas is in the off - season, while the post - holiday inventory accumulation in China continues and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It will be in an oscillating state in the short term. For synthetic rubber, the overseas geopolitical conflict is the main factor driving the upward movement, but the uncertainty of export and downstream transactions should be noted [5] Group 3: Summary by Product White Sugar - **Market Performance**: On March 5, 2026, the SR605 contract closed at 5330 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.41%, and the night - session closed at 5352 yuan/ton; the SR609 contract closed at 5346 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closed at 5362 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi increased by 6 yuan/ton to 5315 yuan/ton, some sugar - making groups' quotes were adjusted up; in Yunnan, some quotes were also adjusted up; the processing sugar factory's quotes were flat. In the 2025/26 season, as of March 3, 2026, in India's Maharashtra state, 113 sugar mills had stopped production, and the cumulative sugar production was 950.31 million tons, an increase of about 178.05 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 billion tons, an increase of 2.625 billion tons year - on - year [1] - **Market Logic**: The fundamental and technical aspects show a strong trend, but there is pressure above the main contract [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the 5300 - 5430 activity range of the SR605 contract [1] Red Dates - **Market Performance**: On March 5, 2026, the CJ605 contract closed at 8980 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.93%; the CJ609 contract closed at 9290 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.70% [4] - **Important Information**: This week, the domestic red - date sample inventory was 11,817 tons, a decrease of 35 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The wholesale price of Hebei's special - grade red dates was 9.19 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market increased by 1 to 5 [4] - **Market Logic**: The supply suppresses the price, and it is difficult to have a bottom - reversal market before the new growing season [4] - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the CJ605 contract when the price is high [4] Rubber Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of March 5, 2026, the RU main contract closed at 16,555 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.11%; the NR main contract closed at 13,370 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 1.22% [5] - **Important Information**: On March 5, 2026, the price of Thai RSS3 was 70.89 Thai baht/kg, up 0.01 Thai baht/kg; the field latex was 69 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the cup lump was 56.7 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht/kg. As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 6.799 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 122,000 tons, an increase of 1.82% [5] - **Market Logic**: Supply in the off - season, post - holiday inventory accumulation in China, and weak terminal demand lead to short - term oscillation [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see [5] Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: As of March 5, 2026, the BR main contract closed at 14,210 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.78% [5] - **Market Logic**: Geopolitical conflicts drive the upward movement, but attention should be paid to export uncertainty and downstream transactions [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Holders of long BR positions can buy out - of - the - money put options to hedge, and be vigilant against the callback after the conflict eases [5]

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for the sugar, jujube, and rubber sectors are all "oscillating" [1][3][4] Core Views - For the sugar market, short - term macro factors' impact on sugar may weaken. Multiple international organizations are lowering the expected supply surplus of the 2025/26 sugar season. The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar has resistance above, and attention should be paid to the support below [1] - The domestic jujube spot market is gradually recovering, but after the post - festival replenishment, the demand will enter a slack season. The jujube futures price still faces strong resistance to rise, and a bearish view is recommended in the medium - to - long term [3] - For the rubber market, natural rubber is in a short - term oscillating state due to limited supply news from Southeast Asian producing areas, domestic post - festival inventory build - up, and weak terminal demand. Synthetic rubber may see a weakening of the overall upward momentum of the energy - chemical sector after the initial market sentiment shock, and new news is needed for further upward movement [4] Summary by Directory Sugar Market Review - SR605 contract closed at 5321 yuan/ton yesterday, with a daily decline of 0.45%, and closed at 5306 yuan/ton at night. SR609 contract closed at 5332 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.39%, and closed at 5321 yuan/ton at night [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5314 yuan/ton yesterday, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5310 - 5390 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton. The price range of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5160 - 5220 yuan/ton, with the price unchanged. The mainstream price range of processing sugar mills was 5590 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 10 yuan/ton [1] - Czarnikow predicts that the global sugar market will have a surplus of 6.7 million tons in the 2025/26 season, 0.7 million tons less than the previous forecast. The global sugar production is expected to be 184.4 million tons, 2.3 million tons less than the previous forecast [1] - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.48 million tons from the previous forecast; the consumption will be 180.07 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons; the supply surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 million tons [1] - As of February 28, 2025/26 season, India's cumulative cane crushing volume reached 260.896 million tons, an increase of 22.119 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production (excluding ethanol diversion) was 24.63 million tons, an increase of 2.625 million tons year - on - year; the average sugar yield was 9.44%, an increase of 0.13% year - on - year [1] - Yesterday, the number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,461, with a daily increase of 0 [1] Market Logic - Zhengzhou sugar oscillated yesterday, and was strong first and then weak at night. The short - term impact of macro factors on sugar may weaken. Multiple international organizations are lowering the expected supply surplus of the 2025/26 sugar season, mainly due to the actual sugar - making performance in India and Thailand and the potential El Niño threat. The short - term upward pattern of Zhengzhou sugar was damaged last night, and there is still resistance above the main contract [1] Trading Strategy - For the SR605 contract, pay attention to the support at the 5300 mark today. If it breaks through smoothly, short - selling can be considered [1] Jujube Market Review - The CJ605 contract closed at 8895 yuan/ton yesterday, with a daily increase of 0.62%. The CJ609 contract closed at 9170 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.66% [3] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 11,852 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.00% [3] - The wholesale price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei yesterday was 9.19 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0 yuan/kg [3] - The number of arrival vehicles at the Guangdong Ruyifang market yesterday was 1, a decrease of 1 compared with the previous day [3] - The number of jujube warehouse receipts yesterday was 3869, with a daily increase of 0 [3] Market Logic - The domestic jujube spot market is gradually recovering, but there is no new news in terms of fundamentals. After the post - festival replenishment, the demand will enter a slack season. Coupled with inventory pressure, the jujube futures price still faces strong resistance to rise. From a technical perspective, the CJ605 contract still has a bearish atmosphere in the medium - to - long - term, and it is expected to find support at the previous historical low in the future [3] Trading Strategy - Short - sell the CJ605 contract on rallies [3] Rubber Market Review - As of March 3, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,835 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.38%. The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.67%. The closing price of the BR main contract was 13,530 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.48% [4] Important Information - Thailand's Makha Bucha Day was yesterday, a public holiday, and there was no raw material price information [4] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses for natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [4] - The price of whole latex yesterday was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan or 2.05%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2035 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 30 US dollars or 1.45%, equivalent to 14,059 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 1.38% [4] - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts yesterday was 3335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The price difference between the mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 1105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [4] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region yesterday was 11,100 - 11,400 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 10,600 - 10,900 yuan/ton [4] - The market prices of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber rose yesterday. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market rose 250 yuan/ton to 13,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market rose 300 yuan/ton to 13,600 yuan/ton [4] Market Logic - Natural rubber fell from a high yesterday and continued to decline at night. Due to the off - season of rubber supply in Southeast Asian producing areas, there is limited news on the supply side. On the contrary, the post - festival inventory build - up trend in China continues, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials is limited, indicating that the terminal demand is not optimistic. There are also reports that tire factory overseas export orders are blocked due to geopolitical conflicts. Natural rubber has quietly declined under the rhythm of "buying the expectation, selling the reality" and will be in an oscillating state in the short term [4] - Synthetic rubber (BR) was in high - level consolidation yesterday. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to an expected reduction in crude oil supply. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether domestic cracking units will reduce their load defensively. The market has different views on the sustainability of this conflict, and new news is needed for BR to continue to strengthen. In the short term, after the initial market sentiment shock, the overall upward momentum of the energy - chemical sector may weaken, and the development of the event needs to be continuously monitored [4] Trading Strategy - Temporarily observe the RU and NR contracts and pay attention to the technical support below. It is recommended to take profits on BR long positions [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, but the surplus is being revised downward. The sugar price may be affected by the bio - energy trading logic in the short term, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating around 5300 yuan [1]. - The domestic red date spot market is gradually recovering, but after the post - holiday replenishment, the demand will enter the off - season. The red date futures price is facing strong resistance to rise, and the CJ605 contract is expected to decline in the medium - to - long term [3]. - The natural rubber market is affected by synthetic rubber and the overall strength of commodities. The raw materials in Southeast Asia are in the low - production season with strong cost support, but the downstream's ability to accept high - price raw materials is limited and the inventory is accumulating. The synthetic rubber market is driven by geopolitical factors, and the short - term market may continue to be strong, but there may be a callback later [4]. 3. Summary by Variety Sugar - **Market Data**: SR605 contract closed at 5345 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.39% and closed at 5314 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5353 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.34% and closed at 5328 yuan/ton at night [1]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of Guangxi sugar increased by 15 yuan/ton to 5316 yuan/ton. Global sugar supply surplus in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 670 million tons, with a production of 1.844 billion tons. Multiple international organizations have revised down the supply surplus [1]. - **Market Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar price oscillated strongly yesterday and slightly declined at night. The bio - energy trading logic may be magnified in the short term, and the supply surplus is being revised down [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Focus on the 5300 - 5350 activity range for the SR605 contract [1]. Red Dates - **Market Data**: CJ605 contract closed at 8840 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.63%; CJ609 contract closed at 9110 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.55% [3]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 11852 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The wholesale price of Hebei super - grade red dates decreased by 0.01 yuan/kg [3]. - **Market Logic**: The red date spot market is recovering, but the demand will enter the off - season after the post - holiday replenishment, and the futures price faces strong resistance to rise [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go short on the CJ605 contract when the price is high [3]. Rubber - **Market Data**: As of March 2, the RU main contract closed at 17245 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.52%; the NR main contract closed at 13870 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.76%; the BR main contract closed at 13465 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 6.61% [4]. - **Important Information**: The price of Thai raw material glue and cup rubber changed. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 1.82% to 67.99 million tons. The prices of synthetic rubber increased [4]. - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber was slightly stronger due to synthetic rubber and the overall strength of commodities. The raw materials in Southeast Asia are in the low - production season, but the downstream's ability to accept high - price raw materials is limited. Synthetic rubber is driven by geopolitical factors [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the rubber series when the price is high [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, macro - sentiment dominates rubber prices, while fundamental positive drivers are limited. The natural rubber upstream production areas are in the low - yield season, with overseas raw materials and spot prices remaining strong. There are both long and short factors in the market. The domestic production areas are in the off - season, and the all - latex inventory reduction supports the valuation, but high inventory and slow demand recovery are also pressures. It is expected that the natural rubber price will maintain a volatile trend, with short - term support from the sector sentiment but less than that of synthetic rubber. The fundamentals are still under some pressure [1]. - In the near - term, the trading logic focuses on whether the post - holiday demand recovery meets expectations and whether the imports in the second quarter will increase significantly. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the macro - policies of various countries, weather changes, and trade protection policies [6][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment is the main factor affecting rubber prices, and the fundamentals have limited driving force. The upstream production areas are in the low - yield season, with mixed supply signals from different regions. The domestic production areas are in the off - season, and there are concerns about drought and early tapping. The downstream demand recovery is slow, and high inventory is a significant pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillation range for the RU main contract is 16,500 - 17,300, with a short - term support level at 17,000. The NR main contract's oscillation range is 13,300 - 14,000, and an important support level is at 13,500 [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: There are both support and pressure in the range. It is expected that the rubber price will maintain a high - level volatile trend under pressure in the short term [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - **Unilateral Strategy**: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach. Consider going long on RU after a pullback, and take a neutral view on NR [21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Reduce long positions or build protective options. Sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [21]. - **Basis Strategy**: The RU basis is at a high level, and there may be limited room for further increase. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [22]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy**: The 5 - 9 spread focuses on the valuation level with a small number of warehouse receipts. Refer to the seasonal reverse spread market, and go short on the 05 contract on rallies [22]. - **Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Reduce positions in the RU - BR arbitrage; adopt a wait - and - see approach for the deep - shallow spread arbitrage; consider increasing the allocation of Thai mixed rubber in spot rotation, or increasing positions in the Thai mixed - RU05 arbitrage [22]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the rubber RU main contract in the next two weeks is 16,500 - 17,300, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical volatility percentile of 55.35% (3 - year). For the 20 - number rubber NR main contract, the price range is 13,500 - 14,000, with a current volatility of 26.11% and a historical volatility percentile of 68.66% (3 - year) [27]. - **Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high - inventory situations, short rubber futures to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options to increase sales profits [28]. - **Procurement Management**: For low - inventory and future procurement needs, buy rubber far - month futures to lock in procurement costs, buy out - of - the - money call options to reduce cost - increase risks, and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [28]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The upcoming domestic two sessions, the Iran conflict leading to concerns about crude oil supply, strong growth in domestic passenger car retail sales in February, a decline in Thailand's natural rubber exports in January, and the U.S. decision to stop collecting certain tariffs [29][30][31]. - **Negative Information**: The U.S. initial jobless claims, OPEC's decision to increase production, a decline in EU passenger car sales in January, low tire factory start - up rates, and a significant increase in China's natural rubber social inventory [33][34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Key Points to Watch - Monitor the weather conditions and tapping progress in domestic production areas in March, the price changes of overseas raw materials, the import and inventory changes in the second quarter, the post - holiday resumption of work and new orders in the downstream, and macro - events such as the domestic two sessions and the situation in the Middle East [34][35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Near the global low - yield season of rubber, overseas raw material prices continued to rise, and the long - sentiment was strong after the Chinese New Year. However, inventory pressure and weak spot trading restricted further price increases. The RU main contract entered a volatile market after reaching a high, and the NR also rose but faced greater inventory pressure [39]. - **Capital Movement**: Last week, the profit - taking seats on the rubber disk reduced short positions on Shanghai rubber, and the profits declined significantly. The profit - taking seats on the 20 - number rubber maintained a net long position, and the profits increased [44]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Market**: The prices of various rubber varieties showed different degrees of increase. The prices of domestic all - latex, Thai RSS3, and Vietnamese 3L all increased [48]. - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Change**: The all - latex basis declined, and the futures were driven stronger by macro - sentiment. The import of smoked sheets increased, and the valuation of Vietnamese 3L was in a positive spread with RU [52]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The natural rubber price broke through 17,000, and the all - latex inventory reduction supported the spot price. The 05 contract was at a premium, but there were risks of early tapping and weather changes. The NR was under inventory pressure, and the overall structure was C - shaped [65]. - **External Market**: The settlement prices of Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - number rubber showed certain trends, and the spread between domestic and foreign markets also changed [74][77]. - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: The macro - environment drove the rubber market to be strong recently, but the fundamentals were under pressure, and the virtual - to - physical ratios increased [80]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry Rubber Spot Spread**: The inventory of dark - colored rubber increased, and the all - latex inventory decreased. The spread between different rubber varieties showed different trends, and attention should be paid to weather changes and downstream demand recovery [83]. - **Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread**: The spread between natural and synthetic rubber widened recently due to the increase in synthetic rubber inventory and the approaching supply off - season of natural rubber [99]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Raw Material Cost - Domestic production areas are in the off - season. The raw material prices in high - latitude production areas are rising due to the end of the production season and the competition for raw materials. The price of Thai glue has risen by nearly 10% compared with before the Chinese New Year [106]. 3.4.2 Processing Profit - **Domestic Rubber**: Yunnan and Hainan are in the off - season. The production profit of domestic tires and secondary rubber may remain flat due to weak spot trading [123]. - **Imported Rubber**: The processing profit of Thai smoked sheets is decreasing, while the processing and import profits of standard rubber and mixed rubber are increasing steadily [125]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: According to the ANRPC 2025 December report forecast, the global natural rubber output in December 2025 decreased by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons, and the consumption increased by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons. The output and consumption of different countries showed different trends [129]. - **Domestic Import Situation**: In 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased compared with 2024. The imports of natural rubber and mixed rubber also increased [131]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Main Producing Countries' Total Demand**: China's demand in December 2025 rebounded to the level at the end of 2024, while Vietnam's consumption declined, and the total demand of other overseas main producing countries remained stable [143]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: The start - up rate of downstream tire factories was divided during the holiday. The start - up rate of semi - steel tires was slightly better than expected due to some export orders. The inventory of tires was at a high level, and the export of tires was affected by trade barriers [146]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry was stable, and the replacement demand for tires was affected by the growth of freight volume and the slowdown of fixed - asset investment [154][156]. - **Supporting Demand - Automobile**: The domestic supporting demand may maintain resilience due to policy incentives, but the inventory pressure of the automobile industry is increasing, which will put pressure on the subsequent demand for semi - steel tires [164]. - **Supporting Demand - Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The output of heavy trucks and construction machinery maintained a high growth rate, but the long - term growth of new demand for trucks may be limited, and more demand comes from replacement [167]. - **Overseas Tire Production and Demand**: The tire production in Japan was relatively stable, and the tire shipment index in Thailand increased year - on - year. The demand for tires in the United States and Europe showed different trends, and the trade policies had an impact on tire exports [169][172][173]. - **Other Rubber Products Demand**: The overseas manufacturing industry showed signs of recovery in January 2026, while the domestic manufacturing PMI declined. The start - up rates of other rubber downstream industries were affected by the Spring Festival holiday [181]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the rubber warehouse receipt inventory increased, and the 20 - number rubber warehouse receipt inventory decreased slightly [186]. - **Social Inventory**: As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased by 5.4% month - on - month, and the inventory of dark - colored and light - colored rubber showed different trends [189].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak La Nina phenomenon may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - There are precipitation and temperature issues in various rubber - producing areas around the world. For example, there are low - temperature and less - rain conditions in China's Yunnan and Hainan, which may lead to drought and forest fire risks; some areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries also face different degrees of precipitation and temperature problems that affect rubber production [2][4]. - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics, and different weather factors need to be focused on [215]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Climate Dynamics**: The Nino3.4 index is - 0.5 (- 0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon continues. It may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with over 45% probability of turning into a weak El Nino between June and August. The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole is - 0.63, and the Madden - Julian Oscillation is in the third - stage area with an increasing trend [1]. - **Chinese Producing Areas**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with low precipitation and normal soil humidity. Low - temperature and less - rain conditions lead to thorough leaf - falling of rubber trees, and the risk of powdery mildew spread is low. In Hainan, rainfall is less than the same period, soil humidity is decreasing, and there may be large - scale meteorological drought in spring, with high forest fire risks [2]. - **Foreign Producing Areas**: Thailand is out of the rainy season, with low soil humidity and less rainfall recently. Vietnam has less rain, and the glue output in high - altitude areas is affected by low - temperature at night. Cambodia is at the end of the tapping season with less rain. Myanmar has a risk of drought due to less rain. Laos has less rain and decreasing soil humidity. Indonesia has increased rain disturbances, and Malaysia is in the peak rainy season [4][5]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year - on - year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this - week forecast precipitation, and next - week forecast precipitation [7][9]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is a tropical depression in the south - west Indian Ocean, which may slightly affect the southeastern Indian and Sri Lankan producing areas. Thailand's main producing areas have less rain, and most river water levels are low. Yunnan and Hainan have less precipitation, high forest fire risks, and the weak El Nino from June to August may affect the first - half - year output if there is still less rain in the second quarter [10]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **Chinese Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for Hainan and Yunnan, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [12][16]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [62][64]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [128][135]. - **South Asian Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for India and Sri Lanka [162][164]. - **West African Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for the Cote d'Ivoire producing area [193][194]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia's about 1/5. In terms of output, Thailand accounts for over 30% globally, Indonesia about 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire over 10% [203]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new - leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and prone to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber output depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term output is affected by weather [212][213]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics [215].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of rubber present both support and pressure. The upstream raw material has entered the low - production season, with high inventory and imports. The downstream production declines during the long holiday, and the stock - building is coming to an end. Before the holiday, the fundamental drive of rubber weakens, and macro - sentiment plays a dominant role. The price of Shanghai - listed rubber (RU) is mainly determined by future demand, de - stocking expectations, and valuation, and is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The overseas production areas are approaching the low - production season, and the pre - season rush to buy raw materials provides some support. High inventory and future supply expectations suppress prices. The downstream pre - holiday stock - building is nearly over, and the inventory pressure in various links remains. The future depends on the fulfillment of demand expectations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The upstream of rubber has entered the low - production season, but inventory and imports are high. The downstream production is affected by the holiday, and the stock - building is ending. The fundamental drive of rubber is weakening, and the macro - sentiment dominates. The price of RU is affected by future expectations and macro - sentiment. The overseas pre - low - production - season raw material rush provides support, but high inventory and supply expectations suppress prices. The downstream demand has inventory pressure, and the future demand needs to be verified [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillation range for the main RU contract is 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with the short - term support point at 16,000 yuan/ton. The oscillation range for the main NR contract is 12,500 - 13,500 yuan/ton, and the important support point is 13,000 yuan/ton [20]. - **Trend Judgment**: There are both support and pressure in the range. Before the holiday, the tightening liquidity may put pressure on the rubber trend, and the overall situation may maintain an oscillation [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term unilateral observation is recommended. Pay attention to the downstream resumption of work and the fulfillment of demand expectations after the holiday [21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: It is expected to have large fluctuations. Unilateral trading can be combined with protective options or spread strategies. Deep out - of - the - money options can be sold at high prices [21]. - **Basis Strategy**: The RU basis is at a high level, and the room for further increase may be limited. The valuation of whole milk may continue the seasonal repair trend, while the futures side should focus on macro - sentiment and synthetic rubber trends [22]. - **Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy**: The 5 - 9 spread focuses on the valuation level under low - warehouse receipts. It can refer to the seasonal reverse - spread market. Currently, synthetic rubber is strong, and the 05 contract may remain strong. Hold the reverse - spread position and pay attention to future demand and supply [22]. - **Variety Arbitrage Strategy**: Observation is recommended [24]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range forecast for the rubber RU main contract in the next two weeks is 15,500 - 16,500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 44.10%. For the 20 - number rubber NR main contract, the price range is 12,400 - 13,500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 20.61% and a historical percentile of 68.66% [27]. - **Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short - sell rubber futures (RU2605) to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options (RU2605 - P15500) to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options (RU2605 - C16500) to increase sales profits [28]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low standing inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy far - month rubber futures (NR2604 and subsequent contracts), buy out - of - the - money call options (RU2605 - C16750), and sell put options (RU2605 - P15750) to manage raw material price risks [28]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - China's central bank plans to develop various financial sectors and strengthen financial support in the consumer field [29]. - The US ADP non - farm employment in January was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of interest rate cuts [29]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI entered the expansion range, with strong growth in new orders and output [29]. - China's logistics industry prosperity index remained in the expansion range in January [29]. - China's automobile exports in December 2025 increased significantly [30]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's tire enterprises decreased, but some semi - steel tire enterprises were supported by export orders [30]. - The India - EU free trade agreement was reached, which is beneficial to regional rubber demand [30]. - Shanghai launched a project to purchase second - hand housing for affordable rental housing, which may help stabilize the real estate market [30]. - Some domestic and overseas rubber - producing areas are approaching the end of the production season, and there is a probability of an El Nino event in the third quarter of 2026 [31]. - **Negative Information**: - China's automobile dealer inventory warning index in January was above the boom - bust line [32]. - China's heavy - truck retail sales in January were weak [32]. - The US - Iran nuclear negotiations were controversial, increasing the volatility of energy and chemical products [32]. - The Russia - Ukraine negotiations were pending, which may affect the energy supply pattern [33]. - China's manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in January declined, and economic activities slowed down [33]. - China's natural rubber imports increased in December 2025, and the inventory continued to accumulate seasonally [33]. - The EU's new car registrations in 2025 were still lower than the pre - pandemic level, and it imposed a mandatory import registration on Chinese tires [34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus Points - Monitor the weather in rubber - producing areas, especially the winter phenology and the progress of the end of the production season in high - latitude areas [35]. - Pay attention to the impact of butadiene cost changes on the price of butadiene rubber and the price difference with natural rubber [35]. - Track the changes in port and social inventories, the registration of whole - milk warehouse receipts, and the progress of spot digestion [35]. - Observe the holiday shutdown of downstream tire factories and the resumption of work and orders after the holiday [35]. - In terms of macro - aspects, focus on the overall sentiment of commodities, the US January non - farm employment report and CPI data, and the progress of the US - Iran situation and subsequent US sanction policies [36]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber bulls took profits. Before the holiday, the tightening capital liquidity, the cold spot - market transactions, and the high inventory brought pressure. The price oscillated and declined in a shrinking volume, but there was still support from macro - expectations and the cost side [38]. - **Capital Trends**: Last week, short positions in Shanghai - listed rubber were reduced, and the profit change was small. Short positions in 20 - number rubber were slightly increased, and the profit slightly rebounded [46]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of various rubber products showed different degrees of change last week, with some rising and some falling [49]. - **Delivery Product Price Trends**: The price trends of 20 - number standard rubber delivery products showed certain fluctuations [51]. - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Changes**: The whole - milk basis maintained a regression trend, and the whole - milk - 05 spread showed a positive - spread trend. The price of Vietnamese 3L rubber and RU also showed a positive - spread trend. The basis of some other rubbers also showed corresponding changes [52]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The price of natural rubber fluctuated last week, and the whole - milk inventory decreased during the non - production season, with a relatively strong spot price. The NR inventory accumulation pressure and the import expectation after the first - quarter holiday suppressed the near - month contract price, maintaining a C - shaped structure [63]. - **External Market Quotes**: - **External Market Unilateral Trends**: The settlement prices of Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - number rubber showed certain trends [73]. - **External Market Calendar Spread Structure**: The term structures of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 showed different characteristics [75]. - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and the Japanese RSS3 futures 05 contract decreased, while the spread between NR and the Singapore standard rubber price increased [76]. - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: The macro - environment was warm, driving the recent strong oscillation of rubber. The strengthening of synthetic rubber also drove up the valuation of natural rubber, but the inventory pressure increased the divergence between long and short positions, and the virtual - to - physical ratio was higher than the historical average [81]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - Rubber Spot Spread**: The inventory of dark - colored rubber increased, while the inventory of old whole - milk rubber decreased. The price of whole - milk and Vietnamese light - colored rubber increased, and future attention should be paid to weather changes and post - holiday production and sales [85]. - **Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread**: The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber narrowed. The production of butadiene rubber increased, and the price of synthetic rubber was supported by raw materials, while the natural rubber inventory continued to accumulate seasonally [100]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Domestic rubber - producing areas have stopped production. In high - latitude areas at the end of the production season, the rush to buy raw materials supported the price, and the raw material prices in Indonesia and Malaysia remained high [106]. - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: Yunnan and Hainan have stopped production. Recently, the selling price of rubber blocks was stable, and the gross profit of tire rubber last week was also stable [123]. - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: The profit of Thai smoked sheets was stable last week, while the processing and import profits of Thai standard and Thai mixed rubbers first increased significantly and then decreased [125]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Main - Producing Countries' Production**: According to the ANRPC report, the global natural rubber production in December 2025 decreased by 10.8% to 1.416 million tons, and the consumption increased by 2.9% to 1.307 million tons. The production and consumption of different countries showed different trends in 2025 [127][128]. - **Domestic Import Situation**: In December 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased by 18.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports in 2025 increased by 16.7% year - on - year [130]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Main - Producing Countries' Total Demand**: China's demand rebounded in November. Except for Malaysia and Vietnam, the total demand of other overseas main - producing countries rebounded overall [140]. - **Tire Production and Sales Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the production rhythm of downstream tire factories was divided. The overall tire开工率 decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire开工率 was better than expected due to export orders. The inventory situation of full - steel and semi - steel tires was different, and the tire production and export in December 2025 showed certain characteristics [144]. - **Replacement Demand**: The prosperity of the domestic logistics industry was stable, but the highway logistics freight rate index declined. The overall demand for road transportation increased steadily, but the long - term growth of freight logistics replacement demand may be restricted by the slowdown of fixed - asset investment [149]. - **Matching Demand - Automobiles**: The domestic matching demand for automobiles may maintain resilience under policy incentives, but the inventory pressure is increasing. The export of automobiles is strong, especially the export of new - energy passenger cars and semi - trailers [157]. - **Matching Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The sales of heavy - duty trucks and the output of construction machinery maintained high growth, but the long - term new demand may be restricted by the slowdown of fixed - asset investment. The replacement demand in 2026 may maintain high resilience [160]. - **Overseas Tire Production**: The tire production in Japan was stable overall, and the tire shipment index in Thailand increased year - on - year, but the performance in the second half of the year was slightly lower than the historical average [162]. - **Overseas Tire Demand**: The US automobile sales were weak, but the tire imports increased. The European passenger - car production and sales were stable, and the production of medium - and heavy - duty commercial vehicles rebounded in the fourth quarter. The automobile production and export in Japan and South Korea showed different trends [164][165][167]. - **Demand for Other Rubber Products**: In December 2025, the PMI data of the rubber industry rebounded to the boom range, and the downstream开工率 of rubber products improved. The开工率 of domestic conveyor belts continued to rebound, while the开工率 of rubber hoses decreased slightly in January [170]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: As of February 6, 2025, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 1,140 tons week - on - week, and the 20 - number rubber warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 2,621 tons week - on - week [172]. - **Social Inventory**: As of February 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.72 million tons month - on - month, with different growth rates in bonded and general - trade inventories. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses also changed [174].