投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:地缘局势扑朔迷离，国际油价宽幅波动 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给（中长期） | 中性 | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2026年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,765万桶/日，较2025年上升139万桶/ | | | | 日。(2)OPEC:2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2856.4万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升10.5万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1426.7万桶/日， | | | | 较2025年11月份下降34.3万桶/日。（3）IEA：2025年12月份OPEC国家原油产量为2882万桶/日，较2025年11月份下降34万桶/日；Non-OPEC DoC国 | | | | 家原油产量为1447万桶/日，较2025年11月份上升32万桶/ ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 数据分析:本周EIA数据,原油数据编利多,在冬季风暴"费恩"的影响下,美国原油产量显著回落至 1321.5万桶/日,而表需反而有所提升,整体呈现出阶段性去摩,商业库存较上周去库345.5万桶。而下 游端,族厂本周加功率固备别装置意外停机而有所下滑,下游成品海签体需求周环比大幅提升,但汽油 周度环比下滑,主因上周消费者担心天气恶劣而提前加油而导致甚敏较高所致。 风险提示:俄乌美和谈成果;美国和以色列后续谈判进展 4 3 3 2 | | 0.99 | 93 第一份 | 2026/2/6 | 2026/1/30 | 蒸发 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第71 | CLI | 63.55 | 63.55 | 65.21 | -2.55% | | | CL2 | 63. 38 | 63.36 | 64.74 | -2 13V | | Brent | COL | 68.05 | 68.05 | 70. 69 | -3. 73% | | | CO2 | 67.47 | 67.47 | ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

原油供需宽松抑制价格反弹 一、日度市场总结 库存端 ：2026年2月5日仓单数据显示，中质含硫原油期货仓单报3464000 桶，环比持平；其他如燃料油和石油沥青仓单也维持稳定，表明美国库欣 及商业原油库存、OECD库存无显著变化。 价格走势判断 原油价格预计维持低位震荡格局，短期可能继续下探。原因在于供给端宽 松：OPEC产量下滑被土耳其等新增供给潜力抵消，沙特降价凸显供应过 剩，闲置产能充足削弱地缘风险影响；需求端疲软：壳牌业绩不佳和印尼 生物燃料转型暗示成品油需求不足，炼厂利润承压；库存端稳定但未缓解 过剩压力。供需整体宽松将抑制价格反弹，SC原油受价差走强支撑但上行 空间有限。 1/14 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2026年2月5日，SC原油主力合约价格报463.5元/桶，较 前一日（2026年2月4日）的462.4元/桶小幅走高1.1元，涨幅0.24%，盘中 走势显示从低位反弹。WTI和Brent原油期货价格均维持稳定，分别报64.47 美元/桶和68.95美元/桶，无变化。价差方面，SC-Brent价差为-2.17美元/ 桶，较前一日-2.3美元/桶走强0. ...

流动性方面，油气ETF博时盘中换手2.23%，成交509.57万元。拉长时间看，截至2月4日，油气ETF博时 近1周日均成交3798.95万元。 消息面上，地缘政治因素为标普油气板块波动核心带动因素，叠加供需及产量扰动，板块及原油产品价 格震荡运行。价格方面，2月4日隔夜WTI 3月原油期货收涨3.05%至65.14美元/桶，布伦特4月原油期货 收涨3.16%至69.46美元/桶，上期所原油期货主力合约夜盘收涨3.32%至473.5元/桶。标普全球石油指数2 月2日跌1.80%、3日反弹2.53%。产量端，哈萨克斯坦田吉兹油田复产滞后，1月日均产量仅100-110万桶 （正常180万桶）；美国冬季风暴致上周末原油日产量减少至多200万桶。2026年全球石油供需过剩，预 计供应1.063亿桶/日、需求1.043亿桶/日。 截至2026年2月5日 13:01，中证油气资源指数(931248)下跌2.88%。成分股方面涨跌互现，洲际油气领涨 3.87%，恒基达鑫上涨1.51%，胜通能源上涨1.24%；杰瑞股份领跌9.27%，通源石油下跌4.97%，中曼石 油下跌4.88%。油气ETF博时(561760)下跌3.01 ...

新华财经北京2月4日电（吴郑思）贵金属市场回暖叠加美伊局势不确定性萦绕，国际油价在本周初大幅回落后隔夜强势回升。截至纽约时间周二（2月3日） 14:30，WTI原油结算价报每桶63.21美元，较前一日上涨1.07美元，涨幅1.7%；布伦特原油期价上涨1.03美元，涨幅1.6%，结算价报每桶67.33美元。 与此同时，3日早些时候，英国海事安全企业先锋技术公司及其他一些消息源称，一艘美国油轮当天下午在霍尔木兹海峡无视要求其停船的警告，一度被数 艘武装快艇包围。美军中央司令部发言人3日说，美军当天在阿拉伯海击落伊朗一架无人机，并在当天还护送一艘遭伊方船只逼近的美国油轮。这些消息不 禁令市场开始担忧双方的谈判能否按计划推进，进而成为推动3日国际油价大幅反弹的驱动。 短期利多因素仍在发酵后期过剩担忧不减 值得关注的是，除地缘因素带来的利多以外，1月以来驱动油价反弹的基本面利多因素仍在发挥作用：欧佩克+主要产油国1日决定，将在2026年3月继续暂 停增产；哈萨克斯坦原油生产和出口恢复慢于预期；北美遭遇的冬季暴风损及原油产量并提振取暖油需求；以及美印达成一项贸易协议后可能驱动印度原油 采购转向、令其他地区原油供应紧张的预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand for crude oil is in the off - season. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand situation. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. The cold wave is weakening, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected due to winter storms, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. The global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. Trump has reduced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. The Tianji oilfield in Kazakhstan will gradually resume production, but only half of the production capacity can be restored before February 7. Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, the current cold wave has weakened, and the impact of the next cold wave should be monitored. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 453.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4567 to 31633 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but also raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline has increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year. The weekly production of diesel has increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year. The production of gasoline and diesel has increased month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [4].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices experienced a significant drop, with various factors contributing to the volatility in the market, including geopolitical tensions and supply-demand dynamics [4][5][20]. Market Dynamics - On Monday, oil prices fell sharply, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.14 per barrel, down $3.07 or 4.71%, and Brent crude oil futures at $66.30, down $3.02 or 4.36% [6][22]. - The decline in oil prices was attributed to a combination of easing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, and a rise in global oil inventories as supply concerns diminished [5][21]. Supply and Demand Factors - Recent data indicated a rebound in global oil inventories, with the impact of North American cold weather subsiding and production at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field resuming [5][21]. - The market is expected to remain in a cautious wait-and-see mode as investors anticipate the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, which could further influence oil prices [21]. Recent Developments - OPEC+ has been monitoring compliance with production quotas, with November's production reported at 37.625 million barrels per day, which is 505,000 barrels below target levels [23]. - The European natural gas futures market saw a significant drop of over 12%, attributed to warmer weather forecasts and improved LNG supply, alleviating short-term supply concerns [24][26]. Price Trends - The European natural gas price fell to approximately €34.3 per megawatt-hour, down from a seven-month high of €40 per megawatt-hour [25][29]. - Despite the recent price drops, European gas storage levels remain low at around 41.1%, indicating ongoing supply vulnerabilities [29].

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate continues to rise, trading around 1.3660, supported by a combination of factors including a decline in oil prices and a stronger USD [2] - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely linked to oil prices, as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, making its economy and currency sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices [2] - Recent declines in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which have fallen over 5% in the last four trading days to around $62.00 per barrel, have weakened the support for the Canadian dollar, facilitating the rise of the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and recent statements have bolstered the USD, with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair raising expectations for a potential shift towards a more cautious monetary policy [3] - Fed officials have indicated a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto M. stating that the 3.50%-3.75% policy rate range is neutral, balancing economic growth and inflation pressures [3] - Progress in US fiscal policy, including an agreement in the Senate on government funding, has alleviated risks of a government shutdown, improving market sentiment and further supporting the USD [3]

原油周报 (1.26-1.30) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶65.74美元，周涨7.28%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶69.83美元， 周涨6.71%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至470元/桶，周涨6.36%。美国总统特朗普重申对伊朗的威胁，一支舰队正驶向伊朗，希望伊朗能同美 国达成协议。伊朗方面则表示，邻国领土若被用于针对伊朗的敌对行动，这些邻国将被视为敌对方。此外，俄乌局势方面，周内乌克兰、美国 和俄罗斯代表团在阿布扎比举行三方会谈，与会各方在军事问题上取得一定进展，但在领土问题上仍未达成任何决定。地缘 ...