Market Overview - The US stock indices all closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 0.31%, S&P 500 up 0.58%, and Nasdaq up 0.89% [4][5] - Major tech stocks also saw gains, with the Tech Giants Index rising 0.70% [9] Individual Stock Performance - Notable performers included Honeywell International, which rose 6.81%, and 3M Company, which increased by 2.61% [5] - Tesla increased by 2.28%, Amazon by 1.44%, and Nvidia by 1.04%, leading the tech sector [10][11] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks outperformed the broader market, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.66% and the Wind China Technology Leaders Index up 2.65% [12][13] - Meituan rose 5.01%, Alibaba increased by 3.65%, and Baidu gained 2.95%, leading the Wind China Technology Leaders Index [15][16] Oil Price Surge - International oil prices surged due to geopolitical tensions, with US oil closing up 5.56% at $61.75 per barrel, and Brent crude rising 5.38% to $65.96 per barrel [18][20] - The surge was driven by fears of potential disruptions in Russian oil supply following new sanctions from the US and EU [20][21] Geopolitical Developments - The White House indicated that a meeting between President Trump and President Putin is not entirely out of the question, despite recent tensions [22][23] - Putin commented that the new US sanctions are unfriendly but will not significantly impact the Russian economy, emphasizing the importance of dialogue over confrontation [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it is mainly expected to fluctuate weakly. However, the crude oil price has dropped significantly since October, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may increase price volatility. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and focus on the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1]. - The peak season of crude oil demand is over. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories and the decrease in refined oil inventories exceed expectations, and the overall oil product inventory has increased. US refineries are in the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1]. - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. The EU passed a new round of sanctions against Russia, and plans to raise the import tariff on Russian oil. Russia extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline to the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1]. - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and IEA's monthly report shows that the global oil surplus is intensifying [1]. - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached, geopolitical risks have cooled down. The EU sanctions, the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, and China - US trade uncertainties have worried the market about crude oil demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2512 rose 2.52% to 447.2 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 434.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 452.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 2,276 to 46,980 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, raises the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and adjusts the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80/barrel to $68.64/barrel. It also predicts that the Brent crude oil price will fall to $59/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and remain at $51.43/barrel in 2026 [3]. - OPEC raises the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and keeps the 2026 growth rate at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA lowers the 2025 global oil demand growth rate by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, and raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and 2.4 million barrels per day respectively, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3]. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels (expected 288,000 barrels), gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels (expected 75,000 barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels (expected 294,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's August crude oil production was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its September 2025 production increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, reaching a new record high [4]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, 0.85% higher than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, 3.19% lower than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, 0.19% higher than the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to an 11.48% month - on - month decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5].

Market Overview - On October 21, PTA futures experienced fluctuations, with a general atmosphere in the spot market being average and the spot basis being weak. Transactions for October cargo were made at a discount of 85-90, with price negotiations ranging from 4290 to 4355. November cargo saw transactions at a discount of 80 for early November, 75 for mid-November, and 70 for late November. The mainstream spot basis was at 88 [1] Profitability - As of October 21, the PTA spot processing fee was around 122 CNY/ton, while the processing fees for TA2512 and TA2601 futures were 245 CNY/ton and 267 CNY/ton, respectively [2] Supply and Demand - Supply: As of October 17, PTA operating rates were at 76%, an increase of 0.6%. - Demand: Polyester operating rates remained stable at 91.4%. On October 21, the price of polyester yarn saw localized declines, with production and sales increasing in some areas. Factories were promoting sales, and the situation at the end of the trading day should be monitored. The downstream knitting sector was performing adequately, with some downstream players purchasing raw materials as needed. Currently, POY has some profit, while FDY fine denier remains at a loss. With factory inventories continuing to rise, polyester yarn prices are expected to follow raw material prices downward [3] Market Outlook - With the recovery of some PTA plant operating rates and the imminent commissioning of new facilities, the PTA spot basis is expected to continue weakening. However, as the basis approaches a no-risk arbitrage level and some major PTA suppliers reduce their operating rates, the downward space for the basis is limited. In terms of absolute prices, the weak supply and demand expectations for crude oil limit price drivers, along with fluctuating tariff policies, leading to a short-term outlook of limited upward momentum for PTA, primarily characterized by weak fluctuations. The strategy is to remain observant, focusing on Brent crude oil support around 60 USD/barrel, and to treat TA1-5 rolling reverse spreads accordingly [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, and it is mainly treated as a weak - side oscillation in the medium and long term. However, the recent decline in crude oil prices has increased, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may lead to greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily and pay attention to the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory build - up of US crude oil exceeded expectations, and the de - stocking of refined oil also exceeded expectations. Overall oil product inventories have increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1] - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but it would take a process [1] - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel, but there is no secondary sanction for Russian buyers. The EU spokesman said that the European Commission will propose a plan to increase the import tariff on Russian oil in due course [1] - Due to the increased attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil exports remain at a high level [1] - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached between Palestine and Israel, and Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, reducing geopolitical risks [1] - The EU sanctions plan has been introduced, the consumption peak season has ended, the US non - farm payrolls data is weak, and the uncertainty of China - US trade has worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, the crude oil exports in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.32% to 437.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 431.8 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 440.2 yuan per ton, and an increase in open interest of 559 to 44,704 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3] - IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. It has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3] Inventory and Production Data - On the early morning of October 17, US EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in August was reduced by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, setting a new historical high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year increased slightly [5] - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% week - on - week to 8.455 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared with the same period last year [5] - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% week - on - week to 4.233 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared with the same period last year. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5]

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: October 21, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expected trend for both being weakly volatile today. The decline in crude oil prices and increased Sino-US macro risks contribute to this outlook, while the operating conditions of agricultural film are stable, and industrial inventories are moderately high [4][6] LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices have continued to decline. On the supply - demand side, the operation of agricultural film is stable with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other films is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6920 (+10) [4] Key Factors - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 46, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish. The PE comprehensive inventory is 58.0 million tons (+3.7), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [5] PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, and Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has increased but is still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-0) [6] Key Factors - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 1, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.0%, which is neutral. The PP comprehensive inventory is 67.9 million tons (-0.3), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish. The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] Pros and Cons - Bullish factor: Seasonal demand has increased month - on - month. Bearish factors: Demand is weaker year - on - year, there are many new production launches in the fourth quarter, and there are Sino - US trade risks [7] Market Data LLDPE - Spot delivery product price: 6920, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6874, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 12685, 0 change. PE comprehensive factory inventory: 58.0, 0 change. PE social inventory: 546, 0 change [8] PP - Spot delivery product price: 6550, 0 change. 01 contract price: 6551, 0 change. Warehouse receipts: 14313, 0 change. PP comprehensive factory inventory: 67.9, 0 change. PP social inventory: 349, 0 change [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a significant increase in 2020 and 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a decline in 2021 [13] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been steadily increasing, with relatively large growth rates in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has generally been positive [15]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different sectors such as crude oil asphalt, PTA, MEG, etc. [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 3: Core View - The supply side shows that OPEC+ production is basically within the quota, but there is still room for growth in the future. Non - OPEC+ countries will also contribute a large amount of supply, resulting in significant supply pressure. The demand side sees IEA and EIA slightly raising demand expectations in their monthly reports, but the demand increase is far lower than the supply. The inventory accumulation speed accelerates in the fourth quarter of this year. Overall, both the macro and supply - demand aspects are bearish. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset, and reverse arbitrage can be considered [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - WTI: Opened at $57.03, closed at $57.25, with a high of $57.32, a low of $56.15, a rise of 0.46%, and a trading volume of 35.94 million hands. - Brent: Opened at $60.73, closed at $61.16, with a high of $61.25, a low of $59.99, a rise of 0.61%, and a trading volume of 31.54 million hands. - SC: Opened at 438.6 yuan/barrel, closed at 435.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 441.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 435.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 9.3 million hands [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat crude oil with a bearish mindset and consider reverse arbitrage [6]. Group 5: Industry News - US President Trump said that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil, it will continue to pay "huge" tariffs [7]. - Israeli media reported on October 19 that Israeli senior officials expect the Israeli Air Force to conduct more strikes in the Gaza Strip [7]. - Indian media reported on the 17th that due to increased domestic market demand, India's oil imports from Russia rebounded in the first half of October. The average daily import in the first half of October was about 1.8 million barrels, about 250,000 barrels more than the daily average in September [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and geopolitical factors both point to downward pressure on oil prices. The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. However, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Market Review - Crude oil showed a volatile and weak trend. The SC2512 contract opened at 458 for the week, reached a high of 459, a low of 433, and closed at 435, with a weekly decline of 28 or 6.23% [3] Chapter 2: Price Influence Factor Analysis 2.1 OPEC: OPEC+ Maintains the Stance of Increasing Production - In September, OPEC's daily crude oil production was 28.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 524,000 barrels, with Saudi Arabia's daily production increasing by 248,000 barrels. OPEC+ members' daily crude oil production was 43.05 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 630,000 barrels. The global daily oil supply in September reached 108 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 760,000 barrels, with OPEC+ countries' production increasing by 1 million barrels. It is expected that the global daily oil supply will increase by 3 million barrels this year to 106.1 million barrels per day and by 2.4 million barrels next year. Non - OPEC+ countries' production is expected to increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively in the next two years [5] - On October 1st, the 62nd JMMC meeting was held. Iran, Kuwait, UAE, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Russia updated their compensation production - cut plans from September 2025 to June 2026. From September to December 2025, the planned compensation production cuts are 232,000, 203,000, 266,000, and 303,000 barrels per day respectively. The 63rd JMMC meeting will be held on November 30th. On October 5th, eight voluntarily - production - cutting OPEC+ countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, and the next meeting of these eight countries will be held on November 2nd [6] 2.2 Russia: Gradually Implementing Production Cuts, Pay Attention to the Evolution of the Russia - Ukraine Conflict - In 2024, Russia's crude oil production was 516 million tons (about 9.9 million barrels per day). In 2025, it is expected to be between 515 million and 520 million tons. President Putin said on October 16th that the 2025 production is expected to be 5.1 billion tons, about 1% less than last year, but the overall supply remains at a high level. In August 2025, Russia's crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 barrels per day, and the remaining production capacity was 120,000 barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 barrels per day. Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia has the potential to increase oil production [7] - Russia's crude oil exports are at a high level. As of the four - week period ending on October 12th, the average daily shipment from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels, the highest since June 2023. IEA data shows that in September, Russia's crude oil exports increased by 370,000 barrels per day to 5.1 million barrels per day [7] 2.3 US: Stable Production - As of the week ending on October 10th, the US daily crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels, an increase of 7,000 barrels from the previous week and 136,000 barrels from the same period last year. As of the week ending on October 17th, the number of active oil - drilling rigs in the US was 418, the same as the previous week and 64 less than the same period last year [8] - The EIA estimates that from the third quarter of 2025 to the second quarter of 2026, the average daily global oil inventory build - up will exceed 2 million barrels. It is predicted that the low oil prices at the beginning of 2026 will lead to a decrease in the supply of OPEC+ and some non - OPEC producers, and inventory adjustments will be made later in 2026. The average Brent crude oil price next year is predicted to be $51 per barrel [8] 2.4 American Production Increase May Dominate Future Supply Growth - The IEA expects that the daily crude oil production of non - OPEC+ countries will increase by 1.6 million barrels and 1.2 million barrels respectively this year and next year, with significant increases in the US, Brazil, Canada, Guyana, and Argentina. According to the current production agreement, OPEC+'s daily crude oil production will increase by 1.4 million barrels in 2025 and a further 1.2 million barrels per day next year. The IEA believes that next year's global daily oil supply will be about 4 million barrels higher than demand [14] 2.5 Inventory: Stable - As of July 2025, the OECD commercial inventory was 2.761 billion barrels, an increase of 2.4 million barrels from the previous month. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 66.5 million barrels, 128.5 million barrels less than the average of the past five years, and 208.6 million barrels less than the average from 2015 - 2019 [14] - As of the week ending on October 10th, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 831.53 million barrels, an increase of 4.284 million barrels from the previous week. The US commercial crude oil inventory was 423.785 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels from the previous week. The US gasoline inventory was 218.826 million barrels, a decrease of 268,000 barrels from the previous week. API data shows that as of the week ending on October 10th, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the gasoline inventory increased by 2.99 million barrels, and the distillate inventory decreased by 4.79 million barrels [15] 2.6 Consumption: Marginally Weak Demand - OPEC estimates that the global daily oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels this year and 1.38 million barrels next year. The global economic growth expectations for 2025 and 2026 are maintained at 3% and 3.1% respectively [21] - The IEA estimates that in the third quarter of 2025, the global daily oil demand increased by 750,000 barrels year - on - year due to the recovery of demand in the petrochemical raw material industry, recovering from the 420,000 - barrel - per - day level in the second quarter affected by tariffs. However, in the remaining part of 2025 and 2026, the global daily oil consumption will remain low, with an expected annual increase of about 700,000 barrels per day, far lower than the historical average due to the more severe macro - economic environment and the electrification trend in the transportation sector [21] - The US refinery's crude oil processing volume is 15.13 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17 million barrels per day, and the refinery's operating rate is 85.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [21] 2.7 Refined Oil Processing Fees Strengthen Slightly - The average refining profit of Shandong local refineries this period is 225.77 yuan per ton, a decrease of 23.42 yuan per ton from the previous period. The average refining profit of major refineries this period is 547.82 yuan per ton, a decrease of 71.31 yuan per ton from the previous period [23] 2.8 Refinery Operating Rates at a Low Level - As of the week ending on October 9th, 2025, the US refinery's crude oil processing volume was 16.476 million barrels per day, an increase of 52,000 barrels per day from the previous week, and the refinery's operating rate was 93.00%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous week [26] - This week, the average operating load of major domestic refineries in China is 81.23%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week. The average operating load of the atmospheric and vacuum distillation units of Shandong local refineries is 50.28%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week [26] Chapter 3: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - The supply side shows that OPEC+ is continuing to increase oil production, Russian supply remains at a high level, and US shale oil production is also at a relatively high level. The demand side indicates that the global demand growth rate is slowing down, and the international energy market may experience an oversupply situation in 2026. Geopolitically, the first - stage cease - fire agreement between Palestine and Israel has been reached, and there are discussions about ending the Ukraine conflict. Overall, both supply and geopolitical factors point to downward pressure on oil prices. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is crucial. If more consensus can be reached, market risk - aversion sentiment will cool down, and oil prices may get short - term support [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment rating for key companies within the sector [3][17]. Core Insights - The IEA has raised its crude oil production forecast, while OPEC's production significantly increased in September, leading to an anticipated oversupply in the market [4][5]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a decline in oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $61.29 per barrel, a decrease of 2.30% week-over-week [20]. - The refining sector shows mixed results, with overseas refined oil crack spreads declining, while olefin price spreads vary [4][17]. - The polyester sector is expected to see a recovery in profitability as supply and demand improve, with a focus on leading companies in the industry [17]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices fell to $61.29 per barrel, down 2.30% from the previous week, while WTI prices also decreased [20]. - As of October 10, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose to 424 million barrels, an increase of 3.524 million barrels week-over-week [22]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. remained stable at 548, with a year-over-year decrease of 37 rigs [35]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products decreased to $19.58 per barrel, down $0.47 from the previous week [4]. - The price spread for gasoline in the U.S. increased slightly to $17.19 per barrel, while olefin price spreads showed mixed trends [4][17]. Polyester Sector - PTA prices have declined, with the average price in East China at 4407.5 RMB per ton, down 3.41% week-over-week [4]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the polyester industry as new capacities come online and demand recovers [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, as well as refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Sinopec [17]. - It also highlights the potential for improved profitability in the oil and gas sector, suggesting investments in companies with high dividend yields like PetroChina and CNOOC [17].

Report Title - Crude Oil Weekly Report 2025/10/18 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although current high - frequency macro factors show extreme bearishness, the fundamental and valuation of crude oil itself are overly undervalued. Geopolitical factors are not completely gone, and the current price is approaching the break - even line of North American heavy and light crude oils (WCS & WTI), so there's no need to be overly pessimistic about oil prices. Three high - frequency signals are awaited to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil: 1. Speculative trading returns to activity. 2. North American production cuts similar to previous instances when the break - even line was reached. 3. Middle - East actions to cut exports and support prices similar to previous ones [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment & Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: Crude oil declined continuously this week. Amid uncertainties in macro - trade and expectations of geopolitical easing from US - Russia negotiations, the US once claimed that Japan and India would stop buying Russian oil, but all parties were vague due to the economic benefits of Russian oil, thus failing to provide geopolitical premium for crude oil [16]. - **Supply - Demand Changes**: OPEC had a "qualitative meeting" for the second - round production increase, maintaining a principled increase of 137,000 barrels per day. US shale oil production increased slightly before, and refinery operations maintained a seasonal decline but are about to enter a small demand peak season. The crack spread of refined oil declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil itself was stronger than the performance of the unit price [16]. - **Macro - Politics**: At the macro level, after the US unilaterally created trade conflicts, US President Trump said that Indian Prime Minister Modi had promised to stop buying oil from Russia and would then try to get China to do the same. Multiple Western countries announced the resumption of sanctions on Iran. The US and Russia had a new round of calls, and Russia agreed to a peace talk proposed by the US. Ukraine faced an energy crisis, and the UK imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies and shadow tankers. - **Viewpoint Summary**: Wait for three high - frequency signals to meet the conditions for going long on crude oil [16]. 2. Macro & Geopolitical - **Short - Term High - Frequency Macro Indicators**: Include the US ISM manufacturing PMI, the Citigroup G10 economic surprise index, the US 10 - year inflation expectation, and the US long - short - term spread, which are all related to WTI oil prices [38]. - **Medium - Term Macro Forecast Indicators**: Such as the euro - zone investment confidence index, the US investment confidence index, the US GDP growth rate forecast, and the global major countries' GDP growth rate forecast [41]. - **Geopolitical Indicators**: The Middle - East geopolitical risk index and the high - frequency export statistics of sensitive oil countries (Iran, Libya, Venezuela, and Russia) are related to WTI oil prices [44]. 3. Oil Product Spreads - **Forward Curve**: Analyze the WTI crude oil forward curve, the near - far structure of various crude oils, the WTI crude oil M1/M4 monthly spread, and the WTI crude oil M1 price [49]. - **Inter - regional Spreads**: Include Brent/WTI, Brent/Dubai, INE/WTI, and MRBN/WTI spreads [52]. - **Product Spreads**: Analyze the LGO diesel forward curve, the near - far structure of refined oil products, and the RB/HO and LGO/RB spreads [59]. - **Crack Spreads**: Cover the crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, high - sulfur fuel oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore, Europe, and the US [67]. 4. Crude Oil Supply - **Supply: OPEC & OPEC+** - **OPEC Meeting Results**: OPEC and OPEC+ have had a series of production - related decisions since 2023, including production cuts, extensions of production cuts, and production increases [80]. - **OPEC & OPEC+ Situation Summary**: Include the crude oil production and quota of OPEC 9 countries, OPEC idle crude oil capacity, OPEC & OPEC+ unplanned shutdown capacity, and the crude oil production and quota of OPEC+ 19 countries [81]. - **OPEC 12 - Country Supply**: Provide the crude oil production and export volume dynamic forecasts of OPEC 12 member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, etc. [89]. - **OPEC+ Major Member Supply**: Include the dynamic forecasts of crude oil export volumes of Ecuador, Brazil, Mexico, and Russia [110]. - **Supply: US** - **US Policies**: The US Treasury announced sanctions on Iran, and there are various statements and policies from US President Trump regarding oil prices, sanctions, and international trade [115]. - **US Supply: Oil Wells & Rigs**: Not detailed in the provided content [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak. It is recommended to mainly treat it as a weak and volatile market, and pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade war [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will exacerbate the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2nd [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories has exceeded expectations, the decrease in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1]. - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but this would take a process [1]. - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. The EU spokesperson said that the European Commission would propose a plan to increase the tariff on Russian oil imports [1]. - Due to Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia would extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil export volume remains high [1]. - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1]. - Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, and the geopolitical risk has cooled down. The United States, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement in Gaza to end the war [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 2.38% to 435.0 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 433.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 445.6 yuan per ton. The trading volume increased by 4,638 to 40,343 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, raises the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and raises the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel. It also expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintains the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3]. - OPEC raises the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA lowers the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, raises the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day, and raises the global oil supply growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - On the morning of October 17, EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10 in the US, crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was adjusted down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE [4]. - US crude oil production increased by 124,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day in the week of October 3, and is currently 200 barrels per day lower than the historical high set in early December last year, but it is the highest since the week of December 6, 2024 [4]. Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.85% compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year has slightly increased [5]. - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.19% compared with the same period last year [5]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.19% compared with the same period last year [5]. - The week - on - week decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [7].