| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给过剩压力上升，油价趋势向下。EIA 最新数据显示，美国商业原油和 | | 原油 | | 成品油库存上升，SPR 累库量增快，消费旺季结束，需求端支撑减弱；供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需方面，9 月 7 日，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡 | | | | 点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气上方承压。成本端原油需求下降供给增加，供给过剩 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 压力上升，仍有下探空间；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平； | | ★ | | PDH 开工率环比下降，但需求尚可，开工率超过 70%；供给端和库存变化 | | | | 不大，偏中性。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 仓单大幅增加，产业套保施压，盘面增仓破位下跌。期现齐跌，基差小幅 | | L | | 走强。基本面短期供需矛盾并不突出，但对后续市场偏悲观，上行驱动不 | | | 空头延续 | 足。本周产量下 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 11th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Coking coal, industrial silicon, and red dates rose over 2%, while polysilicon, coke, pulp, apples, lithium carbonate, and soda ash rose over 1%. The container shipping index (European line) dropped over 5%, and 20 - rubber and iron ore fell nearly 1% [6]. - Stock index futures generally rose, with the CSI 300 futures (IF) up 2.64%, the SSE 50 futures (IH) up 1.56%, the CSI 500 futures (IC) up 3.44%, and the CSI 1000 futures (IM) up 2.94%. Treasury bond futures also had mixed results, with the 2 - year (TS) up 0.06%, the 5 - year (TF) up 0.14%, the 10 - year (T) up 0.07%, and the 30 - year (TL) down 0.11% [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:30 on September 11th, the CSI 300 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital inflows of 1.584 billion, 1.533 billion, and 0.68 billion respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai gold 2510, CSI 1000 2509, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.252 billion, 0.605 billion, and 0.376 billion respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - The US August PPI was lower than expected. China's copper ore imports increased by 7.4% year - on - year in August. Refining fees are falling, and 5 smelters plan to have maintenance in September, which may lead to a decline in domestic electrolytic copper production. Imported copper will affect the domestic market. Demand is weak, and the market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [9]. Crude Oil - The seasonal travel peak is over, and US oil inventories are increasing. OPEC + will adjust production in October, which may increase pressure in Q4. Saudi Aramco cut prices. The market should watch the progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and India's oil purchases. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - to - long - term and close short positions in the short - term [10][11]. Asphalt - Supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak due to factors like weather and capital. OPEC +'s planned production increase will weaken cost support. It is recommended to close short positions and expect a sideways movement [12][13]. PP - Downstream开工率 is rising, and new capacity has been put into operation. With the improvement of the weather, the downstream is entering the peak season. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [14]. Plastic - The开工率 is stable, and downstream demand, especially in the agricultural film sector, is increasing. New capacity has been added. The market is expected to be volatile with limited downside [15][16]. PVC - Supply is increasing, and downstream demand is still weak. Exports are expected to decline. Inventory is high, and the real estate market is still adjusting. The market is expected to decline with volatility [17]. Urea - The market is weak with high inventory and low demand. However, the price is at a low level, and there may be a technical rebound [18][19].

【冠通研究】 原油：原油震荡上行 制作日期：2025年9月10日 【策略分析】 空单部分止盈离场 原油处于季节性出行旺季尾声，目前EIA数据显示原油超预期累库，汽油去库幅度超预期，整体 油品库存转而增加，美国炼厂开工率小幅回落0.3个百分点，但仍然较高。EIA和IEA均上调全球石油 过剩幅度。9月7日，OPEC+正式发表声明，鉴于全球经济前景稳定、市场基本面健康（反映在较低的 原油库存水平上），八国决定将自2023年4月宣布的每日165万桶额外自愿减产中，实施每日13.7万桶 的产量调整，该调整将于2025年10月起实施。此165万桶/日的产量可根据市场形势变化部分或全部恢 复，且将以循序渐进方式进行。八个欧佩克+国家将于10月5日举行下次会议，这将加剧四季度的原 油压力。沙特阿美将旗舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油10月份销往亚洲的发货价格下调1美元/桶。美国对印 度商品额外征收25%的关税，在8月27日生效，印度若放弃采购俄罗斯原油，将导致全球原油贸易流 变动，造成对中东原油现货的抢购。目前俄罗斯原油贴水扩大后，印度继续进口俄罗斯原油，印度 和美国仍在继续谈判。关注后续俄乌停火协议谈判进展及印度对于俄罗斯原油的采购情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. EIA data shows unexpected crude oil inventory build - up and significant gasoline inventory draw - down, with an overall increase in oil product inventories. The US refinery utilization rate has slightly declined. OPEC + is accelerating production increases, and there are signs of further production hikes. The supply - demand balance of crude oil is expected to weaken, so shorting on rallies is advised [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. OPEC + 8 voluntary - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and may consider further production increases. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The end of the consumption peak season and potential sanctions on Russia also affect the market. Attention should be paid to OPEC + meetings and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.03% to 482.0 yuan/ton, with a low of 478.5 yuan/ton and a high of 482.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2399 to 25,244 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global oil inventory increases to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises the 2026 rate to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates and lowers the 2025 demand growth rate [3]. - On September 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.681 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels [3]. - OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production in the week of August 29 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.282 million barrels per day, up 3.89% year - on - year. However, weekly gasoline and diesel demand decreased, leading to a 4.45% week - on - week decrease in the weekly supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The crude oil market is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. Although the EIA data shows a decrease in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and high refinery operating rates, OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The consumption peak is about to end, and the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. Therefore, it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Summary by Related Directory Strategy Analysis - Recommend shorting on rallies. Despite short - term price rebounds due to positive US EIA data, market bets on Fed rate cuts in September, and geopolitical conflicts, the subsequent consumption peak will end, and OPEC+ may further increase production. There are also potential sanctions on Russian oil. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and the situation of sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 2.20% to 481.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 479.9 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 487.7 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 1340 to 27643 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by more than 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has adjusted the global oil supply and demand growth rate forecasts for 2025 and 2026. The EIA data on August 27 showed a decrease in US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories [3]. - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day in the week of August 22. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel increased, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 0.50% [4][6].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **global oil industry**, focusing on the dynamics of **OPEC+**, **U.S. shale oil**, and **refining capacity** [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Core Insights and Arguments - **OPEC+ Production and Compliance**: OPEC+ has increased its voluntary production cuts, with compliance rates improving. However, actual production has often fallen below target levels in recent years [3][5]. - **Impact of Price Wars**: Saudi Arabia has engaged in two significant price wars, the first due to the U.S. shale boom and the second following a breakdown in agreements with Russia. Both resulted in financial strain for Saudi Arabia without achieving substantial market share gains [6][7]. - **U.S. Shale Revolution**: The U.S. has transitioned from a net importer to an exporter of oil due to the shale revolution, leading to global oversupply and price declines. U.S. shale companies' capital expenditures (CAPEX) are closely tied to oil prices, with a notable increase in domestic CAPEX share [7][10]. - **Resource Pressure on U.S. Shale Companies**: The lifespan of reserves for U.S. shale companies has decreased, prompting potential strategies such as reducing output or increasing CAPEX to address resource pressures [11]. - **Global Refining Trends**: There is a shift in global refining product consumption towards lighter components, with the Asia-Pacific region becoming the primary consumer, accounting for nearly 40% of global oil consumption [1][4][14]. - **Refinery Capacity and Utilization**: Global refining capacity is currently in excess, with a decline in utilization rates. China's rapid expansion in refining capacity is also facing oversupply issues [2][18]. Additional Important Insights - **OPEC+ Internal Dynamics**: Russia's strategy within OPEC+ has involved circumventing production cuts by adjusting baseline production levels, leading to internal conflicts within the organization [8]. - **Future Supply and Demand Outlook**: Projections indicate that by 2025-2026, supply from U.S. shale, Canadian pipelines, and new projects in Brazil and Kazakhstan will exceed demand growth, putting downward pressure on oil prices [2][19]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Despite a recent uptick in CAPEX among U.S. shale companies, overall levels remain lower than during the peak of the shale revolution, indicating a cautious approach to investment [10][12]. - **Consumer Behavior Changes**: In the U.S., gasoline and diesel remain dominant, while in China, the consumption of lighter components like liquefied petroleum gas is increasing, reflecting a shift in energy consumption patterns [17]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the global oil industry.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. Although the EIA data shows a continued reduction in US crude oil and gasoline inventories and high refinery operating rates, OPEC+ will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of the global oil surplus, which will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end, and the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken, so it is advisable to short on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The end of the seasonal travel peak season, OPEC+ production increase, possible price cuts by Saudi Arabia, and the increase in the global oil surplus forecast will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. Although the price has rebounded due to some factors, the supply - demand situation will weaken later [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 rose 0.69% to 4,932 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 4,864 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 4,960 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,177 to 28,983 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory increase to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an increase of 800,000 barrels per day from last month's forecast. EIA has lowered the average Brent crude oil price for 2025 from $68.89 per barrel to $67.22 per barrel and for 2026 from $58.48 per barrel to $51.43 per barrel. OPEC maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises it for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the global oil supply growth rate for 2025 by 370,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day and for 2026 by 620,000 barrels per day to 1.9 million barrels per day, and lowers the global crude oil demand growth rate for 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day to 680,000 barrels per day. As of the week of August 22, US crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.236 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.786 million barrels [3] Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's June crude oil production was adjusted down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production increased by 57,000 barrels per day to 13.439 million barrels per day in the week of August 22. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.15 million barrels per day, with gasoline and diesel demand both increasing month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 0.50% month - on - month [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and inventories are expected to continue the destocking trend. The peak season for greenhouse films is approaching, and packaging film orders are also supported, with the demand side gradually improving. In the medium - long term, the planned restart of some devices and the expected commissioning of ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant in September will increase the industry's supply pressure. The global crude oil supply - demand is weak, and although the short - term geopolitical deterioration in the Middle East still supports oil prices to some extent, it has an impact on costs. Technically, L2601 should pay attention to the support around 7,200 and the pressure around 7,300 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 7,247 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 7,240 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 7,185 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan. The trading volume was 212,912 lots, down 11,546 lots; the open interest was 490,459 lots, up 9,091 lots. The 9 - 1 spread was - 62, down 12. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 333,381 lots, up 7,130 lots; the short positions were 360,509 lots, up 5,936 lots; the net long positions were - 27,128 lots, up 1,194 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China was 7,266.96 yuan/ton, down 11.74 yuan; in East China was 7,340.48 yuan/ton, down 7.38 yuan. The basis was 14.96, up 6.26 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore was 64.94 US dollars/barrel, up 0.47 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 600.5 US dollars/ton, up 4.25 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia was 836 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Northeast Asia was 841 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national PE petrochemical operating rate was 78.68%, down 0.04 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of polyethylene packaging film was 49.56%, down 0.29 percentage points; of pipes was 30.17%, down 0.5 percentage points; of agricultural films was 17.46%, up 2.93 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 5.89%, up 0.04 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.51%, up 0.04 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 10.38%, up 0.79 percentage points; of at - the - money call options was 10.37%, up 0.79 percentage points [2] Industry News - From August 22nd to 28th, China's total polyethylene production was 617,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 78.72%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points from the previous period. The average operating rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.3% from the previous period. As of September 3rd, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 450,800 tons, a 5.57% increase from the previous period; as of August 29th, the sample inventory of polyethylene social warehouses was 560,500 tons, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period [2]

Core Insights - In August 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $67.3 per barrel, a decrease of $2.1 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $64.0 per barrel, down $3.1 per barrel month-on-month [1] - Oil prices initially rose significantly at the end of July but began to decline in early August as geopolitical tensions eased [1] - Mid-August saw support for oil prices due to concerns over international relations despite no agreements reached in US-Russia talks [1] - Late August was marked by a dovish statement from the Federal Reserve Chairman, which raised expectations for a rate cut in September, positively impacting oil demand outlook [1] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced an acceleration of production increase by 547,000 barrels per day for September [1] - The 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in December 2024 decided to extend collective production cuts of 2 million barrels per day and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026 [1] - OPEC+ has significantly increased production in May, June, and July, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day, three times the original plan, and announced further increases for August and September [1] Demand Side Analysis - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global crude oil demand by 680,000 to 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025, and by 700,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [2] - China's refining industry faces challenges due to aging capacity and potential impacts on independent refineries, leading to an expected optimization of supply-side dynamics [2] - Despite uncertainties in the global environment, the expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is projected to be between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be between $60 and $70 per barrel [2] Related Companies - Key recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [3]

Core Viewpoint - In August 2025, Brent crude oil futures averaged $67.3 per barrel, down $2.1 from the previous month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $64.0 per barrel, down $3.1 from the previous month. Oil prices declined in early August following a significant rise at the end of July due to easing geopolitical tensions. Mid-August saw support for oil prices as concerns about international relations grew after U.S. President Trump's push for talks among Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine did not yield agreements. By late August, dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the global central bank conference raised expectations for a rate cut in September, boosting the outlook for oil demand and leading to some recovery in oil prices [2]. Supply Side - OPEC+ announced an accelerated production increase of 547,000 barrels per day for September. The 38th OPEC+ ministerial meeting in December 2024 decided to extend collective production cuts of 2 million barrels per day and voluntary cuts of 1.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2026. Additionally, a voluntary cut plan of 2.2 million barrels per day was extended until the end of March 2025. OPEC+ has significantly increased production in May, June, and July, with increases of 411,000 barrels per day, three times the original plan, and announced a further increase of 548,000 barrels per day for August, four times the original plan. On August 3, OPEC+ announced a substantial increase in oil production targets for September by 547,000 barrels per day, completing their production increase target a year ahead of schedule [3]. Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand of 680,000 to 1.29 million barrels per day in 2025, and an increase of 700,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026. According to the latest reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 105.14, 103.66, and 103.72 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of 129, 68, and 98 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024. For 2026, demand is projected at 106.52, 104.38, and 104.91 million barrels per day, with increases of 138, 70, and 119 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025. The refining industry in China is facing challenges due to aging capacity, and the petrochemical sector is undergoing capacity assessments, which may significantly impact independent refineries. The overall supply-side is expected to improve due to clear signals against "involution" policies [4]. Price Outlook - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2025 is between $65 and $75 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is expected to range between $60 and $70 per barrel. This outlook considers the high cost of oil production for OPEC+ and the elevated costs associated with new shale oil wells in the U.S. [5]. Related Companies - Key recommendations include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [6].