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国泰君安期货所长早读-20250729
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:08
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as Sino - US economic and trade talks, policy changes, and geopolitical events. Different commodities show various trends, including wide - range oscillations, declines, and rebounds [6][11][12]. - For specific commodities, glass may experience a resistive decline, and the adjustment may not end; carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the actual reduction and suspension of production in mines; gold is oscillating and falling, while silver is breaking through and rising, etc. [6][8][9][12] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 International and Domestic News - Sino - US economic and trade talks began in Stockholm, Sweden. China hopes to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and cooperation [6]. - China introduced a child - rearing subsidy policy, providing 3,600 yuan per child per year for infants under 3 years old [18]. - Trump shortened the deadline for reaching an agreement with Russia, causing crude oil prices to rise nearly 3% during intraday trading [19]. - The US Treasury's borrowing forecast for the third quarter exceeded one trillion, an 82% increase, and the auction of 5 - year US Treasury bonds was unexpectedly weak [21]. - Chile expects to obtain a tariff exemption from Trump, causing copper prices in New York to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to generally decline [21]. - Tesla placed a $16.5 billion chip order with Samsung [21]. 3.2 Commodity Research 3.2.1 Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is oscillating and falling, and silver is breaking through and rising. The trend intensity of gold is - 1, and that of silver is 0 [12][15][20]. - **Copper**: The rise of the US dollar exerts pressure on copper prices, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][22][24]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is oscillating and weakening, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][25][27]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is oscillating due to the lack of a clear driving force, and the trend intensity is 0 [12][28][29]. - **Tin**: Tin is oscillating within a range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [12][31][34]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is oscillating at a high level, alumina's sentiment is declining, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [12][35][37]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The direction of nickel is determined by macro - expectations, and its fundamentals limit its elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - sentiment, and its real - world situation needs to be repaired. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [12][38][42]. - **Carbonated Lithium**: Carbonated lithium is in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the reduction and suspension of production in Jiangxi mines. The trend intensity is 0 [9][12][43]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to today's sentiment changes, and polysilicon should focus on today's market information. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [12][47][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, iron ore is oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 0 [12][51]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil are affected by the sector's market resonance and are oscillating weakly. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 0 [12][54][57]. - **Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are in a weak oscillation due to the game between funds and reality. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon are both 0 [12][58][60]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke and coking coal are in a wide - range oscillation as sentiment is realized. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [12][61][64]. - **Steam Coal**: The daily consumption of steam coal is recovering, and it is oscillating and stabilizing. The trend intensity is 0 [12][66][69]. 3.2.3 Others - **Glass**: Short - term short - chasing for glass needs to be cautious, and the decline adjustment has not ended. It may experience a resistive decline in the later stage [6][8]. - **Log**: Logs are oscillating repeatedly [70].
股指周报:主线拉动此起彼伏,关注下周重磅变量-20250725
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term attitude towards the market is cautiously optimistic [1][11] Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the stock index hit a new high. Affected by the Yaxia Power Station and Hainan Free Trade Port's full - customs - closure policy, upstream resource and infrastructure - related industries, as well as the pan - consumption sector, drove the stock market up. The trading volume of the two markets reached about 1.9 trillion yuan, and the proportion of margin trading volume in A - share trading volume increased [1][2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the stock market needs a virtuous cycle of supply and demand to support a bull market. Short - term information - driven optimism and volume cooperation do not guarantee sustainable structural upward movement [6] - At the end of the month, the stock market will be affected by two major events: the Sino - US economic and trade talks and the July Politburo meeting. The market expects positive results, but there are risks of short - term index correction [7] - After the correction, the market may still be driven by optimism. If the information does not meet expectations and the trading volume drops, risk management is needed [1][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Abstract - This week, the stock index hit a new high. Driven by positive factors such as the Yaxia Power Station and Hainan Free Trade Port's full - customs - closure policy, different main lines in the stock market went up, and the trading volume of the two markets reached about 1.9 trillion yuan. After the correction, the market may still be driven by optimism, but attention should be paid to the results of the Sino - US talks and the July Politburo meeting [1] 2. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The stock index hit a new high this week. The Yaxia Power Station and Hainan Free Trade Port's full - customs - closure policy drove related industries up, and the trading volume and margin trading proportion increased [2] - The short - term upward trend of the market driven by information may not be sustainable. In the medium - to - long - term, the stock market needs supply - demand coordination. The market will be affected by the Sino - US talks and the July Politburo meeting, and there are risks of short - term index correction [6][7] - The short - term attitude towards the market is cautiously optimistic. If the information does not meet expectations and the trading volume drops, risk management is needed. The strategy is mainly to hold positions and wait and see [11][12] 3. Weekly Fun Chart - The RMB exchange rate fluctuated this week, and the short - term exchange - rate impact weakened [13] - The market's optimistic sentiment gradually cooled down as the futures index position PCR first rose and then fell [15] - This week, small - cap futures indexes were relatively strong. Although the information drove up the upstream resource industries, the anti - deflation narrative heated up, and funds mainly flowed into small - cap stocks [18]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250722
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 01:53
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].
国泰君安期货LLDPE:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 02:52
Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment rating for the LLDPE industry is "interval shock" [1] Core View - In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in an interval shock market. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures: The closing price of L2509 yesterday was 7216, with a daily increase of 0.10%. The trading volume was 262,918, and the open interest decreased by 8562 [1] - Basis and Spread: The basis of the 09 contract was - 136 yesterday, and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 27 [1] - Spot Prices: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080 yuan/ton, 7150 yuan/ton, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively yesterday [1] 2. Spot News - The market price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated, then declined in the afternoon. The market atmosphere was average, and downstream demand was limited [1] 3. Market Condition Analysis - Macro: Domestically, the overall commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while externally, there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. Plastics are in an interval shock market [2] - Supply: In July, the maintenance volume will be less than that in June. The new production capacity of domestic PE devices in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 78.68%, an increase of 0.89 percentage points [2] - Demand: The downstream of polyethylene is in the off - season. Terminal orders are weak, and enterprises are cautious in stocking. The overall start - up rate of the shed film industry is low, and the procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high [3] 4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]
PVC:短期偏强,上方仍有压力
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:58
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC trend strength is 1, indicating a "neutral" outlook [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, domestic macro is affected by anti - involution, with overall commodity sentiment being strong, but PVC is in a range - bound market temporarily due to high - yield, high - inventory structure and external risks [1][2] - In the future, the market will continue to short the chlor - alkali profit as the high - yield and high - inventory situation of PVC is difficult to ease [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - 09 contract futures price is 4937, East China spot price is 4840, basis is - 97, and 9 - 1 month spread is - 119 [1] Spot News - The domestic PVC spot market is in a weak and volatile state. Supply has steadily increased this week, it's the off - season for demand, and industry inventory has continued to grow. The spot price is under pressure, with the transaction price in East China for calcium carbide type five at 4800 - 4920 yuan/ton and ethylene type at 4850 - 5100 yuan/ton [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macro: The anti - involution sentiment is strong, especially in the petrochemical and chemical industries. But the impact on PVC may be limited as most PVC devices have continuous maintenance and upgrades [1][2] - Fundamentals: Northwest chlor - alkali integrated devices still have profits. In the second half of the year, there is insufficient drive for supply - side production cuts, and the high - yield and high - inventory structure is difficult to ease [1][2] - High - yield Structure: PVC maintenance volume is lower than in 2023, and the high - yield pattern continues. Chlor - alkali cost has declined, and the caustic soda demand in 2025 supports high profits. There will be about 110 million tons of new capacity put into production from July to August [1][2] - High - inventory Pressure: In 2025, the PVC export market faces greater competition. Exports are affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the sustainability of exports is uncertain. Domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is weak, and enterprises have low inventory - building willingness [2][4]
股指期货:总量缺利空,结构撑风偏
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 01:10
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continued to rise last week, with the growth style leading. The core driver of the rise lies in the lack of negative disturbances, keeping the market risk appetite on the bullish side, and the structural market continued [1]. - In the short - term, A - share risk appetite is positive. Without significant negative factors, the stock index will show a volatile and strong pattern. In the medium - term, the economic outlook is moderately recovering, the confidence in the capital market is improving, and external geopolitical disturbances are not likely to cause a long - term negative trend, maintaining a bullish market pattern [1][2]. - Attention should be paid to the formulation and implementation of anti - involution and anti - deflation policies, as well as the expected Fed policies [3]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review and Outlook - **Global Index Performance**: Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.59%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.51%. In the European market, the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.57%, the German DAX rose 0.14%, and the French CAC40 fell 0.08%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.63%, and the Hang Seng Index rose 2.84% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: All major domestic indices rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%. Since 2025, various major indices have also shown an upward trend [8]. - **Industry Performance**: In the spot market, most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. The communication, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors were among the top gainers, while the media, real estate, and public utilities sectors were among the top losers [1][10]. - **Index Futures Performance**: Among the index futures main contracts last week, IM had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume of index futures rebounded, while the open interest declined [12][15]. - **Index Valuation**: As of July 18, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 15.38 times, that of the CSI 300 Index was 13.38 times, and that of the SSE 50 Index was 11.38 times [19]. - **Market Capital Flow**: The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. The capital interest rate price rebounded last week, and the central bank had a net injection [22]. Strategy Suggestions - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set the stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach. The expected core operating ranges for the main contracts of IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 are 3932 - 4135 points, 2699 - 2824 points, 5872 - 6266 points, and 6263 - 6685 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Cautiously participate in the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5].
烧碱:需求支撑强,旺季预期仍在
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 02:00
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, caustic soda is in the off - season for demand, with insufficient price increase momentum, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for peak - season demand in the future, so it is advisable to participate in the 10 - 1 positive spread of the monthly difference [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2484, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 840, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2625, and the basis is 141 [1] Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the market price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. The high - price sales of low - concentration caustic soda have slowed down, and the sales performance of each factory varies, with inventory increasing or decreasing [2] Market Condition Analysis - Macroeconomically, in the short term, the overall sentiment of domestic commodities is strong due to the anti - involution effect, while externally, attention should be paid to the risk that the trade war in August may exceed expectations. In the context of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, caustic soda is currently in a volatile market [3] - From a fundamental perspective, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China. The new production capacity of caustic soda from July to August may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure will gradually increase. However, manufacturers have over - sold in exports, and the pressure of new production capacity is basically digested by exports [3] - On the demand side, it is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, with weak support. The inventory of caustic soda in alumina is neutral, and the export direction has strong support, with a strong willingness to replenish inventory at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the range of trend intensity values being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [4][5]
国泰君安期货-LLDPE:区间震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 01:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for LLDPE is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, due to the influence of anti - involution in China, the overall commodity sentiment is strong, but there is a risk that the trade war may exceed expectations in August. Under the background of anti - inflation in the US and anti - deflation in China, plastics are in a range - bound market for now. The fundamentals of polyethylene have not improved significantly, with increasing supply pressure and weak demand support, so the later trend pressure is still large [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The closing price of L2509 futures yesterday was 7215, with a daily change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 181,546 and the open interest decreased by 2617. The 09 - contract basis was - 135 (compared to - 114 the previous day), and the 09 - 01 contract spread was - 20 (compared to - 11 the previous day). The important spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7080, 7160, and 7250 yuan/ton respectively, showing a decline from the previous day [1] Spot News - This week, the domestic PE market prices oscillated and declined. The crude oil market maintained an oscillating trend, and the linear futures were generally weak. The downstream factory orders were limited, the enthusiasm for starting work was low, and the intention to purchase raw materials was weak. The sales of petrochemical and trading companies were blocked, and the overall trading volume was limited despite the price decline [1] Market Condition Analysis - Macroscopically, the short - term domestic commodity sentiment is strong due to anti - involution, while there is a risk of an unexpected trade war in August. The polyethylene fundamentals have not improved. The supply pressure is increasing as the maintenance volume in July will be less than that in June and the new production capacity in the third quarter is expected to be 1.6 million tons. The demand support is weak, and although the inventory was previously low year - on - year, it is gradually accumulating. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 77.79%, a decrease of 1.67% from the previous period, mainly due to more maintenance of existing devices [2] Demand - side Situation - The downstream of polyethylene is still in the off - season, with weak terminal orders and cautious enterprise inventory preparation. The shed film industry is in the traditional off - season, with only a slight increase in the operating rate in some areas. The procurement enthusiasm of agricultural film dealers is not high, and the raw material inventory level is lower than last year. Some food and daily - chemical packaging films have short - term rigid demand support, but the continuous replenishment is insufficient. The operating rates of PE hollow and pipes are lower than the same period last year [3][4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]
能源化工玻璃纯碱周度报告-20250706
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 12:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Glass: The medium - term outlook is a sideways market. In the short - term, spot transactions are stable, and policy proposals and peak - season expectations drive a rebound. However, factors such as Hubei's warehouse receipt pricing and high inventory limit the upside. The long - term bullish view is supported by policy expectations, low prices, long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. The bearish view is based on the lack of substantial improvement in the real - estate market and high inventory pressure [6][7]. - Soda Ash: The trend is sideways with a downward bias. High glass inventory and large losses limit the price increase of soda ash. Although short - term valuation is low and there are some positive expectations, the market will face greater delivery pressure. The core factors are high production and high inventory, and it is difficult to expect a long - term shortage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 3.1.1 Supply - Side Situation - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 10,530 tons/day [11]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 11,510 tons/day [12]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 14,600 tons/day [14]. - Potential复产 production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 8,130 tons/day, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [15]. - Potential cold - repair production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 6,900 tons/day [17]. - The current in - production capacity is about 157,000 tons/day. The peak capacity in 2021 was 178,000 tons/day, and the recent low was 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day. The production reduction space in the first half of the year is limited [19][21]. 3.1.2 Price and Profit - This week, transactions were stable, with most prices unchanged and some in Shahe rising by 10 yuan/ton. Shahe's price is around 1,130 - 1,180 yuan/ton, Hubei's is around 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton, and East China's is around 1,220 - 1,360 yuan/ton [27][31]. - Futures rebounded, the basis was weak, and the monthly spread was stable. The monthly spread was weak due to near - month warehouse receipt factors [33][35]. - Profits: Petroleum coke profit is around - 101 yuan/ton, and natural gas and coal fuel profits are around - 199 - 82 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - fired devices is 86 yuan/ton, natural - gas - fired devices is - 188 yuan/ton, and petroleum - coke - fired devices is - 85 yuan/ton [38][41]. 3.1.3 Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recent transactions were relatively stable, and inventory in most regions decreased slightly [44]. - Regional arbitrage: The price in East China decreased, and the regional price difference shrank [45]. 3.1.4 Photovoltaic Glass - Price and profit: Prices declined, recent orders decreased, shipments were average, and inventory increased. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, down 2.27% month - on - month; the 3.2mm coated mainstream order price is 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, down 2.63% month - on - month [53][55]. - Capacity and inventory: As the market weakens, it may enter a production - reduction cycle again. As of early July, the actual capacity is about 94,000 tons/day, and the sample inventory days are about 34.62 days, up 6.80% month - on - month [57][58][62]. 3.2 Soda Ash 3.2.1 Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash开工 changed little, and the potential maintenance volume is currently small. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32% (last week was 82.2%). The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 396,000 tons. With high production and high inventory, either manufacturers increase production - reduction efforts or the real - estate industry recovers to drive the demand for glass and soda ash. Currently, glass has great pressure and cannot increase the demand for soda ash [66][68]. - Inventory is about 1.81 million tons, with 805,000 tons of light soda ash and 1.005 million tons of heavy soda ash [69][70]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The prices in Shahe and Hubei are nominally around 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and prices changed little this week [76][80]. - Due to high production and high inventory, the near - month pressure is large. The basis is slightly strong, and the monthly spread is under pressure. The near - month pressure comes from delivery and trade pressure, and the fundamental factor is the weak glass market and high soda ash production [82][85]. - The joint - alkali profit in East China (excluding Shandong) is - 12.5 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - alkali profit in North China is - 62 yuan/ton [88]. - There are several planned and under - construction projects in the soda ash industry, such as the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy with an expansion capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, planned to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [84].
国泰君安期货所长早读-20250630
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 04:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].