Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, which includes an increase in the coal power capacity price recovery ratio and the inclusion of new energy storage, gas power, and pumped storage in the capacity compensation framework [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Highlights - The coal power capacity recovery ratio is set to increase from approximately 30% in 2024-2025 to no less than 50%, enhancing revenue certainty for coal power operators [1]. - The average capacity fee revenue for coal power is expected to rise from 0.027 yuan/kWh to 0.040 yuan/kWh by 2026 due to the increased recovery ratio [1]. - Local governments are encouraged to adjust the lower limit of medium- and long-term trading prices for coal power and relax the signing ratio requirements for medium- and long-term contracts, promoting flexible pricing mechanisms [1]. Group 2: Capacity Compensation Mechanism Expansion - A new capacity price mechanism for independent new energy storage on the grid side has been established, with compensation standards based on local coal power, calculated according to peak capacity [2]. - The pumped storage capacity price mechanism has been improved, categorizing old and new plants for cost recovery, with new plants participating in market revenue sharing [2]. - A capacity price mechanism for gas power generation may be established by provincial pricing authorities, determining capacity prices based on a fixed cost recovery ratio [2]. Group 3: Reliable Capacity Compensation Mechanism - A reliable capacity definition has been established, referring to the capacity that can provide stable power during peak demand periods [3]. - A reliable capacity compensation mechanism will be developed to replace the original capacity price, focusing on compensating for unrecovered fixed costs of marginal units while considering supply-demand relationships and user affordability [3]. - The compensation scope will include coal power, gas power, and independent new energy storage, gradually expanding to pumped storage, ensuring unified evaluation of capacity contribution value [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Coal power, gas power, and pumped storage operators are expected to benefit from the increased fixed cost recovery ratio and market revenue sharing mechanisms [3]. - The implementation of capacity prices will significantly improve the revenue model for independent energy storage stations, favoring quality storage asset operations [3]. - Regulatory resources will support the construction of new power systems and facilitate the absorption of renewable energy [3]. Recommended companies include Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Longyuan Power [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain good. If the price correction is significant, consider going long on dips. However, due to large price fluctuations and the approaching Spring Festival, attention should be paid to position risks, and short - term trading should be mainly range - bound operations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 2, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 146,000 yuan/ton and closed at 132,440 yuan/ton, with a - 13.99% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 644,314 lots, and the open interest was 347,698 lots (the previous day's open interest was 372,601 lots). The current basis is 7,220 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 32,241 lots, a change of 1,610 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 145,000 - 166,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 142,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, also a change of - 5,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,090 US dollars/ton, a change of - 85 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2] Policy Impact - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism on the Power Generation Side" on January 30, 2026. This policy clearly defines the capacity price mechanism for the first time, encourages the construction and operation of long - term energy storage, and expands the compensation coverage, which will have a relatively positive impact on energy storage demand and lithium carbonate prices [2] Inventory Situation - According to SMM's latest statistics, the spot inventory is 107,482 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,414 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 19,003 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 831 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,007 tons; other inventories are 47,880 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,590 tons [2] Strategy - Unilateral: If the price correction is significant, consider going long on dips. - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The power coal market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival. The port market is stable with limited price fluctuations due to the supply - demand dual - weak pattern, while the origin market shows a narrow - range shock [1][2] - If the information about the reduction of Indonesian coal production is confirmed, it may strongly support and drive up the price of low - calorie Indonesian coal [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Origin Prices**: Shanxi Datong 5500 is 568.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 56.0 yuan year - on - year), Inner Mongolia Ordos 5500 is 532.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 35.0 yuan year - on - year), Shaanxi Yulin 5800 is 598.0 yuan/ton (2.0 yuan month - on - month, - 52.0 yuan year - on - year) [1] - **Port Prices**: Qinhuangdao Port's Shanxi - produced Q5500 is 609.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 61.0 yuan year - on - year), Q5000 is 527.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 54.0 yuan year - on - year), Q4500 is 750.0 yuan/ton (0.0 yuan month - on - month, - 58.0 yuan year - on - year) [1] - **Overseas Prices**: Indonesian FOB Q3800 is 50.5 dollars/ton (0.2 dollars month - on - month, 1.5 dollars year - on - year), Australian FOB Q5500 is 75.9 dollars/ton (1.3 dollars month - on - month, - 3.1 dollars year - on - year) [1] - **February Long - term Agreement Prices**: Shanxi Q5500 is 517.0 yuan/ton (- 23.0 yuan month - on - month), Shaanxi Q5500 is 461.0 yuan/ton (- 22.0 yuan month - on - month), Mengxi Q5500 is 431.0 yuan/ton (- 22.0 yuan month - on - month) [1] Macro and Industry News - **Port and Origin Market**: On February 2, the port market was stable. Upstream quotes remained unchanged, downstream buyers mostly waited and watched, and trading was sluggish. The origin market showed mixed price trends. Some mines saw price increases due to stable long - term agreement transportation and year - end restocking demand, while others had price corrections [1][2] - **Indonesian Coal**: There is new progress in the RKAB approval of Indonesian coal, with some mines having an annual reduction of 20% - 60%. If confirmed, it may support and drive up the price of low - calorie Indonesian coal. The Indonesian coal mining association warns that production cuts may lead to mine closures [2][3] - **Policy**: On January 30, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Power Generation - side Capacity Price Mechanism", including adjusting coal - power capacity prices and optimizing the lower limit of the medium - and long - term market transaction price [2][3] Trend Strength - The power coal trend strength (based on the spot price of power coal at northern ports) is 0 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent issuance of the "Notice on Improving the Capacity Price Mechanism for Power Generation" (Document No. 114) marks a significant advancement in China's electricity market reform, transitioning the pricing mechanism for coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage from a "quantity compensation" model to a "quantity + capacity" dual-track system [1][4]. Group 1: Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The 114 document aims to optimize the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, pumped storage, and new energy storage, ensuring fair compensation for their contributions to peak power supply [1][2]. - The document specifies that the proportion of fixed cost recovery for coal power plants will be increased to no less than 50%, equating to 165 yuan per kilowatt annually [4]. - A unified capacity pricing mechanism for gas power is suggested to be established based on the coal power pricing model [4]. Group 2: Reliability and Compensation - The establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is emphasized, which will fairly compensate different types of power generation units based on their peak capacity contributions [5][6]. - The document proposes that as the electricity market, particularly the spot market, develops, a unified standard for measuring the contributions of different types of units will be implemented [6]. Group 3: Impact on New Energy Storage - The inclusion of grid-side independent new energy storage in the capacity price compensation framework is expected to enhance its economic viability and stimulate investment in this sector [6][7]. - The establishment of a capacity pricing mechanism for grid-side independent storage is anticipated to clarify its commercial model, thereby increasing investment enthusiasm [7][8]. - By providing stable and sustainable revenue expectations, the improved capacity pricing mechanism is seen as crucial for attracting social capital into electricity construction and optimizing the energy structure [8].

Market Analysis - The A-share market experienced a significant decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 2.48% to close at 4015.75 points, marking a substantial drop below the 4100-point level [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.69%, reaching its largest single-day decline since January, while the ChiNext Index fell by 2.46% [2] - Over 4600 stocks in the market declined, with more than 100 stocks hitting the daily limit down, indicating a sharp decrease in market risk appetite [2] Sector Performance - Resource stocks faced heavy losses, with declines of 7.63% in non-ferrous metals, 5.65% in steel, and 5.43% in coal and oil sectors, reflecting concerns over industrial demand as the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3 [5] - Defensive sectors such as food and beverage, and banking showed resilience, with increases of 1.15% and 0.13% respectively, attracting risk-averse capital [5] - The high-voltage power sector surged by 3.84%, driven by policy catalysts from the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration [5] Commodity Market - The commodity index saw a significant drop of 4.37%, with most commodities declining sharply, while only a few chemical products showed gains [7] - Precious metals like gold and silver experienced steep declines, with silver dropping by 17.00% and gold by 15.73%, reflecting a market shift away from high-volatility assets [7][8] - The market exhibited extreme differentiation, with only a few products like caustic soda and PVC showing upward movement amidst widespread declines [7] Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed mixed results, with the 30-year contract rising by 0.18% while shorter-term contracts experienced slight declines [10] - The central bank's net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan indicates a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of continued monetary easing supporting bond market sentiment [10] - The overall market liquidity remains stable ahead of the upcoming Spring Festival, with a focus on the central bank's liquidity tools [10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a shift from a previous bullish trend to a more volatile market environment, recommending a focus on sectors like photovoltaic, commercial aerospace, and precious metals for medium to long-term investments [12] - The commodity market is expected to undergo a period of consolidation after rapid declines, with potential for upward movement in precious metals in the medium to long term [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy developments to identify investment opportunities [12]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 完善发电侧容量电价机制，2025 年新增光伏 /风电装机 315/119GW 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2026 年 02 月 02 日 执业证书：S0600522030002 renyx@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -5% -2% 1% 4% 7% 10% 13% 16% 19% 22% 25% 2025/2/5 2025/6/4 2025/10/1 2026/1/28 公用事业 沪深300 相关研究 《寒潮退潮，美气价格高位回落；欧 洲&国内气价相对平稳》 2026-02-02 《关注火箭可回收路径中稀缺耗材， 九丰能源推进剂特气份额&价值量提 升，全国冬季用电负荷首破 14 亿千 瓦》 证券分析师 袁理 2026-01-27 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 任逸轩 东吴证券研究所 1 / 20 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：1）《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》发布。国 家发展改革 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the utility sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the improvement of the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which is expected to enhance the value of regulatory assets and reshape the revenue model for coal-fired power plants [6]. - The coal power recovery ratio is set to increase from approximately 30% in 2024-2025 to no less than 50%, leading to a projected increase in average capacity revenue from 0.027 CNY/kWh to 0.040 CNY/kWh by 2026 [6]. - The report emphasizes the expansion of the capacity compensation mechanism, allowing multiple stakeholders to share flexibility premiums, and introduces a new pricing mechanism for independent new energy storage systems [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes a significant shift in the regulatory framework, with the inclusion of new energy storage and gas power into the capacity compensation framework, enhancing revenue certainty for these sectors [6]. - The establishment of a reliable capacity compensation mechanism is proposed to ensure fair payment for peak contributions, particularly in regions with high renewable energy installations [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that operators of coal, gas, and pumped storage power plants will benefit from the increased fixed cost recovery ratio and market revenue sharing mechanisms [6]. - Independent new energy storage systems are expected to see improved revenue models due to the implementation of the capacity pricing mechanism, which is favorable for high-quality storage asset operations [6]. - Specific companies to watch include Huaneng International, Huadian International for coal power; South Grid Storage for pumped storage; and Longyuan Power, Three Gorges Energy, and Zhongmin Energy for new energy [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the utility sector [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the release of a notification regarding the improvement of the capacity price mechanism for power generation, increasing the coal power recovery ratio to 50%, enhancing revenue certainty [4] - It forecasts an addition of 315 GW of solar and 119 GW of wind power capacity in 2025, with a total installed capacity of 3.89 billion kW by the end of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [4] - The average electricity purchase price in January 2026 decreased by 8% year-on-year [4] - The report emphasizes the need for investment in green energy, coal power, hydropower, nuclear power, and solar assets, recommending specific companies for investment [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes a stable growth in electricity consumption, with a total of 9.46 trillion kWh from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [13] - Cumulative power generation in 2025 reached 9.72 trillion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 2.2% [23] - The report tracks the average electricity purchase price, which was 374 RMB/MWh in January 2026, down 8% from the previous year [38] Power Generation - The report indicates that coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were 692 RMB/ton as of January 30, 2026, showing a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% [44] - The inflow and outflow rates at the Three Gorges Reservoir were 7460 m³/s and 9230 m³/s respectively, with year-on-year increases of 65.8% and 11.7% [51] - The report highlights the significant growth in renewable energy, with solar and wind power installations increasing by 315 GW and 119 GW respectively in 2025 [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on green energy investments, with specific recommendations for companies such as Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and others in the renewable sector [4] - It also emphasizes the transformation potential in coal power and the benefits of hydropower due to low costs and strong cash flow [4]

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent issuance of a notification by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to adapt to the needs of the new power system and market structure [6][9]. - As of the end of 2025, China's cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage is expected to reach 213.3 GW, representing a year-on-year growth of 54%. The market share of lithium-ion batteries in new energy storage is projected to increase significantly from 8.2% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 65.8% by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [12][19]. - The report identifies 13 core companies in the energy storage industry chain listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange, including Changhong Energy, Haixi Communication, and others, which are involved in various aspects of energy storage technology and products [28][29]. Group 2 - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the new energy industry on the Beijing Stock Exchange has decreased from 37.1X to 35.9X, with the median market capitalization dropping from 27.2 billion to 24.2 billion [31][32]. - The report notes that the median P/E ratio for electronic equipment companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange has declined from 65.8X to 61.1X, indicating a shift in market valuation trends [31][32]. - The report indicates that the median P/E ratio for mechanical equipment companies has decreased from 44.6X to 42.3X, reflecting changes in investor sentiment and market conditions [31][32].