Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - After the Politburo meeting on July 25 fell short of expectations, commodity sentiment cooled down, and today it hit rock - bottom. Most energy and chemical products, except for PVC and two types of rubber, mainly fluctuated with market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in sentiment and the trend of crude oil on the cost side [3][4] - Trump's remarks pressuring Russia briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply pressure in the third quarter has soared. The North American peak season is coming to an end, and the off - season is approaching. The supply - demand pressure for crude oil will gradually emerge [5] Summary by Variety Crude Oil - Logic: Trump's remarks briefly boosted oil prices, but OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, and the supply - demand pressure will gradually appear. The North American peak season is ending, and the off - season is approaching, with the United States' refined oil inventories increasing for three consecutive weeks and crude oil inventories starting to accumulate [5] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose and then fell today, with intraday fluctuations. The strategy is to wait and see on the hourly cycle, and the short - term support is at the 526 level [5] Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply start - up has increased, port inventories have continued to accumulate, total inventories are at a historically high level compared to the same period, actual demand has not improved, and new device production is approaching. The fundamental driving force remains bearish [8] - Technical Analysis: Short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It continued to fall today and closed at a new low. The short - term pressure above is temporarily at the 7440 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [8] Rubber - Logic: Precipitation disturbances in Hainan and Southeast Asia postponed the supply increase, but a new typhoon is moving north, and supply increase is a relatively certain path. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The current rubber inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish [12] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 15120 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: Supply device start - up has increased, synthetic rubber production has significantly rebounded. The downstream tire inventory is at a historical high, and high - level start - up is difficult to sustain. The cost of butadiene has some support due to low port inventories, but the medium - term fundamental pressure on synthetic rubber remains high [17] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today and hit a new short - term low. The pressure above is at the 11950 level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [17] PX - Logic: Polyester start - up continues to decline, demand expectations are pessimistic, supply start - up has rebounded, and supply - demand is weak. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [20] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [20] PTA - Logic: Short - term supply - demand changes are not significant, inventory levels are not high, and short - term fundamental contradictions are not prominent. However, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline significantly, and it mainly fluctuates with crude oil [22] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today for downward correction, and the short - term structure is unclear, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [22] PP - Logic: Downstream demand is sluggish, supply - side start - up fluctuates slightly, but previously shut - down devices will gradually restart, and new production capacity will be put into operation, so the supply pressure is expected to remain. Inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force is bearish [24] - Technical Analysis: Short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly cycle is close to breaking through but has not been confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [24] Methanol - Logic: Domestic supply is at a high level compared to the same period, downstream demand is weak, short - term arrivals are normal, port inventories continue to accumulate, and overseas Iranian device start - up is stable. The short - term fundamentals are average. Attention should be paid to cost and recent sentiment drivers [29] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term decline/shock on the daily level, short - term decline structure. It fell with reduced positions today, following market sentiment. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [29] PVC - Logic: Supply has increased, demand remains sluggish during the off - season, inventories continue to accumulate, and the fundamental driving force remains bearish. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [31] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term decline structure on the hourly level. It broke through downward with increased positions today, and the short - term trend reversal was confirmed. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [31] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Start - up has slightly decreased, demand is weak, port inventories fluctuate at a low level, and there are both short - term low - inventory and medium - term inventory - accumulation expectations. The fundamental driving force is weak. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [33] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, short - term shock structure on the hourly level. It fell with reduced positions today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear, but the 15 - minute level confirmed a decline. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [33] Plastic - Logic: Shut - down devices gradually restarted in late July, start - up has increased, downstream overall start - up is at a low level compared to the same period, demand is weak, and attention should be paid to the delivery logic as the 09 basis weakens. The anti - involution sentiment that previously drove the upward trend cooled down significantly today. It should be treated bearishly [37] - Technical Analysis: Medium - term shock/decline structure on the daily level, shock structure on the hourly level. It fluctuated within the day today, and the hourly - level structure is unclear. It has followed market sentiment recently. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fluctuated upward, then dropped to a short - term low and rebounded again. Except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts slightly recovered. From the perspective of the positions of the top 20 institutions in the exchange, the long positions of the EC2510 contract increased by 1960 lots to 28074 lots, the short positions increased by 2913 lots to 34037 lots, and the trading volume increased by 28898 lots to 83222 lots (bilateral). The Sino - US economic and trade talks basically continued the previously agreed tariff levels, having a neutral - slightly - positive impact on market sentiment. Commodity sentiment also drove up the EC price. However, some major shipping companies still lowered the spot freight rates, which set an upper limit on the increase of EC and brought certain negative factors to the market, causing the futures price to fall after rising to a certain level. For the future market, it is expected that the EC will likely fluctuate slightly downward, but the impact of commodity sentiment and the capital side needs to be vigilant [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand and Market Sentiment - **Positive Factors**: From July 28th to 29th, local time, the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden reached a consensus to extend the suspension of 24% of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures for 90 days, which had a neutral - slightly - positive impact on market sentiment [1][2]. - **Negative Factors**: CMA CGM lowered the spot freight quotes for the European line in the past three weeks [2]. Futures Market - **Contract Price Performance**: On July 30, 2025, except for EC2510, the prices of other monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures slightly recovered. For example, EC2508 closed at 2139.0 points, with a daily increase of 1.33% and a weekly decrease of 4.50%; EC2510 closed at 1468.7 points, with a daily increase of 0.60% and a weekly decrease of 4.44% [1][3]. - **Position and Trading Volume Changes**: For the EC2510 contract, the long positions increased by 1960 lots to 28074 lots, the short positions increased by 2913 lots to 34037 lots, and the trading volume increased by 28898 lots to 83222 lots (bilateral) [1]. Spot Market - **Container Shipping Quotes**: On August 7th, for Maersk's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1846, up $10 from the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $3102, up $10. On August 14th, the 20GP total quote was $1715, up $10, and the 40GP total quote was $2870, up $10. In the past three weeks, for Hapag - Lloyd's ships departing from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the 20GP total quote was $1935, down $100, and the 40GP total quote was $3135, down $200 [5]. - **Global Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS for the European route was 2316.56 points, down 3.50%; for the US - West route, it was 1284.01 points, down 1.37%. SCFI for the European route was $2090/TEU, up 0.53%; for the US - West route, it was $2067/FEU, down 3.50%. XSI for the European line was $3399/FEU, down 0.03%; for the US - West line, it was $2179/FEU, down 2.2%. The FBX composite freight rate index was $2377/FEU, up 0.46% [6][7]. Port and Shipping Conditions - **Port Waiting Time**: On July 29th, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 1.808 days, down 0.179 days from the previous day; at Shanghai Port, it was 1.023 days, down 0.026 days; at Yantian Port, it was 1.097 days, down 0.044 days; at Singapore Port, it was 0.660 days, up 0.136 days; at Jakarta Port, it was 1.132 days, down 0.505 days; at Long Beach Port, it was 2.339 days, up 0.267 days; at Savannah Port, it was 1.222 days, up 0.084 days [11]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Ships**: On July 29th, the average speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.867 knots, down 0.045 knots from the previous day; for 3000 + container ships, it was 14.700 knots, down 0.082 knots; for 1000 + container ships, it was 13.124 knots, up 0.055 knots. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 17, down 2 from the previous day [21]. Risk Management Strategies - **Space Management**: If a company has obtained shipping space but has full capacity or poor booking volume during the peak season and is worried about falling freight rates, it can short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) to lock in profits, with a recommended entry range of 1700 - 1800 [1]. - **Cost Management**: If a shipping company increases blank sailings or the market is about to enter the peak season, and it wants to book space according to orders, it can buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at present to determine the booking cost in advance, with a recommended entry range of 1350 - 1450 [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical market has been affected by numerous non - fundamental factors recently. As August approaches, fundamentals will become the dominant factor. It is advisable for investors to adopt a light - position hedging strategy. The overall futures prices of energy and chemical products will continue to fluctuate, and basis and inventory can be used as benchmarks for hedging [3]. - For different varieties: - Crude oil: Geopolitical factors support prices, but there is supply pressure. The high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide short - term support. Oil prices will oscillate, and geopolitical risks should be monitored [9]. - Asphalt: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices fluctuate around 3600 yuan/ton. The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - High - sulfur fuel oil: There is significant downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and reduced demand. It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It follows the oscillation of crude oil prices. Although there are negative factors, the current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil** - Price: Overnight prices rose. - Main logic: The risk of increased US sanctions on Russian oil has increased. There is supply pressure from OPEC +'s production increase, but high refinery operations in China and the US and strong demand provide support. - Outlook: The strong reality of high refinery operations and the weak expectation of supply pressure will balance each other, leading to price oscillation. Geopolitical risks should be watched [9]. - **Asphalt** - Price: The main futures contract closed at 3602 yuan/ton, with spot prices in different regions varying. - Main logic: OPEC +'s production increase will put pressure on the cracking spread. The accumulation of floating storage and supply pressure on raw materials will affect futures prices. Demand is not strong enough for a bull market. - Outlook: The absolute price is overvalued, and the monthly spread is expected to decline [9][10]. - **High - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 2879 yuan/ton. - Main logic: OPEC +'s possible over - production, falling natural gas prices, and reduced power generation demand will lead to increased supply and decreased demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate weakly [10][11]. - **Low - sulfur Fuel Oil** - Price: The main contract closed at 3588 yuan/ton. - Main logic: It follows crude oil prices. There are negative factors such as reduced shipping demand, but the low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil. - Outlook: It will follow the oscillation of crude oil prices [12]. - **PX** - Price: On July 28, CFR China Taiwan was 851 (- 23) dollars/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment led to price drops, but the increase in crude oil prices at night provided cost support. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [13]. - **PTA** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 4845 (- 55) yuan/ton. - Main logic: Weak polyester yarn sales, cooling commodity sentiment, but cost support remains. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of major plant maintenance in early August [14]. - **Pure Benzene** - Price: On July 28, the 2603 contract closed at 6241 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The improvement in fundamentals was limited by inventory pressure. - Outlook: The market may enter an oscillation period, and attention should be paid to high - level statements and Fed data [15]. - **Styrene** - Price: On July 28, the East China spot price was 7340 (- 160) yuan/ton. - Main logic: There is a weakening expectation in supply and demand, and inventory is accumulating. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to commodity sentiment [16][17]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)** - Price: On July 28, the DCE main contract 2509 closed at 4436 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and typhoon - induced inventory reduction. However, supply is expected to increase in August and September. - Outlook: Inventory may reach an inflection point [17][18]. - **Short - fiber** - Price: On July 28, the PF2509 contract closed at 6482 yuan/ton. - Main logic: Cooling sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees will remain stable, and prices will follow raw materials [18][19]. - **Bottle - chip** - Price: On July 28, the East China market price dropped to 6035 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of "anti - involution" sentiment and falling upstream raw material prices. Supply - demand drivers are limited. - Outlook: Processing fees have support, and prices will follow raw materials [20][21]. - **Methanol** - Price: On July 28, the Taicang spot price was 2385 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment and the drag from coal prices. There is limited impact from policies, and the upper price limit is restricted by downstream feedback. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [22]. - **Urea** - Price: On July 22, the factory - warehouse and market low prices were 1780 (+ 20) and 1830 (+ 20) yuan/ton respectively. - Main logic: Strong supply and weak demand. Market sentiment temporarily boosts prices, but the fundamental support is limited. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the return to fundamentals [22]. - **LLDPE (Plastic)** - Price: On July 28, the spot price was 7300 (- 50) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of commodity sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand in the off - season. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [25]. - **PP** - Price: On July 28, the East China PP拉丝 price was 7100 (- 40) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of macro - level sentiment, supply pressure, and weak demand. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [26][27]. - **PL** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong low - end price was 6170 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The short - term decline in commodity sentiment and the influence of PP and methanol fluctuations. - Outlook: It will oscillate in the short term [27]. - **PVC** - Price: On July 28, the East China calcium - carbide - based PVC price was 5150 (- 90) yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment and fundamental pressure, with an expected increase in production and cost. - Outlook: It will oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy details [29]. - **Caustic Soda** - Price: On July 28, the Shandong 32% caustic soda price was 2594 yuan/ton. - Main logic: The cooling of market sentiment, low inventory in Shandong, and cost support. - Outlook: The downward price space is limited, and attention should be paid to policy orientation [29]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring** - **Inter - period Spreads**: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.8 with a change of 0.02, and PX having various inter - period spreads with corresponding changes [31]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has its own basis and warehouse receipt data. For example, asphalt's basis is 206 with a change of 41, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82180 [32]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are also specific values and changes for inter - variety spreads, like 1 - month PP - 3MA being - 340 with a change of 185 [33]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring** - Although specific content is not fully presented, it is expected to involve detailed monitoring of the basis and spreads of various chemical products such as methanol, urea, etc. [34][46][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given, suggesting buying on dips and taking profits, and making left - hand bets on the September Russia geopolitical expectations and hurricane - related supply disruptions when oil prices drop significantly [3]. - Methanol is affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment and may face price correction pressure. The upstream supply pressure is expected to increase, while the demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at high prices [5]. - Urea's price is affected by sentiment. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. It is advisable to pay attention to long positions at low prices [7]. - For rubber, due to the peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia, the supply concern sentiment may decline. The price has a large correction. It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term and consider a long - short band operation for different contracts [9][11]. - PVC has a poor fundamental situation with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. Although it is strong in the short - term, there is a risk of a significant decline [11]. - The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term as the BZN spread is expected to be repaired [13]. - The price of polyethylene may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. - The price of polypropylene is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. - PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. - PTA may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. - The fundamental situation of ethylene glycol is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21]. Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures rose $1.91, or 2.94%, to $66.98; Brent main crude oil futures rose $2.01, or 2.94%, to $70.4; INE main crude oil futures fell 2.40 yuan, or 0.45%, to 527 yuan [2]. - **Data**: In China, weekly crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.96 million barrels to 91.93 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.29 million barrels to 102.07 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.26 million barrels to 194.00 million barrels [2]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 115 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 91 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 7 [5]. - **Analysis**: Affected by the cooling of the overall commodity market sentiment, the price may decline. The upstream supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weakening [5]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 28, the 09 contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 32 [7]. - **Analysis**: Affected by sentiment, the supply and demand are weak, and the inventory reduction is slow [7]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU had a large correction [9]. - **Analysis**: The peace talks between Thailand and Cambodia may reduce supply concerns. The price has a large decline, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [9][11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 224 yuan to 5149 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5100 (- 60) yuan/ton, the basis was - 49 (+ 164) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 128 (- 15) yuan/ton [11]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is poor with strong supply, weak demand, and high valuation. There is a risk of a significant decline [11]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices fell, and the basis strengthened [12][13]. - **Analysis**: The BZN spread is expected to be repaired, and the price is expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward in the short - term [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [15]. - **Analysis**: The price may follow the cost side and fluctuate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [15]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [16]. - **Analysis**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 172 yuan to 6890 yuan, and the PX CFR fell 23 dollars to 851 dollars [18]. - **Analysis**: It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to consider going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 124 yuan to 4812 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 95 yuan to 4800 yuan [20]. - **Analysis**: It may continue to accumulate inventory, but due to improved downstream conditions, it is recommended to consider going long on dips following PX [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 109 yuan to 4436 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 83 yuan to 4499 yuan [21]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is expected to turn from strong to weak, and there is a short - term pressure on valuation decline [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment for commodities has turned positive, the PTA production capacity supply in China has contracted, the port inventory of PTA has declined, and a large number of warehouse receipts are being cancelled. The spread between PX and naphtha has expanded to around $250, while the profit margins of alkyl transfer and TDP are not optimistic. The spread between PX and MX remains at around $90. Bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. The market port inventory has been reduced, and polyester replenishment has improved under the weakening basis. The basis of PTA has rebounded from 0 to 30. The maintenance of the northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed. The early maintenance of mainstream PTA factories has significantly boosted the market [2]. - The coal price has rebounded, leading to an increase in the ethylene glycol price. The macro - sentiment has clearly improved, and the chemical industry has followed the upward trend of commodity sentiment. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants, especially those in Saudi Arabia, has been continuously postponed, which may have a significant impact on the future market. This has also been boosting the ethylene glycol price. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol has decreased. The polyester production and sales have weakened, and the polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. Due to the rapid increase in polyester prices, the profits of downstream weaving have shrunk, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Summary - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price increased from 508.9 yuan/barrel on July 24, 2025, to 512.9 yuan/barrel on July 25, 2025, with an increase of 4 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - Related Data**: PTA - SC spread increased from 1151.8 yuan/ton to 1208.7 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3114 to 1.3243. CFR China PX price increased from 856 to 874, PX - naphtha spread increased from 289 to 294. PTA主力期价 increased from 4850 yuan/ton to 4936 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased from 4815 yuan/ton to 4895 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 206.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased from 236.8 yuan/ton to 223.6 yuan/ton. The主力基差 decreased from 0 to - 8. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 30746 to 30740 [2]. - **MEG - Related Data**: MEG主力期价 increased from 4485 yuan/ton to 4545 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 84.67 yuan/ton to - 78.86 yuan/ton, MEG内盘 increased from 4530 yuan/ton to 4582 yuan/ton, and the主力基差 increased from 58 to 60 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: PX开工率 remained at 77.29%, PTA开工率 remained at 80.59%, MEG开工率 increased from 57.48% to 57.74%, and the polyester load remained at 87.01% [2]. - **Polyester Product Data**: POY150D/48F price increased from 6685 to 6710, POY现金流 decreased from - 199 to - 260. FDY150D/96F price increased from 6930 to 7000, FDY现金流 decreased from - 454 to - 470. DTY150D/48F price increased from 7860 to 7895, DTY现金流 decreased from - 224 to - 275. The long - filament production and sales decreased from 44% to 29%. 1.4D直纺涤短 price increased from 6650 to 6705, 涤短现金流 decreased from 116 to 85, and the short - fiber production and sales increased from 68% to 78%. The semi - light slice price increased from 5865 to 5925, 切片现金流 decreased from - 119 to - 145, and the slice production and sales increased from 86% to 130% [2]. 2. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China that stopped for maintenance around May 6 has been restarted after feeding materials. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently stopped for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Report Information - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoint - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated weakly, dampening market trading sentiment. With some ex - factory prices adjusted, traders quoted prices with narrow fluctuations. Downstream buyers purchased according to orders, and the willingness to replenish inventory was average. The current downstream agricultural film production is at the lowest level of the year, and there are no obvious signs of improvement in the production of pipes and plastic weaving. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's push to adjust the structure and optimize the supply of key petrochemical industries has limited substantial impact on the polypropylene and plastic industries, and short - term capacity adjustment is difficult. Currently, the commodity sentiment is boosted by bulls, and polyolefins continue to oscillate strongly following the sector [6]. Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Increase (yuan/ton) | Increase Rate (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7325 | 7416 | 7420 | 7313 | 107 | 1.46 | 139453 | 5019 | | Plastic 2605 | 7318 | 7420 | 7425 | 7312 | 135 | 1.85 | 5593 | 1714 | | Plastic 2509 | 7287 | 7368 | 7373 | 7264 | 92 | 1.26 | 394148 | - 13406 | | PP2601 | 7092 | 7170 | 7180 | 7077 | 98 | 1.39 | 148412 | 17094 | | PP2605 | 7078 | 7159 | 7165 | 7073 | 96 | 1.36 | 9057 | 1218 | | PP2509 | 7091 | 7168 | 7173 | 7076 | 93 | 1.31 | 382806 | - 9868 | [5] Spot Market - On July 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 790,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (3.66%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 765,000 tons [9]. - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The price of linear LLDPE in North China was 7140 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7180 - 7580 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7280 - 7550 yuan/ton [9]. - The price of the Shandong propylene market remained stable. As of 12:00, the reference price was 6350 - 6400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. With limited guidance from the news, enterprise quotations were mainly stable, and individual prices were slightly lowered [9]. - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some prices rising by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The actual demand for raw materials from downstream factories was difficult to increase, and they were cautious when entering the market to purchase. Actual transactions focused on negotiation. In the morning, the mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6970 - 7130 yuan/ton, in East China was 7050 - 7170 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7010 - 7200 yuan/ton [9].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PTA shows strength with supply contraction and warm commodity sentiment, but its spot market is becoming looser, and the actual polyester output hits a new high. Polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and bottle chips and short - fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle in July. Northeast PX plant and Zhejiang reform device maintenance are postponed [2] - For ethylene glycol, coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment warms up, but the later arrival volume is large. Polyester production and sales weaken, and polyester enters the maintenance cycle. The sharp rise in polyester prices shrinks downstream weaving profits and reduces terminal load, which is a negative impact on the market [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - INE crude oil price drops from 518.2 yuan/barrel on July 15th to 517.4 yuan/barrel on July 16th; PTA - SC rises from 930.2 yuan/ton to 946.0 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increases from 1.2470 to 1.2516; CFR China PX drops from 838 to 834; PX - naphtha spread rises from 241 to 250 [2] - PTA's main futures price rises from 4696 yuan/ton to 4706 yuan/ton, spot price from 4715 yuan/ton to 4720 yuan/ton, spot processing fee from 176.7 yuan/ton to 211.5 yuan/ton, and disk processing fee from 172.7 yuan/ton to 202.5 yuan/ton. PTA's main basis rises from 9 to 11, and the number of PTA warehouse receipts decreases from 41840 to 40760 [2] - MEG's main futures price rises from 4322 yuan/ton to 4351 yuan/ton, MEG - naphtha from (105.84) yuan/ton to (105.03) yuan/ton, MEG inner - market price drops from 4408 to 4400, and the main basis drops from 72 to 70 [2] Industry Chain Start - up - PX start - up rate remains at 78.98%, PTA start - up rate at 80.59%, MEG start - up rate rises from 54.86% to 56.65%, and polyester load remains at 87.15% [2] Polyester Product Data - In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price drops from 6590 to 6570, POY cash flow from (168) to (190); FDY150D/96F price remains at 6815, FDY cash flow from (443) to (445); DTY150D/48F price remains at 7890, DTY cash flow from (68) to (70). Filament production and sales rise from 36% to 41% [2] - In polyester staple fiber, 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple price remains at 6680, staple fiber cash flow from 272 to 270, and short - fiber production and sales rise from 40% to 44% [2] - In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price drops from 5785 to 5770, chip cash flow from (73) to (90), and chip production and sales rise from 32% to 63% [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China restarts after parking for maintenance around May 6th, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China stops for maintenance recently, expected to last about 10 days [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Commodity sentiment has warmed up. PTA has strengthened in the context of supply - side contraction. Although the polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduced load, the actual polyester production has reached a new high. In July, bottle chips and staple fibers are about to enter the maintenance cycle. PTA spot is becoming looser, and the market spot arrival volume has increased. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The maintenance of the Northeast PX plant and the Zhejiang reforming unit has been postponed [2]. - For ethylene glycol, coal prices have rebounded slightly, and commodity sentiment has clearly warmed up. However, the later arrival volume is large. Polyester production and sales have weakened, and polyester has entered the maintenance cycle. The rapid rise in polyester prices has compressed downstream weaving profits, and the terminal load has significantly declined, which has a certain negative impact on the market [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 513.9 yuan/barrel on July 11, 2025, to 527.5 yuan/barrel on July 14, 2025, an increase of 13.60 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA - SC**: The PTA - SC price difference decreased from 965.4 yuan/ton to 906.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58.83 yuan/ton; the PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.2585 to 1.2365, a decrease of 0.0220 [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price rose from 837 to 852, an increase of 15; the PX - naphtha price difference rose from 253 to 268, an increase of 15 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 rose from 4700 yuan/ton to 4740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the PTA spot price rose from 4710 to 4735, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the spot processing fee decreased from 193.5 yuan/ton to 136.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.0 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee decreased from 183.5 yuan/ton to 141.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.0 yuan/ton; the main basis increased from 0 to 8, an increase of 8; the PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 43274 to 43190, a decrease of 84 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 rose from 4305 yuan/ton to 4357 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.0 yuan/ton; the MEG - naphtha price difference increased from (111.24) yuan/ton to (105.43) yuan/ton, an increase of 5.8 yuan/ton; the MEG domestic price rose from 4384 to 4398, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton; the main basis decreased from 72 to 70, a decrease of 2.0 [2]. - **Industrial Chain开工情况**: The PX, PTA, and MEG开工 rates remained unchanged at 78.98%, 80.59%, and 54.86% respectively, while the polyester load increased from 86.87% to 87.15%, an increase of 0.28% [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price decreased from 6645 to 6590, a decrease of 55.0; POY cash flow decreased from (101) to (182), a decrease of 81.0; FDY150D/96F price decreased from 6925 to 6935, a decrease of 90.0; FDY cash flow decreased from (321) to (437), a decrease of 116.0; DTY150D/48F price decreased from 7895 to 7890, a decrease of 5.0; DTY cash flow decreased from (51) to (82), a decrease of 31.0; the long - filament production and sales rate increased from 35% to 37%, an increase of 2%; 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6700 to 6685, a decrease of 15; polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased from 304 to 263, a decrease of 41.0; the staple fiber production and sales rate increased from 41% to 73%, an increase of 32%; semi - bright chip price increased from 5795 to 5800, an increase of 5.0; chip cash flow decreased from (51) to (72), a decrease of 21.0; the chip production and sales rate increased from 62% to 144%, an increase of 82% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has been restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA device in East China has recently been shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

责任自负。本报告仅向特定客户推送,未经国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以 传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况适究法律 险,入市需谨慎。 ITG 国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 用 市 市 W FF fød 官 方 网 站 服 热线 la jat 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | 一 国贸 期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 投资咨询号: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/7/11 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/9 | 2025/7/10 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4750 | 4735 | (15.00) | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4347 | 4374 | 27.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨8至6528。现货市场:涤纶短 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of industrial products is strong, and the prices of most non - ferrous metals show different trends. The price of copper may continue to rise in the short term but the growth rate is expected to slow down; the price of aluminum is expected to be strong in the short term; the price of lead is generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited; the price of zinc is boosted by the market structure; the price of tin is expected to fluctuate within a certain range; the price of nickel may show a downward trend; the price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate and adjust; the price of alumina is recommended to short at high prices; the price of stainless steel is expected to be weak; the price of cast aluminum alloy may be volatile [1][3][4][5][6][7][9][11][12][14] 3. Summary by Metal Type Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 0.67% to $10,010/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 80,090 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE copper is 80,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is 9,850 - 10,100 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 2,000 to 93,250 tons. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.03 to 25,000 tons [1] - **Market Situation**: The supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and the inventory is structurally low. However, the consumption toughness of electrolytic copper is decreasing, and China's exports are increasing [1] Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.48% to $2,614/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton. The expected operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,850 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is 2,580 - 2,640 dollars/ton [3] - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 13,000 to 693,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 28,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.05 to 329,000 tons [3] - **Market Situation**: The domestic "anti - involution competition" expectation warms up the commodity sentiment, and the aluminum inventory is at a low level, supporting the price [3] Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.41% to 17,178 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose by 1 to $2,042/ton [4] - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 46,400 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons [4] - **Market Situation**: The supply of primary lead remains high, and the supply of recycled lead is in short supply. The price of lead - acid batteries stops falling and rebounds, but the weak domestic consumption restricts the increase of SHFE lead [4] Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 0.10% to 22,194 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by 26.5 to $2,713/ton [5] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 6,600 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons [5] - **Market Situation**: The supply of zinc ore remains high, and the TC continues to rise. The LME market zinc Cash - 3S structure rises rapidly, which boosts the zinc price [5] Tin - **Price**: It is expected that the domestic tin price will fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price will fluctuate in the range of 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [6] - **Inventory**: As of June 27, 2025, the national main market tin ingot social inventory was 9,266 tons, an increase of 361 tons from last Friday [6] - **Market Situation**: The short - term supply of tin ore is in short supply, and the upstream enterprises are reluctant to sell, but the terminal demand is weak, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a stalemate [6] Nickel - **Price**: It is recommended to short at high prices. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [7] - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data provided - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged, and the cost support weakens, which may lead to a downward trend [7] Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC evening quotation was 61,577 yuan, up 0.65%. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 62,900 - 65,300 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory**: The salt factory may face inventory accumulation pressure before the peak season [9] - **Market Situation**: The low - level varieties are tough, and the lithium carbonate price may fluctuate and adjust [9] Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 4.23% to 3,058 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [11] - **Inventory**: The Wednesday futures warehouse receipts were 21,300 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous day [11] - **Market Situation**: The policy of Guinea may lead to the increase of bauxite price, and the overall commodity market is bullish [11] Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The spot market is expected to remain weak [12] - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased to 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 0.25% [12] - **Market Situation**: The stainless steel market is in the traditional off - season, with weak demand and a pattern of oversupply [12] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract closed up 0.3% to 19,885 yuan/ton. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [14] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by about 200 to 21,000 tons [14] - **Market Situation**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is mainly affected by the aluminum price [14]