Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced continuous fluctuations since October, with the Hang Seng Index dropping from 27,000 points to nearly 25,000 points, a decline of over 2,000 points [1] - On October 21, the market showed signs of recovery, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.65% to 26,027.55 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.76% to 9,302.66 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index climbing by 1.26% to 6,007.94 points [1] Sector Performance - On October 21, most of the 12 comprehensive industries within the Hang Seng Index saw gains, particularly in industrial, non-essential consumer, and financial sectors, each rising over 1% [1] - Strong performances were noted in the electrical equipment, semiconductor, and non-bank financial sectors, with notable stock increases such as Huiju Technology up 11.65% and Ding Shi Capital up over 33% [1] Southbound Capital - Despite the market's adjustments, southbound capital maintained a net inflow, with cumulative net purchases exceeding 45 billion HKD as of October 20 [2] - Key stocks that saw increased holdings included GCL-Poly Energy, Agricultural Bank of China, and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, each gaining over 200 million shares [2] Long-term Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent market reactions may be overdone, with the long-term upward trend of the Hong Kong stock market remaining intact despite short-term volatility [2] - The current international trade situation is expected to stabilize, with potential positive impacts on the market as external risks decrease [3] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include diversifying investments between risk assets and safe-haven assets, focusing on undervalued sectors such as essential consumer goods, and identifying high-dividend stocks as stable investments [2][3] - The emphasis on technology and new economy sectors is expected to provide strong support for the stock market, with upcoming fiscal and monetary policy measures likely to enhance market sentiment [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions, market uncertainty due to the U.S. government shutdown, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, supported by increased central bank gold purchases [3][4]. Group 1: Market Data - On October 20, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 970.32 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 1.63% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 728,228 contracts, with an open interest of 207,916 contracts [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 975.50 yuan per gram, indicating a premium of 5.18 yuan per gram over the futures price [3]. Group 2: Fundamental Factors - The rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened market risk aversion due to international trade tensions and geopolitical conflicts, leading to increased buying interest in gold [3]. - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, contributing to market uncertainty, which is expected to persist for an extended period [3]. - Recent economic data indicates a weak labor market, with non-farm payrolls significantly below market expectations and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [4]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Financial institutions suggest that the dual support of potential interest rate cuts and risk aversion will likely sustain high gold prices in the near term [4]. - The Federal Reserve's focus on employment and inflation metrics, along with expectations of two interest rate cuts this year, is influencing market sentiment towards gold [4]. - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East is further fueling market risk aversion, while a potential easing of international trade tensions may reduce the demand for gold as a safe haven [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions and market dynamics, with a notable increase of over 64% this year, despite recent fluctuations and a potential for further upward movement in the future [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold reached a high of $4,274.53 per ounce due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid renewed conflict in the Middle East, but later retreated to around $4,247.30 [1]. - The gold market is currently characterized by a fierce tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, influenced by geopolitical risks, trade relations, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations [2]. - The price of gold has seen a significant increase, touching a historical high of $4,379.38 before closing at $4,247.17, marking a weekly gain of 5.69% and a ninth consecutive week of increases [1][2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - Key support for gold is identified at $4,200, with resistance at $4,280; maintaining above $4,200 is crucial for the upward trend [4]. - The recent high of $4,274.6 was followed by a drop to $4,218, indicating potential short-term volatility, but the overall bullish trend remains intact [4]. - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying on dips around $4,200-$4,205 and selling on rallies near $4,275-$4,280, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [5].

Group 1: Industry Developments - "Linglong No. 1" successfully completed its cold test, marking a significant milestone for the world's first land-based commercial modular small reactor, which is expected to generate 1 billion kWh annually, meeting the electricity needs of 526,000 households in Hainan and reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 880,000 tons [2][2]. - Breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology have been achieved, allowing for a potential increase in range from 500 kilometers to over 1000 kilometers for electric vehicles, indicating a significant advancement in the next-generation lithium battery sector [2][2]. Group 2: Regulatory and Legal Actions - Beijing's market regulatory authority has cracked down on the first case of AI-generated false advertising, where a company misrepresented a product as a treatment for various diseases, highlighting the increasing scrutiny on AI applications in marketing [3][4]. - Singapore's sovereign wealth fund, GIC, has filed a lawsuit against NIO and its executives, alleging securities fraud related to inflated revenue figures through a partnership with CATL, marking a significant legal challenge for the electric vehicle manufacturer [6][7]. Group 3: Market Trends - The international oil prices have dropped significantly, with Brent crude falling to $61.5 per barrel and WTI dipping below $58 per barrel, reflecting a more than 5% decline this month due to oversupply and seasonal demand drops [1][1]. - The stock market showed a mixed performance with coal and semiconductor sectors leading gains, while overall trading volume decreased to 1.93 trillion yuan, indicating a market correction [5][5].

Core Viewpoint - Short-term uncertainties in international trade may lead to market volatility, impacting crude oil prices [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The global economy is experiencing a weak recovery but has not entered a recession [1] - The Federal Reserve's preemptive interest rate cuts provide some liquidity support for crude oil, but are unlikely to reverse the bearish fundamentals in the oil market [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza has reduced geopolitical risk support for oil prices [1] - OPEC+ continues to push for increased oil production, adding pressure on the supply side [1] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is an emerging situation of oversupply in the crude oil market, with seasonal demand decline contributing to this trend [1] - The balance of supply and demand is shifting towards excess supply, which will exert downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's strategic shift in sourcing canola seeds from Australia after imposing significant tariffs on Canadian imports, highlighting the consequences of Canada's miscalculations in its trade relations with China [1][3][5]. Group 1: China's Response to Canada - China has imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian canola seeds, indicating a strong retaliatory measure against Canada's actions [3]. - Following the imposition of tariffs, Chinese state-owned enterprises have placed orders for new season canola seeds from Australia, with availability expected as early as October [7][9]. - The shift in sourcing demonstrates that China's supply needs for canola seeds remain unaffected, leading to a sense of urgency and panic in Canada [9][20]. Group 2: Canada's Miscalculations - Canada's overconfidence in its position, believing that China would not find alternative sources for canola seeds, has led to its current predicament [3][18]. - The deterioration of Sino-Canadian relations is attributed to Canada's alignment with U.S. policies against China, which has resulted in a significant loss of market share for Canadian canola seeds [13][15]. - Canada's failure to recognize the changing dynamics in international trade has resulted in self-inflicted economic consequences [11][31]. Group 3: Australia's Strategic Positioning - Australia has successfully positioned itself to fill the gap left by Canada, having improved its production standards to meet China's import requirements [21][29]. - The recent procurement deal with China, valued at approximately 26 billion yuan (around 50 billion Canadian dollars), represents a significant opportunity for Australia [25][27]. - Australia's proactive approach in preparing for this market entry has allowed it to capitalize on Canada's missteps, enhancing its economic prospects [29][31].

Market Overview - Gold prices experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3320, supported by buying interest despite a decline in safe-haven demand due to a trade agreement between the US and Europe [1] - The price of gold closed at $3336.49, marking a nearly 1% drop over the previous week, which was the third consecutive week of decline [1] - The market is anticipating significant events this week, including international trade developments, central bank interest rate decisions, and key economic data such as the US PCE [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold peaked at $3438.9 before retreating to around $3325, forming a long upper shadow on the candlestick chart, with bearish indicators such as TRIX and MACD suggesting a downward trend [3] - Daily analysis shows gold trading below the mid-band, with KDJ indicators indicating a bearish crossover and MACD lines near the zero axis, reinforcing a bearish outlook [3] - Hourly charts reveal a downward opening of the Bollinger Bands, with KDJ indicators showing a potential short-term bullish crossover, suggesting a slight upward movement may occur, with resistance at $3345 [3] Trading Recommendations - For conservative traders, a sell position is recommended around $3355-$3358 with a stop loss at $3363 and a target profit of $3330-$3325 [5] - For aggressive traders, a buy position is suggested in the range of $3328-$3331 with a stop loss at $3323 and a target profit of $3345-$3350 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices to the 3350 level is attributed to two main factors: optimistic expectations regarding international trade and strong economic data [1][3][5]. Group 1: International Trade Impact - Recent trade negotiations among major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have alleviated concerns about escalating trade tensions, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment [3][4]. - The recovery of China's economy has contributed to positive global economic recovery expectations, resulting in increased risk appetite among investors [3][4]. - As market sentiment becomes more optimistic, funds tend to flow towards risk assets rather than safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to the price decline [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Data Performance - Strong economic data from major economies, including positive U.S. non-farm payroll figures and signs of recovery in manufacturing and services, have bolstered confidence in global economic recovery [4][5]. - Economic performance in other regions, such as China's robust export and manufacturing data and the EU's gradual economic recovery, has further enhanced market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Despite strong economic indicators, gold maintains some support due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, such as unresolved supply chain issues and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Psychology - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold price fluctuations, with a shift towards risk assets occurring as confidence in economic recovery grows [5][6]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when economic recovery signals emerge, leading to a withdrawal of funds from gold [5][6]. - The interplay of market sentiment and economic data is reflected in the recent price adjustments of gold, indicating a temporary market reaction rather than a loss of value [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the interplay of trade dynamics, economic data, investor sentiment, and policy expectations [7]. - Despite the current price retreat, gold's safe-haven attributes remain relevant due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global economic recovery [7].

Market Performance - US stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.04%, while the Nasdaq rose 0.38% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.14%, both reaching new highs [1] - Major tech stocks mostly saw gains, with Google up over 2% and Amazon rising more than 1% [1] - Chinese concept stocks had varied performances, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.28%, while stocks like Huya surged 16%, NIO rose nearly 3%, and Pinduoduo increased over 2%. However, Li Auto fell over 4% and JD.com dropped more than 1% [1] International Trade and Policy - The international trade situation is under scrutiny, as White House Press Secretary Karine Leavitt indicated that President Trump may issue more tariff letters before August 1. She suggested that more trade agreements could be reached before this deadline [1] - Fitch Ratings expressed concerns over US credit outlook, downgrading the outlook for 25% of US industries to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and expectations of prolonged high interest rates [1] Commodity Prices - International gold prices increased, with COMEX gold futures rising by 1.55% to $3410.3 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 2.02% to $39.24 per ounce [2]

Report Information - Report Title: Rapeseed Products Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Xu Fangli [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For rapeseed oil, short - term participation is recommended, and the market's short - term volatility may intensify due to factors such as weather in Canada, MPOB report, US EPA hearing results, and domestic supply - demand situation [9][8] - For rapeseed meal, short - term participation is also recommended, and attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. The market may maintain a volatile trend in the short term influenced by US soybean conditions and domestic supply - demand factors [12][13] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Short - term participation [9] - Market Review: The rapeseed oil futures closed down this week, with the 09 contract closing at 9607 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - Outlook: Canada's rapeseed growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. Rainfall in Canada may ease drought. The MPOB report is bearish, but July 1 - 10 export data provides some support. In China, it's the off - season for oil consumption, supply is ample, and inventory pressure is high, but output pressure weakens, and future imports may be affected [10] Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Short - term participation, focus on Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [12] - Market Review: The rapeseed meal futures closed up this week, with the 09 contract closing at 2633 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton from the previous week [13] - Outlook: US soybean conditions are good, and domestic supply is abundant due to imported soybeans. However, the peak season for aquatic product breeding boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is waiting for Sino - US trade negotiation news [13] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures closed down, total positions were 266,478 lots, a decrease of 57,490 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures closed up, total positions were 555,041 lots, a decrease of 9517 lots from the previous week [19] - The top 20 net long positions in rapeseed oil futures decreased from +24,789 to +15,351, and the top 20 net short positions in rapeseed meal futures decreased from - 4491 to - 1970 [26] Futures Warehouse Receipts - Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 3510 lots, and rapeseed meal registered warehouse receipts were 13,550 lots [32] Spot Price and Basis - In Jiangsu, the spot price of rapeseed oil was 9580 yuan/ton, down from last week, and the basis was +141 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2450 yuan/ton, up slightly from last week, and the basis was - 183 yuan/ton [38][44] Futures Monthly Spread - Rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was +66 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 9 - 1 spread was +310 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [50] Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil and meal 09 contracts was 3.585, and the average spot price ratio was 3.91 [53] Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - Rapeseed - soybean oil 09 contract spread was 1453 yuan/ton (narrowed this week), rapeseed - palm oil 09 contract spread was 757 yuan/ton (significantly narrowed this week). The soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract spread was 343 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 290 yuan/ton as of Thursday [62][68] 3. Industrial Chain Rapeseed - Supply: As of July 4, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 200,000 tons, a 33.33% increase. Estimated arrivals in June, July, and August 2025 were 260,000, 130,000, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 10, the import and pressing profit was +481 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, coastal oil mills' rapeseed pressing volume was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 21,500 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 8.56%. In May 2025, rapeseed imports were 335,500 tons, a 26.12% year - on - year decrease [74][78][82][86] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 859,000 tons, a 2.88% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 111,200 tons, a 20.31% year - on - year decrease [91] - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4,404,000 tons, and as of May 31, catering revenue was 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, the contract volume of domestic imported and pressed rapeseed oil was 146,000 tons, an 8.60% decrease [95][99] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 27th week of 2025, domestic imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory was 5000 tons, a 41.86% decrease. In May 2025, rapeseed meal imports were 194,700 tons, a 36.06% year - on - year decrease [103][107] - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,762,100 tons [111] 4. Options Market - As of July 11, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 18.85%, a 1.63% increase from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [114]