Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets like equities, waiting and seeing. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance Summary - **Financial Market**: In the stock index futures, technology events catalyze the active growth style; the market turnover of index options slightly declines; the bond market of treasury bond futures remains weak. For example, the current price of CSI 300 futures is 4,590 with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures price is 102.362 with a daily decrease of 0.02% [2][7] - **Commodity Market**: Precious metals like COMEX gold and silver have significant increases, with COMEX gold rising 1.57% daily and COMEX silver rising 4.69% daily. In the energy sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil and ICE Brent oil have daily increases of 0.27% and 0.31% respectively, but have declined this year. In the agricultural products sector, CBOT soybeans and other varieties show different trends [2] - **Shipping Market**: The freight rate of container shipping to Europe is under pressure, with a monthly decline of 3.37% [3] Macro - situation Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: Next week, attention should be paid to new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6] - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are worthy of follow - up [6] Asset Views - **Short - term**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold, and be cautious about risk assets like equities next week [6] - **Medium - term (Fourth Quarter)**: Hold the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds, and pay attention to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil [6] View Highlights - **Financial**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in shock, index options to fluctuate, and treasury bond futures to oscillate [7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in shock [7] - **Shipping**: Container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [7] - **Black Building Materials**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to oscillate [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to oscillate, and aluminum is expected to rise in shock [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most varieties are expected to decline in shock, and some varieties such as asphalt and high - sulfur fuel oil are expected to oscillate [9] - **Agriculture**: Most varieties are expected to oscillate, and some varieties such as sugar and paper pulp are expected to decline in shock [9]

Core Insights - The implementation of a series of incremental and stock policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in invoice sales and tax revenue, reflecting a positive trend in China's economy [1][2][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The growth rate of national enterprise sales revenue has shown a steady increase, with quarterly growth rates of 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% from last year's third quarter to this year's third quarter [2]. - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase since February this year, showing year-on-year changes of -0.4%, +2.6%, and +6.9% for the first three quarters [2]. Group 2: Capital Market Performance - Capital market-related tax revenue has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 56.8%, and securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [3]. - The total market value of A-share listed companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan for the first time in August, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [3]. Group 3: Industry and Tax Revenue Growth - The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like railway and aerospace seeing tax revenue growth of 31.5% [4]. - The domestic value-added tax increased by 3.2%, and corporate income tax rose by 4.1%, indicating improved profitability in various industries [4]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The decline in real estate-related tax revenue has narrowed, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, and a reduction of about 5% after accounting for tax incentives [5]. - The implementation of policies to stabilize the real estate market has led to a significant reduction in housing transaction costs, contributing to market stabilization [5]. Group 5: Consumer Activity - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has stimulated consumption, with machinery equipment purchases increasing by 9.7% year-on-year, and high-tech manufacturing equipment purchases rising by 11.8% [5]. - Retail sales of home appliances, such as refrigerators and televisions, have seen substantial growth, with increases of 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a steady recovery in tax revenue and invoice sales in China, indicating a positive economic trend supported by various policies [1][2][3] - Tax revenue from the capital market has shown significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, particularly driven by a 110.5% rise in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The manufacturing sector has demonstrated resilience, with tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, contributing to 31% of total tax revenue and accounting for 48% of the overall revenue increase [2] Group 2 - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies has led to a notable increase in the purchase of machinery and consumer goods, with a 9.7% rise in machinery equipment purchases and a 55.4% increase in retail sales of refrigerators [2] - The real estate sector has seen a reduction in tax revenue decline, attributed to effective policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with nearly 80 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] - The overall tax data reflects the effectiveness of incremental policies focused on stimulating consumption, stabilizing the real estate market, and activating the capital market, as indicated by the steady increase in invoice data and tax revenue [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive growth in tax revenue, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in the third quarter, driven by economic recovery and favorable policies [1][3] - The capital market service sector saw a significant tax revenue increase of 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [2] - The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue, indicating its crucial role in overall economic stability [2] Group 2 - Real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed due to ongoing supportive policies, with a reduction of over 10 percentage points compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [2] - The implementation of a series of incremental policies has led to a steady recovery in invoice sales and tax revenue growth, reflecting improved corporate profitability and consumer activity [3] - The stock market's active trading environment contributed to the increase in tax revenue, with the total market capitalization of A-share companies surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time in August [1][2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's tax revenue and invoice sales are showing steady recovery, reflecting a positive economic trend supported by various policies [1][2][3] - Tax revenue from the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8% in capital market service tax, and a significant rise of 110.5% in securities transaction stamp duty [3] - The real estate sector has seen a narrowing decline in tax revenue, attributed to effective policies aimed at stabilizing the market, with nearly 800 billion RMB in new tax reductions implemented this year [3] Group 2 - Major industries and tax categories are experiencing stable growth, with manufacturing tax revenue increasing by 5.4%, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue [2] - Domestic value-added tax has grown by 3.2%, indicating improved business conditions, while corporate income tax has risen by 4.1%, reflecting better profitability in certain sectors [2] - The consumer market is showing signs of vitality, with significant increases in retail sales of household appliances, such as a 55.4% rise in refrigerator sales and a 35.3% increase in television sales [2]

Core Insights - Tax revenue continues to show growth momentum, with a year-on-year increase of 6.9% in Q3, driven by economic recovery and a lower base from the previous year [1][4] - Cumulative tax revenue for the first eight months of the year reached 12.1085 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase of 0.02% [1] - The capital market has significantly contributed to tax revenue, with a 56.8% year-on-year increase in tax revenue from the capital market service industry [2] Group 1: Tax Revenue Growth - Tax revenue from the capital market service industry increased by 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [2] - The increase in stock market activity, including a total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion yuan and a ten-year high for the Shanghai Composite Index, has positively impacted tax revenue [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector saw a 5.4% year-on-year increase in tax revenue, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue and contributing 48% to overall revenue growth [3] - Real estate-related tax revenue decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed due to policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The steady increase in invoice sales revenue indicates a gradual recovery in corporate performance, with quarterly sales growth rates improving from 0.4% to 4.4% over the past year [3] - The implementation of tax reduction policies has led to a cumulative tax cut of nearly 80 billion yuan, reducing transaction costs in the housing market [3]

Core Insights - The implementation of a series of incremental and stock policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in China's economy [1][2][6] Group 1: Tax Revenue and Economic Indicators - The growth rate of value-added tax invoice sales and tax revenue has shown a steady recovery, reflecting an improving economic operation. From Q3 of last year to Q3 of this year, the quarterly sales revenue growth rates for enterprises were 0.4%, 2.6%, 2.1%, 3.1%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - Tax revenue has turned positive after seven months of negative growth, with a cumulative increase in tax revenue since February this year, showing month-on-month improvement [2] - In Q3, particularly in September, tax revenue growth was notably high, influenced by a narrowing decline in PPI and a low base from the previous year [2] Group 2: Capital Market Performance - Tax revenue related to the capital market has maintained a high growth rate, reflecting active stock market trading. In August, the total market value of A-share companies surpassed 100 trillion yuan, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high in September [3] - The tax revenue from capital market services increased by 56.8% year-on-year, with securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5% [3] - Personal income tax related to stock transfers and dividends also saw significant increases, contributing to a 9.3% year-on-year growth in personal income tax [3] Group 3: Industry and Sector Performance - Major industries and tax categories have shown stable growth, indicating improved business operations and profitability. The manufacturing sector's tax revenue grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accounting for 31% of total tax revenue [4] - High-end manufacturing sectors, such as railway and aerospace, experienced tax revenue growth of 31.5%, while emerging industries like information technology services saw tax revenue increases of 15.3% [4] - Domestic value-added tax grew by 3.2% year-on-year, and corporate income tax increased by 4.1%, reflecting improved profitability in certain sectors [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The decline in tax revenue related to the real estate sector has narrowed, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market. The tax revenue from the real estate sector decreased by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline was less than 5% when accounting for tax incentives [5] - The government has implemented tax reduction measures totaling nearly 80 billion yuan to lower housing transaction costs, contributing to market stabilization [5] Group 5: Consumer Activity and Equipment Upgrades - Nationwide enterprise equipment upgrades have accelerated, supported by policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods. The procurement of machinery and equipment by enterprises increased by 9.7% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing seeing an 11.8% increase [5] - Retail sales of household appliances, such as refrigerators and televisions, experienced significant growth, with increases of 55.4% and 35.3% respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Experts believe that the economy will achieve stable operation throughout the year, with an expected investment total of around 15 trillion yuan and consumption total between 13 trillion to 14 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter [1] Investment and Consumption - There may be incremental policies introduced in areas such as stabilizing investment, consumption, and foreign trade, along with strengthening the execution of existing policies [1] - A combination of fiscal, monetary, and industry policies is expected to be implemented [1] Support Policies - Continuous support policies for large-scale consumption will be promoted in the fourth quarter, with potential for further enhancements [1] - The scope of subsidies for the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement program will be expanded, and the application process will be simplified [1] - Consumption in home appliances and home decoration will be linked, with ongoing promotion of old community renovations [1] New Consumption Highlights - Policies may provide support in areas such as health, medical care, cultural tourism, and digital sectors, potentially including the issuance of consumption vouchers [1] - Active promotion of holiday economy and nighttime economy is anticipated [1]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter is crucial for the completion of annual economic work and planning for the next year's development, with a series of macro policies being implemented at both central and local levels, showing effectiveness [1] Investment and Consumption - It is estimated that a total investment of approximately 15 trillion yuan and consumption between 13 trillion to 14 trillion yuan will be needed in the fourth quarter [1] Policy Measures - Incremental policies may be introduced in areas such as stabilizing investment, consumption, and foreign trade, while existing policies will be reinforced through a combination of fiscal, monetary, and industry policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of existing policies will be a key focus in the near future, supporting economic growth through adjustments in the form, rhythm, and use of these policies [2][17]. Policy Outlook - The newly developed policy financial tools were launched at the end of September, raising market interest in whether additional incremental policies will be introduced, potentially triggering a shift in market style [4]. - Key observations from recent government meetings indicate that there is no immediate demand for aggressive policy adjustments, with a focus on long-term goals rather than short-term economic stimulation [4][7]. - The People's Daily published a series of articles emphasizing the importance of viewing the economic situation holistically, acknowledging the uneven pace of industrial transformation and the need to avoid overreacting to negative sentiments from specific sectors [5][6]. Economic Growth Targets - Achieving the annual GDP growth target of 5% in the fourth quarter is deemed feasible, reducing the necessity for new incremental policies [8]. - The current economic environment allows for a buffer, as the GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, meaning only a 4.6% growth rate is needed in the fourth quarter to meet the target [8][9]. Local Government Financial Pressure - Local government financial pressures have eased compared to last year, with a shift in focus towards debt resolution rather than aggressive infrastructure investment, which diminishes the demand for central government funding [9]. Consumer and Export Dynamics - Despite high base pressures on consumption and exports, internal economic resilience remains strong, suggesting that the need for new incremental policies is low [11]. - Recent data indicates that consumer spending during the National Day holiday showed a year-on-year increase, with service consumption driving growth [11]. - Export resilience is noted, with China's share in global exports increasing, despite challenges from high base effects in the previous year [13]. Policy Adjustments - Future policy focus will be on optimizing existing measures rather than introducing new ones, with changes in monetary policy expected to be more gradual [14][18]. - Fiscal policy will see adjustments in the timing of local government debt issuance and the acceleration of new policy financial tools to support project capital [19]. - Consumer support policies are shifting from product subsidies to service and livelihood support, reflecting a long-term strategy to boost domestic demand [20][21]. Reform Focus - Current policy emphasis is on deepening reforms, including the establishment of a unified market and market-oriented reforms for factors of production, which are expected to enhance overall economic growth potential [22].