01 何立峰：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的金融支持 全国金融系统工作会议12月12日在京召开。中共中央政治局委员、中央金融委员会办公室主任何立峰出席会议并讲话。他强调，金融系统要深入学习贯彻中央 经济工作会议精神，准确把握经济工作面临的形势和主要目标任务，坚定做好金融工作的信心和决心，坚持防风险、强监管、促高质量发展工作主线，有力有 序有效做好2026年金融重点工作。要继续着力做好防范化解地方中小金融机构风险、房地产企业涉金融风险、地方政府融资平台金融债务风险工作，严控增 量、妥处存量、严防"爆雷"，严厉打击非法金融活动。要进一步巩固和强化金融监管，完善重点领域监管制度体系并严格落实，持续强化金融机构合规意识和 风险意识，不断提升监管能力，严肃开展金融风险追责问责。要全力以赴推动高质量发展，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加强对扩大内需、科技创新、中 小微企业等重点领域的金融支持，稳步有序推进金融改革开放，做好预期管理。 02 中央财办韩文秀：明年将根据形势变化出台增量政策 12月13日，中国国际经济交流中心举办了2025—2026中国经济年会。中央财经委员会办 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected total economic output of around 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate growth based on changing circumstances [2][5][17]. Economic Performance - The year 2023 is highlighted as significant for China's modernization, with major economic indicators exceeding expectations, and a projected growth rate of around 5% [4][5]. - China's economic resilience is demonstrated through stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and advancements in modern industrial systems, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [4][5]. Policy Measures - In 2024, the government will implement incremental policies alongside existing measures to enhance economic stability and growth [6][7]. - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, with a focus on sustainable financial practices and enhancing local fiscal capabilities [8][9]. Five Musts for Economic Work - The government emphasizes five essential strategies for economic work: 1. Fully explore economic potential by expanding consumption and investment [11]. 2. Combine policy support with reform innovation to address intertwined economic issues [11]. 3. Balance deregulation with effective management to enhance productivity [11]. 4. Invest in both physical and human capital to promote comprehensive development [12]. 5. Strengthen internal capabilities to face external challenges [13]. Trade and Open Economy - The government plans to deepen the construction of a unified national market and address issues like corporate debt [15]. - There will be a focus on expanding both exports and imports to promote sustainable foreign trade development [15]. Income and Consumption - The government aims to synchronize income growth with economic growth, with initiatives to boost consumer spending and enhance the quality of goods and services [17]. - Policies will be implemented to support flexible employment and improve job quality for key demographics [17]. Green Development - Green development is identified as a cornerstone of high-quality growth, with plans to advance energy construction and carbon emission controls [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators have performed better than expected, with the economy projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, following significant growth milestones in previous years [1]. - The fixed asset investment growth rate turned negative in September, with a further decline in October, influenced by factors such as the real estate market adjustment and increased domestic competition [3][4]. Policy Measures - The government plans to implement incremental policies in response to changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing policies to promote economic stability and growth [1]. - Key tasks for next year include prioritizing domestic demand and building a strong domestic market, with a focus on enhancing consumption and investment [2][3]. Investment Opportunities - There is significant investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and infrastructure, with current per capita infrastructure capital only at 20-30% of that in developed countries [4]. - The government aims to increase central budget investment and implement major projects to stimulate fixed asset investment and private sector engagement [4][6]. Risk Management - Emphasis is placed on managing risks in key areas, including local government debt, with measures to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth based on evolving circumstances [1][3]. Economic Performance - The year 2025 is significant for China's modernization, with major economic indicators exceeding expectations. The economy is projected to grow around 5%, maintaining China's position as the largest engine of global economic growth [2]. - The economy has shown resilience and vitality, with stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and significant advancements in modern industrial systems, particularly in AI, biomedicine, and robotics [2]. Policy Implementation - In 2024, a series of policies will be introduced to enhance economic stability, focusing on the integration of existing and new policies to promote steady economic growth [4]. - The government aims to maintain a balance between fiscal deficits and debt levels while implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to support domestic demand [9]. Risk Management - Progress has been made in mitigating risks in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [5]. Economic Strategy - The government emphasizes five key strategies for economic work: 1. Fully explore economic potential by expanding consumption and investment [6]. 2. Combine policy support with reform innovation to address intertwined economic issues [6]. 3. Ensure effective regulation while promoting market-driven resource allocation [7]. 4. Invest in both physical and human capital to enhance overall development [8]. 5. Strengthen internal capabilities to face external challenges [8]. Trade and Innovation - The government plans to promote both exports and imports, encouraging service exports and developing digital and green trade to ensure sustainable foreign trade growth [10]. - The focus will be on innovation-driven growth, with efforts to expand major international science and technology innovation centers to foster original innovation [11]. Consumer and Education Policies - Policies will be implemented to boost consumer spending, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services and optimizing the consumption environment for inbound tourism [12]. - Education policies will aim to increase high school enrollment and improve the quality of higher education to adapt to demographic changes [14]. Green Development - The government will accelerate the construction of a new energy system and expand the application of green electricity, marking a transition towards carbon emission control [16].

2025.12. 13 本文字数：3133，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 一财资讯 12月13日，2025-2026中国经济年会在中国国际经济交流中心举办，中央财办分管日常工作的副主 任、中央农办主任韩文秀表示，2025年我国主要经济指标表现好于预期，经济总量预计达到140万 亿元左右。2026年还将根据形势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，推动经济稳中向好。 我国主要经济指标表现好于预期 韩文秀表示，今年是中国式现代化进程中具有重要意义的一年，是很不平凡的一年。全年经济社会发 展主要预期目标将顺利实现，"十四五"即将圆满收官。一年来，我国经济顶压前行，向新向优发展， 展现出了强大的韧性和活力。主要经济指标表现好于预期，许多机构预测，全年经济增长5%左右， 我国仍然是全球经济增长的最大引擎。就业形势总体稳定，外贸较快增长，出口多元化成效明显，现 代化产业体系建设加快推进。新质生产力稳步发展，人工智能、生物医药、机器人等研发和应用处在 全球第一梯队。改革开放迈出新步伐。纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，综合整治内卷式竞争，光伏等 行业的供求关系和价格走势出现积极的变化，资本市场交投活跃，国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan for 2025, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][3]. Economic Performance - Major economic indicators in China are showing better-than-expected results, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [2]. - The economy has demonstrated resilience and vitality, with stable employment, rapid growth in foreign trade, and significant advancements in modern industrial systems [2]. Economic Projections - The GDP is expected to reach around 140 trillion yuan this year, marking a significant milestone in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3]. - International institutions, including the IMF and Goldman Sachs, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for the next two years [3]. Policy Implementation - In 2024, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, aiming to synergize existing and new policies to promote stable economic growth [4]. Risk Mitigation - Positive progress has been made in mitigating risks in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [5]. Economic Work Guidelines - The central economic work meeting outlined five essential principles for economic work under new circumstances, emphasizing the need to explore economic potential, combine policy support with reform, and ensure effective management [6][7][8]. Income and Economic Growth - In 2026, efforts will focus on synchronizing income growth with economic growth, maintaining stability in employment and prices, and implementing proactive fiscal policies [9]. Trade and Openness - China aims to expand both exports and imports, promoting sustainable foreign trade and enhancing service sector openness [10]. Innovation and Technology - The focus will be on innovation-driven growth, with plans to expand international science and technology innovation centers to foster original innovation [11]. Consumer Market Development - Policies will be optimized to stimulate consumption, including enhancing the supply of quality goods and services and improving the inbound consumption environment [12]. Corporate Debt Management - Measures will be taken to address corporate debt issues and ensure a healthy market order through regulatory actions [13]. Education and Employment - There will be an increase in high school enrollment and quality university admissions to adapt to demographic changes and improve employment quality [14]. Green Energy Initiatives - The construction of a new energy system will be accelerated, with a focus on expanding green electricity applications and promoting carbon emission control [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to perform better than anticipated in 2025, with a projected GDP of approximately 140 trillion yuan, and policies will be implemented in 2026 to further stimulate economic growth [1][2]. Economic Performance - The overall economic indicators for this year are expected to meet targets, with a growth rate of around 5%, making China the largest engine of global economic growth [1]. - The International Monetary Fund and other institutions have raised their forecasts for China's economic growth for the next two years [1]. Policy Implementation - In 2026, new incremental policies will be introduced based on changing circumstances, focusing on maintaining stable economic growth, employment, and price stability [2]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented to enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic governance [2]. Consumer Market - The "old for new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching nearly 60% by November [3]. - Plans to enhance consumer spending include implementing a rural income increase plan and improving basic pensions for urban and rural residents [3]. Investment Expansion - There is substantial investment potential in urbanization, technological innovation, and social welfare improvements, with plans to increase central budget investment and optimize local government bond usage [4]. - Measures will be taken to stimulate private investment and shift fixed asset investment towards stabilization [4]. Technological Innovation - The establishment of major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area has made significant progress [5]. - Support for basic research and the development of new technologies will be prioritized, alongside enhancing intellectual property protection [6]. Market Regulation - The government will continue to promote a unified national market and regulate local government economic activities, including a list of encouraged and prohibited investment practices [7]. - Efforts will be made to improve the business environment and deepen reforms to attract foreign investment [8]. Environmental Initiatives - The government aims to achieve carbon peak and promote green energy sources, with a focus on energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries [10]. - Plans include the establishment of zero-carbon parks and factories to foster sustainable development [10]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment policies will be prioritized to address the current supply-demand imbalance in the job market, with measures to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [11]. - Strategies will be implemented to prevent the emergence of hidden debts and ensure financial stability [11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that China's major economic indicators are expected to perform better than anticipated, with the economy projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan by 2025, and outlines plans for incremental policies to support economic stability and growth in the coming years [1][3][4]. Economic Performance - The year is highlighted as significant for China's modernization process, with expectations to achieve major social and economic development goals, including a projected economic growth rate of around 5% [3]. - China's economy has shown resilience and vitality, with stable employment and rapid growth in foreign trade, particularly in diversified exports [3]. - International organizations, including the IMF, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China for the next two years [3]. Policy Implementation - The government plans to maintain stable economic growth, employment, and price levels while promoting income growth alongside economic expansion [5]. - A more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy will continue, with an emphasis on the integration of existing and new policies to enhance economic stability [6]. Consumption and Investment - The article discusses the importance of domestic demand, with initiatives like the "old-for-new" consumption policy driving sales growth in related sectors [8]. - There is a focus on increasing investment in urbanization, technological innovation, and improving living standards, with plans to raise the scale of central budget investments [9]. Innovation and Entrepreneurship - The government aims to strengthen the role of leading venture capital institutions and technology enterprises, supporting innovation and the application of new technologies [11]. - A comprehensive plan for education and talent development in technology is to be established, alongside measures to protect intellectual property in emerging fields [11]. Market Regulation - The article mentions the need for a unified national market and the establishment of guidelines for local government investment promotion, aiming to create a fair competitive environment [13]. - There will be efforts to deepen reforms in state-owned enterprises and improve regulations to support the private economy [14]. Trade and Foreign Investment - The government plans to expand both exports and imports, promoting sustainable foreign trade development and enhancing the "Invest in China" brand [16][17]. - Continuous optimization of the business environment and reforms to encourage foreign investment are also highlighted [17]. Environmental Goals - The article outlines plans for a green transition, including measures to achieve carbon peak and promote new energy sources like hydrogen and green fuels [21]. Employment and Risk Management - Employment is emphasized as a key priority, with policies aimed at stabilizing job markets and addressing risks in the real estate sector [23]. - The government will focus on managing local government debt risks and preventing the emergence of hidden debts [23].

从成交量来看，今年以来，核心城市在优质项目带动下新房成交量保持平稳；1至11月重点30城二手住 宅成交套数同比小幅增长。 土地方面，2025年，各地保持"缩量提质"供地策略。根据中指数据，1至11月，300城住宅用地成交规划 建筑面积同比下降15.8%。房企拿地进一步向核心城市聚焦，北上深杭等城市土拍(土地使用权出让)热 度较高，带动1至11月一二线城市土地出让收入同比增长4%。 展望明年，报告认为，更多增量政策或将在"十五五"开局之年加速落地，政策力度也有望进一步加大。 具体来看，北上深等城市限制性购房政策具备进一步优化空间。同时，各地或继续通过降低房贷利率、 降低中介费率、加大房贷利息抵扣个税力度等方式降低购房成本。 报告称，根据"中国房地产业中长期发展动态模型"测算，中性情形下，预计2026年全国新建商品房销售 面积同比降幅较今年有所收窄，市场分化态势延续，"好城市 好房子"仍具备结构性机会。在控增量、 优存量政策导向下，供给端缩量将有助于市场库存下降，推动供求关系改善。(完) 中指研究院11日在北京发布的《中国房地产市场2025总结&2026展望》报告显示，2025年，中国房地产 市场整体延续调整态势 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Framework - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations to ensure smooth economic operation[2] - The meeting suggests a combination of "mandatory options + optional options" in macroeconomic policy, indicating a relatively stable approach to mandatory macro policies while allowing for counter-cyclical adjustments as needed[3] - The integration of stock and incremental policies is highlighted, with a commitment to continue implementing a more proactive fiscal policy while maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and total debt levels[3] Group 2: Consumer and Market Dynamics - Consumption is prioritized over investment in policy discussions, with specific measures to enhance consumer capacity, including the implementation of urban and rural resident income increase plans[4] - The meeting calls for the expansion of quality goods and services supply and the removal of unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential[4] - The focus on addressing "involution" competition indicates a recognition of deeper structural issues, requiring comprehensive solutions rather than superficial capacity clearing[4] Group 3: Taxation and Industry Support - The meeting proposes to improve the local tax system, addressing the decline in local tax revenue share in fiscal income and expenditure, with potential adjustments to shared tax ratios to stabilize local government finances[5] - Specific industries are identified for targeted support, including artificial intelligence, digital trade, and green trade, aiming to create a favorable policy environment for development[5] - Employment remains a top priority in social policy, with a focus on stabilizing job opportunities for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers[5] Group 4: Risk Management - The meeting emphasizes risk prevention, particularly in the real estate sector and local government debt, encouraging the acquisition of existing residential properties for affordable housing[6] - The report highlights potential risks including policy changes, unexpected economic fluctuations, and delays in updating research information[6]