Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a paradigm shift in asset pricing and investment management, moving from traditional models to a more dynamic and adaptive approach that considers the non-linear relationships between assets and their roles within a portfolio [4][11][18]. Group 1: Asset Pricing Theory - Traditional asset pricing theories, such as the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), are based on strict assumptions of market efficiency and rational investors, which fail to explain market anomalies like momentum and value effects [4][12]. - The article argues that asset prices are influenced not only by their expected returns and risks but also by their roles in the overall investment portfolio and the dynamic relationships with other assets [4][11]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The new investment philosophy focuses on systematically and proactively enhancing the risk-adjusted returns of investment portfolios rather than merely seeking absolute returns [4][11]. - The investment framework proposed is not about finding the "true value" of assets but about creating an adaptive system that can achieve stable growth across different market environments [7][16]. Group 3: Multi-Asset Allocation - The article discusses the importance of low correlation among assets in a multi-asset allocation strategy, which can significantly reduce the probability of negative monthly returns [22][23]. - A two-stage strategy combining CPPI (Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance) and risk budgeting is suggested to enhance traditional methodologies and improve risk-adjusted returns [17][23]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The article highlights that the correlation between assets is dynamic and can change with market conditions, which poses risks to traditional asset allocation frameworks that rely on historical data [12][15]. - The concept of "free lunch" in asset allocation, derived from low correlation, may diminish as market environments evolve, necessitating a deeper understanding of the underlying factors driving asset correlations [15][18]. Group 5: Future of Asset Pricing - The future of asset pricing is seen as a transition from a focus on historical data to an understanding of technological trends, industry changes, and collective human behavior [34]. - The new asset pricing framework is described as a three-dimensional investment model centered around technological advancement, new productive forces, and consensus-driven narratives [18][28].

Group 1: National Day Consumption - Travel remains resilient, but growth rate slows compared to the May Day holiday, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow during the first five days of the holiday, down from 7.9% during the May Day holiday [2][4] - The growth rate for long-distance travel by rail and civil aviation is low, both below 4%, while waterway and outbound travel show higher growth rates, with waterway passenger transport up 8.7% and international flights up 11.7% [4][17] - Retail sales growth is low at 3.3% year-on-year, indicating potential pressure on October's retail sales, with significant growth in home appliances and green food consumption [5][20][22] - Food prices remain stable, while service prices show mixed trends, with airfares rising by 9.2% and hotel prices varying significantly between first-tier and third/fourth-tier cities [6][24][25] - The film box office is down 19.2% year-on-year, potentially due to scheduling issues, despite some popular films performing well in previous months [7][27] Group 2: Weekly Economic Observation - The Huachuang macroeconomic WEI index has declined to 6.65%, down 2.12 percentage points from the previous week, but remains at a high level [29] - Durable goods consumption shows a decline in passenger car retail, with a year-on-year decrease of 2% reported [10][34] - Subway passenger transport growth has turned negative, with a 9.5% year-on-year decline reported in early October [11][34] - Oil prices have dropped significantly, with WTI crude oil at $61.69 per barrel, down 6.1% [12][52] - The new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan is being actively promoted to support project capital [54][55]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the Calmar Ratio as a key reference indicator for selecting funds, highlighting its role in assessing risk-adjusted returns [2][4]. Summary by Sections Basic Screening - The Calmar Ratio is defined as the annualized return divided by the maximum drawdown, with a higher ratio indicating better risk-adjusted returns [4]. - Initial screening can involve setting the Calmar Ratio as the first criterion, focusing on funds with a ratio greater than 1 to avoid those with unfavorable risk-return profiles [6]. - Comparing funds within the same category using the Calmar Ratio helps identify those with superior risk management and return generation capabilities [8]. - Evaluating the Calmar Ratio during bear markets can reveal funds that maintain high ratios, indicating strong risk control [10]. Advanced Analysis - Combining the Calmar Ratio with the Sharpe Ratio allows for a comprehensive assessment of a fund's risk-return characteristics, focusing on extreme risks versus daily volatility [12]. - The Calmar Ratio serves as a litmus test for assessing a fund manager's risk management skills, with a consistently high ratio reflecting a disciplined investment approach [14]. - The maximum drawdown is crucial for understanding an investor's psychological comfort level, with a higher Calmar Ratio suggesting a better holding experience [16]. Strategy Application - For systematic investment plans, prioritizing funds with high Calmar Ratios can reduce psychological stress during market downturns while ensuring decent returns during upswings [19]. - In constructing a fund portfolio, including high Calmar Ratio funds can stabilize overall portfolio performance and reduce volatility [22]. - The Calmar Ratio can help identify "pseudo" high-yield funds that may carry hidden risks, allowing investors to avoid those with unsustainable returns [24]. - Regular monitoring of the Calmar Ratio for held funds can provide early warnings of deteriorating risk-return profiles, prompting timely adjustments [27].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of a scientific selection logic for mutual funds, focusing on historical performance, fund managers, and Sharpe ratio to avoid pitfalls and identify potential funds [1][12]. Selection Criteria - Prioritize funds that have been established for over three years to ensure they have undergone a complete market cycle [3]. - Equity funds should demonstrate resilience through market fluctuations, as new funds lack historical data for evaluation [3]. - Funds ranked in the top 25% of their category serve as a benchmark for selection [3]. Performance Analysis - A case study illustrates a consumer-themed fund that outperformed the market during downturns and rebounded strongly, showcasing its defensive and offensive capabilities [4]. - Data from Wind indicates that funds consistently ranked in the top 25% over five years have a 78% probability of outperforming the market in the subsequent three years [4]. Fund Manager Evaluation - Fund managers with experience spanning two market cycles are preferred, as their track record reflects their ability to navigate different market conditions [5]. - For stock fund managers, an annualized return of over 15% is considered excellent, while bond fund managers should aim for 5%-8% with minimal drawdowns [7]. Investment Style and Market Compatibility - Investment style should align with the investor's risk tolerance, with value-oriented managers favoring low-turnover blue-chip stocks and growth-oriented managers focusing on high-volatility sectors [8]. - The Morningstar rating system can be used to identify funds consistently performing in the top 25% over three to five years [9]. Market Resilience - The ability of a fund to withstand bear markets is more critical than its performance in bull markets, with a focus on funds that exhibit lower drawdowns during market declines [9]. - Historical data suggests that funds managed by experienced managers outperform those managed by newer managers by an average of 3.2 percentage points over five years [10]. Risk-Return Assessment - The Sharpe ratio is a key metric for evaluating risk-adjusted returns, with a ratio above 1 indicating excellent performance [12]. - A comprehensive assessment should include maximum drawdown alongside the Sharpe ratio, aiming for a combination of a high Sharpe ratio and low drawdown [14]. Characteristics of Quality Funds - Quality funds typically maintain a Sharpe ratio above 1.5 and a maximum drawdown below 15% [15]. - Historical performance is a testament to past strength, while fund managers are crucial for long-term returns, and the Sharpe ratio serves as a risk-reward benchmark [15].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that understanding volatility is crucial for becoming an excellent investor, as it is a tangible risk rather than a mere psychological issue [8][40]. Academic Perspective: Volatility = Risk - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, indicating that returns should be assessed in relation to the risks taken [10]. - Traditional financial theories define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [11]. - Historical examples illustrate that even if an investor believes in a company's future recovery, immediate financial needs can force them to sell at a loss due to volatility [12]. - The article argues that higher volatility necessitates higher expected returns as compensation, exemplified by the comparison of different funds and their respective drawdowns during market adjustments [14][15]. Practical Perspective: Volatility ≠ Risk - Warren Buffett's perspective is presented, asserting that volatility does not equate to risk; instead, the true risk is the permanent loss of capital [18][21]. - Buffett emphasizes that good companies can have high volatility without being poor investments, while low volatility can accompany poor business performance [19]. - The article notes that Buffett's views on volatility have evolved, initially seeing it as a source of profit but later recognizing it as a neutral concept [23][26]. Trading Perspective: Volatility = Return - The article discusses how risk-averse investors dislike volatility, while risk-seeking investors view it as an opportunity for returns [28][30]. - It explains that volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting this dynamic [31][32]. - The article highlights that different trading strategies exist based on attitudes towards volatility, such as trend trading and grid trading, each with its own risk and return profiles [36][38]. Conclusion - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, prompting investors to distinguish between what can be controlled and what cannot, as well as what can be judged and what cannot [44].

Core Insights - The article discusses the effectiveness of Volatility-Managed Portfolios (VMP) in the Chinese stock market, highlighting their ability to mitigate risks while capturing investment opportunities [1][3][5]. Group 1: Performance of Volatility-Managed Portfolios - A total of 71 factor strategies were tested, with 55 showing positive excess returns after volatility management, and 33 of these being statistically significant [2]. - In terms of risk-adjusted performance, 47 factor combinations improved their Sharpe ratios post-volatility management, with 15 showing significant enhancement [2]. - The excess returns were primarily concentrated in three categories: value, profitability, and trading friction, indicating that volatility management enhances traditional stock selection logic [2]. Group 2: Market Characteristics and Volatility Management - The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock market, such as limited arbitrage opportunities and the daily price limit system, create an environment where volatility management can thrive [3][4]. - The high proportion of retail investors in the Chinese market leads to emotional trading behaviors, which volatility management counters by adjusting positions based on market sentiment [4][6]. - The dynamic adjustment of risk exposure in response to market conditions allows volatility management to perform better during periods of market turmoil, as evidenced during the initial COVID-19 market shocks [7][10]. Group 3: Broader Implications for Management - The principles of volatility management can be applied beyond investing, offering valuable insights for corporate management in navigating uncertainties [9][10]. - Companies that adapt their strategies based on market volatility, rather than rigidly adhering to predictions, tend to perform better during crises [10][11]. - The article emphasizes that managing risk effectively can lead to better survival rates in both investment and corporate contexts, highlighting the importance of flexibility in decision-making [11][12].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of financial education in protecting financial rights and enhancing quality of life, particularly in the context of the fund industry taking action during the 2025 Financial Education Promotion Week [1] - It discusses the composition of fund returns, highlighting that fund returns consist of benchmark returns and excess returns (α), with a benchmark return of 10% and an excess return of 8% leading to a total fund return of 18% [3][4] - The article explains that known declines are not risks; rather, uncertainty (volatility) is what constitutes risk in investments [3] Group 2 - It introduces the concept of "Sharpe Ratio" as a key metric for evaluating the risk-return profile of funds, defined as (Fund Return - Risk-Free Return) / Volatility, indicating a higher investment "cost-performance" ratio with a higher Sharpe Ratio [5] - The article also presents the "Information Ratio" as a measure of a fund manager's ability to generate excess returns relative to the benchmark, calculated as Excess Return (α) / Tracking Error, with a higher Information Ratio indicating better sustainable enhancement effects [6][7] - Understanding these five key metrics helps investors comprehend what they are earning, where risks originate, and the investment cost-performance ratio, facilitating rational decision-making in investments [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of stock strategy products in the context of increased market volatility due to tariffs, policy shifts, and geopolitical conflicts, emphasizing the importance of the Sharpe ratio as a measure of risk-adjusted returns [1][18]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Performance - Over the past three years, the average Sharpe ratio for stock strategy products was 0.69, with an average return of 64.17%. Among 1,723 products, 333 had a Sharpe ratio greater than 1, representing 19.33% of the total [1]. Top Products by Size Categories - **100 Billion and Above**: - The top product was "Junzhijian Junxin" managed by Zhang Youjun and Zhang Yichi, achieving a Sharpe ratio of *** and a return of ***% [4]. - Seven out of ten top products were subjective long strategies, with Junzhijian Investment holding half of the top spots [4]. - **50-100 Billion**: - "Pingfanghe Caiying Balanced No. 1 B Class" from Pingfanghe Investment topped this category with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [6][7]. - Six out of ten products were subjective long strategies, with two products each from Qianhai Bopu Asset and Kaishi Private Equity [6]. - **20-50 Billion**: - "Anzi Geek Multi-Strategy No. 1 A Class" managed by Li Jing was the top performer with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [10]. - Four subjective long and four quantitative long products made the top ten list [10]. - **10-20 Billion**: - "Jilu No. 11" from Jilu Asset achieved the highest return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [12]. - The top three products were all quantitative long strategies [12]. - **5-10 Billion**: - "Beiheng No. 2" managed by Zhou Yixing led this category with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [14]. - All top eight products were subjective long strategies [13]. - **0-5 Billion**: - The highest entry threshold was noted in this category, with "Saisuo Stable Profit No. 1" leading with a return of ***% and a Sharpe ratio of *** [15][16]. - Seven out of ten products were subjective long strategies [15].

Core Viewpoint - Volatility is not risk itself; the true risk is "permanent loss." However, volatility manifests as risk, triggering investor fear and behavioral biases, turning risk into reality and providing opportunities for counterparties to profit [4][38]. Group 1: Perspectives on Volatility - Three views on volatility have emerged: 1. Risk-averse investors see volatility as risk that needs to be avoided [5]. 2. Risk-seeking investors view volatility as a source of returns that should be embraced [6]. 3. Value investors consider volatility to be neutral, with investment risk stemming solely from operational risks leading to permanent losses [7][39]. Group 2: Academic Perspective - The Sharpe Ratio, a key metric for assessing fund performance, emphasizes that returns should be evaluated against the risks taken to achieve them [17]. - Traditional financial theories, such as Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory, define risk as the uncertainty of future returns, represented by price volatility [18]. - Historical price fluctuations can create a false sense of security, as investors may not recognize the potential for future losses during periods of volatility [19][20]. Group 3: Practical Perspective - Warren Buffett has explicitly rejected the notion that volatility equates to risk, emphasizing that the most significant risk is the permanent loss of capital [24][26]. - Buffett's investment philosophy focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, viewing short-term volatility as mere "noise" that does not pose a substantial threat unless forced to sell at a loss [27]. Group 4: Trading Perspective - The view that "volatility equals returns" stems from the fact that many investors dislike uncertainty and volatility, particularly large funds [29]. - High volatility assets often trade at a discount, reflecting the risk aversion of investors, while the actual risk remains objectively present [30][31]. - Volatility can be treated as a tradable commodity, with strategies like options trading reflecting the relationship between volatility and risk [32][33]. Group 5: Nature of Volatility - Volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, reminding investors of the constant changes and the need to distinguish between what can and cannot be controlled [42].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between volatility and risk, emphasizing that while volatility is often equated with risk, it can also represent potential returns depending on the investor's perspective [6][34]. Group 1: Academic Perspective on Volatility - Volatility is defined as risk in traditional finance, where it represents the uncertainty of future returns [7][9]. - The Sharpe Ratio is highlighted as a key metric for evaluating fund performance, taking into account the risk taken to achieve returns [8][10]. - Historical volatility is used to quantify risk, with higher volatility indicating greater risk and necessitating higher expected returns [11][12]. Group 2: Practical Perspective on Volatility - Warren Buffett and other value investors argue against equating volatility with risk, focusing instead on the risk of permanent capital loss [15][18]. - The article presents a dichotomy where risk-averse investors view volatility as something to avoid, while risk-seeking investors see it as an opportunity for profit [23][34]. - Different investment strategies are discussed, including those that embrace volatility for potential gains, such as grid trading and trend trading [31][32]. Group 3: Trading Perspective on Volatility - Volatility can be viewed as a tradable commodity, with options pricing reflecting historical volatility [26][27]. - The article explains that risk is a commodity that can be bought and sold, with different strategies catering to varying attitudes towards volatility [25][28]. - The concept of "volatility = returns" is explored, indicating that higher volatility can lead to greater profit opportunities for certain investors [22][24]. Group 4: Conclusion on Volatility - The article concludes that volatility is an inherent aspect of the financial world, influencing investor behavior and creating opportunities for profit [39][40]. - It emphasizes the importance of understanding what can be controlled and what cannot in the context of volatility and investment strategies [38][39].