Market Outlook - The report emphasizes a preference for large-cap stocks in December, suggesting a potential shift from growth to value investing as the market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and significant domestic meetings at year-end [1][11] - Historical data indicates that from 2015 to 2024, large-cap stocks have shown a higher probability of outperforming small-cap stocks in December, with a 70% success rate for large-cap over small-cap [12][14] Liquidity and Capital Supply - The report anticipates stable net inflows of incremental capital in December, with foreign capital activity expected to increase [3][20] - The People's Bank of China has indicated a supportive monetary policy stance, which is likely to maintain a reasonable liquidity level in the market [20][21] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as banking, textiles, and petrochemicals are expected to perform well, while sectors that previously saw significant gains, like technology and automotive, may underperform [2][3] - The report highlights that sectors related to AI and technology are likely to attract new capital due to the issuance of several technology-focused funds in December [11][35] Investment Recommendations - Recommended indices for December include the CSI 300, STAR Market 50, low-volatility dividend indices, and technology indices related to Hong Kong stocks [12][11] - The report suggests that the performance of the CSI 300 and dividend indices is likely to be stronger in the latter half of December, coinciding with the earnings forecast period for listed companies [17][18]

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 港股通红利低波ETF基金（159118）紧密跟踪标普港股通低波红利指数，成分股偏向大盘价值风 格，助力投资者低费率（管理费+托管费仅0.2%）、高效率（T+0交易）一键布局港股+红利+低波，此 外，港股通红利低波ETF基金可每季度进行评估及收益分配，在符合基金分红条件下，可安排收益分 配。 每日经济新闻 12月1日，A股主要指数上行，港股通红利低波ETF基金（159118）震荡上涨超0.9%，持仓股江西 铜业股份涨超8%，九龙仓置业、招商局港口、波司登等跟涨。 招商证券分析称，进入12月后，市场交易核心将围绕美联储议息会议和国内年底重要会议两个因素 展开，综合考虑季节性因素、国内外部流动性变化、增量资金变化等因素，12月风格更推荐大盘风格， 可能先成长后价值。 ...

Key Points - MSCI announced the inclusion of 26 new Chinese stocks and the removal of 20 stocks from the MSCI China Index, effective after the market close on November 24, 2025 [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China have included electronic savings bonds in the scope of personal pension products to support the development of a multi-tiered pension insurance system [3] - Sixteen hard technology-themed funds have been approved, including seven AI ETFs and three chip ETFs, indicating an influx of capital into the sector [4] - The first large-capacity all-solid-state battery production line in China has been completed, with plans for small-scale production tests and a target for mass production between 2027 and 2030 [5] - Alibaba and Meituan are set to release their financial reports on November 25 and November 28, respectively, along with reports from leading electric vehicle companies [6][7] - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book this week, with expectations of interest rate decisions from New Zealand and South Korea [8] Company News - Hillstone Networks expects to achieve large-scale sales and product delivery of its new generation security products equipped with ASIC chips by Q1 2026 [10] - Zhongjin Lingnan plans to acquire a 6.7784% stake in Zhongjin Copper and a 10.3333% stake in Zhongjin Rongsheng for a total consideration of 742 million yuan [11] - Jinfeng Technology is planning to acquire at least a 51% stake in Guangdong Lanyuan Technology, which will enhance its growth and profitability [12] - Nenghui Technology signed a contract for a new energy power battery assembly with an estimated total price of 100 million yuan [13] - JinkoSolar announced the mass production of its Tiger Neo 3.0 module, achieving a production efficiency of over 24.8% and a total order of 15 GW [14] - Qingmu Technology's subsidiary plans to acquire control of Vitalis, enhancing its competitiveness in the health supplement sector [16] - Jiahua Technology is planning to acquire a controlling stake in Shudun Technology, with stock suspension expected [17] Market Insights - China Merchants Securities maintains a cautious outlook, citing weak trading signals and mixed fundamental indicators [19] - CITIC Securities notes the market is in a "three-phase overlap," suggesting a wait-and-see approach until key economic meetings in December [20]

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 11 月 23 日 维持观望，大盘风格或仍将占优 2. 市场最新观点 风险提示：择时和风格轮动模型结论基于合理假设前提下结合历史数据统计规 律推导而出，市场环境变化下可能导致出现模型失效风险。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 王武蕾 S1090519080001 wangwulei@cmschina.com.cn 王禹哲 S1090525080001 wangyuzhe@cmschina.com.cn ❑ 择时观点上，本周继续维持震荡观望的判断，核心原因有三点，较前期有所 扩充：一是交易维度信号偏弱，目前全市场 Beta 离散度上行、PB 分化度下 行、全 A 交易量能下行，三者均给出偏向谨慎信号。简而言之，即市场缺乏 交易主线，未能形成新的趋势。二是基本面维度有喜有忧，即中上游景气度 回升较为明显，但下游景气度以及信贷数据不及预期。三是全球流动性风险 仍未解除，上周市场回调的主要原因在于美联储 12 月降息预期显著回落导 致全球流动性收缩，虽然周五美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯表示"近期内有进 一步调整利率的空间"，带动美股企稳，但当前美联储内部分歧仍较大，在 12 月 ...

- The report introduces a quantitative model for evaluating equity funds' performance. The model uses 22 benchmark indices as independent variables and fund returns as dependent variables. A univariate linear regression is conducted for each index, and the rolling window regression is applied with a 6-month window to calculate the R² matrix for each fund. The index with the highest average R² over the last six periods is selected as the performance reference index. The corresponding regression equation result is used as the performance outcome [16][17] - The report evaluates the overall strategy of public equity funds by analyzing the goodness-of-fit (R²) of funds relative to single indices. In October 2025, the average R² value was 0.7357, with 4.73% of funds exceeding 0.9 and 34.44% below 0.7. This indicates a loss of market concentration and a trend toward diversified holdings among public funds [35] - The report categorizes equity funds into five styles: large-cap, mid-small-cap, value, growth, and sector themes. In October 2025, value funds performed the best with a median return of 3.7%, while growth funds showed the most significant polarization, with the best return at 8.2% and the worst at -10.5% [22][23] - The report highlights the performance of sector-themed funds, with cyclical funds achieving an average return of 3.1% in October 2025. Among cyclical funds, the best performer was the "Coal Equal Weight LOF" with a return of 9.9%. In the technology sector, the best performer was "Caitong Growth Preferred A," with a return of 13.6% [25][28] - The report identifies high-rated funds that demonstrate excellent performance, risk control, and investment strategy. For example, in the mid-small-cap category, "Huitianfu Balanced Selection Six-Month Holding" achieved a recent score of 10 with an R² of 0.74, while "Hongde Zhixuan Qiyuan A" scored 10 with an R² of 0.95 [55][56] - The report also tracks newly rated funds, defined as those receiving their first rating in the current month and managed by fund managers with less than three years of experience. In October 2025, seven such funds were identified, with most benchmarked against the CSI 500 index [61][63][64] - The report highlights funds with significant rating upgrades, reflecting improved performance and management optimization. For instance, "泉果思源三年持有 A" (Quanguo Siyuan Three-Year Holding A) was upgraded and benchmarked against the "New Energy Vehicle" index [65][66]

Group 1 - The report highlights a decline in market sentiment, with a recommendation to reduce equity asset positions due to a shift in momentum factors to a bearish outlook [2][72] - The A-share market sentiment index shows a continued decline in bullish sentiment for the equity market, falling out of the optimistic range [2][51] - The growth style is favored based on the analysis of market factors, U.S. Treasury yields, and style momentum, indicating a positive outlook for growth stocks [2][58] Group 2 - The report notes a mixed performance in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% while the ChiNext Index fell by 5.33% [5][8] - The U.S. stock market saw gains, with the Dow Jones increasing by 2.51% and the Nasdaq rising by 4.70%, influenced by moderate inflation and Federal Reserve rate cuts [9][14] - The bond market experienced short-term yield increases while long-term yields decreased, with the 1-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to 3.70% and the 10-year yield falling to 4.11% [18][21] Group 3 - The report indicates a significant decline in fund issuance, with a total of 72.3 billion yuan in October, a 57% decrease from the previous month [28] - Equity funds saw a net inflow of 133.55 billion yuan, while LOF funds experienced a net outflow of 7.5 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor preferences [34][29] - Active equity funds increased their exposure to quality styles while reducing allocations to dividend, value potential, and growth styles [35][36] Group 4 - The report suggests a cautious approach to equity investments, recommending a focus on large-cap and growth styles for November, while advising on stable fixed-income products [72][73] - Specific fund recommendations include Dongwu Mobile Internet, China Europe Advanced Manufacturing, and Anxin Advantage Growth, all categorized as medium to high risk [72][73] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment for future investment strategies [72][72]

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score has slightly increased to 2.2 as of October 24, compared to 1.9 the previous week, indicating a partial recovery in market sentiment [9][12]. - The overall market sentiment is showing increased differentiation, with a decline in price-volume consistency, suggesting reduced capital activity and a cautious risk appetite among investors [12][19]. - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market has significantly decreased compared to the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 1,991.617 billion RMB on October 24 [19][22]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - As of October 24, 2025, industries such as banking, oil and petrochemicals, transportation, public utilities, and construction decoration have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, with coal being the strongest at a score of 93.22 [40][41]. - The model indicates that the banking sector's short-term score has rapidly increased, maintaining a favorable signal for both value and large-cap styles [40][41]. - The analysis of industry crowding shows that sectors like electronics and power equipment have high returns but also high capital crowding, which may pose volatility risks [43][44]. Group 3: Technical Indicators and Market Dynamics - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown a decline, indicating weak upward momentum and reduced buying interest in the market [32][35]. - The main capital inflow has improved, suggesting an increase in institutional buying power and a gradual warming of market sentiment [35][37]. - The model maintains a signal indicating that large-cap and value styles are currently dominant, although the strength of this signal may weaken in the future [52][53].

- The report discusses the seasonal characteristics of the A-share market in Q4, highlighting a tendency for slight upward movement driven by year-end policy signals and marginal improvements in the funding environment[65][66][55] - Large-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 300 index, typically outperform small-cap stocks in Q4 due to their defensive attributes and institutional fund reallocation preferences. Historical data shows a CSI 300 win rate of 61% and median return of 1.63%, compared to the CSI 1000's win rate of 39% and median return of -1.60%[19][20][27] - Micro-cap stocks exhibit strong resilience in Q4, with a win rate of 78% and median return of 7.35%. This performance is attributed to factors such as liquidity preferences post-holiday and supportive policies for small and micro enterprises[29][30][33] - Growth and dividend styles show distinct characteristics in Q4. Growth stocks often face volatility due to profit-taking and valuation rebalancing, while dividend stocks demonstrate stability with a win rate of 56% and median return of 0.87%[35][38][40] - Industry rankings experience significant shifts in Q4, with most leading industries from the first three quarters dropping in rank, while new leaders emerge due to policy catalysts or valuation adjustments. Stable industries typically benefit from consistent policy support, solid fundamentals, and uninterrupted fund allocation[44][48][50]

Group 1: Market Sentiment Model Insights - The market sentiment score slightly rebounded to 1.9 as of October 17, up from 1.75 the previous week, indicating a neutral sentiment perspective [10][4] - Multiple indicators have turned negative this week, with a rapid decline in price-volume consistency, suggesting a significant drop in the degree of price-volume matching [13][16] - The total trading volume of the A-share market decreased significantly compared to the previous week, indicating a decline in market activity, with the highest trading volume recorded at 25,965.85 billion RMB on October 14 [16][4] Group 2: Sector Performance and Trends - The banking, coal, steel, public utilities, and environmental protection sectors have shown an upward trend in short-term scores, indicating strong short-term trends [37][38] - The short-term score for non-ferrous metals is currently the highest at 89.83, reflecting strong short-term performance in this sector [37][38] - The model indicates that sectors with high trading congestion, such as banking and coal, are experiencing high volatility risks due to valuation and sentiment adjustments [47][42] Group 3: Investment Style and Strategy - The model suggests a preference for large-cap stocks, with signals indicating a shift towards large-cap style dominance, although the strength of this signal is weak [52][51] - The model maintains a value style preference, with increasing strength in the signal, suggesting that value stocks may outperform in the near term [52][51] - The relative strength index (RSI) indicates a shift towards caution in market sentiment, with a decrease in buying momentum and a potential for short-term adjustments [30][33]

- The "Growth-Value Style Rotation Model" suggests overweighting growth stocks based on quantitative economic cycle analysis, where a high profit cycle slope and strong credit cycle favor growth, while high interest rate levels favor value. The model combines signals from fundamentals, valuation, and sentiment to recommend growth allocation[29][30][31] - The "Growth-Value Style Rotation Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 13.10% since 2012, outperforming the benchmark's 7.77% annualized return. The strategy's annualized excess return is 5.33%, with a maximum drawdown of 43.07% compared to the benchmark's 44.13%[30][32] - The "Small-Cap vs Large-Cap Style Rotation Model" is constructed using 11 effective rotation indicators, including market sentiment concentration, Beta dispersion, and volatility risk. Currently, 7 indicators favor large-cap stocks, maintaining a recommendation to overweight large-cap style[33][34] - The "Small-Cap vs Large-Cap Style Rotation Strategy" has delivered an annualized excess return of 9.91% this year, with a shift from small-cap allocation in the first half to large-cap allocation in the second half. Since 2014, the strategy has consistently generated positive excess returns annually[34][35] - The "Short-Term Timing Strategy" integrates signals from fundamentals, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity. This week, the strategy turned cautious due to weak manufacturing PMI, high PE and PB valuation levels, and subdued market sentiment. Liquidity signals remain neutral[19][20][21] - The "Short-Term Timing Strategy" has achieved an annualized return of 16.52% since 2012, significantly outperforming the benchmark's 4.73%. The strategy's annualized excess return is 11.79%, with a maximum drawdown of 15.49% compared to the benchmark's 31.41%. This year, the strategy has delivered a return of 23.22%, with an excess return of 11.16%[21][24][27]