- The **Artificial Intelligence Global Asset Allocation Model** applies machine learning to asset allocation problems, utilizing factor investment principles to score and rank assets, ultimately constructing a monthly quantitative equal-weighted strategy for global asset allocation[38][39][41] - The model's suggested weights for January include: government bond index (68.27%), SHFE gold (28.55%), Nasdaq (1.02%), ICE Brent oil (1.24%), and CSI 500 (0.92%)[38][41] - Historical performance from January 2021 to December 2025 shows annualized return of 6.78%, Sharpe ratio of 1.04, maximum drawdown of 6.66%, and excess annualized return of -0.38% compared to the benchmark[39][42] - Year-to-date return for the strategy is 7.18%, while the benchmark return is 18.14%[40][42] - The **Dynamic Macro Event Factor-Based Stock-Bond Rotation Strategy** incorporates macro timing modules and risk budgeting frameworks to generate stock-bond allocation weights for three risk profiles: aggressive, balanced, and conservative[43][44][45] - January stock weights are: aggressive (55.00%), balanced (14.60%), and conservative (0.00%)[43][45] - December macro signals include 60% strength for both economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions[43][45] - Historical performance from January 2005 to December 2025 shows annualized returns of 20.03% (aggressive), 10.84% (balanced), and 5.88% (conservative), outperforming the benchmark's 8.97%[44][49] - Year-to-date returns are 15.77% (aggressive), 4.23% (balanced), and 0.70% (conservative), compared to the benchmark's 15.95%[44][49] - The **Dividend Style Timing Strategy** leverages 10 indicators from economic growth and monetary liquidity dimensions to construct a timing strategy for dividend indices, showing enhanced stability compared to the CSI Dividend Total Return Index[50][51][53] - January recommended allocation for CSI Dividend is 0%, as most signals did not indicate a bullish outlook[50][54] - Historical performance includes annualized return of 16.18%, maximum drawdown of -21.22%, and Sharpe ratio of 0.93, outperforming the CSI Dividend Total Return Index's annualized return of 11.28% and Sharpe ratio of 0.57[50][53]

Core Insights - The fund issuance market in early 2026 is experiencing a surge, particularly in FOF (Fund of Funds) products, driven by customer demand and competition among banks and fund companies [1][6] Group 1: FOF Product Performance - On January 5, 2026, Wanji Fund's FOF product sold out in just one day, marking it as the first new fund of the year to achieve this feat [2] - On January 6, 2026, GF Fund's FOF also announced an early closure of its fundraising, completing its collection in only two trading days [2] - The rapid sales of FOF products are attributed to banks setting high fundraising targets, such as 2 billion or 3 billion yuan, which, once reached, lead to early closure of the fundraising period [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - In 2026, a total of 20.7 trillion yuan, 9.6 trillion yuan, and 1.3 trillion yuan of 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year fixed-term deposits will mature, representing an increase of 4 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [4] - The low interest rates on fixed deposits are failing to meet investors' needs for capital preservation and growth, prompting a shift towards FOF products that offer diversified asset allocation [4] - FOF products are designed to include a variety of underlying assets beyond traditional equity and bond funds, such as U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities, which helps in risk diversification and capturing alpha opportunities [4] Group 3: Supply and Channel Strategies - The role of FOF fund managers is evolving from merely selecting funds to focusing on asset allocation and developing refined strategies [5] - Major banks are actively promoting FOF marketing plans, with many large banks establishing dedicated FOF sections on their wealth management platforms [5] - The demand for FOF products is supported by the requirement for fund managers to have experience in multi-asset management and strong volatility control capabilities [5] Group 4: New Fund Issuance Trends - The FOF sales surge reflects a broader trend in the new fund issuance market, with 38 new funds launched between January 5 and January 7, 2026 [6] - A total of 77 public funds are planned for issuance in January 2026, with the first trading week expected to account for 62.33% of the total monthly issuance [6] - Equity products dominate the new fund landscape, with 26 index funds and 26 actively managed equity funds among the new offerings [7]

广发证券资深金工分析师 李豪 anningning@gf.com.cn 广发金工安宁宁陈原文团队 摘要 基于宏观分析、技术分析下的大类资产配置最新观点： 权益： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体看多权益资产；技术层面，当前权益资产趋势向上、估值适中且 呈现资金流入状态； 债券： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空债券资产；技术层面，当前债券资产趋势向下； lhao@gf.com.cn 广发证券首席金工分析师 安宁宁 黄金： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利空黄金资产；技术层面，当前黄金资产价格趋势向上； 工业品： 宏观层面，当前宏观层面整体利多工业品资产；技术层面，当前工业品资产价格趋势向下。 | 资产 | 宏观分析层面观点 | 技术分析 层面观点 | 月度观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 权益 | 当前宏观层面整体利多权益资产 | 趋势向上 估值适中 资金流入 | 看多 | | 债券 | 当前宏观层面整体利空债券资产 | 趋势向下 | 看空 | | 黄金 | 当前宏观层面整体利空黄金资产 | 趋势向上 | 看平 | | 工业品 | 当前宏观层面整体利多工业品资产 | 趋势向下 | 看平 | ...

1月7日，中信证券发布报告，展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，全年经 济增速或达4.9%，出口保持韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。2026年大类资产环境或呈现流 动性边际宽松与经济温和修复的特征，推荐商品>股票>债券。 汇率方面，人民币或进入温和升值周期，美元兑人民币汇率中枢有望逐步向6.8靠拢。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 债券方面，该行预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率 或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。 商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性 宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击5000美元/盎司；铜则在供给约束与电力需求驱 动下具备强支撑，预计均价有望上涨至12000美元/吨。 权益方面，该行预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估值修复的 戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report suggests that the asset environment in 2026 may exhibit characteristics of marginal liquidity easing and moderate economic recovery, recommending commodities over stocks and bonds [1] Group 2 - In terms of equities, the report anticipates a 5%-10% increase in the full-year performance of the Wind All A index for 2026, with Hong Kong stocks expected to experience a rebound in earnings and a second round of valuation recovery [1] - The US stock market is projected to maintain fundamental growth momentum under a backdrop of "fiscal + monetary" easing during the mid-term election year [1] Group 3 - For bonds, the 10-year China government bond yield is expected to fluctuate within a range of 1.5%-1.8% throughout the year, with a pattern of initially declining and then rising [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield is anticipated to remain within a range of 3.9%-4.3% [1] Group 4 - In the commodities sector, the oil supply-demand balance is shifting from surplus to equilibrium, with Brent crude oil projected to fluctuate between $58-$70 per barrel for the year [1] - Gold is expected to maintain strength supported by liquidity easing and geopolitical risks, with a potential to reach $5,000 per ounce, although the rate of increase may slow [1] - Copper is forecasted to have strong support due to supply constraints and electricity demand, with an average price expected to rise to $12,000 per ton [1] Group 5 - Regarding exchange rates, the Chinese yuan is likely entering a period of mild appreciation, with the USD/CNY exchange rate expected to gradually approach 6.8 [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates that as of the end of December 2025, the signals for stocks, bonds, and gold markets in January 2026 are positive, negative, and positive respectively [1][3]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The macro environment forecast for Q1 2026 is predicted to be a slowdown, with credit spreads narrowing and term spreads expanding based on the latest data from December 2025 [2]. Group 2: Industry Trends - From January 2015 to December 2025, the cumulative return of the industry composite trend factor combination is 124.81%, with an excess return of 48.89%. The factor signal for December 2025 was positive, and the Wind All A index had a monthly return of 3.30%. The industry composite trend factor remains at 0.46, maintaining a positive signal [3].

- The macro scoring model is optimistic about Chinese bonds, US stocks, copper, and crude oil[24] - The US stock timing model indicates a potential strengthening of US stocks driven by an upward revision in rate cut expectations[25] - The gold timing model remains positive on gold, with the latest indicator value at -0.51, slightly improved from the previous month[27] - The crude oil timing model maintains a cautious view, with the latest crude oil sentiment index reading at -0.05, remaining below the zero axis[33] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34] - The macro scoring model's latest view shows an improvement in the outlook for US stocks, Chinese bonds, copper, and crude oil[24][26] - The US stock timing model's latest mid-term timing indicator for US stocks is 72.9, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[25][29] - The gold timing model's latest indicator value is -0.51, with the sub-indicators showing weakness mainly due to the significant contraction in US fiscal efforts[27][30] - The crude oil timing model's latest crude oil sentiment index reading is -0.05, indicating a continued cautious outlook[33][34]

证券研究报告 2026年1月6日 下一任美联储主席即将敲定，宽松预期下降 — 大 类 资 产 配 置 月 报 第 5 4 期 ： 2 0 2 6 年 1 月 分析师：郑小霞 SAC执业证书号：S0010520080007 联系方式：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 SAC执业证书号：S0010523070001 联系方式：zhangyz@hazq.com 1 核心结论：下一任美联储主席降低降息预期，年初国内政策预期改善 | 大类 | 项目 | | | 本期：2025-12-31至2026-1-30 | 上期：2025-11-28至2025-12-31 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 投资建议 | 较上期变化 | 核心观点与逻辑支撑 | 指数变动 | 涨跌 | | 股指 | 上证指数 创业板指 | 震荡上行 震荡上行 | ↑ | 宏观政策接续发力，建筑业PMI大幅改善指向投资止跌回稳 | 3888.6-->3968.84 3052.59-->3203.17 | 2.06% 4.93% | | | | | | 值得期待，降 ...

[Table_Page] 金融工程|专题报告 2026 年 1 月 5 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 金融工程：大类资产配置分析月报 （2025 年 12 月） PMI 回升至荣枯线以上，当前看多权益资产 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 表：大类资产最新观点(20251231) 数据来源：Wind, 广发证券发展研究中心 | [分析师： Table_Author]李豪 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518070001 | | 021-38003569 | | lhao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 安宁宁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，李豪并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 972918116公共联系人2026-01-05 14:56:19 1 / 15 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 图：大类资产配置组合表现 0 1 2 3 4 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on financial futures in the stock index sector is that the index futures are expected to fluctuate with a strong bias after the holiday. For IH2603, the short - term and medium - term trends are both oscillatory, while the intraday trend is strong, with an overall view of oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is strong, and the overall view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is strong, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening. The core logic is that last Wednesday, each stock index oscillated and consolidated in a narrow range. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the manufacturing PMI in December was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, combined with policy - favorable expectations and the net inflow trend of funds, jointly support the stock index. In 2026, policies are gradually being implemented, and policy - favorable expectations are gradually fermenting. Against the background of the global monetary easing cycle, the trend of large - scale asset allocation to Chinese technology assets is increasing the risk appetite of the stock market. In the short term, as the stock index approaches the previous high, the technical resistance appears, and the upward trend of the stock index slows down. However, after the holiday, with the return of market liquidity and the further fermentation of policy benefits, the risk appetite of the stock market is expected to continue to recover [5].