| 大类资产早报 | | | --- | --- | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/09 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/30 | 4.151 | 4.698 | 3.533 | 2.710 | 3.532 | 3.256 | 0.180 | 3.380 | | 最新变化 | 0.011 | -0.002 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.001 | -0.006 | 0.036 | -0.001 | | 一周变化 | 0.044 | 0.019 | -0.030 | -0.038 | -0.010 | -0.039 | 0.009 | -0.022 | | 一月变化 | -0.111 | -0.101 | -0.049 | -0.074 | -0.143 | ...

Market Overview - Macro growth factors continue to rise while inflation indicators decline, indicating persistent domestic demand issues[4] - The US economic surprise index rebounded, with recent economic data exceeding expectations, leading to a 0.54% increase in the US dollar index[4] - A-share market shows increased structural differentiation, with the STAR 50 index rising 6.5% while the CSI 1000 index fell 0.5%[4] Asset Performance - COMEX silver surged 7.95% this week, marking a year-to-date increase of over 50%, while Brent crude oil rose 4.21%[4] - The bond market weakened overall, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising, reflecting inflation expectations and pressure on long-duration assets[4] Investment Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Overseas Equities: Monitor interest-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential in the US dollar[5] - Gold: Increase allocation to gold and silver as core assets during the rate-cutting cycle, driven by both rate cuts and safe-haven demand[5] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Valuation Insights - A-share valuation remains high, with the CSI 800 P/E ratio at 52.41x and P/B ratio at 5.77x, indicating potential overvaluation risks[54] - Earnings expectations for the CSI 800 are flat, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.4%[55]

契合《行动方案》精神，中金基金混合资产的未来产品布局将围绕"精准化、工具化、策略化"展开，构 建层次清晰、风险收益特征鲜明、能够满足不同客户需求的产品体系。 专题：北京公募基金高质量发展系列活动 新时代、新基金、新价值 《推动公募基金行业高质量发展行动方案》（以下简称《行动方案》）的颁布，对公募基金行业服务投 资者的能力提出了更高的要求，《行动方案》也指引基金公司通过优化投资研究、产品设计、风险管 理、市场推广等资源配置，践行长期投资、价值投资、理性投资，努力给投资者带来更优回报。混合资 产业务与《行动方案》的指引方向天然契合，是服务投资者财富管理需求的重要抓手。 混合资产业务具有"覆盖类型广、底层资产多、团队要求高"的特点。产品类型覆盖"一级债基、二级债 基、偏债混合、灵活配置、偏债型FOF"等。底层资产覆盖"股票、债券、可转债、商品、衍生品、 REITs"等几乎全部二级市场核心资产。投资策略的实现既需要有宏观配置的视角，又需要在特定资产上 有深刻的理解，同时各类资产的风险收益特征又要服务于产品整体定位，因此往往体现为"团队作战"且 高效沟通协作。 《推动公募基金行业高质量发展行动方案》是指引行业前行的灯塔 ...

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 9 月 29 日 大类资产运行周报（20250922-20250926） 美国通胀数据符合预期 大宗商品整体 上涨 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | -1.14% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.41% | | 全球债券指数 | -0.54% | | 全球国债指数 | -0.61% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | -0.44% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.55% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.02% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 2.92% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 资料来源：Wind 资讯 相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The FOF fund managers are optimistic about stock assets in the fourth quarter, focusing on technology growth and commodities, while also considering the role of bonds for volatility management [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Market Outlook - The probability of corporate profit improvement is higher, making stock assets more attractive [1][3]. - The current stock-bond price ratio is around 5.2%, indicating a favorable environment for stocks despite the recent rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. - The upward momentum in A-shares is driven by increased capital expenditure in the domestic computing power industry, supported by both domestic and international tech giants [3][4]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are currently overweighted, while overseas equity assets and commodities are given limited overweight [5]. - The sectors of technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and energy security have seen significant price increases this year, warranting a premium due to the ongoing AI-driven industrial revolution [5]. - The bond market has improved in terms of value after adjustments, and a neutral duration is recommended for bond allocations [5]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - Structural opportunities exist in technology growth within equity assets, and recently adjusted dividend stocks are also worth attention [6]. - Gold continues to show value in allocation, along with certain industrial commodities that face supply constraints [6].

Core Viewpoint - The event "New Era, New Fund, New Value" aims to enhance public understanding of mutual funds and financial services, bridging the gap between financial institutions and community residents [1][3]. Group 1: Event Purpose and Impact - The event is designed to bring professional mutual fund knowledge into communities, making financial services more accessible to residents [3]. - It enhances residents' financial literacy and provides insights into real investor needs, contributing to the exploration of high-quality development paths in the industry [3]. - The initiative is seen as a way for financial institutions to fulfill their social responsibilities and promote investor education [3]. Group 2: Educational Content and Engagement - Presentations included discussions on the impact of high-quality economic development on investments, with a focus on asset allocation aligned with national development strategies [3]. - Lecturers used simple language and relatable examples to explain economic conditions and financial knowledge, particularly emphasizing personal pension policies [5]. - The interactive session was well-received, with residents actively asking questions about investment, retirement savings, and market trends, indicating a strong interest in financial education [5][6].

[Table_Message]2025-09-28 金融工程周报 $$\pmb{\bigm\bigm|}\pmb{\bigm|}\pmb{\bigm|}\pmb{\bigm|}\pmb{\bigm|}\pmb{\bigm|}\pmb{\bigm|}$$ 黄金市场表现较好，商品基金领涨大类基金 [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] . 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3828.11，涨跌幅 0.21%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 ...

大类资产月度策略（2025.09） 贵金属一枝独秀 证券研究报告 | 2025年09月28日 核心观点 1. 货币-信用"风火轮"：宽货币背景下信用持续修复 信用方面，8 月我国新增社融 25668 亿元，高于万得一致调查值（24873 亿 元）。其中新增人民币贷款 5900 亿元,高于万得一致调查值（5814 亿元）。 信用脉冲维持向上趋势，信用条件自低位修复。当前格局由此前的"宽货币 +偏紧信用"过渡为"宽货币+信用边际修复"。若政策传导与需求修复延续， 信用改善有望保持，对未来 1–3 个季度的经济与权益市场指引均偏正面。 2. 下一阶段大类资产价格展望 前期利好因素逐步兑现，A 股稳中有进。流动性释放与政策利好推动市场回 暖。A 股呈现向好走势，大盘成长带动市场上行，创业板指与深成指表现突 出。基本面上，企业上半年业绩整体稳健，多项惠民与消费刺激政策落地， 增强市场信心。外部因素方面，美联储降息释放流动性，中美经贸对话重启， 不确定性风险边际缓解。产业层面，公募基金费率改革及 ETF 热潮提升资金 活跃度，关注海外反规避与反歧视调查等措施强化了贸易保护工具。目前市 场已运行至相对高位，前期利好因素逐步 ...

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/26 最新变化 -0.20% -0.12% -0.10% -0.24% -0.07% -0.40% 一周变化 -0.47% -0.14% -0.11% -0.22% 0.11% 1.09% 一月变化 0.91% 0.11% 1.03% 0.67% 0.53% 1.25% 一年变化 3.04% 3.85% 5.04% 7.37% 6.88% 11.92% 股 指 期 货 交 易 数 据 | 指数表现 | A股 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 创业板 | 中证500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 | 3853.30 | 4593.49 | 2952.74 | 3235.76 | 7341.32 | | 涨跌（%） | -0.01 | 0.60 | 0.45 | 1.58 | 0.24 | | 估值 | 沪深300 | 上证50 | 中证500 | 标普500 | 德国DAX | | PE(TTM) | 14.13 | 11.70 | 34.89 | 27.49 | 19.42 | ...

首先我们看一下三季度债券市场调整的主因，其实就是我们前面提到的随着权益市场上涨带来的市场风 险偏好的上行，其中会有部分资金去做大类资产配置的切换，进而从债券市场转向权益市场。在这个过 程中我们其实发现，不同于过往的几轮权益市场的牛市，在这一轮权益市场"慢牛"的行情中，居民的存 款搬家从固收类转向权益类的迹象不是特别明显。我们理解对于大部分居民而言，他其实寻找的更多的 还是稳定的、并且收益相对比较可观的资产，就导致在权益走慢牛的趋势下，其实很多资金还是更愿意 去配置在三季度调整过后相对有配置价值的债券类资产。 第二点就是在7月份中央财经委提到的反内卷政策下，三季度多种商品出现了触底反弹，包括定价国内 需求的一些黑色商品，也包括这两年相对产能比较过剩的一些光伏产业的上游资产。我们发现其实在三 季度反内卷政策推行的过程中，更多的是政策层对于供给层面的一些约束。我们看到光伏产业部分头部 的企业去注资成立公司，然后去做部分产能的收储，并且去淘汰一些落后的、过剩的产能。而在化工领 域、黑色领域部分限产也引发了上游原材料价格的上涨。 我们想强调的是，在经济转型的过程中，反内卷政策更多还是依托于供给侧去做一些产能方面的严控， ...