1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from headline-driven tariff risks to macroeconomic data [1] - There is anticipation for concrete evidence that recent trade policies may impact inflation [1]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data presents a mixed picture, with various sectors showing signs of weakness, indicating that the market needs time to digest the pressure [3][4][5] - Industrial enterprises' added value increased by 6.1%, but this represents a significant decline compared to the previous month, reflecting concerns at the company level [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% in April, but this is a noticeable drop from 5.9% in March, indicating a weakening demand [3][4] Group 2 - The consumption sector faces challenges, particularly due to price wars and a lack of pricing power, which is expected to persist in the short term [4] - The liquor industry, especially white liquor, is under pressure due to new government regulations aimed at reducing waste, which could lead to a long-term decline in consumption [4] - Real estate investment fell by 10.3% in April, marking a significant drag on the economy, with first-tier cities experiencing a shift from rising to falling second-hand housing prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a strong rebound of over 15% in European stock markets since early April, Bank of America believes the market may be overly optimistic in pricing the reduction of future policy uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - European stock markets have rebounded more than 15% since the low on April 9, recovering from an 18% drop from the historical high in early March [3]. - The rebound is attributed to resilient macro data and expectations of reduced policy uncertainty [1][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Data - Overall macro data remains strong, with U.S. private domestic demand growing at an annualized rate of 3% in Q1 and April employment data exceeding expectations [5]. - Global PMI slightly declined from 51.9 in March to 50.7, indicating that while some indicators suggest a slowdown, economic growth momentum has not yet been significantly impacted [5]. Group 3: Policy Uncertainty - Market sentiment has improved as signs indicate that the U.S. government's "pain threshold" has been triggered, leading to a rollback of tariff measures and upcoming trade negotiations with China [6]. - Investors appear to view high uncertainty indicators as lagging, expecting a significant decrease in uncertainty due to the easing of trade tensions [6]. Group 4: Future Risks - There is considerable disappointment potential as macro data may worsen, with analysts predicting a further decline in global PMI by 3 points to 48 in Q3 [7][8]. - Although policy uncertainty is expected to decrease, it may not decline as sharply as the market anticipates, suggesting that the Stoxx 600 index could face about a 15% downside risk, with a target price of 460 points for Q3 [14][11]. Group 5: Sector Analysis - Analysts favor sectors positively correlated with uncertainty reduction, such as food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, personal and household products, and utilities [16]. - Caution is advised for sectors negatively correlated with uncertainty, including building materials, banks, capital goods, and diversified financial services [16].

Group 1 - The US dollar index fell by 0.59% to 99.237, influenced by mixed macroeconomic data from Europe and the election of a new German Chancellor [2] - The Eurozone's composite PMI for April was reported at 50.4, slightly above the initial estimate of 50.1 but below March's 50.9 [2] - The UK’s composite PMI for April was 48.5, higher than the initial estimate of 48.2 but lower than March's 51.5 [2] Group 2 - The US trade deficit reached a record high of $140.5 billion in March, exceeding market expectations and significantly higher than the previous year's $68.6 billion [3] - The euro appreciated against the dollar, with 1 euro exchanging for 1.1371 dollars, up from 1.1313 dollars in the previous trading day [3] - The dollar weakened against several currencies, including a drop to 142.45 yen from 143.92 yen and to 0.8217 Swiss francs from 0.8229 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [2] Core Viewpoint - The short - term domestic macro - policy is in a window period, the Sino - US tariff conflict has not improved significantly. Although the iron ore is strong in the real - time, the medium - and long - term pattern of supply is loose. It is recommended to take a short - side approach. The short - term supply - demand relationship improvement supports the price, which moves in a range. It is advisable to short at high prices and avoid chasing long positions [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The global shipment has rebounded overall this period, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and non - mainstream regions. May is the peak season for foreign ore shipments, and it is expected that shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron output has reached around 244 + tons per day (according to the Steel Union), only lower than the same period in 2023 (245.88) and exceeding the highest level of last year (239.94). The high demand in the short - term supports the price, but the profit of blast furnace steel mills has declined due to the falling prices of finished products. The impact of tariffs on exports will gradually appear, and the increase and duration of molten iron output are expected to be limited [2] Inventory - The inventory of imported ore in steel mills has increased slightly, and pre - holiday restocking will drive up the inventory level. The port inventory has started to accumulate this period because of the significant increase in unloading and warehousing volume. Considering the high domestic demand, the port inventory will remain relatively stable or tend to decline. Later, attention should be paid to the increase in supply shipments [2] Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range trading. The price range of the 2509 contract this week is 690 - 720 yuan per ton [2]

Market Overview - After six days of gains, the US stock market appears to be in a correction phase due to escalating trade tensions, weak US economic data, and a disappointing earnings forecast from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) [1][2] - On Monday, US stock index futures fell, while European stocks opened higher, with the euro slightly rising against the dollar [1] Company Performance - Several companies, including General Motors Co. and JetBlue Airways Corp., have withdrawn their earnings guidance amid increasing trade friction, with United Parcel Service Inc. announcing a layoff of 20,000 employees this year [2] - Mercedes-Benz Group AG also retracted its earnings outlook for the year due to uncertainties related to trade barriers [2] - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) saw its stock drop over 15% following an earnings forecast that significantly missed expectations [5][9] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil experienced a decline of 2.0%, trading at $59.2 per barrel [4] - Spot silver fell by 2.00%, priced at $32.27 per ounce [2] - Spot gold dropped by 0.9%, briefly falling below $3,290 per ounce [7]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the potential for aluminum prices to rise due to the resumption of Russian aluminum exports to the U.S., which may widen the domestic supply gap [4][3] - Copper prices are expected to experience short-term fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and tariff developments [4][5] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to increased supply and inventory accumulation, with expectations of a price range between 70,000 to 80,000 yuan/ton for the year [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - Important information indicates that U.S. initial jobless claims slightly exceeded expectations, and China's manufacturing PMI for February surpassed forecasts [12] - Market performance shows that the non-ferrous metal sector underperformed, with a decline of 2.32% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [15][16] - Valuation changes reveal that the non-ferrous metal sector's PE_TTM is 19.18, with a decrease of 0.49, while the PB_LF is 2.08, down by 0.05 [19][20] 2. Industrial Metals Copper - Copper prices saw a decline of 1.63% for LME and 0.23% for SHFE, with inventories showing mixed trends [22][25] - The copper smelting profit margin is reported at -1,916 yuan/ton, indicating a narrowing loss [25][27] Aluminum - LME aluminum prices fell by 2.78%, while SHFE prices decreased by 1.08%, with inventory levels showing an increase [28] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises decreased by 5.37% to 4,213 yuan/ton [28] Lead and Zinc - Lead prices increased slightly, while zinc prices experienced a decline, with smelting margins showing a narrowing loss [36][39] Tin and Nickel - Tin prices decreased, while nickel prices saw a slight increase, with domestic nickel iron enterprises reporting expanded profits [43][48] 3. Energy Metals Lithium - Lithium carbonate prices fell by 1.25% to 75,200 yuan/ton, with significant inventory accumulation impacting market dynamics [51] - The profit margins for lithium smelting are reported as negative, indicating challenging market conditions [51] Cobalt - Cobalt prices increased, with domestic smelting margins rising significantly, reflecting improved profitability [57]