Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the U.S. have been overlooked for a long time, but expectations for their performance have risen due to anticipated easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. However, recent reports indicate that small-cap stocks still lack momentum and may not sustain their recent performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index, which measures small-cap stocks, has shown a year-to-date increase of approximately 2%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's increase of about 9% [3]. - Despite a brief period of outperformance against the S&P 500, analysts believe this momentum is tied more to expectations of Fed rate cuts rather than improvements in small-cap earnings prospects [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Historically, small-cap stocks tend to perform well during extreme economic conditions, either recession or boom, but such conditions are currently not present [5]. - The proportion of loss-making companies within the Russell 2000 index is at a historical high, contributing to investor caution regarding small-cap stocks [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Some investors remain optimistic about small-cap stocks, citing potential for the Russell 2000 index to outperform the S&P 500 despite recent underperformance [5]. - The rapid development in the AI sector has raised bubble risks, reminiscent of the tech investment boom in the late 1990s, leading some investors to consider small-cap stocks as a safer bet [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Opportunities - The Russell 2000 index has a higher price-to-earnings ratio but a lower price-to-book ratio compared to the S&P 500, suggesting that small-cap stocks may be undervalued [6]. - The active IPO market in 2023, with 95 IPOs raising $12.9 billion, could enhance the quality of small-cap stocks and attract more investors [6].

Group 1 - The focus of the U.S. stock market is shifting from the "seven giants" tech stocks to small-cap stocks, with the S&P SmallCap 600 and Russell 2000 indices rising by 6% and 7% respectively over the past three months, although still lagging behind the Nasdaq 100's nearly 9% increase [1][3] - Francis Gannon from Royce Investment Partners believes that value-oriented small-cap stocks will benefit the most from potential interest rate cuts, as these companies hold more floating-rate debt compared to large enterprises, making their financing costs more directly impacted [1][2] - The recent "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by Congress, which includes stimulus and tax reduction measures, may further boost the performance of small-cap companies [1] Group 2 - Bank of America’s strategy team indicates that interest rate cuts could lead to stronger short-term excess returns for small-cap stocks, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes [2] - The report highlights that during the Federal Reserve's easing cycle, value-oriented small-cap stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, with high-quality stocks outperforming high-risk companies [2] - The S&P 600 index currently has a price-to-earnings ratio of about 17 times, nearly 30% lower than that of the S&P 500, indicating a valuation advantage for small-cap stocks [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of 2025, with a series of policies taking effect, the economy is likely to remain stable and inflation is expected to rise continuously. The seesaw effect between core assets and dividend assets may switch, and the two are expected to enter a stage of resonant growth. The convertible bond market is expected to continue its upward trend, and the style may shift to core assets [3][4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Possibilities in the Second Half of 2025 - **Scenario 1: Economic stability and inflation recovery** - In this scenario, the heavy - weight stocks of various industries are expected to benefit from economic stability and inflation recovery, and core assets are likely to have an upward trend. If market liquidity is abundant, core assets and small - cap stocks may rise in resonance; if liquidity is limited, funds may rotate from small - cap stocks to core assets. For example, from 2016 - 2017, the economy was stable and inflation recovered, but market liquidity was limited, resulting in the rise of core assets and the decline of small - cap stocks [7]. - **Scenario 2: Economic slowdown and no inflation recovery** - Similar to the period from 2022 to September 2024, small - cap stocks may lead the rise initially, but they will experience a supplementary decline later because their rise cannot deviate from the economic fundamentals for a long time. For example, in April 2022, February 2024, and August - September 2024, small - cap stocks showed such trends [8]. - **Scenario 3: Economic slowdown, inflation decline, but market expectation repair** - Similar to the second half of 2014, core assets are expected to follow up and rise, like from November to December 2014 [2]. Seesaw Effect between Core Assets and Dividend Assets - From 2019 to April 2025, there was an obvious seesaw effect between core assets and dividend assets. From 2019 to January 2021, core assets rose while dividend assets fluctuated; from February 2021 to April 2025, dividend assets continued to rise while core assets declined significantly. However, in the second half of 2025, the seesaw effect may switch, and the two may rise in resonance [3][4]. - The rise of dividend assets from 2022 to April 2025 was mainly due to the certainty of high dividend yields. But as the valuation repair is gradually completed, the driving logic of dividend assets may shift to the profit factor. For example, the coal industry stopped rising after 2024, and the bank's yield has been low since July 2025, indicating a shift in the market's focus to the profit logic [4]. Convertible Bond Views - Considering that the economy is expected to remain stable in the second half of 2025 and inflation is expected to rise under the anti - involution policy, convertible bonds are expected to continue their upward trend. In terms of style, the economic stability in the second half of 2025 is conducive to the rise of core assets. Also, as the logic of dividend assets may change, dividend assets, as leading companies in some fields, are expected to become generalized core assets, and the two types of assets may rise in resonance [6]. Small - Cap Stock Market - The small - cap stock market is mainly driven by industrial trends. For example, in the new energy industry from 2021 - 2022, despite a short - term adjustment in the first quarter of 2022, it rose significantly again later due to the good development of the industrial trend. However, the industry began to decline continuously after the supply - demand pattern changed in the fourth quarter of 2022 [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with a notable increase in leveraged funds, particularly in small-cap stocks, which may drive further momentum in this segment [1][8]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The net inflow of margin trading reached 39.3 billion, marking the highest level since 2025, indicating strong market interest [1]. - The ChiNext 1000 index has risen by 20.81% year-to-date, but has underperformed the 1000ETF Enhanced (159680) by 8.36%, which has increased by 29.17% [1]. - The current trading environment shows a shift towards active small-cap stocks, with retail investors and speculative funds driving the market [8]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are concerned about the volatility of small-cap stocks, leading to a preference for diversified tools like the 1000ETF Enhanced, which mitigates risks while enhancing returns through quantitative strategies [6][9]. - The consensus is shifting towards small-cap stocks, particularly those in high-growth sectors such as manufacturing, hard technology, and pharmaceuticals, which are believed to have better innovation capabilities and earnings elasticity compared to large-cap stocks [9]. - For those looking to invest in small-caps but lacking stock-picking skills, a systematic investment approach through the 1000ETF Enhanced is recommended, especially during market pullbacks [9].

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 0.21% to close at 25,122.9 points, marking a four-day decline [2][3] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.67% to 5,542.03 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped by 0.30% to 9,006.23 points [2][3] - Total market turnover was HKD 278.2 billion, showing a decrease compared to the previous trading day, with net inflow from southbound funds amounting to HKD 18.573 billion [3] Stock Movements - Among HSI constituents, Zhongsheng Holdings surged by 8.29%, China Resources Beer rose by 6.24%, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical increased by 4.75%. Conversely, China Biologic Products fell by 6.57%, WuXi AppTec dropped by 5.16%, and BYD Electronics declined by 4.67% [4] - In the Hang Seng Technology Index, Tongcheng Travel rose by 7.43%, Horizon Robotics increased by 2.07%, and Midea Group gained 2.04%. However, SMIC saw a decline of 3.38% [4] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks continued to decline, with companies like Hongguang Semiconductor down by 2.99%, SMIC down by 3.38%, and Hua Hong Semiconductor down by 3.12% [5] - Hua Hong Semiconductor announced plans to acquire Shanghai Huahong Microelectronics to resolve competition issues related to its IPO commitments [7] - A report from Huatai Securities indicated that after a phase of rebound in specific sectors like semiconductors, investors may choose to take profits and shift towards defensive assets, as evidenced by significant outflows from semiconductor ETFs [7] Company Performance - Ping An Good Doctor reported a 136.8% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue reaching HKD 2.5 billion, a 19.5% increase [10] - The number of paid users for the financial client (F-end) reached approximately 20 million, up 34.6% year-on-year, while the number of paid enterprise clients (B-end) exceeded 3,500, reflecting a 39.2% increase [10] A-Share Market Insights - UBS analyst Meng Lei noted that the leverage in the A-share market is significantly lower than the mid-2015 levels, despite an increase in financing balance [11] - The number of new investors in the A-share market in July was approximately 1.11 million, which is considerably lower than the 3.8 million in October of the previous year [11] - The report suggests that "growth" style stocks may outperform "value" style stocks in the current market environment [11] Employment Data - The unemployment rate in Hong Kong slightly increased from 3.5% to 3.7% between April-June and May-July 2025, although the total number of employed individuals rose [12] - The increase in unemployment is attributed to new graduates and school leavers entering the labor market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with major indices reaching new highs for the year, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [7]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 13, the A-share market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the previous high of 3674 points from October 8 of last year, reaching a peak of 3688.63 points, the highest since December 2021 [7]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [7]. - The next target for the Shanghai Composite Index is projected to be 3731.69 points, which was the peak on February 18, 2021, requiring a further increase of 1.29% from the latest closing price [7]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Among the 4054 stocks listed before February 18, 2021, 2766 stocks (over 68%) have seen their latest closing prices exceed the highest price on that date, while 1288 stocks (nearly 32%) have declined [7]. - The median price change for these stocks during the period was 28.9% [7]. - Since the peak of 3731 points, 789 stocks have doubled in price, with Huicheng Environmental Protection showing the largest increase, exceeding 16 times its price at that peak [8]. Group 3: Index Performance - The performance of various indices has diverged since the peak of 3731 points, with the small-cap index, the CSI 2000, showing the highest increase of 56.43%, while the large-cap indices, such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, have both declined by approximately 30% [7].

Core Insights - A-shares trading volume exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time since February 27, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1] - Small-cap stocks are gaining popularity due to four main factors: increased market risk appetite, attractive valuation levels, effective quantitative enhancement strategies, and continuous net inflows of capital [1] Group 1: Market Activity - The trading volume of A-shares surpassed 2 trillion yuan as of August 13, marking a notable increase in market engagement [1] - As of 14:41, the 1000ETF Enhanced (159680) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) rose by 0.78% and 0.62% respectively, with intraday peaks of 1.14% and 0.92% [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Small-Cap Stocks - The rise in small-cap stocks is attributed to a heightened market risk appetite, showcasing their high growth potential [1] - Current valuation levels of small-cap stocks have not reached historical highs, indicating continued investment value [1] - The effectiveness of quantitative enhancement strategies is evident, as both ETFs have outperformed their benchmarks every quarter since inception [1] - Continuous net inflows are contributing to scale effects and liquidity advantages for these small-cap stocks [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the third quarter may further benefit growth-oriented stocks [1] - Despite the positive outlook, there are warnings regarding external uncertainties and the already high short-term gains of small-cap stocks, advising investors to remain cautious of potential pullbacks [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent discussions in the market highlight the strong performance of two enhanced ETFs under China Merchants Fund, particularly in the context of small-cap stock allocation value [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The two ETFs, the 1000ETF Enhanced (159680) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552), recorded net inflows on August 13, indicating robust investor interest [1] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has achieved a return exceeding 40% this year, while the 1000ETF Enhanced has surpassed 20%, both significantly outperforming their benchmark indices [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - The sustained popularity of small-cap stocks is attributed to four main factors: 1. Increased market risk appetite, highlighting the high growth elasticity of small and mid-cap stocks 2. Current valuation levels not reaching historical highs, indicating continued allocation value 3. The effectiveness of quantitative enhancement strategies, with both ETFs outperforming their benchmarks quarterly since inception 4. Continuous net inflows leading to scale effects and liquidity advantages [1] Group 3: External Factors - Industry experts note that while potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in Q3 may favor growth styles, investors should remain cautious of the uncertainties in the external environment and the already high short-term gains in small-cap stocks [1]

Core Insights - The small-cap stocks have paused while large-cap stocks take the lead in the market rally, with significant capital inflow into the market [1] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) has attracted over 140 million in capital, reaching a historical high, and its fund size has surpassed 1 billion [1] - The CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF has increased over 100% in the past year and nearly 50% year-to-date, leading the market in broad index ETFs [1] - The ETF has consistently generated excess returns each quarter since its inception, totaling over 40%, earning it the title of "King of Index Enhancements" [1] Market Conditions - The high volatility of small-cap stocks has been fully released due to the dual stimulus of a low-interest-rate environment and policies favoring specialized and innovative enterprises [1] - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 2000 index is nearing 140 times, which is at a historical high over the past decade, indicating a potential risk for investors [1] Investment Strategy - Professional institutions recommend a strategy of gradually building positions during market pullbacks rather than chasing high prices [1] - It is advised to allocate some investments to large-cap blue-chip stocks with more attractive valuations to achieve risk hedging in investment portfolios [1]

来源：金融界 风险提示：文中提及的指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议。任何在本文出现的 信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资 人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。基金投资有风险，基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现，基金管 理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎。 8月12日，小盘股V型反摊。中证2000增强ETF(159552)收涨0.15%，一度跌1.29%；近5日涨3.73%，近10 日涨5.99%，近20日涨11.00%，今年以来累计涨49.42%领涨宽指ETF。交投持续升温，换手率达 32.15%，成交额约2.6亿，环比前日放量80.34%创历史新高。 ...