Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have raised questions about the apparent contradictions in his remarks regarding interest rates, stock market valuations, and inflation control [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Valuation - Powell indicated that stock market valuations are "quite high," with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio nearing 20 times, which is 20% above historical averages [5]. - The concern is that a sudden drop in the stock market could lead to a decrease in consumer wealth, thereby suppressing consumption and negatively impacting the economy [5][10]. - Powell's warning about high valuations is more about risk prevention rather than direct market intervention, as financial stability is also a responsibility of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Tariffs - Powell described the impact of tariffs on inflation as a "one-time fluctuation," but acknowledged that this effect could take 3-6 months to fully transmit through the supply chain [5][6]. - The emphasis on "temporary" inflation is intended to prevent market panic and to provide the Federal Reserve with flexibility in policy decisions [7]. - Powell's dual focus on stabilizing prices and promoting employment reflects the complex economic environment, where raising interest rates to control inflation could harm job growth [11][13]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - The U.S. economy is showing signs of slowing, with GDP growth at only 1.5% in the first half of the year, leading to cautious hiring by companies [10][13]. - Powell's recent interest rate cut is seen as a preventive measure against economic "stalling," while also aiming to cool down the overheated stock market [10][14]. - The Federal Reserve's independence is acknowledged, but political pressures do exist, influencing the context in which Powell operates [11][13].

美联储刚刚在9月会议上实现了今年首次降息25个基点。 刚刚结束的首次降息后，内部的分歧就已公开摆上桌面。 今年拥有美联储货币政策委员会FOMC投票权的两名联储官员对激进降息感到担忧，而副主席鲍曼和理事米兰却持续发声，力推更快、更大幅度的降息措 施。 "7人反对再降息、10人支持降50基点" 的分裂态势，让后续政策走向充满变数。 当前这种内部分歧，究竟会如何影响美国经济的未来走向？ 分歧的核心本质上是对经济基本面的不同判断与政策风险的权衡， 主席施密德和芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比，他们俩的担心就像 "刚退烧就怕又着凉"。 前两年物价涨得多厉害，买菜、加油都贵了不少，美联储费了好大劲才把物价压下来一点。但现在还没完全稳住！ 美联储最看重的"核心物价指标"，现在还是比2%的目标高，甚至最近还有点往上走的苗头。 施密德怕现在要是急着多降息，大家手里的钱变多了，又开始疯狂花钱，物价很可能又涨回去，那么之前的努力就白费了。 古尔斯倒是更担心另一种"最坏情况"！那就是物价没降下来，经济反而先凉了，到时候又要扛物价，又要救经济，根本顾不过来。 比如现在已经有信号，8月新增工作只有2万多个，比年初少太多，要是为了救就业急着降息，万 ...

"十四五"以来，城镇新增就业累计达5921万人 "十四五"时期高校毕业生逐年增加，2022年起每年超千万人。人力资源社会保障部会同有关部门，拓宽 就业渠道，稳定青年就业局势。对以务工为主要收入的近3亿名农民工，深化东西部劳务协作，加大劳 务品牌培育，农民工就业增收之路越走越宽，脱贫人口务工规模保持在3000万人以上。 健全就业公共服务体系，构建"省市县乡村"五级服务网络，建成近9000家零工市场，推动服务资源向基 层延伸、向农村覆盖。建立全国统一的就业信息资源库和就业公共服务平台，每年为企业和劳动者提供 就业服务近亿次。 超4200万人次企业职工、超3100万人次农民工接受补贴性职业技能培训 人社部门健全终身职业技能培训制度，实施"技能中国""技能照亮前程"等培训行动。"十四五"时期累计 超4200万人次企业职工、超3100万人次农民工接受补贴性职业技能培训。 "今年以来，部署开展大规模职业技能提升培训，计划利用3年时间，培训3000万人次。"人力资源社会 保障部副部长颜清辉说，"分类实施技能强企、农民工稳就业、百万青年技能提升等行动计划，2025年 上半年，参加补贴性培训的企业职工达214万人次，农民工、高 ...

Employment Situation - The employment situation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is generally stable, with a total of 59.21 million new urban jobs created, exceeding the target of 55 million [2][3] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has implemented various measures to support employment, including actions for advanced manufacturing, small and medium enterprises, and the elderly economy [2] Skills Training - Over 42 million enterprise employees and over 31 million migrant workers have received subsidized vocational skills training during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [3] - A large-scale vocational skills enhancement training program is planned to train 30 million people over three years, with specific actions for different groups [3] Social Security Funds - The three main social insurance funds (basic pension, unemployment, and work injury) have maintained a surplus, with a cumulative balance of 9.81 trillion yuan as of the end of August [7] - The basic pension insurance fund has achieved positive returns for eight consecutive years since its investment operation began in 2016, with an average annual return rate of 5.15% [7] Insurance Coverage - The number of people covered by basic pension insurance has reached 1.072 billion, with a participation rate exceeding 95% [6] - The pilot program for occupational injury insurance for new employment forms has expanded to 17 provinces, covering over 20 million new employment form workers [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant progress made in employment and social security during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period in China, with a focus on achieving high-quality development [1][2] - As of the end of August, urban new employment reached 59.21 million, exceeding the target of 55 million [1] - The average urban survey unemployment rate over the past four years was 5.3%, lower than the expected control target of 5.5% [1] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by the most substantial reforms in the social security sector, including nationwide coordination of basic pension insurance and provincial-level coordination of unemployment and work injury insurance [2] - The number of participants in the basic pension insurance reached 1.072 billion, an increase of over 73 million compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with the participation rate rising from 91% to over 95% [2] - The total scale of the three social insurance funds' income and expenditure reached 69.27 trillion yuan, with cumulative fund reserves of 9.81 trillion yuan, indicating a stable support capacity for social security [2]

9月26日，国务院新闻办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。"十四五"以来，截至今年 8月底，我国城镇新增就业累计达5921万人。 超额完成城镇新增就业目标 人力资源社会保障部部长王晓萍介绍，"十四五"时期就业局势总体稳定，超额完成城镇新增就业5500万 人的目标任务。累计支出就业补助资金超过4700亿元，发放稳岗返还资金1389亿元，年均创业担保贷款 余额3000亿元，年均支出就业补助资金超1000亿元。 "先后实施先进制造业促就业行动、专精特新中小企业就业扬帆计划、助力民营经济发展壮大、支持银 发经济发展等一系列举措，助力新业态新模式不断涌现，创造了更多高质量就业岗位。"王晓萍说。 "十四五"时期高校毕业生逐年增加，2022年起每年超千万人。人力资源社会保障部会同有关部门，拓宽 就业渠道，稳定青年就业局势。对以务工为主要收入的近3亿名农民工，深化东西部劳务协作，加大劳 务品牌培育，农民工就业增收之路越走越宽，脱贫人口务工规模保持在3000万人以上。 健全就业公共服务体系，构建"省市县乡村"五级服务网络，建成近9000家零工市场，推动服务资源向基 层延伸、向农村覆盖。建立全国统一的就业信息资 ...

黄金方面： 美联储理事米兰表示，如果美联储没有迅速下调利率，可能会对经济造成伤害，他主张实施一系列的大幅降息，以尽快回到中 性水平。在上周的议息会议上倾向于降息50个基点，并呼吁接下来两次降息125个基点。 瑞银全球财富管理首席投资办公室预测，美联储在未来几个月将会进一步降息，到2026年第一季度累计降息幅度将达到75个基 点。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，从8月22日美联储主席鲍威尔暗示降息之后，随着经济数据的走弱，降息的押注 持续上升，有利于黄金上涨。 技术面：黄金周线月线多头趋势，后续进一步上涨的概率大。小时图来看，黄金近几日维持震荡，对比此前的上涨来看，回调 幅度有限，多头依然占据优势，上方若突破3760美元则可以看向3790美元的前高点一线，下周有望冲击3850美元。 原油方面： 昨日（9月25日）晚间，美国第二季度实际GDP年化终值录得3.8%，高于预期和前值的3.3%。表明美国经济仍具有较强的韧性， 对全球投资者的信心有提振效果。 铜方面： 铜价昨日未能延续涨势，冲高回落，最高触及4.86美元的位置，昨日晚间跌破了从4.74美元的关键支撑，短线或将进一步下行。 日内上方关注4.74 ...

"十四五"以来中国城镇新增就业累计达5921万人 中新社北京9月26日电 (记者 谢雁冰)中国人力资源和社会保障部部长王晓萍26日在北京介绍，"十四 五"期间，就业局势总体稳定，就业结构持续优化，就业质量稳步提升。截至8月底，城镇新增就业累计 达到5921万人，超额完成5500万人的目标任务。 当天，中国国务院新闻办公室举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期 就业和社会保障工作高质量发展成就，王晓萍在会上发布上述信息。 她表示，"十四五"期间，中国累计支出就业补助资金超过4700亿元(人民币，下同)，发放稳岗返还资金 1389亿元。城镇调查失业率前四年均值为5.3%，低于5.5%的预期控制目标。就业稳，为稳定经济社会 发展大局提供了有力支撑。 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 中新经纬版权所有，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载、摘编或以其它方式使用。 关注中新经纬微信公众号(微信搜索"中新经纬"或"jwview")，看更多精彩财经资讯。 据了解，"十四五"期间，中国累计发布72个新职业，覆盖数字经济、现代服务、智能制造等行业。(完) 来源 ...

新华社快讯：人力资源社会保障部部长王晓萍9月26日在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列 主题新闻发布会上介绍，"十四五"期间，我国累计支出就业补助资金超过4700亿元，发放稳岗返还资金 超过1300亿元。经过各方共同努力，就业局势保持总体稳定，就业结构持续优化，就业质量稳步提升。 截至8月底，城镇新增就业累计达到5921万人，超额完成5500万人的目标任务。 ...

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a decline for the second consecutive day, with the Dow Jones falling by 171.50 points (0.37%) to 46121.28, the Nasdaq down 0.34% to 22497.86, and the S&P 500 decreasing by 0.28% to 6637.97, as investors reacted to cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1] - The materials sector led the decline, while the energy sector gained momentum due to a significant rise in oil prices [1] Key Company Performances - Tesla shares rose by 4.0%, while Microsoft increased by 0.2%. In contrast, Amazon fell by 0.2%, Apple and Nvidia dropped by 0.8%, and Google decreased by 1.8%. Oracle's stock fell by 1.7% amid reports of a $15 billion bond issuance plan [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 2.8%, with Alibaba rising by 8.2%, JD.com and Baidu up over 5%, and Pinduoduo increasing by 1.9%. However, NetEase saw a decline of 1.8% [2] Economic Data - In August, new home sales in the US rose to an annualized total of 800,000 units, up 20.5% from July's 664,000 units, exceeding market expectations [2] - The Mortgage Bankers Association reported a 0.6% increase in mortgage applications for the week ending last Friday, attributed to a decline in the average rate for 30-year fixed mortgages [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Powell's remarks indicated concerns over high asset valuations, suggesting a balancing act between addressing inflation risks and labor market weaknesses [2] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly mentioned the potential need for further rate cuts due to slowing economic growth and consumer spending [2] - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed caution, stating that the employment market remains stable and that premature rate cuts could be problematic [2] Commodity Market Movements - International oil prices reached a seven-week high, with WTI crude oil near-month contracts rising by 2.49% to $64.99 per barrel, and Brent crude increasing by 2.48% to $69.31 per barrel [4] - Gold prices fell from record highs, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery dropping by 1.28% to $3732.10 per ounce [4]