Core Insights - The integration of artificial intelligence (AI) across various industries is creating new job opportunities while raising concerns about job displacement due to automation [5][8][11]. Group 1: New Opportunities - New professions related to AI are emerging, such as service robot application technicians and AI trainers, potentially creating employment for 300,000 to 500,000 people per new role [6][11]. - The core AI industry in China has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, indicating a significant transformation in employment structures driven by AI [6]. - Job postings in the AI sector are projected to grow by 19% year-on-year by Q4 2025, with specific roles like algorithm engineers seeing increases of 110.1% [6][11]. Group 2: New Challenges - Concerns about job displacement are prevalent, particularly in industrial, standardized service, and data processing roles, as AI capabilities continue to advance [9][11]. - The rapid pace of AI technology development is shortening the skill retention period, challenging the traditional notion of lifelong skills [9][10]. - Workers transitioning to new roles may face difficulties due to the evolving job landscape and the need for continuous skill updates [10]. Group 3: New Landscape - Initiatives are being implemented to support AI skills training and job creation, including the establishment of AI talent demand forecasts and educational adjustments [12]. - Local governments are exploring various strategies, such as including AI application training in vocational training subsidies and developing integrated AI training systems in educational institutions [12]. - The use of AI in human resources is enhancing recruitment efficiency and improving job matching processes [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts in January 2026 is a neutral - slightly dovish move, continuing the liquidity - stabilizing framework. The meeting indicates an improved economic situation, and while rate hikes are off the table, future rate cuts may be considered if uncertainties decline. The weakening dollar situation remains unresolved, and the market should focus on the continuity of the weak dollar, geopolitical situations, and domestic economic policy directions [1][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Pre - meeting Concerns - The market widely expected the Fed to pause rate cuts in the January meeting. Data showed labor market cooling, lower - than - expected inflation, and economic resilience, all of which supported this view [2]. - Market expectations for Japan's expansionary fiscal policy, along with geopolitical and policy factors, led to a weaker dollar. Key meeting focuses include Powell's stance and signals about the next rate cut. The Fed's independence and the chairmanship nomination are also important issues [4]. Meeting Content - Compared with the December statement, the January statement showed a more optimistic view on the economy and employment, with a minor change in the inflation description. There were also differences in voting among Fed members, with some expressing more dovish stances [5]. - Powell emphasized in the press conference that inflation and employment risks have subsided to some extent, ruling out rate hikes and stating conditions for future rate cuts. He also mentioned his own tenure, Fed independence, and did not comment on the weak dollar [7]. Market Outlook - After the meeting, U.S. stocks and bonds changed little, the dollar rebounded slightly, and precious metals remained strong. Future macro - trends should be observed from three aspects: the continuity of the weak dollar and Fed chairmanship issues, the development of the Iran situation and the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation, and the direction of domestic economic policies [10]. - The overall pattern of a strong RMB remains unchanged, and the macro - liquidity environment for financial assets is positive. The existing market structure may continue but could be affected by geopolitical and economic policy factors [11].

事项： 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月29日 2026年01月30日 美国 1 月 FOMC 会议点评 降息的"两道门槛" 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 邵兴宇 | 010-88005483 | shaoxingyu@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070001 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 1 月 29 日，美联储议息会议宣布政策利率维持在 3.50-3.75%不变，降息暂停。 评论： 图1：1 月 FOMC 会议决议声明要点梳理 | 国信证券 | | 美联储议息会议实施说明要点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 维度 | 2026. 01 | 2025. 12 | 2025. ...

劳动关系和工资收入分配工作方面，将制定《新就业形态劳动者基本权益保障办法》，进一步明确新就 业形态劳动基准和企业劳动保护责任。出台《超龄劳动者基本权益保障暂行规定》。推动修订《职工带 薪年休假条例》，促进用人单位落实职工带薪年休假制度。完善最低工资标准调整机制，引导企业构建 技能导向的工资分配制度。当前，将全力做好治理欠薪冬季行动各项工作，努力实现查实的欠薪案件得 到实质性化解。 社会保障工作方面，将积极稳妥推进职业伤害保障试点，试点范围扩大到全国。扩大社保覆盖范围，鼓 励支持灵活就业人员、新就业形态人员参加职工保险。推动城乡居民养老保险应保尽保，指导各地落实 代缴城乡居民养老保险费等帮扶政策。 本报北京1月29日电 （记者邱超奕）在近日举行的人力资源社会保障部例行新闻发布会上，有关司局负 责人分析了2025年人力资源和社会保障工作进展情况，并介绍下一步重点工作安排。 就业工作方面，将着力构建就业友好型发展方式，实施稳岗扩容提质行动，推出重点行业就业支持举 措，出台应对人工智能影响促就业文件。制定实施就业优先战略"十五五"规划。开展好春风行动暨就业 援助季等公共就业招聘专项活动。 （文章来源：人民日报） ...

美联储主席鲍威尔表示，建议下一届美联储主席与美国政治"划清界限"。鲍威尔还表示，他和美联储其 他官员致力于维护美联储的独立性。他还对上周出席最高法院的口头辩论表示，此案"或许是美联储113 年历史上最重要的法律案件"，"我仔细考虑后认为，如果我不出席，可能很难解释清楚原因。" 来源：央视新闻、证券时报、新华社、市场公开信息 今日早盘金价突破5500美元关口。 美股方面，三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指涨0.02%报49015.6点，标普500指数跌0.01%报6978.03点，纳 指涨0.17%报23857.45点。大型科技股涨跌不一，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨0.19%，英伟达涨1.59%， 谷歌、微软、特斯拉均有小幅上涨。半导体股多数收涨，英特尔涨11%。 据新华社纽约1月28日电美国联邦储备委员会28日结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变。 会议纪要显示，现有指标表明，就业增长仍处于低位，失业率已显现出趋于稳定的迹象。通胀水平仍处 于较高水平。委员会致力于实现最大就业和长期通胀率达到2%的目标。经济前景的不确定性仍然很 高。委员会密切关注其双重使命面临的风险 ...

华尔街见闻 2026-01-29 09:22发布于广东华尔街见闻官方账号 鲍威尔记者会要点： 1、 货币政策： 鲍威尔表示，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。 2、 通胀： 通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退。至2025年12月，已经有12个月的核心PCE通胀率达到3%。通胀偏 高，在一定程度上体现出关税推高商品价格的影响。通胀预期体现出对2%目标有信心，长期通胀预期与目标保 持一致。还无法预先宣布抗击通胀取得胜利。 3、就业： 就业风险已经在一定程度上消退。失业率在一定程度上出现企稳迹象。在经历了逐步走软之后，劳动 力市场可能趋于稳定。招聘、职位空缺、薪资增速几乎都没有变化。 4、关税： 关税的大部分影响已经传导至经济，预计关税通胀将在2026年年中消退。如果我们看到关税影响的峰 值，表明我们可以放宽政策。 5、美元走软： 不予置评。并没有看到数据表明投资者对冲美元风险。不要过度解读贵金属释放的宏观信息。 6、 财政 ：美国债务路径毫无疑问是不可持续的。 7、 AI与科技： 短期内可能会看到人工智能（AI）消除就业岗位/AI导致岗位被淘汰。 8、 鲍威尔的去留与美联储独立性： 对于5月份主席任期届满之后的去留 ...

事件：北京时间1月29日凌晨3点，美联储公布1月议息会议决议。决议将基准利率维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，这是自2025年9月以来连续三次会议降息后首 次暂停，符合市场预期。会议以10-2的票比通过利率决定，理事米兰、沃勒支持降息25个基点。 核心结论：美联储如期暂停降息，决议中删除了有关就业下行风险的表述，同时对经济与就业的判断更偏稳健，显示在"双重使命"权衡中，政策关注点正 边际向通胀倾斜，整体基调中性偏鹰。会议过后，市场降息预期略微下调，利率期货隐含的3月降息概率不足20%、2026全年降息次数维持2次。继续提 示：2026年美国经济基本面无需大幅降息，但美联储独立性面临挑战、当前市场预期也计价不足；随着下任主席提名人选确定和更多经济数据公布，市场 就"宽松预期"可能出现激烈博弈，资产价格波动性可能提升。 1、美联储如期暂停降息，美联储主席人选之一沃勒投下反对票。声明有三处变化：1）对经济的看法从"温和扩张"转向"稳步扩张"；2）认为失业率出 现"企稳迹象"，较2025年12月强调就业下行风险的表述弱化；3）2025年12月有3人投反对票，分歧集中在"更大幅度降息"（米兰）与"不降息"（古尔斯比 和 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices have surpassed $5,600, with spot gold exceeding $5,500, marking a historical high for nine consecutive days [1] - The launch of the only gold mining ETF in Hong Kong, E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK), is set for January 30, providing investors with a tool to invest in leading global gold mining companies [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that inflation is primarily driven by tariffs rather than demand factors, leading to a rapid increase in spot gold prices after the announcement [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities highlights that gold prices have been reaching historical highs since 2025, influenced by factors such as de-dollarization, Federal Reserve independence, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation expectations [2] - Looking ahead to 2026, the allocation of gold as an alternative currency is expected to rise due to the restructuring of the global financial order and ongoing volatility in financial markets [2] - E Fund Gold Mining (2824.HK) focuses on the four major gold production regions and selects 30 leading gold mining stocks, including significant holdings in Zijin Mining and Zhaojin Mining, while also covering major overseas companies like Newmont and Barrick Gold [2]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]

北京时间1月29日凌晨，美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）公布最新利率决议，将联邦基金利率 目标区间维持在3.50%—3.75%不变，符合市场预期。这是美联储自去年9月起连续三次降息后的首次暂 停行动。 本次会议以10比2的投票结果通过，下任美联储主席人选之一的沃勒和美国总统特朗普"钦点"的另 一位理事米兰都支持继续降息，成为反对此次利率决议的少数派。 美联储声明和美联储主席鲍威尔的发言都暗示美联储并不急于降息，同时鲍威尔建议下一届美联储 主席与政治划清界限。 当天，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，道指涨0.02%，报49015.6点；标普500指数微跌0.01%， 报6978.03点；纳斯达克指数上涨0.17%，报23857.4点。美元指数反弹0.75% 现货黄金价格强势站上5400美元/盎司关口，日内暴涨约4.5%。 不急于降息 本次美联储声明对经济活动的表述从上个月的"温和速度扩张"，改为以"稳健的速度扩张"，删除了 就业风险增加的表述，只表示就业增长仍然缓慢，失业率已显现出一定的企稳迹象，通胀依然略高。 FOMC力求长期内实现最大化就业和2%的通胀率。经济前景的不确定性仍处于较高水平。委员会 密切关注 ...