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4月财政数据点评:收入改善,支出提速
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-21 08:42
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the broad fiscal revenue turned slightly positive, and the intensity of fiscal expenditure continued to increase. Looking ahead, both domestic and external demands are under pressure due to the fluctuating tariff policies, so incremental fiscal policies are still worth expecting [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - In April, the year - to - date tax revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time, the non - tax revenue growth rate declined, and the general budget revenue growth rate slightly increased. From January to April, the central general public budget revenue decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, while the local general public budget revenue increased by 2.2% year - on - year [1][10]. - In terms of taxes, personal income tax and enterprise income tax had relatively high growth rates. New - quality productivity supported tax growth. The government - funded revenue growth rate turned positive for the first time in nearly a year, which may be related to the improvement in land transactions at the beginning of the year and the lag in land transfer revenues, but its sustainability remains to be seen [2][12]. Expenditure Side - In April, the expenditure of the general public budget maintained a relatively high growth rate, and the expenditure growth rate of government - funded funds further increased, indicating that fiscal expenditure was front - loaded. Structurally, the expenditure on social sciences, culture, and education increased significantly [3][16]. - Measured by the broad deficit, fiscal efforts were intensified and were earlier than in previous years. As of April, the cumulative broad fiscal deficit was 2.65 trillion yuan, and the current cumulative broad deficit rate was 1.9%, higher than the same period from 2021 - 2024 and similar to that in 2020 [4][22].
3月财政数据点评:财政支出提速
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-04-20 07:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report In March, the growth of general fiscal revenue remained weak, while fiscal expenditure increased significantly. In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen in the future, including accelerating the issuance of government bonds within the budget and potentially expanding fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds [1][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Revenue Side - **General Public Budget Revenue**: In March 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value -1.6%), with tax revenue down 2.2% year-on-year (previous value -3.9%) and non-tax revenue up 5.9% year-on-year (previous value 11.0%). Central general public budget revenue decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, while local general public budget revenue increased by 2.79% [1][11]. - **Tax Revenue**: In March, tax revenue was down 2.2% year-on-year. Among the four major taxes, domestic VAT increased by 4.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.1% year-on-year), domestic consumption tax increased by 9.6% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 0.3% year-on-year), corporate income tax increased by 16.0% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.4% year-on-year), and personal income tax dropped by 58.5% year-on-year. Export tax rebates increased by 8.3% year-on-year, tariffs decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, real estate-related taxes decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 63.2% year-on-year [2][13]. - **Government Fund Revenue**: In March, government fund revenue decreased by 11.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months -10.7% year-on-year), mainly due to weak land transfer revenue. From January to March, government fund revenue decreased by 11% year-on-year. Although high-frequency land transaction data improved at the beginning of the year, the sustainability is expected to be limited [3][15]. Expenditure Side - **General Public Budget Expenditure and Government Fund Expenditure**: In March, general public budget expenditure increased by 5.7% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 3.4% year-on-year), and government fund expenditure increased by 27.9% year-on-year (1 - 2 months 1.2% year-on-year). From January to March, general public budget expenditure increased by 4.2% year-on-year, and government fund expenditure increased by 11.1% year-on-year [3][17]. - **Fiscal Expenditure Structure**: In March, the growth rate of traditional infrastructure expenditure was low, and the increase was mainly concentrated in social and cultural education and debt interest payments. Infrastructure fiscal expenditure increased by 0.49% year-on-year, with significant differences among sub - items. Expenditure on education, social security and employment, and debt interest payments had relatively high growth rates [4][17]. Fiscal Deficit As of March, the cumulative general fiscal deficit was 2.3 trillion yuan. Assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current cumulative general fiscal deficit rate is 1.6%, higher than in previous years and close to 2020, indicating increased fiscal efforts [4][25]. Future Outlook In the context of tariff policy shocks and limited urban investment financing, it is expected that fiscal policy will further strengthen. This includes accelerating the issuance of special treasury bonds and special bonds, and there is still room for further expansion of fiscal deficits, special bonds, and special treasury bonds. The subsequent Politburo meeting is an important observation window [5][30].
2025年1-2月财政数据快评:开年财政收入承压
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-25 01:16
证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据快评 开年财政收入承压 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师: | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码:S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人: | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项: 财政部发布 2025 年 1-2 月财政收支情况,全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元,同比-1.6%。其中税收收入 36349 亿元,同比-3.9%;非税收入 7507 亿元,同比 11%。一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元,同比 3.4%。中 央本级支出 5242 亿元,同比 8.6%;地方支出 39854 亿元,同比 2.7%。 评论: 与去年类似,开年财政收入承压,非税收入增速较 12 月大幅下滑。1-2 月收入同比-1.6%,去年实现 1.3%。 其中税收收入-3.9%,去年-3.4%。税收收入增速低于去年 12 月当月的 2.7%,显著回落;与非税收入 2024 年 ...