Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The recent active weight - reduction by groups, combined with the limited downstream digestion capacity during the off - season, has led to a rapid decline in spot prices, indicating that the previous price increase was mainly driven by inventory - building sentiment. The market's expectation of a price increase from late July to early August may result in more concentrated slaughter, causing the spot to remain weak. With strong macro - sentiment support for the far - end, the market is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,330 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,600 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 15,640 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 14,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,885 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2601 contract is 14,145 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 245 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 29,045 lots, a decrease of 4,243 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,199 lots, a decrease of 7,850 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 17,372 lots, an increase of 4,950 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 50,621 lots, an increase of 625 lots from the previous day. The trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 16,801 lots, an increase of 2,798 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 40,215 lots, a decrease of 1,637 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is 255 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 445 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 620 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2601 contract is 185 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 645 yuan/ton. The spread between LH2509 and LH2511 is 190 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 220 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2511 and LH2601 is - 260 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 25 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [3]. 3.3 Market Logic - The market is currently in a situation where groups are actively reducing weights, consumption is in the off - season, and downstream digestion is limited, leading to a weak spot market. The strong macro - sentiment supports the far - end, resulting in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the spread structure has switched to backwardation. Attention should be paid to stop - loss and take - profit for the short - term LH2509 contract, with a support level of 13,500 yuan/ton and a pressure level of 15,000 yuan/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, despite the lack of improvement in the nickel fundamentals, due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although there is no major change in the stainless - steel fundamentals, considering the long - term decline in stainless - steel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a weak reality and strong expectation situation has emerged. It is predicted that stainless - steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - **Price and Trading Volume**: On July 24, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2509 opened at 123,810 yuan/ton and closed at 124,360 yuan/ton, a 0.66% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 162,621 lots, and the open interest was 98,904 lots [1]. - **Market Trend**: The night session of the Shanghai nickel main contract quickly rose and then fell back and consolidated. The day session continued to rise slightly and then oscillated and fell, with a slight rebound in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume and open interest increased compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation was raised by about 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream brand quotations in the market all increased accordingly. The refined nickel spot premium mostly remained stable. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed, and the trading volume was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 1,950 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,971 tons, and LME nickel inventory was 204,456 tons, a decrease of 1,416 tons [2]. Nickel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Mainly operate within a range. - **Other Strategies**: No recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - **Price and Trading Volume**: On July 24, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,945 yuan/ton and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 144,303 lots, and the open interest was 120,333 lots [3]. - **Market Trend**: The night session of the stainless - steel main contract oscillated horizontally after opening, and the day session continued to oscillate, with a slight rise near the close in the afternoon, closing with a doji. The trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply - Side Situation**: In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, and a mine has offered a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat month - on - month. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions at + 23 - 28, but + 24 remained the mainstream premium. Recently, a nickel - iron plant in Indonesia had concentrated transactions at 920 - 922 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold), and the nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, with nickel - iron prices running steadily and slightly stronger [3]. - **Spot Market**: The spot trading became lighter due to the oscillation of the disk today, and the trading volume was average. The inventory decreased significantly this week, and the downstream replenishment was over. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,900 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 65 - 265 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 908.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - Steel Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Other Strategies**: No recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, which surged over 7% on July 24, driven by market sentiment and concerns over mining rights [1] - There are reports of a major mica mine potentially ceasing operations, although this information has not been confirmed, leading to heightened market speculation and emotional trading [1] - The current market for lithium is characterized by a "weak reality strong expectation" dynamic, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals, indicating a medium-term oversupply situation [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the sentiment and funding aspects are currently more influential on lithium prices than the fundamental factors, with a notable increase in open interest by over 110,000 contracts [1] - There is an expectation that concerns regarding mining rights will continue to develop until September, creating a window for market speculation [1] - The article advises investors to remain rational regarding market news and suggests a wait-and-see approach until short-term emotions subside before considering short positions [1]

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai Nickel opened at 123,890 yuan/ton and closed at 123,370 yuan/ton, a change of -0.06% from the previous trading day's close, with a trading volume of 133,758 lots and an open interest of 95,734 lots [1] - The main contract of Shanghai Nickel opened with a gap - up in the night session, quickly soared and then fell back, and consolidated at a high level. In the day session, it oscillated and declined, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, closing with a long - shadowed negative line. The trading volume and open interest decreased compared with the previous trading day [2] - On July 22, local time, US President Trump announced trade agreements with Japan and the Philippines. He also said he "might visit China in the near future". Vice - Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 - 30 [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Nickel's morning quotation was raised by about 500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream brand quotations in the market also increased accordingly. The premium of Jinchuan's ex - factory price over Shanghai Nickel declined. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the trading was average. The premium of Jinchuan Nickel changed from 0 to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed from 50 to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [2] - The previous trading day's Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,971 (- 122.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 205,872 (- 2,220) tons [2] Group 2: Nickel Strategy - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but the nickel price has fallen for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3] - For nickel trading strategies, it is mainly range - bound operation for single - side trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,890 yuan/ton and closed at 12,900 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 226,003 lots and an open interest of 122,384 lots [3] - The main contract of stainless steel quickly pulled up in the night session and then oscillated horizontally. In the day session, it oscillated and declined, and rebounded slightly in the afternoon, closing with a long - shadowed negative line. The trading volume increased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased [3] - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, and a mine has offered a price of FOB31 for 1.3% grade, which has declined month - on - month. In Indonesia, the weather has improved slightly, the nickel ore mining efficiency has increased, and the nickel ore market has weakened. The second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in July declined by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat month - on - month. There are obvious spreads in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 is still the mainstream premium [3] - Recently, a nickel - iron plant in Indonesia had concentrated transactions at 920 - 922 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron price is running steadily and slightly stronger [3] - In the spot market, the price oscillated and declined today, and the afternoon trading of spot goods weakened significantly. The daily trading was average, worse than the previous two days. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is also 12,900 yuan/ton. The SMM data shows that the ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 4.50 yuan/nickel point to 907.5 yuan/nickel point [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, but the stainless steel price has fallen for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4] - For stainless steel trading strategies, it is neutral for single - side trading, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of nickel have not improved, but due to the long - term decline in nickel prices and the recent shift in market macro - sentiment, a situation of weak reality and strong expectation has formed. It is expected that nickel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly. Similar to nickel, due to the long - term price decline and the shift in market macro - sentiment, it is expected that stainless steel prices will test the upper pressure in the near future [5]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2508 opened at 123,310 yuan/ton and closed at 123,530 yuan/ton, a change of 1.51% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 109,036 lots, and the open interest was 35,618 lots. The night - session opened with a gap - up and rose rapidly, then oscillated and declined after midnight. The day - session continued to oscillate and decline, and rebounded in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased slightly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [1][2]. - **Macro News**: Germany plans to invest 631 billion euros by 2028 to boost the economy. Brazil and the US may start a "tariff war". The EU is preparing to counter - attack. China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stability - growth work plans for ten key industries including non - ferrous metals [2]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation increased by about 700 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The prices of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The spot premium mostly remained stable, while the premiums of Huayou and Sumitomo resources decreased slightly. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. Jinchuan nickel's premium was 0 - 2000 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 0 - 350 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,093 (- 18.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 208,092 ( + 216) tons [2]. - **Strategy**: For nickel, the strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Market - **Market Performance**: On July 22, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2509 opened at 12,870 yuan/ton and closed at 12,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 192,092 lots, and the open interest was 124,058 lots. The night - session opened with a rapid rise and then oscillated horizontally. The day - session oscillated and declined, and recovered the morning's decline in the afternoon, closing with a long lower shadow yang line. The trading volume decreased compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest increased [3]. - **Supply and Demand News**: The 1.2 - trillion - yuan investment in Yajiang Hydropower is expected to drive stainless steel demand. In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold in August, with a 1.3% FOB31 quotation, showing a month - on - month decline. In Indonesia, the tight supply of nickel ore has been alleviated due to the production cuts of local smelters. The domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, with a basically flat month - on - month change. There was an obvious spread in the domestic trade premium, with transactions ranging from + 23 to + 28, but + 24 was still the mainstream premium. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines were converted to produce ferronickel, and some small smelters cut production. Some domestic smelters also shut down [3][4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market's afternoon trading was significantly better than the morning's, and the spot price increased slightly. The stainless steel price in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 12,900 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 120 - 320 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 903.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy**: For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is currently in a game between weak reality and strong expectations, with strong expectations prevailing. The policy of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel has boosted market sentiment, but the demand is in a seasonal weak period, and the inventory is expected to rise further [2]. - For iron ore, although it is in the consumption off - season and the iron - water output is expected to decline, the rising prices of related products such as rebar, coking coal, and glass will support the iron - ore price in the short term, and the decline in port inventory also provides support [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Policy and Market Sentiment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth work plan for ten key industries, which has boosted market sentiment and led to a pulsed rise in futures prices [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The output of rebar decreased last week, the factory inventory decreased, the social inventory continued to rise, and the total inventory increased. The apparent demand decreased month - on - month, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The demand for the plate sector is better than that for building materials. In the summer high - temperature season, demand will weaken further, and inventory is expected to rise [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen sharply, continuing the previous medium - term upward trend and showing strong short - term performance [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude. After adjustment, consider buying on dips, and be cautious about chasing high prices [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees, with the hot - rolled coil futures closing price rising by 3.60% week - on - week and the spot price rising by 3.64% [2]. - **Production**: The national building - material steel mill rebar output decreased by 3.51% week - on - week, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of rebar increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 4.30% week - on - week; the social inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 0.80% week - on - week, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.64% week - on - week [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, and the iron - water output of 247 steel mills increased by 1.10% week - on - week last week. However, it is in the consumption off - season, and the iron - water output is expected to decline. The global iron - ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade - ore inventory is relatively high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price has risen strongly, breaking through the suppression of multiple resistance levels above [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude, be cautious about chasing high prices, and wait patiently for the price to pull back before buying on dips [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: Iron - ore spot and futures prices have increased, with the DCE iron - ore main - contract settlement price rising by 5.54% week - on - week [4]. - **Shipment**: The Australian iron - ore shipment decreased by 10.51% week - on - week, and the Brazilian iron - ore shipment increased by 17.37% week - on - week [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 0.14% week - on - week, and the port trade - ore inventory decreased by 0.50% week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Industry News - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2511.8 million tons, a decrease of 371.4 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2371.2 million tons, a decrease of 290.9 million tons month - on - month; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1389.2 million tons, an increase of 241.3 million tons month - on - month [7]. - From July 14th to July 20th, 2025, the global iron - ore shipment volume was 3109.1 million tons, an increase of 122.0 million tons month - on - month. The total shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2552.0 million tons, a decrease of 6.8 million tons month - on - month [7]. - On July 21st, the China Coking Industry Association Market Committee decided to raise the price of tamping wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and the price of tamping dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton for steel - mill customers starting from July 22nd [7]. - In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative iron - ore loading volume was 2466.24 million tons, with a daily average loading volume of 176.16 million tons/day, a 3.21% increase compared to the same period last year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the real - estate data in Q2 and H1 2025 is still weak, indicating the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, with the strong expectation mainly coming from potential supply - side reforms. For now, the steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of hot weather, demand is expected to weaken further and inventory may rise slightly. In the short - term, the iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, supported by the decline in port inventory, but the high inventory of port trade minerals should be noted [2][4]. Summary by Directory I. Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Conditions**: The real - estate data is weak, and the central urban work conference did not bring the expected major positive news. Supply and demand are both weak. Last week, threaded rod production decreased, factory inventory rose, social inventory continued to decline, and total inventory also decreased. Apparent demand decreased month - on - month. With hot weather, demand will weaken further and inventory may rise slightly. The market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations, and the futures price has stopped falling and continued the previous medium - term upward trend [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Data Summary**: The closing price of the threaded rod main contract is 3106 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from the previous day and up 1.40% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3253 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day and up 1.97% from last week. The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.46%, and the daily average molten iron output is 239.81 million tons, down 0.43% from last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded rod production is 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil production is 323.14 million tons, down 1.52% from last week [2]. II. Iron Ore - **Market Conditions**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, with the profit - making surface of sample steel mills approaching 60%. Last week, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 239.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.0 million tons from the previous week. It is expected that the molten iron output will further decline in the near future. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally. The port inventory is slowly decreasing, which supports the futures price, but the port trade mineral inventory is high. In the short - term, boosted by the rising prices of threaded rods, coking coal, and glass, iron ore is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily maintain a wait - and - see attitude and be cautious about chasing up [4]. - **Data Summary**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 773 yuan/dry ton, up 0.78% from the previous day and up 4.96% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments are 15.699 billion tons, down 0.97% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments are 7.099 billion tons, up 22.63% from last week. The port inventory is 137.6589 billion tons, down 0.81% from last week [4]. III. Industry News - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in early July 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, a 1.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.31 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.931 million tons, a 1.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 19.88 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.988 million tons, an 11.9% decrease in daily output month - on - month. It is estimated that the national daily output of crude steel is 2.71 million tons, a 1.5% decrease; the daily output of pig iron is 2.36 million tons, a 1.1% decrease; and the daily output of steel is 4.09 million tons, a 2.9% decrease [6]. - UMK announced its manganese ore quotation for China in August 2025, with the price of South African semi - carbonate lumps at 3.9 US dollars/ton degree (up 0.05) [7]. - Rio Tinto released its Q2 production and sales report. In terms of production, the iron ore output of the Pilbara business in Q2 was 83.7 million tons, a 20% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 5% increase year - on - year. In terms of shipments, the iron ore shipments of the Pilbara business in Q2 were 79.9 million tons, a 13% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 1% decrease year - on - year [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Steel Products**: The steel market is currently trading on weak reality and strong expectations. The real - estate data is still weak, and the industry is in the process of bottom - building. The steel market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and with the arrival of high - temperature weather, demand is expected to weaken further, and inventory may rise slightly. Strong expectations mainly come from potential supply - side reforms. Technically, the futures prices face resistance after a pulsed rise [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term iron ore market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend under the boost of news. However, in the long - term, the futures price is in a downward cycle. With the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline, and the relatively high port inventory and trade ore inventory ratio put pressure on the price [4]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Threaded Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Background**: The economic data for the second quarter and the first half of 2025 shows that the real - estate industry is still weak. The Central Urban Work Conference did not bring the expected major positive news. The supply - demand data from My Steel shows a state of weak supply and demand [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a pulsed rise, the futures prices encounter resistance, with the previous gap and the annual line as resistance levels [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The closing prices of threaded bar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices show certain fluctuations. For example, the closing price of the threaded bar futures main contract is 3114 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous day [2]. - **Production**: The production of threaded bars and hot - rolled coils decreased last week. The national building materials steel mill threaded bar production was 216.66 million tons, down 2.00% from the previous week [2]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products decreased, with the social inventory of threaded bars decreasing and the factory inventory increasing slightly [2]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume in the spot market decreased, such as the 7 - day moving average of the national building steel trading volume being 18.67 million tons, down 13.38% from the previous day [2]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but with the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions, iron ore demand is expected to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a relatively high level and rising seasonally, and the port inventory decline rate is slowing down, which puts pressure on prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price is in a long - term downward cycle, and the recent short - term rise is mainly affected by news, facing resistance from the previous gap and the annual line [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract is 767 yuan/dry ton, up 4.64% from the previous week. Different iron ore powder prices in ports also show various changes [4][5]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment is rising, with Australian shipments at 1569.9 million tons, down 0.97% from the previous week, and Brazilian shipments at 709.9 million tons, up 22.63% from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory is 13765.89 million tons, down 0.81% from the previous week, and the trade ore inventory ratio is relatively high [5]. **III. Industry News** - The price of coke has been raised, with wet - quenched coke prices in Tangshan and Xingtai rising by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke prices rising by 55 yuan/ton. Some steel mills in Shandong have also raised their coke purchase prices [7]. - The first round of coke price increases has been fully implemented, and the price of coking coal in some origin auctions has risen significantly. The import Mongolian coal market has high - level quotations with limited transactions. The three major ports have resumed normal customs clearance, and the inventory at the Ganqimaodu Port has dropped to 3 million tons [7]. - From January to June, the national real - estate development investment was 4665.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.1% year - on - year [7].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **real estate** and **bond markets** in China, highlighting the interplay between monetary policy, market sentiment, and urban renewal initiatives. Key Points and Arguments Bond Market Adjustments - The bond market is experiencing adjustments due to multiple factors, including a recovery in liquidity, increased stock market risk appetite, and expectations surrounding urban renewal policies. The central bank's reverse repos have tightened liquidity, with R01 returning to **1.4%** and one-year deposit rates rising to **1.62%** [1][3]. - Future liquidity tightening is expected to ease due to seasonal factors and increased fiscal spending, with a low likelihood of significant liquidity tightening [1][6]. - The bond market's adjustment is also influenced by the performance of the stock market, particularly the real estate sector, which has seen a **3%** increase in A-shares [2][3]. Urban Renewal Policies - Urban renewal policies have an uncertain impact on the real estate market. Relaxing purchase restrictions and lowering down payments have limited effects, as residents are less inclined to view housing as an investment [1][7]. - The reliance on special bonds for urban renewal projects faces challenges due to the balance between demolition costs and potential returns, making significant short-term impacts unlikely [1][9][10]. - The implementation of urban renewal projects is slow, often taking **three to five years** from demolition to sale, which limits their immediate effect on the housing market [10]. Credit and Valuation Risks in Real Estate - Current credit risks in the real estate market are manageable, with leading developers facing lower financing costs and limited asset depreciation potential. However, valuation risks remain, particularly if sales plans fall short of expectations [11][12]. - The focus is on developers with strong local government support, as they present better investment opportunities compared to those under financial pressure [12]. Market Sentiment and Future Expectations - The market is characterized by a "weak reality, strong expectation" phase, where current conditions do not reflect the optimistic expectations for future performance [13][23]. - If expectations do not materialize, there could be further downward pressure on interest rates. The current environment is more favorable than previous periods, suggesting potential buying opportunities [13][23]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may act preemptively to stabilize the market. An increase in bond demand is anticipated in August, with potential easing of liquidity [4][16]. - The issuance of government bonds is expected to improve in the second half of the year, with a reduction in supply and an increase in demand likely to stabilize interest rates [17]. Machine Learning Insights - Machine learning models indicate that key variables affecting global yields include real estate transaction volumes and land premium rates, which significantly influence the fundamentals and the bond market [22]. Policy Expectations - There are expectations for gradual relaxation of restrictive policies, but the core issue remains whether the housing market will leverage or de-leverage. The emotional impact of policy changes is more significant than their practical effects [19][20]. Other Important Insights - The current market sentiment is influenced by fear and uncertainty, with potential for short-term volatility in interest rates. However, the overall economic conditions suggest that significant highs are unlikely [18]. - The PBOC's potential reactivation of government bond trading is anticipated, which could further influence market dynamics [25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the real estate and bond markets, their interdependencies, and the broader economic implications.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The recent rise in black - series commodity prices may not be sustainable as the main goal of the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting is anti - involution in downstream manufacturing rather than supply - side reform in the black and building materials industries. The real estate market is still in the process of bottoming out, and the current market is trading on weak reality and strong expectations [2]. - For iron ore, with the end of the downstream consumption peak and steel mill production restrictions, iron ore production is expected to decline. Although it may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term, it is in a long - term downward cycle [5]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Analysis**: The May economic data was slightly below expectations, and the June PMI improved. The real estate market is still bottoming out, with the total sales of top 100 real estate enterprises from January to June down 11.8% year - on - year. The supply - demand situation shows weak supply and demand, and demand is expected to weaken further with high - temperature weather. Technically, it's uncertain whether the futures price can break through upwards [2]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be held and should be closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [3]. - **Data Highlights**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3063 yuan/ton, up 2.00% from last week; the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3191 yuan/ton, up 1.75% from last week. The national building materials steel trading volume (7 - day moving average) was 16.05 tons, down 20.54% from last week [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The profitability of steel mills is acceptable, but iron ore production is expected to decline due to the end of the consumption peak and production restrictions. The global shipment is high, and port inventory decline is slowing, putting pressure on futures prices. It may maintain a slightly stronger oscillation in the short term but faces resistance [5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term long positions can be lightly held and closed at high prices. The medium - term strategy is to wait for the top signal and then short at high prices [5]. - **Data Highlights**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 733 yuan/dry ton, up 3.46% from last week. Australian iron ore shipments were 1585.2 tons, down 8.40% from last week; Brazilian shipments were 578.9 tons, down 25.47% from last week [5]. 3.3 Industry News On July 9, in the Lvliang coking coal online auction market, the average transaction price of Lishi low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1123 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan/ton from the previous period on June 25 [7].