1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the given reports 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: High - altitude operation is recommended as geopolitical premiums are being squeezed out, and supply pressure is rising. Consider short - selling with a light position. SC should be monitored in the range of [485 - 500] [1][5] - **LPG**: The market is in consolidation. Sell call options. PG should be monitored in the range of [4100 - 4200] [1][7] - **L**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Upstream enterprises can sell - hedge when appropriate. L should be monitored in the range of [7000 - 7200] [1][11] - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. The fundamental upward momentum is insufficient. Consider short - selling on rebounds. Downstream enterprises can buy - hedge when appropriate. PP should be monitored in the range of [6900 - 7000] [1][13] - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. The upward driving force is insufficient. Participate in the short - term. V should be monitored in the range of [4750 - 4850] [1][15] - **PX**: Cautiously go long at low levels. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out long positions on pullbacks. PX should be monitored in the range of [6500 - 6620] [1][16] - **PTA**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. TA should be monitored in the range of [4590 - 4690] [1][19] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Pay attention to opportunities to lay out short positions at high levels. EG should be monitored in the range of [4220 - 4280] [1][21] - **Glass**: The price is expected to decline under pressure. FG should be monitored in the range of [960 - 990], and it will face resistance at the 1000 - level [2][26] - **Soda Ash**: The market remains weak. After a narrow - range shock, it will continue the bearish trend, suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages. SA should be monitored in the range of [1140 - 1180] [2][29] - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving averages. SH should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2310] [2][32] - **Methanol**: Bearish consolidation. Consider laying out short positions at high levels. MA should be monitored in the range of [2260 - 2290] [2][33] - **Urea**: The price is relatively weak, but the downside space is limited. Be cautious when short - selling. UR should be monitored in the range of [1620 - 1650] [2] - **Asphalt**: Bearish consolidation. The valuation is high, and the cost is falling. Try short - selling with a light position. BU should be monitored in the range of [3475 - 3545] [2] 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Supply**: EIA's latest monthly report shows that US crude oil production will decrease from 13.42 million barrels per day this year to 13.37 million barrels per day in 2026, while global crude oil production is expected to increase to 104.4 million barrels per day [5] - **Demand**: In May, China's crude oil imports were 46.6 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 229.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. IEA maintains the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 740,000 barrels per day and raises the demand growth in 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 760,000 barrels per day [5] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432.4 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels to 229.8 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1.246 million barrels to 108.8 million barrels [5] LPG - **Cost and Profit**: As of June 11, the PDH device profit was - 1016 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 42 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit was - 210.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: As of the week ending June 13, the total LPG commodity volume was 529,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8500 tons, and the civil LPG commodity volume was 228,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4100 tons [8] - **Demand**: As of the week ending June 13, the operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil were 64.30%, 59.70%, and 47.14% respectively, with week - on - week changes of + 1.29pct, + 4.98pct, and - 0.40pct [8] - **Inventory**: As of the week ending June 13, refinery inventories were 169,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7200 tons, and port inventories were 2.928 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 142,400 tons [8] L - **Supply**: This week's production increased by 3% month - on - month, and with many downstream device restart plans, production is expected to continue to increase [11] - **Inventory**: Social inventories have started to accumulate, and in the off - season of agricultural film demand, downstream restocking motivation is insufficient, with a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [11] PP - **Supply**: Weekly production has increased, but with more short - term maintenance devices next week, production is expected to decline. There is high pressure from new device production in June - July, and supply is abundant [13] - **Demand**: It is the domestic off - season, export margins are low, and overseas market transactions are weak, resulting in increased supply and decreased demand [13] - **Inventory**: There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the middle reaches [13] PVC - **Supply**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend. A 300,000 - ton new device of Shaanxi Jintai was put into operation at the beginning of the month, and more device maintenance is expected next week, with a possible further reduction in supply [15] - **Demand**: Southern demand has declined marginally due to the rainy season, but weekly export orders have remained above 20,000 tons. The fundamentals show weak supply and demand [15] PX - **Supply**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased, leading to increased supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 83.4% (+ 4.8pct), and the weekly output is 700,000 tons (+ 40,000 tons) [17] - **Demand**: Downstream PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and there are production plans in June, with improved demand expectations [17] - **Inventory**: In April, PX inventories decreased to 4.2503 million tons (- 427,700 tons), which is lower than the same period last year but still at a high level in the past five years [17] PTA - **Supply**: PTA maintenance devices have restarted, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The weekly operating rate is 79.0% (+ 1.4pct), and the weekly output is 1.371 million tons (+ 23,000 tons) [19] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise, and terminal weaving orders have decreased [19] - **Inventory**: PTA social inventories have continued to decline. The available days of social inventories are 12.3 days (- 0.3 days), and the social inventory in April was 4.25 million tons (- 554,000 tons) [19] Ethylene Glycol - **Supply**: There has been an increase in device maintenance, and the arrival volume is low, alleviating supply pressure. The weekly maintenance loss is 290,000 tons (+ 5000 tons), and the daily output is 47,200 tons (+ 1000 tons) [22] - **Demand**: The operating loads of downstream polyester and terminal weaving continue to decline. Polyester product weighted inventories have stopped falling and started to rise [22] - **Inventory**: Social inventories are in a de - stocking trend, and port inventories are low compared to the same period [22] Glass - **Macro Environment**: The decline in China's PPI has widened, and the deflation pattern in industrial products has not been alleviated. The construction PMI has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 51, and the mid - term demand for glass is shrinking [26] - **Supply**: In the short - term rainy season and high - temperature period, coal - fired production lines still have profits, making it difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. Supply - side start - up and daily melting volume are fluctuating at a low level [26] - **Demand**: Upstream inventories have started to increase, mid - stream trader inventories are being de - stocked, and downstream deep - processing orders are lower than the same period. Spot market quotes have generally been lowered [26] Soda Ash - **Supply**: Alkali plant maintenance devices are gradually restarting, and new production capacity is being put into production, increasing market supply pressure [29] - **Demand**: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased, and the photovoltaic installation boom has subsided, resulting in insufficient rigid demand support for soda ash [29] - **Inventory**: Alkali plant inventory removal speed has slowed down, and the total inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical periods [29] Caustic Soda - **Supply**: There has been a lot of device maintenance in the caustic soda market recently, but the maintenance scale in June is smaller than last month, and there is still pressure from new production. Supply is expected to gradually recover in the middle and later part of the month [32] - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated. The production of downstream alumina in Shandong supports prices, but non - aluminum markets are观望. Non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices, and overall demand support for prices is limited [32] - **Inventory**: Liquid caustic soda sample enterprise factory inventories are 405,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 2.3% [32] Methanol - **Supply**: The profit of coal - made methanol is relatively good, and the device operating load remains high. The expected arrival of Iranian methanol has been gradually realized, and non - Iranian supplies have increased, increasing supply pressure [2] - **Demand**: The operating load of MTO devices has continued to recover, but with poor profits, the space for further load increase is limited. Traditional demand is in a seasonal off - season [2] - **Inventory**: Inventories are accumulating, and the arbitrage window between coastal and inland methanol remains closed, with inland enterprise inventories increasing [2] Urea - **Supply**: Daily production remains at a high level, and supply pressure is relatively large [2] - **Demand**: It is currently the off - season for domestic agricultural urea consumption. After the end of the southern rainy season, the demand for top - dressing corn and fertilizing rice in the north is expected to be realized, and industrial demand is neutral. Fertilizer exports have grown rapidly this year [2] - **Cost**: The overall cost is weak, but there is still bottom - end support [2] Asphalt - **Supply**: Supply has increased, and inventories have accumulated [2] - **Demand**: There is rigid demand in the north, but demand in the south is expected to decline due to the rainy season, showing a "strong north, weak south" pattern [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the caustic soda in the alumina industry chain is "Long" [1] - The investment rating for alumina in the alumina industry chain is "Bullish" [3] - The investment rating for aluminum in the alumina industry chain is "Oscillating Bullish" [4] 2. Core Views - For caustic soda, influenced by the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the futures price continues to rise, with good fundamentals. There may be a short - term correction after a significant increase, and a long - term bullish view is maintained, with short - term prices expected to oscillate slightly [1] - For alumina, the industry's supply - demand situation has improved, supporting the price. It is expected that the alumina price will oscillate slightly higher in the short term, and the actual production capacity changes should be monitored [3] - For aluminum, due to the improvement of international trade and domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals, the aluminum price is supported. After the release of the US April CPI data, the market sentiment may change. The continuous decline of domestic aluminum ingot inventory has raised some concerns, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda 3.1.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose during the day, fell after the night - session opening, and closed at 2533 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 1.85%. The trading volume was 70.64 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 2.046 million lots, an increase of 23,450 lots; the trading volume was 52.676 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - The weekly caustic soda operating rate was 85.39%, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic caustic soda output was 829,500 tons, a 0.22% increase from the previous week - The weekly domestic factory inventory was 249,100 tons, a 1.66% decrease from the previous week - The weekly cost per hundred tons was 182.51 yuan/ton, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week; the gross profit per hundred tons was 1,189.8 yuan/ton, a 0.25% decrease from the previous week [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - The average price of the domestic 32% liquid caustic soda market was 950.46 yuan/ton, a 3.48 - yuan or 0.37% increase from the previous statistical day. The domestic liquid caustic soda spot market transaction price continued to rise. The North China market had good transactions, supported by alumina demand orders and recent chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with a good supply - demand situation. Other regions had stable transactions, with low inventory pressure and active sales [1] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Hold low - position long orders [1] 3.2 Alumina 3.2.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2509 contract rose in the afternoon, slightly declined at night, and closed at 2832 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.60%. The trading volume was 95.49 million lots, a slight decrease from the previous trading day; the open interest was 3.842 million lots, a decrease of 1735 lots; the trading volume was 53.764 billion yuan, a slight decrease from the previous trading day [3] 3.2.2 Important Information - Last week, the domestic alumina factory inventory was 1.585 million tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 76,000 tons, a 52% increase from the previous week - This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.6374 million tons, a 4.6% decrease from the previous week, and the weekly operating utilization rate was 77.2%, a 7.36% decrease - The average reference production cash cost of the domestic alumina industry was 3332.86 yuan/ton, a 0.11% decrease from the previous week; the industry gross profit was - 436.59 yuan/ton, a 1.19% increase from the previous week [3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - The average price of the spot market was 2905.71 yuan/ton, an 11.68 - yuan or 0.40% increase from the previous trading day. The spot market inventory continued to decline, and the spot transaction price was at a premium to the futures price. The overall supply has not changed recently, and the industry operating rate remained at 78.25%. The spot market transactions increased recently, with prices ranging from 2900 - 2960 yuan/ton, boosting market sentiment. Overseas, the alumina market supply was tight, supporting price increases, but the domestic alumina export advantage was limited, and the import - export pattern has not changed in the short term [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [3] 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Market Review - The previous trading day's futures main 2506 contract continued to rise, jumped and then corrected at night, and closed at 19,935 yuan/ton, up 180 yuan/ton or 0.91%. The trading volume was 40.43 million lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day; the open interest was 5.492 million lots, a decrease of 22,204 lots; the trading volume was 39.866 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous trading day [4] 3.3.2 Important Information - The weekly bauxite output was 1.124 million tons, a 1.72% increase from the previous week - The weekly electrolytic aluminum output was 84.07 tons, unchanged from the previous week - This week, the industry production cost was 16,794.64 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease from the previous week. The industry average gross profit was 2876.67 yuan/ton, a 7.33% decrease from the previous week - The factory inventory during the week was 55,200 tons, a 14.95% decrease from the previous week; the market inventory was 65,200 tons, a 3.13% decrease from the previous week; the LME inventory was 403,500 tons, a 0.5% decrease from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 65,000 tons, a 1.65% decrease from the previous week - On May 9th, the LME aluminum price rose, ranging from 2399 - 2440 US dollars/ton, and closed at 2418 US dollars/ton, up 9.5 US dollars/ton or 0.39% [4] 3.3.3 Market Logic - The international trade situation has improved significantly, with the easing of Sino - US tariffs and a positive international macro - situation, boosting commodity prices, and both domestic and foreign aluminum prices have risen. Domestically, the aluminum ingot inventory has decreased again. According to the CPCA, the cumulative retail sales of new - energy passenger cars from January to April were 3.324 million units, a 35.7% increase, and new - energy vehicle consumption continues to support the rise of the aluminum price. Domestic macro - policies and supply - demand fundamentals support the aluminum price [4] 3.3.4 Trading Strategy - Sell put options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, polysilicon showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 36,410 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.39%, and the open interest decreased by 510 lots to 53,756 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon price was 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract widened to 4,090 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon also showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 closed at 8,325 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.57%, and the open interest increased by 12,934 lots to 17,950 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,637 yuan/ton, down 128 yuan/ton from the last trading day before the holiday. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 280 yuan/ton. Before the holiday, traders cleared their inventories and pressured prices, and the downstream's willingness to stock up was lower than in previous years. After the holiday, the downstream demand still faced the pressure of a slowdown. Industrial silicon was affected by the negative feedback from the downstream and was difficult to get out of the bottom-finding rhythm. The adjustment flexibility of polysilicon production was relatively high, and the space for a sharp decline after the holiday was relatively limited compared with industrial silicon, mainly showing a narrow correction. Opportunities for the convergence of the spread between near and far months could be considered. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale infrastructure or mandatory photovoltaic installation assessment policies will be newly introduced after the decline of distributed photovoltaics, which may trigger an oversold rebound [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 175 yuan/ton to 8,370 yuan/ton. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions generally declined, with a decrease of 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 125 yuan to 280 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 69,236, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFE) inventory decreased by 1,330 tons to 346,180 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 5,900 tons to 244,100 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 7,900 tons to 409,100 tons [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts decreased by 835 yuan/ton to 36,410 yuan/ton. The polysilicon spot prices remained unchanged. The current lowest deliverable price remained at 40,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened by 835 yuan to 4,090 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 30, the GFE inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 90,000 tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.37 million tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 28.4 million tons [4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC price in the East China market remained unchanged at 12,000 yuan/ton, the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained unchanged, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,200 yuan/ton to 15,000 yuan/ton [4]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained unchanged [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices**: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][13]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [16][18][20]. - **Inventory**: Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [23][26]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [29][31][32].