Core Viewpoint - Recent adjustments in mortgage rates in cities like Guangzhou and Xiamen indicate a potential strategy to maintain stability in the face of expected LPR reductions, with banks aiming to keep rates above 3% to avoid profit erosion [1][2][3] Group 1: Mortgage Rate Adjustments - Guangzhou has raised the first home loan interest rate from LPR-60 basis points to LPR-50 basis points, increasing the rate from 3.0% to 3.1% [1] - Xiamen has also adjusted its mortgage rates, increasing the first home loan interest rate from LPR-50 basis points to LPR-45 basis points, resulting in a rise from 3.10% to 3.15% [1] - The adjustments are seen as a proactive measure to prevent rates from falling below 3% in anticipation of a potential LPR decrease [2][3] Group 2: Implications of LPR Changes - Analysts suggest that if LPR decreases by 10 basis points, many cities could see mortgage rates drop into the "2" range, enhancing affordability and accessibility for borrowers [3] - The current mortgage rate environment is historically low, and banks are adjusting rates to maintain stability while still allowing for potential LPR reductions [2][3] Group 3: Banking Sector Impact - A decline in mortgage rates could pressure banks' net interest margins, with the average mortgage rate for new loans nearing 3% following LPR adjustments [4] - The net interest margin for commercial banks is projected to fall to 1.52% by the end of 2024, marking a historical low, prompting regulatory attention on banks' profitability [5]

近日，市场消息称，广州地区首套房贷利率将上浮10个基点，从此前执行的LPR-60个基点，统一调整 为LPR-50个基点。 "近期，央行发布一揽子货币政策措施，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，预计将带动LPR同步下行约0.1个百 分点。"上述专家表示，广东地区部分银行基于对成本收益、风险溢价、可持续发展等因素的考量，小 幅回调了最低房贷利率的加减点幅度。房贷利率调整是商业银行基于经营成本和市场供需情况进行的定 价调整，动态调整房贷利率，是市场自主行为，也是正常的经营决策，有利于商业银行更加合理地进行 市场定价，兼顾支持实体经济和可持续经营。 "事实上，考虑到LPR可能跟进政策利率下调10个基点，届时房贷利率最低将仍维持在3%，保持平稳。 这意味着，存量房贷客户将直接受益于LPR下调，新增申请客户则基本维持原有利率水平。总体来看， 房贷利率水平是下行的，对市场影响趋于正面，更多体现为政策'微调'与市场信心的稳定传导。"上述 专家称。 南方财经全媒体记者 庞成 广州报道 不过，市场亦普遍预期，5月20日公布的贷款市场报价利率（LPR）有望下调10个基点。这意味着5年期 LPR可能从现行的3.6%降至3.5%。若按此计算 ...

Core Viewpoint - Homebuyers remain highly sensitive to interest rates, with recent reports indicating an increase in the first mortgage rate in Guangzhou by 10 basis points to 3.1% (LPR - 50 basis points) [1] Group 1 - The recent news about the mortgage rate adjustment in Guangzhou has not been officially confirmed due to the timing of the announcement coinciding with a weekend [1] - Local mortgage and real estate intermediaries express uncertainty regarding the rate changes, emphasizing the need for official confirmation [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and is maintained [12]. Core Insights - The policy goal of stabilizing the market has become more proactive, and market expectations have improved, although marginal downward pressure has increased since April [5]. - The rapid decline phase in the industry regarding volume and price may have passed, with structural highlights in core areas and quality properties [5]. - The importance of real estate to the economic internal circulation cannot be overlooked, emphasizing the need to focus on quality real estate companies with core assets and stable cash flows [5]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index increased by 0.92% this week, with a year-to-date decline of 5.57%, ranking 30 out of 32 industries [6][15]. - The performance of the sector has been poor, with declines primarily in development and property management companies, while rental companies showed mixed results [6]. Policy Updates - The central bank announced interest rate cuts, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy rates, expected to lead to a similar decline in LPR [7]. - Local policies in Guangdong aim to better meet housing consumption needs and support the transformation of urban villages [7]. Sales Data - Recent new home registrations in sample cities showed fluctuations, with new home transaction area down by 3.0% year-on-year, while second-hand homes saw a 16.0% increase [8]. - As of May 9, the new home transaction area in 37 cities showed a month-on-month increase of 15.8% [8]. Mortgage Rate Insights - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers in key cities is around 3.1%, expected to decrease to approximately 3.0% following policy rate adjustments [9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of rental-to-sale ratios and actual interest rates in determining the appropriateness of mortgage rates [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a temporary increase in home sales in the U.S. due to a brief decline in mortgage rates, with the March pending home sales index rising to 76.5, a 6.1% month-over-month increase, marking the largest increase in 2023 [1] - The pending home sales index is still 0.1% lower year-over-year, indicating cautious consumer sentiment despite the recent uptick in sales [1] - The Southern region of the U.S. saw a significant 9.8% increase in signed contracts in March, the largest increase since June 2020, while the Northeast experienced a slight decline [3] Group 2 - Despite the increase in sales, homebuyers continue to face high housing costs, with the median sales price of existing homes rising 44% compared to March 2020 [2] - The supply of existing homes is beginning to improve as more homeowners accept the reality of sustained high mortgage rates and are willing to list their properties for sale [2] - There is a notable decline in home prices in various cities, particularly in the Sun Belt states, with 11 out of the 50 largest U.S. cities experiencing a drop in annual median home prices, the highest number since September 2023 [3]

今晚写夜报前看major决赛的直播，这是cs全年最重要的比赛，冠军奖金50万美元。我从2000年就开始玩这游戏，24年了，一直到现在都经常和哥们组 排，但水平已经不行了，就纯娱乐。 决赛是俄罗斯的spirit对阵欧洲的faze，前面两张图打成1:1，最后决胜图是全世界玩家最熟悉的dust2。spirt依靠队内天才步枪手的发挥一度握有7个赛点， 顽强的faze硬生生从5:12追到了11:12，但最终还是输掉了最后一局。 真的刺激，我已经很久没看过这么让人窒息的决赛了，电子竞技的观赏性绝对超过了绝大多数的体育项目。 这次比赛最闪耀的mvp是一个17岁的俄罗斯少年donk，今年是他征战职业赛场的第一年，但就打出了全球top1的水平，赛场表现炸裂，他的六边形数据全 部"爆表"。 来，把周末值得说的事情捋一捋。 1、10年期国债活跃券收益率跌破1.8%关口，报1.78%，继续创历史新低。30年国债的收益率也随后跌破2%关口，报1.9999%。已经有几家券商研报判断 明年的逆回购利率会下跌40-50bp，至于房贷的利率降幅则要比这个更大。做出这些判断是有前提的，即中国经济确实需要进一步的宽松刺激，以及房价 依然还没有达到 ...