文丨卢晓旸 编辑丨吴海珊 随着2025年步入尾声，华尔街的目光不仅停留在新年圣诞假期，更聚焦于那个全球金融市场在年底尤为期待的"圣诞老人行情"（Santa Claus Rally）。与 此同时，2026年的宏观大幕正徐徐拉开，如何在美联储的政策钢丝上寻找确定性，预计将是投资者在新一年必须面对的挑战。 历史的回响与2025年年底的特殊时刻 所谓"圣诞老人行情"， 是指金融界的一种现象：它特指每年的最后五个交易日加上新年的前两个交易日，股市经常会出现的普遍上涨。虽然原因尚未完 全明朗，或综合源自投资者的乐观心理、税务调整、机构资金流入或假期氛围，但历史模式清晰可见。自1950年以来，这一现象一直呈现出令人惊讶的统 计学显著性。 历史数据显示，在过去的75年间，标普500指数（S&P 500）在这个特定的七天窗口期内，平均回报率为1.3%，且正收益的概率接近80%。这一表现远高 于其他任何随机选取的七天交易日，仿佛是市场给予坚持到最后时刻的投资者的一个"年终奖"。 | 过往标普500指数的 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | "圣诞老人行情" | | | | | 平均回报率 正收 ...

顾客在浙江省湖州市德清县乾元镇一家金店挑选黄金首饰。 新华社发 □新华社记者 任军 陈云富 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 受国际市场带动，以人民币计价的黄金价格续创新高。24日，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格盘中一度涨至每 克1017元，金饰报价在23日突破每克1400元关口后继续上扬，24日周大福等金店的足金饰品报价达每克1410 元。 值得注意的是，金价大涨带动不少资金关注黄金市场的替代投资品，叠加工业需求持续增加，白银、铂金、 钯金等贵金属价格纷纷"后来居上"，近期涨势远超黄金。 数据显示，今年四季度以来，国际银价一路上行，涨幅近50%，12月23日首次突破每盎司70美元的历史关 口，24日继续冲高至每盎司72美元上方，而国际铂金、钯金最近一个月的涨幅也都超过30%。 从年内涨幅来看，国际现货白银、铂金价格上涨均超过140%，钯金上涨超100%，国际现货黄金价格年内上 涨超70%。 "贵金属市场的强势表现超出不少机构预期。黄金价格今年40多次创历史新高，已超去年全年。白银价格持续 刷新纪录，铂金、钯金从下半年也开始补涨。"山东能源集团期现交易经理刘日成说。 贵金属 ...

Core Insights - The price of gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4500 per ounce for the first time, driven by international market trends and increasing industrial demand for precious metals [2] - Silver, platinum, and palladium have seen even greater price increases recently, with silver prices rising nearly 50% in Q4 and surpassing $70 per ounce [2][4] - The strong performance of precious metals has exceeded many institutions' expectations, with gold prices hitting record highs over 40 times this year alone [2] Group 1: Factors Driving Precious Metal Prices - The significant rise in gold and other precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including concerns over the creditworthiness of the US dollar and market sentiment, rather than just traditional safe-haven and anti-inflation motives [2][3] - The expansion of US debt has made gold and other precious metals appear as safer assets, contributing to their rising prices [3] Group 2: Industrial Demand and Market Dynamics - The industrial demand for silver and platinum has been a key driver of their price increases, with silver being essential for the transition to a green economy, particularly in solar and electric vehicle sectors [4] - Platinum's future is also promising due to its use in catalysts, with new opportunities arising from the hydrogen energy sector [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The sustainability of the current bullish trend in precious metals will depend on the continued resonance between market demand and investor sentiment [4] - Analysts caution that the volatility of precious metal prices may lead to rapid profit-taking by investors, potentially resulting in price corrections [4]

（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...

12月22日，全球金融市场呈现显著强势格局，国内A股与国际黄金市场同步走高。A股三大指数集体飘 红，成交额放量突破1.8万亿元，海南板块掀涨停潮尽显赚钱效应；伦敦现货黄金价格再度刷新历史纪 录，年内涨幅达67%，宏观面利好与避险需求共同驱动市场走强。 A股三大指数集体走强 对于近期黄金价格的上涨，业内分析师普遍认为主要受宏观面利好因素驱动。卓创资讯贵金属分析师黄 加奇指出，核心驱动因素包括以下几个方面：一是美国11月非农就业报告显示就业增量放缓、失业率升 至近四年新高，且通胀控制超预期良好，市场对2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽派的预期升温；二是美联储 下任主席竞选进入白热化，候选人沃勒和哈塞特均大概率倾向降息，若哈塞特当选还可能引发市场对美 联储独立性的担忧，进一步利多黄金；三是铂金、白银因伦敦现货市场交割货源紧张面临挤仓，推动相 关资产价格上涨，降低了持有黄金的相对机会成本；四是日本央行加息推动日元资产走强，压制美元指 数，间接对黄金价格形成支撑。 上海钢联稀贵金属事业部贵金属分析师黄廷补充道，当前全球经济不确定性加剧，金价持续上涨映射出 全球经济增长乏力、债务风险高企及市场对经济周期下行的悲观情绪。同时，黄 ...

易方达黄金ETF早盘延续强势，盘中涨幅达0.85%，成交活跃，显示市场避险需求持续升温；近6月累计 上涨27.31%，年内回报高达60.54%，在商品ETF中表现领先；该ETF近10个交易日获资金净流入1.8亿 元，最新规模增长355.6亿元，年内净流入额高达127.54亿元，资金中长期配置意愿坚定，流动性位居同 类前列；该基金紧密跟踪上海黄金交易所Au99.99现货实盘合约，直接挂钩高纯度实物黄金价格，无个 股风险，纯正反映国内现货市场走势，受益于全球央行持续购金、美联储降息预期升温及地缘风险溢价 抬升，黄金作为终极避险资产与抗通胀工具的长期逻辑稳固，配置价值凸显。 早盘，A股贵金属板块表现强势，黄金、白银相关个股涨幅靠前。截至上午交易时段，贵金属板块指数 上涨2.6%，其中黄金子板块表现尤为突出。国际市场方面，伦敦现货黄金价格在亚洲交易时段延续涨 势，一度触及每盎司4320美元，创下近三个月新高；白银价格同步走强。板块的亮眼表现主要受到多重 宏观因素支撑：市场对美联储将于2026年上半年开启降息周期的预期持续发酵，美元指数延续弱势格 局，为以美元计价的黄金提供了直接上行动力。地缘政治方面，红海航运通道紧张 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of personal pension contributions, highlighting the deadline for contributions and the potential tax savings associated with them [2][8]. Group 1: Personal Pension Contribution Guidelines - Individuals must complete their personal pension contributions by December 31, 2025, to qualify for tax deductions, with a maximum potential tax saving of 5,400 yuan [2]. - The contribution process involves three steps: making the contribution, declaring tax deductions, and completing the final settlement [2]. Group 2: Incentives for Contributions - There are various rewards for making contributions, including a maximum reward of 568 yuan for contributions of 10,000 yuan or more, and 88 yuan for contributions of 500 yuan [3]. - Additional rewards are available for referring friends to participate in the program, with potential earnings of up to 2,000 yuan for existing customers [3]. Group 3: Investment Options for Pension Funds - The article discusses different types of pension fund investments, including aggressive, balanced, and conservative options, each with varying risk levels [6][7]. - Specific funds mentioned include the "Jianxin Youxiang Jinqi Five-Year FOF" and "Xingquan Antai Active Pension Five-Year Holding FOF," which aim to balance returns and volatility [6][7].

12月22日早间，伦敦现货黄金价格强势拉涨，再度创下历史新高。 2025年初，伦敦现货黄金价格不足2600美元/盎司。但截至发稿，伦敦现货黄金价格已突破4400美元/盎 司，最高报4419.82美元/盎司，年内涨幅达到67%。 "在10月下旬创历史新高后，国际金价一度显著下挫。12月以来，黄金价格呈现震荡上涨走势，截至最 新交易日，国际金价较月初累计上涨约4%。"卓创资讯贵金属分析师黄加奇表示，近期黄金上涨主要受 到宏观面利好影响。其一，美国劳动统计局公布11月非农就业报告，虽非农就业人口增量略高于预期， 但相对前值明显放缓，加之11月失业率达到近四年新高以及通胀控制超预期良好，市场对2026年货币政 策偏鸽走向加注；其二，美联储下任主席竞选进入白热化阶段，候选人基本锁定在沃勒和哈塞特之间， 其中哈塞特与特朗普联系紧密，如当选或加大市场对于美联储独立性的担忧，进而成为黄金的核心利多 因素，沃勒则更趋向于"稳健鸽派"，但无论是谁当选，后续同等市场情况利率路径偏向降息的概率均将 上升；其三，铂金、白银等相关资产因为伦敦现货市场交割货源紧张而面临挤仓难题，强劲基本面推动 铂金、白银宽幅上涨，持有黄金相对机会成本减小 ...

法国兴业银行发布最新投资策略报告显示，截至2026年，黄金将持续在与美国债券、美元的资产表现比拼 中占据上风。该行不仅维持黄金在多资产组合中的最大配置权重，更向建议投资者把握回调窗口逢低买 入，锁定这一贵金属的长期投资价值。 该行已将美国通胀挂钩债券的风险敞口完全清零，同时将公司债券的持仓比例大幅削减50%，最终降至5% 的低位。而黄金在其多资产投资组合中的配置比例始终稳定在10%，成为唯一保持高位配置的资产类别。 该行预计到2025年底，国际现货黄金价格将攀升至每盎司5000美元的高位。从资金流向来看，散户投资者 的资产分散化需求正在持续释放，大量资金通过实物黄金以及黄金ETF等渠道涌入黄金市场。 黄金的投资价值不仅体现在散户资金的追捧，更得到全球央行的认可。当前，各国央行出于外汇储备多元 化的战略考量，正持续降低美元资产的占比，而黄金作为超主权货币的属性，成为央行资产配置的优选标 的。 此外，黄金在应对各类潜在风险时的作用不可替代，尤其是在美联储高层人事变动后，货币政策转向鸽派 的概率显著上升，这种政策预期下，黄金作为抗通胀、对冲货币贬值风险的资产，吸引力将持续增强。 法兴银行判断，未来一段时间内，美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the context of a shifting global economic landscape and increasing market volatility, investors are increasingly focusing on the stability and risk resistance of their asset portfolios. Gold, as a time-tested hard currency, plays a crucial role as a "ballast" in asset allocation, and the emergence of gold ETFs allows ordinary investors to conveniently capture the long-term value of gold [1]. Group 1: Economic Context and Federal Reserve Actions - On December 11, 2025, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%–3.75%, marking the third rate cut of the year. Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield declined, the dollar index weakened, and gold prices shifted from a decline to an increase, maintaining high volatility [1]. - The FOMC's voting results showed 9 votes in favor and 3 against, indicating a division in the committee regarding inflation pressures and economic slowdown assessments. The committee also announced a monthly purchase plan of $40 billion in short-term Treasury bonds starting December 12 to maintain ample reserves [4]. Group 2: Gold's Unique Attributes - Gold is recognized for its strong safe-haven properties, providing stability during geopolitical conflicts, global economic crises, and unexpected market events. Unlike traditional financial assets, gold's intrinsic value is less affected by a single economy or financial system, making it a reliable asset during times of uncertainty [9]. - Gold serves as an effective hedge against inflation, as its value is closely tied to physical commodities. In environments of monetary expansion and rising inflation, gold can maintain its value, helping investors preserve purchasing power [9]. - The low correlation of gold with traditional assets enhances its appeal for risk diversification. Gold's pricing logic is distinct from that of stocks and bonds, allowing it to act independently and even provide a counterbalance during traditional asset downturns [10]. Group 3: Gold ETFs as an Investment Tool - Gold ETFs address the challenges of traditional physical gold investment, such as storage issues, high transaction barriers, and limited liquidity, making them an optimal tool for ordinary investors to engage in gold investment [12]. - Gold ETFs facilitate convenient and low-cost investment in gold, allowing investors to trade gold as easily as stocks without the burdens of physical gold ownership, such as storage and transportation costs [12]. - The high liquidity of gold ETFs supports dynamic portfolio adjustments, enabling investors to buy or sell based on market conditions without facing liquidity constraints [13]. - Gold ETFs are designed to closely track gold prices, ensuring that investors can capture long-term appreciation without the risks associated with gold-related stocks or funds [13]. Group 4: Conclusion on Gold's Role in Asset Allocation - In the current complex market environment, the focus of asset allocation has shifted from "pursuing high returns" to "achieving stable appreciation." Gold, with its safe-haven, anti-inflation, and low-correlation attributes, serves as a "ballast" for navigating economic cycles, while gold ETFs provide accessible, low-cost, and highly liquid investment options for ordinary investors [15][16].