降息的靴子终于落地。九月十八日凌晨，美联储正式宣布降息25个基点，还释放了信号——今年内可能再降一到两次。 时隔一年，美国又拉开了降息周期的序幕，这意味着超过千亿美元的资本要往全球市场流了。这事儿听着像个确定的好消息，但大家先别着急下结论，这次 降息远没表面看起来那么简单。 首先得说，这次降息的幅度完全符合市场预期。可能有人会问，就降25个基点，是不是太谨慎了？但实际上，这个幅度刚好合适。 要是美联储敢激进降息，比如一下降50个基点，市场反而会多想——是不是美国经济出了大问题，甚至要衰退了？一旦这么想，恐慌情绪很容易起来。 美股要是大幅波动，全球那些容易受影响的资产（比如股票、基金）都躲不开，咱们A股市场也得跟着承压。所以说，25个基点是理性又克制的选择：既告 诉市场"接下来会放宽松"，又避免大家反应过度。 更值得关注的是，现在市场预期十月再降息的概率已经飙到了97.4%，宽松的趋势已经没什么可怀疑的了。 但真正要警惕的是美联储的"组合策略"——一边降息放钱到市场里，一边还维持着缩表的节奏不变。所谓缩表，就是美联储卖出手里的债券，把市场上的钱 收回来。 一边放水、一边抽水，这看似矛盾的操作背后，其实是美联储在 ...

北京时间18日凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。这是美联储 2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后继续降息。看似"没有意外"、"符合市场预期"的降息背后，充斥的是混乱和各方博弈。 由于承受的政治压力显著增大，美联储本次降息的理由、幅度，未来会否继续降息以及美联储独立性等受到广泛关注。这是美联储的专业理性操作吗？此次 降息将对美国与全球经济走势产生哪些影响？ "抗通胀"VS."保就业" 美联储陷入两难境地？ 在市场看来，美国就业市场的疲软表现成为美联储本次降息的首要考量。中国世贸组织研究会常务理事、全球化智库高级研究员何伟文分析认为： 考虑到美国不断上涨的物价，现在并不是美联储降息的好时机，但考虑到就业形势加剧恶化的现实，美联储只能"两害相权取其轻"，这也意味着美联储的政 策重心从"抑制通胀"转向"提振就业"。 问题的关键在于美国政府的关税政策导致了就业市场的低迷，而非美联储的政策。过度的货币宽松非但无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使美国经济 陷入"轻度滞胀"的状态。 英国广播公司网站报道截图 "鸽派行动" ...

Core Points - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, marking its first rate cut since the end of 2024 [1][4] - The decision reflects a cautious approach amid a weakening job market and political pressures, emphasizing the Fed's commitment to maintaining its independence [5][11] Background of Rate Cut - The rate cut comes in the context of a softening job market, with rising unemployment and slowing hiring being significant concerns for the Fed [5] - In contrast to the previous year's aggressive 50 basis point cut, this adjustment is seen as a small step aimed at risk management rather than a decisive shift in policy [5][17] Economic Projections and Dot Plot - The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicates that two more 25 basis point cuts are expected by the end of the year, potentially lowering rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% by the end of 2025 [7] - The dot plot suggests a gradual decline in long-term interest rate expectations, with projections for 2026 and 2027 being slightly lower than previous estimates, yet still above the neutral rate and inflation target [7][8] Internal Disagreements - There is a notable division among Fed members, with some advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points, while the majority favored a more gradual approach [8][10] - Powell acknowledged these differing opinions but emphasized the importance of reaching a consensus through diverse viewpoints [8] Powell's Press Conference Highlights - Powell stated that the 25 basis point cut was a suitable choice for risk management, rejecting the idea of a larger cut due to lack of broad support [10] - He clarified that the rate cut was primarily in response to job market weaknesses rather than a signal that inflation concerns have been resolved [10][15] - Powell defended the Fed's independence in the face of political pressure, asserting that decisions are based on data rather than political influence [11][12] Overall Implications - The rate cut is seen as a balancing act between addressing employment pressures and maintaining the Fed's independence amid political scrutiny [15][17] - The cautious approach indicates that while the Fed is willing to ease monetary policy, it remains vigilant about inflation risks and external pressures [15][17]

当地时间9月17日下午，北京时间今天（9月18日）凌晨，美国联邦储备委员会货币政策会议纪要显示， 美联储决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%-4.25%之间。这是美联储自2024年12月以 来的首次降息，预计年内还将降息两次。联邦公开市场委员会以11比1的投票结果通过降息25个基点的 决定。刚刚就职的美联储理事、目前仍担任白宫经济顾问委员会主席的斯蒂芬·米兰是唯一持不同意见 者，他主张降息50个基点。在今年7月货币政策会议上不同意维持利率不变的两位理事米歇尔·鲍曼和克 里斯托弗·沃勒对本次会议批准的降息幅度表示满意。 美联储主席鲍威尔当天在回答记者提问时，再次强调了美联储的独立性。美国总统特朗普自今年1月上 任以来持续施压美联储降息，并提名白宫经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰出任美联储理事。鲍威尔还 证实，美联储正在推行10%的减员计划，涵盖理事会及所有储备银行——完成后美联储雇员规模将基本 回归十年前水平。 在备受市场瞩目的9月议息会议上，美联储的最新决策声明透露出一个明确信号：对就业放缓的担忧明 显上升。 国金证券首席经济学家宋雪涛向《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称"每经记者"）表示，9月的 ...

看美联储,到《全 金十数据 | 2025-09-17制图 美联储九月点阵图预测 2025年还能降息几次? 9月点阵图预计将从6月的相对集中转向明显分化,反映出FOM 利率路径的意见分歧加剧。部分官员倾向于将利率下调至3.25% 放缓的风险;另一部分则维持在4.0%附近,主张继续观望;还 场,预测高于4%,强调抗通胀尚未结束。新任理事斯蒂芬 · 米 Miran) 加入后可能支持更低利率,进一步增加委员会结构的7 已 库 戴 荆 阳 安 下 威 蒂 林 = 尔 克 斯 3.75 降息3次 鮑 忌 群 米 EJ7 彩 3.5 降息3次 且1次50BP 3.25 6月 9) *以上 @ JIN10.COM 看美联储,到金十,立即下载金十数据APP>> 4.5 不降息 ITHE 格 勤 T R 洛 23 4.25 降息1次 ■ 6 降息2次 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The yellow feather chicken market is experiencing a surge, with profits of 3-4 yuan per chicken expected to offset losses from the first half of the year, driven by seasonal demand and previous capacity reductions [1] - The price of yellow chickens is anticipated to remain high in the short term, with potential for slight increases as the peak season approaches [1] Group 2: Gold Market - Gold has surpassed $3,650 per ounce, breaking the inflation-adjusted historical high from January 1980, marking a significant victory over 45 years of inflation [2] Group 3: Apple Product Launch - Apple unveiled the iPhone 17 series, including iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Pro, iPhone 17 Pro Max, and the thinnest iPhone ever, the iPhone Air, showcasing significant advancements in performance, imaging systems, and lightweight design [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Regulation - Six government departments in China have initiated a three-month campaign to address online irregularities in the automotive industry, aiming to enhance regulatory compliance [4] Group 5: Energy Sector Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration have announced a plan for new energy storage capacity to exceed 180 million kilowatts by 2027, with an expected direct investment of approximately 250 billion yuan [5] Group 6: Stock Market Movements - The PEEK materials sector saw a 5.61% increase, with several stocks, including Xinhan New Materials and Henghe Precision, hitting the 20% daily limit up [6] - Happiness Blue Sea's stock surged 20% near market close, marking its fifth consecutive day of gains, driven by the success of the film "Nanjing Photo Studio" [7] - Silver and Nonferrous Metals Company is under investigation by the China Securities Regulatory Commission for alleged information disclosure violations [8] - The AI sector experienced a collective surge, with stocks like Haiguang Information and Shenghong Technology hitting daily limit ups following Oracle's stock performance [9] - Shoukai Co. has achieved seven limit-up days in eight trading days, with a cumulative increase of 108.7% [10] Group 7: Fund Market Trends - A total of 106 new enhanced index funds have been launched this year, surpassing the total number and scale of new funds issued in 2023 and 2024 [11] - The largest new fund is the GF Growth Enterprise Index Enhanced Fund, with a total issuance of 2.393 billion units [11] - The development of quantitative technology has enabled funds to seek excess returns while tracking indices, appealing to investors seeking higher returns [12]

随着市场对美国经济路径的担忧升温，黄金价格持续上涨，并在本周二突破经通胀调整后的1980年峰 值，创下历史新高，三年牛市进入未知领域。 现货黄金本月迄今已上涨约5%，周二一度触及每盎司3674.27美元的历史新高。仅在2025年，金价就已 创下逾30次名义价格纪录。而最新一轮涨势突破了1980年1月21日的通胀调整后峰值，当时名义价格为 850美元。彼时的美国正面临货币崩溃、通胀飙升和经济衰退。 考虑几十年的消费者物价上涨，1980年的850美元相当于现在的约3590美元。需要注意的是，通胀调整 方法不同，部分估算会把1980年高点算得更低。无论如何，市场普遍认为黄金已稳稳突破1980年代水 平，再次凸显其作为抗通胀、对冲货币贬值"古老避险工具"的地位。 通胀、去美元化与美国政策担忧构成多重推力 今年以来，在特朗普总统减税、扩大全球贸易争端，以及对美联储独立性的威胁之下，黄金已上涨近 40%。美元和美国长期国债年初的抛售，凸显了市场对美国资产需求减弱的担忧，并引发美国债务能否 继续作为动荡时期避险资产的质疑。 前世行首席经济学家卡门·莱因哈特指出："黄金反映的不仅是人们重新认识到通胀依然是问题，还有对 世界的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market, particularly gold, has been experiencing significant price increases, reaching historical highs due to various factors including concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and rising expectations for interest rate cuts [1][3]. Price Trends - International gold prices have surged since late August, with London spot gold reaching a peak of $3674.48 per ounce and COMEX gold futures hitting $3715.2 per ounce on September 9 [1]. - As of September 11, 2023, the prices were reported at $3630.075 per ounce for London gold and $3666 per ounce for COMEX gold [1]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai gold futures also saw a significant rise, with the main contract peaking at 840.82 yuan per gram on September 10, marking a 5.82% increase for the month [2]. Market Participation - The total capital in Shanghai gold futures reached 1037.29 billion yuan by September 11, significantly higher than other commodity futures, indicating increased market participation [2]. - The increase in capital is attributed to rising prices and an increase in open interest, reflecting a growing interest in gold as an investment [2]. Fundamental Support - The year-to-date performance of gold has been strong, with London spot gold prices rising over $1000 per ounce, a gain of more than 38% [2][3]. - Factors driving this performance include heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets due to international trade tensions and concerns over U.S. inflation [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the demand for gold's monetary and anti-inflation properties will continue to drive its price in the long term [4]. - The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold is expected to provide additional support for gold prices [5]. - The anticipated continuation of the "de-dollarization" process globally is also expected to sustain gold price support [4]. Investment Recommendations - For gold futures investors, it is crucial to monitor U.S. macroeconomic indicators and market sentiment regarding risk [5]. - For investors in gold bars, the long-term investment cycle offers unique advantages in terms of inflation hedging and asset optimization [5]. - New investors in gold are advised to consider the current market volatility and the potential risks associated with short-term trading strategies [5].

Core Insights - The natural diamond market demonstrates strong resilience amid global economic adjustments, with significant growth in imports and value reassessment due to supply constraints and recovering demand [1][6] - The scarcity of natural diamonds is a key factor supporting their value, with global production declining to the lowest level since 1995, highlighting the increasing rarity of these assets [1][6] - The long-term price stability of natural diamonds is evident, with a historical average annual growth rate of approximately 3% over the past 35 years, and future projections indicate a continued increase in value [1][6] Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2025, China's imports of finished diamonds surged by 93.8% year-on-year, reflecting a robust demand recovery [1] - The consumer market is diversifying, with younger consumers seeking personalized designs and high-net-worth individuals showing strong demand for investment-grade diamonds [3][6] - The investment appeal of natural diamonds is becoming more pronounced, especially during economic fluctuations, positioning them as a viable asset class [3][6] Competitive Landscape - The introduction of a grading system by GIA for lab-grown diamonds marks a significant shift, reinforcing the unique value of natural diamonds and promoting rational market development [6] - The production of lab-grown diamonds has rapidly expanded, leading to a significant price decline, which contrasts with the stable value of natural diamonds [4][6] - The long-term growth potential for natural diamonds remains high, driven by supply constraints and diversified demand, solidifying their status in the luxury goods market [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin holds a unique position in the cryptocurrency world, having evolved from an anonymous developer's experiment to the most recognized digital asset globally, unlike many altcoins that have failed to replicate its success [1][4] Group 1: Bitcoin's Unique Attributes - The success of Bitcoin lies in its non-replicability, as highlighted by the author of "The Bitcoin Standard," emphasizing that while its code is open-source, the lack of genuine community demand hampers the survival of imitation coins [3][6] - Bitcoin's decentralized community contrasts sharply with the corporate structures of most altcoins, which often prioritize quick profits over long-term development, leading to significant information asymmetry and moral hazard [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics of Altcoins - Despite the risks, many investors are drawn to altcoins due to the mythos surrounding Bitcoin, often overlooking that Bitcoin's success is rooted in its underlying ideology rather than just technology [4][6] - Historical data shows a grim survival rate for altcoins, with many from the top 20 market cap lists in 2013, 2017, and 2021 experiencing significant devaluation by 2022, indicating their inability to match Bitcoin's fairness, stability, and longevity [4][6] Group 3: Evolution of Altcoin Strategies - Initially, many altcoins attempted to compete by claiming to be "faster" or "cheaper" alternatives to Bitcoin, but these strategies have lost traction, leading to a shift towards proof-of-stake (PoS) and other mechanisms that emphasize unique functionalities [6][7] - Bitcoin's dominance, holding 97% of the market value through its proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism, has created a significant barrier for other cryptocurrencies to cultivate a similar following [6][7] Group 4: Cultural and Ideological Significance - Bitcoin's mission as a peer-to-peer electronic cash system and a store of value is supported by its fixed supply of 21 million and 10-minute block time, reinforcing its core principles of decentralization and anti-inflation [6][7] - The historical context of Bitcoin's creation during a financial crisis imbues it with a rebellious spirit against the old order, symbolizing a belief in a currency independent of state control, which has been perpetuated by its decentralized community [6][7] Group 5: Power Dynamics in the Cryptocurrency Space - The power dynamics within the cryptocurrency sector are complex, with many project failures attributed to the structure of founding teams and economic incentives, highlighting the risks of information asymmetry [7] - Bitcoin's non-replicability is ultimately rooted in the collective belief and ideology of its community, making it a movement rather than just a technological innovation, which is difficult for later entrants to replicate [7]