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金融期权 2025/07/10 金融期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 金融期权策略早报概要： （1）股市短评：上证综指数、大盘蓝筹股、中小盘股和创业板股表现为高位震荡偏多上行的市场行情。 （2）金融期权波动性分析：金融期权隐含波动率均值较低水平水平波动。 （3）金融期权策略与建议：对于ETF期权来说，适合构建备兑策略和偏中性的双卖策略，垂直价差组合策略；对于 股指期权来说，适合构建偏中性的双卖策略和期权合成期货多头或空头与期货空头或多头做套利策略。 表1：金融市场重要指数概况 | 重要指数 | 指数代码 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交额 | 额变化 | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ...

金属期权 2025-07-10 金属期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属震荡回落，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系区间盘整震荡逐 渐，适合构建卖方期权中性组合策略；（3）贵金属黄金高位盘整弱势回落，构建现货避险策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） ...

| 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权 2025-07-10 农产品期权策略早报 农产品期权策略早报概要：油料油脂类农产品有所转弱，油脂类，农副产品维持震荡行情，软商品白糖延续偏弱， 棉花温和上涨，谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （ ...

近日陆股通最新持股数据公布后，北向资金2025年二季度的持仓动向浮出水面。 据上证报记者统计，剔除不可比数据后，二季度末北向资金共持有2655家A股公司，合计持股 数为1228.12亿股，较一季度末环比增加3.18%；持股市值为2.28万亿元，环比增长2.23%。 从持股占比情况来看，二季度末，北向资金持股数占流通A股的1.98%，较一季度末环比提升 0.05个百分点。不过，持股市值占流通A股市值的比例为3.12%，与一季度末相比微降0.02个百 分点。 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到 先得！ 建筑装饰、商贸零售加仓幅度均超20% 从行业分布看，2025年二季度，北向资金的加仓动作呈现出明显的结构性特征——20个行业获 得北向资金增持，占比超六成。其中，建筑装饰与商贸零售两个行业的加仓幅度尤为突出，均 超过20%。 增持前十大行业 具体来看，建筑装饰行业在二季度末的北向资金持仓规模显著增加：持股数量达56.65亿股，较 一季度末增加11.65亿股，增幅高达25.88%，对应持股市攀升至294.5亿元，商贸零售行业同样 获北向资金重点加仓，最新持股数量 ...

Group 1: Northbound Capital Analysis - In Q2 2025, Northbound capital actively increased positions in both traditional economy sectors and new tracks, with significant additions in non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, non-bank financials, and construction decoration [2][22] - Major reductions were observed in food and beverage, home appliances, and machinery sectors, indicating a shift from core assets to traditional economy and from old tracks to new tracks [2][22] - The absolute holding amounts showed significant decreases for companies like BOE A (-38.39%), Luxshare Precision (-38.29%), and Wuliangye (-30.22%) [23][24] Group 2: Dollar Outlook - The report suggests that the downtrend of the dollar is expected to continue at least until mid-2025, with recent upticks being merely a "rebound" rather than a "reversal" [3][29] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and a loss of attractiveness as a global reserve currency [3][27] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in Q3 2025, but maintains that the overall downtrend remains dominant [29] Group 3: Credit Bond ETF Strategy - Since May, the credit bond market has exhibited independent trends, driven by rapid growth in credit bond ETF scales and expectations for future space [4][30] - The trading activity of component bonds has significantly increased, with higher turnover rates compared to non-component bonds [30][31] - The report indicates that the valuation of component bonds may further compress, with potential trading opportunities in non-component bonds due to liquidity premiums [32] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Daikin Heavy Industries is positioned as the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region capable of delivering offshore products to the European market, with a strong order backlog [11][35] - The company has transitioned to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service offerings and increasing order value [11][35] - Revenue projections for Daikin Heavy Industries are set at 6.51 billion, 8.40 billion, and 9.74 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates adjusted to 1.05 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively [11][36] Group 5: Chemical Industry Analysis - Xin'an Chemical is recognized as a leading player in the glyphosate and silicone markets, with expectations for improved market conditions in the silicone sector [12][20] - The company has a glyphosate production capacity of 80,000 tons and is expanding its product range under a "1+2+N" strategy [12][20] - Revenue forecasts for Xin'an Chemical are projected at 15.5 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to reach 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [12][20]

金十图示：2025年07月10日（周四）白银ETF持仓报告 2025-06-20 -12.72吨 2025-06-18 +87.64吨 -39.58吨 2025-06-17 +39.58吨 2025-06-16 -53.72吨 2025-06-13 0 250 50 100 200 150 增仓 减仓 -100 -50 注: ETF持仓数据于北京时间周二至周六凌晨5点30分左右更新,数据为上 一日的持仓情况。 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...

金十图示：2025年07月10日（周四）黄金ETF持仓报告 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 2025-06-18 +1.43吨 +4.01吨 2025-06-17 2025-06-16 +1.44吨 +2.58吨 2025-06-13 +3.72吨 2025-06-12 -2 0 6 8 2 -4 4 减仓 -6 增仓 注: ETF持仓数据于北京时间周二至周六凌晨5点30分左右更新,数据为上 一日的持仓情况。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the short - term driving force is weak, and the price follows the cost fluctuation. In July, there are few maintenance plans, and the Sanfangxiang PTA device is expected to be put into production, increasing the supply. The terminal demand is in the off - season, and the polyester factory's inventory pressure is accumulating, with a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market [5]. - For MEG, the supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders to hold goods is poor. The supply - demand weakening and the polyester off - season put pressure on the MEG disk. The price will be mainly in the low - range consolidation in the short term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant information provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures rose slightly yesterday. The spot market negotiation was average, mainly by traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The spot basis weakened rapidly and then stabilized. The expected supply increase and weak terminal demand are negative factors [5]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated narrowly. The spot basis was stable, and the external market was at a low level. The supply - demand structure is changing, and there is an inventory accumulation expectation [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: Focus on the downstream polyester load fluctuation [5]. - **MEG**: Focus on the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.20 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below it. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [6]. 3.5 Impact Factor Summary - **Likely Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran confirmed a cease - fire, and the terminal demand is weakening due to the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season [9]. 3.6 Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. There is still an inventory accumulation expectation at the raw material end. After the disk rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in PTA production capacity, output, import, export, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [10]. - **MEG**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows the changes in MEG's total operating rate, output, import, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. 3.8 Price and Profit Data - **Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed on July 9, 2025, compared with July 8, 2025 [13]. - **Profit**: The processing fees and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed [13].

股指期货持仓日度跟踪 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 股指期货： IF、IH、IC、IM | 品种 | | 主力合 约 | 总持仓点评 | 前二十席位重要变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深 | 300 | IF2509 | 总持仓明显下降 | 前二十席位以减仓为主 | | 上证 | 50 | IH2509 | 总持仓小幅下降 | 前二十席位有所分歧 | | 中证 | 500 | IC2507 | 总持仓明显下降 | 国君中信多空头均大幅减仓 | | 中证 | 1000 | IM2509 | 总持仓大幅下降 | 中信多空头各减仓近 8000 手 | 股指期货持仓日度变动简评 -5,214.0 -1,701.0 -6,557.0 -14,409.0 -10,708.0 -2,240.0 -12,047.0 -25,645.0 -30,000 -25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5, ...