金银在开年首日高开低走，交易员正在评估下周启动的商品基准指数权重调整可能带来的市场冲击。黄金、白银刚刚结束自1979 年以来表现最佳的年度涨势，但即将面临被动型基金的集中抛售压力。 周五（1月2日）交易时段，黄金一度上涨1.9%，但在美国交易时段回吐大部分涨幅，收盘仅上涨0.2%至每盎司4328.35美元。白银 早盘最高涨幅达4%，随后回落至1.3%，报每盎司72.61美元。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通12月12日发布的研报量化了抛售规模：白银将遭遇最沉重的抛售，卖盘规模约占其期货市场总未平 仓合约的9%，报告特别强调今年白银的抛售压力"比去年更为突出"。黄金的抛售规模预计约占其期货市场总未平仓合约的3%。 分析指出，尽管交易员预期美联储进一步降息和美元走弱将支撑贵金属今年继续上涨，但近期的指数再平衡可能对价格构成压 力。据悉，彭博商品指数的年度权重重置将导致逾60亿美元的黄金期货和超过50亿美元的白银期货在为期五天（1月8日至14日） 的展期窗口内被卖出。 TD Securities高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali警告，未来两周内Comex白银市场将有相当于未平仓合约总量13%的头寸被抛 售，"将 ...

Core Viewpoint - Precious metal stocks are experiencing a pre-market rise, driven by increasing gold and silver prices, with expectations for strong performance in 2026 due to factors like potential U.S. interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coeur Mining (CDE.US) rose nearly 4%, Pan American Silver (PAAS.US) increased over 2%, and Barrick Gold (B.US), Newmont Mining (NEM.US), and Harmony Gold (HMY.US) all gained over 1% [1] - Spot gold prices increased by over 1%, reaching a peak of $4,400, while spot silver surged by 3%, reclaiming the $73 mark [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The rise in precious metals is attributed to expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar, which may support prices in 2026 [1] - In 2025, precious metals experienced a significant upward trend, with gold prices hitting a series of historical highs due to central bank gold purchases, Federal Reserve easing policies, and a weaker dollar [1] - Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions led by the U.S. have also contributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1]

Group 1: Market Concerns - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 may lead to a concentrated sell-off of gold, causing technical adjustments[2] - Historical adjustments in 2024 and 2025 due to rising gold prices did not significantly impact the market[2] - The adjustment involves a relatively small fund size of $6.5 billion, which is limited compared to the average daily trading volume of over $400 billion in the gold market[2][14] Group 2: Index Rebalancing Details - The Bloomberg Commodity Index aims for diversity and balance, with annual adjustments based on trading volume and global market value[3] - The target weight for gold in 2026 is set at 14.9%, down from an actual weight of 20.88%, indicating a reduction of approximately 6 percentage points[9][14] - The rebalancing process will occur over five trading days, allowing for a smooth transition without significant market disruption[2][14] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Gold prices are expected to continue rising in January 2026, driven by potential interest rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to government shutdown risks[20] - Historical data shows that during previous rebalancing periods, gold prices remained relatively stable despite adjustments in weight[8][12]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a significant surge, with gold and silver reaching new highs, while platinum and palladium have also seen substantial increases. However, this rally is accompanied by risks, particularly due to high silver prices impacting solar demand and the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may trigger forced selling in the market [1][4][21]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals have seen a remarkable rise, with gold prices nearing a historical high of $4486 per ounce, marking over 50 record highs in the year [3][11]. - Silver prices have surged approximately 140% this year, while gold has increased nearly 70%, representing the highest annual gains in 46 years [9][11]. - Platinum and palladium have also shown impressive performance, with platinum reaching $2075 per ounce and a yearly increase of nearly 130%, the largest since 1990 [11][16]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The surge in precious metals is driven by a weaker dollar and expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite officials predicting only one [13]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly related to military actions near Venezuela, have added a risk premium to the market [13]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Morgan Stanley warns that the high prices of silver are eroding demand in the photovoltaic sector, with silver's cost share in solar components rising from below 5% to nearly 20% [19]. - The upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index on January 8, 2026, is expected to lead to significant technical selling, with projected sell-offs of approximately 9% of silver's futures open interest and 3% for gold [21][23][24]. - This anticipated selling pressure could counteract the traditional seasonal strength typically seen in the precious metals market at the beginning of the year [25].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a historic surge, driven by expectations of monetary easing and geopolitical risks, but a significant risk of forced selling looms due to the upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index in January 2026 [1][7][19]. Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals are on track for their strongest annual performance since 1979, with gold prices nearing a 70% increase and silver prices soaring nearly 140% year-to-date [8]. - Platinum and palladium have also seen remarkable gains, with platinum rising to over $2,075 per ounce, marking a nearly 130% annual increase, and palladium reaching approximately $1,802 per ounce, with an expected annual increase of over 95% [12]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The macroeconomic backdrop includes a weakening US dollar and widespread expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, despite officials predicting only one [10]. - Increased military activity near Venezuela has added geopolitical risk premiums to the market [10]. - Chinese trading activity has significantly contributed to the surge in platinum prices, with trading volumes on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange surpassing those of the New York Mercantile Exchange [11][13]. Group 3: Risks and Upcoming Events - JPMorgan warns of a potential technical sell-off during the January 2026 rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, as gold and silver have significantly outperformed the market over the past three years [7][19]. - Passive funds tracking the index, with over $60 billion in assets, may be forced to sell approximately 9% of the total open contracts in silver and about 3% in gold during the rebalancing period [20][21]. - The upcoming sell-off could counteract the traditional seasonal strength typically seen in precious metals at the beginning of the year, leading to potential market volatility [21].

格隆汇12月22日｜纽约可可期货从近两周低点反弹，因市场预期指数相关买盘即将涌入，且供应不确定 性持续存在。周一早前触及12月9日以来最低点后，期货价格一度上涨2.7%。随着可可被纳入彭博商品 指数，花旗集团预计指数再平衡将在1月初吸引高达20亿美元的买盘。Peak Trading Research估算，此举 可能引发约31,190份合约的买盘。Peak Trading Research创始人Dave Whitcomb指出，可可期货是农业市 场中最超卖的品种之一，因此极易出现反弹。 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics - The global monetary and fiscal easing expectations are providing strong support for precious metal prices, although some precious metals face potential short-term negative disturbances [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut in both 2026 and 2027, and has recently conducted technical balance sheet expansion to maintain liquidity [1] - Uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path may affect market expectations for liquidity expansion, potentially disturbing precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Global debt and fiscal deficit expansion, along with ongoing central bank gold purchases, are long-term bullish factors for the precious metals market [2] - Gold and silver prices have risen significantly over the past three years, leading to potential technical selling pressure due to their overweight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index [2] - Despite short-term negative factors, the long-term core trading logic for gold and silver remains unchanged, driven by global "reflation" trades, monetary policy uncertainty, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Insights - The global platinum market is expected to face a tight supply-demand situation by 2026, with slow growth in production due to high mining costs and unstable power supply [3] - Platinum demand is supported by stricter automotive emissions standards, with automotive catalysts accounting for 42.5% of global platinum demand [3] - The palladium market is experiencing pressure from the increasing market share of electric vehicles, leading to a less optimistic long-term demand outlook for palladium [3]

受此消息影响，苹果股价下跌1.1%，市值为2.967万亿美元。6月30日，苹果市值首次收于3万亿美元关 口之上。Alphabet和亚马逊的跌幅均超过2%，微软和特斯拉均下跌超过1%。 上周五晚些时候，纳斯达克证券交易所表示，将对该指数进行"特别再平衡"，"通过重新分配权重来解 决指数过度集中的问题。"在此之后，华尔街最有价值的股票纷纷下跌。 此次调整将在截至7月3日的流通股份的基础上进行， 7月14日将公布变化情况，7月24日开盘前生效。 纳斯达克100指数包括在纳斯达克交易所交易的100家最大公司。该指数的变化将导致跟踪该指数的投资 基金调整其投资组合，并出售在该指数中权重被降低的公司的股票。 华尔街最有价值的公司是今年美国股市复苏的最大赢家，这些公司在纳斯达克100指数、纳斯达克综合 指数和标准普尔500指数中的权重进一步上升。 据报道，当地时间周一，苹果、微软等头部美国企业股价下跌。此前纳斯达克证券交易所表示，将重新 平衡其纳斯达克100指数，以解决该指数"过度集中"的问题。 今年迄今为止，标准普尔500指数上升了15%，而英伟达公司股价飙升了189%，特斯拉上涨了一倍多。 今年，微软、亚马逊和苹果的股 ...

Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a rebound on Friday after a turbulent week and a declining month, with major indices closing higher despite rising geopolitical risks [1][3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.59% to close at 5954.50 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.39% to 43840.91 points, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.63% to 18847.28 points [1][2] February Performance - Despite the rebound on Friday, the overall performance in February was disappointing, with the Nasdaq index down nearly 4%, including a 3.5% drop this week, marking its worst month since April 2024 [3] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.4% in February, while the Dow Jones index showed a monthly decline of 1.6% [3] Market Volatility and Investor Sentiment - The market remains highly volatile, influenced by geopolitical and economic factors, with any news regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation potentially exacerbating uncertainty [4] - Investor sentiment is heavily news-driven, and recent comments from Trump regarding tariffs and economic warning signals have unsettled investors [3][5] Fund Flows and Institutional Behavior - In January, US stock mutual funds and ETFs saw an outflow of nearly $11 billion, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as more funds were withdrawn than invested [5] - Institutional investors are reassessing market risks, with a notable decline in risk appetite reflected in the S&P Global Investment Manager Index [5] Foreign Investment in China - As capital market reforms progress, the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global investors is expected to increase, with foreign institutions intensifying their research on Chinese listed companies [7] - Major foreign firms like Goldman Sachs and Schroders have been actively involved in researching sectors such as AI, healthcare, and consumer goods in the A-share market [7]