格隆汇1月30日｜美国30年期国债收益率上涨6个基点，收益率曲线更加陡峭，市场正准备迎接美国总统 唐纳德·特朗普提名凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席。美国30年期国债收益率触及4.91%，为1月21日以 来最高水平；2年期收益率变化不大。 ...

Core Insights - President Trump has indicated he has a preferred candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chair and plans to announce this choice soon, potentially during the week of January 26 [2] - Wolfe Research highlights a significant time window for the announcement, particularly during the FOMC meeting, suggesting a strategic move to shift market focus away from the Fed's lack of rate cuts [2] - The announcement is expected to fill the vacancy left by the Fed Governor's seat, which will be vacated on January 31, with a nomination likely before the March FOMC meeting [2] Candidate Analysis - Market reactions suggest that Rick Rieder from BlackRock and Kevin Hassett are viewed as relatively dovish candidates, while Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh are seen as more hawkish [3] - Hassett's potential appointment could steepen the yield curve, whereas Warsh's nomination might flatten it [3] - Wolfe Research indicates that Hassett has a higher probability of being nominated than the current market prediction of 6%, although there is no perfect candidate that meets all of Trump's criteria [3]

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO) remains optimistic about Japanese 30-year government bonds despite recent market sell-offs, indicating that the current yield levels present attractive investment opportunities [2]. Group 1: Investment Sentiment - PIMCO's positive outlook aligns with a growing number of investors who find the Japanese bond market appealing [2]. - The recent sell-off resulted in a market value loss of approximately $41 billion, driven by concerns over the fiscal expansion of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's government [2]. - PIMCO emphasizes that higher yields could lead to capital gains during interest rate declines and help hedge against economic shocks, stock market volatility, or significant yen appreciation [2]. Group 2: Yield Curve and Policy Outlook - PIMCO prefers the long end of the yield curve, specifically the 30-year Japanese government bonds, citing steepness and limited issuance incentives from the Japanese Ministry of Finance [2]. - The firm anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually normalize its policy, potentially raising the policy rate by 25 to 50 basis points within the next year, targeting a range of 1% to 1.25% [3]. - The current 10-year Japanese government bond yield is approximately 2.235%, and PIMCO expects it to remain around this level [3]. Group 3: Global Context and Risks - The current currency hedging costs are favorable for global investors, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Japanese bonds compared to similar global assets [3]. - Potential risks that could push yields beyond the expected range include a weaker yen or unexpected acceleration in inflation, which may prompt quicker or larger policy rate hikes [3]. - The more expansionary fiscal stance of the Kishida government introduces additional uncertainty, although financial market pressures are expected to limit excessive policy expansion [3]. Group 4: Broader Market Insights - The short-term outlook for Chinese bonds remains positive, particularly for longer-term government bonds [4]. - Strong current account balances and returning capital inflows are expected to support the gradual appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar and other major currencies [4]. - Australia's long-term neutral cash rate is projected to be close to 3%, with policy rates stabilizing around this level after inflation stabilizes and economic growth returns to trend [4].

股权研究 宏观经济 2026年1月23日 +44 20 7868 4489 理查德·德·沙扎尔, CFA rdechazal@williamblair.com +1 312 364 8867 劳里·马卡马 经济学周报 lmukama@williamblair.com 请参阅第 14 页和第 15 页的重要披露。分析师认证在第 14 页上。 91022_ac04293e-5a9a-437c-99e4-808075da6f73.pdf 关于凯文有些 事 威廉 布莱尔 财长斯科特·贝森，正在负责寻找下一任美联储主席，本周表示 ，在达沃斯之后，总统将在下周宣布他对该职位的提名。直到 上周，这一选择被广泛认为将是凯文·哈塞特。然而，在总统的 评论之后，市场现在认为哈塞特的机会已经被打击，而投注者 则显著提高了凯文·沃什被任命为主席的机会。 在此 经济学周 刊 并且，在下周可能宣布的事情之前，我们讨论了这个角色 的主要候选人。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰在理事会的短期任职（始于9月16日， 以填补已离任的阿德里安娜·库格勒的空缺）将于1月31日结束 。因此，总统为下一任美联储主席的人选可能会从2月开始占 据米兰在委员会的席位 ...

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds are under pressure, maintaining a downward trend during trading hours, influenced by geopolitical tensions and market risk aversion [1][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The long end of the US Treasury yield curve steepened, with yields rising by up to 8 basis points compared to the previous trading day [1][4]. - The 2-year/10-year yield spread widened by 6 basis points, while the 5-year/30-year spread increased by 4.5 basis points [1][4]. Group 2: Yield Data - As of 3:05 PM Eastern Time, the yields were reported as follows: 2-year at 3.5947%, 5-year at 3.854%, 10-year at 4.2906%, and 30-year at 4.9179% [3][6]. - The yield spread between 5-year and 30-year bonds was 106.21 basis points, and the spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds was 69.37 basis points [3][6]. Group 3: Trading Activity - Strong demand for 5-year and 10-year Treasury bonds helped prevent a more significant sell-off, with notable purchases totaling approximately $12.5 million/DV01 [5]. - The S&P 500 index fell by about 2%, while gold prices rose nearly 2%, reflecting market reactions to heightened tensions between the US and Europe [5].

Group 1 - The current trading price of spot silver is around $90.68 per ounce, down 1.83% from the opening price of $92.38, with a high of $92.78 and a low of $90.21, indicating a bearish short-term trend [1] - Strong economic data released on Thursday, including a decrease in initial jobless claims and a 0.4% increase in import prices, led to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.6 basis points to 4.156% [2] - The market's optimistic outlook on the economy is reflected in the positive spread of 59.6 basis points between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, suggesting a cooling of expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The recent price action in silver shows a critical resistance level between $93 and $94, with a potential for significant pullback if this level is not breached [2] - Key support for silver is identified in the $86 to $87 range, with further potential declines expected if this support fails, possibly leading to prices dropping below $80 [2] - The market is advised to monitor support levels at $78 and $74-$73 for potential stabilization before any upward movement [2]

Group 1 - Ed Devlin, a former executive at PIMCO and current head of a Toronto hedge fund, is increasing bets on a steepening yield curve, anticipating that if the Trump administration loses a tariff case, the U.S. will be forced to increase borrowing, thereby raising the supply of long-term U.S. Treasuries [1] - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on a challenge to President Trump's trade policies, which could impact the legal basis for tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [1] - If the court strikes down the tariff basis, the U.S. Treasury could face a significant shortfall, as last year's budget deficit narrowed to $1.67 trillion, largely due to increased tariff revenues of $264 billion [1] Group 2 - Devlin believes that alternative tax measures to fill the potential revenue gap will be politically difficult to implement, especially with midterm elections approaching and voters sensitive to inflation and living costs [1] - The market may be underestimating the scale of U.S. Treasury supply for a considerable part of this year, which could lead to an increase in long-term yields or at least a slower decline compared to short-term rates, thus steepening the yield curve [1] - The yield curve has already steepened significantly since Trump's first year in office, with the spread between two-year and ten-year Treasury yields widening to 64 basis points, up from approximately 30 basis points at the time of his inauguration [1]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds mostly rose on Wednesday despite busy corporate new debt issuance, driven by weaker-than-expected ADP private sector employment data, which supported bond strength [1][2]. Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - Long-term yields fell by nearly 5 basis points, while short-term yields remained unchanged, leading to a narrowing of the yield spreads between 2-year/10-year and 5-year/30-year bonds by approximately 4 basis points and 3 basis points, respectively [1][2]. - As of 3:30 PM Eastern Time, the yields were reported as follows: 2-year at 3.4653%, 5-year at 3.6924%, 10-year at 4.1377%, and 30-year at 4.8182% [3]. Group 2: Employment Data Impact - The ADP employment data for December showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in the private sector, which was below the expected increase of 50,000 jobs, contributing to the rise in Treasury futures [1][2]. Group 3: Corporate Debt Issuance - The total amount of new corporate debt issuance this week reached a non-pandemic high, with 11 issuers collectively raising $16.35 billion in new investment-grade bonds [1][2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call records focus on the U.S. Treasury market and interest rate outlook for 2026, with insights from various financial institutions including Barclays, HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Core Insights and Arguments U.S. Treasury Market Outlook 1. **Yield Curve Dynamics**: - Barclays predicts a steepening of the yield curve, with 2-year yields expected to drop to 3.1% and 30-year yields remaining around 4.7%, resulting in a 2s30s spread of 160 basis points [6][10]. - HSBC anticipates a bear steepening of the yield curve, projecting a 10-year yield of 4.30% by the end of 2026 [15][19]. - Morgan Stanley suggests that the Fed's rate cuts may be less than market expectations, with a forecast of only 50 basis points of cuts [25][26]. 2. **Federal Reserve Policy**: - The new leadership at the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially lowering rates below neutral levels [6][7]. - The Fed is projected to end quantitative tightening (QT) and begin purchasing T-bills to maintain adequate reserves, with an estimated purchase of $330 billion in T-bills in 2026 [10][31]. 3. **Fiscal Deficit and Inflation**: - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 6% of GDP, approximately $1.9 trillion, with inflation projected to stabilize around 2% [6][10][25]. - Concerns about inflation resurgence due to fiscal expansion and tariff impacts are highlighted, with core PCE inflation expected to remain above 2% [41][48]. Supply and Demand Dynamics 1. **Net Supply Projections**: - A significant reduction in net supply of U.S. Treasuries is anticipated, with a decrease of approximately $470 billion to $1.2 trillion in 2026 [6][58]. - Investment-grade corporate bonds are expected to see an increase in net supply, driven by mergers and acquisitions [58]. 2. **Market Demand**: - Bank demand for mid-term Treasuries is expected to rebound due to regulatory changes [9]. - Continuous inflows into bond funds are supporting demand, particularly for MBS, which are favored due to their attractive spreads [58][62]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Asset Recommendations**: - Barclays recommends going long on 2-year Treasuries to capitalize on anticipated rate cuts [10]. - HSBC suggests positioning in the belly of the curve (5-year Treasuries) for lower structural risk and positive carry [21]. - Deutsche Bank advises a cautious approach to long-dated Treasuries, predicting underperformance relative to swaps [39]. 2. **Strategic Themes**: - "Carry is king" is emphasized as a core investment strategy, focusing on high-yield bonds and leveraged loans due to their attractive coupon rates in a stable interest rate environment [41][47]. - The potential for a bear steepening of the yield curve is noted, with strategies to exploit this dynamic [21][47]. Other Important Insights - The reports highlight a complex economic landscape characterized by resilient growth, sticky inflation, and the dual risks of fiscal deterioration and inflation rebound [7][17]. - The impact of AI-driven capital expenditures and fiscal stimulus from legislation like the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is noted as a potential growth driver [41][48]. - The need for caution regarding economic recession risks and policy uncertainties is emphasized, particularly in relation to tariffs and Fed independence [26][37]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the U.S. Treasury market outlook and associated investment strategies for 2026.

Group 1 - The current futures IRR level is above 1.7%, slightly higher than funding rates and certificate of deposit rates, indicating that the cost of hedging is not high amid concerns about bond market adjustment risks [1] - Two strategies for national bond futures are suggested: 1) Opportunities in short-end credit spreads under loose funding conditions, such as hedging strategies between short-end credit and medium-term national development bonds with TF/TS; 2) Observing the central bank's bond purchases and easing conditions to identify opportunities for flattening the yield curve as short-end rates decline [1] - For medium to long-term bonds, attention should be paid to the convexity points around 8 years for national development bonds, and around 5 years for medium-term bonds [1] Group 2 - As of December 26, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year national bonds increased by 0.03%, while the national bond ETF for the same duration rose by 0.05%, with the latest price at 115.37 yuan [3] - The trading volume for the national bond ETF 5-10 years was 3.28% with a transaction value of 60.14 million yuan, and the average daily transaction over the past month was 794 million yuan [3] - The latest scale of the national bond ETF 5-10 years reached 1.84 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.73 million yuan recently, but a total inflow of 20.9 million yuan over the last 20 trading days [3] Group 3 - The national bond ETF 5-10 years has seen a net value increase of 21.17% over the past five years, ranking 32 out of 189 in index bond funds, placing it in the top 16.93% [3] - The fund has recorded a maximum monthly return of 2.58% since inception, with the longest consecutive monthly gains lasting 10 months and a maximum increase of 5.81% [3] - The historical probability of profit over three years is 100%, with a monthly profit probability of 70.39% [3] Group 4 - The maximum drawdown for the national bond ETF 5-10 years in the last six months was 1.09%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 0.58% [4] - The management fee for the national bond ETF 5-10 years is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05% [4] - The tracking error for the national bond ETF 5-10 years over the last two months was 0.022%, closely tracking the active bond index for 5-10 year national bonds [4]