Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market will continue to experience significant volatility into 2025, driven by policy dynamics and supply-demand imbalances, with U.S. policy movements being the largest variable affecting the market [1]. Oil Market - Oil prices are expected to gradually find a bottom, having fallen from $85 per barrel in January to $60 per barrel currently, exceeding previous expectations [1]. - The increase in oil supply in 2021 and 2022, coupled with a mismatch in supply and demand, has led to a sustained decline in oil prices [1]. - The U.S. government's aim to lower inflation by reducing oil prices and increasing energy production has been highlighted as a significant factor [2]. Demand Dynamics - Global oil demand remains strong, with a noted decline in U.S. demand, particularly in air travel, which decreased by approximately 2% from April to May [2]. - Despite the weakening demand in the U.S., international travel demand, especially from Europe, has reached new highs [2]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is stabilizing, with countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE diversifying their economies to reduce reliance on energy revenues [2]. - Investments in tourism, fintech, and logistics are becoming focal points for these regions, decreasing the likelihood of escalating regional conflicts [2]. Gold Market - Gold prices are projected to enter a long-term bull market, driven by central bank purchases and safe-haven demand [3]. - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, from 400 tons annually to 800 tons in 2022 and 1000 tons in 2023, with expectations of continued high demand [3][4]. - The emergence of new investors, particularly overseas holders of U.S. financial assets, is contributing to increased gold purchases, with a potential 0.5% shift of their $57 trillion in assets into gold leading to an additional 500 tons of demand annually [4]. Metal Market - The metal market, particularly copper, is facing challenges due to high prices and potential trade tensions, with copper currently priced at $9,500 per ton [4]. - The metal market is expected to be significantly impacted by U.S. policy changes, contrasting with the more stable outlook for oil prices [4].

今年5月以来，国际黄金市场经历剧烈震荡，继月初的暴涨后，近期又因多重因素出现回调，但市场对黄金的长期配置 价值仍存共识。以5月5日的行情为例，国际金价单日涨幅一度突破2.7%，现货黄金盘中触及3320美元/盎司，创下近两周 新高。这一波动背后，既反映了全球经济与地缘政治的深层博弈，也为投资者提供了新的布局窗口。 一、金价大涨的驱动逻辑：避险需求与政策博弈 1. 美元走弱与政策不确定性 5月初，美元指数跌至99.684，日内跌幅0.35%，以美元计价的黄金吸引力显著提升。同时，美国对海外电影征收100%关 税的激进政策、中东局势紧张以及俄乌谈判前景不明，均刺激资金涌入黄金市场。 2. 美联储降息预期反复 市场对美联储年内降息的预期一度升温，某机构预测若经济不着陆，黄金可能因降息周期开启而获得支撑。但随后公布 的美国经济数据韧性较强，又推迟了降息预期，导致金价波动加剧。 3. 央行购金与投资需求分化 2. 中长期配置注重分散风险 黄金在家庭资产中的配置比例建议为5%-15%，可通过定投黄金ETF或实物金条平滑波动。国内黄金ETF持仓量较年初增 长327%，显示机构对长期价值的认可。 3. 选择合规平台降低交易成本 ...

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the Indonesian government's decision to impose higher taxes on palm oil, which has sparked significant resistance from industry stakeholders [1] - The Ministry of Finance's aggressive tax policy aims to increase revenue but faces backlash from palm oil producers who argue it could harm their competitiveness [1] - Industry players are uniting to oppose the tax hikes, indicating a potential conflict between government policy and industry interests [1] Group 2 - The outcome of this policy battle could have significant implications for the palm oil market, affecting both domestic and international supply chains [1] - Stakeholders are concerned that increased taxation may lead to higher prices for consumers and reduced exports, impacting the overall economy [1] - The situation highlights the ongoing tension between regulatory measures and industry sustainability in the palm oil sector [1]

截至 4 月 27 日收盘，伦敦现货黄金价格报 3316.26 美元 / 盎司，较前一交易日下跌 32.24 美元，跌幅 0.96%，盘中最低触及 3264.99 美元 / 盎司关键支撑位，最高冲至 3370.58 美元 / 盎司，单日波动区间超百美元。纽约黄金期货主力合约收于 3330.2 美 元 / 盎司，跌幅 0.55%，成交量较前一日放大 15%，显示多空分歧加剧。 美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制金价 技术面与资金流向：高位震荡格局延续 1. 关键支撑与阻力位 后市展望：滞胀风险与政策转向的双重逻辑 当前黄金市场处于 "滞胀交易" 与 "政策博弈" 的十字路口。尽管短期受美元反弹与地缘风险降温压制，但全球央行购金、债务 危机与贸易摩擦等长期逻辑仍未改变。投资者需保持灵活，在美元强弱、通胀数据与政策信号中捕捉趋势，将黄金作为资产组 合的 "稳定器" 而非 "冲锋号"。 1. 美元指数技术性反弹 2. 美联储鹰派言论推动美元指数当日上涨 0.3% 至 99.5862，创近一周新高。尽管市场对 6 月降息概率预期仍达 66%，但鲍威 尔在 IMF 会议上强调 "通胀风险优先于短期市场波动"，并警告特朗普政府加征 ...

文/《清华金融评论》 王茅 北京时间4月2 4日凌晨，美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告（简 称《褐皮书》），这是"关税风暴"以来的第一份《褐皮书》，因此非常受 到市场的关注。 《褐皮书》显示，随着经济不确定性加剧，尤其是关税方面的不确定性， 几个地区的前景"显著恶化"。各地区价格均有所上涨，大多数地区指出， 企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。 本次 《褐皮书》的与众不同之处 和以后相比，美联储本次发布的《褐皮书》有以下显著特点： 一是"关税"提及频率创历史新高。 褐皮书报告有107次提到"关税"，是上一期的两倍多，远超特朗普第一任期峰值（51次）。89次提及"不确定性"，显示 关税政策反复无常对企业信心冲击极大。 二是经济前景显著恶化。 多个地区因关税不确定性导致前景"显著恶化"，企业普遍采取缩短定价周期、加收关税附加费等临时措施以应对成本压力。 三是消费者行为扭曲。 消费者赶在关税涨价前抢购汽车和非耐用品，但非汽车类消费整体萎缩，国际游客数量锐减。 四是就业市场分化。 政府职位及依赖财政的机构裁员，私营企业招聘放缓甚至酝酿裁员，反映出特朗普政府缩减联邦开支的影响。 《褐皮书》揭示的内容将产生哪些潜在 ...