| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | --- | --- | | 2026年1月23日 王法族 Z0019938 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 江苏均价 8550 50 0.58% | 8600 | | 期价 Y2605 8044 40 0.50% | 8084 | | 1.98% | | | 某差 Y2605 506 10 | 516 | | 现货基差报价 -20 - | | | 棕榈油 | | | 1月21日 张跃 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 现价 广东24度 8880 90 1.01% | 8970 | | 期价 P2605 8832 112 1.27% | 8944 | | 48 基差 P2605 -22 -45.83% | 26 | | 豆棕现货价差 现货 -330 -40 -12.12% | -370 | | 炼油厂豁免政策,市场对最终出台的法规持谨慎乐观态度,认为这些法规将对生物质 | | | 菜籽油 | | | 1月21日 狱跌 涨跌幅 | 1月22日 | | 江苏三级 9906 60 0.61% 现价 | | | 期价 OIROS 8947 રેર 0. ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views - Apple: The apple market shows a pattern of active production areas but sluggish sales areas, with the overall demand being weak. The price trend is clearly differentiated, with high - quality fruits supported by high warehouse - receipt costs and low excellent - fruit rates, while general - quality fruits are under pressure. The apple stocking progress is slow, and attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking, terminal consumption, and the sales of citrus fruits [3] - Red dates: Although the output of red dates this season has decreased, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant due to the combination of old - date inventory and new - date listing. The downstream stocking is mainly based on on - demand purchases, and the consumption recovery strength needs further observation. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival terminal sales, inventory reduction progress, and the impact of weather on logistics [7] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9418 yuan/ton, a change of +47 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.50% [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, also with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1218 changed by - 47 compared to the previous day, and the spot basis AP05 - 1018 also changed by - 47 [1] Red dates - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8740 yuan/ton, a change of +40 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a change rate of +0.46% [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 740 changed by - 40 compared to the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - The overall market situation in the production areas is stable, and the Spring Festival stocking is gradually progressing. The transaction has slightly improved compared to the previous period, but the volume of farmers' fruit sales is still limited. The sales areas have slow sales, and the transit warehouses are seriously overstocked [2] Red dates - The purchase of grey dates in Xinjiang production areas has ended. The raw material purchase adheres to the principle of pricing based on quality. In the sales areas, the market is in the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the actual prices vary according to the origin and quality [6][7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price rose and then fell yesterday, closing higher. The overall demand in the market is weak, and the price trend is differentiated. The current pattern is active production areas but sluggish sales areas, and it is significantly affected by low - price fruits such as cherries. Attention should be paid to the pre - Spring Festival stocking and terminal consumption [3] Red dates - The red date futures price fluctuated upward after opening lower yesterday. The purchase in the production areas has ended, and the industry's focus has shifted to terminal consumption. Although the output has decreased, the supply is still abundant. The downstream stocking is on - demand, and the consumption recovery needs further observation [7] Group 6: Strategy - The strategy for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [4][8]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities highlights a gradual recovery in demand for consumer goods, particularly in the restaurant chain sector, including frozen foods and condiments, driven by the upcoming Spring Festival stocking season [1] Group 1: Restaurant Sector Recovery - The recovery in the restaurant sector is expected to be driven by both the restoration of dining volume and prices, with a focus on the upcoming peak stocking season [1] - The small B-end (small businesses) is showing better recovery momentum compared to the large B-end (large businesses), with a year-on-year increase of 2.2% in December 2025 for social retail restaurant revenue [2] - The overall growth in social retail dining indicates a shift in recovery momentum towards the small B-end, with consistent improvement in revenue contributions from this segment [2] Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Price recovery is anticipated to come from optimizing product and channel structures, as companies currently lack the ability to raise prices directly [3] - The consumer price index (CPI) has shown a transition from mild deflation to moderate inflation, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer confidence [3] Group 3: Spring Festival Stocking - The Spring Festival is a critical stocking period for sectors such as condiments, snacks, and dairy products, necessitating close monitoring of stocking progress and consumer demand recovery [4]

Report Investment Rating - Investment rating for the apple market: Neutral [4] - Investment rating for the red date market: Neutral [8] Core Views - The apple market has started the pre - Spring Festival stocking process, but the overall stocking progress is slow. The demand is affected by factors such as the late Spring Festival, lack of consumer power, and the impact of substitute fruits. The price of high - quality apples is firm, while that of ordinary - quality apples is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking progress, sales area transaction atmosphere, inventory outflow, and citrus trading [2][3]. - The red date market has completed the acquisition in Xinjiang. Although there is a reduction in production this season, the overall supply is relatively loose due to the superposition of old and new supplies. The market has entered the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the downstream procurement has increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods is limited. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on logistics and stocking rhythm, and the actual sales speed and inventory clearance in the traditional twelfth lunar month [7]. Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9371 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (+0.28%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 - 1171 and AP05 - 971 decreased by 26 compared to the previous day [1]. Red Date - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8700 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton (-1.30%) from the previous day [5]. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 - 700 increased by 115 compared to the previous day [5]. Market Analysis Apple - The apple futures price opened low and closed down yesterday. The overall transaction in the production area is slow, and the demand is weak. The price of high - quality apples is firm, while that of ordinary - quality apples is under pressure. The stocking progress is slow, and the sales area has problems such as inventory backlog and weak demand due to the impact of substitute fruits [3]. Red Date - The red date futures price fluctuated at a low level yesterday. The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is focusing on terminal consumption. Although there is a production reduction, the supply is loose. The market has entered the stocking stage, and the downstream procurement has increased, but the acceptance of high - price goods is limited [7]. Strategy - The strategy for both the apple and red date markets is neutral [4][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [57]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Kweichow Moutai has released a market-oriented operation plan, with a focus on inventory preparation for the Spring Festival. The white liquor sector is experiencing a weak recovery in demand, prompting Moutai to implement various measures to adapt to market and consumer trends [4][52]. - The SW food and beverage industry index rose by 0.64% from January 2 to January 15, 2026, but underperformed the CSI 300 index by approximately 1.98 percentage points [11][12]. - Approximately 76% of stocks in the industry recorded positive returns during the same period, with notable gainers including Ziyuan Food (+33.73%) and Haoxiangni (+21.90%) [14]. - The overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the industry is approximately 20.47 times, which is below the five-year average of 31 times, indicating a potentially undervalued sector [15][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW food and beverage industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a rise of 0.64% from January 2 to January 15, 2026, ranking 28th among Shenwan's primary industries [11]. - Most sub-sectors also lagged behind the CSI 300 index, with the pre-processed food sector showing the highest increase of 4.91%, while the dairy sector experienced the largest decline of 3.70% [13]. Industry Data Tracking - **Liquor Sector**: The price of Feitian Moutai decreased to 1520 RMB per bottle, down 20 RMB from January 1, while the prices of other brands remained stable [21]. - **Condiment Sector**: Prices for soybean meal and white sugar increased slightly, while glass prices saw a decrease [24]. - **Beer Sector**: The price of aluminum increased significantly, while the price of corrugated paper decreased [31]. - **Dairy Sector**: The average price of fresh milk was 3.02 RMB per kilogram, showing a slight decrease [39]. - **Meat Sector**: The average wholesale price of pork rose to 18.00 RMB per kilogram, reflecting a month-on-month increase [41]. Important News - The report notes a 3.4% year-on-year decline in retail sales of tobacco and alcohol in November 2025, indicating potential challenges in consumer demand [43]. - A slight decrease in the national white liquor price index was reported for December, suggesting price stabilization in the market [44]. Company Announcements - Kweichow Moutai announced a share repurchase plan and a market-oriented operation strategy aimed at adapting to market changes [50]. - Eastroc Beverage projected a significant increase in annual net profit for 2025, indicating strong performance in the soft drink sector [51].

Group 1: Soybean and Protein Meal - CBOT soybeans fell to a 10-month low due to ample supply, with the USDA raising US soybean inventory and Brazilian export estimates [2][8] - Private exporters sold 168,000 tons of soybeans to China and 152,400 tons to Mexico, while Brazil expects to export 3.73 million tons in January, up from a previous estimate of 2.4 million tons [2][8] - Domestic protein meal prices are fluctuating, with all 1.13 million tons of imported soybeans auctioned off at a premium of 0-190 yuan/ton, indicating market concerns about supply in March-April [2][8] Group 2: Oil and Fats - BMD palm oil prices declined due to uncertainties surrounding Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy, although strong competition from other vegetable oils limited the drop [9] - US soybean oil prices increased amid expectations of improved biodiesel demand, while canola prices rose in anticipation of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [9] - Domestic oil prices are generally rising, with palm oil leading the increase, while canola prices are under pressure due to potential policy changes [9] Group 3: Live Pig Market - Live pig futures for the 2603 contract experienced fluctuations, closing up 0.51% at 11,795 yuan/ton, with the average price of live pigs in China at 12.76 yuan/kg, a slight increase from the previous day [4] - The slow pace of livestock sales and reduced supply support the rebound in live pig prices, despite short-term supply being relatively sufficient [4] Group 4: Egg Market - Egg futures for the 2603 contract saw a decline of 0.99%, closing at 2,990 yuan/500 kg, while the national average egg price was 3.46 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase [10] - The market is experiencing strong demand for pre-holiday stocking, but the ample supply limits the potential for significant price increases [10] Group 5: Corn Market - Corn futures for the 2603 contract initially fell before rising, with prices approaching the 2,300 yuan mark, driven by bullish sentiment [11] - The spot corn market is supported by pre-holiday stocking, although the overall trading activity remains moderate due to ample supply from auctions and imports [11]

Group 1: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The current market supply is sufficient, pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, and overall market transactions are light. Futures warehouse receipts are gradually increasing. Attention should be paid to the destocking progress of social inventory. In the short term, there is no obvious driver in the fundamentals, and futures prices will fluctuate and consolidate [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of red dates 2605, 2607, and 2609 contracts have different degrees of changes, with the 2609 contract rising 0.48%. The 5 - 7 spread increased by 11.11%, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 21.88%. The position decreased by 0.36%, while the warehouse receipts increased by 11.77%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 23.25% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade red dates remained stable or slightly decreased. The basis of special - grade red dates to the main contract increased by 82.61%, and that of first - grade red dates decreased by 4.00% [1]. Group 2: Apples Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory. With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, market activity has increased. In the medium - to - long term, good - quality apples are in short supply and prices are firm, but high prices may suppress consumption. Other fruits with price advantages will squeeze the apple market, and the inventory pressure of ordinary apples is large. Therefore, the futures market will fluctuate at a high level, showing a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The price of the apple 2605 (main) contract decreased by 0.61%, and the 2610 contract increased by 0.11%. The basis increased by 3.96%, and the 5 - 10 spread decreased by 5.59%. The position decreased by 10.69% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets increased. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, and the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 4.38% [3]. Group 3: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View ICE raw - sugar futures closed down, but the decline was limited by the weakening dollar. The market's focus has shifted to Brazil's 26/27 sugar - crushing season starting in April. The rainfall in Brazil is conducive to sugar - cane growth, and India's production is strong, while Thailand's crushing progress is slow. Overall, raw - sugar prices will fluctuate between 14.5 - 15.5 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, in line with market expectations. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, transactions are acceptable, and enterprises mainly sell at market prices. Considering the expected increase in production, the market is cautious, and sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of sugar 2605 and 2609 contracts decreased, and the ICE raw - sugar main contract decreased by 0.47%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 45.45%. The position of the main contract decreased by 0.33%, the warehouse receipts increased by 48.86%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 42.38% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Nanning and Kunming decreased or remained stable. The basis of Nanning decreased by 8.54%, and that of Kunming increased by 5.17%. The prices of imported Brazilian sugar (both within and outside the quota) decreased [10]. Group 4: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View ICE cotton futures closed slightly higher. The January USDA supply - and - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lower production estimates. The drought index in the US cotton - growing areas continued to rise, but it is still early for sowing. USDA export sales have declined continuously, and export expectations may be lowered. It is expected that US cotton will maintain a low - level fluctuation pattern. Zhengzhou cotton is supported by the rigid demand of textile enterprises at low prices, but the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed. The fundamental positives have been fully priced in, and the adverse factors are increasing. Overall, the upward trend remains, but in the short term, cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of cotton 2605 and 2609 contracts decreased, and the ICE cotton main contract increased by 0.12%. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 8.11%. The position decreased by 3.66%, the warehouse receipts increased by 5.14%, and the effective forecasts decreased by 4.57% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton and CC Index 3128B decreased. The basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts decreased [13]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, imports increased by 33.3%, and bonded - area inventory increased by 15.8%. The inventory days of yarn and grey fabric changed, and the processing profit and retail sales of related products also changed [13]. Group 5: Corn and Corn Starch Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Snowfall in the Northeast affects the supply, and downstream pre - festival stocking supports prices. Futures price increases boost market sentiment, and prices in the producing areas and northern ports are strong. In North China, the grain - selling rhythm is stable, and prices fluctuate slightly. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises still have the intention to replenish stocks, but their acceptance of high - priced corn is limited. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventories and mainly conduct rolling replenishment. In terms of policies, the targeted auction of imported corn and the release of policy corn continue, but the scale is limited. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the rigid - demand stocking intention of downstream enterprises support the strong operation of corn prices. Attention should be paid to changes in farmers' selling attitudes and policy releases [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Corn Futures Market**: The price of the corn 2603 contract increased by 1.19%. The basis decreased by 25.37%, the 3 - 7 spread increased by 115.38%, and the position increased by 3.99%. The warehouse receipts increased by 4.16% [16]. - **Corn Starch Futures Market**: The price of the corn starch 2603 contract decreased by 1.22%. The basis decreased by 16.85%, the 3 - 7 spread increased by 38.30%, and the position increased by 1.46%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged [16]. Group 6: Oils Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Palm Oil**: After the release of the MPOB report's negative news and the support of positive export data, crude palm - oil futures may rise to 4200 - 4250 ringgit. In the domestic market, affected by the synchronous rise of Malaysian palm oil and pre - festival stocking expectations, Dalian palm - oil futures may continue to strengthen and approach 9000 yuan [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report is bearish, CBOT soybeans will enter a stagnant - rise and callback phase, and CBOT soybean oil may follow. In the domestic market, the inventory of factory soybean oil is decreasing, but the USDA reports are bearish, and Dalian soybean oil will be dragged down, with the market testing the support at 7900 yuan [19]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The limited increase in international crude oil has weak support for the domestic vegetable - oil market. The visit of the Canadian prime minister has raised concerns about a loose supply of rapeseed oil. Rapeseed oil fell rapidly after reaching the 9000 - yuan mark. However, due to the unclear Sino - Canadian trade relationship and the digestion of negative news about Malaysian palm - oil inventory, the probability of large - scale short - selling is low, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range fluctuation pattern. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high due to the delay in crushing [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of Y2605 and P2605 contracts changed. The positions and warehouse receipts of palm oil and soybean oil also had different degrees of changes [19]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu's first - grade soybean oil, Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil, and Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil changed, and the basis and import costs also changed [19]. Group 7: Pigs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Spot prices have returned to a volatile pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig slaughter has decreased, while southern demand has dropped significantly, suppressing spot prices. Although there is still some second - fattening replenishment in some areas, due to the relatively high current pig prices, the overall enthusiasm is limited. The market expects an increase in supply. Although there is speculation about pre - Spring Festival consumption, it is expected that pigs will be slaughtered in mid - to - late January, and with the expected increase in supply from large - scale farms, the supply in January will be relatively abundant. The upward space for the phased futures market is limited, and it is recommended to short at high prices [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the main contracts of live pigs changed, the basis of the main contract was 1165, and the position increased by 0.84%. The warehouse receipts remained unchanged [22]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of live pigs in different regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan changed. The slaughter volume, white - strip prices, and other indicators also had different degrees of changes [20][21]. Group 8: Eggs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View On the supply side, the recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' enthusiasm for culling laying hens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to the weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. Overall, the supply is still in an oversupply stage. On the demand side, food enterprises are in the peak production season, and procurement is increasing. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, festival stocking has started, but household consumption has not changed significantly. The increase in demand is mainly reflected in inventory turnover. After the recent price increase, there is short - term digestion pressure, and prices may decline slightly. Considering the relatively loose supply, it is expected that futures prices will fluctuate at a low level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of the egg 03 and 04 contracts decreased. The basis increased by 59.63%, and the 3 - 4 spread decreased by 0.36% [23]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of egg - laying chicks, culled hens, and the egg - to - feed ratio increased. The breeding profit increased by 18.01% [23]. Group 9: Meal Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View US soybeans are strong due to capital and sentiment. The market is looking forward to the USDA supply - and - demand report for new trading guidance. China's soybean - buying speed is fast, and the supply will be continuously replenished. The visit of Canada to China has brought positive signals, and the price of domestic rapeseed products has dropped, dragging down the soybean - meal market. The domestic spot market remains loose, and soybean and soybean - meal inventories are still at a high level. The expectation of a large number of auctions also suppresses the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and the arrival rhythm is uncertain, the downside space of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, the market sentiment is positive, and the market will fluctuate within a range [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Futures Market**: The prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean contracts changed. The spreads between different contracts and the oil - meal ratios also changed [24]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Jiangsu's soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybeans remained stable or changed slightly. The basis of each variety also had different degrees of changes [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].

Group 1: Swine Market Overview - The futures market for live pigs closed at 11,770 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, a decrease of 25 yuan from the previous week [3] - In the spot market, the price of external three yuan pigs in Henan is 12.93 yuan/kg, up 0.28 yuan/kg from last week, while in Jiangsu it is 13.19 yuan/kg, up 0.19 yuan/kg, and in Sichuan it is 12.98 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg [3][12] - The average weight of external three yuan pigs slaughtered nationwide is 123.32 kg, a slight decrease of 0.03 kg from last week [4][14] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The number of breeding sows in December was 5.0202 million, a slight decrease of 0.18% month-on-month and a year-on-year decline of 0.47% [4][13] - The slaughtering rate of enterprises is 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week but up 0.68 percentage points year-on-year [4][15] - The demand for pork has shown a downward trend post-holiday, with a slowdown in fresh product turnover and a decrease in fresh sales rate by 0.59% [4][15] Group 3: Market Trends and Price Movements - The pig price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the average price increasing week-on-week after a slight decline at the beginning of the week [5][14] - The market sentiment is gradually improving, supported by a decrease in supply and an increase in demand for piglets post-holiday [6][15] - The price of piglets has seen a significant increase in the short term, indicating a potential recovery in replenishment demand [6][15] Group 4: Egg Market Overview - The futures market for eggs closed at 3,040 yuan/500 kg on January 9, 2026, an increase of 89 yuan, or 3.02% [8][16] - The number of laying hens in December was approximately 1.295 billion, a decrease of 0.92% month-on-month but an increase of 7.11% year-on-year [8][16] - The inventory levels in production and circulation segments have decreased, indicating a normalization of stock levels [9][17] Group 5: Demand and Supply in Egg Market - The demand for eggs has been stimulated by pre-Spring Festival stocking, leading to increased purchasing activity among traders [9][17] - The overall supply remains relatively abundant, with a slower rate of old hen culling impacting the supply dynamics [9][17] - The market sentiment is expected to support egg prices in the near term, although there is a need to monitor potential price corrections [9][17]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both the apple and红枣 industries is neutral [4][8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The trading speed of apple production areas is differentiated, with transactions improving in Shaanxi and Shanxi, but overall slow. The low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales. The market is waiting for the Spring Festival stocking to drive up sales [2][3][4] - 红枣: Although the current year's production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant due to sufficient inventory. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract was 9583 yuan/ton, a change of -31 yuan/ton or -0.32% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first and second-grade late Fuji was 4.10 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 above semi-commodity late Fuji was 4.20 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price opened high and closed low. Different production areas have different trading speeds. The consumption peak season may drive up sales, but the low-price alternative fruits in the sales area suppress the sales of apples. The excellent fruit rate is low, the hardness of cold storage fruits is insufficient, and the delivery cost is high [3] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The Spring Festival stocking season is approaching, but the low excellent fruit rate and high price of excellent fruits, along with the impact of alternative fruits, suppress sales [4] 红枣 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the 红枣 2605 contract was 9150 yuan/ton, a change of +175 yuan/ton or +1.95% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first-grade grey jujube in Hebei was 8.20 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [6] Market Analysis - The 红枣 futures price closed higher at a high level. The acquisition work in the production area has basically ended. Although the production has decreased, the market supply is still abundant. The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the sales speed is average. The market trend depends on the release of consumption demand and festival stocking progress [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. The new and old stocks of 红枣 are sufficient. The sales speed in the sales area is average, and the price fluctuates at a low level. Pay attention to the downstream sales atmosphere, acquisition price changes, and peak season consumption changes [8]