Market Overview - A-shares ended the third quarter positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 3882.78 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.35% to 13526.51 points, while the ChiNext Index remained nearly flat [1] - The overall market showed a fluctuating upward trend in the first three quarters, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 15.84%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 29.88%, and both the ChiNext Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 51.2% [1] Sector Performance - Growth stocks led the market, particularly technology stocks represented by telecommunications and electronics, while consumer stocks like food and beverage and cyclical stocks like coal showed weak performance [1] - In total, 4379 A-shares rose in the first three quarters, accounting for about 80%, with 448 stocks doubling in value, while over a thousand stocks declined, with 154 experiencing a drop of more than 20% [1] Future Market Trends - Historical data indicates that the fourth quarter typically sees an upward trend from October to mid-November, followed by fluctuations from late November to late December, with the most significant profit-making period expected in early November [1] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to have positive policy expectations, with the introduction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" expected to provide new thematic investment opportunities [2] - The AI sector is viewed as a key area of growth, with expectations for continued interest in high-end manufacturing and new energy sectors such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and wind power [3] Investment Opportunities - The potential for foreign capital inflow is supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, while domestic risk-free interest rates are declining, enhancing the attractiveness of equity assets [2] - The focus remains on emerging technologies and high-end manufacturing, with an increased allocation to cyclical finance, particularly in the context of the Hong Kong stock market benefiting from U.S. monetary policy changes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that while the Hong Kong stock market is experiencing short-term volatility, the long-term upward trend remains intact, suggesting a focus on structural themes rather than index points [1] - The report identifies AI technology and non-ferrous metals as the two main investment themes, with Alibaba (09988) being the preferred choice in the AI sector due to its full-stack AI capabilities, and attention on copper price upward opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The report recommends increasing allocation to sectors experiencing a reversal of difficulties, such as essential consumption, high dividend strategies, and undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks, while avoiding excessive concentration risk in holdings [1] Group 2 - Last week (September 22-26), the Hong Kong stock market saw a general decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 1.57% and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 1.58%, while the AH premium significantly widened to 120 [1] - From an industry perspective, most major sectors in the Hong Kong stock market experienced declines, with only the materials sector showing an increase, while sectors such as conglomerates, real estate, and essential consumption led the declines [1] - In terms of micro-funding, there was a net outflow of Hong Kong capital, while both southbound and foreign capital saw net inflows: 1) Southbound capital had a total net inflow of HKD 44 billion, primarily flowing into non-essential consumption and information technology; 2) Foreign capital net bought USD 555 million through ETFs; 3) Local Hong Kong ETFs also saw a net inflow of HKD 7.7 billion, totaling a net inflow of HKD 59.6 billion year-to-date [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market opened higher on September 29, with the Hang Seng Index at 26,321 points, up 193 points, a 0.74% increase, and the Hang Seng Tech Index at 6,236 points, up 41 points, a 0.67% increase [1] - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical-B (02105.HK) saw a surge of over 30% after announcing positive preliminary results from its LAE102 Phase I multi-dose escalation study for obesity, which included overweight/obese participants with an average BMI of 29.4 kg/m² [3] - In the LAE102 study, the 6 mg/kg dose group showed an average lean body mass increase of 1.7% and a fat mass reduction of 2.2% by week 5, with adjusted averages showing a 4.6% increase in lean body mass and a 3.6% reduction in fat mass compared to the placebo group [3] - The study results align with previous Phase I single-dose escalation study findings, demonstrating good tolerability and safety, with no serious adverse events reported [3] - Lai Kai Pharmaceutical is actively negotiating with potential partners to accelerate the clinical development and commercialization of LAE102 [3] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests increased volatility, but the long-term upward trend remains intact, with AI being a key focus for the Hong Kong stock market [6] - The metals sector is expected to benefit from liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [6] - Recommendations include focusing on technology (including AI internet and high-end manufacturing) and metals as market mainstays, while also considering undervalued insurance stocks and high-dividend value strategies [6] - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks may be suitable for bottom-up investment [6]

2025 年 09 月 29 日 双融日报 最近一年大盘走势 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 相关研究 1、《双融日报》2025-09-26 2、《双融日报》2025-09-25 3、《双融日报》2025-09-24 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 39 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：39 分（较冷） 今日热点主题：人工智能、有色金属、储能 1、人工智能主题：阿里集团董事兼首席执行官吴泳铭 9 月 24 日在 2025 云栖大会上表示，大模型是下一代操作系统， 而 AI 云是下一代计算机，也许未来全世界只会有五六个超级 云计算平台。目前阿里正积极推进 3800 亿元的 AI 基础设施 建设，并计划追加更大的投入。相关标的：工业富联 （601138）、中际旭创（300308） 2、有色金属主题：印尼格拉斯伯格矿区因山体滑坡推迟复工 至 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced significant fluctuations since September, with various sectors such as solid-state batteries, robotics, non-ferrous metals, and gaming emerging as new hotspots, indicating a notable acceleration in market rotation [1] - Funds heavily invested in AI computing have shown signs of portfolio adjustments, with some funds deviating from their holdings, suggesting a shift in strategy [2][3] - The performance of certain funds has diverged from their estimated returns, indicating potential reallocation of assets despite the underlying stocks' performance [2][3] Group 2 - Consumer funds have also exhibited signs of "cutting losses" and reallocating their portfolios, with some funds showing gains despite their major holdings declining [4][5] - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on emerging trends, such as the rise of domestic brands and innovative consumer products, indicating a shift in investment strategy towards sectors with higher growth potential [5][6] - The current market environment presents challenges for active management, as rapid sector rotation requires fund managers to adapt their strategies dynamically [7] Group 3 - There is an expectation of increased stock differentiation as market valuations rise, with a continued focus on AI computing-related assets, while new opportunities may arise in adjacent sectors like AR glasses and the Apple supply chain [8] - Fund managers are optimistic about the prospects of AI computing assets, particularly in relation to the global AI industry chain, while also recognizing the growing connection between AI and Chinese semiconductor companies [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (Three empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆ (Two empty stars, not specified in the given star - rating description) [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Tin: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish or bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] Core Views - The overall performance of the non - ferrous metals market shows different trends, with some metals being affected by supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and external events [1][2][5]. - Some metals are expected to continue their current trends, while others are facing uncertainties and may enter a period of adjustment or consolidation. Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper significantly increased its positions and continued its upward trend, actively digesting the force majeure of the Grasberg copper mine and domestic smelters' "anti - involution" statements [1]. - Global mine - end supply is tightening, and the environment for processing fee negotiations is difficult. The spot copper price has risen to 82,505 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan in Shanghai and a refined - scrap price difference exceeding 4,500 yuan [1]. - LME copper is expected to reach $10,500, and the Shanghai copper index may break through the previous high this year and continue to rise to 84,000 yuan [1]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with the East China spot at par. The apparent demand in September was lower than expected, and the aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 21,000 tons compared to Monday, with pre - National Day destocking less than in previous years [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price increasing by 100 yuan to 20,400 yuan [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is approaching 98 million tons, hitting a new high, and the industry inventory is continuously rising. Supply is significantly in excess, and prices are falling. The current price still allows for profit in the production capacity of Shanxi and Henan, making it difficult to trigger production cuts, and alumina is weakly running towards the June low of 2,800 yuan [2]. Zinc - Driven by the sharp rise in copper prices, the non - ferrous metal sector was generally strong, and Shanghai zinc rebounded to recover the previous day's decline. LME zinc rebounded after returning to the 40 - day moving average due to low overseas inventories [2]. - Fundamentally, the domestic market is weak while the overseas market is strong, and the Shanghai - London ratio is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Domestic consumption during the peak season is weak, and due to tariff impacts, galvanized sheet exports weakened in August. Affected by the super typhoon "Saola", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened [2]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate around the 22,000 - yuan mark [2]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated, and market trading was dull. The sharp rise in external copper prices drove up nickel prices, but the improvement in its own fundamentals was limited [5]. - The upward trend of stainless steel spot prices is difficult to sustain, but the pre - National Day stocking demand is gradually emerging. Stainless steel mills are still in a state of cost inversion, and cost - side support is emerging [5]. - Nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. Shanghai nickel has exhausted its bullish themes, and nickel prices are weakly running and about to start a downward trend [5]. Tin - Shanghai tin closed up, and the spot tin price increased by 2,300 yuan to 273,700 yuan. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance of LME tin at $34,500 at night, and LME tin inventory rose to 2,740 tons. Wait for the social inventory data tomorrow and take a short - term wait - and - see approach [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are in a short - term strong - side oscillation, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons [6]. - The low - price support for lithium prices is emerging, but the selling actions in the industrial chain are basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of the "anti - involution" trend, the price is expected to be under pressure [6]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up at 9,055 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,500 yuan/ton [6]. - The operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan maintained their high operating rates during the wet season. However, the incremental release of demand from polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the social inventory of industrial silicon increased week - on - week [6]. - Driven by market sentiment and the expected increase in costs, the futures price is short - term strong, but the support for continuous rise is insufficient, and it will mainly continue to oscillate [6]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly up. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re - feeding materials was basically stable at 50,100 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM) [6]. - In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month change. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon are expected to be synchronously reduced, and polysilicon still faces a slight inventory accumulation pressure [6]. - On the policy side, the capacity clearance continues to be gradually promoted, and the futures price is temporarily oscillating at the lower end of the range [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the evolving structure and volatility characteristics of the A-share market, driven by the expansion of passive investment and the influence of quantitative trading, leading to increased market differentiation and frequent shifts in hot sectors [1][2] - The performance of actively managed small and medium-sized fund companies, such as Hengyue Fund, has gained market attention, with 7 out of 10 actively managed equity products achieving over 70% growth in the past year [1] - Hengyue Fund's Hengyue Advantage Select Mixed Fund has seen its net value rise from 0.46 yuan per share to 1.28 yuan per share, marking it as one of the few equity funds in the market to double its net value [1] Group 2 - Hengyue Fund emphasizes the increasing adaptability of actively managed equity funds to the current and future A-share market, allowing for more flexible exploration of alpha opportunities in small and mid-cap stocks, exclusion of poorly performing stocks, and focus on high-certainty performance targets [2] - The fund manager expresses optimism about sectors benefiting from rapid industrial development, such as AI computing and applications, as well as non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, while anticipating continued high volatility in the index [2]

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced narrow fluctuations, while the ChiNext Index rose over 2%, reaching a new three-year high, with CATL's stock hitting an all-time high [1] - AI hardware and applications saw collective strength, with companies like Cambridge Technology and Inspur Information hitting their daily limit [1] - The controlled nuclear fusion concept surged, with Shanghai Electric and Hezhong Intelligent hitting their daily limit [1] - The chip industry chain remained active, with Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Kaimete Gas achieving historical highs [1] - The shipping sector faced collective adjustments, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Shipping dropping over 5% [1] - Over 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets declined, with a total transaction volume of 2.39 trillion [1] Daily Highlights Nuclear Fusion - The nuclear fusion concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Hezhong Intelligent, Haheng Huaton, and Wujin Stainless Steel hitting their daily limit [4] - China Fusion Energy Co., established with a registered capital of 15 billion yuan, made its public debut at the 25th China International Industry Fair, showcasing its technology and business layout [4] - The company aims for commercial fusion energy by 2050, with plans to build a fusion experimental device named "China Circulation No. 4 (HL-4)" in Shanghai [4] Computing Power - The computing power sector was active, with Zhongdian Xindong achieving three daily limits in four days, and stocks like Ningbo Construction and Guangdian Electric hitting their daily limit [7] - Alibaba's CEO announced increased capital expenditure at the 2025 Cloud Summit, with a focus on large-scale clusters and distributed training capabilities [7] - The GPU cloud rental market is expected to grow significantly, reaching $12.8 billion by 2033 due to the demand for AI training and inference [9] Nonferrous Metals - The nonferrous metals sector saw a surge, with stocks like Jingyi Co. and Nairui Mining hitting their daily limit [10] - A fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia led to a significant rise in global copper prices, with LME copper prices increasing by 3.2% [10] - Goldman Sachs classified the incident as a "black swan," predicting a potential loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12-15 months [10] Additional Insights - The nuclear fusion sector is expected to see increased orders as research and development progress, with a focus on core components like magnets and power supplies [6] - The high-temperature superconductors are projected to capture 25% of the global superconducting market by 2030, driven by demand from the nuclear fusion industry [6] - The domestic copper market is anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to supply constraints and increasing demand from energy transition and emerging industries [12]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 09 月 23 日 | ◆股指： | 宏观金融 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | --- | --- | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢低做多 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 观望或逢低持多，短线交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡运行 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆纯碱： | 空 01 多 05 套利 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡运行 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡运行 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡运行 | | ◆PTA： | 震荡运行 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡偏弱 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 9 月 23 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天震荡拉升，三大指数均收涨 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3828.58 | 0.22% | 8.49 | | | 深证成指 | 13157.97 | 0.67% | 87.11 | | | 沪深 300 | 4522.61 | 0.46% | 20.69 | | | 创业板 | 3107.89 | 0.55% | 16.88 | | | 科创 50 | 1408.64 | 3.38% | 46.00 | | | 北证 50 | 1589.19 | 0.71% | 11.19 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电子 | 3.71% | 社会服务 | ...