Group 1: US-India Trade Relations - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, which is more severe than tariffs on other major trading partners, escalating tensions in US-India relations [1][2] - India's opposition parties criticized Prime Minister Modi's government for failing to protect national interests, highlighting the negative impact on various industries [2] - Modi's government condemned the US measures as political coercion and a violation of WTO rules, leading to formal protests and retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products [2] Group 2: Economic Impact on India - Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) turned net sellers in July, withdrawing ₹177.41 billion from Indian stock markets, marking the first monthly outflow after three months of inflows [5] - The Nifty 50 index has experienced a continuous five-week decline, the longest streak in two years, with the IT sector seeing a 10% drop [5][6] - The Indian rupee has depreciated by 1.2% in the past week, the largest weekly decline since December 2022, and is projected to be one of the weakest currencies in Asia for 2025 [1][6] Group 3: Ongoing Trade Negotiations - Despite US threats regarding oil imports from Russia, India plans to continue purchasing Russian oil, citing long-term contracts [3] - India's government is engaged in trade negotiations with the US but remains firm on key agricultural interests, particularly against dairy imports [2][3] - Upcoming meetings, such as the IMEC conference, may provide opportunities for dialogue, but success depends on both governments' willingness to set aside differences [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report continues the previous analytical framework of "USD - mid - price - spot price" to judge the direction and rhythm of the USD/CNY exchange rate. With the "steep cooling" of the non - farm payrolls data, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY will have increased volatility and a slowdown in appreciation expectations. Whether the 7.20 level is "effectively broken" depends on the policy signals from the mid - price. Currently, the mid - price of USD/CNY shows a clear "stabilizing" orientation. In the context of sufficient policy tools and reduced external pressure, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD in the short term, with a short - term trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [1][14]. - The report is cautious about the view that the US economy can withstand the impact of tariffs. The seemingly strong US economic data are just short - term fluctuations, and problems such as slow domestic demand growth, persistent inflation pressure, and weak investment activities remain unsolved. The July non - farm payrolls report indicates that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability and transparency of official employment data are declining [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of 16:30 on August 1, the US Dollar Index continued to appreciate compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, Japanese Yen, Euro, and British Pound all remained under pressure against the US Dollar [3]. - Market quotes for various exchange rates are provided, including the USD/CNY mid - price, spot rates, and cross - exchange rates. For example, the USD/CNY mid - price increased by 0.108%, the USD/CNY spot rate rose by 0.596%, and the USD/CNH spot rate increased by 0.736% [4]. 3.2 USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate Weekly Review - Last week, the US Dollar Index continued to rebound, supported by the market's selling pressure on the Euro due to the agreement between the US and Europe and overall positive economic data. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate also rose steadily. However, the weak non - farm payrolls data on Friday caused a significant drop in the US Dollar Index [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The report is skeptical about the view that the US economy can resist tariff impacts. The seemingly good economic data are short - term fluctuations, and underlying problems in the US economy persist. The July non - farm payrolls report is a key evidence. It shows that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability of official employment data is decreasing [10][12][13]. - The report continues the previous analytical framework. With the poor non - farm payrolls data, the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will increase, and the appreciation expectation will slow down. The 7.20 level's "effective breakthrough" depends on the mid - price policy signals. In the short term, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD, with a trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [14]. 3.4 RMB Market Observation 3.4.1 Policy Tools Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the mid - price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1496, depreciating 77 basis points from the previous Friday [16]. 3.4.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In June 2025, banks settled 14900 billion RMB and sold 13083 billion RMB. From January to June 2025, cumulative settlements were 82135 billion RMB, and cumulative sales were 83950 billion RMB. In US dollars, June settlements were 2077 billion, and sales were 1823 billion. From January to June, cumulative settlements were 11432 billion, and cumulative sales were 11685 billion. Bank - customer foreign - related income and payments data are also provided [18]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between the off - shore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight increase in overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB against the USD [24]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH was 7.0269, up from the previous Friday. Most risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed a slight increase in the market's depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [26]. 3.4.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [30][31]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [33][35]. 3.5 Key Data and Events 3.5.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. The national childcare subsidy system was announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year. In June 2025, China had a trade surplus of 701 billion US dollars in goods and services. In 2024, the "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7%. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3% [39][40]. - **US**: The US Treasury increased the borrowing estimate to 1 trillion US dollars this quarter. The June goods trade deficit narrowed by 10.8%. The second - quarter GDP grew by 3% annually. The July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The US will resume "reciprocal tariffs" [41][42]. - **UK**: No key events were reported. - **Eurozone**: Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement was determined, details remained to be negotiated. The second - quarter GDP grew by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter and 1.4% year - on - year. Germany and Italy's economies contracted in the second quarter [43]. - **Japan**: No key events were reported. - **Other**: Australia's second - quarter CPI rose by 2.1% year - on - year. The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 2.75% [44][45]. 3.5.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Statements - **People's Bank of China**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange monitoring and management [45][46]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Trump made a series of tariff - related announcements. Fed理事Kugler will leave office early. New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [48][50]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the 2025 core CPI forecast [51]. - **European Central Bank**: ECB hawkish official Kazimir said the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [52]. - **Bank of England**: No statements were reported. - **Other**: The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes showed that most members considered further interest - rate cuts, and the bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% [54]. 3.5.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - A list of key data and events for this week is provided, including US Treasury bill auction rates, Eurozone PPI, US trade data, and China's CPI and PPI [55]. 3.6 International Related Quotes 3.6.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Quotes - Charts of exchange rates such as the US Dollar Index, Euro/USD, USD/KRW, and others are provided [58][60]. 3.6.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts of assets including the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Brent crude oil, London gold, and others are provided [80][81][83]. 3.6.3 Liquidity - Charts of central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are provided [90][91][92]. 3.6.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts of Sino - US interest rate spreads at different tenors, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields are provided [94][95]. 3.6.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - A chart of the three major RMB exchange rate indices is provided [97].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 profit declined by 4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak performance in its insurance business [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of $12.37 billion for Q2, down from $30.3 billion in the same period last year [1] - Earnings per Class A share were $8,601, compared to $21,122 a year earlier [1] - Operating profit, excluding certain investment gains, fell by 4% to $11.16 billion [1] Business Segment Analysis - The decline in insurance underwriting business offset growth in the railroad, energy, and manufacturing service retail sectors [1] - If currency fluctuations are excluded, operating profit would have exceeded the previous year's figures [1] Currency Impact - The depreciation of the dollar resulted in a reduction of $877 million in after-tax operating profit [1] - In the same quarter last year, currency changes contributed approximately $446 million in gains [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of First REIT has been negatively impacted by fluctuations in the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate, leading to a downgrade in its rating from "Buy" to "Hold" by OCBC Bank, while maintaining a target price of SGD 0.27 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - First REIT's DPU for the first half of 2025 was SGD 0.0113, a decrease of 5.8% year-on-year, falling short of analyst expectations primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations [2] - Rental income and net property income (NPI) for the first half of 2025 declined by 2.9% and 2.7% year-on-year, amounting to SGD 50.5 million and SGD 48.9 million respectively; excluding currency effects, the property portfolio in Indonesia and Japan would have seen a rental growth of 5.5% [2] - The total distributable amount decreased by 4.8% year-on-year to SGD 23.8 million [2] Group 2: Analyst Predictions - Analysts at OCBC Bank have lowered their DPU forecasts for FY2025 and FY2026 by 3.8% and 3.2% respectively, citing ongoing currency headwinds [3] - Despite the downgrade, the fair value estimate remains at SGD 0.27 due to lower risk-free rate assumptions partially offsetting the rise in risk premiums [3] - The current closing price of SGD 0.280 indicates a tight valuation [3] Group 3: Strategic Review and Market Outlook - First REIT is undergoing a strategic review of its Indonesian hospital asset portfolio, having received an initial acquisition interest from PT Siloam International Hospitals [4] - Analysts recommend a "wait-and-see" approach for investors until the results of the strategic review are clearer [4] - The trust benefits from a weighted average lease expiry (WALE) of 10.1 years, providing stable cash flow, alongside structural trends such as aging population and increasing demand for quality healthcare services [4] - As of June 30, 2025, the trust's leverage ratio has slightly increased to 41.2%, with outstanding rent from tenant PT Metropolis Propertindo Utama accumulating to SGD 7 million [4]

Core Points - The US dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen, rising by 0.71% to 149.52 yen, with a trading range of 147.81 to 149.53 yen during the day [1] - The release of US GDP data and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference led to two waves of upward movement in the market [1] - The euro and British pound both declined against the yen, with the euro down 0.52% and the pound down 0.13% [1] Currency Movements - The euro fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the British pound decreased by 0.84% against the dollar [1] - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar dropped by 1.15% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 1.00% [1] - The US dollar appreciated against the Canadian dollar by 0.44% [1] Other Currency Trends - The Swedish krona declined by 1.47% against the US dollar, and the Norwegian krone decreased by 1.18% [1] - The Danish krone fell by 1.24% against the US dollar, while the Polish zloty dropped by 1.14% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of the year, achieving sales of €80.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, while expressing caution regarding future growth due to economic and geopolitical uncertainties [1][5]. Financial Performance - The second quarter sales reached €39.1 billion, reflecting a 9% year-on-year growth, which is an acceleration from the first quarter's 7.2% [2] - The operating profit for the first half increased from €31.5 billion to €33.3 billion, but net profit decreased from €23.7 billion to €22.5 billion [3] - Operating cash flow was €27.33 billion, down 3.4% year-on-year, while adjusted free cash flow rose 4% to €18.47 billion [4] Business Segment Performance - The leather goods and saddlery segment generated €35.78 billion in revenue, growing 12.4% and accounting for nearly 45% of total revenue [4][9] - The ready-to-wear and accessories segment saw a 5.5% increase to €22.55 billion, while the watch segment declined by 7.9% to €2.81 billion [4][11] - The perfume and cosmetics segment shrank by 3.8% to €2.48 billion, attributed to a high base effect from last year's new product launches [4][12] Regional Performance - The Japanese market exhibited a strong growth of 16%, with revenues reaching €8.15 billion, while the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) only grew by 3% [4][12] - The Americas market showed a stable growth of 12%, with revenues of €14.55 billion, primarily driven by double-digit growth in the U.S. [4][12] Profitability and Challenges - The operating margin for the first half was 41.4%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point decline year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability [13] - The company highlighted a negative impact of €77 million from currency fluctuations on revenue, alongside ongoing capital expenditure pressures from capacity expansion investments [14]

Core Insights - Hermes reported a 9% year-on-year sales growth in Q2, with revenue reaching €3.91 billion, although slightly below market expectations of €3.92 billion [1] - The company's net profit decreased from €2.37 billion to €2.25 billion, despite an increase in operating profit [1][3] - The overall sales for the first half of the year amounted to €8.034 billion, reflecting an 8.1% increase compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was €3.91 billion, up 9% year-on-year, accelerating from 7.2% growth in Q1 [1] - Operating profit for the first half rose from €3.15 billion to €3.33 billion, while net profit fell from €2.37 billion to €2.25 billion [1] - Operating cash flow was €2.733 billion, down 3.4% year-on-year, while adjusted free cash flow increased by 4% to €1.847 billion [1] Business Segment Analysis - Leather goods and saddlery generated €3.578 billion in revenue, growing 12.4%, and accounted for nearly 45% of total revenue [6] - Ready-to-wear and accessories saw a 5.5% increase to €2.255 billion, while silk and textiles grew 3.5% to €447 million [1][7] - The perfume and beauty segment declined by 3.8% to €248 million, and watch revenue fell by 7.9% to €281 million [1][7] Regional Performance - Japan exhibited a strong growth of 16%, with revenue reaching €815 million, highlighting local customer loyalty [7] - The Americas grew by 12% to €1.455 billion, driven by double-digit growth in the U.S. market [7] - The Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan) only saw a 3% increase, indicating challenges in the Chinese market [2][7] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Hermes' operating margin for the first half was 41.4%, a decline of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [8] - Currency fluctuations negatively impacted revenue by €77 million, reflecting the cost pressures faced by multinational luxury brands [10] - Ongoing investments in capacity expansion are expected to compress profit margins in the short term [10]

Group 1 - The US Dollar Index (DXY) has increased by 15 points, currently at 97.83 [1] - The Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) has decreased by 19 points [1] - The British Pound against the US Dollar (GBP/USD) has declined by 17 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices and U.S. Treasury indices, highlighting the performance of various markets and the impact of currency fluctuations on investment opportunities. Group 1: Market Performance - The global stock market experienced an overall increase this week, with the Asia-Pacific region leading the gains [4][5]. - The A-share market has risen for five consecutive weeks, with the CSI All Share Index increasing by over 2% this week [5]. - The Hong Kong stock market has also seen a rise of over 2% for two consecutive weeks [5]. - The U.S. and European markets also showed overall increases [6]. - The global stock market index has returned to a 3.0 star rating [7]. Group 2: Currency Impact - Renminbi-denominated assets have performed well globally this year, partly due to the appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar, which has risen by 3% since April [8][9]. - Historical trends indicate that bull markets in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks often coincide with periods of renminbi appreciation, such as the 2020-2021 bull market [10][16]. - The current dollar interest rate cut cycle, which began in September 2024, has led to a depreciation of the dollar, benefiting A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [18]. - Currency fluctuations are not a long-term influencing factor but can create short-term investment opportunities [19][21]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the limited options for such funds in mainland China [29]. - The company has launched a "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" that diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track global stock market performance [31]. - There are current purchase limits for mainland investors in overseas markets, with a maximum daily purchase of 350 yuan [33].

金十数据7月24日讯，荷兰国际集团分析师Chris Turner在报告中表示，若欧洲央行在周四会议上表露对 欧元近期升值的担忧，欧元可能走弱。他在报告中表示，部分欧洲央行成员已对欧元上涨公开发声，周 四可能涉及汇率评论。"毕竟欧洲央行一直关注通胀不及目标的问题，而本币走强确实会加剧这一状 况。"Turner称，考虑到特朗普对汇率操纵的敏感性，尚不清楚该行是否认为汇率评论可能影响美欧贸 易关系。 荷兰国际：欧央行若担忧欧元走强 汇率或应声下跌 ...