格隆汇12月29日丨新宝股份(002705.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司出口业务占比75%左右，主要以美元结 算。人民币短期内快速升值对公司出口业务会产生一定的影响。公司会持续关注宏观经济及汇率走势， 加强外汇风险管理，通过外汇衍生品对冲、择机安排结汇等措施来降低汇率波动风险。长期来看，公司 将通过核心竞争力的提升，不断提高公司产品的市场议价能力，保持持续稳健的经营。 ...

2023年的全球经济舞台，仿佛一出跌宕起伏的悬疑剧，而美国，无疑是聚光灯下最受瞩目的主角。当全世界都屏住呼吸，猜测高利率这把利剑是否会将美国 经济刺穿时，一份令人瞠目结舌的"王炸"成绩单横空出世，瞬间击碎了所有悲观论调。 当我们把目光转向东方，感受到的却是与大洋彼岸截然不同的经济温度。今年，中国经济同样交出了一份令人满意的答卷。前三季度5.2%的同比增长，在 全球主要经济体中堪称翘楚。但未能突破20万亿美元GDP总量的"一步之遥"，却让不少人心生遗憾。这不仅仅是一个数字，更是一个象征意义上的里程碑。 更有趣的是，我们所面临的挑战，与美国恰恰相反。他们为高企的物价、失控的通胀而焦头烂额，而我们却正经历着物价相对稳定的时期。超市里日用品价 格的稳定，电商平台促销的力度，都传递着一种"淡定"的信号。这种低通胀环境固然有利于提升民众的实际购买力，但从宏观经济角度而言，却在以美元计 价GDP时，让我们的增长显得不那么"壮实"。此消彼长，两国之间的差距也因此被微妙地拉大。 然而，在这场看似辉煌的经济"秀"背后，隐藏着怎样的玄机？作为一名对数字敏感的观察者，我更愿意将这份成绩单拆解开来，深入探究其真实成色。 先说那备受瞩目 ...

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is largely attributed to the weakening of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, rather than a strong performance of the RMB itself [1][4] - The RMB has appreciated approximately 4.5% to 6% since the beginning of the year, while the US dollar index has declined nearly 10%, indicating a relative weakness of the dollar [1][4] - The appreciation of the RMB has mixed implications for different sectors; it benefits importers and students studying abroad by reducing costs, while it poses challenges for export-oriented businesses facing reduced competitiveness [6][9] Group 2 - Export-oriented companies are experiencing pressure as the appreciation of the RMB makes their products more expensive in international markets, potentially leading to a loss of orders and profit margins [6][10] - The end-of-year "settlement tide" drives demand for RMB as export companies convert their dollar earnings into RMB for year-end payments, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [12][10] - Despite the RMB's appreciation against the dollar, it has depreciated against a basket of other currencies, which helps maintain price competitiveness for exports to regions like Europe and Japan [14][10] Group 3 - Market sentiment can amplify the RMB's appreciation, leading to self-reinforcing cycles of investment based on expectations of further appreciation, which could create volatility [15][16] - Financial authorities emphasize the importance of stability in the RMB exchange rate, implementing measures to prevent excessive fluctuations that could disrupt business operations and personal financial plans [15][16] - Experts recommend that businesses and individuals focus on their core operations and manage currency risk through financial instruments, rather than speculating on currency movements [18][19]

离岸人民币兑美元汇率一举升破7.0关口，创下2024年9月以来新高。这一变化不仅刷屏财经圈，更与每个普通人的钱包息息相关。人民币为何大幅升值？未 来走势如何？普通人该如何应对？一文说清！ 美元走弱成主因 美联储降息预期升温，美元指数跌破100，带动非美货币普遍升值。市场对2026年美联储继续降息的押注，进一步削弱美元吸引力。 中国经济韧性支撑 出口超预期增长、贸易顺差扩大至1万亿美元，叠加资本市场对国际资本的吸引力增强，为人民币提供基本面支撑。 年末结汇潮推波助澜 外贸企业年底集中将美元收入兑换成人民币，短期需求激增加速汇率上行。 1. 换汇成本大降，留学生家庭迎来利好 2. 美元存款"倒亏钱"，理财需谨慎 留学、旅游更省钱：当前换10万美元比6月节省约1.7万元，赴美留学、旅游开支显著降低。 海淘党狂喜：进口商品价格下降，电子产品、奢侈品性价比提升。 杭州张凯年初存8400美元，到期后人民币计价反亏1033元；购买美国国债的收益也被汇率波动吞噬。 建议：持有美元资产者可考虑分批换回人民币，或配置黄金、A股等对冲风险。 人民币购买力提升，核心城市房产、黄金等抗通胀资产可能吸引更多资金流入。 注意：央行强调"房 ...

转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •日本2026财年预算创新高 国债发行规模近30万亿日元 •埃及央行将基准利率下调100个基点，隔夜贷款和存款利率分别调整为21%和20%，以应对高通胀压力 缓和后的政策调整需求。 •乌克兰总统泽连斯基25日透露，已与美国总统特朗普特使威特科夫及库什纳通电话，就未来会晤安排 和加速推进"真正和平"进程交换意见。 【全球市场动态】 •日本央行行长：利率仍有上调空间 •韩国央行保持降息选项开放 警惕汇率与楼市风险 •埃及央行大幅降息100基点 贷款利率降至21% 【市场资讯】 •日本首相高市早苗公布2026财年初始预算案，总额达122.3万亿日元，同比增长6.3%，刷新历史纪录。 为填补财政缺口，政府计划发行约29.6万亿日元国债。 •日本央行行长植田和男表示，随着实现可持续通胀目标的信心增强，若经济展望如期兑现，央行有意 进一步加息，并指出当前实际利率仍处低位。 •日本政府将2025财年GDP增长预期从0.7%上调至1.1%，并预计2026财年经济增速将进一步提升至 1.3%，反映出对经济复苏势头的乐观判断。 •韩国央行在2026年货币政策声明中表示，不排除进一步降息可能，同时强调 ...

Group 1: Currency and Economic Outlook - The offshore RMB appreciation is increasing the attractiveness of the domestic capital market to foreign investment, but companies are advised not to bet on a one-sided currency trend and to utilize foreign exchange derivatives to manage risks [1] - The Russian Ruble has appreciated by 45% this year, reaching approximately 78 Rubles per USD, which poses new risks to the Russian economy as it undermines its competitive edge as an energy powerhouse [2] - Canada's GDP fell by 0.3% in October, with only a slight expected recovery of 0.1% in November, indicating a need for further monetary support through interest rate cuts [3] Group 2: Interest Rate Projections - BlackRock analysts predict that the Federal Reserve will implement limited interest rate cuts in 2026, with the current cycle having already seen a reduction of 175 basis points [1] - Galaxy Securities notes that there is still room for about three interest rate cuts in the U.S. in 2026, despite the marginal weakening of employment trends [2] - The Bank of Korea is keeping the option for further rate cuts open while remaining vigilant about financial stability risks due to a weak Korean Won and rising housing prices [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Inflation Expectations - Japan's two-year government bond auction saw demand fall below the 12-month average, indicating market speculation about the need for larger interest rate hikes to control inflation [4] - The yield on Japan's two-year bonds has reached its highest level since 1996, reflecting heightened inflation expectations as measured by the 10-year breakeven inflation rate, which is at its highest since 2004 [4]

"市场对日本央行的政策走向仍存诸多疑虑，"三井住友信托资产管理公司资深策略师Katsutoshi Inadome 表示，"这种不确定性或导致投资者对两年期国债持回避态度，毕竟该期限品种受政策变动风险的影响 最为直接。" 对货币政策预期更为敏感的两年期国债收益率，本周早些时候一度攀升至1996年以来的最高水平。与此 同时，反映市场未来通胀预期的关键指标——十年期盈亏平衡通胀率，也在周一升至2004年有数据记录 以来的峰值。 日本两年期国债拍卖需求疲弱，推动该期限国债收益率走高。市场猜测，日本央行或需加大加息力度以 抑制通胀、提振日元汇率。 作为衡量需求的核心指标，本次两年期国债拍卖的投标倍数录得3.26，低于上一期的3.53，也低于12个 月均值3.65。受此影响，两年期国债收益率上行1个基点，报1.11%。此外，十年期国债期货高开后回落 走低。 此次拍卖举行不到一周前，日本央行刚刚将政策利率上调至三十年来的最高水平。行长植田和男在加息 后的讲话中，并未就未来利率路径给出明确指引，此举拖累日元汇率走弱，同时推动国债收益率大幅攀 升。 不过，日本财务大臣片山皋月警告称，对于不符合经济基本面的汇率波动，日本政府"有 ...

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）人民币对美元汇率持续走高，对出口企业的汇兑收益造成影响。记者今 天（24日）走访了解到，不少出口企业正积极应对，一方面加快结汇，以应对汇率短期波动；另一方面 采取优化结算方式等措施来降低影响。 除了及时结汇，不少企业也通过跨境人民币结算、提升自身核心竞争力等方式，增强自身在汇率波动中 的韧性。 江苏南通的一家蛋业企业，目前向欧洲市场出口蛋黄粉产品。在企业的生产车间里一片忙碌景象，负责 人介绍，这批货物都是出口欧洲，四季度以来已经陆续出口各类蛋粉近100吨，期间收美元外汇约70 万，今天下午还完成了一笔结汇。 江苏南通某蛋业有限公司董事长 王文根：企业现在收到每笔外汇后都及时结汇。今天刚到了一笔外 汇，也是实时结算。总的来说，影响已经达到一个点左右，及时结汇有效减少了损失。 浙江海宁某外贸企业负责人 梁奕一：跨境人民币、美元、欧元三者相结合的。对于美元的汇率风险来 讲，我们主要是通过预判，做一些汇率锁定。 江苏南通某蛋业有限公司董事长 王文根：我们在优化贸易结算方式，同时调整经营策略、提升企业核 心竞争力。通过技术升级、品牌建设或产品多元化，减少对价格竞争的依赖，增强在汇率波动中的韧 ...

Group 1 - The British pound stabilized around 1.3405 against the US dollar after a three-day decline, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish factors [1] - The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point rate cut to 3.75%, marking the lowest level in nearly three years, with a 5:4 voting result [1] - The Bank of England's decision reflects a cautious approach, emphasizing data dependency for future rate changes, suggesting the current easing cycle may be nearing its end [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the UK Q3 GDP data release, with investors reducing directional bets to avoid volatility [2] - Technical analysis shows the GBP/USD pair has established support around 1.3300, with resistance levels between 1.3420 and 1.3450 [2] - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve is expected to be a key driver for the exchange rate in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently at 1.3676, reflecting a narrow fluctuation pattern driven by the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Canada, alongside factors such as international oil price volatility, economic fundamentals, and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Bank of Canada has completed four rate cuts totaling 100 basis points this year and maintained the overnight rate at 2.25% on December 10, indicating a neutral to hawkish stance that has led to market expectations of a rate hike in 2026 [1]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has implemented its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the key interest rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, with internal dissent highlighting significant policy divergence within the Fed [2]. - The contrasting monetary policies of the two central banks are a primary driver of the ongoing pressure on the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - Canada's economy showed resilience with a 2.6% annualized GDP growth in Q3, reversing previous contractions, and a drop in the unemployment rate to 6.5%, the lowest in nearly 16 months [1]. - The Canadian dollar, as a commodity currency, is influenced by oil prices, which have declined by 15.2% since 2025, impacting Canada's oil export revenues and providing some support for the USD/CAD exchange rate [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - The USD/CAD exchange rate is currently characterized by bearish dominance but with slowing momentum, as indicated by technical indicators [3]. - Short-term price fluctuations are expected to remain within the range of 1.3740-1.3830, with key support at 1.3720-1.3680 and resistance at 1.3830 and 1.3890 [3]. - Some institutions are beginning to adopt a bullish outlook on the Canadian dollar, anticipating it could rise to 77 cents against the USD by 2026 due to factors such as narrowing interest rate differentials and enhanced economic resilience [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/CAD exchange rate will depend on multiple factors, including guidance from the Bank of Canada on interest rate hikes, core inflation data, and statements from Federal Reserve officials [3]. - Additionally, OPEC+ production policies, international oil price trends, and developments in US-Canada trade negotiations will be critical variables influencing the exchange rate [3]. - The ongoing divergence in monetary policies, oil price recovery, and the pace of Canada's economic recovery will determine the long-term direction of the exchange rate [3].