Group 1 - The establishment of Henan Zhongyu Port Tong Capital Investment Co., Ltd. and its subsidiary, Henan Zhongyu Port Tong (Private) Fund Management Co., Ltd., marks a significant development in the investment sector in Henan province [1] - As of June 30, the bond custody scale reached 48.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 126 billion yuan of 7-year government bonds with a fixed interest rate of 1.79% [3] Group 2 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will implement a multinational corporate fund pool management policy nationwide and conduct pilot programs for green foreign debt policies [4] - The People's Bank of China reported a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan through MLF and 200 billion yuan through reverse repos in July [6] - Beijing's government is supporting financial institutions in innovating financial products to create a "stock-loan-bond insurance" linkage financial support system [6] Group 3 - Hainan province plans to issue local government bonds in Hong Kong and has formed an underwriting team for this purpose [8] - Three companies in Henan have been approved to register debt financing tools totaling 11.5 billion yuan [9][10] - Kaifeng Economic and Technological Development Group is set to issue 400 million yuan in short-term financing bonds with a subscription range of 1.50% to 2.50% [11] Group 4 - Zhongyuan Securities has been approved to issue company bonds totaling 2.5 billion yuan [12] - Shangqiu New City Construction Investment Group successfully issued 600 million yuan in company bonds with an interest rate of 2.92% [13] - Zhao Liang has been elected as the chairman of China Investment Guarantee Co., Ltd. [14]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy conference held by Ping An Fund highlighted the importance of embracing interest-bearing assets and participating in wave trading for the second half of 2025, while closely monitoring policy changes and economic data for effective risk management [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, but the internal momentum remains relatively weak. Real estate investment continues to drag, manufacturing investment is weak, and infrastructure investment, while gaining traction, is limited in strength. Consumer spending has rebounded with policy support, but overall growth still needs improvement [1]. - Exports are stable overall, but the growth rate is subject to significant fluctuations. Inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI are weak, reflecting insufficient total demand and low capacity utilization, resulting in limited inflationary pressure [1]. Monetary Policy and Market Environment - The central bank's goals have not yet adjusted, with maintaining growth and structural adjustments as primary objectives. Following the recent cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, the cost of funds has effectively decreased, and weak credit may lead to continued monetary easing. Additionally, a reduction in deposit rates is anticipated to maintain bank interest margins [1][2]. - The bond market is currently in a favorable environment characterized by stable but weak fundamentals and a prudent monetary policy. The stability of the credit assets in the medium to short term can provide reliable interest income and arbitrage value [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities during market adjustments to accumulate interest income. The long-term assets, while stable, are unlikely to exceed expectations, and external demand pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year due to export effects [2]. - Active participation in wave trading is recommended, as each market panic adjustment may present gaming value for investors [2].

Core Insights - The article narrates the trading journey of Mr. Zhang, who transitioned from a stable job in aluminum trading to the volatile futures market, facing multiple setbacks before achieving consistent profitability [1][3][4]. Trading Journey - Mr. Zhang began trading in 2005, initially facing significant challenges, including four account liquidations over seven years, resulting in total losses of 200,000 yuan [3][4]. - In 2012, he restarted with a 50,000 yuan capital and gradually established a profitable trading strategy, achieving a remarkable 485% profit in 2015 [4][5]. Key to Sustained Profitability - Mr. Zhang emphasizes the importance of patience and risk management, suggesting that traders should minimize losses during sideways markets and maximize gains during trending markets [5][6]. - He believes that taking breaks after losses is crucial for maintaining a healthy mindset and improving trading performance [5][6]. Trading Methodology - Mr. Zhang advocates for focusing on a few specific trading instruments, primarily in sectors like non-ferrous metals, stock indices, and agricultural products, to enhance expertise and risk management [9]. - He employs a strategy of entering trades at optimal points where the risk-reward ratio is favorable, often using technical indicators to identify these points [9][10]. Position Management - His trading approach includes a four-step process: trial position, building position, adding to position, and exiting [11][12]. - He highlights the significance of adjusting position sizes based on market conditions and personal risk tolerance, especially during periods of volatility [11][12]. Reflections and Learning - Mr. Zhang regularly reviews his trading performance to identify strengths and weaknesses, reinforcing the idea that continuous learning and adaptation are vital for success in trading [13][14]. - He stresses the importance of finding a trading style that aligns with one's personality and strengths, advocating for specialization rather than attempting to master all trading techniques [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article promotes an upcoming live debate event titled "Tortoise and Hare Debate" organized by Tian Tian Fund and Huitianfu Fund, focusing on different investment strategies: long-term holding versus momentum trading [1][2]. Summary by Sections Event Details - The event features two representatives from Tian Tian Fund and two opinion leaders, divided into two camps: the "Wise Tortoise" advocating for long-term investment and compounding, and the "Agile Hare" favoring short-term trading and momentum [1][3]. Program Highlights - The event includes various segments such as a guessing game about indices, a debate on whether investment should be fast or slow, AI asset diagnostics, and a discussion on the choice between AI advisory and professional advisory services [3]. Engagement and Promotion - The article encourages readers to reserve their spots for the live event scheduled for May 28 at 14:00, promising more surprises during the broadcast [2].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with expectations for liquidity driven by recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but the sentiment remains limited [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bond market showed a fluctuating trend from May 19 to May 25, with adjustments in interest rate bonds and a slight compression in credit spreads [3]. - The average yield of medium to long-term pure bond funds was 0.08%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average yield of 0.05% [6]. - Major bond funds have seen significant fundraising activity, with 48 out of 85 newly established bond funds raising over 1 billion yuan, and 12 funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining duration allocation while increasing the proportion of swing trading due to the current market conditions [5][6]. - The market is focused on upcoming economic data, supply pressures, and changes in liquidity, but lacks factors that could lead to a trend-driven market [5]. - Following the recent interest rate cuts, there is an expectation that the central bank will continue to support liquidity, reducing concerns about significant increases in funding costs [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the bond market is difficult to break out of the shock range. After the deposit rate cut, the pressure on the bank's liability side has increased, and large - banks' capital lending is still scarce. The flow of deposits to non - bank institutions is beneficial to the bond market. The main concerns of the bond market are economic data such as May PMI, supply pressure, and the tightness of the capital side. However, it is difficult to have unexpected factors or trend - type market conditions. Investors should maintain the duration and increase the weight of band trading in the environment of low coupon and expensive funds [2]. - The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral to bullish. The sentiment in the Treasury futures market has increased significantly, and there is a positive arbitrage opportunity. Sellers' view is that the interest - rate cut is difficult to boost bond - market sentiment, and the bulls are further loosening, with more than 60% holding a neutral view. Buyers' view is that the proportion of institutions seeing a shock in the market has also increased [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted tracking index this week is 0.19, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.01 from last week. The unweighted tracking index is 0.28, remaining unchanged from last week. Currently, 30% of institutions are bullish, 63% are neutral, and 7% are bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The tracking sentiment index this week is 0.23, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.05 from last week. Currently, 35% of institutions are bullish, 62% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - topics are deposit rate cuts and science - and - technology bond support policies. Deposit rate cuts may cause deposit transfers and benefit short - and medium - term credit bonds. The science - and - technology bond support policy promotes issuance and improves liquidity [18]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 27% of institutions are bullish, and 73% are neutral [19]. 3.2 Treasury Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have risen across the board. As of May 23, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.41 yuan, 106.05 yuan, 108.85 yuan, and 119.60 yuan respectively, up 0.03 yuan, 0.33 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.69 yuan from last Friday. - Treasury futures' open interest has increased across the board. As of May 23, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 101,000 lots, 119,000 lots, 164,000 lots, and 89,000 lots respectively, with an increase of 17,269 lots, 39,584 lots, 64,352 lots, and 38,747 lots from last Friday. - Treasury futures' trading volume has decreased across the board. As of May 23, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 100.7 billion yuan, 77.3 billion yuan, 108.6 billion yuan, and 112.3 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 32.2 billion yuan, 21.2 billion yuan, 22.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury futures has decreased across the board. As of May 23, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading - to - open - interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 0.53, 0.80, 0.86, and 1.78 respectively, down 0.48, 0.17, 0.17, and 0.80 from last Friday [24][25]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has increased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 2.63%, up 0.31 percentage points from last week and from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 2.50%. - The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 0.84%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.16 percentage points from Monday. - The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has decreased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 5.09%, down 0.71 percentage points from last week and 1.15 percentage points from Monday [36][38]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis, the basis of the T main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 23, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are - 0.10 yuan, + 0.21 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, and + 0.46 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.03 yuan, + 0.16 yuan, - 0.18 yuan, and + 0.29 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of main contracts has widened. As of May 23, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are - 0.10 yuan, - 0.14 yuan, - 0.07 yuan, and - 0.04 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.05 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, - 0.09 yuan, and - 0.07 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of main contracts has increased. As of May 23, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are 1.90%, 2.00%, 1.82%, 1.67% respectively, up 0.11%, 0.69%, 0.36%, 0.29% from last Friday. The basis of the TS main contract is negative this week, and the weekly average of IRR is 1.82%, at a relatively high level. With the overall phased relaxation of the capital side this week, the weekly average of DR007 is 1.58%. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [43][46]. 3.2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spreads of main futures contracts have widened. As of May 23, the spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts (near - month - far - month) are - 0.16 yuan, - 0.30 yuan, - 0.28 yuan, - 0.68 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.05 yuan, - 0.10 yuan, - 0.11 yuan, - 0.34 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of inter - variety spread, the spreads of 2*TF - T and 3*T - TL contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 23, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, 3*T - TL are 98.76 yuan, 103.24 yuan, 300.75 yuan, 206.97 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.28 yuan, + 0.31 yuan, - 0.26 yuan, + 0.47 yuan from last Friday. Currently, the downward space of long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be a downward opportunity for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable gaming space in short - term Treasury futures. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [53].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the decline in government bond futures across various maturities, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment and liquidity conditions [2] - As of May 22, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has seen a recent average daily trading volume of 25.59 billion yuan over the past month, reflecting active market participation [2] - The liquidity environment is described as abundant, with monetary market rates dropping to around the policy rate of 1.40%, suggesting a supportive backdrop for bond investments [2] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has a current scale of 6.758 billion yuan, with a recent net inflow of 2.013 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [3] - Over the past five trading days, the ETF has experienced net inflows on four occasions, totaling 6.246 million yuan, with an average daily net inflow of 1.249 million yuan [3] - The ETF has achieved a one-year net value increase of 15.29%, ranking 3rd out of 378 index bond funds, placing it in the top 0.79% [4] Group 3 - The ETF has demonstrated a maximum monthly return of 5.35% since its inception, with a historical one-year profit probability of 100% [4] - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05%, indicating a relatively low cost structure for investors [4] - The tracking error for the ETF over the past year is reported at 0.071%, showcasing its effectiveness in mirroring the underlying index [4]

Group 1 - The article provides a step-by-step guide for selecting currency pairs based on different trading styles, emphasizing the need for alignment between trading style and currency characteristics [1][2][5]. - Day trading is characterized by short holding periods, relying on technical analysis for small profit margins, with recommended pairs including EUR/USD and USD/JPY due to their high liquidity and low spreads [2][4]. - Swing trading focuses on capturing medium-term trends over days to weeks, with suitable pairs like AUD/USD and GBP/USD driven by fundamental factors such as commodity prices and policy expectations [5][7][8]. Group 2 - Carry trade involves long-term positions to earn interest rate differentials, favoring high-yield currencies while managing exchange rate risks [12][15]. - Event-driven trading capitalizes on market reactions to economic data releases, with pairs like USD/JPY and USD/TRY being highlighted for their volatility during such events [4][22]. - Algorithmic trading strategies include statistical arbitrage, monitoring price discrepancies between currency pairs, and utilizing low-latency execution for optimal performance [14][15][26]. Group 3 - The article outlines a five-step self-assessment method for traders to evaluate their risk tolerance, time commitment, and tool compatibility when selecting currency pairs [17][19][21]. - Recommended currency pairs for different trading styles include EUR/USD and XAU/USD for day trading, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for swing trading, and AUD/JPY and USD/ZAR for carry trading, each with specific risk management parameters [21][22][23]. - Common pitfalls for novice traders include mismatching trading styles with currency pairs, overlooking overnight costs, and overtrading less liquid pairs [24][25][26].

Core Insights - The article focuses on the trading success story of Kristjan Kullamägi, a Swedish trader who turned $9,100 into over $80 million from 2013 to 2021 through effective swing trading techniques [2][30] - It aims to delve deeper into Kullamägi's specific trading strategies, which many readers expressed interest in after the initial article [2] Trading Journey - Kullamägi began his trading career in 2011 as a day trader and experienced multiple account blow-ups in his early years, a common path for many new traders [3] - He transitioned from low time-frame trading to higher time-frame trading, discovering that longer holding periods provided more opportunities [3] Position Control and Risk Management - Kullamägi's strategy dictates that no single overnight position should exceed 30% of the account, with typical trade sizes around 10%-20% of the account [4] - He manages risk by limiting each trade's risk to 0.25%-1% of the total account value, adjusting his risk strategy as his account size grows [5] Swing Trading Strategy - Kullamägi's swing trading approach combines technical analysis, market psychology, and disciplined execution, allowing traders to profit from short to medium-term market fluctuations [6] - The core of his strategy involves identifying market trends and momentum, utilizing technical indicators, earnings seasons, and significant market events [6] Stock Selection Methodology - Relative strength is the primary criterion for stock selection, focusing on stocks that have shown strong performance over one, three, and six-month periods [6][7] - Kullamägi builds a watchlist of stocks with high relative strength, looking for specific patterns like the High Tight Flag, which indicates potential explosive growth [7] Breakout Opportunities - Identifying breakout opportunities is crucial, whether from a downtrend line or a High Tight Flag pattern, signaling continued upward momentum [8][11] - Kullamägi emphasizes the importance of volume during breakouts, as increased volume indicates market confidence in the stock's upward trend [11] Key Trading Patterns - The High Tight Flag breakout is a cornerstone of Kullamägi's strategy, predicting significant price movements after a rapid rise followed by a tight consolidation phase [9][12] - He advises traders to look for stocks that have risen 30% or more in the past 30 to 90 days and are currently in a consolidation phase [13][15] Execution and Risk Management - Kullamägi's entry strategy involves buying at the breakout point, using 1-minute or 5-minute candlestick charts for precise entry [16][24] - Risk management is critical, with stop-loss orders set below the day's low or within the average true range (ATR) to protect against significant losses [18][25] Episodic Pivot Strategy - The Episodic Pivot (EP) strategy focuses on stocks that experience significant price jumps due to positive news, which can lead to sustained upward trends [21] - Kullamägi identifies EP opportunities by looking for stocks that gap up over 10% at the open with high volume, confirming strong fundamental reasons behind the move [22] Market Dynamics and Short Selling - In extreme markets, Kullamägi targets rapidly rising stocks for potential short-selling opportunities, looking for signs of momentum exhaustion [28][29] - He waits for clear reversal signals before initiating short positions, ensuring alignment with market momentum changes [29] Conclusion - Kullamägi's trading strategies emphasize the importance of precise entry points, market catalysts, and disciplined risk management [40] - The article aims to provide traders with insights into effectively applying these strategies in real trading scenarios, enhancing their ability to identify and capitalize on market opportunities [40]

我们也不要自认为聪明，凭着感觉想做个先卖后买的波段交易。想法是好的，但是如果你真这样做了，先卖出做空，欲等待调整后再上车，但是，你卖出 后的心态是会改变的，尤其是逆大势大概率踏空之后，就会在懊悔中难以再上车，于是踏空后面更大的行情。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241217— 中美关系或是2025最大预期差（+股市弱势-资金面偏紧转松=微上)】 资金面偏紧转松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行今日公开市场开展3554亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.50%。今日1416亿元逆回购到期。净投放2138亿元。 上午资金面偏紧张，午后逐渐转松，资金利率仍偏贵。 俄罗斯国家杜马表示：支持在俄全国推广食品券制度。哎，这战打的，把"粮票"都打出来了，这是要和朝鲜并轨的节奏的啊。 今天看到特朗普表示"美中联手可以解决世界上所有问题"，新华社对此都做了报道。考虑到老特的思维更偏商人而非政客，意识形态的东西也不多，2025 年基本面的预期差没准儿真能来自于中美关系，等到明年这个时候再一看，"大力提振"的足球、消费、投资继续拉胯，而"无人看好"的出口再超预期，大 家纷纷感叹"一致预期都是错的"，这剧本如何？ 真心希望地球的各位大佬 ...