Group 1 - The current trading price of paper gold is around 855.12 yuan per gram, with a slight decline of 0.31% [1] - The highest price reached was 859.96 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 852.21 yuan per gram, indicating a short-term bearish trend [1] - The key resistance level for paper gold is identified between 860 yuan per gram and 870 yuan per gram, while the important support level is between 830 yuan per gram and 850 yuan per gram [3] Group 2 - Stephen Milan, a new Federal Reserve governor, proposed aggressive interest rate cuts, supporting Trump’s policies, but faced skepticism from the market [2] - The market's skepticism stems from perceived flaws in Milan's theoretical foundations, particularly regarding the potential effects of Trump's policies on labor supply and inflation [2] - The current economic indicators, such as a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3, suggest resilience in the economy, contradicting the need for aggressive rate cuts [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is experiencing significant internal divisions regarding its monetary policy path, influenced by President Trump's ongoing pressure and uncertainties in trade and immigration policies [1][2] - The Fed recently initiated its first rate cut of the year, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.0%–4.25%, with support from most policymakers [1][6] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly supports the rate cut, citing signs of economic slowdown, consumer spending, and labor market weakening, emphasizing the need for further policy adjustments to stabilize prices and support the labor market [1][6] Group 2 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed a cautious stance, supporting the recent rate cut but warning against hasty further cuts, noting persistent inflation above the 2% target for four and a half years [1][2] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticized Fed Chair Powell for not signaling further rate cuts, suggesting a need for a reduction of 100 to 150 basis points by year-end [2] - New Fed Governor Stephen Miran, nominated by Trump, advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [2][3] Group 3 - Miran's policy stance has garnered attention, proposing that the Trump administration's policies should lead to a significant decrease in the neutral real interest rate, advocating for a further rate cut to around 2.5% [3] - Concerns were raised regarding the assumptions underlying Miran's proposals, including potential labor shortages and inflationary pressures from immigration restrictions and tariffs [3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a strong economic growth rate exceeding 3% by Q3 2025, suggesting reduced urgency for significant rate cuts [3][4] Group 4 - A joint survey by the Atlanta Fed, Richmond Fed, and Duke University indicates that while trade policy uncertainty has decreased, expectations for costs and prices are rising for 2026 [4] - The survey revealed that tariffs have increased planned price hikes by up to 30%, continuing to suppress some investment decisions among businesses [5] - Powell noted that short-term inflation risks are skewed upward while employment risks are skewed downward, highlighting the complex interplay of inflation, employment, and political pressures facing the Fed [5][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points marks its first rate cut in 2025, which has been anticipated by global financial markets, resulting in a relatively stable market reaction [1][2] - China's central bank has emphasized a supportive monetary policy stance, focusing on optimizing monetary systems and tools to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, thereby promoting funds circulation and value creation [1][2] - The global financial market's response to the Fed's rate cut has been mixed, with significant volatility observed in cryptocurrency markets, while major stock markets remain driven by technical and bond market factors [2][3] Group 2 - The impact of the Fed's rate cut is expected to differ in the short and medium to long term, with potential risks arising from a prolonged period of low rates that could lead to a weaker dollar and affect global capital flows [3][4] - China is advised to manage various relationships, including balancing monetary policy with forward guidance, promoting trade and investment growth while pursuing financial openness, and enhancing domestic and international market integration [4][7] - The internationalization of the renminbi is seen as a strategic opportunity for China to mitigate the impacts of the Fed's rate cut, allowing for more effective monetary policy adjustments and support for the real economy [7][8] Group 3 - The construction of a unified national market and the promotion of a dual circulation strategy are crucial for enhancing domestic consumption and investment, which can help stabilize the renminbi and reduce the impact of fluctuations in the dollar [8][9] - The relationship between credit precision and liquidity injection into capital markets is highlighted, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to support both the financial system and the real economy [10][11] - The overall focus is on how to leverage the Fed's rate cut to enhance China's economic resilience and improve resource allocation efficiency through targeted monetary policies [11]

Core Viewpoint - The article questions the rationale provided by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran for advocating significant interest rate cuts, suggesting that if his views are accepted, it would imply that the Federal Reserve, investors, and independent economists are all incorrect [2]. Group 1: Miran's Arguments - Miran supports a reduction of interest rates from the current 4%-4.25% range to approximately 2.5%, citing the impact of Trump's policy changes, including reduced immigration, lower government borrowing, and deregulation, which he believes should lead to lower long-term rates [2][3]. - He estimates that the "neutral real long-term interest rate" has decreased by over 1 percentage point due to these policy changes, predicting a potential 10% increase in the price of 10-year TIPS if yields drop to his estimated levels [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's assumptions hold, significant adjustments in market pricing would be necessary, leading to a weaker dollar and favorable conditions for the stock market, despite concerns about high stock prices [3]. - The combination of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is expected to benefit the stock market, suggesting that it could rise even further if Miran's views are validated [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Context - The article highlights potential downsides to Miran's proposed policy changes, such as labor shortages and rising wages due to immigration restrictions, which could increase inflation [4][5]. - It also points out that the effectiveness of deregulation is unpredictable and that Miran's reliance on the Taylor Rule may not fully account for current economic conditions, as other metrics suggest a higher recommended interest rate range [5]. - Current economic indicators, including a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3 and strong market performance, challenge the necessity for further rate cuts, indicating that the economic landscape is more robust than Miran suggests [6][7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% amid signs of economic slowdown and a weakening labor market [1][2][5] - Inflation remains above the target of 2%, with the August CPI rising by 2.9% year-on-year and core CPI increasing by 3.1% [2] - The labor market shows significant weakness, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past 12 months and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2][5] Group 2 - The Taylor rule, which has guided monetary policy since the 1990s, is losing its effectiveness, as recent economic conditions have led to deviations from its recommendations [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's credibility is crucial for its ability to deviate from the Taylor rule, allowing for more flexible monetary policy in response to supply shocks and inflation [4][5] - Future monetary policy is expected to focus more on the labor market, with potential for accelerated rate cuts due to ongoing fiscal pressures and government interventions [5] Group 3 - The structural rise in neutral interest rates may limit the scope for aggressive monetary easing, as excessive loosening could undermine the Fed's credibility and reignite inflation [5] - A stable inflation target of 3%-4% could lead to gradual improvements in the labor market, supporting a continued path of interest rate cuts [5] - The anticipated easing of monetary policy may accelerate the repricing of global assets, benefiting physical assets and precious metals, while potentially leading to capital flows favoring emerging markets [5]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which is seen as a consensus decision among policymakers [2][10] - Current economic indicators suggest strong growth, with a GDP growth rate of 3.3% for the second quarter and retail sales up 6% year-over-year [6][15] - There are mixed signals regarding inflation, with current rates around 2.9%, which is above the Fed's target of 2% [5][10] Monetary Policy - The Fed's approach to monetary policy is described as cautious and data-dependent, with a focus on balancing growth and inflation [10][12] - There is a debate among Fed officials regarding the appropriate level of interest rate cuts, with some advocating for more aggressive cuts [10][11] - The Phillips Curve is mentioned as a flawed model for understanding the relationship between unemployment and inflation, suggesting a need for diverse economic models [9][10] Income Inequality - The discussion highlights a widening gap between the wealthy and low-income consumers, with concerns about the distribution of economic growth [13][14] - Despite income inequality, there has been notable growth in retail sales, indicating optimism among lower-income consumers [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is characterized as a "risk management-style cut," which appears somewhat "awkward" due to the contrast between economic forecasts and the rate cut path [1][2]. Economic Forecasts and Rate Path - The FOMC raised GDP growth expectations for 2025-2027, with 2025 and 2026 projected at 1.6% and 1.8% respectively, while lowering unemployment rate forecasts for 2026-2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% [2]. - Despite a more optimistic economic outlook, the rate path indicated a reduction of 25 basis points compared to June predictions, with a median forecast suggesting three rate cuts this year to 3.6% [2]. Employment Market Concerns - The decision for a more accommodative policy is primarily driven by significant deterioration in the employment market, with average job growth over the last three months at only 29,000, down from 99,000 [3]. - The FOMC shows major internal disagreements regarding the policy path, with six members favoring only one rate cut this year, while two support two cuts [3]. Powell's Hawkish Stance - Despite the dovish signals from the dot plot, Powell adopted a hawkish tone, downplaying the significance of the dot plot and emphasizing that it reflects individual forecasts rather than a predetermined policy path [4]. Inflation Concerns - Powell noted an increase in commodity price inflation, likely reflecting tariff impacts, and emphasized the FOMC's responsibility to prevent temporary price increases from evolving into persistent inflation issues [5]. Barclays' Expectations - Barclays maintains its baseline expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points in October and December, primarily due to ongoing weak job growth and rising unemployment [6]. - For 2026, Barclays anticipates a pause in rate cuts until signs of easing monthly inflation data are observed, with further cuts expected in March and June [6].

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% on September 18, 2025[1] - Despite inflation not returning to the 2% target, the rate cut was deemed necessary due to slowing economic growth and a weakening labor market[2] - The labor market showed signs of fatigue, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past 12 months, resulting in an average monthly addition of only 70,000 jobs[2] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% year-on-year in August, while core CPI increased by 3.1%[2] - The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a significant weakening in the labor market[2] - Current inflationary pressures are primarily attributed to supply-side shocks from tariffs rather than overheating demand[2] Future Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate cuts, with a total of 75 basis points anticipated by the end of 2025[1][7] - The focus of monetary policy may shift further towards the labor market, especially in light of expanding fiscal deficits and increased government intervention[7] - A cautious approach is necessary to avoid excessive loosening that could undermine the Fed's credibility and reignite inflation risks[7]

Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as expected[2] - The median dot plot indicates a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year[2] - The analysis suggests that the Fed may have approximately 70 basis points of additional rate cut space based on the Taylor rule[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[2] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 remains at 3.0%, while the 2026 forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027[2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The FOMC statement reflects concerns about the labor market, noting a slowdown in job gains and an increase in the unemployment rate[2] - The report highlights upward pressure on inflation due to rising retail prices and inventory levels[3][8] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, asset prices exhibited volatility, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.55%[3] - The market's initial expectations of a 50 basis point cut were tempered by Powell's comments, leading to a reversal in asset price movements[3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has initiated its first interest rate cut of 2025, lowering the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, driven by economic slowdown and a weakening labor market, despite inflation not yet reaching the 2% target [1][2][3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The focus of the Federal Reserve's policy may shift further towards the labor market in Q4 2025, with a potential acceleration in the pace of rate cuts due to expanding fiscal deficits and increased political intervention [2][6] - A total of 75 basis points in rate cuts is anticipated throughout 2025, with the Fed maintaining a gradual and cautious approach to avoid overly aggressive easing that could destabilize inflation expectations [2][6] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market shows signs of significant weakness, with a downward revision of 911,000 jobs added over the past year, resulting in an average monthly addition of only 70,000 jobs, far below the previously estimated 147,000 [3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, indicating reduced hiring intentions and insufficient job growth momentum [3] Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy - The Taylor Rule, historically a key guideline for monetary policy, has become less effective, as evidenced by the Fed's deviation from its recommendations during economic crises [4][5] - In the current context, a weaker response to inflation may be more appropriate, as strict adherence to the Taylor Rule could exacerbate economic downturn risks [4][5] Central Bank Credibility - The credibility of the central bank is crucial for its ability to deviate from the Taylor Rule, as a central bank with strong credibility can better manage supply shocks and achieve a balance between price stability and growth [5][6] - The Fed's long-standing credibility allows for potential rate cuts even when inflation remains elevated, as maintaining high rates could lead to increased economic downturn risks [5][6] Global Asset Repricing - The continuation of rate cuts by the Fed is expected to accelerate the global asset repricing process, benefiting physical assets and precious metals such as energy, metals, real estate, and gold [6] - A weaker dollar may lead to accelerated capital flows, providing relative advantages to emerging markets benefiting from manufacturing shifts and resource exports [6]