工业金属的三连击 20251221 摘要 流动性充裕预期增强，央行购金及 ETF 持仓上升支撑金价，美国降息预 期及美元走弱亦构成利好，白银、铂、钯等贵金属有望维持强势，库存 扰动致白银价格突破 66 美元。 锂价受供应端扰动影响，江西矿山复产进度不确定性支撑锂价，若快速 复产则价格或将下降，镍市受印尼政策变动预期影响，供给端或收缩， 钴市因上游供给扰动及下游需求旺盛表现偏强。 钢铁行业龙头公司调整充分，进入布局期，有望迎来主升浪，当前配置 钢铁股票潜力较高，中国可能限制低端钢材出口，预计明年矿石价格可 能下跌，对钢铁行业形成利好。 铜价受海外宏观因素波动震荡，但降息预期及流动性宽松预期增强，加 之圣诞节季节性因素影响，有望维持强势，长期来看，精炼铜供应紧张 局面将加剧，预计铜价将稳定偏强运行。 锡价受刚果（金）局势及缅甸锡矿复产影响表现强势，但高锡价抑制需 求，国内外库存增加，对后续价格形成压力，长期来看，新增项目放量 有限且需求稳健增长，锡价重心将持续上移。 Q&A 近期金属板块的表现如何？未来的趋势是什么？ 近期库存变化和去库存速度如何，对市场价格有何影响？ 上周库存下降了约 1,400 吨，相较前一周 ...

Group 1 - The central bank announced a 10 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation on December 5, with a term of 3 months, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - There is an expectation of a 6-month reverse repurchase operation later in December to address potential liquidity tightening, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [1][2] - The central bank has established a pattern of conducting various liquidity operations, including 3-month and 6-month reverse repos, to ensure a stable liquidity environment, especially towards year-end [1][2] Group 2 - December will see a high level of government bond issuance and the highest volume of bank interbank certificates maturing this year, which may tighten liquidity [2] - The overall maturity pressure in December is manageable, with 3,000 billion yuan of MLF and 4,000 billion yuan of 6-month reverse repos maturing [2] - The central bank is expected to maintain a reasonably ample liquidity environment through various operations, focusing on a balanced approach to quantity and price [2]

Group 1 - The central bank of China announced a reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - The operation will involve a fixed amount of 1 trillion yuan (approximately 100 billion) with a term of 3 months (91 days) [1] - The bidding method will be a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding [1]

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

Core Insights - The recent surge in silver futures prices is attributed to supply tightness and positive market sentiment, with expectations of continued strength in silver prices due to short-term supply constraints and ample liquidity [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Movements - As of December 1, COMEX silver futures for March reached a historic high of $58.61 per ounce, while domestic silver futures closed at 13,278 yuan per kilogram, marking a 5.86% increase [1] - Year-to-date, COMEX silver futures have risen from $29.27 per ounce to $57.9 per ounce, reflecting a 97.81% increase, while domestic silver futures increased from 7,506 yuan per kilogram to 13,278 yuan per kilogram, a 76.9% rise [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the current strength in international silver prices is primarily driven by a supply shortage in the physical market, with expectations that this shortage will persist into the next year [1][2] - The global supply tightness of silver is highlighted as a significant factor, with the current market conditions not being influenced by traditional safe-haven attributes of precious metals [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The silver futures market is experiencing heightened risk appetite among investors, with a notable increase in funds flowing into silver futures, surpassing 50.9 billion yuan in total [2] - The only silver futures-themed fund, Guotou Ruijin Silver Futures, has reported a year-to-date net value growth rate of 62.71%, with a total scale of 6.64 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic cycle and the challenges faced by investors, emphasizing the need for strategic patience amid market fluctuations and policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The transition from "money shortage" to "asset shortage" reflects a shift in market dynamics, with liquidity excess not translating effectively into real economic growth [2] - The reluctance of producers to expand credit is attributed to a lack of consumer demand, despite the availability of low-cost funds [3] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is constrained by budget limitations, primarily driven by income levels, which are influenced by immediate, stored, and future income [4] - Policies aimed at redistributing wealth may not yield desired effects; instead, increasing production and income is suggested as a more effective approach [5] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - Effective policies should focus on increasing production to enhance immediate income and stimulate consumer spending [5] - Measures such as fiscal subsidies to encourage consumer spending from savings and breaking the expectation of precautionary savings are proposed [6] - The creation of new public works and ensuring asset appreciation are highlighted as potential strategies to boost economic activity [7][8] Group 4: Financial Dynamics - The demand for funds varies across different industries, with traditional industries facing pressures for transformation and new industries requiring long-term investments [11] - The phenomenon of "funds idling" is identified as a critical issue, necessitating regulatory measures to ensure that financial resources effectively support the real economy [12] Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The liquidity situation in 2026 is expected to be less favorable than in 2025, with a greater reliance on structural debt increases for liquidity creation [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment climate, highlighting the shift from liquidity abundance to an "asset shortage" as a result of changing global economic conditions and the impact of monetary policies [2][17]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Policy Implications - Investor sentiment is adjusting as the year-end approaches, with a mix of optimism regarding global AI competition and pessimism about domestic demand [1]. - The Chinese central bank's decision not to lower reserve requirements or interest rates contrasts with aggressive expectations from investors, reflecting a cautious policy approach [1][17]. Group 2: Liquidity and Credit Expansion - The transition from "money shortage" to "asset shortage" indicates a surplus of liquidity that is not effectively penetrating the real economy [2]. - Producers are reluctant to expand credit despite the availability of funds, primarily due to concerns about consumer demand and external risks [3]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Economic Constraints - Consumer spending is constrained by budget limitations, which stem from income sources such as current earnings, savings, and future income expectations [4]. - Policies aimed at redistributing wealth may not yield desired effects; instead, increasing production and income is suggested as a more effective approach to stimulate consumption [5][6]. Group 4: Future Economic Strategies - Various strategies are proposed to enhance consumer spending, including direct cash transfers, breaking the expectation of precautionary savings, and creating new public works projects [6][7][8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining asset value and encouraging consumption in the real estate and service sectors to drive economic growth [9][10][11]. Group 5: Regulatory Perspectives - Regulatory authorities are focused on addressing issues of capital inefficiency and ensuring that financial activities support the real economy [14]. - The government aims to stabilize the currency and refine monetary policy frameworks to enhance the effectiveness of interest rate adjustments [15][16]. Group 6: Future Liquidity Outlook - The analysis suggests that liquidity in 2026 may be less abundant than in 2025, with a greater reliance on structural debt increases to create liquidity [17].

央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年11月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展10000亿元MLF操作，期限为 1年期。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行会计 | 支付体系 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党建工作 | | | 服务互动 | 政务公开 | 政策解读 | 公告信息 | 图文直播 | 央行研究 | 音频视频 | 市场动态 | 网上展厅 | 报告下载 | 报刊年鉴 | | | 网送文告 | 办事大厅 | 在线申报 | 下载中心 | 网上调查 | 意见征集 | 金融 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 800 billion yuan reverse repo operation on November 17, aimed at maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of 6 months [1][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The upcoming operation will involve a fixed amount and interest rate bidding, with a total of 800 billion yuan for a 182-day term [1]. - This operation indicates a continuation of the 6-month reverse repo, with an additional 500 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [4]. - The PBOC's previous operation on November 5 involved a 700 billion yuan 3-month reverse repo, effectively renewing the same amount due to the maturity of 700 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts suggest that this marks the sixth consecutive month the PBOC has injected medium-term liquidity through reverse repos [5]. - Factors contributing to this liquidity support include the issuance of 500 billion yuan in local government bonds and the completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments, which are expected to increase loan issuance [5]. - The upcoming maturity of 900 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) is anticipated to create pressure for renewal, which the reverse repo operation may alleviate [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - There is a general expectation that the PBOC will continue to utilize various tools, including reverse repos and MLF, to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system [7]. - The PBOC may also consider increasing the scale of government bond purchases to smooth liquidity pressures, reflecting its intention to maintain a supportive monetary environment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year Treasury ETF (511090) has shown positive performance with a recent increase of 0.07%, indicating a recovery in the bond market supported by improved liquidity and favorable policy expectations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 7, 2025, the 30-year Treasury ETF has a trading volume of 3.93% and a transaction value of 1.294 billion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 9.544 billion yuan over the past month [1]. - The latest scale of the 30-year Treasury ETF reached 32.854 billion yuan, with a total of 275 million shares [1]. - The ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past three days, totaling 847 million yuan, with a peak single-day net inflow of 527 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Expectations - The bond market is expected to maintain a warming trend towards the end of the year, driven by ample liquidity and a recovery in market sentiment [1]. - Historical patterns suggest that the fourth quarter typically sees better performance in the bond market, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and proactive positioning by institutions [2]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a resumption of government bond buying operations, which is expected to positively influence market sentiment [2]. Group 3: Index and Investment Characteristics - The 30-year Treasury ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Treasury Index, which includes publicly issued 30-year government bonds [2]. - This index serves as a benchmark for performance comparison and investment in long-term government bonds [2].