Report Overview - The report is a Polyolefin Morning Report dated July 29, 2025, focusing on LLDPE and PP [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For LLDPE, due to cost support, macro - policy push, but weak demand, the market is expected to oscillate today [4][6] - For PP, with cost support and macro - policy push, yet weak demand, it is also expected to show an oscillating trend today [7][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a stable - growth plan. The downstream demand is weak, and the current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7370 (+0), with overall neutral fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 35, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, considered neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), a bearish factor [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand, it is expected to oscillate today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and macro - policy push; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [6] PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI and Caixin PMI showed certain trends. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high temperature and heavy rain. The current PP delivery spot price is 7150 (-50), with overall neutral fundamentals [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 20, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, considered neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), a bearish factor [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, a bullish sign [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, a bearish factor [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds. With the macro - stable growth plan and weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, it is expected to oscillate today [7] - **Factors**: Bullish factors are cost support and macro - policy push; the bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is cost - demand and domestic macro - policy push [8] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7370 (+0), the 09 - contract price is 7335 (-121), the basis is 35, and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4) [4][9] - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7150 (-50), the 09 - contract price is 7130 (-91), the basis is 20, and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5) [7][9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. showed different trends. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, etc. changed over time. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to be 4906 [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic methanol market is expected to have a local upward trend, but the increase in some regions may be limited. In the port market, the "anti - involution" reform of coal boosts coking coal and coke futures, which may further support the spot and futures prices of methanol in ports. However, the concentrated arrival of imports next week may lead to inventory accumulation and limit the price increase. Attention should be paid to import arrivals and macro - external news. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season continues, and poor downstream profitability restricts cost transfer and demand. But with no inventory pressure on inland factories and continuous procurement demand from CTO factories in the northwest, the supply - demand balance remains stable. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling over - production in coal mines have pushed up the methanol futures market, which is positive for inland operators. The inland methanol market is expected to continue to be stable with a slight upward trend [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - The short - term domestic methanol market has different trends in ports and inland areas. Port prices may be affected by coal policies and import arrivals, while inland prices are influenced by the off - season, downstream profitability, and policies [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Spot Prices - Prices in different regions showed varying degrees of change. For example, in Jiangsu, the price increased from 2385 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2488 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 4.32%. In Hebei, the price rose from 2190 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, a 1.60% increase. In Shandong (Lunan), the price remained unchanged at 2230 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Methanol Futures and Basis - The futures price increased from 2365 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2519 yuan/ton on July 25th, with a weekly increase of 6.51%. The basis showed fluctuations, with a weekly change of - 51 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2.3 Methanol Production Profits by Process - Coal - based production profit increased from 265 yuan/ton on July 18th to 315 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 50 - yuan increase. Natural gas - based production profit remained at - 120 yuan/ton. Coke oven gas - based production profit increased from 451 yuan/ton to 474 yuan/ton, a 334 - yuan increase [11]. 3.2.4 Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load - The national methanol load decreased from 78.71% last week to 74.90% this week, a 3.81% decrease. In the northwest region, it decreased from 85.09% to 81.54%, a 3.55% decrease [13]. 3.2.5 Outer - Market Methanol Prices and Spreads - CFR China price increased from 270 dollars/ton on July 18th to 280 dollars/ton on July 25th, a 3.70% increase. CFR Southeast Asia price increased slightly from 330.5 dollars/ton to 333.5 dollars/ton, a 0.91% increase. The spread between them changed from - 60.5 dollars/ton to - 53.5 dollars/ton [16]. 3.2.6 Methanol Import Spreads - The import cost increased from 2388 yuan/ton on July 18th to 2470 yuan/ton on July 25th, a 3.44% increase. The import spread changed from - 3 yuan/ton to 18 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase [19]. 3.2.7 Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices - The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid remained unchanged during the week, with a 0.00% change [26]. 3.2.8 Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products - Formaldehyde production profit decreased from - 165 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 24.52% to 25.42%. Dimethyl ether production profit decreased from 410 yuan/ton to 361 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 8.06% to 8.88%. Acetic acid production profit decreased from - 62 yuan/ton to - 118 yuan/ton, and the load increased from 80.48% to 82.42% [27][29][35]. 3.2.9 MTO Production Profits and Loads - MTO production profit decreased from - 932 yuan/ton on July 18th to - 1262 yuan/ton on July 25th. The MTO/MTP device load decreased from 79.84% last week to 79.69% this week [39]. 3.2.10 Methanol Port Inventory - In the East China port, the inventory decreased from 44.6 tons last week to 41.67 tons this week, a 2.93 - ton decrease. In the South China port, the inventory increased from 15 tons to 17.04 tons, a 2.04 - ton increase [43]. 3.2.11 Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts - Warehouse receipts increased from 8544 on July 18th to 10134 on July 25th, a 18.61% increase. Effective forecasts decreased from 1800 to 0, a 100.00% decrease [44]. 3.3 Maintenance Status 3.3.1 Domestic Methanol Device Maintenance - Many domestic methanol enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and the weekly maintenance losses also differ. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat's maintenance loss is 1950 tons, and Qinghai Zhonghao's is 9100 tons [47]. 3.3.2 Overseas Methanol Device Operation - In Iran, some methanol plants are in the process of restarting or operating at different levels, such as ZPC, Kaveh, etc. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and Qatar, most plants are operating normally, but some are under maintenance, such as QAFAC [48]. 3.3.3 Olefin Device Operation - In the northwest, most olefin and methanol - olefin integrated devices are operating normally or have specific operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy is under maintenance, while Yan'an Energy and Chemical is operating stably. In other regions, the operating conditions of olefin devices also vary [49].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The upstream coal market sentiment is positive due to industry anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity policies, driving the urea futures market stronger. After the elimination of urea production capacity, the supply - side pressure will be effectively alleviated, with a strong expectation. However, currently, there is a weak reality with sufficient supply, slow - growing demand, limited exports, and large inventory accumulation [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread - Urea主力收盘1803元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-20）；山东小颗粒市场价1790元/吨（-20）；江苏小颗粒市场价1810元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差 - 13元/吨（-38）；河南尿素基差7元/吨（-38）；江苏尿素基差7元/吨（-28）；尿素生产利润260.0元/吨（-20.0）；出口利润1094.6元/吨（+16.0） [1] 2. Upstream Supply - As of July 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.6% (-1.5%), the enterprise in - factory inventory was 85.9 million tons (-3.7), and the port inventory was 54.3 million tons (+0.2). The short - term supply is relatively sufficient, and new production facilities are gradually put into operation, with production remaining at a high level [1][2] 3. Downstream Demand - As of July 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.6% (+1.0%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.2% (+1.0%), and the urea enterprise advance order days were 5.9 days (-0.1). Agricultural demand is gradually ending, industrial demand is in the off - season, and the start - up of autumn compound fertilizer production is slow, with no bright spots in demand [1][2] 4. Urea Inventory - The inventory depletion rate of enterprises has slowed down, and the total inventory has accumulated significantly compared with the same period in previous years [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish in the short term. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts. - Cross - variety: Coal - based urea production profit [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, with specific recommendations for companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Yancheng Chemical, and Runfeng Shares [13]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery, particularly in the pesticide sector, driven by regulatory actions against illegal production and price increases for key products [1][2]. - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic factors on oil and gas prices, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% and expectations of increased oil supply from non-OPEC sources [2][4]. - The report suggests that the elimination of outdated production capacity may improve the industry structure, particularly in key sectors like steel and petrochemicals [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the current macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry, noting a stable increase in oil demand despite some slowdown due to tariffs [2]. - It mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream industries [2]. Price Trends - Recent price movements include a 15% increase in the price of certain herbicides and a general upward trend in pesticide prices due to regulatory actions [1]. - The report notes that TDI prices are expected to rise due to production halts in Europe, with global TDI inventory at low levels [1]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Wanhua Chemical, Yancheng Chemical, and Runfeng Shares, among others [1][13]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of companies in the agricultural chemicals sector, particularly those involved in pesticide production [1][13]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that the chemical industry is currently in a recovery phase, with signs of improvement in demand and pricing for key products [1]. - It highlights the importance of regulatory compliance and the impact of government policies on market dynamics [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Viewpoints - The anti - involution expectation may fluctuate between continuation and cooling, and market sentiment is also volatile. The futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate between reality and expectation. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and short - term sentiment changes. As August approaches, the 09 contract will follow the delivery logic [2]. - For glass, the supply end daily melting volume has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected situations. The cumulative apparent demand has declined by 8%, but it has improved month - on - month. The market is in a weak balance. The manufacturer's inventory has decreased, while the middle - stream inventory has increased rapidly, and the overall social inventory remains high [2]. - For soda ash, the overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance. The inventory is at a historical high, and the market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The current daily melting volume of glass is 159,000 tons. The supply end has slightly increased, and there are no unexpected changes. From an environmental perspective, the daily melting volume of petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines accounts for 17% and 12% respectively; from the kiln age perspective, the daily melting volume of glass production lines in operation for more than 10 years accounts for about 15% [1]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory glass inventory is 61.896 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million heavy boxes compared to the previous week, a decrease of 4.69% week - on - week and 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days are 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days compared to the previous period. The middle - stream inventory in Shahe has increased rapidly, and under the positive feedback, the manufacturer's inventory has continuously decreased [1]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are - 168 yuan for natural gas, + 129 yuan for coal - gas, and + 53 yuan for petroleum coke [1]. - **Demand**: As of mid - July, the average order days of deep - processing sample enterprises are 9.3 days, a decrease of 2.1% week - on - week and 7% year - on - year. The deep - processing enterprises' original glass inventory is 10.4 days, an increase of 13% week - on - week and year - on - year. The average production and sales rate in each region this week is 123, a significant increase compared to the previous week. The spot price in Hubei has continued to rise [1]. Soda Ash Core Viewpoints - **Supply**: The overall supply is stable, with a weekly output of 72.38 tons (a decrease of 0.94 tons compared to the previous week, including a decrease of 0.58 tons in heavy soda ash and 0.36 tons in light soda ash). There are minor maintenance expectations in August, and the supply is expected to remain unchanged. The impact of short - term output fluctuations is weakening. The anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity expectations continue, but the actual impact awaits further policy guidance [4]. - **Inventory**: The soda ash factory inventory is 1.8646 million tons, a decrease of 41,000 tons compared to the previous week (a decrease of 40,800 tons in light soda ash and 200 tons in heavy soda ash). The delivery warehouse inventory is 305,000 tons (an increase of 58,400 tons). The total inventory of the factory and the delivery warehouse is 2.1696 million tons, an increase of 17,400 tons compared to the previous week, and the inventory is still accumulating at a high level [4]. - **Profit**: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash produced by the combined soda process is + 18 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - soda process is - 35 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The current daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 87,700 tons and continues to decline slowly. The inventory of photovoltaic finished products has started to decrease, and its sustainability needs to be observed. The float glass end remains stable overall [4]. Glass Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on glass futures' main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity [7][8]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the price of Shahe delivery products, the market price of 5mm float glass in different regions, regional price differences, and size - plate price differences [10][18]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on glass futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [20][25]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the production, loss, start - up rate, and production line start - up number of float glass [33][35]. - **Production and Sales**: Offers seasonal data on the glass production - sales rate in different regions [39]. - **Deep - Processing**: Provides seasonal data on the original glass inventory days, order days, and their ratios and differences in glass deep - processing enterprises [44]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of float glass using different processes [50]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the import and export volume of float glass [53]. - **Statistics Bureau Data**: Provides seasonal data on the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [56]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the inventory of float glass manufacturers, average available inventory days, and inventory in different regions and in Shahe [60][62]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of float glass, with and without imports and exports [73]. Soda Ash Industry Chain Data - **Futures Market**: Provides seasonal data on the main contract closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of soda ash futures [78]. - **Spot Market**: Includes seasonal data on the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions and price differences between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [82][92]. - **Month - to - Month and Basis**: Presents seasonal data on soda ash futures' month - to - month spreads and basis for different contracts in different regions [96][100]. - **Supply**: Contains seasonal data on the weekly and monthly production, heavy - quality rate, capacity utilization rate, and production of heavy and light soda ash in different regions [104][124]. - **Cost and Profit**: Presents seasonal data on the production cost and profit of light soda ash using different processes [126]. - **Import and Export**: Contains seasonal data on the monthly import, export, and net export volume of soda ash [135]. - **Inventory**: Includes seasonal data on the factory inventory, average available inventory days, delivery warehouse inventory, and inventory in different regions of soda ash [138]. - **Apparent Demand**: Presents seasonal data on the weekly and monthly apparent demand of soda ash, light soda ash, and heavy soda ash, with and without imports and exports, as well as the raw material inventory days of glass factories and the pending order days of soda ash enterprises [144][151]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Provides seasonal data on the daily melting volume, loss volume, and inventory of photovoltaic glass, as well as the combined daily melting volume and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass [155][158].

商品气氛偏强，带动甲醇上涨 中泰期货甲醇产业链周报 2025年7月27日 姓名：芦瑞 从业资格号：F3013255 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013570 联系电话： 18888368717 公司地址：济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话：400-618-6767 公司网址：www.ztqh.com 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易咨询资格证号（证监许可〔2012〕112） 目录 1 现货市场 4 行情预期 3 产业链利润 2 基差价差 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 逻辑观点 近期商品情绪好转，淘汰落后产能等消息刺激市场情绪，气氛的好转带动了甲醇、烯烃等品种的反弹。 甲醇目前上游高利润、下游低利润，不具备大幅上涨的基础。 甲醇基本面变动不大，甲醇自身供应压力还是比较大，高利润刺激上游形成高供应，下游需求增长乏力， 长期来看甲醇整体偏弱。情绪消退以后，预计会进入偏弱震荡的格局，我们建议谨防回调风险。 单边策略：谨防回调风险 对冲策略：观望。 风险因素：地缘政治局势突变导致伊朗甲醇出口受阻 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 现货市场情况 投资咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 交易 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - Supply-side contraction policies need further observation. Given the low proportion of backward alumina production capacity and new production expected this year, the overcapacity situation may persist [12][13]. - Short-term commodity buying sentiment is subsiding, and the shortage of tradable spot goods is expected to ease. It is recommended to short at high levels based on market sentiment. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to warrant registration, supply-side policies, and Guinean ore policies [12][13] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Prices**: As of the night session on July 25, the alumina index rose 3.25% to 3245 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 16,000 lots to 409,000 lots. Policy expectations drove up prices earlier in the week, but prices fell on Friday due to a return to fundamental logic. The Shandong spot price was 3195 yuan/ton, at a discount of 53 yuan/ton to the 08 contract. The spread between the first and third continuous contracts fluctuated, closing at 1 yuan/ton on Friday night [11][24] - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions rebounded slightly this week. Prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang increased by 40 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 55 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton, and 50 yuan/ton respectively, driven by policy and tight spot supply [11][21] - **Inventory**: Alumina social inventory increased by 58,000 tons to 4.047 million tons this week. Warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 2,100 tons to 9,000 tons. The registration volume of warehouse receipts rebounded slightly but remained at a historical low [11][69][71] 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in various regions rebounded slightly, driven by policy and tight spot supply [21] - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The alumina index rose earlier in the week and fell on Friday. The Shandong spot price was at a discount to the 08 contract. The spread between the first and third continuous contracts fluctuated [24] - **Bauxite Prices**: Bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. Imported ore prices were under pressure due to high arrivals and rising port inventories [27] 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite**: In June 2025, China's bauxite production was 5.19 million tons, and imports were 18.12 million tons. Imports from Guinea are expected to decline after June, but the annual supply will remain in surplus. The regulatory announcements in Guinea have caused market uncertainty [31][33][35] - **Alumina Production**: In June 2025, alumina production was 7.33 million tons. This week, domestic alumina production reached a new high of 181,200 tons [41][44] - **Alumina Factory Profits**: Alumina factory profits improved with the rebound in spot prices. Profits varied by region and raw material source [47] - **Alumina Imports and Exports**: In June 2025, alumina had a net export of 69,700 tons. The import window opened slightly, and small net exports are expected to become the norm [49] - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In June 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.11 million tons [53] 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In June 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.65 million tons [58] - **Electrolytic Aluminum Start-up**: In June 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.03 million tons, and the start-up rate decreased slightly [61] 5. Supply - Demand Balance - The alumina balance sheet shows the supply - demand situation from January to August 2025 and the expected situation for July and August [64] 6. Inventory - **Alumina Social Inventory**: It increased by 58,000 tons to 4.047 million tons this week [69] - **SHFE Alumina Inventory**: Warehouse receipts increased, but the registration volume remained low. The inventory in delivery warehouses increased [71]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - In the short term, due to the continuous fermentation of the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, risk appetite rises, but corporate profits have not significantly improved, so be cautious about the short - term rebound of stock index futures and protect the profits of long positions; the end of the grace period for the US equivalent tariff policy is approaching, and trade agreements have been reached with important trading partners, leading to a significant decline in risk aversion, so gold may continue to adjust after the end of the rebound, and short positions can be attempted. In the medium to long term, the valuation of stock indices is dragged down by the decline in corporate profit growth at the molecular end, and the support at the denominator end comes from the rise in risk appetite, so the stock index maintains a wide - range oscillation; the US may reach more trade agreements, risk aversion declines significantly, and with the approaching of the Fed's July interest rate decision, gold may face a deep adjustment [47] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data - From January to June this year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment continued to decline, the decline in real estate investment widened, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down. The year - on - year decline in new housing construction area narrowed, while the decline in commercial housing sales area and sales volume widened, indicating that real estate investment will still be restricted [5] 2. Stock Index and Gold Spot Price Trends - Not provided in the content 3. Stock Index Fundamental Data 3.1 Corporate Profit - Driven by the policy expectations of "anti - involution" and eliminating backward production capacity, commodity prices have risen continuously, which helps improve the profits of upstream raw material processing industries. However, downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure and are in the stage of active inventory reduction [20] 3.2 Capital - The balance of margin trading in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has continued to increase. The central bank conducted 1.6563 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of MLF operations this week, achieving a net investment of 12.95 billion yuan [24] 4. Gold Fundamental Data 4.1 US Economic Indicators - In June, the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped from 59.2 to 49.5, while the Services PMI rose to 55.2, reaching a new high this year. The number of initial jobless claims has declined for 6 consecutive weeks, indicating that the US manufacturing activity has slowed down, but the labor market remains strong, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield is running at a high level [30][31] 4.2 Gold Inventory - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures have increased significantly, while the New York futures inventory has continued to decline, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled down [45]

尿素日报 | 2025-07-25 政策面持续影响，上游去库速率减弱 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-24，尿素主力收盘1785元/吨（+12）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1830 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1810元/吨（-20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1820元/吨（-20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：25 元/吨（-32）；河南基差：45元/吨（-32）；江苏基差：35元/吨（-32）；尿素生产利润280元/吨（-20），出口利润1079 元/吨（-3）。 供应端：截至2025-07-24，企业产能利用率83.59%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为85.88 万吨（-3.67），港口样本 库存量为54.30 万吨（+0.20）。 需求端：截至2025-07-24，复合肥产能利用率33.58%（+1.03%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为65.20%（+0.96%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数5.94日（-0.12）。 政府公布"反内卷、淘汰落后产能"等宏观政策，持续影响尿素市场，下游受情绪带动，宏观面对价格有一定提振。 尿素装置检修较少，开工高位运行，供应端压力持续。下游农业需求推进放缓 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Products Price Index - The wholesale and retail price indices for agricultural products in Zibo have shown a decline this week, with notable fluctuations in vegetables and fruits [1][2][3] - Cabbage prices increased, with a wholesale average of 0.80 yuan per jin, up 0.10 yuan per jin (14.29%) from last week, due to reduced supply and seasonal factors [1] - Tomato prices decreased, with a wholesale average of 2.20 yuan per jin, down 0.10 yuan per jin (4.35%), attributed to increased supply from greenhouses [1] - Eggplant prices rose significantly, with a wholesale average of 1.20 yuan per jin, up 0.30 yuan per jin (33.33%), due to reduced supply from weather conditions [2] - Cabbage prices also increased, with a wholesale average of 0.70 yuan per jin, up 0.20 yuan per jin (40%), due to reduced inventory [2] - Pear prices decreased slightly, with a wholesale average of 3.23 yuan per jin, down 0.02 yuan per jin (0.62%), as the market remains stable [3] Group 2: Chemical Products Price Index - The Zibo chemical products price index is at 717.63, down 0.77 from the previous period, indicating a slight decline [4] - The basic chemical products price index increased slightly to 704.03, up 0.04, due to market confidence despite falling international oil prices [4] - The plastic products price index decreased to 747.10, down 2.51, influenced by weak demand and fluctuating raw material prices [4][5] - The rubber products price index increased to 548.32, up 8.70, driven by strong market conditions for synthetic rubber [5] Group 3: New Materials Price Index - The new materials price index is at 808.71, down 3.49 from the previous period, reflecting a downward trend [6] - The PC price index decreased to 766.04, down 3.78, due to stable raw material prices and limited demand [6] - The PET bottle chip price index increased to 907.91, up 11.00, supported by positive macroeconomic news despite cautious downstream demand [6] Group 4: Natural Gas Price Index - The average LNG market price in Zibo is 4562 yuan per ton, down 72 yuan per ton (1.55%) from last week, due to increased supply [7] - The liquid natural gas price index is expected to continue declining, while the pipeline natural gas index remains unchanged [7] Group 5: Cement Price Index - The average price for various types of cement in Zibo remains stable, with no significant changes reported [8]