Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's tariffs were illegal, positively impacting the market, leading to a collective rise in major U.S. stock indices [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.47% to 49,625.97 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.9% to 22,886.07 points, and the S&P 500 gained 0.69% to 6,909.51 points [1] Group 2: Tariff and Economic Outlook - Following the Supreme Court's decision, President Trump announced a 10% global tariff on trade partners, while some existing tariff categories remain effective [3] - Thousands of businesses and importers are expected to seek refunds for tariffs paid, amounting to up to $170 billion [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that tariff revenues are projected to remain "virtually unchanged" by 2026, with alternative mechanisms being utilized [3] - Economic growth for Q4 2025 was reported at 1.4%, significantly below the market expectation of 2.8%, with an annual growth rate of 2.2%, the lowest since 2021 [3] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices surged over 2% to reclaim $5,100, while silver experienced a significant increase of 8% [4] - As of the latest data, COMEX gold futures were reported at $5,130, and COMEX silver futures at $84.57, reflecting an 8.93% rise [4] Group 4: Cybersecurity Sector Performance - Multiple cybersecurity stocks experienced significant declines, with AKAM dropping over 14%, Cloudflare down over 8%, and CrowdStrike nearly 8% [7] - The decline was influenced by Anthropic's introduction of a new security feature in its Claude AI model, which can identify security vulnerabilities in code [7] - The new feature, while beneficial for detecting vulnerabilities, also poses risks as it may assist attackers in exploiting these vulnerabilities [7]

2026年启幕"十五五"新篇，全球经济于大国博弈与技术变革中寻求平衡，中国经济则在韧性增长与结构升 级中迈向高质量发展。外部环境变幻、内需复苏、新质生产力培育及金融"五篇大文章"落地，构成新一年 核心议题。值此，金融界特别推出《启航·预见2026》栏目，聚集百位首席，拆解政策取向、解析产业机 遇、预判市场走势。 本文作者：广开首席产研院院长连平 2025年，在美国"对等关税"实施、贸易环境恶化、外汇市场波动加剧、地缘冲突烈度升级等多重冲击下， 世界经济复苏进程持续承压。展望2026年，全球经济在消除部分不稳定性和不均衡性的同时，又将面临新 的变局，各种"灰犀牛""黑天鹅"风险交织叠加，将对世界经济和中国经济产生重要且深远的影响。 变局一：发达经济体面临滞胀风险 在地缘冲突、贸易保护主义和"对等关税"的影响下，2026年世界经济增长总体放缓。IMF、OECD、联合国 等预测，2026年全球经济增长约2.7%-3.1%，较2025年小幅回落。新兴经济体继续成为生力军。尤其是中 国、印度、越南等亚洲经济体表现更为亮眼，对世界经济的贡献将持续增强。2026年东亚、南亚和非洲经 济增速分别预计为4.4%、5.6%和4. ...

一方面，短期推升通胀的因素难以避免。数据显示，2026年1月1日至12日当周，俄CPI累计上升 1.26%，截至1月12日年度通胀率为6.27%，较上月出现反弹。市场分析认为，超过一半的涨幅受消费篮 子中波动较大且受调控的商品与服务推动，包括水果、蔬菜、酒类、汽车、住房与公用事业费用、交通 运输、燃油以及旅游服务等。 另一方面，俄央行还将面对更深层次的通胀压力。有专家指出，2025年下半年出现的价格增速放缓趋势 可能难以持续。增值税上调、小企业税制改革以及预期的关税上涨，均可能成为推动通胀走强的重要因 素。市场预计，增值税调整将在今年上半年进一步推高物价，但到下半年，高通胀问题有望缓解，货币 政策可能相应放宽。 在此背景下，有专家提示需警惕潜在的滞胀风险。俄罗斯科学院经济研究所首席研究员伊戈尔·尼古拉 耶夫表示，2026年，俄主要经济威胁来自滞胀风险，而应对滞胀十分困难。刺激经济增长的措施通常会 推高通胀，而抑制通胀的政策又可能拖累经济复苏。他指出，目前通胀"虽尚未构成危机，但很可能演 变为危机"。 因此，俄罗斯工业家和企业家联盟主席亚历山大·绍欣呼吁，应扭转经济持续降温的局面，推动经济走 向可持续增长。绍欣 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 新任美联储主席提名人选终于揭晓。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普30日提名美联储前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席，这一提名还 需获得参议院批准。 消息传出后，市场震荡。1月30日美股盘前，美股股指期货集体下挫。 市场反应如此剧烈的原因在于：这位曾被认为是坚定"鹰派"的美联储前理事，如何成为呼吁大幅降 息的特朗普提名的最终人选? 鹰派还是鸽派？ 55岁的凯文·沃什并非美联储新面孔。这位华尔街出身的前美联储理事，在2008年金融危机期间展 现出"鹰派"姿态。 2006年2月，年仅35岁的他在时任美国总统布什提名下成为美联储理事，创下美联储史上最年轻理 事纪录。此前，他在摩根士丹利从事并购业务7年，后在白宫担任总统经济政策特别助理。 金融危机期间，沃什成为时任美联储主席伯南克与华尔街的关键联络人。然而，他的政策立场却引 发争议，在2008年金融危机期间美国劳动力市场崩溃时，他仍主张尽早结束量化宽松，优先关注 通胀风险而非刺激经济。最终，他在2011年3月辞职，比原定任期提前7年。 离开美联储后，沃什转战学界和商界，担任斯坦福大 ...

随着美联储主席鲍威尔任期临近尾声，美国央行的政策基调正趋于稳定。鲍威尔在周三的新闻发布会上 表示，他相信自己将经济留在了"坚实的基础之上"，这也意味着美联储可能进入较长时间的降息暂停 期。 在1月27日至28日举行的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议后，美联储以10票赞成、2票反对的结果，将 联邦基金利率维持在3.5%至3.75%区间不变。此前，美联储已在去年下半年累计降息75个基点。美联储 理事沃勒和米兰本周投下反对票，主张再降息25个基点。 政策声明显示，FOMC将经济增长描述从去年12月的"温和扩张"上调为"稳健增长"，并指出就业增长仍 然偏低，但失业率已有稳定迹象。同时，美联储删除了此前有关劳动力市场下行风险上升的表述，强调 通胀"仍然略高"。鲍威尔也对记者重申，当前政策利率已"处于接近中性水平的合理区间"，可以根据未 来数据变化灵活应对。 纽约梅隆银行投资公司首席经济学家、前美联储高级官员Vincent Reinhart表示，美联储去年下半年的降 息相当于"购买保险"，以防劳动力市场进一步走弱。但目前就业并未显著恶化，而通胀仍高于目标，这 支持美联储维持现有政策不变。摩根士丹利和麦格理分析师也认为， ...

2025年，在美国"对等关税"实施、贸易环境恶化、外汇市场波动加剧、地缘冲突烈度升级等多重冲击下，世界经济复苏进程持续承压。展望2026年，全球 经济在消除部分不稳定性和不均衡性的同时，又将面临新的变局，各种"灰犀牛""黑天鹅"风险交织叠加，将对世界经济和中国经济产生重要且深远的影 响。 变局一：发达经济体面临滞胀风险 在地缘冲突、贸易保护主义和"对等关税"的影响下，2026年世界经济增长总体放缓。IMF、OECD、联合国等预测，2026年全球经济增长约2.7%—3.1%， 较2025年小幅回落。新兴经济体继续成为生力军。尤其是中国、印度、越南等亚洲经济体表现更为亮眼，对世界经济的贡献将持续增强。2026年东亚、南 亚和非洲经济增速分别预计为4.4%、5.6%和4.0%。发达经济体增速则普遍较为低迷。美国在AI资本开支与减税政策支撑下，增速约为1.8%—2.2%；欧元 区受制于地缘政治不确定性、能源成本与人口老龄化等因素，增速为0.9%—1.2%；日本经济则因消费和投资放缓增速预计为0.7%—0.9%。美国消费市场 和劳动力市场趋冷弱化增长动能。2025年12月美国制造业指数降至47.9，为2024年10月以 ...

Group 1 - The report predicts that developed economies may face stagflation risks in 2026, leading to uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which may exceed market expectations and follow a non-linear path of "cut first, then raise" [1] - Global stock markets are expected to experience volatile upward trends in 2026, with structural differentiation driven by capital flows, valuation differences, and policy uncertainties [1] - The dollar is likely to remain relatively weak, fluctuating within the 95-100 range, while gold prices may trend upwards in the medium to long term, showing "high-level fluctuations, overall strength, and narrowing gains" [1] Group 2 - In China, a more proactive fiscal policy is expected to play a crucial role in macroeconomic regulation, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures [2] - The consumption landscape is anticipated to improve significantly in 2026, driven by clear policy direction, steady income growth, and enhanced consumption infrastructure [2] - China's exports are projected to maintain stable growth due to the country's competitive advantages and increasing diversification of export markets [2] Group 3 - To further stimulate economic growth, targeted policy measures are recommended, including increased fiscal and credit support for service consumption and the implementation of an "external capital industry chain empowerment plan" [3] - Emphasis is placed on the role of major economic provinces in driving growth and incentivizing private enterprises to engage in technological innovation [3] - Attention is also needed to address local fiscal challenges and to implement risk warning and prevention measures in the stock market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell centers around the rising costs of the Federal Reserve's headquarters renovation, which has escalated from an initial budget of $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, highlighting a broader power struggle over U.S. economic policy and monetary independence [1][3]. Group 1: Renovation Costs and Economic Policy - Trump has criticized the Federal Reserve's renovation costs, claiming they are excessive, while he himself has increased the budget for a new White House banquet hall from $200 million to $400 million [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve attributes the cost overruns to unforeseen circumstances such as asbestos contamination and higher-than-expected groundwater levels [3]. - Trump believes that high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve hinder economic growth and increase corporate financing costs, while Powell maintains that high rates are necessary to address inflation and employment [3][5]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Challenges - Trump faces significant legal hurdles in attempting to dismiss Powell, as the Federal Reserve Act protects the chairman from being removed without just cause, which includes gross negligence [5]. - The Supreme Court has historically upheld the independence of the Federal Reserve, making it difficult for the president to remove the chairman based solely on policy disagreements [5]. - Trump's previous attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve include the dismissal of a board member, which was later overturned by a federal appeals court [5]. Group 3: Potential Candidates for Federal Reserve Leadership - The list of potential candidates to succeed Powell includes Kevin Hassett, who supports interest rate cuts, and Kevin Warsh, who is seen as more hawkish regarding inflation control [6]. - Other candidates mentioned are current Federal Reserve board members and executives from major financial institutions [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Implications - Historical precedents show that presidential pressure on the Federal Reserve can lead to negative economic outcomes, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [9]. - Current economic conditions, including rising tariffs and their impact on prices, complicate the situation, with predictions of short-term price increases due to Trump's trade policies [9]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining trust in the U.S. dollar, and any successful intervention in monetary policy could lead to a loss of confidence among investors and accelerate de-dollarization globally [9].

Market Movements - US stock index futures are all up ahead of the market opening, with Dow futures rising by 0.12%, S&P 500 futures by 0.40%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.76% [1] - European indices also show positive movement, with Germany's DAX up 0.26%, UK's FTSE 100 up 0.22%, France's CAC 40 up 0.21%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.38% [2][3] Economic Data and Predictions - The upcoming release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) is highly anticipated, with economists predicting a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, and a core CPI increase of 3.0% [5] - If the CPI reading is at 2.9%, it could provide positive momentum for the stock market heading into 2026, potentially clearing the way for a "Santa Claus rally" [5] - UBS analysts indicate that recent employment data suggests potential weakness in the US labor market, which may justify the Federal Reserve's consideration of "insurance-style" rate cuts next year [7] Company-Specific Developments - Micron Technology reported a significant revenue increase of 57% year-over-year to $13.6 billion, exceeding market expectations, and projected Q2 revenue between $18.3 billion and $19.1 billion, indicating strong demand for storage chips driven by AI infrastructure [9] - Nvidia board member Harvey Jones sold over $44 million worth of company stock, raising concerns about valuation levels after a 28% increase in stock price this year [10] - Tesla is projected to sell 125,937 electric vehicles in the US from October to December, a decline of over 22% compared to the previous year, indicating potential challenges in the domestic and international markets [11] - BP appointed Meg O'Neill as CEO, marking a significant leadership change aimed at refocusing on oil and gas operations after challenges in transitioning to renewable energy [12] - Elliott Management has invested over $1 billion in Lululemon and is recommending a new CEO candidate to address the company's struggles [12]

Group 1: Direct Impact on Individuals - Lower consumption costs due to reduced interest rates and appreciation of RMB against USD, making overseas education, travel, and cross-border shopping cheaper, saving families over ten thousand yuan annually [1] - Decrease in prices of imported goods such as luxury items and electronics, providing short-term benefits to consumers [2] - Decline in yields of dollar deposits, US Treasury bonds, and dollar-linked financial products, necessitating adjustments in asset allocation [3] - Support for safe-haven assets like gold and silver due to a weaker dollar, but caution advised as gold prices are at historical highs [4] - Eased mortgage pressure with potential reductions in monthly payments for loans, such as a decrease of 150 yuan for a 1 million yuan mortgage over 30 years [5] Group 2: Differentiated Impact on Enterprises - Positive effects for import enterprises as procurement costs in RMB decrease, leading to short-term profit increases [6] - Companies with dollar-denominated debts benefit from lower overseas financing costs and reduced interest expenses on existing dollar debts [7] - Emerging industries may see increased foreign investment, potentially boosting valuations in sectors like new energy and semiconductors [8] - Negative impact on dollar-denominated export companies as rising commodity prices weaken international competitiveness, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like textiles and home appliances [9] - Increased costs for raw material import companies due to rising international commodity prices, affecting sectors such as chemicals and air logistics [10] Group 3: Investment Market Opportunities and Risks - Anticipation of foreign capital inflow into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, benefiting technology growth stocks (AI, semiconductors) and interest-sensitive sectors (brokerage, real estate) [11] - Caution advised regarding the risk of "good news being fully priced in," which may lead to increased short-term volatility [11] - Narrowing interest rate differentials between China and the US alleviating depreciation pressure on RMB, with a trend of increased foreign allocation to Chinese bonds [12] - RMB exchange rate expected to stabilize and trend upwards, with recent offshore rates surpassing 7.06, though rapid appreciation may impact exports [13] - Weaker dollar driving capital towards emerging markets, with Chinese assets viewed as "value traps," but caution against rapid inflow and outflow of speculative capital [14] Group 4: Long-term Policy and Economic Linkages - Expansion of domestic policy space with reduced external constraints, allowing for more flexible monetary policy, supporting a "moderately loose" stance through 2026 [15] - Coordination of fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize growth as indicated by the Central Political Bureau meeting [15] - Potential systemic risks if the US aggressively lowers interest rates due to political pressure, which could lead to technology stock bubbles or stagflation risks [15] - Possible acceleration of RMB internationalization if the dollar's global status is undermined by diminished independence of the Federal Reserve [15]