Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Night trading saw significant declines in coking coal, and steel prices followed suit, maintaining a downward trend. Demand remains weak in the off - season. After the September 3rd parade, logistics resumed, which is conducive to demand release. In August, the supply - demand gap widened, and inventory increased significantly. Entering September - October, there is an expectation of seasonal strengthening in demand. If the apparent demand recovers, the supply - demand gap will narrow, and inventory accumulation will slow down. Currently, steel prices have fallen from high levels. For trading strategies, the space for unilateral short - selling is limited, and selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered. Given the significant contraction in steel mill profits and the expected reduction in coking coal production, going long on the steel - to - iron ore ratio can be considered [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices decreased slightly. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3312 yuan/ton to 3310 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton to 3303 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3180 yuan/ton. Profits of most steel products decreased, such as the East China rebar profit decreased by 23 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.7 to 240.1 (a 0.3% decline), while the output of five major steel products increased by 6.5 to 884.6 (a 0.7% increase). The inventory of five major steel products increased by 26.8 to 1467.9 (a 1.9% increase) [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume decreased by 1.7 to 8.2 (a 17.0% decline), while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 4.8 to 857.8 (a 0.6% increase) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, the iron ore 2601 contract showed an oscillating rebound trend. Fundamentally, the global shipping volume of iron ore increased significantly to a high for the year, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, steel mill profit margins are at a relatively high level. After the parade, Tangshan quickly resumed production, and pig iron output will rebound rapidly. Looking ahead, the impact of the parade - related production restrictions is limited, and there is currently no strong driving force for a significant increase. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" is questionable. For trading strategies, the unilateral trend is regarded as range - bound, with a reference range of 750 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [3]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse receipt costs of most iron ore varieties increased slightly. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of Carajás fines increased by 8.8 to 807.7 (a 1.1% increase). The basis of most varieties for the 01 contract increased significantly, such as the 01 - contract basis of Carajás fines increased by 33.8 to 30.7 (a 1102.2% increase) [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 132.7 to 2526.0 (a 5.5% increase), and the global weekly shipping volume increased by 241.0 to 3556.8 (a 7.3% increase). The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 240.1 (a 0.2% decline) [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13776.51 (a 0.1% increase), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.3 to 9007.2 (a 0.6% decline) [3]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close of trading yesterday afternoon, both coke and coking coal futures showed an oscillating weakening trend. For coking coal, the spot auction price is stable to weak, and the supply - demand situation has eased. For coke, the spot price has stabilized after a price increase, and the supply will gradually become more abundant. The impact of short - term production restrictions is limited. For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke or coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of most coke and coking coal contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke decreased from 1597 yuan/ton to 1594 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased from 1113 yuan/ton to 1106 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The weekly output of coke decreased, and the weekly output of coking coal decreased due to mine accidents and production suspension for rectification but is expected to recover. The weekly pig iron output decreased but is expected to rebound rapidly after the parade [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke inventories in coking plants, ports, and steel mills increased slightly, while coking coal inventories in mines, ports, and some intermediate links increased, and inventories in washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills decreased slightly [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, in July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks in China have cut deposit rates. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, which boosted the night - session of black commodities. The profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to July increased significantly. The iron water output is at a high level, and the coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategically, affected by the Fed's potential rate cuts, the market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering the undecided eighth - round price increase, potential price cuts, and the approaching military parade on September 3rd, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: In July, China's monthly electricity consumption hit a record high, and power supply is stable. Multiple small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. From January to July, the profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. Overseas, the Fed is open to rate cuts, and some Fed officials support rate cuts in September [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron water output is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons. The coking coal inventory is increasing. The eighth round of coke price increase is undecided, and there are voices of price cuts. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 55 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The market sentiment is volatile. The coke price is mainly determined by the industry in the short term. Considering various factors, the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend, and the main contract of coke should be treated as a volatile operation [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 29th, the coke futures contract position was 48,700 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1011 lots. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts of coke was 162.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 110.5 points. The warehouse receipt volume increased by 90 lots week - on - week, and the ratio of rebar to coke increased by 0.02 points week - on - week [13][19]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 28th, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1530 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 1100 yuan/ton. As of August 29th, the coke basis was - 142.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 41.5 points. In July, the output of raw coal by industrial enterprises above the designated size was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. From January to July, the output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.91% [25][28]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Coking Enterprises**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 72.70%, a decrease of 1.47%. The daily coke output was 51,280 tons, a decrease of 1030 tons. The coke inventory was 398,100 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.1987 million tons, a decrease of 40,700 tons. The available days of coking coal were 12.0 days, an increase of 0.18 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron water output of 247 steel mills was 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.0062 million tons compared with last week and an increase of 0.1924 million tons compared with the same period last year. As of August 22nd, the total coke inventory was 8.5546 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.58% [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The coke inventory in 18 ports was 2.6866 million tons, an increase of 400 tons. The inventory in 247 steel mills was 6.1007 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons [40]. 3.4 Fundamental Data Chart - **Export**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 158,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 1.6%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [44]. - **Real Estate**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of August 24th, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.6125 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 26.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.17%. The transaction area in first - tier cities was 402,800 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 10.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.97%. The transaction area in second - tier cities was 903,700 square meters, a week - on - week increase of 65.43% and a year - on - year increase of 3.61% [47][52].

1. Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are in a weak downward trend. The spread between the October and January contracts of rebar has stopped falling and risen, and the near - month rebar has turned from weak to strong. The spread between the October and January contracts of hot - rolled coils has continued to strengthen. The difference in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coils is due to the widening of the near - month spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar has fallen from a maximum of 290 to around 250 yuan. In August, the supply of rebar increased while demand decreased, especially the demand dropped significantly, which affected the weakening of steel prices, and the decline of rebar was greater than that of hot - rolled coils. - Last week's data showed that rebar production decreased again, and apparent demand stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar will decline from a high level. From the perspective of total apparent demand, last week's demand data showed signs of bottoming out and rebounding, but it was still at an off - season level. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the peak seasons of September - October. Considering that steel demand has not stalled and coking coal has not resumed production, it is expected that steel prices will remain in a high - level volatile pattern, but recently steel prices are weaker than iron ore and coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3300 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3361 to 3348 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan to 3010 yuan, and the price of slab billets remained unchanged at 3730 yuan. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan to 3345 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 22 yuan to 133 yuan [1]. Production - The daily average pig - iron output increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The output of five major steel products increased by 6.4 to 878.1 tons, with a growth rate of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 5.8 to 214.7 tons, a decrease of 2.6%, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.7 to 325.2 tons, an increase of 3.1% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 25.1 to 1441.0 tons, with a growth rate of 1.8%. Rebar inventory increased by 19.8 to 607.0 tons, a growth rate of 3.4%, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.0 to 361.4 tons, a growth rate of 1.1% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 0.8 to 9.1 tons, with a growth rate of 9.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 22.0 to 853.0 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 4.9 to 194.8 tons, a growth rate of 2.6%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 6.5 to 321.3 tons, a growth rate of 2.1% [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the 2601 contract of iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend. Fundamentally, the global shipment volume of iron ore has declined from a high level on a month - on - month basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. Based on recent shipment data, the average arrival volume in the future will increase periodically. - On the demand side, last week, the profit margin of steel mills was at a relatively high level, the maintenance volume decreased slightly, and pig - iron output increased slightly at a high level and remained at around 240,000 tons per day. It is expected that pig - iron output will decrease this week due to production in Tangshan. From the data of five major steel products, it can be seen that the apparent demand of downstream products has increased on a month - on - month basis recently, which supports steel prices. - In terms of inventory, port inventory has decreased slightly, the port clearance volume has decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the inventory of steel mills' equity ore has decreased on a month - on - month basis. Looking forward, pig - iron output will decline slightly at a high level at the end of August. The market sentiment was overdrawn by the futures price increase on Monday. Currently, the fundamentals are difficult to drive a significant increase, so the price rose on Tuesday and then fell back. After the military parade, steel mills will resume production, and pig - iron output will increase, which will support raw materials. Coupled with the relatively low port inventory compared to the same period last year and the high daily consumption of steel mills, the futures price still has a basis for rebound. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, and an iron ore 1 - 5 positive spread is recommended for arbitrage [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 contract for various iron ore powders has increased significantly. For example, the basis of the 01 contract for PB powder increased from 19.2 to 40.7 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 112.2%. The 5 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 43.0, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 0.5 to 21.0, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 22.0 [3]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of most iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of Jinbuba powder decreased by 2 yuan to 725.0 yuan/ton. The price of the Singapore Exchange's 62% Fe swap decreased by 0.3 to 101.7 dollars/ton, and the price of the Platts 62% Fe decreased by 1.1 to 102.0 dollars/ton [3]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 83.3 to 2393.3 tons, a decrease of 3.4%. The weekly global shipment volume decreased by 90.8 to 3315.8 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3 tons, a decrease of 1.2% [3]. Demand - The weekly average daily pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 8.9 to 325.7 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The national monthly pig - iron output decreased by 110.8 to 7079.7 tons, a decrease of 1.5%, and the national monthly crude - steel output decreased by 352.6 to 7965.8 tons, a decrease of 4.2% [3]. Inventory Changes - The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 46.5 to 13798.68 tons, a decrease of 0.3%. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 70.9 to 9065.5 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0 days, a decrease of 4.8% [3]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints Coke - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot price of coke has risen after the seventh - round price increase was implemented, and the port trade quotation has followed the increase. On the supply side, due to the implementation of the price increase, the coking profit has improved, and the start - up rate of coking enterprises has increased slightly. On the demand side, the pig - iron output from blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and downstream demand still has resilience. It is expected that pig - iron output will decline slightly in August due to production restrictions in Tangshan. In terms of inventory, the inventory of coking plants has started to accumulate, the port inventory has decreased slightly, and the steel - mill inventory has decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to tight supply - demand and logistics factors, downstream steel mills still have a need to replenish inventory, and the arrival of goods is delayed, so they finally accepted the seventh - round price increase of coke. Yesterday, the futures price decreased, and the futures price has a slight premium for wet - quenched coke but is at a discount to the warehouse - receipt cost of dry - quenched coke, and the hedging space has narrowed. Production restrictions in Tangshan are beneficial to finished steel products, and Shandong and Henan also have production - restriction requirements for coking. The short - term supply - demand tightness will be maintained, but as the coking profit improves, the supply of coke will gradually become looser. The futures price has recently followed the decline of coking coal. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Coking Coal - As of yesterday's afternoon close, the coking - coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with recent prices fluctuating sharply. The spot auction price is stable to weak, and the Mongolian - coal quotation has decreased slightly. On the supply side, due to recent mine accidents and coal - mine production - suspension rectifications, the coal - mine start - up rate has decreased slightly on a month - on - month basis, and shipments have slowed down. Coal mines are selling at a reduced profit, the market supply - demand situation has eased, some coal mines have started to accumulate inventory, and the price of imported Mongolian coal has followed the decline of futures. Due to the relatively high price, downstream users have been cautious about replenishing inventory recently. On the demand side, the start - up rate of coking has increased slightly, the pig - iron output from downstream blast furnaces has fluctuated at a high level, and the downstream demand for inventory replenishment has slowed down. Considering the production restrictions on steel mills in Tangshan before the military parade, pig - iron output will decline periodically at the end of August. In terms of inventory, coal mines, ports, and steel mills have slightly increased their inventory, while coal - washing plants and coking plants have slightly decreased their inventory. The overall inventory has decreased slightly from a medium level. The spot market has stabilized after a slight correction. The approaching delivery of the near - month contract exerts some pressure on the 09 contract, and the far - month valuation still has a premium over the near - month Mongolian - coal warehouse receipt. The mine accident in Fujian and the production - suspension of some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi have triggered expectations of production restrictions, which drove the price increase on Monday, but the spot market is still running weakly and stably, and the price has given back the previous rebound in the past two trading days. For strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended. Pay attention to risks due to increased price fluctuations [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Prices and Spreads - For coke, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1610 to 1601 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.64%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1681 to 1670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.74%. For coking coal, the 09 - contract price decreased from 1031 to 1012 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.9%, and the 01 - contract price decreased from 1161 to 1154 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6% [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The raw - coal output of sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 860.4 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%, and the clean - coal output increased by 3.4 to 442.7 tons, with a growth rate of 0.8% [6]. Demand - The weekly pig - iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.1 to 240.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.0%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 0.1 to 65.5 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1% [6]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 888.6 tons, with a growth rate of 0.1%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.9 to 64.4 tons, a growth rate of 3.04%, the steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 0.2 to 609.6 tons, a decrease of 0.0%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.5 to 214.6 tons, a decrease of 0.24%. The clean - coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 5.7 to 117.6 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%, the coking - plant coking - coal inventory decreased by 10.5 to 966.4 tons, a decrease of 1.1%, and the steel - mill coking - coal inventory increased by 6.5 to 812.3 tons, a growth rate of 0.8% [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong upward trend in coking coal futures indicates a tightening supply-demand balance, with potential for further price increases due to ongoing market dynamics [6] Supply - As of August 7, the average daily coking coal production from independent coking plants was 651,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.3% [3] - The average daily coking coal production from 247 steel mills was 468,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%, leading to a total production of 1,119,000 tons per day, which is a week-on-week increase of 0.1% [3] Demand - As of August 7, the average daily pig iron output was 2,403,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons week-on-week [4] - The blast furnace operating rate was 83.75%, an increase of 0.29% week-on-week [4] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.09%, a decrease of 0.15% week-on-week [4] - The profitability rate for steel mills was 68.41%, an increase of 3.03% week-on-week [4] Inventory - As of August 7, the total coking coal inventory was 9.626 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 86,000 tons [5] - The inventory at independent coking plants was 697,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 39,000 tons [5] - The inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.193 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 74,000 tons [5] - Port inventory was 2.736 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 27,000 tons [5] Price Trends - As of August 12, coking coal futures showed strong upward movement, with the near-month 2509 contract rising by 69.5 (+4.19%) to 1,730.0 and the main 2601 contract rising by 78.0 (+4.50%) to 1,812.0 [1] - The fifth round of price increases for coking coal was implemented on August 4, with a range of 50-55 yuan/ton, and the sixth round initiated on August 8 [1][6] - Current prices for premium wet quenching metallurgical coke are reported at 1,290 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke at 1,530 yuan/ton after the recent price adjustments [6] Market Outlook - The supply side is constrained due to slower-than-expected coal mine restarts, while demand remains supported by downstream needs despite a slight decrease in pig iron production [6] - The overall inventory levels are moderate, with active destocking at coking plants and steel mills, while port inventories have slightly increased [6] - The market anticipates further price increases for coking coal due to tight supply-demand conditions and proactive restocking by downstream steel mills [6]

消息面 8月11日河北焦炭第六轮涨价暂未落地。邯郸准一干熄出厂现汇价格为1505-1525元/吨，强二1485元/ 吨。 印尼矿业部：1至6月煤炭出口量达2.38亿吨。2025年煤炭产量目标为7.397亿吨。 总体来看，连续提涨后焦炭产量有所回升，而市场仍偏紧张，六轮提涨开启。钢厂对六轮提涨有所抵 触，落地有一定难度，但原料端价格仍持高位，预计盘面短期有所支撑。 中辉期货： 焦炭现货已有五轮提涨，焦企利润边际有所改善，绝对水平仍然有限，生产积极性一般。焦炭供需总体 相对平衡，产量及库存偏稳运行，变化不大。近期煤炭限产减产等消息再次提振市场情绪，短期高位波 动。【1740，1790】。 8月8日，大商所焦炭期货仓单800手，环比上个交易日持平。 机构观点 宁证期货： ...

Group 1: Market Overview - As of August 6, the price of coking coal in Tangshan, Hebei reached 1645 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan/ton, representing a rise of over 20% [1] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal demand is expected to decline by less than 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a moderate recovery anticipated in the second half, leading to a projected year-on-year growth of 0.2% for 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Activity - On August 6, Dalian Commodity Exchange saw an increase of 40 contracts in coking coal futures, totaling 800 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 3: Institutional Insights - Guosen Futures noted that the increase in coking coal spot prices has led to a slight improvement in profitability for coking enterprises, with expectations of a small rebound in production and overall supply remaining relatively stable. Demand from steel mills is still acceptable despite a slight decrease in iron water output [3] - Shanghai Zhongti Futures indicated that while coking coal is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, the pace of price increases may slow down, and there are concerns about whether iron production will continue to impact coking coal demand negatively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal and coke futures indicate a potential for price increases, driven by supply constraints and demand stability, with expectations for further price hikes in the near future [6] Supply - As of July 31, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 648,000 tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.2%. The average daily production from 247 steel mills was 470,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.2%, resulting in a total production of 1,118,000 tons per day, which remained stable week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2,407,100 tons, down by 15,200 tons compared to the previous period. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46%, unchanged from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate for blast furnace ironmaking was 90.24%, a decrease of 0.57%. The profitability rate for steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73% [4] Inventory - As of July 31, the total inventory of coke was 9.712 million tons, an increase of 0.8% week-on-week. The inventory at independent coking enterprises was 736,000 tons, down by 6.5%, while the inventory at 247 steel mills was 6.267 million tons, down by 13.3%. Port inventory was 2.709 million tons, up by 20.6% [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke nationwide was -45 yuan. In Shanxi, the average profit was -32 yuan per ton, while in Shandong, it was 18 yuan per ton. Inner Mongolia reported an average loss of 105 yuan per ton, and Hebei had an average profit of 13 yuan per ton [2] Market Outlook - The fifth round of price increases for coke has been implemented, with an increase of 50 to 55 yuan per ton. The price for premium dry coke is now 1,475 yuan per ton, and further price increases are anticipated. Supply recovery from coal mines has not met expectations, and while coking limits have been lifted, production is constrained due to losses. Downstream demand remains supportive, with expectations for a slight decline in pig iron production in August [6]

3. 7月28日，邢台地区部分钢厂对湿熄焦炭上调50元/吨、干熄焦炭上调55元/吨，2025年7月29日零点执 行。 1. 7月27日，多地主流焦化厂发函对焦炭价格提涨：计划7月28日起，捣固湿熄焦上调50元/吨，捣固干 熄焦上调55元/吨。这是国内焦炭市场本轮第四次提涨。 2. 7月28日，唐山市场主流钢厂计划对湿熄焦炭价格上调50元/吨、干熄焦上调55元/吨，2025年7月29日 零点执行。 金十期货整理 | 焦炭第4轮提涨开启，焦煤跌势会否延续？ ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: With the second round of coke price increase implemented, coke enterprises' profits continue to recover, and their enthusiasm for purchasing coking coal is high. Currently, it is still in the replenishment cycle, which supports the price of raw coal. Additionally, the third round of coke price increase has been initiated, so there is an upward expectation for coking coal in the short - term. It is expected that the short - term price of coking coal may run strongly [2]. - **Coke**: Although the second round of coke price increase has been fully implemented, due to the continuous strengthening of raw coking coal prices, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state. Constrained by factors such as raw material supply shortage, the supply of coke shows a contraction trend. The high - level pig iron production of downstream steel mills and the continuous release of replenishment demand support the coke price. It is expected that coke may continue to run strongly in the short - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Coal enterprises' production is stable, but there is an expectation of supply tightening. The market sentiment is boosted, and some coke enterprises with low raw coal inventories are actively replenishing, driving up the coal price [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1150, with a basis of - 48.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1902.8 tons, an increase of 45.9 tons from last week [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [2]. - **Expectation**: The price is expected to run strongly in the short - term [2]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After the second round of price increase, some coke enterprises are still in a loss state due to high raw material costs and supply shortages [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 1570, with a basis of - 165, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 839.7 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from last week [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, and the short position decreases [5]. - **Expectation**: It is expected to continue to run strongly in the short - term [5]. **Factors Affecting Prices** - **Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. - **Coke** - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and increasing blast furnace operating rate [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [7]. **Prices** - **Imported Coking Coal (July 24, 17:30)**: The prices of various imported coking coals from Russia and Australia are provided, along with their price changes [8]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke (July 24, 17:30)**: The prices and price changes of port metallurgical coke are presented [9]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 312 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week; coke port inventory is 203.1 tons, a decrease of 11.1 tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprises' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 669.5 tons, a decrease of 21.4 tons from last week; coke inventory is 87.3 tons, a decrease of 1.1 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mills' Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 774 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons from last week; coke inventory is 642.8 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week [25]. **Other Indicators** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74%, unchanged from last week [36]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants in the country is - 46 yuan, a decrease of 27 yuan from last week [40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the fluctuations in the futures market for coking coal and coke, highlighting a recent increase followed by a pullback in prices due to inventory pressure and policy expectations [1] - There is an ongoing speculation regarding a second round of price increases for coke, indicating potential future price movements in the market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the need for market participants to closely monitor inventory levels and policy developments, as these factors are critical in shaping future price trends [1] - The discussion suggests that the market is currently in a phase of adjustment, with traders weighing the implications of supply and demand dynamics [1]