钢材日报 钢材价格认为下方受到成本端的支撑，但上方又受到需求逐渐转弱和钢材出口预期可能收紧的压制，钢材价格维持震荡的趋势。 | 螺纹、热卷盘面价格. | | | 螺纹、热卷月差. | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 2025-12-23 | 2025-12-22 | | 螺纹钢01合约收盘价 | 3116 | 3128 | 螺纹01-05月差 | -12 | 2 | | 螺纹钢05合约收盘价 | 3128 | 3126 | 螺纹05-10月差 | -41 | -33 | | 螺纹钢10合约收盘价 | 3169 | 3159 | 螺纹10-01月差 | 53 | 31 | | 热卷01合约收盘价 | 3280 | 3282 | 热卷01-05月差 | -1 | 5 | | 热卷05合约收盘价 | 3281 | 3277 | 热卷05-10月差 | -14 | -15 | | 热卷10合约收盘价 | 3295 | 3292 | 热卷10-01月差 | 15 | 10 | 螺纹盘面价格. source ...

2025 年 12月 07 日 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 上周(12.01-12.05),美豆期价跌势为主,因为美国财政部长斯科特 ·贝森特表示"中方采购美豆 1200万吨的时间从今年年底延长至明年２月底"。此外,中方采购美豆数量没有超预期利多,对美豆激励 作用不大。从周 K 线角度 22月5日当周,美豆主力 01月合约周跌幅2.81%,美豆粕主力 01月合约周 跌幅 3.52%。 3 上周(12.01-12.05),国内豆粕期价冲高回落,豆一期价偏弱。豆粕方面,美豆期价偏弱、市场缺 乏上涨动能,豆粕盘面价格顺势回落。豆一方面,现货稳中偏强,期货偏弱可能受到她储传言影响。从周 K 线角度,12月5日当周,豆粕主力 m2605 合约周跌幅 0.84%,豆一主力 a2601 合约周跌幅 0.8%。(上 述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周(12.01-12.05),国际大豆市场主要基本面情况:1)中方继续采购美豆:事件本身利多、但低 于预期,对美豆激励有限。据USDA新闻讯,12月5日中国采购美豆 46.2万吨(2025/26年度交货)。2) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of logs has been adjusted downward, with the prices of various specifications generally dropping by 10 - 20 yuan per cubic meter. The arrival volume at ports on the supply side continues to rise, and the port inventory is higher than in the past two years. Although the outbound volume remains resilient, it will face pressure in the future. Currently, the futures price is at a relatively low level, and cost support limits the downside. Overall, the reality of the 01 contract is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. The futures market is expected to run weakly [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures and Spot Prices - On November 28th, the prices of log futures contracts LG2601, LG2605 remained unchanged, while LG2603 increased by 2.0 yuan to 776.5 yuan, with a gain of 0.26%. The 01 - 03 spread decreased by 2.0 to -11.5, and the 03 - contract basis decreased by 2.0 to -26.5. The prices of various types of spot logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged [2]. - The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the external market also remained unchanged on November 28th compared to previous dates [2]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 28th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.071 yuan, and the import theoretical cost was 806.36 yuan, a decrease of 0.28 yuan from the previous day, with a change of 0% [2]. Supply: Monthly - In October, the port shipping volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared to September. The number of ships at the port (New Zealand → China, Japan, South Korea) was 54, an increase of 8 or 17.39% compared to the previous period [2]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 21st, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 303 million cubic meters, an increase of 8 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The inventory in Shandong was 195.4 million cubic meters, an increase of 11.1 million cubic meters; the inventory in Jiangsu was 83.18 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.5 million cubic meters [2][3]. Demand: Daily Average Outbound Volume (Weekly) - As of November 21st, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.44 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.12 million cubic meters compared to the previous week. The outbound volume in Shandong was 3.59 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters; the outbound volume in Jiangsu was 2.36 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.08 million cubic meters [2][3]. Forecast of Arrival at Ports - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a decrease of 7 compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20.1 million cubic meters compared to the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals futures and spot prices, and container shipping industry indices. These data provide insights into market trends and price movements of different financial instruments. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price Differences**: On December 1, 2025, the IF spot - futures spread was -20.86, the IC spot - futures spread was -57.35, and the IM spot - futures spread was 73.41. There were also various inter - period spreads and cross - product ratios presented, such as the IC/IF ratio at 1.5478 [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: As of November 28, 2025, the IRR of some bonds had certain changes. For example, the TF basis was 1.5719, the T basis was 1.4880, and the TL basis was 1.8420. There were also inter - period spreads and cross - product spreads among different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures and Spot - **Price Changes**: On November 28, 2025, domestic futures prices of precious metals like AU2602 increased by 0.71% to 953.92 yuan/gram, AG2602 rose by 1.61% to 12727 yuan/kilogram. In the foreign market, COMEX gold increased by 1.44% to 4256.40 dollars/ounce. There were also data on spot prices, basis, and price ratios [3]. Container Shipping Industry - **Index Movements**: As of November 24, 2025, the SCFIS (European route) increased by 20.75% to 1639.37 points, while the SCFIS (US West route) decreased by 10.54% to 1107.85 points. There were also data on shipping rates, futures prices, and fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply and port - related indicators [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The log futures are currently in a low - level oscillation. Last week, the spot price was adjusted downward. The supply side has a continuous increase in arrivals, and inventory accumulation is putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remains resilient. The valuation of the futures contract is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices forms a certain support for import costs. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 25, the prices of log 2601, log 2603, and log 2605 were 764.5, 777.0, and 792.0 respectively, with decreases of - 0.46%, - 0.26%, and - 0.38% compared to November 24 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on November 25 compared to November 24, with a 0.00% change [2]. - **Cost**: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 25 was 7.094 yuan, a decrease of 0.01 yuan compared to November 24, and the import theoretical cost was 808.91 yuan, a decrease of 1.28 yuan [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase compared to September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, a 17.39% increase compared to the previous period [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, an 8 - million - cubic - meter increase compared to November 14, with a 2.71% increase. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also had corresponding changes [2][3]. Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China decreased by 0.12 million cubic meters from November 14 to November 21, a 2% decrease. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [3]. Forecast - From November 24 to November 30, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 6, a 54% week - on - week decrease, and the arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, a 48% week - on - week decrease [3].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Last week, the log futures remained in a low - level oscillation, and the spot price decreased. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, inventory accumulated, and the market was under significant pressure. Demand continued to show resilience. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. Overall, in the context of a weak fundamental situation, the log futures are expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3][4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 24th, compared with November 21st, the price of log 2601 was 768.0, down 0.5 or - 0.07%; log 2603 was 779.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%; log 2605 was 795.0, up 1.5 or 0.19%. The 01 - 03 spread was - 11.0, down 2.0; the 01 - 05 spread was - 27.0, down 2.0; the 03 - contract basis was - 29.0, down 1.5; the 01 - contract basis was - 18.0, up 0.5 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on November 24th compared with November 21st. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2]. - **Import Cost**: On November 24th, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.106, down 0.01 or 0% compared with November 23rd; the import theoretical cost was 810.19, down 0.83 or 0% [2]. Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, up 24.7 million cubic meters or 13.99% compared with September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54.0, up 8.0 or 17.39% [2]. - **Inventory**: As of November 21st, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 303 million cubic meters, up 8 million cubic meters or 2.71% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 206.5 million cubic meters, up 11.1 million cubic meters or 5.68%; in Jiangsu, it was 83.18 million cubic meters, down 0.5 million cubic meters or - 0.57% [2][3]. Demand - As of November 21st, the daily average出库 volume of logs in China was 6.44 million cubic meters, down 0.12 million cubic meters or - 2% compared with November 14th. In Shandong, it was 3.59 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters; in Jiangsu, it was 2.36 million cubic meters, down 0.08 million cubic meters [3]. Forecast of Arrivals - From November 24th to November 30th, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 6, 7 less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 54%; the total arrival volume was about 21.7 million cubic meters, 20.1 million cubic meters less than last week, a week - on - week decrease of 48% [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Last week, log futures maintained a low - level oscillation, and spot prices declined. The supply side saw a continuous increase in arrivals, putting significant pressure on the market. Demand remained resilient. The current valuation of the futures was relatively low, and the obvious inversion of domestic and foreign prices provided some support for import costs, limiting the downward space of the futures. In general, under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the log futures market is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures and Spot Prices - On November 21st, the main LG2601 contract of log futures closed at 768.5 yuan per cubic meter, down 3.5 yuan per cubic meter. The prices of some other specifications of radiata pine logs decreased, while the prices of the main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. For example, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was also 750 yuan per cubic meter [2][3] Import Cost - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on November 21st was 7.113 yuan, and the import theoretical cost (calculated with a 15% over - length) was 811.02 yuan, showing little change compared with the previous day [2] Supply - In October, the port shipment volume was 201.3 million cubic meters, a 13.99% increase from September. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 17.39% to 54. From November 17th - 23rd, 2025, the pre - arrival of New Zealand logs at 13 Chinese ports was 13 ships, a 30% increase from the previous week, and the arrival volume was about 46.5 million cubic meters, a 48% increase [2][3] Inventory - As of November 14th, the total inventory of domestic softwood logs was 295 million cubic meters, a 0.68% increase from the previous week. Shandong's inventory increased by 2.04% to 195.4 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's inventory increased by 1.46% [2][3] Demand - As of November 14th, the daily average log out - bound volume was 6.56 million cubic meters, a 1% decrease from the previous week. Demand decreased month - on - month [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and rise after opening low. In November, the industrial silicon market still faces inventory accumulation pressure. Although supply may decline slightly and demand may remain stable, the increase in supply in the spot market may lead to inventory accumulation and put pressure on spot prices. However, there is cost - side support. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying on dips when the price drops to around 8500 yuan/ton [1]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices fluctuate and decline. Currently, futures are at a premium to the spot average. In November, supply pressure decreases, but demand also drops. The overall supply - demand is weak, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. Futures can be bought on dips near the lower edge of the range; options can sell put options around 50000 to earn premiums; the equity side can buy photovoltaic ETFs, new energy ETFs, or related stocks [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are weakly volatile, with low demand and obvious excess. The market is under pressure. In the medium - term, downstream demand will maintain the previous rigid - demand pattern. The supply - demand pattern is still bearish, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered. For glass, the news of production line shutdown in Shahe has a short - term emotional impact on the market, but in the long - term, there will be production line restarts, which will put pressure on supply. The deep - processing orders are seasonally weak, and the low - e开工率 is low. In November, there is still some peak - season demand expectation. Pay attention to the demand performance after price cuts. In the long - term, the glass industry needs capacity clearance. Short - term long - buying opportunities on rebounds can be grasped [4]. Logs - Log futures fluctuate. The main benchmark delivery product spot prices are unchanged. Last week, inventory increased slightly, and demand decreased slightly. The supply of arriving ships is increasing. The market is under pressure, but the price difference between domestic and foreign markets provides some support. Log futures are expected to maintain a weak - volatile trend [5]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, cost - side supports rubber prices due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. In the long - term, there is an expectation of increased supply. Demand is weak at the beginning of the month, and the replacement demand for all - steel tires in the north will further weaken. Dark - colored rubber has shown an inventory accumulation inflection point, and rubber prices may decline further. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if not, the price may run around 15000 - 15500 [7]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9450 yuan/ton on November 3 compared to October 31. The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 11.43%. The basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 20.00%. The price of Xinjiang 99 - year industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8800 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decline of 8.00% [1]. Inter - month Spreads - The spread of 2511 - 2512 decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.33%; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 5 yuan/ton, a decline of 16.67%; the spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased by 15 yuan/ton, a decline of 100.00%; the spread of 2603 - 2604 increased by 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 250.00% [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production increased by 3.14 million tons, a growth of 7.46%; Xinjiang's production increased by 3.24 million tons, a growth of 15.94%; Yunnan's production decreased by 0.57 million tons, a decline of 9.60%; Sichuan's production decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 1.91%. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 0.06 million tons, a decline of 0.29%; polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 4.60 million tons, a growth of 7.48%; industrial silicon exports decreased by 0.64 million tons, a decline of 8.36% [1]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 0.03 million tons, a decline of 0.28%; Yunnan's increased by 0.05 million tons, a growth of 1.47%; social inventory decreased by 0.10 million tons, a decline of 0.18%; warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by 0.55 million tons, a decline of 2.31%; non - warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.45 million tons [1]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 52250 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 50500 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 345 yuan/kg, a growth of 8.29% [2]. Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 345 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.61%; the spread of the current month - the first - continuous contract decreased by 140 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.62%; the spread of the first - continuous - the second - continuous contract decreased by 60 yuan/ton, a decline of 109.09%; the spread of the second - continuous - the third - continuous contract decreased by 160 yuan/ton, a decline of 84.21% [2]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: Silicon wafer production decreased by 0.49 million tons, a decline of 3.33%; polysilicon production decreased by 0.13 million tons, a decline of 4.41%. Monthly: Polysilicon production increased by 0.40 million tons, a growth of 3.08%; imports increased by 0.03 million tons, a growth of 28.46%; exports decreased by 0.08 million tons, a decline of 28.16%; net exports decreased by 0.11 million tons, a decline of 56.83%. Silicon wafer production increased by 1.60 million tons, a growth of 2.71%; imports decreased by 0.01 million tons, a decline of 17.96%; exports remained unchanged; net exports increased by 0.01 million tons, a growth of 1.96%; demand decreased by 1.71 million tons, a decline of 2.79% [2]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory increased by 0.30 million tons, a growth of 1.16%; silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.46 million tons, a growth of 2.49% [2]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - related Prices and Spreads - North China's glass price remained unchanged at 1130 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; glass 2505 increased by 7 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.57%; glass 2509 increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth of 0.15%; the 05 basis decreased by 7 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.86% [4]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - North China's soda ash price remained unchanged at 1300 yuan/ton; East China's decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.80%; soda ash 2505 decreased by 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.98%; soda ash 2509 decreased by 21 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.60%; the 05 basis increased by 26 yuan/ton, an increase of 162.50% [4]. Supply - Soda ash operating rate decreased by 1.72%; weekly production decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 1.71%; float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged; photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased by 750 tons, a decline of 0.84%; the mainstream price of 3.2mm coated glass decreased by 0.5 yuan, a decline of 2.50% [4]. Inventory - Glass factory - warehouse inventory increased by 296.6 million tons, a growth of 4.72%; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.2 million tons, a growth of 2.54%; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons, a decline of 3.18% [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures prices declined. The 11 - 01 spread increased by 2.5 yuan; the 01 contract basis increased by 5.5 yuan. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports remained unchanged [5]. Supply - Port shipments decreased by 24.7 million cubic meters, a decline of 13.99%; the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8, a growth of 17.39%. As of October 31, the national coniferous log inventory increased by 40,000 cubic meters to 2.88 million cubic meters. From November 3 - 9, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports increased by 2, a week - on - week increase of 13%; the arrival volume increased by 77,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [5]. Demand - As of October 31, the daily log出库 volume was 62,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,000 cubic meters compared to last week [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber in Shanghai remained unchanged at 14650 yuan/ton; the whole - latex basis decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.30%; the Thai standard mixed rubber price decreased by 300 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.01%; the non - standard price difference decreased by 310 yuan/ton, a decline of 229.63% [7]. Inter - month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton, a growth of 3.57%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 28.57%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth of 21.43% [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, Thailand's rubber production decreased by 2,000 tons, a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's decreased by 8,500 tons, a decline of 4.30%; India's increased by 5,000 tons, a growth of 11.11%; China's increased by 12,200 tons. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 0.26%; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires decreased by 0.24%. In August, domestic tire production increased by 8.59 million pieces, a growth of 9.10%; in September, tire exports decreased by 671,000 pieces, a decline of 10.65%. In August, natural rubber imports increased by 75,000 tons, a growth of 14.41%; in September, imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased by 80,000 tons, a growth of 12.12% [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded - area inventory increased by 15,439 tons, a growth of 3.57%; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 2,015 tons, a growth of 4.73%; the bonded - warehouse出库 rate in Qingdao decreased by 1.50%; the general - trade入库 rate increased by 1.99%; the general - trade出库 rate increased by 3.11% [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy are expected to experience weak and volatile trends due to sector sentiment and supply - demand disturbances [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents a. Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon ferroalloy futures, SiFe2601 closed at 5500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 151,902 and an open interest of 163,466; SiFe2605 closed at 5566 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan, with a trading volume of 1,745 and an open interest of 7,516. For manganese ferroalloy futures, MnSi2601 closed at 5772 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan, with a trading volume of 218,323 and an open interest of 352,439; MnSi2605 closed at 5816 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan, with a trading volume of 13,655 and an open interest of 39,646 [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon ferroalloy (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton; the price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) was 39.8 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu was 760 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - futures price difference for silicon ferroalloy (spot - 01 futures) was - 250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; for manganese ferroalloy, it was - 112 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The near - far month price difference for silicon ferroalloy (SiFe2601 - 2605) was - 66 yuan/ton, and for manganese ferroalloy (MnSi2601 - 2605) was - 44 yuan/ton. The cross - variety price difference for MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 was 272 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; for MnSi2605 - SiFe2605 was 250 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [1] b. Macro and Industry News - **Product Price Information**: On October 31st, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton (+25), in Gansu 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. The price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5700 - 5750 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1030 - 1050 dollars/ton, and 75 was 1110 - 1130 dollars/ton (-10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton (+50), and the southern quotation was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton [1] - **Production Information**: In October, the production of manganese ferroalloy factories in Ningxia was basically unchanged, with individual factories switching from high - silicon silicon - manganese to 6517 at the end of the month, having little impact on production. The total production of silicon - manganese in Ningxia was about 21.07 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 19.97 million tons. In Inner Mongolia, some factories reduced production or switched production at the end of the month, while some resumed production after the National Day, with overall production still showing a slight increase. The total production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia in October was about 45.48 million tons, of which 6517 production was about 36.53 million tons. In October, there were 77 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in production nationwide, with 249 submerged arc furnaces in operation. The average monthly start - up rate of silicon ferroalloy in October was 50.83%, a slight decrease of 0.05% compared to September. The production was expected to be 48.9 million tons, an increase of 1.02 million tons compared to September, a growth rate of 2.13%, and a decrease of 0.55 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production was 459.6 million tons, an increase of 1.71 million tons compared to the same period last year, a growth rate of 0.37% [1][3] - **Inventory Information**: As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 377.64 million tons, a decrease of 0.65 million tons from the previous period; at Qinzhou Port, it was 47.77 million tons, a decrease of 8.76 million tons; at Caofeidian Port, it was 0 million tons with no inbound or outbound manganese ore this week; at Fangchenggang Port, it was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons. As of October 31st, the total manganese ore inventory was 425.61 million tons, a decrease of 9.81 million tons from the previous period [3] c. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0, and that of manganese ferroalloy is also 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The inventory accumulation trend of alumina continues, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is hard to change in the short term. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment - **Futures Price**: As of 3 p.m. on October 17, the alumina index fell 1.82% to 2809 yuan/ton this week, with positions increasing by 23,000 lots to 458,000 lots. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US negotiations and the high - start and high - inventory pattern of alumina, the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price was 2815 yuan/ton, with a premium of 46 yuan/ton over the 11 - contract. The spread between the first and third contracts closed at - 29 yuan/ton [11][24]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline. The spot prices in Guangxi, Guizhou, Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, and Xinjiang decreased by 35 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, 50 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 40 yuan/ton respectively. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [11][21]. - **Inventory**: The total social inventory of alumina increased by 63,000 tons to 4.639 million tons this week. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, the in - plant inventory of alumina plants, the in - transit inventory, and the port inventory increased by 11,000 tons, 0 tons, 23,000 tons, and 29,000 tons respectively. The total warehouse receipts of SHFE alumina increased by 45,200 tons to 221,300 tons, and the delivery warehouse inventory was 239,600 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week [11][70][73]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is hard to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run stronger, and the current price is approaching the cost line of most manufacturers, so the follow - up production cut expectation is strengthened. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12][13]. 2. Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of alumina in various regions continued to decline this week, with different degrees of decline in different regions. The continuous inventory accumulation put pressure on the spot price [21]. - **Futures Price and Basis**: The alumina index fell this week, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The Shandong spot price had a premium over the 11 - contract, and the spread between the first and third contracts was negative [24]. - **Bauxite Price**: The bauxite prices in various regions remained unchanged this week. After the rainy season in Guinea, the ore shipment increased, and due to profit contraction, alumina enterprises' willingness to lower prices increased. With the high port inventory, the ore price is expected to decline [27]. 3. Supply Side - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Affected by the rainy season and environmental policies, domestic bauxite production decreased [31]. - **Bauxite Import**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The cumulative imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. From different importing countries, imports from Guinea and Australia had different changes [33][35][37]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons, with a total inventory of 52.27 million tons, still at a high level in the past five years. In key regions, the inventory in Shanxi and Henan decreased [40]. - **Alumina Production**: In September 2025, alumina production was 7.746 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.69% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 66.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.82%. The operating capacity in September was 97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.12% and a month - on - month increase of 2.54% [42][45]. - **Alumina Plant Profit**: The alumina spot price declined, and the profit of alumina plants was under pressure. Different regions had different profit situations, with some regions approaching or in a loss state [48]. - **Alumina Import and Export**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import window opened recently, and it is expected that the import volume in September and October will gradually increase, which may further intensify the domestic supply - surplus situation. As of October 17, the Australian FOB price decreased, and the import window was closed [50][52]. - **Overseas Alumina Production**: In September 2025, overseas alumina production was 5.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 46.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.06% [54]. 4. Demand Side - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The cumulative production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [59]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [62]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance The alumina supply - demand balance table shows the situation of supply and demand, import and export, and related data in different months from January to December 2025. The supply and demand situation varies in different months, and there are differences in net exports [65]. 6. Inventory The total social inventory of alumina increased this week, and the warehouse receipts of SHFE and the delivery warehouse inventory also increased. The continuous inventory accumulation shows that the supply in the market is relatively abundant [70][73].