Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with prices likely to trend downward throughout 2025, despite some short-term technical rebounds [1][4][5] Supply Side: Policy-Driven Contraction and Global Divergence - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production reached 43,171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 441.4 million tons, or 1.01% [2] - The market anticipates a 1.5% year-on-year decline in crude steel production for the second half of the year, with total annual production expected to remain below 1 billion tons [2] - Global crude steel production shows structural divergence, with India's output increasing by 8.42% while Germany and Russia saw declines of 10.34% and 6.09%, respectively [2] Demand Side: Weak Real Estate Data, Slowing Infrastructure and Export Growth - From January to May 2025, China's apparent crude steel consumption was 37,842.45 million tons, down 1,585.91 million tons, or 4.02% year-on-year [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, with new housing starts down 22.8%, negatively impacting demand for construction steel [3] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, and while steel exports increased by 8.2%, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half due to tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [3] Market Outlook: Continued Weakness in Supply and Demand - The steel market is projected to maintain a "dual decline" scenario, with supply constrained by crude steel reduction policies and demand showing only weak recovery [4] - The overall price trend for the year is likely to exhibit an "N" shape, with potential short-term rebounds in Q3 followed by challenges in Q4 due to seasonal demand drops and inventory pressures [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing stable supply and demand, but with weak market demand as temperatures rise. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, steel mill inventory has increased, leading to an overall rise in total inventory levels [3][4]. - Steel prices are under pressure but have shown some signs of rebound due to raw material price increases and good sales of low-priced steel resources. The report suggests that steel prices may continue to operate weakly during the off-season but still have some support at low levels due to low inventory and stable raw material prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 27, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,181 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,514 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,205 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,607 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,371 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.63%, -0.71%, -0.17%, -0.19%, and -0.78% respectively [2][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week [2]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The average daily molten iron production from 247 steel enterprises is 2.42 million tons, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.83% [2][4]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.80 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,300 tons [2]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory is 13.40 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,400 tons. Social inventory decreased by 66,000 tons to 9.07 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 77,400 tons to 4.34 million tons [2][4]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,270 CNY/ton, a decrease of 23 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar is 145 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil is 108 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled coil is -36 CNY/ton [2][4]. 3. Industry Policy - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [4][5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Steel and Related Markets Key Points on Steel Market - Rebar prices have fallen to around 3,000 CNY/ton, alleviating some market pessimism, but increasing divergence between bulls and bears [1] - Since early June, futures have stabilized with a slowing downward slope; steel mills remain profitable due to a significant drop in carbon element costs [1][4] - High temperatures and heavy rainfall have negatively impacted demand, leading to a month-on-month decline in rebar demand, with year-on-year figures continuing to drop [1][4] - The hot-rolled market remains resilient, with downstream manufacturing maintaining high demand levels, although overall manufacturing sentiment is declining [5][6] Real Estate Impact - Real estate investment has decreased significantly, with new construction area down 20% and sales area remaining negative; this has severely impacted market confidence [7] - The expectation is that real estate policies will focus on stability in the second half of 2025, but internal momentum remains weak, and hidden inventory is high [8][9] Infrastructure Investment - Domestic policy support has increased, leading to some improvement in infrastructure investment, but traditional projects are nearing saturation and yield insufficient returns [10][11] - Excluding power-related projects, infrastructure improvement remains limited, with marginal declines noted in May data [11] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing sentiment has gradually declined since the beginning of the year, with May PMI at 49.5, indicating contraction [12] - Manufacturing investment growth remains high at 8.5% year-to-date, but is expected to slow due to low PPI and poor industrial profits [13][14] Steel Exports - From January to May, China exported nearly 50 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with expectations for high export levels to continue despite domestic demand weakness [15][19] - The international trade environment is expected to be affected by policy fluctuations and trade friction risks, particularly with the U.S. [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic steel demand is overall weak, with expectations for continued high export levels; the market remains in a loose supply-demand state [17] - The iron ore supply is expected to be significantly relaxed in the second half of the year, with major mining companies increasing output [20][21] Coal and Coke Markets - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops, with recent rebounds being limited; global economic recession fears are impacting industrial valuations [29] - The coke market is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year due to reduced iron water production and insufficient market support [32] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to experience slight negative growth in 2025, with supply expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year [20][28] - Domestic iron ore production is under pressure, with imports declining significantly due to various factors including weather and trade policies [23][36] Strategic Recommendations - The recommendation is to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies or rebounds, rather than chasing short positions [18] - Monitoring the developments in U.S.-China trade relations and domestic demand stimulus policies is crucial for future market direction [17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the steel and related markets is cautious, with significant challenges posed by weak domestic demand, real estate sector struggles, and external trade pressures. The focus remains on monitoring policy changes and market dynamics to identify potential investment opportunities and risks.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices with some support [1][2] - The demand has weakened due to seasonal factors, and steel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term [2] - The overall valuation of the steel sector is low, with potential for profit recovery and valuation improvement if structural industry issues are resolved [10] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,208 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,544 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,198 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,623 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,421 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.33%, -0.40%, -0.80%, -0.64%, and -0.87% respectively [1] - The total output of the five major products is 8.5885 million tons, a decrease of 215,300 tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4161 million tons, with a slight decrease of 1,900 tons week-on-week [1] 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.58%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate is 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points week-on-week [1] (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.681 million tons, a decrease of 140,700 tons week-on-week [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate has decreased by 90,600 tons, 19,500 tons, 10,400 tons, 2,700 tons, and 17,500 tons respectively [1] (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.5456 million tons, a decrease of 92,500 tons week-on-week [1] - Social inventory decreased by 35,300 tons to 9.2748 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 57,200 tons to 4.2708 million tons [1] (d) Profitability Situation - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,321 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +135 CNY/ton, +60 CNY/ton, and -65 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +36 CNY/ton, +27 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton [1] - 58.44% of sampled steel enterprises are profitable, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices [2][3]. - The current demand situation suggests that inventory may soon reach a turning point, despite the ongoing weak demand [2]. - The industry is expected to maintain a bottoming and fluctuating price trend in the short term due to increased maintenance in steel mills, which may lead to supply contraction [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 6, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,218 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,558 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,224 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,646 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,451 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.05%, +0.08%, +0.10%, -0.12%, and -0.64% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products is 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.418 million tons, down 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate for electric arc furnaces is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week-on-week [1]. (b) Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons, a decrease of 316.2 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate shows week-on-week changes of -196.5 thousand tons, -2.6 thousand tons, -60.1 thousand tons, +13.8 thousand tons, and -70.9 thousand tons respectively [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 15.3 thousand tons to 9.3101 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 2.6 thousand tons to 4.3280 million tons [1]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,362 CNY/ton, down 37 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - The gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +99 CNY/ton, +33 CNY/ton, and -62 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +9 CNY/ton, 0 CNY/ton, and +62 CNY/ton [1]. 3. Industry Policy and Outlook - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to continue its profit recovery, with potential for greater elasticity in profits if supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9][10].

1月—4月份，CSPI平均值为95.00点，同比下降14.47点、降幅为13.22%。 长材、板材价格继续下降，板材降幅大于长材。 截至4月末，CSPI长材指数为95.09点，环比下降1.23点、降幅为1.28%；CSPI板材指数为91.45点，环比 下降1.96点、降幅为2.10%。与上年同期相比，CSPI长材、板材指数分别下降14.31点、13.53点，降幅分 别为13.08%、12.89%。 1月—4月份，CSPI长材指数平均值为97.04点，同比下降14.67点、降幅为13.13%；板材指数平均值为 93.36点，同比下降15.03点、降幅为13.86%。 4月份，在美国关税战持续扰动、原燃料价格延续下行、需求回暖但仍不及预期的影响下，国内钢材市 场价格整体呈现震荡下行运行态势。进入5月份，钢材需求由旺季向淡季转换，钢材价格呈窄幅震荡运 行态势。 主要钢材品种价格继续下降。 国内钢材综合价格指数环比继续下降 据中国钢铁工业协会监测，4月份，中国钢材价格指数(CSPI)平均值为93.25点，环比下降1.42点、降幅 为1.50%；同比下降12.52点、降幅为11.84%。其中，CSPI长材指数平均值为9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron prices are gradually declining, leading to a slight recovery in steel profits. The raw material costs are expected to ease further, which may enhance the profitability of steel companies [5]. - Economic data from January to April shows a continued weakness in the real estate sector, while automotive production maintains year-on-year growth. The potential for crude steel production regulation is increasing amid uncertain external demand and weak domestic recovery [5]. Price Trends - As of May 23, steel prices have decreased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3160 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [3][11]. - The report details specific price changes for various steel products, indicating a general downward trend in prices over the past week [12]. Production and Inventory - As of May 23, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.72 million tons, a rise of 40,900 tons week-on-week. However, the total inventory of these products decreased by 331,000 tons to 9.5954 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is estimated at 2.4713 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes an increase in profits for plate products, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by 0 CNY/ton, +23 CNY/ton, and +69 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - It also suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions on May 20 Futures Contracts - RB2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1,285,345 lots and an open interest of 2,160,329 lots [5] - HC2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 435,507 lots and an open interest of 1,350,873 lots [5] - SS2507 closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a trading volume of 133,035 lots and an open interest of 128,677 lots [5] - I2509 closed at 725 yuan/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 323,225 lots and an open interest of 734,150 lots [5] Black - series Futures Positions - For I2509, the top 20 long positions were 460,413 lots, a decrease of 5,618 lots; the top 20 short positions were 478,665 lots, a decrease of 741 lots; the long - short difference was - 4,877 lots, with a deviation of - 1.04% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On May 20, major iron ore overseas quotes were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9] - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to decline and the D value continuing to rise; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] News and Policy - On May 20, the 5 - year LPR dropped 10 basis points to 3.5%. For a 1 - million - yuan commercial loan with a 30 - year term and equal - principal - plus - interest repayment, the monthly payment will be reduced by 56 yuan, and the total reduction over 30 years will be 20,000 yuan [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal, increase central investment support, and issue the 2025 central budget investment plan for urban renewal by the end of June [10][11] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, with the total shipments from 19 ports rising by 283.6 tons to 2706.1 tons. The 45 - port arrivals decreased again, but overall remained at a medium level. It is expected that the arrivals will remain at a medium - high level in the near future, and iron ore supply will remain loose [12] - Demand: Last week, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly to 244.77 tons, and the output of the five major steel products also declined slightly. However, considering the increasing profitability of enterprises, it is expected that iron ore demand will still be strongly supported in the near future [12] - Inventory: The number of days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and port inventory decreased slightly to 141 million tons, the lowest since mid - March 2024. It is expected that the room for further decline in port inventory is limited [12] Overall Outlook - After the Sino - US Geneva talks, market sentiment was significantly boosted. During the 90 - day suspension period, "rush - to - export" and "rush - to - re - export" phenomena will continue. It is advisable to consider buying hedging or investment strategies on dips [13] - However, the rumor of "crude steel production control" and the long - term nature of the September contract may suppress raw material prices and limit the rebound space of iron ore prices [13] Group 4: Industry News - In May, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [14] - From January to April, the national general public budget revenue was 8061.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The national tax revenue was 6555.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the non - tax revenue was 1506 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [15] - From January to April, the stamp duty was 161.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.9%. The securities trading stamp duty was 53.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.8% [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade ore and PB powder, the spread between low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, etc. [20][21]

Group 1 - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with a long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] - Steel demand has increased on a month-on-month basis, with total inventory decreasing, indicating a recovery from previous accumulation [2] - The average gross profit per ton for rebar and hot-rolled coil has risen, reflecting improved profitability in the industry [3] Group 2 - Domestic steel demand is expected to stabilize gradually, with a reduction in the negative impact from the real estate sector and continued support from infrastructure [4] - Supply-side weaknesses are highlighted, with some steel companies experiencing cash flow losses, leading to potential production cuts in 2024 and 2025 [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed ongoing control of crude steel production, indicating a push for industry consolidation and improved profitability [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential regulatory measures on crude steel production in the second half of the year, indicating a possible shift in industry dynamics [1] - It raises concerns about the demand for iron ore, suggesting that a "demand winter" may be approaching, which could impact pricing and supply chains [1] Group 1: Steel Production Regulation - There is an expectation that regulatory efforts to control crude steel production will intensify in the latter half of the year [1] - The focus on production control may lead to significant changes in the steel market landscape [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Demand - The article suggests that the iron ore market may face a downturn in demand, referred to as a "demand winter" [1] - This potential decline in demand could have broader implications for pricing and the overall health of the iron ore industry [1]