Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices with some support [1][2] - The demand has weakened due to seasonal factors, and steel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term [2] - The overall valuation of the steel sector is low, with potential for profit recovery and valuation improvement if structural industry issues are resolved [10] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,208 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,544 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,198 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,623 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,421 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.33%, -0.40%, -0.80%, -0.64%, and -0.87% respectively [1] - The total output of the five major products is 8.5885 million tons, a decrease of 215,300 tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4161 million tons, with a slight decrease of 1,900 tons week-on-week [1] 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.58%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate is 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points week-on-week [1] (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.681 million tons, a decrease of 140,700 tons week-on-week [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate has decreased by 90,600 tons, 19,500 tons, 10,400 tons, 2,700 tons, and 17,500 tons respectively [1] (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.5456 million tons, a decrease of 92,500 tons week-on-week [1] - Social inventory decreased by 35,300 tons to 9.2748 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 57,200 tons to 4.2708 million tons [1] (d) Profitability Situation - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,321 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +135 CNY/ton, +60 CNY/ton, and -65 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +36 CNY/ton, +27 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton [1] - 58.44% of sampled steel enterprises are profitable, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices [2][3]. - The current demand situation suggests that inventory may soon reach a turning point, despite the ongoing weak demand [2]. - The industry is expected to maintain a bottoming and fluctuating price trend in the short term due to increased maintenance in steel mills, which may lead to supply contraction [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 6, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,218 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,558 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,224 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,646 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,451 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.05%, +0.08%, +0.10%, -0.12%, and -0.64% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products is 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.418 million tons, down 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate for electric arc furnaces is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week-on-week [1]. (b) Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons, a decrease of 316.2 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate shows week-on-week changes of -196.5 thousand tons, -2.6 thousand tons, -60.1 thousand tons, +13.8 thousand tons, and -70.9 thousand tons respectively [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 15.3 thousand tons to 9.3101 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 2.6 thousand tons to 4.3280 million tons [1]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,362 CNY/ton, down 37 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - The gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +99 CNY/ton, +33 CNY/ton, and -62 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +9 CNY/ton, 0 CNY/ton, and +62 CNY/ton [1]. 3. Industry Policy and Outlook - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to continue its profit recovery, with potential for greater elasticity in profits if supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9][10].

1月—4月份，CSPI平均值为95.00点，同比下降14.47点、降幅为13.22%。 长材、板材价格继续下降，板材降幅大于长材。 截至4月末，CSPI长材指数为95.09点，环比下降1.23点、降幅为1.28%；CSPI板材指数为91.45点，环比 下降1.96点、降幅为2.10%。与上年同期相比，CSPI长材、板材指数分别下降14.31点、13.53点，降幅分 别为13.08%、12.89%。 1月—4月份，CSPI长材指数平均值为97.04点，同比下降14.67点、降幅为13.13%；板材指数平均值为 93.36点，同比下降15.03点、降幅为13.86%。 4月份，在美国关税战持续扰动、原燃料价格延续下行、需求回暖但仍不及预期的影响下，国内钢材市 场价格整体呈现震荡下行运行态势。进入5月份，钢材需求由旺季向淡季转换，钢材价格呈窄幅震荡运 行态势。 主要钢材品种价格继续下降。 国内钢材综合价格指数环比继续下降 据中国钢铁工业协会监测，4月份，中国钢材价格指数(CSPI)平均值为93.25点，环比下降1.42点、降幅 为1.50%；同比下降12.52点、降幅为11.84%。其中，CSPI长材指数平均值为9 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron prices are gradually declining, leading to a slight recovery in steel profits. The raw material costs are expected to ease further, which may enhance the profitability of steel companies [5]. - Economic data from January to April shows a continued weakness in the real estate sector, while automotive production maintains year-on-year growth. The potential for crude steel production regulation is increasing amid uncertain external demand and weak domestic recovery [5]. Price Trends - As of May 23, steel prices have decreased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3160 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [3][11]. - The report details specific price changes for various steel products, indicating a general downward trend in prices over the past week [12]. Production and Inventory - As of May 23, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.72 million tons, a rise of 40,900 tons week-on-week. However, the total inventory of these products decreased by 331,000 tons to 9.5954 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is estimated at 2.4713 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes an increase in profits for plate products, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by 0 CNY/ton, +23 CNY/ton, and +69 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - It also suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions on May 20 Futures Contracts - RB2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1,285,345 lots and an open interest of 2,160,329 lots [5] - HC2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 435,507 lots and an open interest of 1,350,873 lots [5] - SS2507 closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a trading volume of 133,035 lots and an open interest of 128,677 lots [5] - I2509 closed at 725 yuan/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 323,225 lots and an open interest of 734,150 lots [5] Black - series Futures Positions - For I2509, the top 20 long positions were 460,413 lots, a decrease of 5,618 lots; the top 20 short positions were 478,665 lots, a decrease of 741 lots; the long - short difference was - 4,877 lots, with a deviation of - 1.04% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On May 20, major iron ore overseas quotes were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9] - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to decline and the D value continuing to rise; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] News and Policy - On May 20, the 5 - year LPR dropped 10 basis points to 3.5%. For a 1 - million - yuan commercial loan with a 30 - year term and equal - principal - plus - interest repayment, the monthly payment will be reduced by 56 yuan, and the total reduction over 30 years will be 20,000 yuan [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal, increase central investment support, and issue the 2025 central budget investment plan for urban renewal by the end of June [10][11] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, with the total shipments from 19 ports rising by 283.6 tons to 2706.1 tons. The 45 - port arrivals decreased again, but overall remained at a medium level. It is expected that the arrivals will remain at a medium - high level in the near future, and iron ore supply will remain loose [12] - Demand: Last week, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly to 244.77 tons, and the output of the five major steel products also declined slightly. However, considering the increasing profitability of enterprises, it is expected that iron ore demand will still be strongly supported in the near future [12] - Inventory: The number of days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and port inventory decreased slightly to 141 million tons, the lowest since mid - March 2024. It is expected that the room for further decline in port inventory is limited [12] Overall Outlook - After the Sino - US Geneva talks, market sentiment was significantly boosted. During the 90 - day suspension period, "rush - to - export" and "rush - to - re - export" phenomena will continue. It is advisable to consider buying hedging or investment strategies on dips [13] - However, the rumor of "crude steel production control" and the long - term nature of the September contract may suppress raw material prices and limit the rebound space of iron ore prices [13] Group 4: Industry News - In May, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [14] - From January to April, the national general public budget revenue was 8061.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The national tax revenue was 6555.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the non - tax revenue was 1506 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [15] - From January to April, the stamp duty was 161.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.9%. The securities trading stamp duty was 53.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.8% [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade ore and PB powder, the spread between low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, etc. [20][21]

Group 1 - The steel industry maintains an "overweight" rating, with a long-term trend towards increased industry concentration and high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [1] - Steel demand has increased on a month-on-month basis, with total inventory decreasing, indicating a recovery from previous accumulation [2] - The average gross profit per ton for rebar and hot-rolled coil has risen, reflecting improved profitability in the industry [3] Group 2 - Domestic steel demand is expected to stabilize gradually, with a reduction in the negative impact from the real estate sector and continued support from infrastructure [4] - Supply-side weaknesses are highlighted, with some steel companies experiencing cash flow losses, leading to potential production cuts in 2024 and 2025 [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission has proposed ongoing control of crude steel production, indicating a push for industry consolidation and improved profitability [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential regulatory measures on crude steel production in the second half of the year, indicating a possible shift in industry dynamics [1] - It raises concerns about the demand for iron ore, suggesting that a "demand winter" may be approaching, which could impact pricing and supply chains [1] Group 1: Steel Production Regulation - There is an expectation that regulatory efforts to control crude steel production will intensify in the latter half of the year [1] - The focus on production control may lead to significant changes in the steel market landscape [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Demand - The article suggests that the iron ore market may face a downturn in demand, referred to as a "demand winter" [1] - This potential decline in demand could have broader implications for pricing and the overall health of the iron ore industry [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel industry, indicating a recovery in both macro expectations and fundamentals, with steel prices expected to rebound [1]. Core Viewpoints - The supply side has started to decline from high levels, while foreign trade expectations have improved, leading to an increase in steel prices. The five major steel product prices have shown weekly increases, with rebar at 3,330 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,657 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,320 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,767 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,539 CNY/ton [1][2]. - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies has decreased to 2.4477 million tons, indicating a slight reduction in supply. Meanwhile, the total steel inventory has dropped by 454,100 tons to 14.3066 million tons, with social inventory decreasing by 393,700 tons [1][2]. - Demand has shown resilience, with total consumption of the five major steel products rising to 9.1376 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 685,600 tons [1][2]. Summary by Sections Production Data - The average daily pig iron output from 247 steel companies is 2.4477 million tons, down 0.87% week-on-week. The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 91.76%, a decrease of 0.33 percentage points [1][2]. - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate has increased to 56.57%, up 1.49 percentage points week-on-week [1][2]. Consumption Data - The apparent consumption of rebar increased by 463,900 tons, while hot-rolled coil consumption rose by 200,000 tons. However, cold-rolled coil consumption saw a slight decline of 5,100 tons [1][2]. Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory stands at 14.3066 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 454,100 tons. Social inventory has decreased to 9.9367 million tons, while steel mill inventory is at 4.3699 million tons [1][2]. Profitability - The average pig iron cost for 114 steel mills is 2,412 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease of 1 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for rebar is 103 CNY, for hot-rolled coil is 31 CNY, and for cold-rolled coil is -44 CNY, indicating a recovery in profitability [1][2][3].

目录 瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 焦炭市场周报 商品市场情绪回暖，钢厂提降压制价格 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 1. 宏观方面，国家相关部委正在积极部署和推进全国粗钢产量调控工作，工业和信息化部正在加紧修订《钢铁行业产能置换实施 办法》，目前已形成初稿；央行降低存款准备金率0.5个百分点，预计将向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元；自5月8日起，个人 住房公积金贷款利率下调0.25个百分点。 2. 海外方面，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.25%至4.50%之间，符合市场预期；特朗普和英国首相斯塔默宣布达 成一项有限双边贸易协议，其中英国将购买价值100亿美元的波音飞机。 3. 供需方面，短期供应弹性好于焦煤，铁水产量上升空间有限。利润方面，本期全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利7元/吨，钢厂 提出节后焦炭首轮降价，谨防关税达成的乐观情绪消退，煤炭价格重新回落，二三季度淡季来临后，弱现实仍然是主要矛盾之 一。 4. 技术方面，焦炭主力周K趋势：周K线处于60日 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that coke futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 1444.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 2.04% [1] - The national independent coke enterprises' capacity utilization rate is at 75.23%, an increase of 0.18%, while the average daily coke production is 53.63 million tons, up by 0.13 million tons [2] - The total inventory of coking coal is 752.56 million tons, down by 22.61 million tons, with available days of coking coal at 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.34 days [2] Group 2 - China Shenhua reported a coal sales volume of 35.6 million tons in April, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, and a commodity coal output of 27.3 million tons, down by 3.9% [2] - The total power generation in April saw a year-on-year decline of 9.9%, while total electricity sales dropped by 9.5% [2] - Steel mills are planning to reduce coke prices by 50-55 yuan/ton, with the current ex-factory price of Shanxi premium dry coke ranging from 1430 to 1500 yuan/ton as of May 14 [2] Group 3 - The supply side is experiencing intensified competition between coke and steel, leading to a reduction in coke prices and a slight decrease in profit margins for coke enterprises [3] - Demand from steel mills is weakening due to reduced profitability, resulting in a slowdown in purchasing activity [3] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is reported at 7 yuan/ton, with expectations of a short-term price correction following the initial price drop [3]