来源：滚动播报 美联储古尔斯比：低招聘、低裁员带来的不确定性多于经济放缓。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current price of spot gold is trading at $4267.29 per ounce, showing a slight decline after reaching around $4240 during the Asian trading session on Thursday [1][7] - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, the lowest level in three years, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1][7] - The ongoing interest rate cuts are expected to provide medium-term support for gold prices, although geopolitical tensions may hinder a strong upward trend [1][2][8] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold has successfully broken through previous upward ranges and is currently above the $4200 mark, indicating a strong bullish trend [2][8] - The daily chart shows a series of upward movements, with MACD indicators indicating expanding positive momentum and RSI remaining in a strong zone without reaching extreme overbought levels [2][8] - Short-term resistance levels are identified between $4331 and $4381, while support is focused around the $4200 level [3][9] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - As of December 12, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $57.93 per barrel, with Brent crude oil at $61.28 per barrel, both experiencing declines due to geopolitical changes and excess fuel inventories in the U.S. [4][10] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an increase of approximately 2.5 million barrels in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating a surplus in the fuel market [4][10] - The potential for a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could lead to an increase in Russian oil supply returning to the global market, impacting oil prices [4][10] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a secondary oscillation pattern, with prices testing the strong support level around $56 [5][11] - Short-term trends are showing a downward direction, with MACD indicating a weakening of bearish momentum [5][11] - The recommended trading strategy for oil suggests focusing on buying on dips while considering selling on rebounds, with key resistance levels at $59.5 to $60.5 and support at $57.0 to $56.0 [5][11]

当前华尔街普遍预测下周美联储降息25个基点，摩根士丹利、摩根大通和美银本周均转向预期降息。美银策略师Hartnett警告，过度鸽派的降息信号可 能传递错误信息，暗示经济放缓程度大于市场预期，可能引发长期国债抛售，进而波及股市。 美银策略师警告，美联储过于谨慎的经济展望可能威胁年末股市反弹行情。标普500指数目前距离历史高点仅约0.5%，但如果美联储在下周会议上释放 过度鸽派信号，可能暗示经济放缓幅度超出预期，从而引发市场抛售。 12月5日，据彭博报道，美银策略师Michael Hartnett在报告中明确指出，" 唯一能够阻止圣诞老人行情的因素，就是鸽派降息导致长期国债遭遇抛售 。"互换市场显示，投资者对12月10日降息25个基点的押注已从一个月前的60%飙升至超90%，交易员已完全消化美联储到2026年9月前降息三次的预 期。 美联储下周决议面临微妙平衡。据彭博调查，多数经济学家预计美联储将降息25个基点以防范劳动力市场急剧恶化风险，但决策层内部对通胀与就业风 险的平衡存在深刻分歧，预计将出现分裂投票。 Hartnett团队建议投资者为政府可能干预经济做准备 ，预计美国政府不会容忍通胀过热或失业率升至5% ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices remain around $4030 per ounce as manufacturing activity shows further weakness, raising concerns about economic slowdown and supporting safe-haven buying [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, below the market expectation of 48.6, indicating an acceleration in manufacturing contraction [3][4]. - Key indicators such as supplier deliveries, new orders, and employment have all shown significant declines, reflecting a weakening manufacturing sector [3][4]. - ISM Manufacturing Survey Committee Chair Susan Spence noted a pattern of alternating improvements among different sub-indices, but overall uncertainty about the economic outlook persists [3]. Detailed Indicator Analysis - The price index increased from 58 to 58.5, indicating slight inflationary pressure in manufacturing [2][3]. - The new orders index dropped from 49.4 to 47.4, signaling a decline in demand [2][3]. - The employment index decreased from 46 to 44, while the production index rose from 48.2 to 51.4, returning to the expansion zone [2][3]. - The supplier deliveries index fell to 49.3, and the inventory index increased to 48.9, with import and export orders generally remaining in contraction but at a slower pace [2][3]. Economic Outlook and Gold Price Implications - Despite some improvements in production activity, companies are generally opting to control labor rather than expand employment, indicating a cautious approach [4]. - Input data related to imports, inventory, and supply chains also show mixed signals, suggesting that the manufacturing sector is still in an adjustment phase with overall economic momentum remaining weak [4]. - Moneta Markets believes that if subsequent data continues to show weakness, gold prices may maintain a strong support structure due to safe-haven demand and expectations of monetary easing [4].

Fundamental Analysis - The spot silver price has slightly declined, currently around 52.90, with market focus on support levels for long positions [1] - Recent U.S. economic indicators show signs of weakness, with retail sales in September growing only 0.2%, below the expected 0.4%, and a significant drop in consumer confidence index to 88.7 from 95.5 [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shows a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][3] Market Sentiment - The dovish shift from the Federal Reserve has led to an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, with expectations for a 25 basis point reduction [3][4] - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials, including calls for further rate cuts due to a weakening job market, have bolstered market confidence [3][4] - The bond market reflects strong expectations for a dovish Fed, with a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and a widening yield curve [4] Technical Analysis - The silver market is currently in a consolidation phase, with significant resistance at 54.3-54.4 and support around 45.5 [5][9] - The MACD indicator shows a potential bullish trend, although market momentum appears to be weakening [5][9] - The current trading strategy suggests positioning for long trades near the support level of 52.00, with a stop loss at 51.60 and a target range of 53.50-53.90 [9]

Group 1 - Two National Guard members were attacked near the White House, leading to a lockdown and President Trump requesting the deployment of hundreds of soldiers to Washington [1] - The Federal Reserve's Beige Book indicates little change in economic activity, with overall consumer spending declining further, increasing the risk of an economic slowdown in the coming months [2] - The UK budget was leaked early, causing confusion, with Chancellor Reeves announcing a tax increase of £26 billion [3] Group 2 - Deutsche Bank and HSBC supported Oracle, resulting in a significant rise in the stock price on Wednesday [4] - Tesla's new Robotaxi App version reveals a data-sharing feature for in-car cameras, suggesting the potential removal of safety drivers, allowing Tesla to access video and audio data for remote customer service [5] - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in December, changing its previous stance of maintaining rates [7] Group 3 - Stellantis and CATL are collaborating to build a factory in Spain [8]

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the AI bubble, economic slowdown, and profit-taking pressures have led to significant volatility in the U.S. stock market, with investors worried about potential future fluctuations [1][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell nearly 2% this week, with a cumulative decline of 3.5% since November [2]. - The Nasdaq Composite, heavily weighted in tech stocks, dropped over 6% in November, marking its largest three-week decline since April [2]. Stock Movements - Momentum stocks faced severe losses, with Robinhood's market value evaporating by about 25% this month, Coinbase's stock plummeting by 30%, and Palantir down approximately 23% [4]. - Goldman Sachs' basket of high-beta momentum stocks fell nearly 15% from its peak, representing the worst week for momentum performance since November 2022 [5]. AI Sector Concerns - Investors are particularly anxious about companies heavily invested in AI, with the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF down about 10% this month, and an ETF tracking the seven tech giants declining approximately 6.6% since the end of October [6]. Nvidia's Earnings Impact - Nvidia's earnings report initially led to a surge in stock prices, but a subsequent sharp decline resulted in a nearly 3% drop to $180.98, marking a 7% intraday decline and dragging the S&P 500 down by about 3% [7]. Private Credit and Crypto Market Influence - The private credit market is gaining attention, with concerns arising from the sudden collapse of First Brands, highlighting the impact of a loose credit environment [10]. - Investors are facing challenges with companies that borrowed at low rates but now must refinance at significantly higher rates [11]. Bitcoin and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's price fell to $80,553, down over 30% from its October peak of $126,000, raising questions about the broader impact of the crypto market on the stock market and economy [11][13]. - The correlation between cryptocurrency and traditional stocks is becoming more pronounced, with forced liquidations in crypto affecting stock sales [14]. Leverage and Year-End Profit-Taking - Market volatility is attributed to high leverage and the impulse for year-end profit-taking, with brokerage account financing reaching a historic high of $1.1 trillion by the end of October [15]. - Over-leveraged market participants are selling tech stocks when forced to liquidate crypto positions, exacerbating market fluctuations [16]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the volatility, some investors remain calm, with the S&P 500 only 4.2% below its all-time high, indicating a wait-and-see approach among those not heavily concentrated in AI or crypto [17].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for December have dramatically reversed, with the probability of a cut falling below 50% in the interest rate swap market, while the options market shows a significant number of bets on a rate cut with 863,000 open SOFR contracts [1][2][4] - There is a notable internal division within the Federal Reserve, with differing opinions among officials: Waller supports a rate cut, Logan opposes it, and Schmid advocates for maintaining the current rates, leading to increased market uncertainty [1][6] - The recent economic data has been inconsistent, with rising unemployment claims and job losses in the private sector indicating a weakening labor market, while core inflation remains sticky, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [2][4][9] Group 2 - The options market's heavy betting on a rate cut contrasts sharply with the warnings from Dallas Fed President Logan, who stated that a cut would be difficult to support unless there is a significant drop in inflation or a collapse in employment [4][6] - The market's reaction to the upcoming economic data, particularly the non-farm payrolls report, is critical; a weak jobs report could bolster dovish sentiments, while strong data could reinforce hawkish views [9] - The current situation reflects a broader market anxiety, with traders employing strategies reminiscent of 2019, anticipating that the Fed may ultimately compromise in response to market expectations [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic growth continued to slow down in October, inflation slightly rebounded, and the growth rate of financial data declined comprehensively. The overall economy still faced pressure. The bond market first rose and then fell, with ultra - long bonds slightly increasing [1][4][10][43]. - The probability of a bond market rebound is higher. The economic stabilization since the fourth quarter of last year mainly came from the central government's leverage increase. Considering the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in the fourth quarter of this year, the government bond financing growth rate is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy will still be under pressure. On the other hand, the central bank resumed treasury bond trading, and investors rushed to get a head - start at the end of the year, with positive investor sentiment [2][3][11][12]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically with the bond market rebound. For the 20 - year China Development Bank bond, the variety spread is expected to continue to compress in the short term [2][3][11][12]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: The bond market first rose and then fell last week, with ultra - long bonds slightly increasing. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly decreased but remained very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread widened [1][4][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: As of November 16, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. The 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically with the bond market rebound [2][11]. - **20 - year China Development Bank Bond**: As of November 16, the spread between the 20 - year China Development Bank bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 7BP, at a historically low position. The variety spread of the 20 - year China Development Bank bond is expected to continue to compress in the short term [3][12]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion. As of October 31, ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years totaled 239,836 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties [13]. - By variety, treasury bonds accounted for 27.0%, local government bonds 67.5%, policy - based financial bonds 1.9%, government agency bonds 1.7%, commercial bank sub - debt 0.4%, corporate bonds 0.4%, enterprise bonds 0.1%, medium - term notes 1.0%, private bonds 0.0%, and directional instruments 0.0% [13]. - By remaining maturity, bonds with a maturity of 14 - 18 years accounted for 25.2%, 18 - 25 years 29.1%, 25 - 35 years 39.8%, and over 35 years 5.9% [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: The issuance volume of ultra - long bonds was large last week (November 10 - 16, 2025), totaling 1,330 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the week before last. By variety, treasury bonds were 270 billion, local government bonds 1,042 billion, and medium - term notes 18 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 293 billion, 20 - year bonds 197 billion, and 30 - year bonds 840 billion [19]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: The announced ultra - long bond issuance plan for this week totals 891 billion, including 811 billion in ultra - long local government bonds and 80 billion in ultra - long commercial bank sub - debt [25]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Ultra - long bonds were actively traded last week, with a trading volume of 8,782 billion, accounting for 10.1% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds slightly decreased. Compared with the week before last, the trading volume decreased by 2,169 billion, and the proportion decreased by 1.9% [28]. - **Yield**: The bond market first rose and then fell last week, with ultra - long bonds slightly increasing. The yields of different types of ultra - long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year treasury bonds changed by - 1BP, - 1BP, - 1BP, and 5BP respectively [43]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The 30 - 10 spread of benchmark treasury bonds was 34BP, unchanged from the week before last, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: The variety spread of ultra - long bonds widened last week, with an absolute level on the low side. The spreads between the 20 - year China Development Bank bond and treasury bond, and between the 20 - year railway bond and treasury bond were 15BP and 20BP respectively, with changes of 0BP and 3BP compared to the week before last, at the 12% and 14% percentiles since 2010 [51]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 116.16 yuan, an increase of 0.18%. The total trading volume was 525,600 lots (- 48,236 lots), and the open interest was 179,300 lots (- 1,250 lots). The trading volume slightly decreased, and the open interest slightly decreased compared to the week before last [56].

Economic Overview - After two years of growth driven by military spending related to the Ukraine war, Russia's economy is now slowing, with declining oil revenues and an increasing budget deficit [1] - The Kremlin is looking to ordinary citizens and small businesses to stabilize its finances [1] Tax Increases - A proposed increase in value-added tax (VAT) from 20% to 22% is expected to generate up to 1 trillion rubles (approximately $12.3 billion) for the state budget, effective from January 1 [2] - The legislation also lowers the VAT collection threshold for businesses from 60 million rubles ($739,000) to 10 million rubles ($123,000) by 2028, targeting tax avoidance schemes [2] Impact on Small Businesses - The new VAT regulations will affect previously exempt businesses, including corner stores and beauty salons, potentially leading to financial strain [3][2] - Concerns have been raised that the requirement for small businesses to collect VAT may lead to closures, resulting in lower budget revenues instead of the intended increase [6] Additional Tax Proposals - The government is considering increasing taxes on various goods, including spirits, wine, beer, cigarettes, and vapes, with specific increases outlined for stronger spirits [4] - Other proposed fee increases include those for renewing driver's licenses and a potential tech tax on digital equipment, which could reach up to 5,000 rubles ($61.50) for high-priced items [4] Public Sentiment - The economic slowdown and tax increases indicate that both President Putin and ordinary Russians will face difficult choices between military spending and consumer welfare [5] - Public reactions in Moscow reflect a mix of dismay and resignation, particularly regarding the impact of higher food prices on poorer regions and low-income individuals [5]