Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's probability of maintaining interest rates in July dropped from 91.7% to 83.5% due to recent dovish comments from Governor Waller, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed regarding interest rate policies [1][3] - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecast for this year down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while increasing inflation expectations, suggesting a complex economic environment [3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a current probability of around 60% for a rate cut in September [5] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt exceeds $30 trillion, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save approximately $300 billion in interest payments annually, but potential inflation could counteract these savings [3] - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and commitment to economic stability, indicating that political pressures are unlikely to alter the Fed's policy direction [4] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamental data and long-term industry trends rather than short-term interest rate fluctuations influenced by political rhetoric [5]

Key Points - The article outlines significant financial data and events to be monitored on June 18, 2025, including the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai and various economic indicators from Canada, the US, and the Eurozone [1]. Group 1: Economic Events - The Lujiazui Forum will be held in Shanghai, which is a key event for financial discussions [1]. - The Bank of Canada will release the minutes from its monetary policy meeting at 01:30 [1]. - The US will report API crude oil inventories for the week ending June 13 at 04:30 [1]. - The UK will release its May Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Price Index (RPI) at 14:00 [1]. - The Eurozone will publish its adjusted current account for April at 16:00, along with the final CPI year-on-year and month-on-month values for May at 17:00 [1]. - The US will report initial jobless claims for the week ending June 14 and new housing starts for May at 20:30 [1]. - The US will also release building permit totals for May at the same time [1]. - EIA crude oil inventories and strategic petroleum reserve data will be published at 22:30 [1]. - The Bank of Canada Governor Macklem will give a speech at 23:15 [1]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections at 02:00 the following day [1]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference at 02:30 [1].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to seek undervalued equity assets under balanced allocation amid economic expectations and market risk preferences, noting a global increase in risk appetite with most stock markets rising [8][9] - It suggests that despite weak growth signals from the US PMI and rising commodity prices, the US CPI showed a mild decline, indicating a stable economic outlook [8][9] - The report recommends positioning in undervalued sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, as domestic equity assets remain favorable in the long term due to improving consumption and technology trends [8][9] Group 2 - The domestic equity market showed a preference for financial, cyclical, consumer, and growth sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 12,325 billion yuan, down from 13,242 billion yuan [11][17] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 20 experienced gains while 11 saw declines, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors leading the gains [11][17] - The report highlights that the market's style shift is influenced by new public fund regulations and the easing of trade tensions, which has affected trading dynamics [11][17] Group 3 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that US stocks outperformed A-shares, while commodities like oil and aluminum saw price increases [11][12] - It indicates that the US Treasury yields rose following a downgrade in the US credit rating by Moody's, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increasing to 3.98% and 4.43%, respectively [12][12] - The report also mentions the strengthening of the offshore yuan against the US dollar, with a 0.42% appreciation noted [12][12]

公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： 5 月 8 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4839 元/吨（-37），常州市场价 4660 元 /吨（-40），主力基差-179 元/吨(+3），广州市场价 4790 元/吨（0）， 杭州市场价 4730 元/吨（-40）。5 月 7 日受中美和谈等消息影响，市场 一度宏观偏暖迹象，工业品冲高；国内出台货币政策等，力度一般。市 场更多交易对经济的担忧，美联储偏鹰。基本面看，长期看 PVC 需求在 地产拖累下持续低迷，出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制，且出口体量总 体占比不大（12%左右）；供应端有不少新投计划，二季度投产压力较大， 且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位，库存高企供应压力较大；基本面需求 不足、产能过剩，供需宽松格局，偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多， 出口以价换量持稳状态，内需季节性恢复，最近库存去化尚可，基本面 驱动有限，宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡，全球经济增速放缓，国内政 策预期不强，PVC 估值偏低，盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、 国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预 期，或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预 ...