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资产配置周报:经济预期与市场风险偏好,均衡配置下寻找权益低估资产-20250518
Donghai Securities· 2025-05-18 14:07
Group 1 - The report emphasizes the need to seek undervalued equity assets under balanced allocation amid economic expectations and market risk preferences, noting a global increase in risk appetite with most stock markets rising [8][9] - It suggests that despite weak growth signals from the US PMI and rising commodity prices, the US CPI showed a mild decline, indicating a stable economic outlook [8][9] - The report recommends positioning in undervalued sectors such as petrochemicals, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, as domestic equity assets remain favorable in the long term due to improving consumption and technology trends [8][9] Group 2 - The domestic equity market showed a preference for financial, cyclical, consumer, and growth sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 12,325 billion yuan, down from 13,242 billion yuan [11][17] - Among the 31 primary industries tracked, 20 experienced gains while 11 saw declines, with beauty care, non-bank financials, and automotive sectors leading the gains [11][17] - The report highlights that the market's style shift is influenced by new public fund regulations and the easing of trade tensions, which has affected trading dynamics [11][17] Group 3 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that US stocks outperformed A-shares, while commodities like oil and aluminum saw price increases [11][12] - It indicates that the US Treasury yields rose following a downgrade in the US credit rating by Moody's, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields increasing to 3.98% and 4.43%, respectively [12][12] - The report also mentions the strengthening of the offshore yuan against the US dollar, with a 0.42% appreciation noted [12][12]
能源化工日报-20250509
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 01:53
公司资质 能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC: 5 月 8 日 PVC 主力 09 合约收盘 4839 元/吨(-37),常州市场价 4660 元 /吨(-40),主力基差-179 元/吨(+3),广州市场价 4790 元/吨(0), 杭州市场价 4730 元/吨(-40)。5 月 7 日受中美和谈等消息影响,市场 一度宏观偏暖迹象,工业品冲高;国内出台货币政策等,力度一般。市 场更多交易对经济的担忧,美联储偏鹰。基本面看,长期看 PVC 需求在 地产拖累下持续低迷,出口受反倾销和 BIS 认证等压制,且出口体量总 体占比不大(12%左右);供应端有不少新投计划,二季度投产压力较大, 且烧碱利润高开工持续维持高位,库存高企供应压力较大;基本面需求 不足、产能过剩,供需宽松格局,偏空配。4 月中旬开始环比有增多, 出口以价换量持稳状态,内需季节性恢复,最近库存去化尚可,基本面 驱动有限,宏观主导。目前海外局势动荡,全球经济增速放缓,国内政 策预期不强,PVC 估值偏低,盘面弱势整理。重点关注关税谈判进展、 国内刺激政策力度。基本面关注出口和检修力度。若国内刺激政策超预 期,或有一定支撑。若贸易摩擦恶化、经济预 ...