Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 1133.04, with a recent price of 1120.74 yuan per gram, reflecting a 4.88% increase, and a high of 1134.46 and a low of 1116.40 [1] - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bullish, as the market is showing signs of upward momentum [1] Group 2 - Former Federal Reserve Governor Walsh, known for prioritizing anti-inflation measures, has criticized the Fed's expanded role in the economy and advocates for a return to traditional functions [3] - Walsh's potential appointment as Fed Chair is unlikely to lead to significant changes in monetary policy, as decisions are heavily reliant on the consensus of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [3] - Walsh and Treasury Secretary Basant advocate for reducing the Fed's market footprint, primarily through accelerated balance sheet reduction, but this approach may create conflicting signals regarding interest rates and balance sheet management [4] Group 3 - The gold market is currently in a clear upward trend, with prices oscillating upwards along the moving average system, indicating a solid bullish foundation [5] - Recent price action suggests a normal consolidation phase after a rapid increase, rather than a trend reversal, with key support levels remaining intact [5] - Resistance is noted in the 1125-1130 range, while support is identified in the 1100-1095 range, with a potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to market reactions to the Federal Reserve's independence concerns and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [1][2] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to speculative market activities, which have amplified the trends of rapid price increases followed by significant declines [1] - The outlook for gold and precious metals remains optimistic for 2026, despite short-term uncertainties surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chairman's hawkish stance [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are in an upward trend, with key support levels at the 5/10-week moving averages, indicating potential for further bullish activity [2] - The MACD histogram shows a decrease in momentum, while the RSI indicates a neutral state, suggesting caution before making new bullish bets on precious metals [2] - A critical support level at approximately $4,819.19 is identified, with potential for deeper corrections if prices close below this level [2]

请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价震荡走高，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国财长贝森特称， | | | | 即使沃什任美联储主席，缩表也不会快速推进，这表明在特朗普政府压力下，美联储政 | | | | 策仍将保持审慎，优先维护金融稳定，而非过早收紧，其表态淡化了市场对沃什偏鹰派 | | | | 的焦虑。另外，美国非农就业数据将于本周五公布，哈塞特暗示数据可能低于预期。库 | | | 铜 | 存方面 LME 库存增加 1025 吨至 184300 吨；Comex 库存增加 1025 吨至 535435 | 吨；SMM | | | 周一统计国内精炼铜社会库存环比上周四下降 0.45 万吨至 33.13 万吨。需求方面，下游 | | | | 陆续房间，采购节奏放缓，社会库存累库。铜价走势与海外金融市场和贵金属表现有一 | | | | 定趋同性，这表明当前运行逻辑仍依赖于金融属性和市场情绪，整体仍以震荡 ...

今日周二(2月10日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于81.80一线上方，今日开盘于83.22美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报82.27美元/盎司，下跌0.95%，最高触及83.75美元/盎司，最低下探80.42美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 花旗策略师表示，美联储主席提名人沃什很可能会采取循序渐进的方式缩减美联储规模达6.6万亿美元 的资产组合，以避免重新引发货币市场紧张。任何重启缩表的尝试都可能再次给规模达12.6万亿美元的 回购市场带来压力。 花旗策略师表示："鉴于去年回购市场经历了剧烈波动，重启QT的门槛相当高。可以推测，FOMC会更 倾向于采取渐进式做法。"不过沃什领导下的美联储仍有多种方式缩减资产规模。 最小阻力路径可能是通过将到期的长期国债转换为短期债务，缩短持仓的加权平均期限；也可能选择将 目前约每月400亿美元的国库券购买规模下调，甚至完全停止；其他选项还包括允许其所持有的抵押贷 款支持证券自然到期。花旗预计，决策者将自4月中旬起把购债规模降至每月约200亿美元，并持续至年 底。 【最新comex白银行 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve and its new chairman nominee, Kevin Walsh, along with the implications for various financial markets and sectors. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Reactions to Walsh's Nomination**: - The nomination of Kevin Walsh has led to significant volatility in precious metals markets, with gold volatility reaching a near 50-year high. This is attributed to his opposition to quantitative easing (QE) and advocacy for balance sheet reduction, which contrasts with current market expectations of dollar depreciation [1][8]. 2. **Walsh's Policy Stance**: - Walsh's monetary policy approach is rooted in monetarism, advocating for reduced intervention by the Federal Reserve in market and fiscal policies. This is expected to strengthen the dollar and steepen the U.S. Treasury yield curve, benefiting bank stocks [1][2]. - He has criticized the Fed's reliance on economic data and forward guidance, suggesting a return to core responsibilities and a reduction in the Fed's power and asset size [1][4]. 3. **Proposed Reforms**: - Walsh has proposed several reforms, including limiting data dependency, reducing the balance sheet size, promoting financial liberalization, supporting digital currency development, and enhancing coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [1][5][10]. 4. **Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook**: - Walsh has expressed concerns over uncontrolled inflation and the Fed's failure to maintain financial stability, particularly highlighted during recent bank failures. He suggests that interest rates may need to be lowered soon due to current negative CPI data indicating high rates [2][11]. 5. **Impact on Financial Markets**: - The anticipated policies under Walsh could lead to a steepening of the yield curve, a stronger dollar, and a rise in bank stocks due to his stance on financial liberalization and potential reduction in capital requirements for banks [8][9]. 6. **AI's Role in Economic Productivity**: - AI investments are noted to significantly enhance U.S. productivity, although job growth remains lagging. Walsh's familiarity with AI technology may bring fresh perspectives to the Fed, potentially improving productivity further [3][12]. 7. **Challenges Facing the Fed**: - The Fed is currently facing internal divisions and challenges related to data accuracy and macroeconomic forecasting, which complicate the decision-making process. Walsh's leadership may address these issues by emphasizing accountability and clearer communication with the public [4][6]. 8. **Global Asset Allocation Trends**: - There is an increasing interest in Chinese assets among Wall Street investors, driven by improved U.S.-China relations and the performance of emerging markets. This shift may lead to capital inflows into China, particularly if Indian markets underperform [3][18]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: - The U.S. economy is currently performing well on a macro level, but micro-level adjustments are necessary due to the disruptive impact of AI on various industries. The transition to an AI-driven economy is expected to continue reshaping traditional sectors [13]. 2. **Future of Inflation and Interest Rates**: - The outlook for inflation suggests a potential long-term deflationary trend, with the Fed likely to focus on service sector prices when determining future interest rate strategies [16]. 3. **Dollar and Yuan Exchange Rate Dynamics**: - The strong dollar policy may be reinforced under Walsh, but the yuan's stability will be more influenced by U.S.-China political relations rather than solely economic factors [17]. 4. **Investment Sentiment in Commodities**: - While gold is expected to remain a strong investment in the medium to long term, the outlook for other commodities like oil is less favorable due to oversupply and pressures from the energy transition [19]. 5. **AI Stock Investment Caution**: - Despite recent declines in AI-related stocks, the demand for AI infrastructure remains robust, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies that balance opportunity with risk management [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to have an oscillating rebound, while silver is predicted to decline from its high level [2][6]. - The decline of the US dollar supports the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][13]. - Due to the losses in secondary lead production, attention should be paid to the lower support levels of lead [2][16]. - Tin is undergoing technical correction [2][19]. - It is recommended to hold a light position in aluminum before the holiday; alumina is expected to rebound from the bottom, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Platinum is in an oscillating consolidation phase, and palladium is trading within a box range [2][26][27]. - Nickel is affected by the exit of funds before the holiday, and the medium - term contradiction lies in Indonesia; in February, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in stainless steel, and the cost support center is moving up [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of gold and silver showed significant increases. For example, the daily increase of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 3.29%, and that of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 10.24%. The trading volumes of both decreased compared to the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of gold and silver in Shanghai and Comex decreased to varying degrees. For example, the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 31,354 kg [5]. - **News**: Before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected [5]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 1.74%. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper decreased, while that of London Copper also decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 3,044 tons, and that of London Copper increased by 1,025 tons [10]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds; the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association considered including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve; Glencore suspended major investment in a Canadian smelter; Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year; Capstone Copper will resume full - scale production at a copper - gold mine in Chile [10][12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Zinc and London Zinc increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 0.47%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc decreased, while that of London Zinc increased [13]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased by 176 tons, and that of London Zinc decreased by 675 tons [13]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; before the release of the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning" about lower - than - expected employment growth [14]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Lead and London Lead increased. The daily increase of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 0.45%. The trading volumes of both decreased [16]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead increased by 4,968 tons, and that of London Lead decreased by 100 tons [16]. - **News**: The Fed may not quickly shrink its balance sheet; Alphabet raised 20 billion US dollars through US dollar bonds and planned to issue 100 - year sterling bonds [17]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of Shanghai Tin and London Tin increased significantly. The daily increase of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 6.61%. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin decreased, and that of London Tin also decreased [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of Shanghai Tin and London Tin decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased by 379 tons, and that of London Tin decreased by 55 tons [20]. - **News**: The decline of US Treasury bonds widened; the memory price soared by up to 90% compared to Q4 2025; Tesla's Tao Lin said there is no specific date for FSD to be launched in China; Wang Yi will attend the first senior officials' meeting of APEC in 2026 [20][22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The trading volumes of aluminum and alumina decreased, while that of cast aluminum alloy increased [23]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the inventories of alumina and cast aluminum alloy also changed [23]. - **News**: The Fed may reach an agreement with the US Treasury to clarify the balance sheet scale and adjust the bond - holding structure; the market expects the US core CPI to rebound in January [24]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of platinum and palladium increased. The daily increase of platinum futures 2606 was 7.72%, and that of palladium futures 2606 was 6.74%. The trading volumes of both decreased [26]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of NYMEX platinum decreased, and the inventory of NYMEX palladium remained unchanged [26]. - **News**: US ships are advised to stay away from Iranian waters; the White House's Hasset predicted a decline in employment; the US Commerce Secretary was involved in a scandal; the EU proposed to include third - country ports in the sanctions against Russia; the UK government's communication director resigned; Alphabet planned to raise about 15 billion US dollars through bond issuance; OpenAI's Altman said ChatGPT's monthly growth rate exceeded 10% [29]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel increased. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased by 2,680, and that of the stainless steel main contract increased by 65. The trading volumes of both decreased [30]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses; China implemented export license management for some steel products; the Indonesian government planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore; the planned nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2026 was significantly reduced; some Indonesian mines faced potential fines for illegal land use; the Indonesian government would adjust the nickel production quota according to industry demand; a nickel - carrying ship sank; the Indonesian government approved the mining work plan and budget for 2026; a Swiss company planned to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala; a Chinese company in Indonesia failed to submit an investment report [30][31][33].

美联储理事米兰表示，美联储的资产负债表需要缩小规模，但这不应排除政策制定者在经济危机期间选 择大规模资产购买的可能性。米兰指出，缩减美联储资产负债表将减少其在金融市场的影响力，并在未 来发生危机时为政策制定者提供更多选择。米兰在周二的一次播客录制中表示："当利率处于零下限且 处于金融危机中期时，扩张资产负债表是正确的举措。但你应该'保持火药干燥'，以备需要采取此类行 动时使用。"尽管米兰表示支持随时间推移缩减资产负债表的计划，但他强调这无法立即完成。米兰 说："在实现这一目标之前，我们在监管流程上还有许多障碍需要跨越。这需要很长时间，我们不能明 天就开始削减。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup strategists suggest that Kevin Warsh, nominated as the Federal Reserve Chair, is likely to gradually reduce the central bank's balance sheet of approximately $6.6 trillion to avoid reigniting tensions in the money market [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - Any resumption of Quantitative Tightening (QT) could pressure the $12.6 trillion repurchase market, which is crucial for banks' short-term borrowing needs [1] - The Federal Reserve paused its balance sheet reduction in December due to significant fluctuations in the repurchase market, indicating a high threshold for restarting QT [1] - Warsh, a former Fed governor, has long advocated for a substantial reduction in the central bank's financial footprint, which expanded significantly during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic [1] Group 2: Potential Strategies Under Warsh's Leadership - Citigroup identifies several "de-leveraging" options under Warsh, with the least resistance path being the rolling of maturing long-term Treasury bonds into short-term debt to lower the weighted average maturity of holdings [2] - Other measures may include reducing the current monthly Treasury bond purchase of $40 billion or allowing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) to mature naturally [2] - The baseline scenario anticipates a reduction in monthly purchases to about $20 billion starting mid-April, continuing throughout the year [2] Group 3: Treasury Issuance and Market Dynamics - The Treasury may welcome foreign demand for Treasury bonds from the Fed, leading to a greater reliance on short-term debt issuance and delaying the increase in long-term bond issuance [3] - Citigroup forecasts that the issuance of long-term bonds may not begin until November 2026, with a risk of further delays until February 2027 [3]

Group 1: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors on metal prices, particularly in a tight supply-demand balance, with monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions being critical influences [1] - Recent adjustments in precious metal prices are attributed to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by disappointing earnings reports from US tech stocks and expectations of a strong dollar and Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1] - China's central bank continued gold purchases in January, and the increase in gold ETF holdings will support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures are impacting copper prices, with expectations of strategic reserves providing some support [2] - The establishment of a "copper concentrate strategic reserve" aims to enhance resource control and mitigate overseas supply disruptions, while AI-driven infrastructure demands are expected to support copper prices [2] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, copper prices are anticipated to stabilize due to strategic premium support [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand weakness, with a decline in processing rates observed [2] - The ISM services PMI in the US returned to expansion, but lower-than-expected ADP employment figures contributed to price fluctuations [2] - Social inventory trends indicate a continued accumulation during the off-season [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and reduced funding, but there is resilience in downstream purchasing as prices decline [2] - Increased activity in the Indonesian tin market and supply recovery in Myanmar may lead to marginally looser supply conditions [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong despite a four-week inventory reduction, with expectations of preemptive battery demand due to changes in export tax policies [3] - The cobalt sector faces high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets to enhance competitive advantages [3] - Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, are rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise due to long-term contracts and supply-demand dynamics, with a notable increase in prices across the industry [3] - The uranium market is seeing long-term contract prices reach a ten-year high, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development [3]

2026.02. 09 本文字数：2689，阅读时长大约5分钟 胡捷（来源：采访对象提供） "左手工具"和"右手工具" 第一财经： 在提名期间沃什展现出"鸽派"立场，但市场认为沃什骨子里是一个"传统鹰派"。沃什获 得华尔街和白宫双重认可，他真实的态度和立场是什么？ 胡捷： 如果简单概括，沃什之所以能同时被两边接纳，是因为他"既是鹰派，又是鸽派"。他的观点 包含了两个维度，既认为美联储不应发行过多的央行货币，又认为利率应该降低，这两种立场分别精 准地触达了相关方的利益诉求。 要理解这两者为何能同时存在，我们需要拆解央行达成"物价稳定"这一核心使命的两套工具。为了 实现通胀目标，央行会密切关注广义货币总量。当央行认为货币总量过剩、存在通胀风险时，通常有 两种调控路径。我们可以形象地称之为"左手工具"和"右手工具"。左手工具是"管自己"，即央行直 接操作资产负债表来发行基础货币；右手工具是"管商行"，即通过利率调节来控制商业银行体系创 造的派生货币，也就是存款。 作者 | 第一财经 冯迪凡、高雅 伴随凯文·沃什接掌美联储主席的日程临近，有两大叙事中的谜团仍需厘清。 其一，沃什是否会坚定降息，还是一个伪装"鸽派"，事 ...