当地时间12月1日，美联储将停止主动缩小资产负债表（也就是"缩表"）。 中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌分析认为，美联储停止"缩表"是出于经济下行压力和货币市场流动性两 方面因素的考虑。 观点速览 美国经济现在实际上有一定的下行压力，停止"缩表"，有助于维护金融市场流动性的稳定性。 在当前来看，美国经济增速放缓的压力是美联储决定停止"缩表"最根本的或最基础性的原因。 美联储主席鲍威尔10月29日在议息会议结束后曾宣布，下调联邦基金利率25个基点，使基础利率维持在 3.75%至4.00%区间，同时自12月1日起将停止"缩表"，即暂停量化紧缩操作。 美联储10月货币政策会议纪要相关内容截图 美联储表示，鉴于有迹象显示货币市场流动性状况已开始趋紧、银行准备金水平下降，其将停止缩减规模 达6.6万亿美元的资产负债表。自12月1日起，每月最多50亿美元的美国国债到期后不进行再投资的操作将 不再被允许，将通过对到期国债进行展期来保持政府债券库存稳定。 什么是"缩表"？ 所谓"缩表"，是指中央银行或金融机构通过减少资产持有量或清偿负债来缩小资产负债表规模的行为。"缩 表"通常表现为央行卖出国债等资产或停止到期资产再投资，导致 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing debate regarding the future leadership of the Federal Reserve, particularly the potential replacement of current Chairman Jerome Powell by Donald Trump, highlights conflicting economic ideologies, especially concerning interest rates and the size of the Fed's balance sheet [1][22]. Group 1: Leadership Change - Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell and is looking to appoint a successor who aligns with his economic views once Powell's term ends [1]. - The selection process for the new Fed chair is influenced by the ongoing discussions about whether to limit the Fed's asset size, which contradicts Trump's preference for low interest rates [3][20]. Group 2: Economic Policies - Trump's focus on low interest rates is aimed at easing government debt servicing and making loans more affordable for consumers [4]. - The Fed's balance sheet, which has exceeded $6 trillion, was expanded through quantitative easing to lower long-term interest rates during economic crises [6][8]. Group 3: Political Opinions - Republican voices have criticized the Fed for injecting too much cash into the financial system, arguing it disrupts market dynamics [10]. - Former Fed Governor Walsh advocates for reducing the Fed's size to lower short-term rates without triggering inflation, resonating with public sentiment against financial institution expansion [12]. Group 4: Future Implications - The debate over the Fed's balance sheet size reflects broader concerns about government spending and wealth inequality, with some arguing that the Fed's actions have exacerbated the wealth gap [23]. - The upcoming leadership decision will significantly impact how the Fed responds to future economic downturns, with a growing influence of the "balance sheet reduction" faction [27][29].

Group 1 - The US dollar index strengthened for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 100 mark for the first time since November 6, with a daily increase of 0.5%, marking the largest single-day gain since September 25 [1] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate decisions, with some advocating for maintaining rates through 2025, while others suggested a potential rate cut in December if economic performance aligns with expectations [1] - Concerns about financial stability were raised, particularly regarding the risk of a disorderly decline in the stock market, leading to a consensus among officials to halt the quantitative tightening (QT) actions [1] Group 2 - The delayed September non-farm employment report is set to be released, with economists predicting an addition of 50,000 jobs and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3% [2] - The dollar index has been on the rise since June, partly due to a rebound in the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index reaching historical highs before a recent pullback in large tech stocks [2] - Market expectations for a cumulative rate cut of 85 basis points by the end of 2026 indicate a divergence regarding the likelihood of a December rate cut, with some analysts predicting a rebound for the dollar in early 2026 [2]

李丹，华尔街见闻 美联储内部的鹰派观点体现在，纪要声明提到，讨论风险管理考量时， 美联储会议纪要显示，上月末的货币政策会议上，决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，认为今年不必 再降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数，一些中间派要视数据而定；对于缩减资产负债表 （缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止；在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担 心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时，与会者对（货币政策）委员会（FOMC）12月会议最有可 能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法。大多数（Most）与会者认为，随着委员会逐步 转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。一些 （Several）与会者评估认为，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济发展符合他们的预期，可 能较为适合12月"进一步降息。"许多（Many）与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年 剩余时间内，可能适合"维持利率不变。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity futures market shows complex trends with different metals, agricultural products, and energy - chemical products having their own supply - demand situations, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on these situations [2][7][8]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market strengthened on Wednesday, but London gold failed to hold above $4100. Fed's internal divergence on December rate - cut, employment report changes, and domestic gold ETF inflows are key factors. Suggest buying at support levels [2]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness is gradually easing. Recommend gradually reducing long positions [2]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Price stabilized yesterday. With improved risk appetite and low rate - cut expectations, and considering the supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum price may maintain oscillatory adjustment after a decline, with improved spot trading but continued reduction of long positions in the main contract [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - demand surplus persists, and the price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [2]. - **Zinc**: Price declined yesterday. Due to supply shortages and demand - side factors, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Price rebounded significantly. With planned production cuts and cost support, long positions can gradually take profits, and short positions should be entered with caution [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Current demand is strong, but long - term demand may decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing highs, or consider selling put options [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: Price rose. Near - month contracts are strong, but it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs due to factors like slow progress of the storage platform [3]. - **Tin**: Price trended strongly. With improved risk appetite and supply - demand situation, it is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Supply - demand is weak, and there is significant structural differentiation. Hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605, and the reference range for RB01 is 3030 - 3080 [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in iron ore 2605, and the reference range for I01 is 760 - 795 [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply - demand is weakening. Hold short positions in coking coal 2605, and the reference range for JM01 is 1110 - 1150 [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans enter an oscillatory phase, and the domestic market is temporarily weak. The medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. - **Corn**: As the supply in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline oscillatory. Hold short positions [7]. - **Oils and Fats**: Enter an oscillatory and slightly strong phase. Pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Sugar**: International sugar price rebounds, and the domestic market will follow the international trend to decline. Short in the futures market and sell call options [7]. - **Cotton**: Temporarily wait and see, with a range - bound strategy of 13300 - 13600 yuan/ton [7]. - **Eggs**: The futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory due to decreased supply pressure and weakening demand [7]. - **Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and the futures price is expected to be weak and oscillatory [8]. - **Apples**: Wait and see due to low inventory and high - quality apple price increases [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term oscillatory, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [8]. - **PVC**: Supply - demand is weak, and it is recommended to short or conduct spread trading [8]. - **PTA**: Take profits on long positions in PX, and short the processing margin of PTA in the long - term [8][9]. - **Glass**: Supply - demand is in a weak balance, and it is recommended to conduct spread trading [9]. - **PP**: Short - term oscillatory and weak, and it is recommended to short at high levels or conduct spread trading in the long - term [9]. - **MEG**: Supply - demand accumulates inventory, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Fundamentally bearish, but with high geopolitical uncertainty, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillatory, with the upside limited by the import window [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Urea**: The futures price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to export news and supply - demand situation [10].

会议纪要显示，上月末的最近一次货币政策会议上，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，支持降息的一方并未在人数上占绝对优势，对于缩减资产负 债表（缩表）的量化紧缩（QT）行动，则几乎完全一致认为应该停止。在金融稳定的风险方面，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 美东时间11月19日周三公布的美联储会议纪要写道： "在讨论货币政策的近期走向时， 与会者对 （货币政策）委员会（FOMC） 12月会议最有可能采取的政策决定表达了截然不同的看法 。大多数（Most）与会者 认为，随着委员会逐步转向更为中性的政策立场，可能适合"进一步降息， "然而，其中一些（several）人暗示，他们未必认为12月会议适合再降息25个基点。 一些（Several） 与会者评估 认为 ，如果在接下来的两次会议之间，经济 发展符合他们的预期， 可能较为适合12月"进一步降息 。" 许多（Many） 与会者表示，根据他们的经济展望，在今年剩余时间内， 可能适合"维持利率不变 。 所有与会者一致认为，货币政策并非一成不变，而是会受到各种最新数据、不断变化的经济前景以及风险平衡的影响。 媒体指出，在美联储会议纪要中常用的所谓计数术语中，"许多"（Ma ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging hawkish consensus among candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, focusing on the need to limit the central bank's balance sheet, contrasting sharply with President Trump's calls for lower interest rates [1][3][4]. Group 1: Candidates' Stance - Candidates for the next Federal Reserve chair, including Kevin Warsh and Michelle Bowman, express concerns over the current balance sheet size exceeding $6 trillion, advocating for a reduction to create space for lowering short-term interest rates without triggering inflation [4][5]. - Warsh has consistently argued for limiting the central bank's size over the past 15 years, suggesting that reducing the balance sheet could allow for lower interest rates without inflationary consequences [4][6]. Group 2: Trump's Contradictory Position - President Trump's public pressure for lower interest rates conflicts with the candidates' focus on balance sheet reduction, highlighting a tension between his desire to stimulate borrowing and the candidates' caution regarding market intervention [5][6]. - Trump's past comments, such as his 2018 tweet urging the Fed to stop reducing its balance sheet, illustrate his concern over liquidity in financing markets, raising questions about his true stance on the Fed's influence [5][6]. Group 3: Policy Logic Behind Balance Sheet Reduction - The candidates' calls for balance sheet reduction stem from Republican concerns about the long-term effects of quantitative easing (QE), which is seen as a tool that disrupts market discipline and exacerbates wealth inequality [6][7][9]. - Critics argue that QE has led to increased government spending and has artificially inflated asset prices, contributing to wealth disparity [8][9]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Future Decisions - The Federal Reserve plans to halt balance sheet reduction by December 1 to prevent liquidity issues in the financial system, a decision supported by key economic advisors [11]. - Future actions by the Fed will depend on the economic landscape, with indications that QE may still be considered if significant risks to employment and price stability arise [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the future role of the Federal Reserve is intensifying as potential successors to Chairman Powell express concerns about the central bank's large balance sheet, which may contradict President Trump's desire for lower interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates' Perspectives - A consensus among candidates is forming around limiting the Federal Reserve's market interventions, with a general belief that the Fed's balance sheet, exceeding $6 trillion, is too large [2]. - Candidates like Kevin Warsh and Michelle Bowman advocate for a smaller balance sheet, contrasting sharply with Trump's push for lower borrowing costs [1][3]. Group 2: Trump's Contradictory Position - Trump's focus on lowering interest rates to alleviate federal debt and stimulate mortgage lending conflicts with candidates' emphasis on reducing the Fed's market influence [3]. - An example of this contradiction occurred in December 2018 when Trump urged the Fed to halt its $50 billion monthly balance sheet reduction, fearing it would drain liquidity from critical financing markets [3]. Group 3: Policy Logic Behind Balance Sheet Reduction - Candidates' calls for reducing the balance sheet stem from long-standing Republican concerns about quantitative easing (QE) [4]. - Kevin Warsh argues that reducing the balance sheet could create room for lowering short-term rates without triggering inflation, a view not universally accepted [4]. - Michelle Bowman believes a smaller balance sheet would provide more flexibility to respond to future economic shocks [4]. - Treasury Secretary Bessent, involved in the selection process, emphasizes the need to reduce the Fed's distorting market influence, although he advocates for cautious future asset purchases rather than immediate contraction [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Decision-Making - Regardless of the debate's outcome, the short-term market trajectory appears set, with the Fed planning to halt balance sheet reduction by December 1 to prevent liquidity issues [6]. - Stephen Miran, a current Fed governor, supports this decision and indicates that the Fed may still consider using QE when faced with significant risks to employment and price stability [6]. - The next Fed chair, appointed after Powell's term ends in May, may have to utilize all available policy tools in the event of an economic downturn, adding uncertainty to the market [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's potential bond-buying is aimed at technical management of bank reserves rather than a broad monetary easing strategy [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its balance sheet, leading to tightening market liquidity, particularly since October, prompting institutions to frequently use repurchase agreements [3]. - The Federal Reserve's asset size has decreased by $2.2 trillion since June 2022, reducing its GDP ratio from 35% to 21%, making it reasonable to halt the balance sheet reduction [5]. - The Federal Reserve's goal is to maintain smooth market operations by intervening before reserves reach critical levels, thereby reducing the likelihood of liquidity crises [6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The bond-buying may not immediately lead to a rebound in yields but could prevent further declines, reflecting a cautious external environment [5]. - There is a risk that market participants may misinterpret the Federal Reserve's bond purchases as a signal of a new easing cycle, which could lead to premature capital flow changes [6][8]. - The Federal Reserve aims to avoid miscommunication similar to the European Central Bank's experience, where reinvestment actions were misinterpreted as easing, causing increased volatility [8]. Group 3: Long-term Considerations - The strategy of providing liquidity in advance reflects the Federal Reserve's emphasis on the resilience of the financial system, which is crucial for preventing economic downturns [16]. - However, prolonged high reserve levels may lead to market dependency on central bank liquidity, potentially undermining risk pricing capabilities [16]. - The Federal Reserve's bond-buying serves as a technical measure that highlights the importance of liquidity management in influencing market sentiment and expectations [16].

Core Points - The Federal Reserve may soon need to expand its balance sheet through asset purchases to meet liquidity demands in the banking system [1][2] - The Fed has officially ended its three-year balance sheet reduction process, which began in 2022, reversing the large-scale asset purchases made during the pandemic [2] - The current balance sheet level is stabilized at approximately $6.6 trillion, following signals that the balance sheet reduction has been sufficient [2] Group 1 - Williams indicated that the Fed will begin a gradual asset purchase process when bank reserves drop from "slightly above adequate" to "adequate" levels [1] - Analysts expect the Fed may start expanding its holdings through asset purchases in the first quarter of next year [1] - Williams emphasized that purchasing bonds for maintaining adequate liquidity is a natural extension of the adequate reserves strategy and does not indicate a change in monetary policy stance [1] Group 2 - Williams is closely monitoring various market indicators related to the federal funds market, repo market, and payments to assess reserve demand [3] - He noted that determining when the Fed reaches the necessary reserve levels to inject funds into the system is quite challenging [3] - Recent pressures in the repo market and signs of reserves moving from "ample" to "adequate" suggest that reaching adequate reserve levels may not be far off [3]