截至收盘，沪银期货主力合约涨超5%，续创历史新高。 平安证券指出，展望2026年，结合宏观与基本面，三条主线有望主导有色板块表现：1）美元信用弱化 及美联储降息有望持续，黄金等贵金属货币属性及金融属性持续计价，同时弱美元提供工业金属向上驱 动。2）供给收缩加速为工业金属基本面核心演绎逻辑，表现在不同金属面临的上游资源约束或中游产 能瓶颈。3）需求新增长极驱动弹性释放，供给出清结束背景下，能源金属基本面改善显著。建议关注 成本优势突出，未来几年内享有量增的各赛道企业：赤峰黄金、山东黄金、洛阳钼业、天山铝业、云铝 股份、神火股份、兴业银锡，锡业股份、中矿资源、华友钴业。 中银证券认为，黄金仍处上升通道，但当前处于加速上行后的高位震荡阶段，后续行情的催化关键在 于"实际利率下行"与"美元走弱"能否形成共振。相比之下，白银的短期确定性更强：当前处于历史高位 的"金银比"蕴含着较大的修复空间，而光伏等工业领域需求增长为银价提供了支撑，较低的库存水平使 其价格短期弹性或优于黄金。 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The weakening of the US dollar credit remains the core logic for gold pricing in 2025, with a notable negative correlation between gold prices and the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves [11][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle into 2026, which may support gold prices, especially with concerns over the independence of monetary policy due to potential changes in leadership [13][15] - The long-term trend of weakening US dollar credit is not expected to change, with the US fiscal deficit projected to reach 6.9% of GDP in 2024, indicating ongoing structural issues in the US fiscal system [16][17] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Supply constraints for copper are expected to intensify, with significant disruptions in overseas copper mining projects leading to a projected decrease in output by over 100,000 tons in 2025 [23][24] - The demand for copper is anticipated to grow significantly due to the rise of AI and data centers, with each MW of installed capacity requiring approximately 27 tons of copper [27][28] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by a weak dollar and continued rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to drive copper prices upward [29][31] Group 3: Energy Metals - The supply of lithium and cobalt is expected to improve significantly due to the end of overseas capacity clearances and the implementation of supply constraint policies by major producing countries [33] - The demand for energy metals is projected to benefit from the resilience of battery technologies and the growth of the energy storage sector, leading to a positive supply-demand dynamic [33][34] Group 4: Tin - The supply of tin is tightening due to regulatory changes in Indonesia and ongoing production disruptions in Myanmar, with exports from Indonesia declining by approximately 20% year-on-year [45][46] - The global demand for refined tin is expected to grow, particularly in the electronics sector, driven by high semiconductor sales and the increasing use of tin solder in AI and high-performance computing applications [51]

国联民生证券研报指出，经济数据持续发布后，美联储部分官员释放12月降息信号，支撑贵金属价格反 弹，未来在央行购金+美元信用弱化主线下，继续看好金银价格上涨。此前降息预期过于悲观，随着美 联储官员释放"鸽派"信号，12月降息预期抬升，降息预期从不足4成回升至超过8成。白银海内外库存加 速去化，或迎来逼仓行情。中长期看，央行购买黄金+美元信用弱化为主线，持续看好金银价格中枢上 移。 12月1日，沪深两市震荡上行，盘面上，贵金属板块集体拉升。截至10点15分，有色金属 ETF(512400.SH)涨3.52%，白银有色涨停10%，江西铜业、兴业银锡涨超9%。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 整体而言，在供给刚性、新兴需求扩张及流动性改善的多重驱动下，中证申万有色金属指数估值分位数 处于近10年较低水平，板块中长期配置价值依然稳固，建议关注有色金属ETF(512400.SH)。 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 新能源&有色组行业贵金属年报 贵金属的黄金时代 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 11 月 30 日 陈思捷 从业资格号 F3080232 投资咨询号 Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号 F3046665 投资咨询号 Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号 F03139777 投资咨询号 Z0021579 王育武 从业资格号 F03114162 投资咨询号 Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 贵金属年度报告 2025-11-30 贵金属的黄金时代 研究院 新能源&有色组 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：wangyuwu@ ...

当前有色金属板块的短期回调主要受美联储降息预期反复及部分资金获利了结影响，但在美联储降息周 期推动美元流动性转向、中美财政政策协同发力制造业与新基建的背景下，工业金属需求获得支撑，而 黄金也在美元信用边际弱化中凸显其配置价值。分板块看，贵金属短期因美国就业数据分歧而承压，但 中长期全球央行购金及美元信用弱化趋势仍将推动金价中枢上移；工业金属中的铜、铝在供应约束与需 求回暖下呈现去库态势；能源金属如锂、钴则受益于动力电池和储能需求旺盛、以及刚果（金）钴出口 受限等因素，价格具备上行动力。整体而言，在供给刚性、新兴需求扩张及流动性改善的多重驱动下， 中证申万有色金属指数估值分位数处于近10年较低水平，板块中长期配置价值依然稳固，建议关注有色 金属ETF(512400.SH)。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 11月26日，沪深两市震荡上行，通信设备板块涨幅居前。截至10点，有色金属ETF(512400.SH)涨 0.36%，华友钴业涨1.67%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a significant decline, primarily influenced by the sharp drop in lithium carbonate prices, creating a potential opportunity for investors to consider undervalued segments within the industry [1] Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Summary - The non-ferrous metal sector saw a substantial decline of 6.75% last week, with a single-day drop of 5.26% on November 21 [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have decreased, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut dropping from 42.9% on November 17 to 35.4% on November 20 [1] - Some investors believe the sector may continue to face weakness, making it difficult to identify investment opportunities [1] Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Summary - The electrolytic aluminum sector may have been unfairly punished, as the leading companies' stock offerings do not impact the overall supply-demand balance or profitability [2] - Current valuations for companies like Tianshan Aluminum have fallen to around 8.5 times historical lows, while dividend yields have risen to approximately 6%, providing defensive support for the sector [2] - The sector is expected to benefit from increased industrial metal demand due to U.S. fiscal expansion in 2026, with potential price increases driven by overseas demand [2] Gold Sector Summary - Short-term gold prices are expected to remain volatile due to fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's December rate cut [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by weakening U.S. dollar credit and increasing government debt, which reached $38.37 trillion as of November 20, up by $0.176 trillion since November 13 [3] - U.S. fiscal spending is anticipated to boost demand in the non-ferrous metal sector, potentially raising metal prices and benefiting gold prices in the medium term [3] Investment Recommendations - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is recommended for its improved cost structure and potential for volume and price growth in 2026 [4] - Other notable companies include Yun Aluminum (000807.SZ), Zhongfu Industrial (600595.SH), and Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ) [4] - In the gold sector, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) is recommended due to its improving gold production and accelerating performance [4] - Additional companies to watch include Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) and Shanjin International (000975.SZ) [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are currently fluctuating around $4063 per ounce, reflecting an 18.2% increase since the beginning of the year, driven by a weakening dollar credit, expanding supply-demand gap, and normalized geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The dollar index is strengthening, which is a major short-term pressure on gold prices [2] - The USD/CNY exchange rate is fluctuating between 7.10 and 7.11, with a slight upward shift in the short-term oscillation center [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has decreased to 35.1%, indicating a weakening market expectation for Fed easing policies, which directly undermines gold's inflation and interest rate sensitivity [2] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term pressures from the dollar, the long-term logic for gold price increases remains solid due to a clear trend of Fed rate cuts and a low-interest-rate environment [2] - Central banks worldwide are continuing to purchase gold amid a de-dollarization trend, providing long-term support for gold prices [2] - Recent significant inflows into gold ETFs signal a positive shift in the funding landscape [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - Global physical gold demand remains weak, particularly in major Asian markets, with India and China showing no significant growth in jewelry and investment demand due to multiple influencing factors [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of $3900 to $4150 per ounce, with key support and resistance levels identified [3][4][5][6] - Key support levels include the $4040-$4050 area and the psychological level of $4000, while resistance levels are at $4100 and the $4130-$4150 range, which could indicate a trend change if breached [3][4][5][6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a recent decline, driven by geopolitical tensions, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases, despite uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fell below $4,000 but rebounded, with gold stocks ETF rising nearly 2% and the Hua Xia Gold ETF increasing by 1.2% [1] - COMEX gold saw a four-day decline, totaling a 3.4% drop, before a V-shaped reversal occurred, with spot gold and New York futures both surpassing $4,080 [1] - The recent market correction was attributed to overbought conditions and tightening liquidity, with COMEX gold experiencing a 6% decline from October 21 to November 18 [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs set a gold price target of $4,440 for Q1 2026, while Morgan Stanley predicts a rise to $4,500 by mid-2026 [1] - Despite uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve's December rate cut, the initiation of a rate-cutting cycle remains unchanged, and market liquidity is expected to improve with the U.S. government reopening and the cessation of balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1] Group 3: Investment Trends - There was a significant net inflow into gold ETFs, with a net inflow of 1.777 billion yuan into the SGE gold 9999 tracking ETF, and the Hua Xia Gold ETF seeing a net inflow of 138 million yuan over 14 consecutive trading days, totaling 824 million yuan [1] - The Hua Xia Gold ETF (518850) has a low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2% and allows T+0 trading, while the gold stock ETF (159562) also has a 0.2% fee and focuses on gold and copper stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices rebounded after a decline, driven by geopolitical tensions, weakening dollar credit, and central bank gold purchases, despite recent market corrections [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold prices fell below $4000 but rebounded, with COMEX gold experiencing a four-day decline totaling 3.4% before a V-shaped recovery, surpassing $4080 [1] - The SPDR Gold Shares ETF saw a nearly 2% increase, while the Huaxia Gold ETF rose by 1.2% [1] - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) has seen a net inflow of 1.38 billion yuan over 14 consecutive trading days, totaling 8.24 billion yuan since the price peak on October 21 [1] Group 2: Future Projections - Goldman Sachs set a gold price target of $4440 for Q1 2026, while Morgan Stanley predicts a rise to $4500 by mid-2026 [1] - The Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cuts and the reopening of the U.S. government are expected to improve market liquidity [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) is noted for its low comprehensive fee rate of 0.2% and allows T+0 trading [2] - The Gold Stock ETF (159562), which tracks SSH gold stocks, has a similar fee structure and focuses on gold and copper stocks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The divergence in interest rate decisions among Federal Reserve officials is impacting gold prices, leading to a decline in COMEX gold futures and related ETFs [1] Group 1: Gold Market Performance - COMEX gold futures opened lower and are currently trading around $4028 per ounce, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Gold ETF 华夏 (518850) has seen a net inflow of 686 million yuan over the past 13 trading days, despite a 0.74% drop today [1] - Other related ETFs, such as 黄金股 ETF (159562) and 有色金属 ETF 基金 (516650), have also experienced declines of 1.2% and 1.56% respectively [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - There is increasing disagreement among Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate decisions, with at least three officials expected to oppose maintaining the current rates in the upcoming December meeting [1] - If the Federal Reserve were to cut rates by 25 basis points, the opposition could also reach at least three votes [1] Group 3: Market Analysis and Future Outlook - Longcheng Futures indicates that the recent pullback in gold prices follows a period of strong performance, driven by signals of a weak U.S. economy and expectations of Federal Reserve easing [1] - Following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, market expectations for rate cuts have decreased, contributing to the recent decline in gold prices [1] - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range, while medium to long-term support remains from risks of economic recession, fiscal expansion, and weakening dollar credibility [1]